Inception Report (Induction of Eco Friendly Buses for Cities of Punjab) 20240930 - V3.pdf

PUNJAB TRANSPORT COMPANY GOVERNMENT OF PUNJAB (GOPb) Induction of Eco-Friendly Buses in Cities of Punjab Inception Report September 2024 Induction of Eco-Friendly Buses in Cities of Punjab – Inception Report Table of Contents 1 Introduction.................................................................................................... 1-1 1.1 Preamble................................................................................................ 1-1 1.2 Introduction to Cities of Punjab.................................................................. 1-1 1.2.1 Gujranwala.......................................................................................... 1-1 1.2.2 Sheikhupura........................................................................................ 1-2 1.2.3 Sialkot................................................................................................ 1-3 1.2.4 Sargodha............................................................................................ 1-4 1.2.5 Gujrat................................................................................................. 1-5 1.2.6 Rahim Yar Khan.................................................................................... 1-7 1.3 Objectives & Outputs of the Study.............................................................. 1-8 1.3.1 Key Objectives.................................................................................... 1-8 1.3.2 Key Outputs....................................................................................... 1-10 1.4 Study Area Visit..................................................................................... 1-10 1.5 Review of Available Plans & Drawings........................................................ 1-11 1.6 Focused Group Discussions (FGD’s) with Stakeholders................................ 1-11 1.7 Methodology......................................................................................... 1-13 1.8 Work Plan:............................................................................................ 1-13 2 Field Surveys.................................................................................................. 2-1 2.1 Introduction............................................................................................ 2-1 2.1.1 Existing Public Transport Route Mapping Surveys...................................... 2-1 2.1.2 Public Transport (PT) Counts & Occupancy Survey..................................... 2-1 2.1.3 Network Inventory Survey..................................................................... 2-9 2.1.4 Public Transport User Interview & Stated Preference Survey..................... 2-11 2.1.5 Boarding and Alighting Survey.............................................................. 2-18 2.2 Preparatory Works for Field Survey & Data Collection.................................. 2-19 2.3 Data Processing & Quality Assurance........................................................ 2-19 Page I Induction of Eco-Friendly Buses in Cities of Punjab – Inception Report 2.3.1 Training and Pre-Testing Survey Sessions............................................... 2-19 2.3.2 Monitoring of Surveys......................................................................... 2-19 2.3.3 Training and Pre-Testing Survey Sessions............................................... 2-19 2.4 Integration with Intercity Buses and Railway Station................................... 2-20 3 Finalization of Routes and Preparations of PT Operations....................................... 3-1 3.1 Identification & Selection of Potential Routes................................................ 3-1 3.2 Demand Estimation & Recommendation of Final Routes................................. 3-2 3.3 Development of Operation Plan.................................................................. 3-3 3.4 Ensuring Operational Sustainability............................................................. 3-4 3.4.1 Technical Aspect:.................................................................................. 3-4 3.4.2 Social Aspect:...................................................................................... 3-4 3.4.3 Financial Aspect:.................................................................................. 3-5 3.4.4 Legal / Institutional Aspects:.................................................................. 3-5 3.5 Fleet Specifications & Functional Requirements............................................ 3-5 3.5.1 Selection of Fuel Technology.................................................................. 3-6 3.5.2 Fleet Composition................................................................................. 3-7 3.5.3 Broader Bus Specifications..................................................................... 3-7 3.5.4 Maintenance Plan for Fleet..................................................................... 3-7 3.6 Project’s Implementation Plan.................................................................... 3-9 3.6.1 Process of Fleet Procurement................................................................. 3-9 3.6.2 Process of Operator’s Procurement........................................................ 3-10 3.6.3 Clubbed or Isolated Approach............................................................... 3-11 3.7 Fare Policy & Structure........................................................................... 3-11 3.7.1 Preparation of Fare Policy..................................................................... 3-12 3.7.2 Types of Fare Structures...................................................................... 3-13 3.8 Non-Fare Revenue................................................................................. 3-13 3.9 Research on Ride Hailing Services............................................................ 3-15 Page II Induction of Eco-Friendly Buses in Cities of Punjab – Inception Report 4 Traffic Management Plan and Concept Design of Bus Depots & Terminals................. 4-1 4.1 Identification of Infrastructure Improvements for Efficient PT Operation............ 4-1 4.2 Bus Depots and Terminal.......................................................................... 4-1 4.3 Components of a Bus Depot...................................................................... 4-1 4.3.1 Parking Spaces..................................................................................... 4-2 4.3.2 Washing Area....................................................................................... 4-2 4.3.3 Fueling Area........................................................................................ 4-2 4.3.4 Underground Fuel Tanks........................................................................ 4-2 4.3.5 Maintenance Area................................................................................. 4-2 4.4 Bus Stops Concept Designs....................................................................... 4-2 4.5 Allied Infrastructure Improvement.............................................................. 4-3 5 Financial & Legal Appraisal and Procurement Modes Analysis................................. 5-1 5.1 Financial Model........................................................................................ 5-1 5.2 Economic Analysis.................................................................................... 5-3 5.2.1 Cost Benefit Analysis and Economic IRR................................................... 5-3 5.3 Financial Analysis & Findings..................................................................... 5-3 Page III Induction of Eco-Friendly Buses in Cities of Punjab – Inception Report List of Tables Table 1-1 List of Key Outputs................................................................................ 1-10 Page IV Induction of Eco-Friendly Buses in Cities of Punjab – Inception Report List of Figures Figure 1-1 Map of Gujranwala City........................................................................... 1-2 Figure 1-2 Map of Sheikhupura City......................................................................... 1-3 Figure 1-3 Map of Sialkot City................................................................................. 1-4 Figure 1-4 Map of Sargodha City............................................................................. 1-5 Figure 1-5 Map of Gujrat City.................................................................................. 1-6 Figure 1-6 Map of Rahim Yar Khan City.................................................................... 1-7 Figure 1-7 Flow chart of the Methodology............................................................... 1-13 Figure 2-1 MBCO Survey Locations for Gujranwala..................................................... 2-2 Figure 2-2 MBCO Survey Locations for Gujrat............................................................ 2-3 Figure 2-3 MBCO Survey Locations for Rahim Yar Khan.............................................. 2-4 Figure 2-4 MBCO Survey Locations for Sargodha....................................................... 2-5 Figure 2-5 MBCO Survey Locations for Sheikhupura................................................... 2-6 Figure 2-6 MBCO Survey Locations for Sialkot........................................................... 2-7 Figure 2-7 Tentative Survey Locations for Gujranwala............................................... 2-11 Figure 2-8 Tentative Survey Locations for Sialkot..................................................... 2-12 Figure 2-9 Tentative Survey Locations for Sargodha................................................. 2-13 Figure 2-10 Tentative Survey Locations for Gujrat.................................................... 2-14 Figure 2-11 Tentative Survey Locations for Sheikhupura........................................... 