Conflicts and Peace: Global Perspectives PDF

Gandhi Smriti and Darshan Samiti Indira Gandhi National Open University School of Social Sciences BGP-003 Conflicts and Peace: Global Perspectives Certificate Programme in Peace Studies and Conflict Management Expert Committee Prof. D. Gopal (Chairman) Prof. Abdul Nafey Prof. Anurag Joshi Head, Centre for Gandhi and Centre for American, Latin Faculty of Political Science Peace Studies Programme American and Canadian Studies SOSS, IGNOU Coordinator School of International Studies New Delhi SOSS, IGNOU Jawaharlal Nehru University Prof. S.V.S. Reddy New Delhi New Delhi Faculty of Political Science Prof. R.P. Mishra Prof. A.P. Vijapur SOSS, IGNOU Former Vice-Chancellor Head, Deptt. of Political New Delhi Allahabad University Science, Aligarh Muslim Prof. Jagpal Singh Allahabad University, Aligarh Faculty of Political Science Prof. RVR Chandrasekhar Rao Prof. R. S. Yadav SOSS, IGNOU Former Vice-Chancellor Professor & Chairman New Delhi Dr. B.R. Ambedkar Open Deptt. of Political Science Prof. A.S. Narang (Rtd.) University, Hyderabad Dean, Social Sciences Faculty of Political Science Kurukshetra University Ambassador R. Rajagopalan SOSS, IGNOU Kurukshetra Secretary, Association of Indian New Delhi Diplomats Prof. Sanjay Kumar Jha Prof. D. Gopal New Delhi Chairperson, School of Faculty of Political Science National Security Studies Prof. Chintamani Mahapatra SOSS, IGNOU School of International Studies Centre for Canadian, US and A New Delhi Central University of Gujarat Latin American Studies Gujarat School of International Studies Jawaharlal Nehru University New Delhi CPSCM Programme Coordinator: Prof. D. Gopal Course Coordinator(s) Co-coordinator Prof. D. Gopal Prof. A.S. Narang (Rtd.) Head, Centre for Gandhi and Faculty of Political Science Peace Studies SOSS, IGNOU Programme Coordinator New Delhi SOSS, IGNOU New Delhi Course Editor(s) Prof. D. Gopal Dr. Sailaja Gullapalli Head, Centre for Gandhi and Research Associate Peace Studies Gandhi Smriti & Darshan Samiti Programme Coordinator Rajghat SOSS, IGNOU Delhi New Delhi CPSCM-001 Course Development Team Prof. Samir Kumar Das (Unit 1) Dr. Yogesh Nair (Units 7&14) Professor of Political Science Colonel HQ 38 BRTF University of Kolkata Manali C/o 56 APO Himachal Pradesh Prof. Sanjay K. Jha (Unit 2) Professor & Dean Prof. R. S. Yadav (Units 8&9) School of International Studies Professor & Chairman Central University of Gujarat Deptt. of Political Science Gandhinagar, Gujarat Dean, Social Sciences Kurukshetra University Dr. Shraddha Nand Rai (Unit 3) Centre for Russian Prof. K. Savitri (Unit 11) Central Asian Studies RCAS/SIS Deptt. Of Political Science Jawaharlal Nehru University Jamia Millia Islamia, New Delhi New Delhi Dr. Amrita Dey (Unit 13) Prof. Jai Narain Sharma (Units 4&12) School of International Studies Former Chairman & Head Jawaharlal Nehru University Deptt. of Gandhian Studies New Delhi Panjab University, Chandigarh Dr. Salvin Paul (Unit 15) Dr. Pankaj Jha (Unit 5) Assistant Professor New Delhi Deptt. of Peace and Conflict Management School of Social Sciences Dr. Sailaja Gullapalli (Units 6&10) Sikkim University Research Associate Gandhi Smriti & Darshan Samiti Dr. Ashu Pasricha (Unit 16) Rajghat, Delhi Assistant Professor Deptt. Gandhian Studies Panjab University, Chandigarh Material Production Secretarial Assistance Shri Manjit Singh Shri Vijender Section Officer (Publication) Stenographer SOSS, IGNOU, New Delhi SOSS, IGNOU, New Delhi October, 2017 © Indira Gandhi National Open University, 2017 ISBN : 978-93-87237-33-9 All rights reserved. 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CONTENTS Page No. COURSE INTRODUCTION 7 BLOCK-I INTRODUCTION Unit 1 Conflicts in International Arena: An Overview 9 Unit 2 Changing Nature of International Conflict 22 Unit 3 From War to Dialogue: Emerging Approaches to Conflict Resolution 33 Unit 4 Non-Violent Initiative in Conflict Resolution 42 BLOCK-II SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS Unit 5 Globalisation and Its Implications for Peace 52 Unit 6 Global Warming and Climate Change 64 Unit 7 Conflict Over Resources 74 Unit 8 Terrorism 85 BLOCK-III METHODS OF CONFLICT RESOLUTIONS: GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES Unit 9 Coercive Settlement of Disputes 95 Unit 10 Pacific Settlement of Disputes 106 Unit 11 United Nations Peace Keeping Mission 116 Unit 12 Human Security 123 BLOCK-IV CASE STUDIES Unit 13 Border Disputes 134 Unit 14 Water Sharing Disputes 141 Unit 15 Ethnic Crisis 151 Unit 16 Migration and Dislocation 162 COURSE INTRODUCTION Conflict denotes a variety of meanings rooted in different contexts. Basically it has a negative connotation in that it evokes meanings essentially like disputes, disagreements, crisis, discord, friction, contest and in the extreme case, wars and other armed actions and reactions. Usually conflicts take place between the groups/ individuals that are in contrasting position to the other parties. The discord and disagreement often to lead to conflict thus becoming issue of contention. While some conflicts do get solved with sincere and genuine efforts, some often escalate into aggressive proportions. Conflicts in international arena include conflicts between nation states, competition over resources—both at global and regional level—differences/discord between or among nation states and other political organisations over issues as wide as political, ethnic or religious conflicts. Some of them have cross-border dimensions; some struggles are against repressive regimes and/or struggle for creation of new nation states. International conflicts were mostly understood in terms of armed conflicts or wars between two countries or a group of countries. Since wars were important phenomenan in international relations, the primary concern of scholars remained studying causes of war and conditions for peace. Of late, the understanding of conflicts includes conflict between state and non-state actors or between non-state actors. This development took place primarily in the post-Cold War era. With the changing perspectives of war, new perspectives and definitions emerged regarding conflicts. These suggest that any conflict is a product of prevailing structure of international system, relationship between its constituent units and social, political, economic and technological factors influencing state behaviour. Further, wars were traditionally understood as having territorial disputes as the primary concern. The modern wars, in contract, are fought over resources, displacement of opponent regimes, and ironically to ensure human rights. Wars are being waged to establish peace and democracy too. Thus the reasons have become manifold if one intends to wage a war. Additionally, not only states are involved in these wars; even non-state actors too are getting involve in these wars. In contemporary conflicts, the non-state actors are increasingly becoming fatal, with access to advance technology and modern equipment. The non-state actors have usually cross border linkage in terms of support structures, sources of finance, state support, arms procurement and safe haven. In many of the countries, internal conflicts are often exacerbated and sustained through this cross-border linkage. Many conflicts that are now currently active in the underdeveloped parts of the world are characterised by a blurred demarcation between international and external sources and actors. Furthermore, there are multiple causal factors and dynamics, reflected in changing goals, actors and targets. Finally, these conflicts do not show clear starting and terminating points. In today’s age of globalisation, poor people as well as the underdeveloped nations are getting marginalised to a great extent. It is true that global economic integration is creating opportunities for people around the world, but it is also leading to widening the gaps between the poorest and richest countries. Many of the poorest countries are marginalised from the growing opportunities of expanding international trade, investment and in the use of new technologies. Thus, in the contemporary times, globalisation is emerging as a major cause of conflict at various levels – intrastate and interstate. The identification and understanding of sources and causes of conflict is definitely a key factor in reducing the incidence of conflicts. If the sources and core causes are eradicated and grievances of conflicting parties are addressed, conflict resolution will become a much easier process. This course on ‘Conflicts and Peace: Global Perspectives’ enables the learners to understand the numerous facets of peace and conflict and how these are understood and acted upon in the other parts of the world. Block I Introduction touches upon the various aspects of conflict from the international arena to what can be done to achieve peace non-violently. Unit 1 entitled Conflicts in International Arena: An Overview makes the learner aware of the meaning, types, nature and forms of conflict in international arena and also its various manifestations and emerging trends. Unit 2 entitled Changing Nature of International Conflict touches upon the aspects of patterns of contemporary international conflicts and also the convergence of international and non-international conflicts. Unit 3 titled From War to Dialogue: Emerging Approaches to Conflict Resolution makes us aware of the necessity of non-violent alternatives for dispute resolution, and efficacy of methods of dialogue and negotiation. Unit 4 titled Non-violent Initiative in Conflict Resolution touches upon the non-violent initiatives, methods and Gandhian approach to conflict resolution. Block II of this course titled Socio-Economic and Environmental Conflicts covers the topics as wide as globalisation and its various aspects and consequences. Unit 5 entitled Globalisation and its Implications for Peace makes us aware of the nature and features of globalisation, contribution of globalisation towards peace, prosperity and development among nations. Unit 6 titled Global Warming and Climate Change discusses the concept and consequences of global climatic changes, factors that are responsible for deteriorating climate all over the world, and the preventive measures that can be taken to mitigate the negative effects of globalisation. Unit 7 entitled Conflict over Resources makes us understand the importance of resources and how they can be sustained, and also the relation between ecology and resources conflict. Unit 8 entitled Terrorism touches upon the meaning and basic characteristics of terrorism, different types and strategies and also the efforts to mitigate terrorism. Block III of this course titled Methods of Conflict Resolutions: Global Perspectives discusses the methods related to conflict resolution. Unit 9 entitled Coercive Settlement of Disputes discusses the meaning, types, problems and limitations of coercive methods. Unit 10 entitled Pacific Settlement of Disputes makes us understand the concept and meaning of pacifism, background history of pacifism, various conventions and their importance to this day related to pacifism. Unit 11 entitled United Nations Peace Keeping Mission examines the importance of peacekeeping, nature and features of peacekeeping, and a critical appraisal of this method. Unit 12 entitled Human Security tells us why Human Security is important, its meaning, definition, principles and approaches and how this concept has assumed significance