The Science of "Muddling Through" PDF 1959

The Science of "Muddling Through" Author(s): Charles E. Lindblom Source: Public Administration Review , Spring, 1959, Vol. 19, No. 2 (Spring, 1959), pp. 79-88 Published by: Wiley on behalf of the American Society for Public Administration Stable URL: https://www.jstor.org/stable/973677 JSTOR is a...

The Science of "Muddling Through" Author(s): Charles E. Lindblom Source: Public Administration Review , Spring, 1959, Vol. 19, No. 2 (Spring, 1959), pp. 79-88 Published by: Wiley on behalf of the American Society for Public Administration Stable URL: https://www.jstor.org/stable/973677 JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact [email protected]. Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of the Terms & Conditions of Use, available at https://about.jstor.org/terms Wiley and American Society for Public Administration are collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to Public Administration Review This content downloaded from 145.5.180.36 on Fri, 01 Sep 2023 11:18:06 +00:00 All use subject to https://about.jstor.org/terms  The Science of Muddling Through By CHARLES E. LINDBLOM Associate Professor of Economics Yale University > Short courses, books, and articles exhort admin- istrators to make decisions more methodically, but there has been little analysis of the decision-making process now used by public administrators. The SUPPOSE an administrator is given respon- usual process is investigated here-and generally de- sibility for formulating policy with re- fended against proposals for more "scientific" meth- spect to inflation. He might start by try- ods. ing to list all related values in order of Decisions of individual administrators, of course, importance, e.g., full employment, reasonable must be integrated with decisions of others to form the mosaic of public policy. This integration business profit, protection of small savings, of individual decisions has become the major con- prevention of a stock market crash. Then all cern of organization theory, and the way individuals possible policy outcomes could be rated as make decisions necessarily affects the way those de- more or less efficient in attaining a maximum cisions are best meshed with others'. In addition, decision-making method relates to allocation of de- of these values. This would of course require cision-making responsibility-who should make what a prodigious inquiry into values held by decision. members of society and an equally prodigious More "scientific" decision-making also is dis- set of calculations on how much of each value cussed in this issue: "Tools for Decision-Making in Resources Planning." is equal to how much of each other value. He could then proceed to outline all possible policy alternatives. In a third step, he would undertake systematic comparison of his multi- ployment. He would in fact disregard most tude of alternatives to determine which at- other social values as beyond his present in- tains the greatest amount of values. terest, and he would for the moment not even In comparing policies, he would take ad- attempt to rank the few values that he re- vantage of any theory available that general- garded as immediately relevant. Were he ized about classes of policies. In considering pressed, he would quickly admit that he was inflation, for example, he would compare all ignoring many related values and many pos- policies in the light of the theory of prices. sible important consequences of his policies. Since no alternatives are beyond his investi- As a second step, he would outline those gation, he would consider strict central con- relatively few policy alternatives that occurred trol and the abolition of all prices and mar- to him. He would then compare them. In kets on the one hand and elimination of all comparing his limited number of alternatives, public controls with reliance completely on inost of them familiar from past controversies, the free market on the other, both in the light he would not ordinarily find a body of theory of whatever theoretical generalizations he precise enough to carry him through a com- could find on such hypothetical economies. parison of their respective consequences. In- Finally, he would try to make the choice stead he would rely heavily on the record of that would in fact maximize his values. past experience with small policy steps to pre- An alternative line of attack would be to dict the consequences of similar steps ex- set as his principal objective, either explicitlytended into the future. or without conscious thought, the relatively Moreover, he would find that the policy al- simple goal of keeping prices level. This ob- ternatives combined objectives or values in jective might be compromised or complicated different ways. For example, one policy might by only a few other goals, such as full em- offer price level stability at the cost of some 79 This content downloaded from 145.5.180.36 on Fri, 01 Sep 2023 11:18:06 +00:00 All use subject to https://about.jstor.org/terms 8o PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION REVIEW risk of unemployment; another might offer process-usually describe the first approach less price stability but also less risk of unem- and not the second.' ployment. Hence, the next step in his ap- The common tendency to describe policy proach-the final selection-would combine formulation even for complex problems as into one the choice among values and the though it followed the first approach has been choice among instruments for reaching values. strengthened by the attention given to, and It would not, as in the first method of policy- successes enjoyed by, operations research, sta- making, approximate a more mechanical proc- tistical decision theory, and systems analysis. ess of choosing the means that best satisfied The hallmarks of these procedures, typical of goals that were previously clarified and the first approach, are clarity of objective, ex- ranked. Because practitioners of the second plicitness