EAFM Climate Change Guidelines CTI PDF

See discussions, stats, and author profiles for this publication at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/275407062 Incorporating Climate Change and Ocean Acidiﬁcation into an Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management (EAFM) Plan Technical Report · January 2013 CITATIONS READS 5 1,509 19 authors, including: Adel Heenan Russell E. Brainard University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa @Orchard LLC 50 PUBLICATIONS 925 CITATIONS 216 PUBLICATIONS 7,578 CITATIONS SEE PROFILE SEE PROFILE Affendi Yang Amri Nygiel Armada University of Malaya TetraTech ARD 60 PUBLICATIONS 1,490 CITATIONS 25 PUBLICATIONS 580 CITATIONS SEE PROFILE SEE PROFILE All content following this page was uploaded by Johann D. Bell on 25 April 2015. The user has requested enhancement of the downloaded file. Incorporating climate and ocean change into an ecosystem approach to fisheries management (EAFM) plan A publication supporting the Coral Triangle Initiative on Coral Reefs, Fisheries and Food Security (CTI-CFF) www.coraltriangleinitiative.org Key Contributors: Affendi Yang Amri, Universiti Malaya Perry Alino, University of the Philippines Nygiel Armada, TetraTech, US-CTI, Bangkok Johann Bell, Secretariat of the South Pacific Rusty Brainard, National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration William Cheung, University British Colombia Laura David, University of the Philippines Rebecca Guieb, USAID Philippines Stuart Green, RARE Adel Heenan, National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration Jamaluddin Jompa, Hasanuddin University, Indonesia Teresa Leonardo, USAID ASIA Cheryl Logan, California State University Sam Mamauag, University of the Philippines Philip Munday, James Cook University Britt Parker, National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration Robert Pomeroy, University of Connecticut Asuncion Evangelista Sia, US CTI Support Program Integrator Janna Shackeroff, National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration Zulfigar Yasin, University of Sains Malaysia Incorporating Climate and Ocean Change Into an Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management (EAFM) Plan Edited and CompIled by: Adel Heenan, National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration, Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Centre Robert Pomeroy, University of Connecticut Rusty Brainard, National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration, Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Centre Key Contributors are listed inside the front cover of this publication. USAID Project Number: GCP LWA Award # LAG-A-00-99-00048-00 Citation: Heenan, A., R. Pomeroy, R. Brainard, A. Amri, P. Alino, N. Armada, J. Bell, W. Cheung, L. David, R. Guieb, S. Green, J. Jompa, T. Leonardo, C. Logan, S. Mamauag, P. Munday, B. Parker, J. Shacker- off, and Z. Yasin. Incorporating climate change and ocean acidification into an ecosystem approach to fisheries management (EAFM) plan. Publication. Honolulu, Hawaii: The USAID Coral Triangle Support Partnership, 2013. Print. Printed in: Honolulu, Hawaii This is a publication of the Coral Triangle Initiative on Corals, Fisheries and Food Security (CTI-CFF). Funding for the preparation of this document was provided by the USAID-funded Coral Triangle Support Partnership (CTSP). CTSP is a consortium led by the World Wildlife Fund, The Nature Conservancy and Conservation International with funding support from the United States Agency for International Development’s Regional Asia Program. For more information on the Coral Triangle Initiative, please contact: Coral Triangle Initiative on Coral Reefs, Fisheries and Food Security Interim-Regional Secretariat Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia Mina Bahari Building II, 17th Floor Jalan Medan Merdeka Timur No. 16 Jakarta Pusat 10110, Indonesia www.coraltriangleinitiative.org © 2013 Coral Triangle Support Partnership. All rights reserved. Reproduction and dissemination of material in this report for educational or other non-commercial purposes are authorized without any prior written permission from the copyright holders provided the source is fully acknowledged. Reproduction of material in this information product for resale or other commercial purposes is prohibited without written permission of the copyright holders. Disclaimer: This document is made possible by the generous support of the American people through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The contents are the responsibility of the Coral Triangle Support Partnership (CTSP) and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government. Cover Photo: Fishing boats, Malaysia. © CTSP / Tory Read Table of Contents Abbreviations and Acronyms............................... 4 Glossary.......................................... 5 Acknowledgements................................... 12 Section 1. Introduction................................. 13 1.1 What is the purpose of this climate and ocean change addendum?...... 13 1.2 Who should use the guidelines?......................... 14 1.3 How can the climate and ocean change guidelines be used?.......... 14 1.4 An overview of the EAFM planning process................... 15 1.5 Scope of these guidelines............................ 15 Section 2. How is the climate in the Coral Triangle expected to change?....... 16 Section 3. How might a changing climate affect fisheries in the Coral Triangle?.... 21 3.1 Habitat impacts.................................. 21 3.2 Biological impacts of temperature change on individuals, larval supply and populations............................ 23 3.4 Biological impacts of ocean change....................... 24 3.5 Fisheries yield impacts.............................. 24 3.6 Sea level rise impacts............................... 25 3.7 Socioeconomic impacts of climate and ocean change.............. 26 Section 4. Climate and ocean change vulnerability assessment for an EAFM..... 28 4.1 Why do a vulnerability assessment?....................... 28 4.2 What is vulnerability and how do you measure it?............... 28 Section 5. Including considerations of climate and ocean change into an EAFM.... 30 5.1 Overview of the EAFM management cycle and its relevance to climate change............................. 30 5.2 How do you include considerations of climate change and ocean change into an EAFM?.......................... 31 2 Incorporating Climate and Ocean Change Into an Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management (EAFM) Plan Table of Contents PRE-STEP....................................... 31 A. Prepare the ground.............................. 31 B. Stakeholder engagement........................... 32 PLAN......................................... 33 Step 1. Define and scope the Fisheries Management Unit (FMU)....... 33 Step 2. Identify and prioritize issues and goals.................. 37 Step 3. Develop the EAFM plan......................... 38 DO.......................................... 39 Step 4. Implement the EAFM plan........................ 39 Step 5. Monitor, Evaluate, and Adapt...................... 41 Section 6. Scaling up................................... 43 Section 7. Adaptation options: a practical framework................. 44 Section 8. Monitoring.................................. 47 Section 9. What can be done at national and regional levels to support community-led climate-change adaptation within an EAFM?............. 49 9.1 National level activities.............................. 49 9.2 Regional level activities.............................. 51 References........................................ 52 Appendix A List of workshop participants.............................. 60 Appendix B Determining whether the EAFM team is ready to instigate an EAFM-CCOA plan............................ 61 Incorporating Climate and Ocean Change Into an Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management (EAFM) Plan 3 Abbreviations and Acronyms CCA – Climate change adaptation ICZM – Integrated coastal zone management IPCC – Inter-governmental panel for climate change LEAP – Local early action plan MPA – Marine protected areas MSP – Marine spatial planning NGO – Non-governmental organization SPC – Secretariat of the Pacific Community SRES – Special Report on Emission Scenarios VA – Vulnerability assessment WCPFC – Western and Central Pacific Fisheries Commission 4 Incorporating Climate and Ocean Change Into an Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management (EAFM) Plan © CTSP / Tory Read Glossary Adaptation – Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climate and/or ocean change or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities. Various types of adaptation include: anticipatory, autonomous, and planned adaptation (IPCC 2007). Adaptation options – The range of actions that can be taken to reduce vulnerability of a target resource to climate and/or ocean change. For a social resource target such as housing, adaptation options may include moving housing, developing new building standards, or retrofitting existing housing to withstand a climate threat. For natural resources targets, such as coral reefs, adaptation options may include strengthening or expanding existing management efforts such as improving enforcement of existing marine protected area or expanding protection to a network of marine protected areas. Adaptive capacity – The ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the conse- quences (IPCC 2007). Adaptive management – A systematic process for continually improving management policies and practices toward achieving articulated goals and objectives by learning from the outcomes of previously employed policies and practices. The basic steps of adaptive management are to conceptualize; plan actions and monitoring; implement actions and monitoring; analyze, use, and adapt; and capture and share learning. Active adaptive management is where management options are used as a deliberate experiment for the pur- pose of learning (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2006). Benchmark – A standard against which something can be measured or judged. Used as a planning tool to catalyze and guide local implementation of a particular process. Benchmarks can help to identify the level and status of a group’s efforts on a particular project. Incorporating Climate and Ocean Change Into an Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management (EAFM) Plan 5 Biodiversity – The variation of life at all levels, ranging from genes to ecosystems. It is more than a count of species and can be characterized by extinctions, reductions, or increases of some species; invasions and hybridizations; degradation of habitats; and changes in ecosystem processes. Climate – Weather averaged over a long period of time (typically over 30 years or more). Climate is what you expect; weather is what you get (IPCC 2007). Climate change – A change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g. using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties, and that persists for an extended period, typi- cally decades or longer (IPCC 2001). Climate change adaptation (CCA) –Actions taken to help society, communities, and ecosystems moderate, cope with, or take advantage of actual or expected changes in climate conditions. Adaptation can reduce vulnerability, both in the short and long term (IPCC 2001). Climate