2-15 Figure 2-12 Tentative Survey Locations for Rahim Yar Khan...................................... 2-16 Figure 3-1 Potential PT Routes identified for Lahore................................................... 3-2 Figure 3-2 Sample Operational Plan......................................................................... 3-4 Figure 3-3 Process of Fleet Procurement................................................................. 3-10 Figure 3-4 Process of Operator's Procurement......................................................... 3-11 Figure 3-5 PT Usage vs Informal Competition........................................................ 3-12 Figure 3-6 Implementation Strategy...................................................................... 3-12 Figure 3-7 Types of Fare Structures....................................................................... 3-13 Figure 3-8 NFR potential inside bus....................................................................... 3-14 Figure 3-9 NFR potential on Bus Stops................................................................... 3-15 Figure 4-1 Proposed Conditions............................................................................... 4-1 Figure 4-2 Bus Stop Plan........................................................................................ 4-3 Figure 4-3 Bus Stop Plan........................................................................................ 4-3 Figure 5-1 Sample Outlook of Financial Analysis........................................................ 5-2 Page V Induction of Eco-Friendly Buses in Cities of Punjab – Inception Report 1 Introduction 1.1 Preamble The government of Punjab (GoPb) intends to induct eco-friendly urban buses for the cities of Punjab through Punjab Transport Company (PTC), to facilitate the public and contribute to the improvement of environment of the city. In this regard PTC has hired a consortium of Exponent Engineers (Pvt.) Ltd and The Urban Unit to undertake a Feasibility study for the project. This report i.e., ‘Inception Report for Induction of Eco-Friendly Buses in cities of Punjab’ highlights the methodology to be adopted for the study. 1.2 Introduction to Cities of Punjab 1.2.1 Gujranwala Gujranwala is a city and capital of Gujranwala Division located in Punjab. It is also known as "City of Wrestlers" and is quite famous for its food. The city is Pakistan's 5th most-populous metropolitan area. Founded in the 18th century, Gujranwala is a relatively modern town compared to the many nearby millennia-old cities of northern Punjab. 1.2.1.1 Road Transportation Gujranwala is situated along the historic Grand Trunk Road that connects Peshawar to Islamabad and Lahore. The Grand Trunk Road also provides access to the Afghan border via the Khyber Pass, with onward connections to Kabul and Central Asia via the Salang Pass. The Karakoram Highway provides access between Islamabad and western China, and an alternate route to Central Asia via Kashgar, China. Gujranwala is connected to Lahore by Sialkot-Lahore Motorway. The motorway passes east of the Grand Trunk Road and terminates near the Sialkot International Airport. Plans for the motorway's extension farther north to Kharian near Gujrat City were announced in late 2017. Page 1-1 Induction of Eco-Friendly Buses in Cities of Punjab – Inception Report Figure 1-1 Map of Gujranwala City 1.2.2 Sheikhupura Sheikhupura, also known as Qila Sheikhupura, is a city and district in the province of Punjab. Sheikhupura is the 16th largest city of Pakistan by population. The city is an industrial center and satellite town and is located about 38 km northwest of Lahore. It also borders Sialkot, Gujranwala, Nankana Sahib and Kasur districts of Punjab, Pakistan. The overall literacy rate of Sheikhupura is 43.6%, which is increasing day by day. The city of Sheikhupura is an important industrial center and its industrial units provide most of the area’s employment. 1.2.2.1 Public Transport of Sheikhupura The transport infrastructure in Sheikhupura is generally adequate for existing requirements. This results in extended journey times for many trips, and the misuse of minor roads by through traffic. There is no off-street car parking available. On all roads, mostly motorcycle rickshaws or Auto Rickshaws are being used as urban transport services. Page 1-2 Induction of Eco-Friendly Buses in Cities of Punjab – Inception Report Figure 1-2 Map of Sheikhupura City 1.2.3 Sialkot Sialkot, a vibrant city in the Punjab province of Pakistan, is renowned for its rich history and economic significance. Founded in ancient times, Sialkot has evolved into a bustling center of trade and industry. It is famously known as the "City of Sports" due to its production of high- quality sporting goods, particularly footballs, which are exported worldwide. The city’s strategic location, close to major transportation routes, enhances its accessibility and trade potential. The city located in Punjab, Pakistan. It is the 13th most populous city in Pakistan. The boundaries of Sialkot are joined by Jammu in the northeast, the districts of Narowal in the southeast, Gujranwala in the southwest and Gujrat in the northwest. Sialkot district spreads over an area of 3,016 square kilometers. Population; Rural Population, 70%; Total, 4,499,334. Page 1-3 Induction of Eco-Friendly Buses in Cities of Punjab – Inception Report 1.2.3.1 Public transport in Sialkot A range of private and public buses operate within the city, providing affordable transportation options for daily commuters. Vans also serve as a popular mode for shorter distances. Auto rickshaws are widely used for local travel, offering flexibility and convenience for passengers. Figure 1-3 Map of Sialkot City 1.2.4 Sargodha Sargodha is a city and capital of Sargodha Division, located in Punjab province, Pakistan. Sargodha is also known as the City of Eagles on account of hosting the headquarters of the Pakistan Air Force. The British Royal Air Force built an airport here due to its strategic location. Sargodha was given the status of Divisional Headquarters in 1960 and is the divisional headquarters of districts Sargodha, Khushab, Mianwali and Bhakkar. Sargodha became the administrative capital of the Sargodha Division, handling over a population of about 8.1 million. The area of district Sargodha comprises of 5,854 km². Page 1-4 Induction of Eco-Friendly Buses in Cities of Punjab – Inception Report 1.2.4.1 Public Transport in Sargodha: General Bus Stand is located on Fatima Jinnah Road that provides bus service from Sargodha to almost every part of the country. Daewoo Bus Service drives regular routes from Sargodha to the rest of the country. Others include Niazi Express, Faisal Movers, Bilal Travels, Islamabad Express and Skyways etc. The online cab services Uber and Careem are available in the city. Many auto rickshaws are also available throughout the city. Figure 1-4 Map of Sargodha City 1.2.5 Gujrat Gujrat is a district in the Pakistani province of Punjab. It is geographically located between the Chenab and Jhelum rivers. According to the 2023 Pakistani census, 93.47% of the population spoke Punjabi, 3.48% Urdu and 2.16% Pashto as their first language. Gujrat has a total area of 3,192 sq. km. It is bounded on the northeast by Bhimber district, on the north by Mirpur district, on the northwest by the River Jhelum, which separates it from Jhelum district, on the east and southeast by the Chenab River, separating it from the districts of Gujranwala and Sialkot, and on the west by Mandi Bahauddin district. Page 1-5 Induction of Eco-Friendly Buses in Cities of Punjab – Inception Report At the time of the 2017 census, Gujrat district had a population of 2,756,289, Male (50.10%) and Female (49.90%). Gujrat had a literacy rate of 78.68% - 83.32% for males and 74.47% for females. 827,500 (30.02%) lived in urban areas. 656,987 (23.84%) were under 10 years of age. In 2023, the district had a population of 3,219,375. 1.2.5.1 Public Transportation in Gujrat Several bus companies operate routes from Gujrat to major cities like Lahore, Islamabad, and Faisalabad. Services such as Daewoo, Faisal Movers, and local bus operators are popular. Smaller buses and vans are available for local routes, connecting different neighborhoods and nearby towns. The Modes of Hiace and Qingqi are used commonly for Intracity transport. Figure 1-5 Map of Gujrat City Page 1-6 Induction of Eco-Friendly Buses in Cities of Punjab – Inception Report 1.2.6 Rahim Yar Khan Rahim Yar Khan is a district in the Punjab province of Pakistan, known for its rich agricultural landscape and cultural heritage, situated in the southern part of Punjab, Rahim Yar Khan borders Sindh and is traversed by the river Ghazi. The economy is primarily agrarian, with crops such as wheat, sugarcane, cotton, and rice being cultivated. The city is divided into 4 Tehsils. Total area of Rahim Yar Khan district is 11,880 sq km. Total population of Rahim yar Khan district is 4,814,006 in which male percentage is (51.26%) and female percentage is (48.73%). 