of evaluation, a high degree of com- approach expect to achieve their goals only prehensiveness of overview, and, wherever partially, they would expect to repeat end- possible, quantification of values for mathe- lessly the sequence just described, as condi- matical analysis. But these advanced proce- tions and aspirations changed and as accuracy dures remain largely the appropriate tech- of prediction improved. niques of relatively small-scale problem-solving where the total number of variables to be considered is small and value problems re- By Root or by Branch stricted. Charles Hitch, head of the Economics For complex problems, the first of these Division of RAND Corporation, one of the two approaches is of course impossible. Al- leading centers for application of these tech- though such an approach can be described, it niques, has written: cannot be practiced except for relatively sim- ple problems and even then only in a some- I would make the empirical generalization from what modified form. It assumes intellectual my experience at RAND and elsewhere that oper- ations research is the art of sub-optimizing, i.e., of capacities and sources of information that solving some lower-level problems, and that diffi- men simply do not possess, and it is even more culties increase and our special competence di- absurd as an approach to policy when the minishes by an order of magnitude with every level time and money that can be allocated to a of decision making we attempt to ascend. The sort policy problem is limited, as is always the of simple explicit model which operations re- case. Of particular importance to public ad- searchers are so proficient in using can certainly reflect most of the significant factors influencing ministrators is the fact that public agencies traffic control on the George Washington Bridge, are in effect usually instructed not to practice but the proportion of the relevant reality which the first method. That is to say, their pre- we can represent by any such model or models in scribed functions and constraints-the politi- studying, say, a major foreign-policy decision, ap- cally or legally possible-restrict their atten- pears to be almost trivial. tion to relatively few values and relatively Accordingly, I propose in this paper to few alternative policies among the countless clarify and formalize the second method, alternatives that might be imagined. It is the second method that is practiced. 1 James G. March and Herbert A. Simon similarly characterize the literature. They also take some im- Curiously, however, the literatures of deci- portant steps, as have Simon's recent articles, to de- sion-making, policy formulation, planning, scribe a less heroic model of policy-making. See Or- and public administration formalize the first ganizations (John Wiley and Sons, 1958), p. 137. approach rather than the second, leaving pub- 2Operations Research and National Planning-A Dissent," 5 Operations Research 718 (October, 1957). lic administrators who handle complex deci- Hitch's dissent is from particular points made in the sions in the position of practicing what few article to which his paper is a reply; his claim that preach. For emphasis I run some risk of over- operations research is for low-level problems is widely accepted. statement. True enough, the literature is well For examples of the kind of problems to which op- aware of limits on man's capacities and of the erations research is applied, see C. W. Churchman, inevitability that policies will be approached R. L. Ackoff and E. L. Arnoff, Introduction to Opera- tions Research (John Wiley and Sons, 1957); and J. F. in some such style as the second. But attempts McCloskey and J. M. Coppinger (eds.), Operations Re- to formalize rational policy formulation-to search for Management, Vol. II, (The Johns Hopkins lay out explicitly the necessary steps in the Press, 1956). This content downloaded from 145.5.180.36 on Fri, 01 Sep 2023 11:18:06 +00:00 All use subject to https://about.jstor.org/terms  THE SCIENCE OF "MUDDLING THROUGH" 81 much neglected in the literature. This might ited comparisons is to see how the root be described as the method of successive lim- method often breaks down in its handling of ited comparisons. I will contrast it with the first values or objectives. The idea that values approach, which might be called the rational- should be clarified, and in advance of the ex- comprehensive method.3 More impressionis- amination of alternative policies, is appeal- tically and briefly-and therefore generally ing. But what happens when we attempt it used in this article-they could be character- for complex social problems? The first diffi- ized as the branch method and root method, culty is that on many critical values or objec- the former continually building out from the tives, citizens disagree, congressmen disagree, current situation, step-by-step and by small and public administrators disagree. Even degrees; the latter starting from fundamentals where a fairly specific objective is prescribed anew each time, building on the past only as for the administrator, there remains consid- experience is embodied in a theory, and al- erable room for disagreement on sub-objec- ways prepared to start completely from the tives. Consider, for example, the conflict with ground up. respect to locating public housing, described Let us put the characteristics of the two in Meyerson and Banfield's study of the Chi- methods side by side in simplest terms. Rational-Comprehensive (Root) Successive Limited Comparisons (Branch) la. Clarification of values or objectives distinct from ib. Selection of value goals and empirical analysis of and usually prerequisite to empirical analysis of the needed action are not distinct from one an- alternative policies. other but are closely intertwined. 2a. Policy-formulation is therefore approached through 2b. Since means and ends are not distinct, means-end means-end analysis: First the ends are isolated, analysis is often inappropriate or limited. then the means to achieve them are sought. 