story – The summary of past, present, and potential future climate conditions and their poten- tial impacts on target resources of importance to a community or society. The climate story is developed based on both community-based and scientific observations of climate change and potential impacts on target resources and the provision of ecosystem services. Climate variability – The climatic variations in the mean state and other statistics (such as standard deviations, the occurrence of extremes, etc.) of the climate on all spatial and temporal scales beyond that of individual weather events. Examples of climate variability include inter-annual El Niño and La Niña events, which occur every two to seven years and influence weather patterns over vast regions of the globe (IPCC 2001). Coastal and marine spatial planning (CMSP) – A public process of analyzing and allocating the spatial and temporal distribution of human activities in coastal and marine areas to achieve ecological, economic, and social objectives that are usually specified through a political process. Sometimes used inter- changeably with marine spatial planning (MSP) (Ehler and Douvere 2009). Co-management – A partnership arrangement between key stakeholders (e.g. communities of local resource users, such as fishers, tour operators, coastal developers, etc.) and government to share the respon- sibility and authority for the management of fisheries and coastal resources, with various degrees of power sharing. Community based management (CBM) – Management planning and implementation carried out by the people and stakeholders in a community. Connectivity – The demographic linking of local populations through dispersal of pelagic larvae and movement of juveniles or adults. There are different types of connectivity including connectivity among popu- lations in the same habitat in different locations; connectivity among marine habitats (e.g. where species use different habitats at different stages in their life history); and connectivity between the land and the sea (Jones et al 2009; Green et al. 2013). Coral Triangle Initiative on Coral Reefs, Fisheries, and Food Security (CTI-CFF) – A partnership of six countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Solomon Islands, and Timor- Leste) working together to sustain extraordinary marine and coastal resources by addressing crucial issues such as food security, climate change, and marine biodiversity (CTI-CFF 2009). CTI-CFF Regional Plan of Action (RPOA) – A 10-year, living, and non-legally-binding document to conserve and sustainably manage coastal and marine resources within the Coral Triangle region. The RPOA 6 Incorporating Climate and Ocean Change Into an Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management (EAFM) Plan takes into consideration laws and policies of each country in the Coral Triangle (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philip- pines, Timor-Leste, Papua New Guinea, and the Solomon Islands) (CTI-CFF 2009). Ecosystem – A relatively self-contained system that contains plants, animals (including humans), micro- organisms, and non-living components of the environment, as well as the interactions between them (SPC 2010). Ecosystem approach (EA) – A strategy for the integrated management of land, water, and living resources that promotes conservation and sustainable use in an equitable way. Often used interchangeably with ecosystem-based management (EBM) (CBD 2000). Ecosystem approach to fisheries management (EAFM) – An approach to fisheries man- agement and development that strives to balance diverse societal objectives by taking into account the knowledge and uncertainties about biotic, abiotic, and human components of ecosystems and their interac- tions and applying an integrated approach to fisheries within ecologically meaningful boundaries. An EAFM is a practical way to implement sustainable development for the management of fisheries by finding a bal- ance between ecological and human well-being through good governance. The purpose of EAFM is to plan, develop, and manage fisheries in a manner that addresses the multiple needs and desires of societies, without jeopardizing the options for future generations to benefit from the full range of goods and services provided by marine ecosystems (Garcia et al., 2003; Food and Agriculture Organisation 2003, 2011). Ecosystem approach to fisheries management plan (EAFM plan) – The output of a plan- ning framework that outlines the integrated set of management arrangements for a fishery to generate more acceptable, sustainable, and beneficial community outcomes. Ecosystem goods and services – The benefits people obtain from ecosystems. These include provisioning services such as food and water; regulating services, such as flood and disease control; cultural services, such as spiritual and cultural benefits; and supporting services, such as nutrient cycling or waste deg- radation, that maintain the conditions for life on Earth. Ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM) – Considered a component of ecosystem-based management, focused on the fisheries sector, EBFM considers both the impacts of the environment on fisher- ies health and productivity and the impacts that fishing has on all aspects of the marine ecosystem. Often used interchangeably with an ecosystem approach to fisheries management (EAFM). Ecosystem-based management (EBM) – A management framework that integrates biological, social, and economic factors into a comprehensive strategy aimed at protecting and enhancing the sustainability, diversity, and productivity of natural resources. EBM “emphasizes the protection of ecosystem structure, functioning, and key processes; is place-based in focusing on a specific ecosystem and the range of activities affecting it; explicitly accounts for the interconnectedness among systems, such as between air, land, and sea; and integrates ecological, social, economic, and institutional perspectives, recognizing their strong interdepen- dencies.” Sometimes used interchangeably with ecosystem approach (EA) (McLeod et al., 2005). Exposure – The extent to which a region, resource, or community experiences changes in climate. For example, a house on the shoreline will be more exposed to storm surges than a house further inland at a higher elevation (IPCC 2007). Fishery management unit (FMU) – The area of the ecosystem and fisheries that are the focus for management under an ecosystem approach to fisheries management. The fisheries can be any particular types of fishing—e.g. trawl fishery—and/or a particular resource fishery—e.g. shrimp fishery. Food security – The availability of consistent and sufficient quantities of food, access to appropriate and sufficient foods, and consumption or appropriate use of basic nutrition and food preparation. Incorporating Climate and Ocean Change Into an Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management (EAFM) Plan 7 Food web – A system of interlocking and interdependent food chains. Framework – A basic structure underlying a system or context. A framework can serve as a basis of poli- cies and approaches widely accepted enough to serve as a guide in the design and operation of a system. See ecosystem-based management for an example. Functional group – A collection of species that performs a similar function in ecosystem processes irrespective of their taxonomic grouping (Steneck and Dethier 1994), such as predators, grazers, bioeroders, primary producers, and habitat builders (e.g., Done et al. 1996). Governance or governance system – The way formal and informal rules are set and imple- mented. It includes the planning and implementation mechanisms, processes, and institutions through which citizens and governing groups (institutions and arrangements) voice their interests, mediate differences, exer- cise their legal rights, and meet their obligations. Habitat – The environment in which the fish and other living marine resources live, including everything that surrounds and affects their life—e.g., water quality, bottom, vegetation, associated species (including food supplies). Hazard – A dangerous phenomenon, substance, human activity, or condition that may cause loss of life, injury, or other health impacts; property damage; loss of livelihoods and services; social and economic dis- ruption; or environmental damage. Hazards can include latent conditions that may represent future threats and can have different origins. Each hazard is characterized by its location, intensity, and probability (World Meteorological Organization). Hazard risk reduction – Hazard risk reduction is the suite of actions that can be taken to minimize vulnerabilities and disaster risks throughout a society. Actions to reduce risk from natural and man-made hazards include those to avoid (prevention) or to limit (mitigation and preparedness) the adverse impacts of hazards, within the broad context of sustainable development (World Meteorological Organization). Indicator – A variable, pointer, or index that measures the current condition of a selected component of the ecosystem. The position and trend of the indicator in relation to a benchmark indicates the present status of the component. Indicators provide a bridge between objectives and action. Integrated coastal management (ICM) – An ecosystem approach to managing a coastal area. A continuous mechanism that involves a systematic process for managing competing issues in marine and coastal areas, including diverse and multiple uses of natural resources. ICM puts into practice effective gover- nance, active partnerships, practical coordinating strategies, sustainable financial resources, and strengthened technical institutional capacities. Under ICM, decisions are taken for the sustainable use, development, and protection of coastal and marine areas and resources. Integrated management plan – The integrated management plan is both a process and a docu- ment. Its primary goal is to provide a planning framework to achieve healthy ecosystems and sustainable use of fisheries resources and the process by which a given area will be managed for a period of time. Livelihood – “How we make our living, the things we use, and the choices we make to ensure that our lives run as we like.” A sustainable livelihood, then, is a livelihood that “can continue into the future despite any changes and disasters and without losing that which makes the livelihood possible. This may include food production or being prepared for natural disasters. It is important to remember that income generation may be just one part of a livelihood” (Govan 2011). 