in the international arena. Block IV discusses the Case Studies of conflict and its resolutions. Unit 13 titled Border Conflicts enables us to understand the meaning and origin of the concept of borders; development of states with defined borders and the emergence of conflicts because of dissented borders. Unit 14 titled Water Sharing Disputes comprehensively touches on the aspects of water sharing and its importance as a resource, laws pertaining to water sharing, and the socio-political compulsions of water sharing disputes and how they can be resolved peacefully. Unit 15 titled Ethnic Crisis explains to the reader the meaning and functions of ethnic identities, causes, scope and challenges of ethnic identity. Unit 16 entitled Migration and Dislocation makes us understand the reasons behind migration, stages and types of migration, and consequences of migration and dislocation. The settling of these tumultuous problems is extremely necessary if we are to live a world characterised by peace and harmony and a world devoid of conflicts. UNIT 1 CONFLICTS IN INTERNATIONAL ARENA: AN OVERVIEW Structure 1.1 Introduction Aims and Objectives 1.2 Meaning and Types of Conflicts in International Arena 1.2.1 International Humanitarian Laws and Conflicts 1.2.2 Definitions Offered by Scholars and Research Institutes 1.3 Nature and Patterns of Contemporary Conflicts 1.3.1 Changing Nature of Conflicts 1.3.2 Patterns of Conflict in International Arena 1.4 Conflicts in International Arena: Major Manifestations and Trends 1.4.1 Sub-Conventional Wars: Growing Importance of Non-State Actors 1.4.2 Religious Extremism and Terrorism 1.5 Summary 1.6 Terminal Questions Suggested Readings 1.1 INTRODUCTION In our day-to-day life, the word conflict denotes a variety of activities or emotions such as dispute, disagreement, discord, friction, fight, debate, argument, contest, war, and other similar acts. Conflicts occur when the beliefs or actions of a group or its members are either resisted by or unacceptable to one or more members of another group. The origin of the word ‘conflict’ can be traced back to the Latin word confligere, which means to strike together. However, in course of time the meaning and scope of the word ‘conflict’ evolved to incorporate many other dimensions, reflecting sociological, psychological, economic and political aspects of human lives. Literature in Social Sciences and International Relations deal with these varied dimensions of conflict. Therefore, scholars have treated ‘conflict’ as a very complex concept with divergent definitions and perspectives. The reason for divergent perspective on the subject is that the meaning and nature of conflict is context centric. Since the beginning of human civilisation, when people started living in groups, the nature and meaning of conflict have always been conditioned by historical context, nature of social and political organisation, relationship between and among individuals and groups in that particular socio-political setting and competition over resources and entitlement. Historically, all political and social organisations evolved through a complex process of engaging with conflicts and attempts to find ways to manage and resolve it. Therefore, the meaning, nature, dynamics and pattern of conflicts keep changing over a period of time. What is conflict? How does it affect our individual and collective lives? What is the meaning of the word in international arena? How do people, groups and sovereign states deal with conflict in the process of interaction among them and quest for an international system, where the impact of conflict is minimum? These are some of the questions that merit discussion when we study conflicts in international arena. 10 Conflicts and Peace : Global Perspectives Conflicts in international arena include conflicts between nation states, competition over resources—both at global and regional level—differences/discord between or among nation states and other political organisations over political issues, ethnic or religious conflicts with cross-border dimensions, struggle against repressive regimes and/or struggle for creation of new nation states. Traditionally, international conflicts were understood in terms of armed conflicts or wars between two countries or a group of countries. Since wars were important phenomenon in international relations, the primary concern of scholars remained studying causes of war and conditions for peace. Over a period of time, our understanding of conflicts expanded to include conflict between state and non- state actors or between non-state actors. In contemporary world order with increasing globalisation, connectivity, greater mobility of people, technology and finances, the distinction between intra-state and inter-state conflict is getting blurred. A large number of intra-state conflicts — inter-group or intra-society — within one country, with or without involvement of external players — has significant impact on regional or global security architecture. For example, terrorism, insurgency or secessionist movement within a particular state are increasingly assuming regional and international dimension. Additionally, a host of non-military conflicts on issues such as environment, health, water, development and trade, and issues affecting human security have come to dominate narrative of international conflicts. This is largely because of the fact that character and intensity of all above-mentioned manifestations of conflicts are determined by political, social, economic and strategic equilibrium both at the level of international system and within state. Any change in the equilibrium in any of these variables results in the change in the nature of conflicts. Aims and Objectives After reading this unit, you would be able to understand:  meaning and types of conflicts in International Arena;  nature and forms of contemporary conflicts; and  conflicts in International Arena and its major manifestations and emerging trends. 1.2 MEANING AND TYPES OF CONFLICTS IN INTERNATIONAL ARENA Historically, the literature on International Relations focused on inter-state armed conflicts or wars between or among countries as dominant form of international conflicts. ‘Wars’, as the famous strategic thinker Carl von Clausewitz put it, were an extension of politics, to achieve political objectives. These political objectives were often defined in terms of territorial expansion, ideology of states or control over resources. Since states are primary actors in international system, conflict and cooperation between states has been dominant theme for scholars engaged in the study of international system. It is not surprising, therefore, that the realist paradigm, for long, dominated our understanding on conflict and security. The realist view point on international conflicts is based on two major assumptions. First, states are prime actors in international system and international conflicts are conditioned by state’s quest for security against external threats. Secondly, these threats are primarily military in nature and require the building up of military capability because conflicts are integral part of international system. Given the absence of an international authority to ensure compliance, states rely on their own capabilities to ensure security. The Conflicts in International Arena: An Overview 11 ‘self-help system’ results in what realists call a ‘security dilemma’ which results in arms race that threaten overall security of the system (Kenneth Waltz, 1979, pp. 102-04). This realist worldview was heavily influenced by the existence of nuclear weapons, great power rivalry and the balance of power in the international system. However, scholars working on conflicts and wars were conscious of the fact that in changing international environment, any attempt to confine meaning of international conflicts to armed conflicts between two states or group of states would not capture the essence of the concept both in terms of evolving nature of conflict or its impact on regional or international security architecture. Perspectives and definitions offered by scholars and research institutes working on international conflicts reflect this concern. Nevertheless, considerable disagreement exists over how to define conflict and what constitutes international conflicts. Scholars and Institutes working in the area continue to work on developing definitions and categories of conflicts on the basis of parties involved in the conflict, intensity of conflicts, impact of conflicts and geo-political settings of conflict arena. Some of the prominent perspectives on conflicts in international arena are given below. 1.2.1 International Humanitarian Laws and Conflicts International humanitarian laws distinguish two types of conflicts, namely: International conflicts and non-International conflicts. International armed conflicts, commonly referred to as ‘war’ was understood as an armed conflict between two states and ‘non- international’ conflicts, i.e., civil war, as an armed conflict between a state and an internally located insurgent movement that had taken up arms. For long, internal armed conflicts or civil wars were seen as domestic concerns, outside the purview of international legal regimes because states were unwilling to allow international regulations in what they considered internal political issues. Legally speaking, no other type of armed conflict exists. However, the intensity, brutality and impact of many internal conflicts, particularly after the Second World War, underlined the necessity to review the laws of war to include non-international armed conflicts also. The International Committee of Red Cross presented a report in 1948, which recommended that the Geneva Conventions should apply international humanitarian law in cases of internal armed conflict also, especially cases of civil war, colonial conflicts, or war of religion, which may occur in the territory of one or more of the High Contracting Parties” (J. Pictet, 1960).1 However, the Geneva Conventions did not fully accept this proposal and adopted Common Article 3, which defines non-international armed conflict, as ‘armed conflict not of an international character occurring in the territory of one of the High Contracting Parties’. This Article was introduced primarily to regulate non-international armed conflicts. It is important to note that in comparison with the rest of the Geneva Conventions, with comprehensive regulation of armed conflict, this Article proposed a relatively mild regulation of such conflicts (Jed Odermatt, 2013). With the adoption of the Additional Protocols in 1977, a new category of international armed conflict was added. Under Additional Protocol I, an international armed conflict will exist in situations, “…in which people are fighting against colonial domination and alien occupation and against racist regimes in the exercise of their right of self-determination, as enshrined in the Charter of the United Nations and the Declaration of Principles of International Law concerning Friendly Relations and Co- operation among states in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations”. 1 The Geneva Conventions usually denotes the agreements of 1949, which comprises four tre aties and three additional protocols that establish the standards of international law for the humanitarian treatment of war. The agreements updated the terms of the first three treaties (1864, 1906, 1929), and added a fourth. 