3a. The test of a "good" policy is that it can be shown 3b. The test of a "good" policy is typically that vari- to be the most appropriate means to desired ends. ous analysts find themselves directly agreeing on a policy (without their agreeing that it is the most appropriate means to an agreed objective). 4a. Analysis is comprehensive; every important rele- 4b. Analysis is drastically limited: vant factor is taken into account. i) Important possible outcomes are neglected. ii) Important alternative potential policies are neglected. iii) Important affected values are neglected. 5a. Theory is often heavily relied upon. 5b. A succession of comparisons greatly reduces or eliminates reliance on theory. Assuming that the root method is familiar and understandable, we proceed directly to cago Housing Authority4-disagreement which clarification of its alternative by contrast. In occurred despite the clear objective of provid- explaining the second, we shall be describing ing a certain number of public housing units how most administrators do in fact approach in the city. Similarly conflicting are objectives complex questions, for the root method, the in highway location, traffic control, minimum "best" way as a blueprint or model, is in fact wage administration, development of tourist not workable for complex policy questions, facilities in national parks, or insect control. and administrators are forced to use the Administrators cannot escape these con- method of successive limited comparisons. flicts by ascertaining the majority's preference, for preferences have not been registered on Intertwining Evaluation and Empirical most issues; indeed, there often are no prefer- Analysis (lb) ences in the absence of public discussion suffi- The quickest way to understand how values cient to bring an issue to the attention of the are handled in the method of successive lim- electorate. Furthermore, there is a question 'II am assuming that administrators often make pol- icy and advise in the making of policy and am treating4 Martin Meyerson and Edward C. Banfield, Politics, decision-making and policy-making as synonymous for Planning and the Public Interest (The Free Press, purposes of this paper. 1955). This content downloaded from 145.5.180.36 on Fri, 01 Sep 2023 11:18:06 +00:00 All use subject to https://about.jstor.org/terms  82 PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION REVIEW of whether intensity of feeling state marginal objectives or should be values con-except in sidered as well as the number of persons pre- terms of particular policies. That one value ferring each alternative. By the impossibility is preferred to another in one decision situa- of doing otherwise, administrators often are tion does not mean that it will be preferred reduced to deciding policy without clarifying in another decision situation in which it can objectives first. be had only at great sacrifice of another value. Even when an administrator resolves to fol- Attempts to rank or order values in general low his own values as a criterion for decisions, and abstract terms so that they do not shift he often will not know how to rank them from decision to decision end up by ignoring when they conflict with one another, as they the relevant marginal preferences. The sig- usually do. Suppose, for example, that an ad- nificance of this third point thus goes very ministrator must relocate tenants living in far. Even if all administrators had at hand an tenements scheduled for destruction. One ob- agreed set of values, objectives, and con- jective is to empty the buildings fairly straints, and an agreed ranking of these val- promptly, another is to find suitable accom- ues, objectives, and constraints, their mar- modation for persons displaced, another is to ginal values in actual choice situations would avoid friction with residents in other areas in be impossible to formulate. which a large influx would be unwelcome, an- Unable consequently to formulate the rele- other is to deal with all concerned through vant values first and then choose among poli- persuasion if possible, and so on. cies to achieve them, administrators must How does one state even to himself the choose directly among alternative policies that relative importance of these partially con- offer different marginal combinations of val- flicting values? A simple ranking of them is ues. Somewhat paradoxically, the only practi- not enough; one needs ideally to know how cable way to disclose one's relevant marginal much of one value is worth sacrificing for values even to oneself is to describe the policy some of another value. The answer is that one chooses to achieve them. Except roughly typically the administrator chooses-and must and vaguely, I know of no way to describe- choose-directly among policies in which these or even to understand-what my relative eval- values are combined in different ways. He uations are for, say, freedom and security, cannot first clarify his values and then choosespeed and accuracy in governmental decisions, among policies. or low taxes and better schools than to de- A more subtle third point underlies both scribe my preferences among specific policy the first two. Social objectives do not always choices that might be made between the al- have the same relative values. One objective ternatives in each of the pairs. may be highly prized in one circumstance, In summary, two aspects of the process by another in another circumstance. If, for ex- which values are actually handled can be dis- ample, an administrator values highly both tinguished. The first is clear: evaluation and the dispatch with which his agency can carry empirical analysis are intertwined; that is, through its projects and good public relations,one chooses among values and among policies it matters little which of the two possibly con- at one and the same time. Put a little more flicting values he favors in some abstract or elaborately, one simultaneously chooses