Resiliente Systeme Zusammenfassung PDF

Grundlagen resilienter Systeme Konzepte, Metriken, Modelle Stefan Hiermaier Prof. Dr.-Ing. habil. Gips-SchŸle Professur fŸr Nachhaltige Ingenieursysteme 18. April 2024  Vorlesung Sommersemester 2024 § Form...

Grundlagen resilienter Systeme Konzepte, Metriken, Modelle Stefan Hiermaier Prof. Dr.-Ing. habil. Gips-SchŸle Professur fŸr Nachhaltige Ingenieursysteme 18. April 2024  Vorlesung Sommersemester 2024 § Form - In PrŠsenz. § Sprache - Deutsch mit vielen Folien auf Englisch § PrŸfung - Schriftlich Ð Online Multiple Choice - Zusammenfassung am Ende des Semesters § Unterlagen - Kommen als pdf spŠtestens bis zum Abend vor der Vorlesung § Literatur - Kein Standardwerk; im Laufe der Vorlesung verwendete Literatur wird jeweils angegeben 2  Inhalte § Konzepte - Risiko, StabilitŠt, Sicherheit, Robustheit, Resilienz § Metriken - Quantitative Ma§e fŸr die Konzepte § Modelle - Simulationsmethoden 3  Resilienz und Nachhaltigkeit Eine Definition von Nachhaltigkeit (Brundtland Report) The UN World Commission on Environment and Development. >Our common future 㗽% Enhancement for objects with 㗇 14  Risiko Ermittlung und Umgang mit Risiko Analyse 3 Eintrittswahrscheinlichkeit (P) und Schadensausmaß (C) werden ermittelt. Bewertung 3 Das resultierende Risiko R=PxC wird mit dem zulässigen Risikowert verglichen. Management 3 Wenn das tatsächliche Risiko höher ist als das zulässige, werden Maßnahmen zur Reduzierung des Risikos ermittelt. 15 Siebte Sitzung 16  Risiko und Resilienz Wo sind die Schnittstellen? Example: resilience phases and risk assessment § Prepare covers identification of possible events and risk assessment § Prevent covers reduction of frequency of non-intended events guided by risk assessment § Protect covers reduction of consequences in case of events guided by risk assessment CRISIS èRisk management can be applied to single phases and combinations 17 Risiko und Resilienz EU-Projekt RAIN-EX 18 Risiko und Resilienz EU-Projekt RAIN-EX Definition der wichtigsten Begriffe zum Umgang mit Risiko-Management im Kontext Transport-Infrastruktur. 19 Risiko und Resilienz EU-Projekt RAIN-EX Definition der wichtigsten Begriffe zum Umgang mit Risiko-Management im Kontext Transport-Infrastruktur. 20 Risiko und Resilienz EU-Projekt RAIN-EX Definition der wichtigsten Begriffe zum Umgang mit Risiko-Management im Kontext Transport-Infrastruktur. 21 Risiko und Resilienz EU-Projekt RAIN-EX 22 Risiko und Resilienz EU-Projekt RAIN-EX 23 Risiko und Resilienz EU-Projekt RAIN-EX 24 Risiko und Resilienz EU-Projekt RAIN-EX 25 Risiko und Resilienz EU-Projekt RAIN-EX 26 Risiko und Resilienz EU-Projekt RAIN-EX 27 Risiko und Resilienz EU-Projekt RAIN-EX 28 Risiko und Resilienz EU-Projekt RAIN-EX 29 Risiko und Resilienz EU-Projekt RAIN-EX The RAINEX methodology is a risk-based approach that follows four major steps. In the first step (criticality analysis), the transport network under investigation has to be defined and assessed based on a road link performance analysis. The size of the network to be investigated depends on the scope of the study. This step is carried out at 8network level9 and its output is a set of critical network sections to be assessed in the subsequent steps 30 Risiko und Resilienz EU-Projekt RAIN-EX The RAINEX methodology is a risk-based approach that follows four major steps. In the second step, an exposure tree analysis has to be conducted for all hazard processes to identify the relevant local phenomena for each asset. Furthermore, this serves as a filter for the more detailed subsequent steps. 31 Risiko und Resilienz EU-Projekt RAIN-EX The RAINEX methodology is a risk-based approach that follows four major steps. Based on the set of assets identified, a detailed exposure assessment using the predefined exposure matrices has to be carried out for each local phenomenon identified. 32 Risiko und Resilienz EU-Projekt RAIN-EX The RAINEX methodology is a risk-based approach that follows four major steps. The third step focuses on assessing the vulnerability of each exposed asset using vulnerability matrices. The result of the two steps (2+3) is a quantifiable assessment using a scoring system to categorize the individual assets. 33 Risiko und Resilienz EU-Projekt RAIN-EX The RAINEX methodology is a risk-based approach that follows four major steps. These two numerical values are used for the final step, the risk assessment. First, both the exposure and the vulnerability score are put into an exposure- vulnerability matrix. The impact of the local phenomena on the asset is also used as input for the consequence assessment. 34 Risiko und Resilienz EU-Projekt RAIN-EX The RAINEX methodology is a risk-based approach that follows four major steps. The output of this method is a risk categorization of each asset with respect to all local phenomena. 35 Risiko und Resilienz EU-Projekt RAIN-EX & 36 Risiko und Resilienz EU-Projekt RAIN-EX & 37 Risiko und Resilienz EU-Projekt RAIN-EX In the example illustrated, the investigated bridge has an exposure score of 3.0 and a vulnerability score of 2.8, which means that for the specific asset the impact from log jam is at a medium level. 38 Risiko und Resilienz EU-Projekt RAIN-EX 39 Risiko und Resilienz Extremwetter in Deutschland, 15. Juli 2021, FAZ Heftiger Regen sorgte in vielen Teilen Nordrhein-Westfalens und in Rheinland-Pfalz sowie im Saarland für Überschwemmungen, Hochwasser und Stromausfälle. In vielen Regionen wurden Straßen überspült, Keller liefen voll und der Bahn- und Straßenverkehr war gestört. Auch Belgien und Luxemburg ist vom Hochwasser betroffen. Der extreme Dauerregen sollte zwar laut Vorhersage des Deutschen Wetterdienstes (DWD) in der Nacht zum Donnerstag nachlassen. Doch vielerorts dürfte es nun an die Aufräumarbeiten gehen. 