12 Conflicts and Peace : Global Perspectives 1.2.2 Definitions Offered by Scholars and Research Institutes Research institutes working on conflicts in international arena have taken a comprehensive view on conflicts in international arena defining conflicts on the basis of actors and annual casualties. Perspectives offered by some of the prominent Research Institutes and Scholars working on conflicts are given below: i) The Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University defines armed conflict as a situation where one state is involved in conflict with either another state or with a non-state actor in the form of an opposition organisation, which causes at least 25 fatalities in a calendar year; and wars, leading to at least 1000 battle-related deaths in a year (Wallenstein, & Sollenberg, 2001).2 In this definition, incompatibility is central to our understanding of conflict. Incompatibility is a disagreement between at least two parties where their demands cannot be met by the same resources at the same time. Such a disagreement is central to when social conflicts emerge, since an unlimited supply of a resource can satisfy all parties for all time (Wallenstein, 2007, p. 14). Within this framework, the UCDP identifies following categories of conflicts in contemporary international arena.  Inter-State Conflict between two or more governments  Intra-State Conflict between a government and non-governmental parties, with no interference with other countries;  Intra-State Conflict with foreign involvement, where the government side, the opposing side or both sides receive troop support from other government, that actively participate in the conflict;  Extra-systemic conflict between a state and non-state group outside its own territory. There are few such conflicts today as this category basically contains colonial conflicts;  Non-state conflicts between two organised armed groups, neither of which is the government of a state, which results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in a year;  One sided violence: The use of armed force by the government of a state or by a formally organised group against civilians which results in at least 25 deaths in a year. ii) The Heidelberg Institute for International Conflict Research (HIIK) defines conflict thus: “ A political conflict is a positional difference between at least two assertive and directly involved actors regarding values relevant to a society [the conflict items including (territory, secession, decolonisation, autonomy, system/ideology, national power, regional predominance, international power, resources, other)] which is carried out using observable and interrelated conflict measures that lie outside established regulatory procedures and threaten core state functions, the international order, or hold the prospect of doing so”.3 2 For a detailed discussion on typology of conflicts, see Themner, L and Wallerstein, P., “Armed Conflict, 1946-2013", Journal of Peace Research, vol. 51. No. 4 (2014), pp. 541-54 3 HIIK is an interdisciplinary research institute located at the Department of Political Science at the University of Heidelberg. Since 1991, the institute has been engaged in research and dissemination of knowledge on the causes, intensity, and course of interstate and intrastate political conflicts. Their annual publication, the Conflict Barometer is published annually and contains the current research results. The publication describes the recent trends in global conflicts development, escalations, and de-escalations of international conflicts. Conflicts in International Arena: An Overview 13 This definition presupposes the presence of following elements:  There must be at least two entities possessing intellectual capacity and vision, and who are capable of communicating. Such an entity is called an actor.  In order for the actors to sense incompatibility between their ideas and beliefs, there must be reciprocal actions and acts of communication between said actors. These actions and acts of communication are called measures.  A communicating act always refers to a specific issue; an action always refers to a certain object. The subject behind a measure is called item. For the purpose of defining the term political conflict more precisely, the three elements aforementioned shall be further defined. These elements are necessary requirements for the existence of a political conflict. iii) Quincy Wright, one of the earliest scholars to make a systematic study of war in international system provides a comprehensive definition to include political, ideological and legal dimensions of international armed conflicts or war. He says that war is a combination of four types of conflicts – physical conflict, political conflict, ideological conflict and legal conflict (Wright, 1990, pp. 22-23). According to him, war is manifested by the physical struggle of armies to occupy the same space, each seeking to annihilate, disarm, or capture the other; by the political struggle of nations to achieve policies against the resistance of others; by the ideological struggle of people to preserve or extend ways of life and value systems; and by the legal struggle of states to acquire titles, to vindicate claims, to prevent violence, or to punish offenders by recognised procedures of regulated violence (Wright, 1942, p. 698). iv) Singer defines conflict on the basis of political status of conflict parties. He makes a distinction between (a) interstate wars, (b) extra-systemic wars, but here adds two further classes of non-interstate conflict: (c) civil conflicts in which unlike (b) one protagonist may be ‘an insurgent or revolutionary group within the recognised territorial boundaries of the state, and (d) the ‘increasingly complex intra-state wars’ in the former colonial states, where the challenge may come from, ‘culturally defined groups whose members identify with one another and with the group on the basis of shared racial, ethnic, linguistic, religious or kinship characteristic (cited in Ramsbotham, et al, 2005, p. 65) v) K.J. Holsti in his 1996 book, The State, War, and the State of War (Cambridge University Press, p. 21), categorised international (inter-state) conflicts up to 1989 in terms of twenty four issues, grouped into five composite sets: conflict over territory, economics, nation-state creation, ideology and ‘human sympathy’ (ethnicity, religion etc.). He concluded that the incidents of first two had been declining, but that of the last three was increasing. He later focuses on non-interstate war and bases his typology on ‘types of actors and/or objectives’, ending up with four categories of conflict: (a) inter-state wars (e.g. India-China war, 1962 and armed interventions involving significant loss of life (US in Vietnam, USSR in Afghanistan); (b) decolonising wars of national liberation; (c) internal wars based on ideological goals; and (d) state nation wars, including armed resistance by ethnic, language and/or religious groups, often with the purpose of secession or separation from state (e.g. Tamils in Sri Lanka) (cited in Ramsbotham, et al, 2005, p. 65). 14 Conflicts and Peace : Global Perspectives 1.3 NATURE AND PATTERNS OF CONTEMPORARY CONFLICTS Discussion and definitions offered in preceding paragraphs offer valuable insight into key elements of nature of conflicts in international arena. Most of the definitions suggest that any conflict is product of prevailing structure of international system, relationship between its constituent units and social, political, economic and technological factors influencing state behaviour. In this backdrop, scholars have made attempts to understand the underlying dynamics of international conflicts. 1.3.1 Changing Nature of Conflicts Available data on the pattern of contemporary international conflicts reveal that we are moving into an era, where large scale inter-state conflicts or wars are becoming increasingly irrelevant. Territorial disputes do exist and they can cause inter-state conflicts. Wars to seize territory with alien population have become untenable (K Subrahmanyan, 1997, p. 41). Therefore, high intensity conventional wars are not normally resorted to for the kind of reasons that generated such war in the past. However, inter-state conflicts are not resorted to for the reasons that generated such conflicts in the past. There are several reasons for that. In the post-World War II international order, there have been a number of developments both at ideological and structural level that have strengthened global norms against war. There have been concerted efforts by the UN and other international agencies toward prevention and management of conflicts. At the civil society level also, there have been growing concerns over destruction caused by war and its impact on development and human lives. The imperatives of globalisation and resultant interdependence, expansion of mass media, information technology and growing importance of trade and development have created an environment where armed conflicts and wars are not encouraged. There is a growing realisation that economic development, trade and commerce, greater democratisation and empowerment of common people have created incentives and structures where peaceful resolutions of conflicts are encouraged. Additionally, the evolving and expanding global security governance, despite all its limitations, has been effective in driving down the number of armed conflicts in contemporary international order. Steven Pinker in his book “Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined” (2011) has argued that levels of violence around the world have declined. Based on the analysis of level of violence in different phases of history of humankind, Pinker argues that overall trend has been downwards both in terms of conflicts and resultant violence. Describing the contemporary international order as an era of peace, Pinker argues that the end of the Cold War removed a major source of international conflict. The period also witnessed emergence of global security governance, reduction in intra-state conflict, greater impetus to globalisation, expansion of democracy around the world, expansion of mass media and greater incentives for cooperation among nations. The revolution in military affairs (RMA) has made war a very costly affair. The destructive potential of nuclear weapons and the large number of nuclear weapons states has limited the scope of conventional conflict. There has been an exponential growth in the technology resulting in manufacture and distribution of arms, ammunition and weapon technology. This has enhanced the offensive capabilities of most of the state. As a result, Conflicts in International Arena: An Overview 15 the possible lethality and destruction caused by conventional war is often greater than the objectives to be achieved. 