a pol- general sense. Policy questions arise in formsicy to attain certain objectives and chooses which put to administrators such a question the objectives themselves. The second aspect as: Given the degree to which we are or are is related but distinct: the administrator fo- not already achieving the values of dispatch cuses his attention on marginal or incremen- and the values of good public relations, is it tal values. Whether he is aware of it or not, worth sacrificing a little speed for a happier he does not find general formulations of objectives very helpful and in fact makes spe- clientele, or is it better to risk offending the clientele so that we can get on with our work? cific marginal or incremental comparisons. The answer to such a question varies with Two policies, X and Y, confront him. Both circumstances. promise the same degree of attainment of ob- The value problem is, as the example jectives a, b, c, d, and e. But X promises him shows, always a problem of adjustments at a somewhat more of f than does Y, while Y margin. But there is no practicable way to promises him somewhat more of g than does This content downloaded from 145.5.180.36 on Fri, 01 Sep 2023 11:18:06 +00:00 All use subject to https://about.jstor.org/terms  THE SCIENCE OF "MUDDLING THROUGH" 83 X. In choosing between them, he is in fact wise or foolish decision if he is without prior offered the alternative of a marginal or incre- values or objectives by which to judge his de- mental amount of f at the expense of a mar- cisions? The answer to this question calls up ginal or incremental amount of g. The only the third distinctive difference between root values that are relevant to his choice are and branch methods: how to decide the best these increments by which the two policies policy. differ; and, when he finally chooses between the two marginal values, he does so by mak- The Test of "Good" Policy (3b) ing a choice between policies.5 In the root method, a decision is "correct," As to whether the attempt to clarify ob- "good," or "rational" if it can be shown to at- jectives in advance of policy selection is more tain some specified objective, where the objec- or less rational than the close intertwining of tive can be specified without simply describing marginal evaluation and empirical analysis, the decision itself. Where objectives are de- the principal difference established is that for fined only through the marginal or incremen- complex problems the first is impossible and tal approach to values described above, it is irrelevant, and the second is both possible and still sometimes possible to test whether a pol- relevant. The second is possible because the icy does in fact attain the desired objectives; administrator need not try to analyze any but a precise statement of the objectives takes values except the values by which alternative the form of a description of the policy chosen policies differ and need not be concerned with or some alternative to it. To show that a pol- them except as they differ marginally. His icy is mistaken one cannot offer an abstract need for information on values or objectives argument that important objectives are not is drastically reduced as compared with the achieved; one must instead argue that another root method; and his capacity for grasping, policy is more to be preferred. comprehending, and relating values to one an- So far, the departure from customary ways other is not strained beyond the breaking of looking at problem-solving is not trouble- point. some, for many administrators will be quick to agree that the most effective discussion of Relations Between Means and Ends (2b) the correctness of policy does take the form of Decision-making is ordinarily formalized as comparison with other policies that might a means-ends relationship: means are con- have been chosen. But what of the situation ceived to be evaluated and chosen in the in which administrators cannot agree on val- light of ends finally selected independently of ues or objectives, either abstractly or in mar- and prior to the choice of means. This is the ginal terms? What then is the test of "good" means-ends relationship of the root method. policy? For the root method, there is no test. But it follows from all that has just been said Agreement on objectives failing, there is no that such a means-ends relationship is possible standard of "correctness." For the method of only to the extent that values are agreed successive limited comparisons, the test is upon, are reconcilable, and are stable at the agreement on policy itself, which remains pos- margin. Typically, therefore, such a means- sible even when agreement on values is not. ends relationship is absent from the branch It has been suggested that continuing agree- method, where means and ends are simul- ment in Congress on the desirability of ex- taneously chosen. tending old age insurance stems from liberal Yet any departure from the means-ends re- desires to strengthen the welfare programs of lationship of the root method will strike some the federal government and from conservative readers as inconceivable. For it will appear to desires to reduce union demands for private them that only in such a relationship is it pos- pension plans. If so, this is an excellent dem- sible to determine whether one policy choice onstration of the ease with which individuals is better or worse than another. How can an of different ideologies often can agree on con- administrator know whether he has made a crete policy. Labor mediators report a similar phenomenon: the contestants cannot agree on 'The line of argument is, of course, an extension of the theory of market choice, especially the theory of criteria for settling their disputes but can consumer choice, to public policy choices. agree on specific proposals. Similarly, when This content downloaded from 145.5.180.36 on Fri, 01 Sep 2023 11:18:06 +00:00 All use subject to https://about.jstor.org/terms  84 PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION REVIEW one administrator's objective turns out to be ban services. Nor, to follow another line of another's means, they often can agree on repercussions, can he work through the soil policy. bank program's effects on prices for agricul- Agreement on policy thus becomes the only tural products in foreign markets and conse- practicable test of the policy's correctness. quent implications for foreign relations, in- And for one administrator to seek to win the cluding those arising out of economic rivalry other over to agreement on ends as well between the United States and the U.S.S.R. would accomplish nothing and create quite In the method of successive limited unnecessary controversy. comparisons, simplification is systematically If agreement directly on policy as a test achieved in two principal ways. First, it is for "best" policy seems a poor substitute for achieved through limitation of policy com- testing the policy against its objectives, it parisons to those policies that differ in rela- ought to be remembered that objectives them- tively small degree from policies presently in selves have no ultimate validity other than effect. Such a limitation immediately reduces they are agreed upon. Hence agreement is the number of alternatives to be investigated the test of "best" policy in both methods. But and also drastically simplifies the character of where the root method requires agreement on the investigation of each. For it is not necessary what elements in the decision constitute ob- to undertake fundamental inquiry into an al- jectives and on which of these objectives ternative and its consequences; it is necessary should be sought, the branch method falls only to study those respects in which the pro- back on agreement wherever it can be found. posed alternative and its consequences differ In an important sense, therefore, it is not from the status quo. The empirical compari- irrational for an administrator to defend a son of marginal differences among alternative policy as good without being able to specify policies that differ only marginally is, of what it is good for. course, a counterpart to the incremental or marginal comparison of values discussed Non-Comprehensive Analysis (4b) above.6 Ideally, rational-comprehensive analysis Relevance as Well as Realism leaves out nothing important. But it is impos- It is a matter of common observation that sible to take everything important into con- in Western democracies public administrators sideration unless "important" is so narrowly and policy analysts in general do largely limit defined that analysis is in fact quite limited. their analyses to incremental or marginal Limits on human intellectual capacities and differences in policies that are chosen to differ on available information set definite limits to only incrementally. They do not do so, how- man's capacity to be comprehensive. In actual ever, solely because they desperately need some fact, therefore, no one can practice the ra- way to simplify their problems; they also do so tional-comprehensive method for really com- in order to be relevant. Democracies change plex problems, and every administrator faced their policies almost entirely through in- with a sufficiently complex problem must find cremental adjustments. Policy does not move ways drastically to simplify. in leaps and bounds. An administrator assisting in the formula- The incremental character of political tion of agricultural economic policy cannot change in the United States has often been re- in the first place be competent on all possible marked. The two major political parties agree policies. He cannot even comprehend one pol- on fundamentals; they offer alternative poli- icy entirely. In planning a soil bank program, cies to the voters only on relatively small he cannot successfully anticipate the impact points of difference. Both parties favor full of higher or lower farm income on, say, ur- employment, but they define it somewhat banization-the possible consequent loosening differently; both favor the development of of family ties, possible consequent eventual need for revisions in social security and fur- 6 A more precise definition of incremental policies and a discussion of whether a change that appears ther implications for tax problems arising out "small" to one observer might be seen differently by of new federal responsibilities for social se- another is to be found in my "Policy Analysis," 48 curity and municipal responsibilities for ur- American Economic Review 2g8 (June, 1958). This content downloaded from 145.5.180.36 on Fri, 01 Sep 2023 11:18:06 +00:00 All use subject to https://about.jstor.org/terms  THE SCIENCE OF "MUDDLING THROUGH" 85 water power resources, but in slightly different helpful division of labor would be achieved, ways; and both favor unemployment compen- and no agency need find its task beyond its sation, but not the same level of benefits. capacities. The shortcomings of such a system Similarly, shifts of policy within a party take would be that one agency might destroy a place largely through a series of relatively value either before another agency could be small changes, as can be seen in their only activated to safeguard it or in spite of another gradual acceptance of the idea of govern- agency's efforts. But the possibility that im- mental responsibility for support of the un- portant values may be lost is present in any employed, a change in party positions begin- form of organization, even where agencies ning in the early 30's and culminating in a attempt to comprehend in planning more sense in the Employment Act of 1946. than is humanly possible. Party behavior is in turn rooted in public The virtue of such a hypothetical division attitudes, and political theorists cannot con- of labor is that every important interest or ceive of democracy's surviving in the United value has its watchdog. And these watchdogs States in the absence of fundamental agree- can protect the interests in their jurisdiction ment on potentially