8 Incorporating Climate and Ocean Change Into an Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management (EAFM) Plan Local early action plan (LEAP) – A summary of the outputs of the four steps described in this guide. It includes a profile of the community, a climate story, assessment of vulnerability of target resources, and priority adaptation actions that a community wants to take to reduce vulnerability to climate and ocean change. The LEAP can serve as a stand-alone document that can be used to support budget requests, or parts of it can be integrated into existing plans (US CTI Support Program 2013). Locally managed area – Any area of coastline and marine waters that is managed by the local com- munity in collaboration with government or non-governmental organizations. This definition was developed to be inclusive of other commonly used terms for this type of locally based management including: Locally Marine Managed Areas (LMMAs); Territorial Use Rights in Fisheries (TURFs); Community-Based Coastal Resource Management (CBCRM); and Community-Based Management (CBM). LMAs can be a tool for any or all of the following: fisheries management, biodiversity conservation, threatened species management, eco- tourism development, and climate change adaptation (Gombos et al. 2013). Maladaptation – An action implemented to reduce vulnerability to climate and/or ocean change that impacts adversely on or increases the vulnerability of other systems, sectors, or social groups (Barnett and O’Neill 2010). Management goal – A broad statement of a desired outcome. Goals are usually not quantifiable and may not have established time frames for achievement. Management measures – Specific controls applied to achieve the management objective, including gear regulations, areas and time closures (see MPA), and input and output controls on fishing effort. Management objective – A description of a set of activities that, once completed, will achieve the desired outcome. Objectives can be quantified and measured and, where possible, have established time frames for achievement. Management plan – An explicit set of rules governing how to apply the principles and framework of natural resource management in a given area. This plan may be adapted to changes in the natural and social environment or upon the basis of new information about how a system functions. It may or may not have a legal basis for implementation. Marine Protected Area (MPA) – A clearly defined geographical space, recognized, dedicated and man- aged, through legal or other effective means, to achieve the long-term conservation of nature with associated ecosystem services and cultural values. MPAs include a wide variety of governance types (including com- munity based areas), and include but are not limited to marine reserves where no extraction is permitted (Dudley 2008; IUCN-WCPA 2008). Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) – See coastal and marine spatial planning Non-climate threats – Non-climate threats include natural hazards and local man-made threats. Non- climate threats make existing resources more sensitive to climate impacts. Target resources may be exposed to natural hazards such as tsunamis and earthquakes. Upland deforestation can cause sedimentation of nearshore waters, degrading coral reef habitats and making them more sensitive to climate impacts from, for example, increased sea surface temperature and ocean acidification. Ocean acidification (OA) – Ocean acidification occurs when CO2 from the atmosphere is absorbed into the ocean, reacting with water to create carbonic acid, decreasing both ocean pH and the concentration of the carbonate ion, which is essential for calcification by calcifying marine organisms such as corals (Kleypas et al. 2006). Incorporating Climate and Ocean Change Into an Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management (EAFM) Plan 9 Ocean change – A change in the state of ocean conditions that can be identified (e.g. using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties (e.g. temperature, salinity, currents, pH, etc.), and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer. Ocean changes of particular con- cern include ocean acidification, ocean warming, and ocean de-oxygenation. Operational objective – A short-term objective achievable through management intervention. Outcome – The change in status, attitude, or behavior that results from a set of management activities. An outcome should be able to be tracked through measurement and/or observation over time. Precautionary Approach – Where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty shall not be used as a reason for postponing cost-effective measures to prevent environ- mental degradation (UNCED 1992). Precautionary principle – Preparing for unknown changes and protecting resources is the best approach for long-term community resilience to keep resources healthy in the long-term. With or without climate and/or ocean change impacts, these are things that will help our community be happier and healthier over time. Promoting agency – The government agency that takes the lead in promoting a new concept, such as EAFM. Recruitment – The addition of a new cohort to a population, or the new cohort that was added. The magnitude of recruitment depends on the time and life history stage at which it is recorded (Mora and Sale 2002). Risk – A function of probability and consequence. Risk assessment is the process intended to calculate or estimate the risk to an object or system. Risk assessment includes identifying the severity of a hazard (its impact) and likelihood of it happening. Sensitivity – The degree to which a system is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by climate variabil- ity or change. The effect may be direct (e.g. a change in crop yield in response to a change in the mean, range, or variability of temperature) or indirect (e.g. damages caused by an increase in the frequency of coastal flooding due to sea-level rise) (IPCC 2007). Stakeholder – Any individual, group, or organization who has an interest in (or a “stake”), or who can affect or is affected, positively or negatively, by a process or management decision. Sub-national – A geographic or governance area that is smaller than the national level. Sub-national includes all designations of vertical governance structure between the community level and the national level. Examples include province or multi-province; local government unit (or regency) or multiple local govern- ments working together; and other appropriate designations. Sustainable development – Development (improvement in human well-being) that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. Sustainable use – The harvesting of natural resources that does not lead to long-term decline of the resource and biodiversity, thereby maintaining its potential to meets the needs of the present without com- promising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. US CTI Support Program implementation partners – Lead national agencies for MPAs, fisher- ies, and environment, Coral Triangle Support Partnership (CTSP) consortium members and other NGOs, key academic and technical persons involved in setting policy for MPAs, fisheries, and climate change, and CTSP field staff who lead projects in each country supported by the US-CTI. 10 Incorporating Climate and Ocean Change Into an Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management (EAFM) Plan US CTI Support Program integration sites – Geographic areas where the integration of MPA, fisheries, and climate change adaptation strategies are being planned and implemented under US Govern- ment funding and in support of Coral Triangle Initiative goals and objectives. US CTI Support Program priority geographies – Broad geographies within which are the proj- ect sites, where CTSP is providing technical and financial support for field conservation. Vulnerability – The degree to which a human or natural system is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate and/or ocean change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate change and variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity (IPCC 2001). Vulnerability assessment (VA) – An evaluation of the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of a target resource to climate and/or ocean change threats. It serves as a primary input to adaptation planning. Vulnerable species – A species considered to be facing a high risk of extinction in the wild (IUCN 2010). Weather – Atmospheric conditions at a particular place in terms of air temperature, pressure, humidity, wind speed, and rainfall. Weather is what is happening now or is likely to happen in the very near future. You can observe the weather by looking outside to see if it is raining, windy, sunny, or cloudy. You can tell how hot or cold it is by looking at a thermometer. Incorporating Climate and Ocean Change Into an Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management (EAFM) Plan 11 Acknowledgements This is a product of an expert workshop that was held on 6–9th March 2012 in Bohol, Philippines. The United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) funded the four-day workshop, which brought together 20 participants with scientific and policy expertise in ocean acidification, climate change, ecosystem approaches to fisheries management, and the Coral Triangle Initiative (CTI). Participants included representatives from the Coral Triangle Support Partnership (CTSP), the US CTI Program Integrator, California State University Monterey Bay, Hasanuddin University, James Cook University, RARE, Sec- retariat for the Pacific Community (SPC), University of British Columbia, University of the Philippines, Universiti Malaya, University of Sains Malaysia, University of Connecticut, the NOAA Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center, and the NOAA Coral Reef Conservation Program (Appendix A). 12 Incorporating Climate and Ocean Change Into an Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management (EAFM) Plan © USAID / CTSP / WWF / Tory Read Section 1 Introduction 1.1 What is the purpose of this climate and ocean change addendum? The countries in the Coral Triangle (Indonesia, Malaysia, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Solomon Islands, and Timor-Leste) are committed to applying an Ecosystem Approaches to Fisheries Management (EAFM) through the Coral Triangle Initiative’s (CTI) Regional Plan of Action for coral reefs, fisheries, and food security. There is, however, uncertainty over what needs to be done on local, national, and regional levels to develop an EAFM plan and transition towards this more holistic approach to fisheries management. The principals of an EAFM, and a suggested planning framework for implementing an EAFM, are outlined in the attached Coral Triangle Regional Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management Guidelines. The purpose of this addendum is to highlight how the potential impacts of climate and ocean change can be integrated into the EAFM planning process. Ultimately, dealing with the effects of climate and ocean change may become an implicit part of future EAFM plans; however, we have made a distinction here as an EAFM is a relatively new management paradigm for countries in the Coral Triangle (and elsewhere around the world). Moreover, climate and ocean change are relatively new challenges to be addressed in fisheries management. Therefore, the purpose of this addendum is to highlight and draw special attention to addi- Incorporating Climate and Ocean Change Into an Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management (EAFM) Plan 13 tional activities which, if included in the EAFM planning process, specifically incorporate climate and ocean change concerns into EAFM plan development. These additional activities can be useful in identifying whether the impacts of climate and ocean change are priority issues for a particular Fisheries Management Unit or geo- graphic area. If so, climate adaptation and mitigation actions can then be included in the EAFM plan. The guidance outlined here is specifically intended to be used alongside the Coral Triangle Regional Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management (EAFM) Guidelines. Together, the Guidelines on the EAFM planning process and on climate and ocean change can be used to understand and plan for the non-climate, climate, and ocean change threats to near-shore fisheries and coastal habitats. The planning process is intended to be applied within a defined Fisheries Management Unit, in which there are clear governance structures and decision- making processes. 