1.3.2 Patterns of Conflict in International Arena Available data on armed conflicts support this argument. The inter-state conflicts in the form of full-scale conventional wars are becoming less common in international arena. Of the 56 major armed conflicts registered in the decade 1990-2005, only three were of inter-state nature; all others were internal conflicts even though in 14 of them foreign troops were engaged on one side or the other. The Human Security Report, 2013 also suggests that the share of high intensity conflicts those that cause 1000 or more casualties (battle death) per year has gone down. Data between 2000 and 2012 suggest that High- intensity conflicts have relatively low level. For example, in 2011, there were only six high intensity conflicts were reported in Afghanistan, Libya, Pakistan, Somalia, Sudan and Yemen. Some of these conflicts have been active and among the deadliest for many years (Human Security Report, 2013, p. 86). According to Armed Conflict Survey 2015, there were 63 armed conflicts, with 56,000 fatalities taking place around the world in 2008, whereas in 2014 only 42 armed conflicts producing a total of 180,000 fatalities (Armed Conflict Survey, 2015, ISIS, London). The decline in the number of conflicts has been more than compensated for by an inexorable rise in the intensity of violence associated with them. Data compiled by UCDP also confirms this trend. According to UCDP, 40 armed conflicts were active in 2014, the highest number since 1999 and an increase of 18 percent as compared to 34 armed conflicts reported in 2013. In 2014, the conflict in Syria and the escalating violence in countries like Iraq, Afghanistan, Nigeria and Ukraine, resulted in the highest yearly death toll in the post-Cold War period. In fact, even when excluding Syria, 2014 witnessed the highest number of battle-related deaths in 15 years. The number of wars, which we define as conflicts resulting in at least 1000 yearly battle-related deaths, has also increased, from six in 2013 to 11 in 2014. This represents the largest relative increase since the early 1960s. In recent years, the number of battle-related deaths has increased dramatically, mainly due to the developments in Syria. In 2014, the UCDP recorded the highest number of battle-related deaths since the end of the Cold War. 2014 2012 2010 2008 42 51 55 63 active conflicts active conflicts active conflicts active conflicts 180,000 110,000 49,000 56,000 fatalities fatalities fatalities fatalities Figure 1.1: Casualties in Armed Conflicts Source: Armed Conflict Survey 2015, ISIS, London 16 Conflicts and Peace : Global Perspectives Figure 1.2: Trends in Armed Conflicts Source: Armed Conflict Survey 2015, London Another shift in the pattern of international conflicts has been in terms of regions affected by them. While the first part of the century was dominated by warfare between rich states, most of the contemporary conflicts take place overwhelmingly in the world’s underdeveloped and poorest countries. These parts of the world witnessed 98% of all international conflicts since 1945 (Matin Wight, 1966, p. 103). According to K.J. Holsti, out of 164 armed conflicts between 1945 and 1995, all but five were located in the third world (KJ Holsti, 1996, pp. 22, 210-24). Holsti has excluded anti-colonial wars from this data. If one includes these figures, the concentration of conflicts would appear to be more alarming. Regions most affected by various forms of armed conflicts are parts of West Asia, Africa, and South and Central Asia. Most of these areas are populous and characterised by poor levels of economic development, weak states, inability of institutions of governance to address conflicts in society both in terms of conflict prevention, management and resolution, ethnic polarisation and religious extremism. 1.4 CONFLICTS IN INTERNATIONAL ARENA: MAJOR MANIFESTATIONS AND TRENDS One of the major aspects of conflicts in international arena is the complex combination of international and internal elements. Modern conflicts are rarely categorised as being purely ‘international’ or purely ‘internal’ in character, but rather a mixture of internal and external conflicts taking place in a globalised context, involving both state and non-state actors. The ongoing conflicts in West Asia, Afghanistan, South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa are examples of mixed/hybrid warfare. In reality, the modern conflict is often a mixture of all these: territoriality, religious ideologies, economic interests, criminal activities, proxy war, foreign intervention, conflict over resources and ethnic polarisation. One aspect that is common in all these conflicts are, however, that the enemies and battlefields are Conflicts in International Arena: An Overview 17 not defined, objectives are often not clear and keep changing and civilian populations become easy target. A classic example of this type of conflict is scenario in Syria, which witnessed a mixture of internal and international conflict since 2011, where the Bashar Assad’s regime, with support from Russia, Iran and Iran supported Hizbullah fighting against a range of opposition groups, including Al Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra and Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS), both of which have also been target of air strike by the US-led coalition forces. This conflict is a classic example of a mixture of opposition against repressive regime, religious extremism, geo-strategic interest of global and regional powers such as US, Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey that have fueled and sustained the conflict. The Syrian conflict has resulted in approximately 200,000 deaths, 70,000 of which occurred in 2014, and 3.4 million refugees of which 1.4 million fled to neighbouring states and various European countries in 2014. Similarly, conflict is Afghanistan has been going on since 2001, with involvement of external players such as the US and its allies, including Pakistan. A number of ongoing conflicts in Africa such as in Rwanda and in the Great Lakes areas of the Africa including Congo and Uganda have been characterised as internal conflicts with involvement of external players (Bassiouni, C., “The New Wars and the Crisis of Compliance with the Laws of Armed Conflict by Non-state actors”, The Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology, Vol. 98, No. 3, 2008, p. 748). In the absence of a defined battlefield or enemy, innocent civilians often become target and that only helps the rebel forces in consolidating their positions among civilians. 1.4.1 Sub-Conventional Wars: Growing Importance of Non-State Actors In most of the above mentioned conflicts, non-state actors have emerged as potent adversaries. Many of them, in collusion with state actors, are also used as tools of proxy war of one nation against the other. In contemporary conflicts, the non-state actors are increasingly becoming lethal, with access to technology and equipment that previously only conventional state forces could afford to. Almost all contemporary conflicts such as in Syria, where great powers are involved primarily to serve their political interest, Lebanon war (2006), Russia-Georgia conflict (2008), Sri Lanka conflict (2009) and India-Pakistan conflict over Jammu and Kashmir (since 1990s), operation enduring freedom in Afghanistan clearly indicate growing importance of non-state actors. In almost all the theatres of conflict, the non-state actors have cross border linkage in terms of support structures, sources of finance, state support, arms procurement and safe haven. In many of the countries, internal conflicts are often exacerbated and sustained through this cross-border linkage. For example, India has faced a number of internal armed conflicts right since its independence. Cross-border terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir and other parts of India, multiple insurgencies in the Northeastern region often fueled by demands for secession and ethnic fault lines, Maoist movements in parts of Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Jharkhand, Telangana, Maharashtra and other parts of India. Though internal factors remain important, many of these movements have grown and are sustained due to their cross-border linkage in terms of state support, financial network, arms supply and ideological affinity with similar groups. In many cases these groups have been able to get support from a section of population; exploiting new technologies and globalisation to their advantage; and posing a threat to those they perceive as their enemies. The use of information technology and cyberspace has added new dimension to contemporary conflicts. 18 Conflicts and Peace : Global Perspectives Sub-conventional wars are essentially wars between the weak and the strong. Such wars are fought for winning the political loyalty of the people and are people-centric. These wars are always protracted and political outcomes are determined by the staying power, reflected in political will and the ability to achieve the desired strategic effect by application of all means. Technology has empowered the individuals and today, even a single terrorist/guerrilla can cause severe damage to adversaries through cyber, financial and kinetic attacks, which earlier only large organisations and states could do. The constant fear of non-state actors acquiring WMD poses the greatest global threat, due to potentially catastrophic consequences. The dynamics of deterrence and escalatory control are more relevant against nation states. Against non-state actors, these capabilities have little effect. However, several diplomatic, informational, military and socio-economic measures can be effectively used in a complementary and comprehensive approach to enforce restraint on the activities of non- states actors. As the battlefield merge, the future conflict would also be conducted with energy, trade and aid being used as weapons. Thus, the very concept of international conflicts needs to be re-examined. 1.4.2 Religious Extremism and Terrorism Religious extremism and terrorism has emerged as one of the key forms of international conflicts. In June 2014, the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham announced the establishment of ‘caliphate’ led by Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. For the last few years, the group has steadily expanded its presence in Iraq and Syria, filling up the vacuum created by internal instability in the region. The conflict in Syria is linked to that taking place in the Sunni heartland of Iraq, where the ISIS was able to capture a large swath of territory with resources. The growth of ISIS in Iraq and Syria resulted in unprecedented brutality resulting in more than 18,000 death and two million internally displaced persons (Armed Conflict Survey, 2015). With US-led coalition air strikes since August 2014 and subsequently by Russia and ground attacks by Iran-supported Shia militia, the ISIS suffered significant damage. But, the ISIS continues to control significant territory and resources. The group has been able to exploit information technology and social media very effectively to put across its views and radicalise a section of youth not only in the region but also in European countries and South Asia. The group has been able to attract a substantial number of foreign fighters, through its radicalisation campaign, and financial resources to take control of territory the size of UK, and to command as many as 50,000 fighters in Syria alone. One of the key features in the rise of ISIS is a trend towards localisation. According to Alia Brahimi, the Al Qaeda emerged partly due to the globalisation of a local conflict in Afghanistan. On the other hand, the ISIS grew in prominence in Iraq and Syria through the localisation of Al Qaeda’s global campaign. (Alia Brahimi, Armed Conflict Survey 2015). Religious extremism has also played a substantial role in other parts of West Asia such as Libya, Egypt and Yemen. The growth of ISIS in Iraq and Syria has brought to the fore not only the threat from religious extremism and radical mobilisation but also the use of these elements by state actors to further their own geo-strategic interests. In West Asia, for example, religious extremism was encouraged in the aftermath of US campaign against Iraq, interests of Iran to secure a strategic space in the region and political interests of Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Russia. Some of these groups are active in India’s Jammu and Kashmir and other parts to spread extremist mobilisation and terrorist activities. In fact, Jammu and Kashmir Conflicts in International Arena: An Overview 19 has witnessed proxy war against India, launched and sustained by extremist groups with support from Pakistan’s security agencies who use religious extremism to promote and sustain their activities in Jammu and Kashmir and other parts of India. Similarly, in Afghanistan religious extremism was encouraged both by the US and Pakistan against military intervention from USSR. In course of time, the Taliban consolidated its position in Afghanistan and emerged as a threat to regional and international security. The terrorist attacks in the US were a direct impact of growth of religious extremism supported by the great powers. The groups like Al Qaeda, Taliban, and Laskhar-e-Toiba gained strength due to legitimacy provided to religious extremism in regional and international security environment. 