Chapter One: Thinking Critically with Psychological Science Lecture Slides

Macduff Everton/The Image Bank/Getty Images Chapter One: Thinking Critically with Psychological Science Overview ▪ The Need for Psychological Science ▪ Research Strategies: How Psychologists Ask and Answer Questions ▪ Statistical Reasoning in Everyday Life Macduff Everton/The Image Bank/Getty Im...

Macduff Everton/The Image Bank/Getty Images Chapter One: Thinking Critically with Psychological Science Overview ▪ The Need for Psychological Science ▪ Research Strategies: How Psychologists Ask and Answer Questions ▪ Statistical Reasoning in Everyday Life Macduff Everton/The Image Bank/Getty Images The Need for Psychological Science ▪ Humans cannot rely solely on intuition and common sense. ▪ Three phenomena illustrate this: ▪ Hindsight bias ▪ Judgmental overconfidence ▪ Tendency to perceive patterns in random events ▪ Hindsight bias ▪ Tendency to believe, after learning an outcome, that we could have predicted it. ▪ Also known as the I-knew-it-all-along phenomenon. REUTERS/U.S. Coast Guard/Handout Macduff Everton/The Image Bank/Getty Images Did we know it all along? HINDSIGHT BIAS When drilling the Deepwater Horizon oil well in 2010, oil industry employees took some shortcuts and ignored some warning signs, without intending to harm the environment or their companies’ reputations. After the resulting Gulf oil spill, with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight, the foolishness of those judgments became obvious. Macduff Everton/The Image Bank/Getty Images WREAT → WATER ETRYN → ENTRY GRABE → BARGE • About how many seconds do you think it would take you to unscramble each anagram? The Limits of Intuition and Common Sense ▪ Overconfidence ▪ People tend to think they know more than they do. ▪ This occurs in academic and social behavior. Macduff Everton/The Image Bank/Getty Images The Need for Psychological Science ▪ Why is intuition overused and errors made? ▪ Hindsight bias, overconfidence, and our tendency to perceive patterns in random events often lead us to overestimate our intuition. ▪ But scientific inquiry can help us sift reality from illusion. Macduff Everton/The Image Bank/Getty Images The Scientific Attitude ▪ Curiosity ▪ Skepticism ▪ Humility Let’s take a closer look at each of these. Macduff Everton/The Image Bank/Getty Images The Scientific Attitude ▪ Curiosity ▪ Includes a passion to explore and understand the world without misleading or being misled ▪ Questions to consider ▪ What do you mean? ▪ How do you know? Macduff Everton/The Image Bank/Getty Images The Scientific Attitude ▪ Thinking critically ▪ Critical thinking refers to a more careful style of forming and evaluating knowledge than simply using intuition. ▪ In addition to the scientific method, critical thinking helps develop more effective and accurate ways to figure out what makes people do, think, and feel the things they do. Macduff Everton/The Image Bank/Getty Images Determining if flaw in information collection exists Considering alternative explanations for facts or results Discarding personal assumptions and biases and view the evidence CRITICAL THINKING: Analyzing, rather than simply accepting, information Looking for hidden bias, politics, values, or personal connections Searching for hidden assumption and decide if you agree Macduff Everton/The Image Bank/Getty Images The Scientific Attitude AP Photo/Alan Diaz ▪ Skepticism THE AMAZING RANDI: Magician and skeptic James Randi has tested and debunked a variety of psychic phenomena. ▪ Supports questions about behavior and mental processes: What do you mean? How do you know? Macduff Everton/The Image Bank/Getty Images The Scientific Attitude ▪ Humility ▪ Involves awareness that mistakes are possible and willingness to be surprised ▪ One of psychology’s early mottos: “The rat is always right.” Macduff Everton/The Image Bank/Getty Images The Scientific Method ▪ Scientific method is the process of testing ideas about the world by ▪ Setting up situations that test our ideas ▪ If the data do not fit our ideas, then ideas are modified and tested again. ▪ Making careful, organized observations ▪ Analyzing whether the data fit with our ideas Macduff Everton/The Image Bank/Getty Images The Scientific Method Macduff