disruptive issues, with in two quite different ways: first, by redressing consequent limitation of policy debates to damages done by other agencies; and, second, relatively small differences in policy. by anticipating and heading off injury before Since the policies ignored by the adminis- it occurs. trator are politically impossible and so irrele- In a society like that of the United States in vant, the simplification of analysis achieved which individuals are free to combine to by concentrating on policies that differ only pursue almost any possible common interest incrementally is not a capricious kind of they might have and in which government simplification. In addition, it can be argued agencies are sensitive to the pressures of these that, given the limits on knowledge within groups, the system described is approximated, which policy-makers are confined, simplifying Almost every interest has its watchdog. With- by limiting the focus to small variations from out claiming that every interest has a suffi- present policy makes the most of available ciently powerful watchdog, it can be argued knowledge. Because policies being considered that our system often can assure a more com- are like present and past policies, the ad- prehensive regard for the values of the whole ministrator can obtain information and claim society than any attempt at intellectual com- some insight. Non-incremental policy pro- prehensiveness. posals are therefore typically not only politi- In the United States, for example, no part cally irrelevant but also unpredictable in their of government attempts a comprehensive consequences. overview of policy on income distribution. A The second method of simplification of policy nevertheless evolves, and one respond- analysis is the practice of ignoring important ing to a wide variety of interests. A process of possible consequences of possible policies, as mutual adjustment among farm groups, labor well as the values attached to the neglected unions, municipalities and school boards, tax consequences. If this appears to disclose a authorities, and government agencies with re- shocking shortcoming of successive limited sponsibilities in the fields of housing, health, comparisons, it can be replied that, even if highways, national parks, fire, and police ac- the exclusions are random, policies may never- complishes a distribution of income in which theless be more intelligently formulated than particular income problems neglected at one through futile attempts to achieve a compre- point in the decision processes become central hensiveness beyond human capacity. Actually, at another point. however, the exclusions, seeming arbitrary or Mutual adjustment is more pervasive than random from one point of view, need be the explicit forms it takes in negotiation be- neither. tween groups; it persists through the mutual impacts of groups upon each other even Achieving a Degree of Comprehensiveness where they are not in communication. For Suppose that each value neglected by one all the imperfections and latent dangers in policy-making agency were a major concern this ubiquitous process of mutual adjustment, of at least one other agency. In that case, a it will often accomplish an adaptation of pol- This content downloaded from 145.5.180.36 on Fri, 01 Sep 2023 11:18:06 +00:00 All use subject to https://about.jstor.org/terms 86 PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION REVIEW icies to a wider range of interests than could Succession of Comparisons (5b) be done by one group centrally. The final distinctive element in the branch Note, too, how the incremental pattern of method is that the comparisons, together with policy-making fits with the multiple pressure the policy choice, proceed in a chronological pattern. For when decisions are only incre- series. Policy is not made once and for all; it mental-closely related to known policies, it is is made and re-made endlessly. Policy-making easier for one group to anticipate the kind of is a process of successive approximation to moves another might make and easier too for some desired objectives in which what is de- it to make correction for injury already ac- sired itself continues to change under recon- complished.7 sideration. Even partisanship and narrowness, to use Making policy is at best a very rough proc- pejorative terms, will sometimes be assets to ess. Neither social scientists, nor politicians, rational decision-making, for they can doubly nor public administrators yet know enough insure that what one agency neglects, another about the social world to avoid repeated error will not; they specialize personnel to distinct in predicting the consequences of policy points of view. The claim is valid that effec- moves. A wise policy-maker consequently ex- tive rational coordination of the federal ad- pects that his policies will achieve only part ministration, if possible to achieve at all, of what he hopes and at the same time will would require an agreed set of values8-if produce unanticipated consequences he would rationala" is defined as the practice of the have preferred to avoid. If he proceeds root method of decision-making. But a high through a succession of incremental changes, degree of administrative coordination occurs he avoids serious lasting mistakes in several as each agency adjusts its policies to the con- ways. cerns of the other agencies in the process of In the first place, past sequences of policy fragmented decision-making I have just de- steps have given him knowledge about the scribed. probable consequences of further similar For all the apparent shortcomings of the steps. Second, he need not attempt big jumps incremental approach to policy alternatives toward his goals that would require predic- with its arbitrary exclusion coupled with frag- tions beyond his or anyone else's knowledge, mentation, when compared to the root because he never expects his policy to be a method, the branch method often looks far final resolution of a problem. His decision is