1.5 SUMMARY Conflicts occur when the beliefs or actions of a group or its members are either resisted by or unacceptable to one or more members of another group. The origin of the word ‘conflict’ can be traced back to the Latin word confligere, which means to strike together. Conflict as a concept is a complex subject that has evolved over the years with the changes in social, political, economic and technological changes in society. The reason for the diverse perspective on the subject is that the meaning and nature of conflict is conditioned by historical context, nature of social and political organisation, relationship between and among individuals and groups in that particular socio-political setting and competition over resources and entitlement. Conflicts in international arena include conflicts between nation states, competition over resources — both at global and regional level — differences/discord between or among nation states and other political organisations over political issues, ethnic or religious conflicts with cross-border dimensions, struggle against repressive regimes and/or struggle for creation of new nation states. We witness different types of conflicts in international arena. Prominent among them are: Inter-State Conflicts, Intra-State Conflicts, Non-State Conflicts, Extra-Systemic Conflicts, and one-sided violence One aspect of modern wars seems to distinguish them from conflicts of earlier era, that is, their complex combination of international and internal elements. Modern conflicts are rarely categorised as being purely ‘international’ or purely in ‘non-international’ in character, but rather a mixture of internal and international conflicts taking place in a globalised context, involving both state and non-state actors. Non-state actors have emerged as potent adversaries. Many of them, in collusion with state actors, are also used as tools of proxy war of one nation against the other. In contemporary conflicts, the non-state actors are increasingly becoming lethal, with access to technology and equipment that previously only conventional state forces could afford to. In almost all the theatres of conflict, the non-state actors have cross border linkage in terms of support structures, sources of finance, state support, arms procurement and safe haven. In many of the countries, internal conflicts are often exacerbated and sustained through this cross-border linkage. Religious extremism and terrorism has emerged as one of the key forms of international conflicts. 1.6 TERMINAL QUESTIONS 1) What do you understand by conflict? What are the definitions given in this regard? 20 Conflicts and Peace : Global Perspectives 2) What are the nature and patterns of contemporary conflicts? 3) What are the major trends in conflicts in International Arena? SUGGESTED READINGS Themner, L and Wallerstein, P., (2014), “Armed Conflict, 1946-2013”, Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 51, No. 4, pp. 541-54 Gleditsch Nils Petter, Wallensteen Peter, Eriksson Mikael, Sollenberg Margareta, Strand Håvard (2002) “Armed Conflict, 1946–2001: A New Dataset”. Journal of Peace Research 39 (4): 615–637. Galtung J., (1996) Peace by Peaceful Means: Peace and Conflict, Development and Civilisation, Sage, London. Schelling, C. T., (1960) The Strategy of Conflict, Harvard University Press, Cambridge. Uppsala Conflict Database, Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University, Sweden, at http://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/datasets/uppsala_ conflict_database_ categorical_variables/ The Heidelberg Institute for International Conflict Research, Department of Political Science at the University of Heidelberg, at http://www.hiik.de/en/ Kenneth N. Waltz, (1979) Theory of International Politics, Reading, MA: Addison- Wesley, 1979 UNIT 2 CHANGING NATURE OF INTERNATIONAL CONFLICT Structure 2.1 Introduction Aims and Objectives 2.2 Evolutions of Meaning and Scope of International Conflict 2.2.1 Convergence of International and Non-International Conflict 2.3 Changing Nature of Conflicts 2.3.1 The Generation of War Model 2.3.2 Historical Forces and their Impact 2.4 Patterns of Contemporary International Conflict 2.4.1 Warfare in Contemporary International Order 2.4.2 Hybrid Warfare 2.4.3 Sub-Conventional Conflict and Non-State Actors 2.4.4 Religious Extremism and Terrorism 2.5 Summary 2.6 Terminal Questions Suggested Readings 2.1 INTRODUCTION We all are familiar with the term ‘conflict’. In our day-to-day life, the term is used to express a variety of things, both in terms of activities and emotions. The term is used for fight, debate, argument, contest, war, clashes between or among groups, terrorism, insurgency, religious extremism and other similar acts. In fact, conflict has been an integral part of human affairs. Since the historical times, when human being started living in groups, human civilisation has evolved through a complex process of conflict and attempts to find ways to manage and resolve it. The origin of the word ‘conflict’ can be traced back to the Latin word configure, which means to strike together. Originally, it had a physical rather moral connotation. The most widely used meaning, therefore, has been a fight—verbal or physical—between two or more persons or groups. However, in course of time, the meaning and scope of the term conflict has evolved to incorporate many other dimensions, reflecting sociological, psychological, economic, political aspects of human life. Therefore, in Social Sciences and International Relations literature, ‘conflict’, has been treated as a very complex concept with divergent definitions and perspectives. As already seen in the first unit, the reason for divergent perspectives on the subject is that the meaning and nature of conflict is context centric. The history of International Relations suggests that the character and intensity of conflict is determined by political, social, economic and strategic equilibrium both at the level of international system and within a state. Therefore, the meaning and pattern of conflict keeps changing over a period of time. 22 Conflicts and Peace : Global Perspectives Historically, the literature on International Relations focused on inter-state armed conflict or War between or among states as dominant form of international conflict. ‘Wars’, as the famous strategic thinker Carl von Clausewitz puts it, were an extension of politics, to achieve political objectives. Trends in international conflicts suggest that the nature and pattern of international conflict is changing. Conflicts that take place in contemporary international system are different from wars that took place in early 20th century primarily in Europe. No matter how clearly one thinks, it is impossible to anticipate precisely the character of future conflict. The key is to not be so far off the mark that it becomes impossible to adjust once that character is revealed’ Professor Sir Michael Howard In the 20th century, the lethality and destruction caused by the Second World War initiated a debate on utility of war as an instrument of politics. The period from 1945 to 1991 was marked by the Cold War that witnessed ideological and strategic rivalry between the US and USSR led groups of states. The frequency of inter-state armed conflict came down during the period mainly because of ‘balance of power’, existence of nuclear weapons and advancement in technology. However, the period of Cold War was also marked by de-colonisation, struggle for self-determination and struggle against political, social and economic injustice. It led to the emergence of non-state actors as parties to conflict that were also used as tools of proxy war of one nation against the other. The disintegration of Soviet Union in 1991 led to the end of Cold War and bipolarity in international system. Attempts were made to broaden the definition of conflict to bring non-military dimensions of conflicts in international system. The September 2011 terrorist attacks in the United States radically transformed the discourse on conflict and security and today we have an uncertain security scenario of “no war, no peace”. Aims and Objectives After studying this Unit, you will be able to understand:  evolution of Meaning and scope of international conflict;  changing Types and Patterns of international conflicts; and  contemporary manifestations and Emerging Trends in international conflicts. 2.2 EVOLUTIONS OF MEANING AND SCOPE OF INTERNATIONAL CONFLICT In international relations literature, the realist paradigm, for long, dominated our understanding on conflict and security. The realist view point on international conflicts is based on two major assumptions. First, states are prime actors in international system and international conflicts are conditioned by state’s quest for security against external threats. Secondly, these threats are primarily military in nature and require the building up of military capability because conflicts are integral part of international system. According to this school of thought, sources of conflict are in the international system and inter-state relationship. This understanding grew out of the realist demarcation between domestic order and international anarchy where war is an ever present possibility. Given the absence of an international authority to ensure compliance, states rely on their own capabilities to ensure security. The self-help system results in what realists call a ‘security Changing Nature of International Conflict 23 dilemma’ which results in arms race that threaten overall security of the system (Kenneth Waltz, 1979, pp. 102-04). This realist worldview was heavily influenced by the existence of nuclear weapons, great power rivalry and the balance of power. 