Climate Change Adaptation - Lecture Notes PDF

An Overview of Climate Change Adaptation Climate Change Mitigation (BIOS3103 UNUK) (SPR1 22-23) Dalton Baltazar What comes to your mind when you hear the word adaptation? Write one word. To what kind of situations do you adapt to? The start of climate change adaptation • United Nations Framew...

An Overview of Climate Change Adaptation Climate Change Mitigation (BIOS3103 UNUK) (SPR1 22-23) Dalton Baltazar What comes to your mind when you hear the word adaptation? Write one word. To what kind of situations do you adapt to? The start of climate change adaptation • United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) of 1992 called on nations to enact measures to “facilitate adequate adaptation” • climate change adaptation literature started to take form • Adaptation research was driven by vulnerability and impacts research • Shifted focus to identifying ways that vulnerable populations could adapt to future changes in climate • Literature have concentrated on whether societies are, in fact, adapting rapidly enough to climate change and how effective their actions are likely to be Reference for slides 2 – 34: Dickinson, T. and Burton, I. (2021). Adaptation to Climate Change. Lectures in Climate Change, pp.637–671. doi:https://doi.org/10.1142/9789811238222_0027. https://tspace.library.utoronto.ca/bitstream/1807/96238/1/Dickinson_Thea_L_201906_PhD_thesis.pdf Evolution of adaptation conversations • Emissions - mentioned in the Convention 23 times • Adaptation - 6 mentions • Possible reason? - Negotiations for the Convention followed the success of the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer and the Resolution of the Regional Acid Rain problem in Europe and North America • Parties assumed that a reduction in GHGs would be enough to control this new ‘pollution problem’ (i.e., climate change and global warming) Evolution of adaptation conversations 2009 Why a mitigation agenda alone is insufficient: • Climate change is not a future event, impacts are already occurring • Despite advances in alternative energy, we continue to live in a fossil-fuel dominated society • Removal of all the human-emitted CO2 from the atmosphere by natural processes will take a few hundred thousand years • Even with a full cessation of greenhouse gas emissions, upwards of 20% of CO2 already present will continue to remain in the atmosphere for thousands of years • Temperatures will therefore continue to rise, and thermal expansion of the oceans will continue to occur long after the last greenhouse gases are emitted Why a mitigation agenda alone is insufficient: • Current national level emission reductions are not on track to meet a +2oC target, with +1.5oC having less likelihood of being achieved • 2010 - 16th UNFCCC Conference of the Parties met in Cancun, Mexico • “Adaptation must be addressed with the same priority as mitigation” Climate Change Adaptation in the 1992 UNFCCC • Article 3.3 states, “The Parties should take precautionary measures to anticipate, prevent or minimize the causes of climate change” and “lack of full scientific certainty should not be used as a reason for postponing such measures… as … adaptation…”. Climate Change Adaptation in the 1992 UNFCCC • Article 4.1(b) states that all parties to the Convention are to “formulate, implement, publish and regularly update national and, where appropriate, regional programmes containing measures to … facilitate adequate adaptation to climate change”. • signals the 195 parties to the Convention to develop national and regional programmes • does not specify only “developing nations”, but all parties • refers to “adequate adaptation” - undefined Climate Change Adaptation in the 1992 UNFCCC • Article 4.1(e) states that All Parties shall, “Cooperate in preparing for adaptation to the impacts of climate change; develop and elaborate appropriate and integrated plans…particularly in Africa”. Climate Change Adaptation in the 1992 UNFCCC • Article 4.1(f) continues by stating that All Parties shall, “Take climate change considerations into account, to the extent feasible, in their relevant social, economic and environmental policies … to minimiz[e] adverse effects on the economy, on public health and on the quality of the environment, of projects or measures undertaken by them to mitigate or adapt to climate change” … • parties are to take climate change into account where it is “feasible” and “relevant”, while maintaining that they are to minimize economic, health, and environmental impacts Climate Change Adaptation in the 1992 UNFCCC • Article 4.4 of the Convention states that, “The developed country Parties … shall also assist the developing country Parties that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change in meeting costs of adaptation to those adverse effects”. Inclusion of Adaptation in the IPCC Reports Inclusion of Adaptation in the IPCC Reports Inclusion of Adaptation in the IPCC Reports Current definition of adaptation • Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities Third Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report (IPCC, 2007) • The process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and its effects. In human systems, adaptation seeks to moderate or avoid harm or exploit beneficial opportunities. In some natural systems, human intervention may facilitate adjustment to expected climate and its effects. 