1.2.6.1 Public Transport in Rahim Yar Khan Various bus services operate between Rahim Yar Khan and other major cities in Punjab and Sindh, including Lahore, Multan, and Karachi. Companies like Daewoo and Faisal Movers provide comfortable travel options. Smaller buses and vans serve local routes within the district, connecting towns and rural areas to the city center. Auto Rickshaws are common for short distances, these are widely used for local travel within the city and surrounding areas. Figure 1-6 Map of Rahim Yar Khan City Page 1-7 Induction of Eco-Friendly Buses in Cities of Punjab – Inception Report 1.3 Objectives & Outputs of the Study The purpose and the objectives of the study as agreed in the Terms of Reference (ToRs) are described below: 1.3.1 Key Objectives The consultant will perform the following tasks during this study: a) Review the current transport system for the mentioned cities, including previous public transport studies and/or data available with Transport Department / TPU / DRTA Offices / PTC and identify problems with existing public transport system. The consultancy shall also review existing policies and development plans in the transport sector for their respective cities. b) Identify existing public transport routes, number/types of permits issued, operational parameters (formal & unformal modes), public transport infrastructure facilities and services, traffic demand on all critical road sections/junctions and compare with road capacities. c) Carry out the necessary surveys to calculate passenger demand for induction of intra city urban buses. Surveys may include, but not limited to the following: i) Existing Public transport modes and its routes ii) Passenger demand on existing modes iii) Road inventory survey iv) Traffic count at major roads / intersections, v) User interview survey vi) Willingness to adopt/ pay survey vii) survey for identification and gauging of electrical power sources in city and focus groups discussion with six (6) stakeholders to assess their mobility needs and commuting requirements. Available data in Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS), carried out by Punjab Bureau of Statistics, must also be utilized. d) Public transport modes may include existing intra- city public transport modes i.e., buses, minibuses and wagons if any and para-transit modes Qingchi/ rickshaws and Suzuki’s where plying. e) Keeping in view of the data collected, the consultant shall recommend routes feasible for operations of intra-city eco-friendly buses in the urban areas and the city’s suburbs if required or historically operated. The consultant shall identify the number. of required buses on each route, operational parameters, existing and proposed infrastructure, integration of routes with mass transit and feeder services, if available. Page 1-8 Induction of Eco-Friendly Buses in Cities of Punjab – Inception Report f) Compare different bus propulsion types and propose detailed specifications for the recommended type of eco-friendly buses, taking into consideration the operational requirements of proposed routes e.g., daily mileage, route lengths, route wise potential ridership, requirement of buses, headways etc. for smooth operation. The considerations must include future provision of Automated Fare Collection and Bus Scheduling System (AFC-BSS), Passenger information Systems (PIS), and other systems required for operations. g) Identify infrastructure requirements such as depots, bus stops, shelters and night parking areas. h) The consultant shall conduct a preliminary analysis to assess the energy requirements and availability of resources (depots etc.) to run electric buses in mentioned cities. i) Compare different business models for procurement and operations of buses, including Public Private Partnership, based on best international practices and past adopted models in Pakistan and recommend business model for bus operations best suited under local conditions. Business models adopted by Rider Hailing Services including Uber, Careem, Airlift & SWVL may also be investigated with regard to stage carriage service delivery subject to availability of data. j) Work out comparative analysis of all possible types of buses. k) Estimate Capital, Operational & Maintenance costs, revenue estimation based on different fare structures, work out route-wise financial assistance (if required) for induction and operation of buses for different business models. l) Investigate alternate avenues of revenue generation, apart from maximizing fare box revenue to explore the possibility of self-sustainability of operations of buses. The consultant shall also outline plan to enhance revenues through Non-Fare Revenues e.g., advertisement. m) Conduct detailed cost to benefit, and economic analysis based on VOC and other standard transport parameters. n) Workout human resource requirements for operations of public transport on proposed routes. Page 1-9 Induction of Eco-Friendly Buses in Cities of Punjab – Inception Report 1.3.2 Key Outputs Table 1-1 List of Key Outputs Sr. Deliverable Description Timelines Objectives, methodology, literature review, Within 01 1 Inception Report survey questionnaires, analysis techniques Month and outcomes details of project The Report shall include results of various surveys and details/ information pertaining to Traffic Count Surveys, Road Inventory Surveys, User Preference, Willingness to Adopt/ Pay/ Shift to the Electric Technology, Within 03 2 Survey Report Boarding and Alighting Survey, Focus Group Months Discussions, Survey of the Local Power Generation facility, Survey of Refueling Stations and Survey of the Potential Charging Locations to assess their mobility needs and commuting requirements. The report shall encompass all tasks mentioned in Terms of reference i.e., tasks Within 05 3 Draft Report pertaining to transport demand analysis, Months operation and infrastructure and financial modelling. Updated version of draft report incorporating Within 06 4 Final Report comments/ suggestions by the Client or any Months other government department 1.4 Study Area Visit The Consultant team visited the cities i.e. Sheikhupura, Gujrat, Gujranwala, Sialkot, Rahim Yar Khan and Sargodha to develop a feel & understanding of the study areas. Currently, there is no formal public transport plying on roads the cities i.e. Sheikhupura, Gujrat, Gujranwala, Sialkot, Rahim Yar Khan and Sargodha. In the past, CNG buses operated on one route in Sheikhupura, Gujranwala and Sialkot. Motorcycle Rickshaws / Auto Rickshaws Page 1-10 Induction of Eco-Friendly Buses in Cities of Punjab – Inception Report (6-Seater) and wagons are currently plying on these routes and catering the travel needs of inhabitants. During the visits and discussion with respective Secretary District Regional Transport Authorities (DRTAs), it was observed that Motorcycle Rickshaws / Auto Rickshaws (6-Seater) and wagons are the primary modes of transportation in these cities. Motorcycle Rickshaws / Auto Rickshaws serve as the primary means of travel within the city limits and nearby sub- urban vicinities. Wagon, on the hand, caters to commuters travelling to rural localities and other cities within their respective districts. To Map existing transportation routes and assess their condition, data on operational routes for various vehicle types (Motorcycle Rickshaws, Wagons and Buses) plying within city, within districts and inter districts collected from respective DRTAs. This data is being used to identify the survey points for public transport surveys as outlined in Terms of Reference (TORs) of the study. By analyzing this data, the consultant team will propose optimal urban transportation routes for the study areas. 1.5 Review of Available Plans & Drawings The consultant shall review the available literature/ report data. The consultant will maintain communication with the client through the due course of the project for the acquisition of necessary data. Some of the existing plans were listed below: - Comprehensive Study for Public Transport System in the Gujrat City (2011) - Improvement Of Urban Transport in Gujranwala City - Sheikhupura Transport Master Plan Study - Sialkot Transport Sector Strategy and Acton Plan – PICIIP – (2010) 1.6 Focused Group Discussions (FGD’s) with Stakeholders The Consultant will conduct Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) to engage with key stakeholders to gather insights on transportation infrastructure, traffic management, and urban mobility issues within the cities under the scope of works of this project. The FGDs shall provide insights to the development of policies, operational strategies, and project planning for improved public transport services and road infrastructure. The Consultants shall conduct Focused Group Discussions with the project Stakeholders including, but not limited to; Transport and Mass Transit Department Page 1-11 Induction of Eco-Friendly Buses in Cities of Punjab – Inception Report C&W Department Punjab Transport Company Concerned Deputy Commissioner Concerned Chief Traffic Officer Concerned Local Government The data from FGDs will be transcribed and analyzed thematically into infrastructure gaps, operational bottlenecks, coordination challenges, and policy recommendations. The FGDs will serve as a platform for meaningful dialogue, enabling the development of effective strategies for transport and traffic management. Page 1-12 Induction of Eco-Friendly Buses in Cities of Punjab – Inception Report 1.7 Methodology The methodology for this study is presented in below flow chart describing the field activities, analysis work and the activities which will be performed during the course of study. Figure 1-7 Flow chart of the Methodology 1.8 Work Plan: The Scheduled Workplan for this study is provided in Annexure II. Page 1-13 Induction of Eco-Friendly Buses in Cities of Punjab – Inception Report 2 Field Surveys 2.1 Introduction Field Surveys are the most important component of the planning process. The data set obtained from these surveys would be used to estimate the demand of the proposed routes. It will also help in proposing the fare levels for the bus operations in these cities of Punjab. All the predominant field surveys have been mentioned in this chapter with details discussed below. 2.1.1 Existing Public Transport Route Mapping Surveys One of the essential steps in designing the public transport surveys is the mapping of all existing operating Public Transport Routes i.e., Routes i.e., Metro Bus, Speedo Buses, PTC buses (if any) & Qingqi routes of respective cities. Maps will be developed to represent the existing public transport network for the cities of Punjab. 