2.2.1 Convergence of ‘International and Non-International Conflicts’ It is not surprising, therefore, that the inter-state armed conflict was, for long, viewed as a dominant form of international conflict. The international law regulating international armed conflicts also made clear distinction between ‘international’ and ‘non-international’ conflicts. International armed conflicts, commonly referred to as ‘war’ was understood as an armed conflict between two states and ‘non-international’ conflicts, i.e., civil war, as an armed conflict between a state and an internally located insurgent movement that had taken up arms. Internal armed conflicts or civil wars were seen as domestic concerns, outside the purview of international legal regimes because states were unwilling to allow international regulations in what they considered internal political issues. This dichotomy between international and non-international armed conflicts in international humanitarian law has been widely criticized. The intensity and brutality of the Spanish Civil War and the Second World War demonstrated to states that they needed to update the laws of war to include non-international armed conflicts also. The International Committee of Red Cross presented a report in 1948, which recommended that the Geneva Conventions apply international humanitarian law in all cases of armed conflict which are not of an international character, especially cases of civil war, colonial conflicts, or war of religion, which may occur in the territory of one or more of the High Contracting Parties” (J. Picket, 1960).4 However, the Geneva Conventions did not fully accept this proposal. The adopted Common Article 3 defines non-international armed conflict, as ‘armed conflict not of an international character occurring in the territory of one of the High Contracting Parties’. Defining International Conflicts Scholars working on international conflicts and wars were conscious of the fact that in changing international environment, any attempt to confine meaning of international conflicts to armed conflicts between two states or group of states would not capture the essence of the concept both in terms of evolving nature of conflict or its impact on regional or international security architecture. Some of the prominent perspectives on international conflicts are given below: i) According to Quincy Wright, war is manifested by the physical struggle of armies to occupy the same space, each seeking to annihilate, disarm, or capture the other; by the political struggle of nations to achieve policies against the resistance of others; by the ideological struggle of people to preserve or extend ways of life and value systems; and by the legal struggle of states to acquire titles, to vindicate claims, to prevent violence, or to punish offenders by recognised procedures of regulated violence (Wright, 1942, p. 698). This definition provides comprehensive overview of international conflicts to include political, ideological and legal dimensions of conflicts. ii) Singer defines conflict on the basis of political status of conflict parties. He makes a distinction between interstate wars, extra-systemic wars, but here adds two further 4 The Geneva Convention usually denotes the agreements of 1949, which comprises four treaties and three additional protocols that establish the standards of international law for the humanitarian treatment of war. The agreements updated the terms of the first three treaties (1864, 1906, 1929), and added a fourth. 24 Conflicts and Peace : Global Perspectives classes of non-interstate conflict: civil conflicts in which unlike one protagonist may be ‘an insurgent or revolutionary group within the recognised territorial boundaries of the state, and the ‘increasingly complex intra-state wars’ in the former colonial states, where the challenge may come from, ‘culturally defined groups whose members identify with one another and with the group on the basis of shared racial, ethnic, linguistic, religious or kinship characteristic (cited in Ramsbotham, et al, 2005, p. 65). iii) K.J. Holsti in his 1996 book, The State, War, and the State of War (Cambridge University Press, p. 21), categorised international (inter-state) conflicts up to 1989 in terms of twenty four issues, grouped into five composite sets: conflict over territory, economics, nation-state creation, ideology and ‘human sympathy’ (ethnicity, religion etc.). He later focuses on non-interstate was and bases his typology on ‘types of actors and/or objectives’, ending up with four categories of conflict: (a) inter-state wars (e.g. India-China war, 1962 and armed interventions involving significant loss of life (US in Vietnam, USSR in Afghanistan); (b) decolonising wars of national liberation; (c) internal wars based on ideological goals; and (d) state nation wars, including armed resistance by ethnic, language and/or religious groups, often with the purpose of secession or separation from state (e.g. Tamils in Sri Lanka) (cited in Ramsbotham, et al, 2005, p.65) iv) According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), a “major armed conflict” is defined as the use of armed force between the military forces of two or more governments and at least one organised armed group, resulting in the battle-related death of at least 1000 people in any single calendar year and in which the incompatibility concerns control of government and/or territory. v) The Uppsala Conflict Database defines conflict as contested incompatibility that concerns government or territory or both, where the use of armed force between two parties results in at least 25 battle-related death. Of these two parties, at least one has to be the government of a state. 2.3 CHANGING NATURE OF CONFLICTS 2.3.1 The Generation of War Model One of the prominent perspectives to understand the changing pattern of international conflict is generation of warfare model. The theory was described by US military strategists, William S. Lind, Colonel Keith Nightingale, Captain John F. Schmitt (USMC), Joseph W. Sutton (USA), and Lieutenant Colonel Gary I. Wilson (USMCR) (US Marine Corps Gazette, 1989). The key point in the argument for generation of war is that changes in warfare are not driven by technology alone, but by the political, economic, social and technical scale of the society. According to this theory we are now moving into fourth and fifth generation of warfare. Key elements of this theory are given below: a) The First Generation of Warfare: It refers to battles fought with massive manpower, using line and column tactics with uniformed soldiers governed by states. It can be traced back to creation of modern nation states after the Treaty of Westphalia, which firmly established the sovereignty of modern nation states, with exclusive rights of governments to maintain their own military. Prominent examples Changing Nature of International Conflict 25 were English Civil War (1642-1651), Napoleonic Wars (1803-1815) and American Civil War (1861-1865). b) The Second Generation of Warfare: In this generation, massed firepower replaced mass manpower. This tactics was used after the invention of breech-loading rifled musket meant for longer range, greater accuracy and faster rates of fires. The prominent examples were the First World War (1914-1918) and Second World War (1939 to 1945). c) The Third Generation of Warfare: It marked a shift from an industrial to mechanical era to make to mechanised warfare dominant. However, the response was at the level of ideas, employed first by Germans in the First World War to counter the superior firepower of its adversaries. The focus in this generation of warfare was on using speed and surprise to bypass the enemy’s line and collapse their forces from the rear. d) The Fourth Generation of Warfare: This form of warfare is characterised by a blurring of lines between politics, combatants and civilians. It signifies the nation state’s loss of their near monopoly on combat forces, returning to modes of conflict common in pre-modern times. This is the form of warfare in which one of the major participants is not a state but rather a violent non-state actor. 2.3.2 Historical Forces and their Impact Steven Pinker, in his book “Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined” (2011) has argued that levels of violence around the world have declined. Based on the analysis of level of violence in different phases of history of humankind, Pinker argues that overall trend has been downwards both in terms of conflicts and resultant violence. Pinker identifies five key trends in historical evolution of human civilisation. They are as follows: (Quoted in Human Security Report, 2013) i) Pacification Process: The transition was over thousands of years from hunter- gatherers, horticultural, and other early human societies to the first agricultural civilisations and then nation-states. These transitions have been associated with dramatic decreases in death rates from both war and homicides. ii) Civilising Process: From the late Middle Ages to the twentieth century accompanied the growth and consolidation of the nation-state system in Europe. During this period, Europe became more urban, more cosmopolitan, commercial, and secular. Often highly repressive, the Civilising Process was associated with declines in homicide rates that ranged from tenfold to more than fiftyfold. iii) Humanitarian Revolution: that started in the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries was associated with the decline and eventual abolition of slavery, with the slow elimination of judicial and other forms of torture and a long-term reduction in all manner of other cruel and inhuman practices. iv) Long Peace: The post- World War II world witnessed the disappearance of great- power wars and the considerable reduction in the number of international conflicts. The unprecedented destruction caused by the World War II also strengthened the international norms against war. By the early 1970s, wars of liberation from colonial rule were mostly over and the idea of new colonial conquests became unacceptable in international community. 26 Conflicts and Peace : Global Perspectives v) New Peace: The end of the Cold War removed a major source of international conflict. The period also witnessed emergence of global security governance, reduction in intra-state conflict, greater impetus to globalisation, expansion of democracy around the world, expansion of mass media and greater incentives for cooperation among nations. 