40 Risiko und Resilienz Cyber Resilience Amazon Google 41  Risiko und Resilienz Cyber Resilience The good news is that it9s not a real disaster4though it could have been. Instead, it9s an exercise designed to teach a company how to adapt to the inevitable: system failure. Things break; disaster happens; failure is real. Although no one4perhaps least of all software developers and systems engineers4likes to believe they can9t prevent failure, the key to preparing for it is first to accept it. In the early 2000s, Amazon created GameDay, a program designed to increase resilience by purposely injecting major failures into critical systems semi-regularly to discover flaws https://lloydslist.maritimeintelligence.informa.com/LL1136138/Cyber- and subtle dependencies. Basically, a GameDay exercise tests security-means-more-than-compliance a company9s systems, software, and people in the course of preparing for a response to a disastrous event. 42  Risiko und Resilienz Cyber Resilience JESSE ROBBINS More than anything else, I9ve learned that the key to building resilient systems is accepting that failure happens. There9s just no getting around it. That applies to the software discipline, as well as to the systems management and architectural disciplines. It also applies to managing people. It9s only after you9ve accepted the reality that failure is inevitable that you can begin the journey toward a truly resilient system. At the core of every resilience program4whether it9s what you find at Google, Facebook, Etsy, Flickr, Yahoo, or Amazon4is the understanding that whenever you set out to engineer a system at Internet scale, the best you can hope for is to build a reliable software platform on top of components that are completely https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2020/11/21/europes-cyber-resilience/ unreliable. That puts you in an environment where complex failures are both inevitable and unpredictable. 43  Risiko und Resilienz Cyber Resilience KRIPA KRISHNAN We9ve learned a few things as well. The most important of those lessons is that an untested disaster recovery plan isn9t really a plan at all. We also know now that if doing something is hard, repetition is going to help make it easier. At Google scale, even if there9s only a fraction of a one-percent chance of a failure occurring, that means it9s a failure likely to occur multiple times. We9ve also learned that real success doesn9t come from just running a GameDay test once a year but instead from getting teams to test their services internally all year round. That said, GameDay gives us an opportunity to test some less-exercised links. https://publicspectrum.co/cyber-resilience-security-virtual-summit- 2020/ 44 Resilienz und Nachhaltigkeit Resilienz des Energieversorgungssystems Importance of Resilience for Power Systems § Events and developments influencing power system resilience § Vulnerabilities resulting from energy transition Ways to Enhance Power System Resilience § Generation, Transmission, Distribution, Use 45 Resilienz und Nachhaltigkeit Resilienz des Energieversorgungssystems In examining the electricity sector and trends related to natural gas prices, load growth, energy policy, and the penetration of distributed generation and demand response, EPRI and its members determined that the power system needs to be more resilient, flexible, and connected. 46 Resilienz und Nachhaltigkeit Resilienz des Energieversorgungssystems 47 Resilienz und Nachhaltigkeit Resilienz des Energieversorgungssystems Extreme Weather Impact on Growing Variable Generation A Carnegie Mellon study concluded that in vulnerable areas now being considered, nearly one-half of offshore wind turbines would likely be destroyed by severe weather in a 20-year period. To avoid high-wind damage, wind turbine designs include turbine brakes, blade feathering, active yaw systems to turn the turbine into the wind, heavy towers, and strong foundations. 48 Resilienz und Nachhaltigkeit Resilienz des Energieversorgungssystems Extreme Weather Impact on Growing Variable Generation Another consideration is that wind and solar generation cannot generate power prior to, during, and immediately after severe storms due to cloud cover. Wind generators may need to be shut down immediately prior to and during severe weather to minimize the risk of damage, and remain offline immediately after the storm while inspectors ensure that turbines are undamaged and can operate safely. This is in contrast to traditional generation, such as coal-fired, natural-gas fired, and nuclear power, which can in most cases continue to generate during severe storms. In the absence of electric energy storage for wind and solar generation, such losses of generation reduce the overall capacity available to system dispatchers. This becomes an increasing challenge as the percentage of renewable generation increases. 49 Resilienz und Nachhaltigkeit Resilienz des Energieversorgungssystems Die Gleichzeitigkeit von Energiewende und Klimawandel stellt die Energieversorgung vor ungekannte Herausforderungen. Resilienz ist das Konzept schlechthin, dieser komplexen Gemengelage aus Bedrohungen, Anfälligkeiten und Verwundbarkeiten zu begegnen. Im Dreiklang aus Monitoring, Communication und Governance stellt ein Resilienzmonitor mit Sensorkomponenten, Simulationskapazitäten und Handlungsempfehlungen eine wünschenswerte Plattform für resiliente Energieversorgungsnetze dar. Das Fraunhofer EMI leitet ein Konsortium von Instituten, das sich mit der Entwicklung eines Resilienzmonitors beschäftigt. 50 Resilienz und Nachhaltigkeit Resilienzmonitor für Energieversorgungssysteme 51 KONTAKT Prof. Dr.-Ing. habil. Stefan Hiermaier [email protected] Tel. 0761 2714-101 www.inatech.de 52