2.1.1.1 Survey Method The Consultant will initially acquire data of operative routes from various authorities i.e., District Regional Transport Authority (DRTA) & Punjab Transport Company etc. The consultant will also collect information of informal transport i.e., Qinqis & Light Occupancy Vehicles (LOVs) from Bus Stops and will also map them. The maps will be developed using mapping software i.e., QGIS. 2.1.2 Public Transport (PT) Counts & Occupancy Survey The PT Counts & occupancy of existing public transport vehicles directly determines how much public transport demand is already being catered by these vehicles. To confirm how many of these routes are operating and with which frequency it would be necessary to conduct field surveys, the mapping of routes would yield major merging points of public transport. These points would be selected for surveys and PT counts & occupancy will be performed. 2.1.2.1 Survey Locations Public Transport Count & Occupancy Survey locations have been proposed after initial site visit along with preliminary understanding of the existing public transport network. The survey locations are shown below. Page 2-1 Induction of Eco-Friendly Buses in Cities of Punjab – Inception Report Figure 2-1 MBCO Survey Locations for Gujranwala Page 2-2 Induction of Eco-Friendly Buses in Cities of Punjab – Inception Report Figure 2-2 MBCO Survey Locations for Gujrat Page 2-3 Induction of Eco-Friendly Buses in Cities of Punjab – Inception Report Figure 2-3 MBCO Survey Locations for Rahim Yar Khan Page 2-4 Induction of Eco-Friendly Buses in Cities of Punjab – Inception Report Figure 2-4 MBCO Survey Locations for Sargodha Page 2-5 Induction of Eco-Friendly Buses in Cities of Punjab – Inception Report Figure 2-5 MBCO Survey Locations for Sheikhupura Page 2-6 Induction of Eco-Friendly Buses in Cities of Punjab – Inception Report Figure 2-6 MBCO Survey Locations for Sialkot 2.1.2.2 Sampling The sampling rates on survey locations will be as follows: ✓ PT Count Survey will be performed continuously capturing 100 percent of vehicles travelling in both directions for each of the mentioned PT categories. ✓ The PT Occupancy Survey will be conducted on a sample basis. The enumerators will be instructed to capture the maximum number of vehicles; however, the target is to get a sample of at least 15 to 20 percent of passing vehicles for each PT type, direction, and time interval. Page 2-7 Induction of Eco-Friendly Buses in Cities of Punjab – Inception Report 2.1.2.3 Survey Method For PT Counts: The Public Transport count survey will be conducted using the following method: A surveyor will be positioned at each survey location. The surveyor will count each type of public transport vehicle passing by such as LTC buses etc. Similarly, surveys will also be conducted for LOVs & Qinqis on bus stops. The types of public transport vehicles will be recorded in the survey form simultaneously. Surveyors will count the number of vehicles manually using tally markings. The cumulative number of vehicles by direction and vehicle type will be recorded on a summary form (during data punching) for every 15-minutes time interval. For PT Occupancy: For Occupancy of Public Transport, codes will be generated for various occupancies i.e. Only Driver, half seating, full seating, full seating & standing and overloading etc. The codes will be noted by the surveyor on a sheet by looking at every PT vehicle passing by. The cumulative number of passengers by direction and PT type will be recorded on a summary form (during data punching) for every 15-minutes interval. 2.1.2.4 Survey Duration The survey was conducted in two categories: 1. 12 Hours from 7 AM to 7 PM 2. 05 Hours from 7 AM to 12 PM 2.1.2.5 Survey Forms: Survey forms are attached in Annexure I. Page 2-8 Induction of Eco-Friendly Buses in Cities of Punjab – Inception Report 2.1.3 Network Inventory Survey Road inventory surveys will be conducted for the respective cities. The attributes collected during this survey would include various parameters representing actual traffic operating conditions. Primarily the surveys will only be focusing on the roads on which the eco-friendly buses routes are expected to be proposed. The following will provide an overview of parameters to be gathered during this survey: Segment length Availability of Side Lane Number of Lanes Availability of Lateral Clearance(s) Presence of Lane Markings Status of Roadside Encroachments Presence Median On-Street Parking Status Traffic Operations (Two / One Way) Identification of Bus Stops 2.1.3.1 Survey Method The survey will be carried out by dividing study area roads into several segments. Segment breakpoints exist wherever there is a change in characteristic in the features of the network e.g., at intersections, points of change in situation of On-Street parking or encroachment, points of changing lane numbers, etc. Following general guidelines apply. Road Inventory for major arterial roads of the city will be collected to extract the relevant information. Karta view – an open-source tool similar to Google StreetView – to ease the mapping process will be used for Road Inventory Surveys. The figures below show some snapshots of Karta view. Page 2-9 Induction of Eco-Friendly Buses in Cities of Punjab – Inception Report Figure 2-2 Karta view Interface Source: Pictures Taken from Karta View Website In this regard a series of images will be captured for major arterial roads and then the data is extracted by viewing the images. Figure 2-3 Snapshot of Kashmir Road-Sialkot in Karta view Source: Pictures Taken from Karta View Website Both images and dataset in excel format on specific roads shall be provided to the client. 2.1.3.2 Survey Locations The surveys will be conducted on major arterials of the city on which the eco-friendly buses project routes are expected to be proposed. Page 2-10 Induction of Eco-Friendly Buses in Cities of Punjab – Inception Report 2.1.4 Public Transport User Interview & Stated Preference Survey Public Transport User Interview & Stated Preference Surveys will also be carried out. This survey will help to knowing general perception about existing public transport users and in estimating elasticity of demand with respect to the various service parameters, especially with fare. Special emphasis was given to tap the affordability of existing bus users by asking them about their willingness to pay for the new service. This will help in proposing the fare structure for the new service. 2.1.4.1 Survey Locations Interviews will be conducted at a few major bus stops in the city. The Tentative Survey locations are given that will be finalized based on Boarding and Alighting Data. Figure 2-7 Tentative Survey Locations for Gujranwala Page 2-11 Induction of Eco-Friendly Buses in Cities of Punjab – Inception Report Figure 2-8 Tentative Survey Locations for Sialkot Page 2-12 Induction of Eco-Friendly Buses in Cities of Punjab – Inception Report Figure 2-9 Tentative Survey Locations for Sargodha Page 2-13 Induction of Eco-Friendly Buses in Cities of Punjab – Inception Report Figure 2-10 Tentative Survey Locations for Gujrat Page 2-14 Induction of Eco-Friendly Buses in Cities of Punjab – Inception Report Figure 2-11 Tentative Survey Locations for Sheikhupura Page 2-15 Induction of Eco-Friendly Buses in Cities of Punjab – Inception Report Figure 2-12 Tentative Survey Locations for Rahim Yar Khan 2.1.4.2 Survey Schedule Stated Preference survey will be conducted between 0700 hours to 1900 hours for all major bus stop locations. The survey will be conducted on a weekday selected from Monday to Thursday. Public holidays, strike days or any day not representing typical traffic on a location will be excluded from the survey schedule. 2.1.4.3 Sampling The sampling rates are as follows: It is important to mention here that the Simple Random Sampling Method will be adopted to gather information from Existing Public Transport users. Since these interviews will be conducted at a few major existing bus stops of the city, people coming from the vicinity as well as transfer passengers are being interviewed in this type of survey. Page 2-16 Induction of Eco-Friendly Buses in Cities of Punjab – Inception Report The Following is the estimated number of interviews that will be collected. ✓ Gujranwala 800 Interview Samples ✓ Sialkot 350 Interview Samples ✓ Sheikhupura 250 Interview Samples ✓ Gujrat 200 Interview Samples ✓ Sargodha 350 Interview Samples ✓ Rahim Yar Khan 250 Interview Samples 2.1.4.4 Survey Method The following are general principles based on which the interviews will be conducted. The consultant, led by the supervisor, sets up the interview area at the specified bus stop. Supervisor or team leader will select sample passengers at random for interviewing. Surveyors will interview the passengers and fill the interview form. The study team will coordinate for support of local police during field work. The interviews will gather information regarding their trip ODs, occupation, trip frequency, distance that they travel to come to this land use, usual fare levels, level of satisfaction against fare / service and their average waiting time at the bus stop (if any). This will help in analyzing various parameters related to the quality of service, demand between certain OD pairs and the zone of influence that a usual bus stop attracts people from. This would assist in calculating parameters like target population in the service area, physical size of service area and potential places for new bus stop locations. Moreover, the interviews would also help in estimating the elasticity of demand with respect to the various service parameters. The Passenger Interview Survey will be conducted with the persons waiting for bus at designated bus stops. 2.1.4.5 Survey Forms: Survey form is attached in Annexure I. Page 2-17 Induction of Eco-Friendly Buses in Cities of Punjab – Inception Report 2.1.5 Boarding and Alighting Survey On-board passenger boarding / alighting survey will be conducted by recording the number of passengers entering and exiting on public transport vehicle at each bus stop. The use of Global Positioning System (GPS) will help to determine existing operating bus route, boarding / alighting of passengers and travel speed. 2.1.5.1 Survey Locations The rational for route selection is based on frequency of the operations of the fleet. The above criteria will be applied to all existing public transport routes. Based on this, routes will be selected for this survey. 