1.2 Who should use the guidelines? These guidelines are intended to be used by the key agencies, stakeholders, and/or non-governmental orga- nizations (NGOs) central to the fisheries management process. The users will vary by country, province, and municipality and are identified as key promoting agencies for an EAFM, or implementing groups. The EAFM promoting agency is typically the government fisheries management agency, but could also be an active stake- holder group or a NGO. The implementing group may be mandated to engage in an EAFM. Alternatively, the implementing group may be composed of practitioners working within and with governments and communi- ties that normally facilitate capacity development, such as environmental NGOs. Irrespective, these guidelines are written for organizations and people that are responsible for implementing an EAFM. 1.3 How can the climate and ocean change guidelines be used? The Guidelines outline and discuss five steps to develop and implement an EAFM plan (Figure 1). In instances where climate change and ocean change are already issues of concern, specific activities in the planning steps of the Guidelines could be considered during the EAFM planning process. Activities to evaluate the poten- tial vulnerability to climate and ocean change are also outlined. If climate and ocean change are not already priority issues, they can be systematically evaluated and reviewed over time, and included in the adaptive management cycle as appropriate. Figure 1. The five steps in the EAFM planning process. 14 Incorporating Climate and Ocean Change Into an Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management (EAFM) Plan There is no single or set method for the EAFM planning process—the activities outlined here are simply a recommended set of generic planning steps. The steps should be considered and tailored to best suit the needs and the cultural, political, and economic conditions of the management unit and coastal communities in question. The promoting agency should review and adapt the steps and activities as necessary. When customizing the planning process for a specific area, it will be important to evaluate and build upon the management strategies already in place. If there are existing strategies for, for example, community develop- ment, climate change adaptation (CCA), integrated coastal management (ICM), local marine managed areas (LMMAs), marine protected areas (MPAs), and watershed management—which may form part of wider marine spatial planning (MSP) or ecosystem-based management (EBM) efforts—it may be appropriate to skip certain steps, or integrate existing information and products into the EAFM planning process. Finally, the EAFM planning process is consultative throughout—it relies on effective integration of expertise, information, and decision-making across multiple sectors, stakeholders, and government agencies. All con- sultative actions should be adapted and conducted in a manner that best suits local and regional customs, governance structures, and decision-making processes. 1.4 An overview of the EAFM planning process An EAFM aims to balance societal and economic needs while maintaining ecological function and resilience (FAO 2009). To do this, measures are taken to manage not only the interaction between fishers and fisher- ies resources but the impact that fishing can have on habitats and ecosystems, as well as the impact that other sectors have on fisheries. The fundamental difference between an EAFM and traditional approaches to fisheries management is that rather than focusing on a specific fisheries resource (species) throughout its dis- tribution, EAFM is a place-based management approach that strives to manage multiple activities that directly or indirectly affect local fisheries. The definition of the management area, or Fisheries Management Unit, is crucial to effective implementation of an EAFM because it provides for managing an ecosystem rather than jurisdictional or political boundaries. For more detail, see the companion Coral Triangle Regional Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management (EAFM) Guidelines (or FAO 2009 and UNEP 2011). The practical implementation of an EAFM revolves around a cycle of five steps: Pre-step: start-up tasks; Step 1: define and scope the Fisheries Management Unit (FMU); Step 2: identify and prioritize goals; Step 3: develop the EAFM plan; Step 4: implement the plan; and Step 5: monitor, evaluate, and adapt. At the heart of the EAFM process is the EAFM plan, which is an integrated fisheries management plan. This plan integrates the activities of different sectors and stakeholders that directly and indirectly affect coastal ecosystems and fisheries to achieve sustainable resource management. By definition, an EAFM is participatory, with stake- holder involvement throughout the planning and management process; management is adaptive; and the plan will contain broad (holistic) objectives relevant to the Fisheries Management Unit (FMU). The process described here for integrating adaptation and mitigation of the ecological and socioeconomic impacts of climate and ocean change provides adds additional considerations to the EAFM planning process. In particular, it addresses the need to assess the impacts of a changing climate and ocean, which over time should become an implicit part of the EAFM process. 1.5 Scope of these guidelines The guidance outlined here is targeted at the small-scale coastal fisheries of the Coral Triangle region, which are based on both bottom-dwelling and near-shore pelagic species. However, the solutions and adaptations that arise in an EAFM focused on small-scale coastal fisheries will likely include other resources like tuna, and other sectors, e.g. aquaculture. The Secretariat of the Pacific Community (SPC) and the Western and Central Pacific Fisheries Commission (WCPFC) acknowledge that more of the tuna resources of the region need to be allocated to local food-security needs (SPC 2008) and the Pacific Islands Forum Fisheries Agency (FFA) has long promoted an ecosystem approach to managing tuna resources (www.ffa.int). Incorporating Climate and Ocean Change Into an Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management (EAFM) Plan 15 Section 2 How is the climate in the Coral Triangle expected to change? The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is a United Nations effort to periodically synthesize the most up-to-date scientific information to make projections about how the climate may change over time and how those changes may impact society at global and regional scales. The Earth’s physical climate system is driven by variation in natural internal processes (e.g. El Niño), external influences (e.g. volcanic activity, variations in solar output, earth-sun orientation), and human activities (e.g. greenhouse gas emissions, human- sourced aerosols, ozone depletion, and land-use changes). The IPCC projections are based on physical climate models in response to different global development and greenhouse gas scenarios. The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) provides the most complete summary of climate change effects for the Coral Triangle region to date (IPCC 2007). Currently, there is a global effort to analyze the model outputs in preparation for the IPCC 5th Assessment Report for release in late 2013. For an accessible descrip- tion of how models are used as tools to predict climate change, refer to Bell et al. (2011: Chapter 1 Section 1.8.2). Two issues need to be highlighted when interpreting the current climate projections for the Coral Triangle region: those of scale and uncertainty. Projected responses of the ocean and marine organisms are most robust when averaged over long time periods (e.g. 50-100 years) and broad regional areas. Uncertainty increases at smaller resolutions (local scales). In addition, model bias and the coarse resolution limits the application of model outputs to make impact assessments on living resources in limited areas (Stock et al. 2011). Furthermore, the confidence in model estimates is higher for some climatic variables (e.g. temperature) compared to others (e.g. rainfall). An aggregate multi-model approach that takes projections from a number of independent climate models is recommended to address some of these limitations (Australian Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO 2011). With this in mind, it is important to consider an appropriate suite of model projections for the Coral Triangle region and a range of possible planning scenarios. Nonetheless, models unanimously project that the Coral Triangle region is likely to experience consider- able increases in sea-surface temperature (SST) and rainfall (Table 1). Over the next century, projected (SST) increases range from 1 to 4°C (depending on the specific scenario and model used). Rainfall is pro- jected to increase in the Western Equatorial Pacific, and higher variability in rainfall is expected. However, year-to-year climatic variability in the region is strongly affected by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, and IPCC-AR4 models do not agree as to whether ENSO events will become more or less frequent. Multiple models agree that the most intense tropical cyclones will become more frequent globally, but there is no consensus as to where these more intense events will be located (Australian Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO 2011). Global sea-level rise was conservatively estimated as at least 30-60 cm in AR4, but large deviations among models make the regional distribution of sea-level rise uncertain. More recent research efforts suggest that sea-level rise over the next century could be as much as ~1 m (Lowe and Gregory 2010, Rignot et al. 2011, Meehl et al. 2012, but see Kerr 2009), or greater (Australian Bureau of Meteorol- ogy and CSIRO 2011). 