superior. In the root method, the inevitable only one step, one that if successful can exclusion of factors is accidental, unsystem- quickly be followed by another. Third, he is atic, and not defensible by any argument so in effect able to test his previous predictions far developed, while in the branch method as he moves on to each further step. Lastly, the exclusions are deliberate, systematic, and he often can remedy a past error fairly quickly-more quickly than if policy pro- defensible. Ideally, of course, the root method ceeded through more distinct steps widely does not exclude; in practice it must. spaced in time. Nor does the branch method necessarily Compare this comparative analysis of in- neglect long-run considerations and objec- cremental changes with the aspiration to em- tives. It is clear that important values must be ploy theory in the root method. Man cannot omitted in considering policy, and sometimes think without classifying, without subsuming the only way long-run objectives can be given one experience under a more general category adequate attention is through the neglect of of experiences. The attempt to push categori- short-run considerations. But the values omit- zation as far as possible and to find general ted can be either long-run or short-run. propositions which can be applied to specific situations is what I refer to with the word "The link between the practice of the method of successive limited comparisons and mutual adjustment "theory." Where root analysis often leans of interests in a highly fragmented decision-making heavily on theory in this sense, the branch process adds a new facet to pluralist theories of govern- method does not. ment and administration. The assumption of root analysts is that "Herbert Simon, Donald W. Smithburg, and Victor theory is the most systematic and economical A. Thompson, Public Administration (Alfred A. Knopf, 1950), p. 434. way to bring relevant knowledge to bear on a This content downloaded from 145.5.180.36 on Fri, 01 Sep 2023 11:18:06 +00:00 All use subject to https://about.jstor.org/terms  THE SCIENCE OF "MUDDLING THROUGH" 87 specific problem. Granting the assumption, pants" than when following the advice of an unhappy fact is that we do not have ade- theorists. Theorists often ask the administra- quate theory to apply to problems in any tor to go the long way round to the solution policy area, although theory is more adequate of his problems, in effect ask him to follow in some areas-monetary policy, for example- the best canons of the scientific method, when than in others. Comparative analysis, as in the administrator knows that the best avail- the branch method, is sometimes a systematic able theory will work less well than more alternative to theory. modest incremental comparisons. Theorists Suppose an administrator must choose do not realize that the administrator is often among a small group of policies that differ in fact practicing a systematic method. It only incrementally from each other and from would be foolish to push this explanation too present policy. He might aspire to "under- far, for sometimes practical decision-makers stand" each of the alternatives-for example, are pursuing neither a theoretical approach to know all the consequences of each aspect nor successive comparisons, nor any other sys- of each policy. If so, he would indeed require tematic method. theory. In fact, however, he would usually de- It may be worth emphasizing that theory is cide that, for policy-making purposes, he need sometimes of extremely limited helpfulness in know, as explained above, only the conse- policy-making for at least two rather different quences of each of those aspects of the policies reasons. It is greedy for facts; it can be con- in which they differed from one another. For structed only through a great collection of ob- this much more modest aspiration, he requires servations. And it is typically insufficiently no theory (although it might be helpful, if precise for application to a policy process that available), for he can proceed to isolate prob- moves through small changes. In contrast, the able differences by examing the differences in comparative method both economizes on the consequences associated with past differences need for facts and directs the analyst's atten- in policies, a feasible program because he can tion to just those facts that are relevant to the take his observations from a long sequence of fine choices faced by the decision-maker. incremental changes. With respect to precision of theory, eco- For example, without a more comprehen- nomic theory serves as an example. It predicts sive social theory about juvenile delinquency that an economy without money or prices than scholars have yet produced, one cannot would in certain specified ways misallocate possibly understand the ways in which a va- resources, but this finding pertains to an al- riety of public policies-say on education, ternative far removed from the kind of poli- housing, recreation, employment, race rela- cies on which administrators need help. On tions, and policing-might encourage or dis- the other hand, it is not precise enough to courage delinquency. And one needs such an predict the consequences of policies restrict- understanding if he undertakes the compre- ing business mergers, and this is the kind of hensive overview of the problem prescribed in issue on which the administrators need help. the models of the root method. If, however, Only in relatively restricted areas does eco- one merely wants to mobilize knowledge suf- nomic theory achieve sufficient precision to go ficient to assist in a choice among a small far in resolving policy questions; its helpful- group of similar policies-alternative policies ness in policy-making is always so limited that on juvenile court procedures, for example- it requires supplementation through compar- he can do so by comparative analysis of the ative analysis. results of similar past policy moves. Successive Comparison as a System