2.1.5.2 Survey Schedule For this survey, a preliminary pilot survey will be conducted to understand the frequency of each existing operating route through a mobile application “Geo Tracker”. which records the speed of the vehicle and points at every bus stop and record the number of boarding and alighting passengers. The survey will be conducted for 02 round trips during the morning peak hour to understand the travel pattern on these existing routes during both peak and off-peak directions. All surveys will be conducted on a weekday selected from Monday through Thursday, excluding public holidays, strike days or any day not representative of the typical traffic pattern on the selected public transport routes. 2.1.5.3 Survey Method The following general guidelines apply to these surveys: The surveyor board the vehicle at the first terminal, travel through the route and alighted at the last terminal on the PT Route. While on board, the surveyor will count the number of stops, the number of boarding and alighting passengers by gender at every stop, the total travel time, and the time taken at every stop and the duration and cause of any delay. The survey will be conducted for each route, for 02 Round Trips in the morning peak in between 0700 hrs. and 1200 hrs. Surveyors ensure that all stoppages or locations where passengers board and/or alight the buses will be recorded on the application. Page 2-18 Induction of Eco-Friendly Buses in Cities of Punjab – Inception Report The surveyors also ensure that all stoppages are recorded even if passenger boards and/or alights do not occur at this location as stoppage could occur because of traffic signals, traffic congestion etc., in this case, all information will be recorded. 2.2 Preparatory Works for Field Survey & Data Collection Site investigation and confirmation of the precise survey locations, routes, and/or organizations. Preparation of the survey program/schedule and mobilization plan. Printing of an adequate number of survey forms. Recruiting and training of supervisors and surveyors. Organizing the survey team(s). Prior to executing any survey, the consultant shall obtain final clearance from the Study team to begin the survey. 2.3 Data Processing & Quality Assurance 2.3.1 Training and Pre-Testing Survey Sessions The essence of data quality assurance lies in selection and training of human resources being used for field surveys. For all the survey teams pre-survey training camps will be organized. These camps will be arranged multiple times during field surveys. This will ensure good quality human resources by doing the field surveys and therefore diminish chances of errors because of unawareness of enumerator’s data collection technique. Furthermore, care will be given to conduct proper field trials and pilot surveys to each of the enumerator and its better understanding of the type of work as well as difficulties faced in the field. 2.3.2 Monitoring of Surveys Traffic Surveys conducted by the consultant’s team will be monitored through field visits (planned and random) by the consultants for further data quality assurance. 2.3.3 Training and Pre-Testing Survey Sessions Once data arrives at the data entry site, the supervisors and shift Incharge for data entry will first convert tally marks in numeric counts. Later this converted sheet will be provided to the data entry operator. Page 2-19 Induction of Eco-Friendly Buses in Cities of Punjab – Inception Report Above all, the consultant’s study team will continuously monitor data quality assurance by physically verifying between the figures being punched with those recorded in the field. This technique will minimize the possibility of data being wrongly entered. 2.4 Integration with Intercity Buses and Railway Station For all these cities, the public transport routes will be planned in a way so as to integrate with the city’s railway station and inter-city bus terminals, and other points of interests including the major shopping centers and commercial/ industrial land uses as these locations are the major attractions for the people living in the cities. Page 2-20 Induction of Eco-Friendly Buses in Cities of Punjab – Inception Report 3 Finalization of Routes and Preparations of PT Operations 3.1 Identification & Selection of Potential Routes As mentioned above the consultant will review existing studies of public transport for the cities and will conduct primary surveys e.g. mapping of existing routes to identify the potential public transport routes in the city. The consultant may select some of the existing routes with slight changes to propose them as potential routes to be proposed for the new operations. Further the consultant will find the gaps in the existing public transport network of the city and will propose potential routes to fill the gaps keeping the Origin Destination patterns into consideration. These potential lucrative identified routes will then further be investigated by some primary data collection along those potential corridors to ascertain demand along the routes. It is important to mention here that this is an iterative process and after several iterations the routes will be finalized. The Consultant will then perform Route Condition Surveys and User Intercept Surveys on the potential proposed routes to assess the need of the routes. Similar exercises have been performed by consultants in many other cities and as an example figure 3-1 below shows service plan for intra-city bus operations for one of the projects in Lahore. Page 3-1 Induction of Eco-Friendly Buses in Cities of Punjab – Inception Report Figure 3-1 Potential PT Routes identified for Lahore 3.2 Demand Estimation & Recommendation of Final Routes With the help of secondary dataset available with the client and various other stakeholders and the primary dataset collected and analyzed by the client, a list of potential final routes will be developed. As discussed in previous sections, the consultant will perform Count & Occupancy Surveys on the major locations from where the potential proposed routes will pass. On the basis of these surveys the consultant will estimate the demand of the confirmed routes. The demand will suggest the economic and financial viability of the routes. Based on that the consultant will recommend the most feasible routes to the client. It is important to mention here that the consultant will also develop phasing plan of the routes that which routes should come earlier, and which routes can be postponed for the next phases of operations. Page 3-2 Induction of Eco-Friendly Buses in Cities of Punjab – Inception Report 3.3 Development of Operation Plan Once the network for newly proposed public transport routes is finalized and specific characteristics of the system, such as cycle times and route lengths, have been estimated, an operational plan for the system will be developed. The operational plan will include the following components: Service planning (service frequencies by route and time of day) Fleet sizing (number and type vehicles needed per route, fleet forecasting) Service standards (minimum service requirements needed for future planning) Daily operational planning – For Fleet Operations Daily operational planning – Control Center and station supervisors Daily operating procedures – Information provision and policing “Readiness for Service” and infrastructure monitoring Service quality and performance modeling Schedule changes and updates Preventative maintenance plans for the fleet Bus Stops Identification and development of their concept design Identification of depot locations for all proposed routes. Travel time, trips per day, operational hours Service plans with the introduction of operations, including adjustments in Fleet size required for proposed adjusted service plans. Based on the refinement of the service planning, daily operational planning, and personnel requirements portions of the operational plan components, operational costs can be estimated by inputting this information into the financial model. Variations in this initial input can be used to create modeling scenarios and to determine the best operating scenario for the long-term financial viability of the system. Page 3-3 Induction of Eco-Friendly Buses in Cities of Punjab – Inception Report Figure 3-2 Sample Operational Plan 3.4 Ensuring Operational Sustainability Overall, the operational sustainability depends upon 4 aspects: 3.4.1 Technical Aspect: This would cover the demand and supply analysis of the sustainability plan along with the technical input required from the operations perspective and their cost. Also, the estimation of maintenance and other recurring costs would also lie in technical aspect. 3.4.2 Social Aspect: This would entail on how to bring in the existing vendor into the ambit of new operations. This is important in terms of the buy in that needs to be created whenever new facilities comes into play. Existing industry stakeholders have to be given confidence that their bread and butter will not be snatched rather they will be streamlined through the new system. Page 3-4 Induction of Eco-Friendly Buses in Cities of Punjab – Inception Report 3.4.3 Financial Aspect: Development of Financial Model and the financial analysis of various scenario lies in this category where policy testing has been carried out which would help in reaching to the optimum results. Apart from the above-mentioned sustainability parameters, another important aspect to be covered is the positive environmental impacts from implementation of eco-friendly buses project. The consultant will also ascertain the positive environmental impacts from the project particularly from the fleet procurement standpoint. 3.4.4 Legal / Institutional Aspects: No matter how good technical and financial numbers are, they have to be backed up by legal arrangements otherwise the entire scheme could be jeopardized. Hence the legal / institutional arrangements play a vital role in the overall success of such a project. 