16 Incorporating Climate and Ocean Change Into an Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management (EAFM) Plan The AR4 projections outlined above and shown in Table 1 will soon be superseded by the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report in 2013/2014. The “models unanimously AR5 will also contain a multi-model data set, including a new class of project that the Coral model, called Earth System Models (ESM). These ESMs differ from the models used in the AR4 in that they project changes in biogeochemi- Triangle region is cal cycles and ecosystems, including parameters such as chlorophyll, likely to experience nutrients, productivity, and ocean change, like oxygen levels. Regional considerable projections on the physical and biogeochemical conditions for the Coral increases in sea- Triangle from one of the state-of-the-art ESM models developed for AR5 are outlined below. These projections are based on the NOAA surface temperature Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) version 2 Earth System (SST) and rainfall” Model using the Modular Ocean Model (ESM2M; Dunne et al. 2012a; Dunne et al. 2012b). ESM2M predicts a strong intensification of the Pacific basin-scale “... it is important atmospheric meridional overturning (Hadley circulation), and west-east to consider an overturning (Walker circulation) with equatorial uplift centered on the appropriate suite of warmest waters. Both circulations interact strongly with ENSO over the Paciﬁc Ocean. Intensification of these circulation patterns serves to model projections for increase rainfall, decreases surface salinity, decreases direct visible the Coral Triangle light (more clouds) (Fig. 2), and decreases trade winds and cur- region and a range rents in the high-rainfall region north of Papua New Guinea (PNG) while increasing winds over Indonesia (Fig. 3). The combination of of possible planning increased stratification and decreased wind-driven ocean mixing leads scenarios.” to decreased nutrient supply from deeper nutrient-rich waters and decreased net productivity in the Central and Western Pacific Ocean (Fig. 3), with the opposite happening west of Indonesia in the Indian Ocean. At the same time, open ocean uptake of CO2 (which results in ocean acidification) is expected to result in a 50 percent decrease in the aragonite saturation state (Fig. 3). Aragonite is a form of calcium carbonate used by corals and other calcifying organisms (e.g. mollusks) to build their skeletons and shells. It is important to recognize, however, that these results are from only “... management a single model, and that more rigorous analysis should be conducted efforts should across a multi-model AR5 ensemble. However, some models will focus on what a reproduce aspects of the climate system better than others in differ- ent regions (Stock et al. 2011); therefore, model choice should take into range of possible account the skill of the model in predicting climate variables of interest temperatures or sea- in the CTI region. As these models continue to be developed and the level-rise projections spatial and temporal resolution improves with anticipated increases in computing power, we expect that models will become increasingly might mean for useful for investigating important smaller-scale features and regional- planning, rather than scale representations. In the meantime, management efforts should concentrating on focus on what a range of possible temperatures or sea-level-rise specific values.” projections might mean for planning, rather than concentrating on specific values. Incorporating Climate and Ocean Change Into an Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management (EAFM) Plan 17 Table 1. Summary of climate projections for the Coral Triangle Region adapted from the IPCC AR4 Report (IPCC 2007) Values are multi-model ranges for all Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) Sea surface Sea level Winds and temperature rise Rainfall tropical cyclones Ocean circulation Projected change: Projected Projected Projected change: No con- Projected change: Relatively Annual, maximum, change: change: General sensus on changes in location little information on how and minimum ~30-60 cm indication that or frequency/intensity. Con- ocean circulation patterns temperatures rise by equatorial Pacific sensus that tropical cyclones will change in the Coral surrounding the 2100, rainfall will will become more intense Triangle, but substantial Coral Triangle are possibly increase. (with greater maximum wind changes in ocean circula- warming (0.09-0.12 >1m speeds and heavier rainfall). tion of the Tropical Pacific degrees Celsius Projected vari- Most of Coral Triangle region are expected, which will per decade) and ability: More (except northern Philippines) affect biological productiv- are projected to extreme rainfall is too close to equator to ity. Progressive weakening increase by 1-4° C events are likely. be significantly impacted by of the South Equatorial by 2100. Inter-annual tropical cyclones. Current, which will become variability of confined to surface layers, monsoon rainfall and a strengthening of the may increase. Equatorial undercurrent in Intensity of the Western Pacific, which drought associ- will also become shal- ated with a given lower directly beneath the rainfall deficit South Equatorial Current. may be greater. Note: ENSO, particularly El Niño’s, significantly modu- late SSTs and rainfall in the Coral Triangle. No clear consensus as to how the frequency and intensity of ENSO events will change, though the Pacific may become more “El Niño like.” 18 Incorporating Climate and Ocean Change Into an Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management (EAFM) Plan Figure 2. Projected changes (anomalies) of physical ocean characteristics for the Coral Triangle Region by 2100 Visible light (top row, left), rainfall (top row, middle), relative humidity (top row, right), wind (middle row, left), and currents (bottom row, left) are represented as percentage change from the years 1980-1999 to 2080- 2099. Air and sea surface temperature (middle row, middle and right) are in °C, sea surface salinity (bottom row, middle) in Practical Salinity Units (PSU), and sea-level rise (bottom row, right) is in meters. Model output is from the GFDL ESM2M forced with the RCP 8.5 “worst-case” scenario (Dunne et al. 2012a). Incorporating Climate and Ocean Change Into an Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management (EAFM) Plan 19 Figure 3. Projected biogeochemical ocean characteristics for the Coral Triangle Region by 2100 Sea surface chlorophyll (upper row, left), nitrate (upper row, middle), phosphate (upper row, right), iron (middle row, left), total primary productivity (middle row, middle), large phytoplankton alone (middle row, right), sinking flux (bottom row, left), aragonite super-saturation (bottom row, middle) and minimum oxygen value at any depth (bottom row, right). All values are represented as percentage change from the years 1980- 1999 to 2080-2099 using the GFDL ESM2M model forced with the RCP 8.5 “worst-case” scenario (Dunne et al. 2012b). 20 Incorporating Climate and Ocean Change Into an Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management (EAFM) Plan Section 3 How might a changing climate affect fisheries in the Coral Triangle? Fisheries will experience significant impacts from climate and ocean change over coming decades, both directly through changes in the physical and chemical environment (e.g. rising ocean temperatures and decreasing pH), and indirectly through changes to habitat and food supply. 3.1 Habitat impacts Coral reef habitat is highly susceptible to degradation from thermally-induced coral bleaching, physical damage from stronger storms, and reduced calcification due to ocean acidification (Table 2; Munday et al. 2008; Pratchett et al. 2011; Hughes et al. 2003; Guinotte et al. 2003; Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2007, 2011). Loss of coral cover and the declining structural complexity caused by climate change and ocean acidification are predicted to have highly significant effects on reef fish populations and communities (Wilson et al. 2006; Pratchett et al. 2008; Munday et al. 2010a). There is ample evidence that the abundance of coral-dependent fishes declines sharply following coral loss (Munday et al. 2004; Pratchett et al. 2006; Wilson et al. 2006). However, population declines are not limited to coral-dependent species, with up to 65 percent of reef fish species exhibiting population declines following large-scale loss of coral cover at some locations (Jones et al. 2004; Wilson et al. 2006). Loss of structural complexity, either from storm damage or bioerosion of dead coral skeletons following coral bleaching, causes a further significant decline in abundance for many fish species (Pratchett et al. 2008), and can be associated with a reduction in species richness and taxonomic distinctness (Graham et al. 2006). Declines are often greatest for smaller-bodied species (< 20cm) that depend on the structure of reef habitat for shelter (Graham et al. 2008). Nevertheless, loss of critical habitat for small reef fishes can also affect larger predatory species. For example, Wilson et al. (2008) found that prey availability associated with the degree of habitat complexity was a more important driver of total piscivore abundance than fishing pressure on reefs in Fiji. Abundances of some herbivorous species may initially increase follow- ing coral loss, presumably due to increased food availability (Wilson et al. 2006), but even these species may decline following loss of habitat structural complexity. Small generalist species and rubble-dwellers are expected to increase in abundance as these types of habitat become more widespread on degraded reefs (Bellwood et al. 2006). Of all the potential effects of climate change and ocean acidification on reef fish assemblages, habitat degradation is predicted to be the most significant and have the most immediate impact (Munday et al. 2010a; Pratchett et al. 2011). Incorporating Climate and Ocean Change Into an Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management (EAFM) Plan 21 Table 2. Predicted impacts of climate change and ocean acidification on populations and communities of reef fishes in the Coral Triangle Levels of certainty based on expert judgment. Modified from Munday et al. 2010a Impact Physical driver/s Details Certainty Reduced Loss of coral cover and Sharp declines in abundance of coral-dependent High abundances declining structural com- species and species that prefer to settle near live and changes plexity of habitat from coral coral. Longer-term declines in abundances of other to community bleaching, increased storm species as habitat structure decreases. Increased composition damage, and reduced calci- abundance of some herbivores, small generalist spe- of reef fishes fication rates of corals and cies, and rubble-dwellers. crustose coralline algae Change to fish Increased temperature Species composition will change due to inter-spe- High community cific differences in tolerance to higher temperatures. structure Reproductive Increased temperature Some low-latitude species will experience reduced Moderate decline reproductive performance. Life history Increased temperature On average individuals will tend to grow faster Moderate modification during early life, reach smaller maximum sizes, and be shorter lived. Effect size may be small compared to existing natural variation in life history traits. Reduced Increased temperature Small increases in water temperature will tend to Moderate pelagic dura- accelerate larval development and competency tion to settle. Larger increases in temperature may be detrimental to embryonic or larval survival. Changes to larval duration and/or survival probability could influence population connectivity. More Increased temperature and Shorter pelagic durations and faster larval growth Moderate extremes in changes in primary produc- will tend to reduce larval mortality. However, higher recruitment tivity and ocean circulation metabolic rates will increase the risk of starvation where food supply is limited. Highly variable and unpredictable—some locations may tend to have better recruitment and others poorer recruitment. Reduced pro- Increased temperature and Less nutrient enrichment due to greater stratifica- Moderate ductivity changes in ocean circulation tion of surface waters in combination with increased metabolic demands of consumers could reduce productivity at higher trophic levels. Highly variable and unpredictable—productivity may increase at some locations. Behavioral Ocean acidification Elevated CO2 levels could affect homing ability, High and sensory habitat selection, and predator avoidance of larval, impairment juvenile, and adult fish. 22 Incorporating Climate and Ocean Change Into an Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management (EAFM) Plan There is less information available on the observed effects of climate change on seagrass meadows, man- groves, and intertidal reef flat habitats. Despite the importance of these coastal habitats as nursery areas for juvenile fish and invertebrates and as primary habitats for important fisheries species, there is a real lack of information on both the extent of these habitats and the potential effects on climate change. Bearing this knowledge gap in mind, of the projected variation in environmental conditions sea-level rise is likely to have the most significant impact on mangrove habitats. A landward retreat is expected, as mangroves are unlikely to be able to accumulate sediment at the rate necessary to keep up with the rise in sea level (Waycott et al. 2011). Sea level rise is also expected to lead to a loss of deep-water seagrass habitats present at edge of their depth limits; otherwise, only a moderate loss of seagrass habitat is expected due to the combined changes in other environmental variables (Waycott et al. 2011). 