Theorists and Practitioners Successive limited comparisons is, then, in- This difference explains-in some cases at deed a method or system; it is not a failure of least-why the administrator often feels that method for which administrators ought to the outside expert or academic problem- apologize. None the less, its imperfections, solver is sometimes not helpful and why they which have not been explored in this paper, in turn often urge more theory on him. And are many. For example, the method is without it explains why an administrator often feels a built-in safeguard for all relevant values, more confident when "flying by the seat of his and it also may lead the decision-maker to This content downloaded from 145.5.180.36 on Fri, 01 Sep 2023 11:18:06 +00:00 All use subject to https://about.jstor.org/terms 88 PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION REVIEW overlook excellent policies for no other rea- quences of clarification of the method is the son than that they are not suggested by the light it throws on the suspicion an adminis- chain of successive policy steps leading up to trator sometimes entertains that a consultant the present. Hence, it ought to be said that or adviser is not speaking relevantly and re- under this method, as well as under some of sponsibly when in fact by all ordinary objec- the most sophisticated variants of the root tive evidence he is. The trouble lies in the fact method-operations research, for example- that most of us approach policy problems policies will continue to be as foolish as they within a framework given by our view of a are wise. chain of successive policy choices made up to Why then bother to describe the method in the present. One's thinking about appropriate all the above detail? Because it is in fact a policies with respect, say, to urban traffic con- common method of policy formulation, and trol is greatly influenced by one's knowledge is, for complex problems, the principal reli- of the incremental steps taken up to the pres- ance of administrators as well as of other ent. An administrator enjoys an intimate policy analysts.9 And because it will be su- knowledge of his past sequences that "out- perior to any other decision-making method siders" do not share, and his thinking and available for complex problems in many cir- that of the "outsider" will consequently be cumstances, certainly superior to a futile at- different in ways that may puzzle both. Both tempt at superhuman comprehensiveness. may appear to be talking intelligently, yet The reaction of the public administrator to each may find the other unsatisfactory. The the exposition of method doubtless will be relevance of the policy chain of succession is less a discovery of a new method than a better even more clear when an American tries to acquaintance with an old. But by becoming discuss, say, antitrust policy with a Swiss, for more conscious of their practice of this the chains of policy in the two countries are method, administrators might practice it with strikingly different and the two individuals more skill and know when to extend or con- consequently have organized their knowledge strict its use. (That they sometimes practice it in quite different ways. effectively and sometimes not may explain the If this phenomenon is a barrier to commu- extremes of opinion on "muddling through," nication, an understanding of it promises an which is both praised as a highly sophisticated enrichment of intellectual interaction in pol- form of problem-solving and denounced as no icy formulation. Once the source of difference method at all. For I suspect that in so far as is understood, it will sometimes be stimulat- ing for an administrator to seek out a policy there is a system in what is known as "mud- analyst whose recent experience is with a pol- dling through," this method is it.) icy chain different from his own. One of the noteworthy incidental conse- This raises again a question only briefly 9 Elsewhere I have explored this same method of discussed above on the merits of like-minded- policy formulation as practiced by academic analysts ness among government administrators. While of policy ("Policy Analysis," 48 American Economic much of organization theory argues the vir- Review 298 [June, 1958]). Although it has been here presented as a method for public administrators, it is tues of common values and agreed organiza- no less necessary to analysts more removed from im- tional objectives, for complex problems in mediate policy questions, despite their tendencies to which the root method is inapplicable, agen- describe their own analytical efforts as though they cies will want among their own personnel two were the rational-comprehensive method with an espe- cially heavy use of theory. Similarly, this same method types of diversification: administrators whose is inevitably resorted to in personal problem-solving, thinking is organized by reference to policy where means and ends are sometimes impossible to chains other than those familiar to most mem- separate, where aspirations or objectives undergo con- bers of the organization and, even more com- stant development, and where drastic simplification of monly, administrators whose professional or the complexity of the real world is urgent if problems are to be solved in the time that can be given to them. personal values or interests create diversity of To an economist accustomed to dealing with the mar- view (perhaps coming from different special- ginal or incremental concept in market processes, the ties, social classes, geographical areas) so that, central idea in the method is that both evaluation and even within a single agency, decision-making empirical analysis are incremental. Accordingly I have referred to the method elsewhere as "the incremental can be fragmented and parts of the agency method." can serve as watchdogs for other parts. This content downloaded from 145.5.180.36 on Fri, 01 Sep 2023 11:18:06 +00:00 All use subject to https://about.jstor.org/terms