3.5 Fleet Specifications & Functional Requirements The importance of Bus Fleet for any Public Transport system cannot be underestimated as the technology, configuration and the fleet size are major elements in successful implementation of a Public Transport operations. The selection of Bus Fleet mainly depends on a number of factors including the Ridership Demand, the mode of operations, route alignment configuration, cultural, environmental and economic considerations, etc. Hence while developing the fleet specifications, it will also be taken into consideration that they meet the government regulations with respect to passenger and road safety, occupational health, accessibility for persons with disabilities, and local and global emissions. Another important aspect is the provisioning of spare parts along with the supply contracts to have smooth operations particularly in the initial years of operation where all stakeholders understand the system. So, supply of spare parts and maintenance of a few initial years may also be ensured by the fleet supplier. The team has both experts in planning and in operations. The Consultant will integrate functional specifications with technical specifications and operations management needs to recommend the best vehicle procurement policy. Functional requirements focus primarily on: Page 3-5 Induction of Eco-Friendly Buses in Cities of Punjab – Inception Report Passenger comfort and ease of use, including seating and total capacity, ease of entry and exit, suitability for elderly passengers and passengers with young children, temperature, protection from the rain and noise levels; Meeting requirements of universal accessibility, notabl for persons with visual, hearing, intellectual and mobility impairments. Rolling Stock and stations should be fully accessible to all persons with disabilities, as well as other passengers with special needs including parents with children, and the elderly; Operational efficiency, including boarding and alighting speed, dwell time at stops, commercial speed, acceleration/deceleration rates, fuel consumption, ease of driving; Ease and efficiency of maintenance; Safety and security; Fleet warranty options; Tools, software, and diagnostic equipment for vehicles. Two-years supply of principal spare parts; Driver training and licensing program; Vehicle homologation and licensing; Post warranty maintenance 3.5.1 Selection of Fuel Technology Several alternatives regarding fuel technology in bus fleet for Public Transport Operations are available as per recent developments in this industry. These includes from diesel / CNG to hybrid to pure electric buses. All these technologies have their pros and cons and different authorities around the world take decision based on their local conditions. However, it is important to understand that fleet is the most important component in providing a good public transport service, hence special emphasis should be given while selecting the fleet technology since it has a direct impact on the operational cost of the system and at times it is the deciding factor between subsidy and surplus of a system. As mentioned above, the following are the predominant fuel technologies currently used: Diesel Hybrid Buses Pure Electric Buses Page 3-6 Induction of Eco-Friendly Buses in Cities of Punjab – Inception Report Based on recent developments in the field of Mass Transit / Public Transport Systems and based on the financial analysis for other systems in the country, also in terms of the life cycle cost of the project the most feasible option in terms of fuel technology of buses will be compared and selected. 3.5.2 Fleet Composition Recently in Public Transport Planning / Mass Transit System with the introduction of Third Generation Direct Service System, buses of all sizes from 8 m to 25 m are used. However, for Intra city public transport operations 6 m, 9 m & 12 m buses are the most effective in terms of fleet composition. The Consultant will estimate the fleet size and composition for each proposed route according to the demand and conditions of the roads. 3.5.3 Broader Bus Specifications As discussed above, fuel technology plays a vital role in public transport business model. Hence Broader Bus Specifications are chalked down below whereas relatively detailed bus specifications will be provided in the next outputs. Model: Year 2024 or Latest Air Conditioned Grade ability (Fully Laden) – min 20% Useful life of vehicle (Projected) – 1.2 million km or 12 years (whichever comes first) No. Passenger Seats – 30 (12 m) & 24 (8.5 m) Passenger Capacity – 90 (12 m) & 70 (8.5 m) 3.5.4 Maintenance Plan for Fleet The maintenance plan for the fleet aims to ensure maximum vehicle availability, consistent with international standards, during the peak periods, a moment in which the system needs a higher number of buses operating the services. If a big number of vehicles are unavailable, the operation will occur below the minimum expected level of service. The services will operate with lower frequencies and the buses will need to carry more passengers than the capacity. The maintenance of the fleet includes mechanical maintenance, cleaning, conservation and monitoring procedures under the supervision of the bus supplier, as detailed in the following items. Page 3-7 Induction of Eco-Friendly Buses in Cities of Punjab – Inception Report 3.5.4.1 Maintenance Responsibility It is preferable if during first few years of the operations, the supplier of the buses provides vehicle maintenance supervision. This is helpful because of the inexperience of the Operator Company with the new vehicle type procured for the project. During this period, the bus supplier will be responsible for overseeing all scheduled maintenance activities of the vehicles. Thus, the bus supplier must implement a Maintenance Plan according to the best recommendations for the new buses, such as the maintenance checklist and the schedule of preventive maintenances. Vehicle and component manufacturer’s manuals are an important part of the vehicle maintenance plan as they define specific maintenance interval and provide the required critical information. However, it is important to mention here that the time period for this arrangement will be discussed with the client and the mutually agreed duration will be made part of the contract of the bus supplier. The Fleet Operating Company will be providing the maintenance staff, who will be advised by the Supplier’s maintenance supervisor in carrying out the routine maintenance activities. The bus supplier shall also provide all replacement parts for all maintenance items caused through normal wear and tear as well as scheduled replacements. Conversely, the Operator will be responsible for all materials and associated costs for repair actions caused by road collisions or other unscheduled incidents. 3.5.4.2 Maintenance Training The bus supplier shall deliver a maintenance-training program that will properly prepare the Vehicle Operator to independently maintain its vehicle fleet after the end of the period of maintenance supervision. The training program will take place at intervals over at least 150-200 hours of actual training sessions. These sessions will include both classroom instructions as well as hands‐on repair work in the depot maintenance area. Approximately 20 persons from the Vehicle Operator will be trained for the maintenance of each vehicle type. All these details will be provided in the procurement document for the Fleet Procurement. 3.5.4.3 Preventive Mechanical Maintenance The schedule of preventive maintenance for each vehicle is a simple way to avoid operational problems and additional repair costs. During the preventive maintenance, the responsible professional can check for signs of wear and tear that can lead to future breakdowns or accidents and ensure that vehicles run safely and reliably. The level and frequency of Page 3-8 Induction of Eco-Friendly Buses in Cities of Punjab – Inception Report preventive maintenance shall be determined considering bus supplier recommendations and operating conditions. The creation of a checklist for the inspection of the major systems and items of the vehicles is the best practice to avoid skipping important maintenance tasks. The maintenance checklist must be unique for each vehicle type and shall include the checking of the following items: The major bus systems, such as fuel, auxiliary, braking, exhaust and others; The cabin controls; Tires and wheels; Level of all fluids; External and interior lights; Frame, undercarriage and drive shaft All safety items, such as horn and seat belts 3.6 Project’s Implementation Plan Broadly, there are two types of mechanisms based on which the project can be implemented i.e. i. Procurement of Fleet & Operator in independently. ii. Procurement of single party who could first procure the buses as per standards and specifications set by the authority and then operate the service for entire contract period. In case of the first approach following will be the procurement mechanism for bus supplier and operator. 3.6.1 Process of Fleet Procurement A step-by-step description of vehicle approval process will be developed, which will include the following elements: iii. Sign-off process of conceptual vehicle design with manufacturer iv. Sign-off process of the detailed vehicle design with manufacturer v. Optional site visits of client to manufacturing plant vi. Authority given for full production of units vii. Client inspection of initially produced units Page 3-9 Induction of Eco-Friendly Buses in Cities of Punjab – Inception Report viii. Vehicle registration and licensing by Client ix. Client sign-off of vehicle delivery The step-by-step process of fleet procurement is shown in Figure 3-5. Figure 3-3 Process of Fleet Procurement 3.6.2 Process of Operator’s Procurement Two mechanisms of operator payment can be adopted: i. Revenue Sharing Model ii. Per Kilometre Charge Model The pros and cons of both options will be analysed in greater details in the due course of the study and the most suitable option will be recommended to the client. The process of procuring an operator is displayed in Figure 3-6. Page 3-10 Induction of Eco-Friendly Buses in Cities of Punjab – Inception Report Figure 3-4 Process of Operator's Procurement 3.6.3 Clubbed or Isolated Approach In this approach a single procurement process will be executed in which a single party will be taken on-board. This service provider will first procure the buses as per the standards and specifications being chalked out by the authority based on the recommendations of this study and then will operate the system as per the standards set out for operations for entire contract term. In this approach the process will be a combination of the above-mentioned approaches. 