3.2 Biological impacts of temperature change on individuals, larval supply and populations Temperature changes of just a few degrees Celsius can influence the physiological condition, developmental rate, growth rate, reproductive performance, and behavior of fishes (Munday et al. 2008). Consequently, rising sea temperature could have a range of important ecological ramifications for reef fish populations and communities (Table 1). Recent studies show that there is significant variation in the sensitivity of different coral reef fish species to elevated water temperature. While the physiological performance of some spe- cies declines dramatically with an increase of 2-3°C (Nilsson et al. 2009; Donelson et al. 2010), other species appear more tolerant. Consequently, the composition of local fish communities are expected to change as the more thermally-sensitive species decline in abundance and probably shift their distributions to higher latitudes where temperatures will be more favorable. Furthermore, most fish reproduce within a narrow temperature range and declines in reproductive output are likely (Donelson et al. 2010; Pankhurst and Munday 2011), especially for low-latitude populations that have little opportunity to shift the timing of breed- ing to more favorable seasonal temperatures (Srinivasan and Jones 2006). Reduced reproductive effort could have significant effects on the replenishment of fish populations. In gen- eral, the effects of rising water temperature on the sustainability of fish populations at specific locations are expected to be most noticeable in low-latitude populations, which appear to be living close to their thermal optimum and have less capacity to cope with future temperature increases compared with populations from higher latitudes (Gardiner et al. 2010). In addition to the poleward shift in the distribution of more thermally- sensitive species, a deepwater shift may also occur. In the western rock lobster fishery in Australia, increased temperature may have contributed to the decrease in size at maturity and decrease in the abundance of undersized and legal-sized lobsters in shallow water, with a shift in catch to deep water observed over the last 35-40 years (Caputi et al. 2010). A recent modeling study that accounts for inferred thermal tolerance of a wide range of marine fishes and invertebrates projects a high rate of local extinction of these species in low- latitude regions under a scenario of doubling of carbon dioxide by 2100 relative to the 2000 level (Cheung et al. 2009). Environmental factors are already major drivers of variation in fish and invertebrate larval supply and recruit- ment. Life history traits of exploited marine fish and invertebrates, such as growth rate and maximum size, will be affected by rising ocean temperature, with potential implications for fisheries yields (Cheung et al. 2010, 2011), although these effects may be difficult to detect against natural variation in life history traits and fishing effects among locations without long time-series data. Another concern is that higher ocean tem- peratures could lead to increased recruitment variation and more recruitment failures (Munday et al. 2008). Although a small increase in temperature may accelerate larval growth and development (O’Connor et al. 2007), it will also increase metabolic rate and make larval fish more susceptible to starvation. When com- bined with a possible reduction in primary productivity due to increased stratification of the surface ocean (Cheung et al. 2010), there is likely to be a greater risk of larval failing to find adequate food resources. The combined effects of elevated temperature on adult reproduction and the survival of larvae in the plankton Incorporating Climate and Ocean Change Into an Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management (EAFM) Plan 23 could have a highly significant impact on the supply of recruits to replenish benthic populations (Loy-Yat et al. 2011), although such impacts are likely to be spatially and temporally variable and difficult to predict (Munday et al. 2008). Projected weakening in the velocity of the South Equatorial Current and the South Equatorial Counter Current (Ganachaud et al. 2011) near Papua New Guinea and Solomon Islands can also be expected to affect larval fish supply through altered patterns of larval dispersal and “homing” behavior of larval fish (Pratchett et al. 2011). 3.4 Biological impacts of ocean change Although fish generally appear to be tolerant to ocean acidification (Ishimatsu et al. 2008; Melzner et al. 2009; Munday et al. 2011), recent studies have demonstrated that levels of CO2 predicted to occur in the surface ocean by the end of this century can impair sensory functions and alter the behavior of larval, juvenile, and adult reef fishes (Munday et al. 2009; Dixson et al. 2010; Simpson et al. 2011; Nilsson et al. 2012). Habitat selection, homing ability, and predator avoidance are all affected by exposure to high CO2 (Munday et al. 2009; Dixson et al. 2010; Simpson et al. 2011; Devine et al. 2012a,b). Most notably, behavioral changes affect predator-prey interactions, leading to higher mortality rates of new recruits and juveniles, with potential consequences for population replenishment (Munday et al. 2010b; Ferrari et al. 2011). The effects of ocean acidification are expected to have the greatest impact on invertebrates, due to their calcium carbonate shells and skeletons; however, the adaptive capacity of species to ocean acidification is not well understood and there is large variation across different taxa (Kroeker et al. 2010, 2013). The development of weaker shells under more acidic conditions, as observed in larval oysters (Miller et al. 2009), could lead to a decrease in the successful recruitment and an increase in predation on invertebrate species (Pratchett et al. 2011). Increased predation on coral recruits reared in acidic conditions has been observed, along with a shift in the size at which recruits are less vulnerable to predation (Doropoulos et al. 2012). How this will manifest into larger- scale habitat impacts over time is not understood, and a major limitation in our ability to predict the impacts of climate change and ocean acidification on fisheries populations and communities is a lack of information on the capacity for acclimation and adaptation. Although tropical species are generally considered to have less capacity for acclimation and adaptation to climate change than temperate species (Stillman 2003; Tewksbury et al. 2008), new studies have revealed remarkable potential for long-term trans-generational acclimation to elevated temperatures in one reef-fish species (Donelson et al. 2012). Further studies will be required to determine if similar capacity to adjust to climate change over multiple generations occurs in other species. 3.5 Fisheries yield impacts Climate change and ocean change are expected to affect fisheries yields (Sumaila et al. 2011; Pratchett et al. 2011). Growth of fish and invertebrate populations are dependent on temperature. Under ocean warming, the increased metabolic demand is expected to lead to a reduction in the maximum body size (Cheung et al. 2011). Warming will shift the environment away from the optimal conditions for some species and nega- tively affect their growth and recruitment. Such impacts may be exacerbated by ocean acidification (Denman et al. 2011). Simultaneously, primary production that is available for fish stocks is affected by various aspects of climate change, such as changes in temperature and wind stress (Le Borgne et al. 2011). The global Earth System Models project a reduction in primary production in the tropics by the end of the 21st century (Steinacher et al. 2010), although such projections have low representation of coastal and shelf seas (Stock et al. 2011). The climate change-induced degradation of habitats will also affect the abundance and productiv- ity of fish stocks. The consequences of the combined effect of these changes include an overall reduction in maximum catch potential in low-latitude regions (Cheung et al. 2010). Particularly, areas that are strongly dependent on mollusk fisheries are vulnerable to ocean acidification-driven decreases in fisheries (Cooley et al. 2012). The bottom-up effects of global climate and ocean changes are likely to interact with the top-down effects of fishing, exacerbating the overall impacts (Ainsworth et al. 2011; Griffin et al. 2011). 24 Incorporating Climate and Ocean Change Into an Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management (EAFM) Plan © CTSP / Tory Read 3.6 Sea level rise impacts The ecological impacts of sea-level rise will vary depending upon the geological character of the shoreline and topography. Where topography is low and/or shoreline sediments are easily eroded, there will likely be significant sedimentation and decreased water quality that could impact coral reef and other sensitive habitats (Blanchon et al. 2009). Greater inundation of reef flats can erode residual soils and lagoon deposits (Adey et al. 1977; Lighty et al. 1978) and produce greater sediment transport (Hopley and Kinsey 1988). In low-lying developed coastal areas, people may either need to vacate areas over time or invest in the construction of, for example, seawalls and levees or repairing and relocating shore-based facilities; however, flood defense mechanisms could disrupt, for example, natural sediment transport cycles. Longer term, the hardening or development of the shoreline could prevent the landward migration of coastal habitats; wetland and coastal development should, therefore, allow for the gradual movement of habitats in response to rising sea level. Coastal communities may also experience the salinization of irrigation water, freshwater, and estuarine habi- tats, posing significant health risks due to a reduction in the availability of freshwater. Incorporating Climate and Ocean Change Into an Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management (EAFM) Plan 25 Over the longer term, the impacts of sea-level rise will not necessarily be negative, raising water levels above existing reef flats and by shoreward migration of coastlines could also provide increased overall area for many shallow-water habitats and the marine species and ecosystems that they support. The influence of sea-level rise is likely to have mixed responses for many marine species depending on their depth preferences, sedi- mentation tolerances, growth rates, and the near-shore topography. In summary, sea-level rise is an inevitable effect of climate change, but as discussed above, the extent and consequences remain somewhat uncertain. We do, however, know which areas will be most vulnerable: low-lying coastal communities. 