Everton/The Image Bank/Getty Images The Scientific Method ▪ Theory ▪ Explanation using an integrated set of principles that organizes observations and predicts behaviors or events ▪ Hypothesis ▪ Testable prediction, often implied by a theory ▪ Operational definition ▪ Carefully worded statement of the exact procedures (operations) used in a research study ▪ Replication ▪ Repeating the essence of a research study, usually with different participants in different situations, to see whether the basic finding extends to other participants and circumstances Macduff Everton/The Image Bank/Getty Images The Scientific Method ▪ Testing hypothesis and refining theories ▪ Description ▪ Correlation ▪ Causation ▪ Experiments Macduff Everton/The Image Bank/Getty Images Research Strategies: Description ▪ Descriptive research is a systematic, objective observation of people ▪ The goal is to provide a clear, accurate picture of people’s behaviors, thoughts, and attributes Macduff Everton/The Image Bank/Getty Images Description Case studies Naturalistic observations • Examines one individual in depth • Records behavior in natural environment • Provides fruitful ideas • Describes but does not explain behavior • Cannot be used to generalize • Can be revealing Surveys and interviews • Examines many cases in less depth • Wording effect • Random sampling • Utilizes random sampling of population for best results Macduff Everton/The Image Bank/Getty Images Research Strategies: Correlation ▪ General Definition: an observation that two traits or attributes are related to each other (thus, they are “co”-related) ▪ Scientific definition: a measure of how closely two factors vary together, or how well you can predict a change in one from observing a change in the other Macduff Everton/The Image Bank/Getty Images Correlation ▪ Positive correlation (between 0 and +1.00) ▪ Indicates a direct relationship, meaning that two things increase together or decrease together ▪ Negative correlation (between 0 and −1.00) ▪ Indicates an inverse relationship: As one thing increases, the other decreases. ▪ Correlation coefficient ▪ Provides a statistical measure of how closely two things vary together and how well one predicts the other Macduff Everton/The Image Bank/Getty Images SCATTERPLOTS, SHOWING PATTERNS OF CORRELATION Correlations can range from +1.00 (scores on one measure increase in direct proportion to scores on another), to 0.00 (no relationship), to –1.00 (scores on one measure decrease precisely as scores rise on the other). Macduff Everton/The Image Bank/Getty Images Correlation and Causation ▪ No matter how strong the relationship, correlation does not prove causation. ▪ Correlation indicates the possibility of a cause- effect relationship, but does not prove it. Macduff Everton/The Image Bank/Getty Images Research Strategies: Experimentation ▪ With experiments, researchers can focus on the possible effects of one or more factors in several ways. ▪ Manipulating the factors of interest to determine their effects ▪ Holding constant (“controlling”) other factors ▪ Experimental group and control group Macduff Everton/The Image Bank/Getty Images Experimentation Variables that is manipulated; Independent variable • Factor the variable whose effect is in an experiment being studied other than the Confounding variable • Factor independent variable that in an experiment might produce an effect Dependent variable in an experiment • Factor that is measured; the variable that may change when the independent variable is manipulated Macduff Everton/The Image Bank/Getty Images Comparing Research Methods Research Method Basic Purpose How Conducted Descriptive To observe and record behavior Do case studies, naturalistic observations, or surveys Correlational Experimental What Is Manipulated Weaknesses Nothing No control of variables; single cases may be misleading To detect naturally occurring Collect data on two relationships; to or more variables; Nothing assess how well no manipulation one variable predicts another Cannot specify cause and effect To explore cause and effect Manipulate one or more factors; use random assignment The independent variable(s) Sometimes not feasible; results may not generalize to other contexts; not ethical to manipulate certain variables