3.7 Fare Policy & Structure Mostly lower fare slabs are more competitive than the higher ones, however sometimes lowest fare might not be the optimum level of how much commuters are willing to pay. Hence a detailed Fare Policy needs to be devised for Lahore for which Willingness to Pay Survey will be conducted, and the data will be used in proposing a fare policy that will be acceptable to the commuters. It is important to mention that fare policy has a direct relationship with the system patronage. Higher the fare level the higher the informal competition will be, as the population has ability to pay high fares to complete their daily trips. It is always advisable to start the system with the fare levels as close as possible to the existing fare structure to develop market acceptance. And after some time once the patronage is developed then the fare structure can be raised to a reasonable level. Page 3-11 Induction of Eco-Friendly Buses in Cities of Punjab – Inception Report Figure 3-5 PT Usage vs Informal Competition Figure 3-6 Implementation Strategy 3.7.1 Preparation of Fare Policy The driving concept behind the design of the fare collection system is that it provides the infrastructure (hardware) and software necessary for the integration with many distinct systems and services, as opposed to singular compatibility within the service. Thus, the fare system should include, at minimum, the flexibility to administer: ✓ Zonal fares ✓ Fares for distinct user types (full-fare, students, disabled, senior citizens, etc.) Page 3-12 Induction of Eco-Friendly Buses in Cities of Punjab – Inception Report ✓ Fares for different types of trips by time of day (for example, peak hour and off-peak fares) and day (weekday, weekend, and holiday fares) ✓ Fares for distinct transport services (for example, trunk lines, feeder lines, direct lines, and even those services outside of the Mass Transit System, such as taxis or other buses) ✓ Fare payment by smart card (contactless electronic fare payment) and cash No matter who is responsible for the collection, the process is the same as it involves several agents. 3.7.2 Types of Fare Structures There is a range of fare structure options for public transport operations: free fares, flat fares, zonal fares, distance-based fares, and time-based fares administer. However, all of them have their own pros and cons. Hence this will be analyzed to come up with the most optimum option. Figure 3-7 Types of Fare Structures 3.8 Non-Fare Revenue Although the main source of revenue from a public transport is from passengers, there is considerable potential for non-fare revenue. Advertisement of various brands on the buses Page 3-13 Induction of Eco-Friendly Buses in Cities of Punjab – Inception Report (only interior), bus stops, tickets and passes can substantially generate a fair amount of non- fare revenue. Hence the potential for Non-Fare Revenue will be estimated for the proposed Public Transport Operations for these cities of Punjab. This information will be used in the financial model to assess the level of revenue surplus / subsidy. Figure 3-8 NFR potential inside bus Page 3-14 Induction of Eco-Friendly Buses in Cities of Punjab – Inception Report Figure 3-9 NFR potential on Bus Stops 3.9 Research on Ride Hailing Services The Consultant shall evaluate the Business models adopted by ride-hailing services such as Careem, InDrive, Yango and Bykea. The focus will be on identifying a model best suited for local conditions, for stage carriage service delivery by investigate the business models of ride- hailing services such as Careem, InDrive, Yango and Bykea focusing on: Their operational framework, including fleet management, driver/operator contracts, and fare collection mechanisms. Their scalability and adaptability to stage carriage services (fixed-route bus services). Financial models (revenue-sharing, fare structures) and customer experience data where available. Analyze the reason for their failures Identify the Key Success Factors Integrate the lessons learned and incorporating the insights to enhance decision- making. Page 3-15 Induction of Eco-Friendly Buses in Cities of Punjab – Inception Report 4 Traffic Management Plan and Concept Design of Bus Depots & Terminals 4.1 Identification of Infrastructure Improvements for Efficient PT Operation Identification of Depot requirement along with its location, availability status, physical inspection. Typical Concept Level Design of Depots, Bus Shelters etc. Providing details of equipment and installations required at the depot facilities. Finalization of Bus Stop Locations, Designs and Installations throughout the proposed routes. Preparation of Budgetary Cost Estimates for both depot development and the infrastructure improvements required throughout the proposed public transport routes. 4.2 Bus Depots and Terminal The existing bus terminals in these cities are mostly operational for inter-city buses and are in a poor condition. Efficient concept level sketches will be developed for bus terminals and depots of these cities to accommodate the intra-city buses, be aesthetically pleasant and comfortable for the passengers. Figure 4-1 Proposed Conditions 4.3 Components of a Bus Depot Deployment of public transport buses in a city requires provision of well-equipped bus depots. These depots must have all the essential facilities to provide the best operations and maintenance necessities to the buses. A good bus depot may comprise of the following components: Page 4-1 Induction of Eco-Friendly Buses in Cities of Punjab – Inception Report 4.3.1 Parking Spaces A safe and ample parking area is an important element of a bus depot and it should have enough space for the buses to park overnight and in between the operations. The public transport ridership and demand surveys will be conducted to determine how much parking spaces should be given in the bus depots. The parking must be adequate and must provide enough turning radius, considering the size of an average bus. 4.3.2 Washing Area Clean buses are vital in order to provide maximum passenger comfort. At the end of operation, buses require an external wash as well as an inside clean up. In order to maintain the cleanliness service for the buses, a dedicated washing area must be provided within the depot. 4.3.3 Fueling Area The common practice for fueling and refueling is not during the bus operation; rather it is done either before or after the operation. Fueling areas must be provided within the depot in order to make the bus operations as efficient as possible. 4.3.4 Underground Fuel Tanks A bus consumes about 200 liters of fuel per day on an average, and a full day fuel requirement of each depot will vary, based on the number of buses in it. Considering the daily fuel requirements of the buses, an underground fuel storage tank will be needed. It is not feasible to have a Fuel Dowsers to refill the tanks at a daily routine. Therefore, a reserve tank should have a storage capacity of fuel for 5-7 days. 4.3.5 Maintenance Area Public transport buses run throughout the day, and this lengthy operation of the machineries requires a daily maintenance and checkup to ensure both the mechanical and physical fitness of the buses. This maintenance should be carried out at home ground by providing maintenance and vehicle inspection areas within the depot. Based on the observations made from various public transport operations, it takes a bus 25-30 minutes on the maintenance bay to have a complete daily maintenance and schedule checkup with a quick internal cleaning. Analysis showed that provision of holdup area before the maintenance bays would affect the washing and fueling processes, and hence no holdup area would be provided here. 4.4 Bus Stops Concept Designs Bus Stop Identification for the proposed bus routes is an integral part of the overall successful operations. Hence the consultants would identify bus stops for all proposed routes that will include providing coordinates of the proposed bus stops locations. Page 4-2 Induction of Eco-Friendly Buses in Cities of Punjab – Inception Report Also, concept design for proposed bus stops will also be developed based on the availability of land along the respective routes. Figure 4-2 Bus Stop Plan Figure 4-3 Bus Stop Plan 4.5 Allied Infrastructure Improvement Other ancillary infrastructure improvement such as bus lanes or pavement improvement will also be identified along the finalized public transport network. Page 4-3 Induction of Eco-Friendly Buses in Cities of Punjab – Inception Report 5 Financial & Legal Appraisal and Procurement Modes Analysis 5.1 Financial Model Based on the information and data collected and analysed a financial analysis will be developed keeping in view the sources of funding financial soundness/fiscal sustainability. The structures developed shall be flexible to run various options that can be used effectively as a tool for future business planning. The financial analysis will also include an evaluation of the impact of the projects on public sector/government finances. In developing the financial analysis, following steps will be ensured: i. Determine output specifications based on