3.7 Socioeconomic impacts of climate and ocean change The impact of climate change on the fisheries sector in socioeconomic terms is difficult to assess, not only because of the great uncertainty regarding the extent and rate of climate change, but also due to the uncertainty surrounding the impacts on biophysical processes and how these propagate upwards through ecosystems to harvest stocks or use ecosystem services (Daw et al. 2009). There is a high dependence on fish and fish products for food and livelihoods in the Coral Triangle region (Foale et al. 2012; Bell et al. 2009). Fish constitute a high proportion of export income in parts of Asia, and a major source of dietary protein—typically 40 percent of all animal protein consumed per year. It is important to note that socially and economically important environmental changes result not simply from climate change but from interac- tions between climate, ecosystem, and resource usage. Environmental changes affect people differently and through interactions with various social, economic, and institutional factors (Daw et al. 2009). Arnason (2003) proposed that climate change may impact fisheries in at least two different ways: by altering the availability of fish to fishers (direct impact) and by changing the price of fish products and fisheries inputs (indirect impact). Previous research has demonstrated the economic impact on fisheries through changes in climate. International studies have projected the displacement of several million people from the region’s coastal zone in the event of a 1-m rise in sea level. The costs of response measures to reduce the impact of sea-level rise (30-50 cm) in the Coral Triangle region could amount to many millions of dollars per year. Climate shocks on Asia-Pacific fisheries are predicted to have significant economic and food security conse- quences for the poorest people in the region (Briones et al. 2005). Changes in the availability of fish and fish products, through stock redistribution and abundance, can affect total revenues and harvesting costs (net revenues) of fishers, thus influencing the choice of target species. Fluctuations in sea-surface temperatures have been shown to have significant effects on fishing effort (Gillet 2003). Changes in fish distribution and availability can increase travel time and lead to increased fuel and ice costs. As species distributions change in response to climate change, small-scale fishers may be less able to adapt by following them because of limited mobility. Pinsky and Fogarty (2012) reported on the economic and regula- tory constraints on the ability of fisheries to keep apace with the northward shift in species distribution as observed over 40 years in the Northeastern US. These constraints will likely also apply, with the potential to be felt more strongly by small-scale fishers, such as those in the Coral Triangle. Traditional area-based access rights institutions will become strained by the loss or relocation of local resources. However, while some fisher folk will see the disappearance of their target species, others could see an increase in landings of species of high commercial value (Badjeck 2008). A reduction in exports can cause a great deal of hardship in already strained fishing industries in the non- Pacific Island countries of the Coral Triangle (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Timor-Leste) and generate adverse long-term economic consequences (Caviedas and Fik 1992). 26 Incorporating Climate and Ocean Change Into an Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management (EAFM) Plan A reduction in financial capital, for instance access to credit and loans, has been observed as a consequence of climatic variability. As a result of decreasing catches, government financial resources can be reduced, leaving fishers without a safety net and access to financial resources to cope with the difficult economic situation. Increases in storms and floods can lead to decreased fishing capacity and decreased access to markets. Storm and severe weather events can destroy or severely damage infrastructure and equipment such as port, land- ing sites, and boats. While infrastructure damages are recoverable, the time necessary for such an endeavor can be critical for the fisheries sector and in countries where state assistance is minimal and financial capital limited the impact of extreme events could be damaging in the longer term. In general, small-scale fishers in the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Timor Leste will be particularly vulnerable to the direct climate-change impacts because they tend to live in the most seaward communities and are thus at risk from damage to property and infrastructure from multiple direct impacts such as sea- level rise, increasing storm intensity and frequency. There are no projections for increased storm frequency in Papau New Guinea and the Solomon Islands. Furthermore, the worsening storms—for example, in the Philippines—may also increase the risks associated with working at sea, and changes in weather patterns may disrupt fishing practices that are based on traditional knowledge of local weather and current systems. Disruption of other sectors (e.g. agriculture, tourism, and manufacturing) by extreme events could lead to indirect socioeconomic effects. The displacement of labor into fishing can lead to conflicts over labor opportunities and increased fishing pressure. Droughts and resultant agricultural failure may lead to so-called “environmental refugees” moving to coastal areas and creating an influx of surplus fishing labor. The livelihoods of small-scale fishers are already vulnerable to a range of non-climate risks, including fluc- tuating resources, loss of access, HIV/AIDS, market fluctuations, conflict, political marginalization, and poor governance (Allison et al. 2008). This insecurity inhibits investment in long-term strategies for sustainable fish- eries and will be exacerbated by additional insecurities caused by climate change impacts. Small-scale fishers also generally lack insurance. Environmental changes affect people differentially and through interactions with social factors. Social net- works and cohesion (social capital) are important, in addition to skills (human capital), investments (physical capital), and alternative resources (natural capital): all shape how the benefits and costs are distributed. (Hamilton et al. 2003). The socioeconomic effects of ocean change are hard to determine but could amount to many billions of dol- lars. Incorporating Climate and Ocean Change Into an Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management (EAFM) Plan 27 Section 4 Climate and ocean change vulnerability assessment for an EAFM 4.1 Why do a vulnerability assessment? If you are concerned about how climate and ocean change may affect plans to use fisheries resources in a sustainable way, then performing a vulnerability assessment is a way to better understand these effects. A climate change vulnerability assessment is an instrument for the systematic examination of who and what is vulnerable, to what and why. In doing so, vulnerability assessments facilitate adaptation to climate and ocean change by identifying the implications to marine resources, fisheries, food security, livelihoods, and the econ- omy more generally. To achieve this, both the direct effects of climate change on fish stocks and the indirect effects on their supporting habitats need to be investigated. To be most effective, the results of the climate change vulnerability assessment need to be a part of the adaptive management process; specifically, they will need to be systematically reviewed and updated over time when new information becomes available, like the IPCC Assessment reports, or as conditions within the FMU may change over time. To deal with the inevitable but uncertain effects of climate change in fisheries, the ongoing process of performing climate change vulner- ability assessments will be a key part of an EAFM. 4.2 What is vulnerability and how do you measure it? The vulnerability of coastal human communities or natural systems to climate and ocean change can be considered as the level of susceptibility to harm by events such as coral bleaching, storm damage, and sea- level rise (Gallopin 2006). Vulnerability is calculated by integrating three measures; exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Following the definitions of Marshall et al. (2010), exposure is the extent to which a system comes into contact with climate hazards, or specific climate impacts. Sensitivity is the degree to which a built, natural, or human system is negatively affected by changes in climate conditions (e.g. temperature and rainfall) or specific climate or ocean change impacts (e.g. sea level rise, increased water temperature). Adaptive capac- ity is the potential, capability, or ability of built, natural, and human systems to adapt to impacts of climate change and variability with minimal potential damage or cost. Thus, assessing an area’s vulnerability to the impacts of climate and ocean change involves understanding: 1) the climate projections for a given region or area, 2) what is at risk (climate change exposure and sensitivity), and 3) the capacity of the ecosystem (both natural and human) to cope with the expected or actual climate changes (adaptive capacity). Combined, these three factors define the vulnerability of people, fish, and ecosystems in a place to climate and ocean change. The vulnerability of marine ecosystems, fisheries, and economies will be location specific and a number of the EAFM decisions which affect vulnerability are often made at a local Fisheries Management Unit level, which is the focus here for vulnerability assessments. Currently, the science for predicting change in climate param- eters is reasonably well defined; for example, there already exist national vulnerability assessments for Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands, which include the projected changes in sea-surface temperature, sea level, ocean pH, currents, and nutrient supply (Bell et al. 2011). Regional predictions of climate parameters and how they will vary over time (see Section 2: How is the climate in the Coral Triangle expected to change?) 