2.4 PATTERNS OF CONTEMPORARY INTERNATIONAL CONFLICTS 2.4.1 Warfare in Contemporary International Order As discussed above in view of post-Second War developments, there have been significant changes in the nature and type of conflicts. Important of these are given below: Even a cursory glance at the pattern of contemporary international conflicts would reveal that we are moving into an era where large scale international conflicts or wars are becoming increasingly irrelevant. The utility of war as a rational instrument of state policy to gain political objective is being seriously questioned (Ken Booth, 1991). Territorial disputes do exist and they can be cause of inter-state armed conflicts. For example, India and Pakistan have long standing dispute over Jammu and Kashmir. India and China also have dispute over demarcation of borders. However, the inter-state conflicts in contemporary international order are not resorted for the reasons that generated such conflicts in the past. In the post-World War II international order, there have been a number of developments both at ideological and structural level that have strengthened global norms against war. There have been concerted efforts by the UN and other international agencies toward prevention and management of conflicts. In addition, the imperatives of globalisation and resultant interdependence, expansion of mass media, information technology, emphasis on trade and development have created an environment where armed conflicts and wars are not encouraged. There is a growing realisation that economic development, trade and commerce, greater democratisation and empowerment of common people have created incentives and structures where peaceful resolutions of conflicts are encouraged. Additionally, the evolving and expanding global security governance, despite all its limitations, has been effective in driving down the number of armed conflicts in contemporary international order. In such a situation, internal conflicts of various types occur: low intensity conflict, insurgency, terrorism, revolutionary war, protracted war, proxy war etc. These are far more common than inter-state war. As Liddle Hart says, “This is the only kind of war that fits the condition of modern age (Quoted in Frank Kitson, 1971, p.16). For external powers, involvement in such conflicts is emerging as the most preferred strategy. While they can be initiated at modest cost, the defending nation has to spend many times more to defend itself and counter it. Plural democracies, multi-cultural and multi-lingual societies are more prone to such conflicts because these differences can be used as the most potent factors to be exploited to hurt a country, to break its unity, fragment it, create insurgency, terrorism and other social turbulences. According to Reydams, L., “….by a constant switching of friends and foes and by a breakdown of institutional authorities (such as the military and the police) responsible for ordering and having recourse to the use of force”. In this context, acts of war and Changing Nature of International Conflict 27 criminality become indistinguishable and the war drags on with no prospect of peace accord to end it. Such wars, which had already multiplied in the 1980s and 1990s, look set – along with guerrilla-terrorist wars – to determine the course of violence in the twenty-first century in many parts of the world” (Reydams, L ‘A la guerre Comme ala guerre: “Patterns of Armed Conflict, humanitarian law responses and new challenges”, International Review of Red Cross, vol. 88, no. 864, Dec 2006). Another shift in the pattern of international conflicts has been in terms of regions affected by them. While the first part of the century was dominated by warfare between rich states, most of the contemporary conflicts take place overwhelmingly in the world’s underdeveloped and poorest countries. These parts of the world witnessed 98% of all international conflicts since 1945 (Matin Wight, 1966, p. 103). According to K.J. Holsti, out of 164 armed conflicts between 1945 and 1995, all but five were located in the third world (K.J. Holsti, 1996, pp. 22, 210-24). Holsti has excluded anti-colonial wars from this data. If one includes these figures, the concentration of conflicts would appear to be more alarming. Regions most affected by various forms of armed conflicts are parts of West Asia, Africa, and South and Central Asia. Most of these areas are populous and characterised by poor levels of economic development, weak states, inability of institutions of governance to address conflicts in society both in terms of conflict prevention, management and resolution, ethnic polarisation and religious extremism. 2.4.2 Hybrid Warfare One aspect of modern wars seems to distinguish them from conflicts of earlier era, that is, their complex combination of international and internal elements. Modern conflicts are rarely categorised as being purely ‘international’ or purely ‘non-international’ in character, but rather a mixture of internal and international conflicts taking place in a globalised context, involving both state and non-state actors. In some cases, the state is battling rebels who wish to take control of the state or secede from it, in others there is conflict over control of natural resources, or is fueled by extremist ideologies or ethnic conflicts. The ongoing conflicts in West Asia, Afghanistan, South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa are examples of mixed/hybrid warfare. In reality, the modern conflict is often a mixture of all these: territoriality, religious ideologies, economic interests, criminal activities, proxy war, foreign intervention, conflict over resources and ethnic polarisation. One aspect that is common in all these conflicts are, however, that the enemies and battlefields are not defined, objectives are often not clear and keep changing and civilian populations become easy target. A classic example of this hybrid warfare is ongoing conflict in Syria, which witnessed a mixture of internal and international conflict since 2011, in which the Bashar Assad’s regime, with support from Russia, Iran and Iran supported Hizbullah fighting against a range of opposition groups, including Al Qaeda affiliate Jabhat-al-Nusra and Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS), both of which have also been target of air strike by US- led coalition forces. This conflict is a classic example of a mixture of opposition against repressive regime, religious extremism, geo-strategic interest of global and regional powers such as US, Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey that have fueled and sustained the conflict. The Syrian conflict has resulted in approximately 2,00,000 deaths, 70,000 of which occurred in 2014, and 3.4 million refugees of which 1.4 million fled to neighbouring states and various European countries in 2014. The conventional military capability of states remains important. But the hybrid conflicts 28 Conflicts and Peace : Global Perspectives demand additional requirements from conventional armed forces in terms of their capabilities to deal with such conflicts. They are often found lacking in softer skills like cultural awareness, training, language skills, psychological operations, human intelligence and their interface with local population. Other aspects of conventional capability such as air power and missile capabilities play a significant role in conventional conflict. However, to remain relevant and sustainable for contemporary conflict a radical re-assessment in areas of strategy, tactics and intensity becomes necessary. In the absence of a defined battlefield or enemy, innocent civilians often become target and that only helps the rebel forces in consolidating their positions among civilians. The focus, therefore, should be to minimize collateral damage and enable the provision of intimate close air support to ground forces. Similarly, the maritime capability of states involved in such conflicts in terms of sea denial and sea control remains essential elements to enforce deterrence on the potential adversary. Operational maneuver from the seas and coercive diplomacy will also form important components of capability development. Information technology and network-centricity have transformed methodologies of warfare. Their impact, however, needs to be pragmatically assessed against realistic battlefield scenarios. Aerospace capability is a potent dimension of land warfare, with a vast applicability in all forms of conflict. Insurgent and terrorist activities have added complex politico-military dynamics to the nature of conflict. The contemporary nature of conflict mandates realistic transformation in the conventional force structure, deployment methodologies, support structures and emerging technologies, to be able to face the multi- spectrum challenges that would emerge in the future. 2.4.3 Sub-Conventional Conflicts and Non-State Actors In contemporary conflicts, the non-state actors are increasingly becoming lethal, with access to technology and equipment that previously only conventional state forces could afford to. Almost all contemporary conflicts such as in Syria, where great powers are involved primarily to serve their political interest, Lebanon war (2006), Russia-Georgia conflict (2008), Sri Lanka conflict (2009) and India-Pakistan conflict over Jammu and Kashmir (since 1990s), operation enduring freedom in Afghanistan clearly indicate growing importance of non-state actors. In almost all the theatres of conflict, the non-state actors have cross border linkage in terms of support structures, sources of finance, state support, arms procurement and safe haven. In many of the countries, internal conflicts are often exacerbated and sustained through these cross-border linkages. For example, India has faced a number of internal armed conflicts right since its independence. Cross-border terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir and other parts of India, multiple insurgencies in the Northeastern region often fueled by demands for secession and ethnic faultlines, Maoist movements in parts of Chhattisgarh, Orissa, Jharkhand, Telangana, Maharashtra and other parts of India. Though internal factors remain important, many of these movements have grown and are sustained due to their cross-border linkage in terms of state support, financial network, arms supply and ideological affinity with similar groups. Sub-conventional wars are fought for winning the political loyalty of the people and are people-centric. These wars are always protracted and political outcomes are determined by the staying power, reflected in political will and the ability to achieve the desired strategic effect by application of all means. Technology has empowered the individuals and today, even a single terrorist/guerrilla can cause severe damage to adversaries through Changing Nature of International Conflict 29 cyber, financial and kinetic attacks, which earlier only large organisations and states could do. The dynamics of deterrence and escalatory control are more relevant against nation states. Against non-state actors, these capabilities have little effect. However, several diplomatic, informational, military and socio-economic measures can be effectively used in a complementary and comprehensive approach to enforce restraint on the activities of non-state actors. 2.4.4 Religious Extremism and Terrorism Religious extremism and terrorism has emerged as one of the key patterns of international conflicts. In June 2014, the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham announced the establishment of ‘caliphate’ led by Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. For the last few years, the group has steadily expanded its presence in Iraq and Syria, filling up the vacuum created by internal instability in the region. The conflict in Syria is linked to that taking place in the Sunni heartland of Iraq, where the ISIS was able to capture a large swathe of territory with resources. The growth of ISIS in Iraq and Syria resulted in unprecedented brutality resulting in more than 18,000 death and two million internally displaced persons. (Armed Conflict Survey, 2015).With US-led coalition air strikes since August 2014 and subsequently by Russia and ground attacks by Iran-supported Shia militia, the ISIS suffered significant damage. But, the ISIS continues to control significant territory and resources. The group has been able to exploit information technology and social media very effectively to put across its views and radicalise a section of youth not only in the region but also in European countries and South Asia. One of the key features in the rise of ISIS is a trend towards localisation. According to Alia Brahimi, the Al Qaeda emerged partly due to the globalisation of a local conflict in Afghanistan. Religious extremism has also played a substantial role in other parts of West Asia such as Libya, Egypt and Yemen. The growth of ISIS in Iraq and Syria has brought to the fore not only the threat from religious extremism and radical mobilisation but also the use of these elements by state actors to further their own geo-strategic interests. In West Asia, for example, religious extremism was encouraged in the aftermath of US campaign against Iraq, interests of Iran to secure a strategic space in the region and political interests of Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Russia. The Taliban consolidated their position in Afghanistan and emerged as a threat to regional and international security. The terrorist attack in the US was a direct impact of growth of religious extremism supported by the great powers. 