quality of service and performance standards for operations to be met by the private party and to be formalized as a Service Level Agreement ii. Determine appropriate methods of involving the private sector, if ultimately applicable, in order to improve efficiency, and reduce cost and capital investment in bus procurement and fare revenue collection iii. Identify capital and operational expenditure requirements, maintenance costs and other direct costs iv. The analysis will comprise cash flow forecasts for the project and present decision support tool in the form of a dashboard that provide results and outcomes from the preferred transaction structure(s) along with sensitivities on key variables. The following chart depicts an image of what our standard financial models look like. Page 5-1 Induction of Eco-Friendly Buses in Cities of Punjab – Inception Report Figure 5-1 Sample Outlook of Financial Analysis The analysis will be expected to indicate the financial viability of the Project. It will reflect the sustainability of the Project under various threats and risks and indicate the areas in which support is needed for sustainability. Based on the technical and market inputs the preliminary financial analysis would depict the following information: I. Potential revenues from all possible sources and analysis including fare level recommendations and non-fare revenues from bus operations, advertisement and other commercial activities II. Project Capital Costs III. Development costs and their phasing plan IV. Operating expenses V. Financing structuring including equity & loan, where applicable VI. Debt servicing and amortization schedules based on local commercial banks financing, where applicable VII. Whether fare revenues would be sufficient for the project to break even or whether viability gap funding is necessitated Page 5-2 Induction of Eco-Friendly Buses in Cities of Punjab – Inception Report 5.2 Economic Analysis 5.2.1 Cost Benefit Analysis and Economic IRR We understand that for a public sector entity, the social impact of a project is just as important, if not more so, than simply a matter of financial profitability. A project’s social impact is a factor of externalities such as economic, social, environmental and political costs and benefits. These aspects of project appraisal are conducted in the form of an economic cost-benefit analysis (CBA). A CBA yields the net value of a quantification of all social and economic costs and benefits that are associated with a project and discounted to the present. Our expertise will allow the calculation of an economic net present value, and the associated economic IRR (defined as the discount rate that will yield an eNPV of zero) as the main performance indicators of the economic analyses required to appraise the worthiness of the projects as PPPs. These analyses will enable the government not to overlook projects that have a positive value for society or to approve projects that may have a positive financial outlook but come at a net cost to society. In this regard the consultant will assist the client for the following: I. Identify all the benefits and costs associated with the projects, including passenger time saving, vehicle operating cost savings etc. II. Conduct the investigations necessary to quantify each of the benefits and costs III. Work with the client and all relevant stakeholders to arrive at a reasonable discount rate that will accurately reflect the ground realities of the projects IV. Determine the eNPVs and eIRRs of the project 5.3 Financial Analysis & Findings Key issues in the tasks leading to the development of financial analysis and findings is the level of detail required to determine how the project should be structured financially. A parallel objective is to provide the adequate level of detail for the authorities to take an informed decision about the project. The data must have the required detail so that authorities / stakeholders can interpret the information based on their experience and expertise. Based on the findings of the viability studies undertaken to date, and basic design developed from a technical standpoint, financial analysis will be carried out. This would include inputs from Technical team on technical parameters, estimated procurement costs of components and operating schedules for a phased implementation program, as applicable. Page 5-3 Induction of Eco-Friendly Buses in Cities of Punjab – Inception Report This component will enable stakeholders to determine full project life cycle cost, affordability in terms of budget and consumer prices, service levels (primarily financial and legal), risks and their costs, and applicable fare regime and structures. Page 5-4 Induction of Eco-Friendly Buses in Cities of Punjab – Inception Report Annexure - I Survey Forms Page 5-5 INDUCTION OF ECO-FRIENDLY BUSES IN CITIES OF PUNJAB Classified Traffic Volume Counts Surveys Survey Location: Direction: Public Transport Freight Transport 3 Seator Motorcycles & Light Freight Time of the Day Private Cars Taxies large Bus/ Single Unit Total Intercity Vehicles Rickshaws Scooters Qingqi Suzuki Hiace Contract Coaster Trucks [2 & 3 Trailers Bus [Pickups, carriage Axle] Shehzoor, etc] 7:00 - 7:15 7:15 - 7:30 7:30 - 7:45 7:45 - 8:00 8:00 - 8:15 8:15 - 8:30 8:30 - 8:45 8:45 - 9:00 9:00 - 9:15 9:15 - 9:30 9:30 - 9:45 9:45 - 10:00 10:00 - 10:15 10:15 - 10:30 10:30 - 10:45 10:45 - 11:00 11:00 - 11:15 11:15 - 11:30 11:30 - 11:45 11:45 - 12:00 12:00 - 12:15 12:15 - 12:30 12:30 - 12:45 12:45 - 13:00 13:00 - 13:15 13:15 - 13:30 13:30 - 13:45 13:45 - 14:00 14:00 - 14:15 14:15 - 14:30 14:30 - 14:45 14:45 - 15:00 15:00 - 15:15 15:15 - 15:30 15:30 - 15:45 15:45 - 16:00 16:00 - 16:15 16:15 - 16:30 16:30 - 16:45 16:45 - 17:00 17:00 - 17:15 17:15 - 17:30 17:30 - 17:45 17:45 - 18:00 18:00 - 18:15 18:15 - 18:30 18:30 - 18:45 18:45 - 19:00 Total INDUCTION OF ECO-FRIENDLY BUSES IN CITIES OF PUNJAB Public Transport Occupancy Survey Survey Location Direction: Enumerator: [Name & ID]: I D Occupancy Code Key: Remarks, if any: a Contract Carriages Shift Supervisor: 0 Empty 3 Half Standing b Coasters 1 Less then ½ Seats 4 Full Standing c Minibus/Coach 2 Full Seats Occupied 5 Hanging d Large Buses Date: d d m m 2 0 e Rickshaws Observation Occupancy Occupancy S. S. Observation Time Time Mode ID Code Mode ID Code No. No. [hh:mm] [hh:mm] [encircle] [encircle] 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 27 0 1 2 3 5 2 0 1 2 3 4 5 28 0 1 2 3 5 3 0 1 2 3 4 5 29 0 1 2 3 5 4 0 1 2 3 4 5 30 0 1 2 3 5 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 31 0 1 2 3 5 6 0 1 2 3 4 5 32 0 1 2 3 5 7 0 1 2 3 4 5 33 0 1 2 3 5 8 0 1 2 3 4 5 34 0 1 2 3 5 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 35 0 1 2 3 5 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 36 0 1 2 3 5 11 0 1 2 3 4 5 37 0 1 2 3 5 12 0 1 2 3 4 5 38 0 1 2 3 5 13 0 1 2 3 4 5 39 0 1 2 3 5 14 0 1 2 3 4 5 40 0 1 2 3 5 15 0 1 2 3 4 5 41 0 1 2 3 5 16 0 1 2 3 4 5 42 0 1 2 3 5 17 0 1 2 3 4 5 43 0 1 2 3 5 18 0 1 2 3 4 5 44 0 1 2 3 5 19 0 1 2 3 4 5 45 0 1 2 3 5 20 0 1 2 3 4 5 46 0 1 2 3 5 21 0 1 2 3 4 5 47 0 1 2 3 5 22 0 1 2 3 4 5 48 0 1 2 3 5 23 0 1 2 3 4 5 49 0 1 2 3 5 24 0 1 2 3 4 5 50 0 1 2 3 5 25 0 1 2 3 4 5 51 0 1 2 3 5 26 0 1 2 3 4 5 52 0 1 2 3 5 YELLOW LINE BRT - OPERATIONAL DESIGN AND BUSINESS MODEL (ODBM) PUBLIC TRANSPORT USER INTERVIEW SURVEY FORM Survey Site Surveyor Vehicle Type 1. Public Transport 2. Contract Carriages 3. Qinqis Coded By Date (yy:mm:dd) Time AM / PM (hour:minute) Checked By Q1. Gender 1. Male 2. Female 3. Transgender Q2. Age: ≤ 20 ≤ 50 50< Q3. Where do you live? Area Landmark / Famous building Q4. Where do you work (1) or go to school (2) ? Area Landmark / Famous building Q5. Where did you start this trip? 1. Residence 2. Workplace / school 3. Others (give address below) Area Landmark / Famous building Q6. Where is your final destination? 1. Residence 2. Workplace / school 3. Others (give address below) Area Landmark / Famous building Q7. What is the purpose of this trip? 1. To home 5. Administrative / Meeting 2. To work 6. Religious 3. To school / Education 7. Meeting Relatives or Friends / Picnic 4. Shopping 8. Others____________ Q8. How long do you think this trip will take? hours minutes Q9. How much do you have to pay for this trip? Rs Q10. What is your occupation? 1. Managerial Staff 6. Housewife 2. Supervisor / Skilled Worker 7. Labor / Unskilled Worker 3. Government Employee 8. Student 4. Shopkeeper / Street Vendor 9. Jobless/ Retired 5. Domestic Staff 10. Others (_____________) Q11. How often you usually use public transport? 1. Daily 2. At least once per week 3. Rarely Q12. How much do you normally pay for transportation per day? Rs Q13. If public transport service becomes excellent, how much is the maximum amount you can afford to pay for this trip? Rs Q14. How much is your monthly income range? 1. Below 5,000 3. 15,000 – 25,000 5. More than 50,000 2. 5,000 – 15,000 4. 25,000 – 50,000 6. None Q15. What is your assessment of the existing public transport service? 1 Frequency 1. good 2. fair 3. bad 2 Cost / Fare 1. good 2. fair 3. bad 3 Travel speed 1. good 2. fair 3. bad 4 Comfort 1. good 2. fair 3. bad 5 Safety 1. good 2. fair 3. bad Induction of Eco-Friendly Buses in Cities of Punjab – Inception Report Annexure - II Work Schedule Page 5-6 FORM TECH-6 WORK SCHEDULE AND PLANNING FOR DELIVERABLES Month 1 Month 2 Month 3 Month 4 Month 5 Month 6 S. No. Task Description wk 1 wk 2 wk 3 wk 4 wk 1 wk 2 wk 3 wk 4 wk 1 wk 2 wk 3 wk 4 wk 1 wk 2 wk 3 wk 4 wk 1 wk 2 wk 3 wk 4 wk 1 wk 2 wk 3 wk 4 1 Development of Inception Report (Deliverable No. 1) 1a. Coordination with Client & Project Kick-Off Meeting 1b. Firming up of ToRs 1c. Review of existing and projected population, other dataset 1d. Field Survey Activity Planning & Finalization of survey forms 1 1e. Development & Submission of Inception Report 2 Survey Report (Deliverable No. 2) 2a Field Survey training & pilot surveys 2b Focused Group Discussions 2c

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