28 Incorporating Climate and Ocean Change Into an Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management (EAFM) Plan can be used to explore different future climate scenarios in a vulnerability assessment for a particular Fisher- ies Management Unit areas. Because the purpose of the vulnerability assessment at the scale of the Fisheries Management Unit area will be to provide specific information that can guide local decision making, local stakeholders will be integral to selecting vulnerability indicators. Local-level information can be used to select criteria that will mirror stakeholders concerns and the decision-making process in the Local Management Unit area (Naess et al. 2006). A vulnerability assessment is a tool to better understand how climate change threats will impact important natural and social resources and systems such as coastal habitats and ecosystems, fisheries, human settle- ments, human health, freshwater resources, and economics activities such as tourism. For EAFM, a fisheries climate-vulnerability assessment (for example, US CTI Support Program LEAP Guide), as coastal com- munity and fisheries systems vulnerabilities (social and ecological) and adaptive capacity are intrinsically linked. Together, this can inform the adaptation options within a community development plan, as coastal communi- ties will experience a wide range of hazards that will include climate and non-climate threats, like man-made hazard events, from natural processes (earthquakes, tsunamis, king tides), man-made hazard events (hazard- ous material and oil spills), in addition to climate change-related threats (sea level rise, storm surge, ocean acidification). A fisheries vulnerability assessment can be done at a national level, sub-national or a more local level. Vulnerability assessments normally assess a coastal areas vulnerability to climate change at the municipal or community level. While community vulnerability assessments will normally consider climate-change threats to the fisheries and associated habitats and ecosystems, the information obtained may not be as detailed as suggested in these guidelines. Multiple sectors should be involved in the climate-change vulnerability assessment process to include the full breadth of users and government agencies that might be affected and be part of the EAFM plan in future changing climate conditions. To illustrate, consider the comprehensive list of groups that were involved a vulnerability assessment training workshop hosted by the Office for Climate Change in the Solomon Islands. The workshop was on how to use SimClim, a climate change and adaptation program that uses climate and sea-level rise scenarios to explore the impacts on rainwater, agriculture, and coastal zone impacts. This workshop included representatives from: the Disaster Management Office; Solomon Islands Met Service; Red Cross; Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock; Department of Forestry; Commodities and Export Marketing Authority; Department of Tourism; Ministry of Lands, Housing and Survey; Ministry of Mines, Energy and Rural Electrification; National Council of Women; National Adaptation Program of Action; Ministry of Fisher- ies and Marine Resources; Ministry of Environment, Conservation and Meteorology; and Rural Water and Sanitation. A mix of national and local government representatives should be present, especially in countries where coastal and fisheries management has been devolved and there are traditional customary laws and regulations. There are a number of other vulnerability assessment tools available for fisheries and associated habitats (see www.ebmtools.org). For example, FISHBE (Alino 2007; Licuanan et al. 2006), Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Fisheries Ecosystems (Glick et al. 2011), the Tool for Understanding Resiliency in Fisheries (TURF) (Mamauag et al. 2012), and the Coastal Integrity Vulnerability Assessment Tool (Siringan 2012), the Coastal Assessment Tool and Planning Software (COASTPLAN) (Cabral et al. 2010). For an overview and comparison of the vulnerability assessment approaches for fisheries available see (Johnson and Welch 2010). A database of climate change vulnerability assessment and adaptation tools is available on the Ecosystem Based Management Tools Network (www.ebmtoolsdatabase.org). Incorporating Climate and Ocean Change Into an Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management (EAFM) Plan 29 Section 5 Including considerations of climate and ocean change into an EAFM 5.1 Overview of the EAFM management cycle and its relevance to climate change The following five steps (plus an initial pre-step) make up the EAFM planning process. The purpose of the pre-step is to conduct preparatory activities to get organized and to identify and initially engage with the stakeholders. The pre-step can be thought of as an entry point into the EAFM management cycle and from this point on the management cycle is adaptive. During adaptive management there are three different phases: plan, do, and check and improve. During the “planning phase” (step 1–3) are carried out to develop the EAFM plan. The “doing phase” involves the actual implementation of the plan (step 4). The “checking and improving phase” (step 5) is the cornerstone of adaptive management. Monitoring is performed to assess the consequences of the management actions implemented as part of the plan. This information can then be used to evaluate how close the fisheries management unit is to the management targets specified as part of the plan. The monitoring and evaluation part of step 5 provides an opportunity for informed management decisions that are adapted over time as the evalu- ation of the EAFM plan is communicated with stakeholders and this information is used to revise and update the plan, and so the cycle begins again. PRE-STEP: Start-Up A. Prepare the Ground B. Engage Stakeholders PLAN STEP 1. Define and Scope the Fisheries Management Unit (FMU) STEP 2. Identify and Prioritize Issues and Goals STEP 3. Develop the EAFM Plan DO STEP 4. Implement the EAFM Plan CHECK & IMPROVE STEP 5. Monitor, Evaluate and Adapt 30 Incorporating Climate and Ocean Change Into an Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management (EAFM) Plan An EAFM aims to secure sustainable fisheries by balancing ecological and societal well-being (Curtis et al. 2011). Ecological well-being might refer to changes in species distribution or habitat structure, while soci- etal well-being could refer to employment and food security. An EAFM is not an entirely new management framework, but rather an evolving extension of existing efforts. By design, an EAFM provides a flexible management process, and thus is well suited to managing fisheries in a changing climate, because of the uncertainty over the predicted impacts of climate change and ocean change on marine ecosystems and the associated fisheries. The principles of an EAFM very much compliment what will define fisheries that are resil- ient to the impacts of climate change and ocean change. For example, an EAFM aims to restore ecosystem structure and function, and systems with intact ecological functions are predicted to be better able to absorb, withstand, and recover from changes in environmental conditions (Green and Bellwood 2009). 5.2 How do you include considerations of climate change and ocean change into an EAFM? Outlined below are the five steps in the EAFM planning process which are taken from the accompanying document, Coral Triangle Regional Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management Guidelines. Here, the steps where climate change and ocean change need to be specifically considered are highlighted and discussed. PRE-STEP A. Prepare the ground A1. Identify EAFM team and facilitators – In order to implement an EAFM plan that considers climate change and ocean change, it is first essential to ascertain whether the EAFM team has an appropriate level of climate change expertise and awareness. The team should come from available and interested parties, including representatives of the local, provincial and national government, academe, private sector, environ- ment officers, legislators, village leaders, fishers leaders and women representatives where available. A critical step towards being able to incorporate climate change into fisheries management is an acceptance and understanding that these changes are occurring and will continue to occur. Two key questions will help identify whether the EAFM team is in a position to efficiently develop an EAFM plan that incorporates the effects of climate change and ocean change: Why do we want to develop an EAFM/COC plan that considers climate and ocean change impacts at this time? Are we ready? The EAFM team needs to evaluate whether at that specific time they are in a position to accurately convey the complexity and champion the inclusion of climate and ocean change into the fisheries management plan for their Fisheries Management Unit. A suggested approach to tackling these questions is outlined in Step 1 of the US CTI Support Program (2013) LEAP Guide (see Appendix B). The aim of this activity is for the EAFM team to assess whether they are prepared with the right information and if now is the right time to initiate the development of an EAFM plan that considers climate and ocean change, or alternatively if more activities (such as climate awareness training) need to be carried out to get organized. While no specific technical expertise in climate change and ocean change is required to carry out the basic EAFM planning process, technical assistance will likely be helpful at particular points in the process. External (to the EAFM team and stakeholder group) scientific and technical support will probably be needed to 1) understand the climate projections for the area; 2) select appropriate adaptation strategies for specific issues—for example, how to deal with coastal inundation, fisheries, and habitats impacts and; 3) to improve understanding of socio-ecological vulnerability to climate and ocean change. As such, the EAFM planning team Incorporating Climate and Ocean Change Into an Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management (EAFM) Plan 31 should consult with experts from academia, non-governmental organizations, and/or government as needed. Ideally such expertise should be represented in the Ecosystem Management Advisory Group (see step 1.5) to help assess the feasibility of the evolving EAFM plan and identify the most effective, positive actions for incorporating considerations of climate and ocean change throughout the communities in the Fisheries Man- agement Unit. A2. Develop start-up work plan – In developing the start-up work plan, issues of climate and ocean change should be discussed and considered with the stakeholders at this early stage in order to determine if it is a concern for later action in the EAFM management plan. A3. Identify broad Fisheries Management Unit (FMU) area – In identifying the broad FMU, boundaries are established to include issues of climate and ocean change in the area. A4. EAFM introduction – During the early courtesy calls and meetings, concerns about climate change can be raised and discussed. A5. Coordinate with other ministries/agencies and government levels – The EAFM guidelines outline how important it is to engage early on with the coastal and fisheries institutions at each level of government and to coordinate policies and operational guidelines amongst agencies and institu- tions. The same applies to the EAFM/COC plan, but the addition of climate and ocean change may require the involvement of departments that may have traditionally had only limited interaction or overlap. Cross- sectoral coordination will vary from country by country, but it is essential to identify which groups and sectors may be or should be working towards complementary solutions to issues. For example, the Ministry of the Environment may be responsible for climate change adaptation and

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