2.5 SUMMARY The meaning, scope and character of international conflicts have evolved over the years to incorporate changes in social, political, economic and technological fields at the level of international system and their constituent units. In the literature of international relations, the concept has been treated as a very complex subject with divergent definitions and perspectives. Historically, inter-state armed conflict or War between or among states has been considered as dominant form of international conflict. However, in contemporary international system, the pattern of conflict is changing. They are different from wars that took place in early 20th century primarily in Europe in terms of tactics employed, weapons used, the objectives to be achieved and nature of parties involved in conflicts. Over a period of time, our understanding of conflicts has expanded to include sub- nationalities, terrorists, insurgents, religious extremism and ethnic interests. This reflects evolution from the first generation of warfare to the fourth generation of warfare. Even a 30 Conflicts and Peace : Global Perspectives cursory glance at the pattern of contemporary international conflicts would reveal that we are moving into an era where large scale international conflicts or wars are becoming increasingly irrelevant. On the other hand, internal conflicts of various types occur: low intensity conflict, insurgency, terrorism, revolutionary war, protracted war, proxy war etc. These are far more common than inter-state war. 2.6 TERMINAL QUESTIONS 1) What do you mean by Generation of War Model? Describe briefly the four generations of warfare. 2) Discuss the historical factors that have changed the nature of conflicts in post-Second World War period. 3) Write a note on Hybrid warfare. 4) What is the state of warfare in contemporary international order? 5) Describe the causes and nature of religious extremism and terrorism. SUGGESTED READINGS Armed Conflict Survey 2015, ISIS, London, 2015 Barry R Posen, “The Security Dilemma and Ethnic Conflict”, in Mihael E Brown, ed., Ethnic Conflict and International Security, Princeton University Press, 1993 The Decline in Global Violence: Evidence, Explanation, and Contestation, Human Security Report 2013, Human Security Report Project, Simon Fraser University Frank Kitson, Low Intensity Operations: Subversion, Insurgency, Peacekeeping, Faber and Faber, London, 1971 Jed Odermatt, “‘New Wars’ and the International/Non-international Armed Conflict Dichotomy”, at http://www.isisc.org/dms/images/stories/PDF/Paper%20Odermatt.pdf K Subrahmanyam, “Covert Operations pose New Challenges for Indian Security”, World Affairs, vol. I, no. 4, October-December 1997 K.J Holsti, “International Relation Theory and Domestic War in the Third World: The Limit of Relevance”, in Stephanie G. Nueman, ed., International Relations Theory and the Third World, Macmillan, London, 1998 Ken Booth, New Thinking about Strategy and International Security, Harper Collins, London, 1991 Kenneth N. Waltz, Theory of International Politics, Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley, 1979 Martin Van Creveld, On Future War, London, Brasseys, 1991 Oliver Ramsbotham, Tom Woodhouse and Hugh Miall, Contemporary Conflict Resolution, Second Edition, Polity, Cambridge, 2005 Steven Pinker, Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined, Viking Books, 2011 Changing Nature of International Conflict 31 Quincy Wright, A Study of War, University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 1942 Steven R David, “The Primacy of Internal War”, in in Stephanie G. Nueman, ed., International Relations Theory and the Third World, Macmillan, London, 1998 Steven pinker, Angels of our Nature: why Violence Has Declined, Viking Books,2011 Jed Odermatt, “‘New Wars’and the International/Non-international Armed Conflict Dichotomy”, at http://www.isisc.org/dms/images/stories/PDF/Paper%20Odermatt.pdf Reydams, L ‘A la guerre Comme ala guerre: “Patterns of Armed Conflict, humanitarian law responses and new challenges”, International Review of Red Cross, vol. 88, no. 864, December 2006 UNIT 3 FROM WAR TO DIALOGUE – EMERGING APPROACHES TO CONFLICT RESOLUTION Structure 3.1 Introduction Aims and Objectives 3.2 From War to Dialogue 3.3 Traditional and Emerging Strategies for Conflict Resolution 3.4 Dialogue 3.4.1 Dialogical Approach 3.5 Negotiation 3.6 Other Alternatives 3.6.1 The Trends 3.7 Conflict Resolution and the International Community 3.7.1 The United Nations 3.7.2 Regional organisations 3.7.3 The NGOs 3.8 Limitations 3.9 Summary 3.10 Terminal Questions Suggested Readings 3.1 INTRODUCTION War is the use of organised force between two human groups pursuing contradictory policies. Even though policies by territorial exaggeration pursued by both states are against each another, each group seeks to impose its policy upon the other. Medieval scholars developed the idea of ‘just war’, a war fought in self-defence or to produce justice that did not aim at destroying an opponent but to re-establish the conditions for peace and amity. However, in modern times, theories tended to follow the idea of Thomas Hobbes in seeing war as the ‘natural condition of man’. Even Immanuel Kant postulated that man in nature existed in a ‘state of war’. Not all theorists accepted the idea that man is naturally war –like. To Thomas Pine, ‘war was the product of the monarchical system, which violated the natural equality of men by violence, in the interests of the few, and taught many to fear and envy the war –like’. He proclaimed, ‘when democracy became universal, war would disappear’. In addition, some nationalists visualised war as a means to unity and progress and followed the German historian, Heinrich von Treitschke, who sees war as ‘the health of the state’ (McWillians: 1966). From War to Dialogue: Emerging Approaches to Conflict Resolution 33 Most of the decisions which shaped the fate of the world were taken in early twentieth century. The First World War was to have a profound impact on the future of the world. In the aftermath of the First World War, relations between states were disturbed by problems arising from the peace settlement, the Treaty of Versailles, which had come in June 1919. It was one of the most controversial settlements ever signed and was even criticised by the Allied countries on the grounds that it was too hard on the Germans. During this phase, the League of Nations on the one hand was struggling to sort out things. After the First World War, the future of Europe and the world was defined by the Treaty of Versailles. The victorious allies forced serious penalties on Germany who was in no position to object. The German right-wing nationalists were resentful at the provisions of the Treaty. The slow movement towards war, however, characterised the inter-war period for many years. But, the most major aspect of the Second World War was the formation of certain groups and axis. The end of Second World War also generated uncertainty and mistrust. The ‘Big Three’ leaders Winston Churchill, Franklin Roosevelt, and Joseph Stalin met at the Yalta Conference 1945 to design a new world order. The United Nations Organisation emerged as the successor to the League of Nations. Its main aim was to try to maintain world peace, and on the whole it has been more doing well than its unfortunate predecessor (Lowe: 1997). Since then both the policymakers and scholars have been emphasising on the need to maintenance peace and if there are situations of Conflict, their resolution through peaceful methods. Dialogue is one of the key components within the broader definition of peace building. Conflict resolution is the method and process of negotiation, arbitration and institution building which promote the peaceful ending of social conflict and war. The goal of Dialogue is to develop joint approaches to conflict resolution, as well as improve relationships, understanding, and trust between individuals or groups in conflict with one another. In this unit we will discuss the movement of the vision from war to dialogue and various aspects. Aims and Objectives After going through this unit, you will be able to understand:  the necessity for non-violent alternatives for dispute resolution;  the methods of dialogue and negotiations as processes of conflict resolution; and  the use of dialogue and negotiations by the international community and their limitations. 3.2 FROM WAR TO DIALOGUE As you have already read in other units, that there are two categories of approaches to solve disputes: violent and peaceful. War is the most violent method. Since the end of World War II the effects of which are still fresh, the international community has been engaged to avoid war at all levels. The world has transformed rapidly in the decade since the end of the Cold War. The end of an era of bipolarity, a new wave of democratisation, increasing globalisation of information and economic power, more frequent efforts at international coordination of security policy, a reaction of sometimes violent expressions of claims to rights based on cultural identity and a reclassification of sovereignty that imposes on states new tasks to their citizens and the world community. 34 Conflicts and Peace : Global Perspectives These transformations are changing much in the world, including, it seems, the shape of organised violence and the ways in which governments and others try to set its limits. One indication of Change is the notable decrease in the frequency and death toll of international wars in the 1990s. Sub-national ethnic and religious conflicts, however, have been so intense that the first post-Cold War decade was marked by enough deadly lower-intensity conflicts to make it the bloodiest since the arrival of nuclear weapon. It is still too soon to tell whether this shift in the most fatal type of warfare is a lasting change: the continued presence of contested borders between militarily strong states in Korea, Kashmir, Taiwan, and the West Asia gives reason to postpone judgment. It seems likely, though, that efforts to prevent outbreaks in such hot spots will take different forms in the changed international situation. A potentially revolutionary change in world politics has been in reality redefinition of “international conflict”. International conflict still includes the old fashioned war, a violent conflict between nation states acting through their own armed forces or proxie

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