2014, the IPCC updated the UNFCCC’S definition Evolution of the range of adaptation options New typologies of adaptation • Incremental, transitional and transformational • Incremental measure - adaptation processes [that] operate to maintain a system within its current state • 2014 IPCC report - actions where the central aim is to maintain the essence and integrity of a system or process at a given scale • Horrocks and colleagues (2011) - decision-maker[s] to continue to meet [their] current objectives under changed [climatic] conditions • changing crops to maintain current farming practices New typologies of adaptation • Transitional adaptation - intermediary stage: adaptation measures attempt to cause a shift in these ‘incremental processes’, transitioning adaptation into a new state • Transformational – most drastic: radically new endeavour, no longer seeking to maintain the status quo • • • • Kates and colleagues (2012) - categories of transformational adaptation: Enlarged scale or intensity, New or novel adaptations, and Different places and locations New typologies of adaptation • IPCC definition of transformational adaptation: • Changes [to] the fundamental attributes of a system in response to climate and its effects” (IPCC, 2014) • Thames Estuary 2100 Plan in the United Kingdom • Use of genetically modified crops representing a novel transformational measure • Forced migration of residents on Carteret Islands in Papua New Guinea to Bougainville as transformational relocation Ideal characteristics of adaptation • Be complementary to mitigation (both adaptation and mitigation; not either/or) • Decrease vulnerability • Seek to avoid maladaptation (maladaptation may cause increase in conflict, emissions, and vulnerability) • Promote innovation and take advantage of beneficial opportunities • Be inherently interdisciplinary Ideal characteristics of adaptation • Take climate change into account • Be proactive • Agree with the 17 goals of sustainable development for 2030 • Maintain or increase quality of life • Maintain or increase standard of living • Apply cultural and conflict sensitive approaches • Consider not only primary and secondary impacts, but also interconnected and cascading impacts Climate Change Adaptation in Peer Reviewed Literature Third Report (TAR) in 2001 UNFCCC in 1992 • Adaptation and climate change in keywords, abstracts or titles in Scopus Database yields 20,499 documents for the years 1987 to 2017 • Third Report (TAR) in 2001 WGII’s title was updated to Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability • AR5 was also notable for containing the highest level of text dedicated to adaptation Challenges in adaptation research • Adaptation does not have a single metric like mitigation • Adaptation takes place in (i) every sector, (ii) for every impact, and (iii) in every geographic region of the world • Adaptation is messy and complex because society is messy and complex • Experts and researchers speculate that the rise of adaptation is linked to a nation’s wealth, government system, geographic location, funding availability Financing for Climate Change Adaptation • Missing from adaptation – finance • Three key components in the climate finance discussion: • estimating the damages from climate change; • the cost of adapting to climate change; and • how adaptation will be financed. from EM-DAT, The International Disaster Database Costing Climate Change Adaptation • Stern Review (2007) - cited the cost of climate change to be 5-20% of GDP per year indefinitely • UNFCCC (2007) reported that $49-171 billion per year by 2030 would be needed to adapt to climate change, and of this, $27-66 billion would be for developing countries • World Bank (2010) – 2oC warmer world would cost $70-100 billion per year by 2050 • UNEP (2016) - costs of adaptation are likely to be two-to-three times higher than current global estimates by 2030 • potentially four-to-five times higher by 2050 Funding Climate Change Adaptation • Article 4.4 of the Convention - rarely cited funding in the literature or the negotiations • Recent debate - developed countries assisting developing countries in “meeting costs” of climate change adaptation • Developing countries - arguing for climate justice • decreasing the uneven burden shared by developing nations at the hands of the highemitting developed nations • done less to cause the impacts that they are enduring from a changed climate • obligation is on developed countries to provide funding for adaptation Funding Climate Change Adaptation • Article 9.1 of the Agreement • “Developed country Parties [to] provide financial resources to assist developing country Parties with respect to both mitigation and adaptation”. • financial resources should aim to achieve a balance between adaptation and mitigation • UNEP (2016) - current funding levels fall short of both the high climate finance goal and the balance between mitigation and adaptation Break Concepts, frameworks and methodologies for vulnerability and adaptation assessments https://www.uncclearn.org/wp-content/uploads/library/unitar19.pdf Vulnerability • Natural hazards domain - it refers to the degree to which a unit is likely to suffer in response to a disturbance and the capacity (or lack thereof) the unit has to deal with the disturbance (either by returning to its original state, arrive at a new state of equilibrium or perish) • Development and poverty-oriented lit - places emphasis on the current social, economic, political conditions, namely measuring global human wellbeing in a manner that incorporates exposure to potentially harmful social, economic, environmental or political events Vulnerability • The IPCC’s definition of vulnerability is solely in relation to climate change: • The degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. • Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity. Vulnerability • Vulnerability can be considered as a function of risk, danger levels, level of exposure or adaptive responses available. • Bio-physical Vulnerability – focuses on the ecological processes related to vulnerability, namely the susceptibility and exposure to environmental changes • indicators: rainfall, cyclones, wet/dry season, risk of flooding • Social Vulnerability – focuses on the political, socio-economic, cultural and institutional aspects of vulnerability • indicators: education levels, income, poverty rate, social capital, extent of livelihood diversification, land Vulnerability • Current vulnerability (based on present climate variability): allows one to assess the known risks and implement measures to reduce or manage those risks. • Future vulnerability (based on climatic changes): allows one to assess the potential and known risks with the goal of estimating the level of danger and identifying the appropriate adaptation measures. Resilience and stability • Ecological resilience: Degree to which perturbations can be absorbed by the system before it changes from one state to another. • Stability: function of the tendency of a system to return to its original equilibrium after a perturbation • Social resilience: Capacity of groups or communities to adapt to, or learning to handle, stresses and external political, social, economic or environmental perturbations Adaptation and adaptive capacity • Adaptation - changes in procedures, practices and structures with a view to limiting or eliminating the potential damage from or capitalizing on the opportunities created by climate variability and change. • Adaptive capacity - ability of a system, community or individual to adapt to climate change impacts (including climate variability) • depends on the economic, social and human resources of the entity Vulnerability and adaptation assessment • Description: Physiology (i.e. functions, dynamics, synergies) of the changes in the environment or society. • Objective: Determine the risk of adverse effects on units, groups or regions exposed to these perturbations or stresses and identify factors that augment/diminish adaptive capacity. • Output: Analysis of specific effects caused by a number of factors. • Use: Strategic policy councils, decision-making processes, and defining adaptation measures. Vulnerability and adaptation assessment • Vulnerability = Risk (Danger x Exposure) +/- Adaptation (Responses / Options) • Risk = Probability of a given danger occurring • Danger = Current or potential threats to humans and their well-being, and ecosystems and their services • Exposure = Susceptibility to loss • Adaptation = Capacity of a system to adjust to new or changing conditions in its environment • Responses = The mechanisms used or actions taken in response to current and future adverse effects • Options = Different possible response measures to the changes Framework and method selection Framework and method selection Framework and method selection Model and methodology selection In general, to identify adaptation options, one must: • Be conscious of the appropriate methods and tools • Ensure that all stakeholders participate in the process and that their views are taken into consideration • Highlight the importance of resolving urgent problems • Keep the objective of identifying possible adaptation options at the forefront at all times • Ensure that the information used is on the appropriate timescale and meets the needs of decision-makers • Pay attention to how models, scenarios and results are used Model and methodology selection • The objective of vulnerability and adaptation assessments is to produce relevant information so as to diminish uncertainty, increase awareness amongst stakeholders and monitor adaptation strategies. • The assessments should assist in diminishing the gap that exists between the scientific community, decision-makers and the general population. Adaptation learning cycle https://www.weadapt.org/knowledge-base/adaptation-decision-making/proviaguidance-on-assessing-vulnerability-impacts-and-adaptation-to-climate-change Adaptation learning cycle • Identifying adaptation needs: What impacts may be expected under climate change? What are actors’ vulnerabilities and capacities? What major decisions need to be addressed? • Identifying adaptation options: How can the specific risks and opportunities that were identified be addressed? • There may be several options available to achieve the desired goals. • Appraising adaptation options: What are the pros and cons of the different options, and which best fit the adaptation actors’ objectives? Adaptation learning cycle • Planning and implementing adaptation actions: After an option is chosen, implementation can begin. • Focus on practical issues, such as planning, assigning responsibilities, setting up institutional frameworks, and taking action. • Monitoring and evaluation of adaptation. As measures are implemented, the process is monitored and evaluated to ensure it goes as planned, identify any problems, document the outcomes achieved, change course as needed, and draw lessons from the experience. Adaptation learning cycle • • • • • • • • • • • Participation and engagement Impact analysis Capacity analysis Scenario analysis Behavioural analysis Institutional analysis Formal decision-making Valuation methods Tools for adaptation planning and implementation Methods for monitoring and evaluating adaptation Tools for learning and reflection https://www.weadapt.org/sites/weadapt.org/files/legacynew/knowledge-base/files/5286589fcd57eprovia-guidancenov2013-summary-low-res.pdf Review of adaptation decision tools https://www.weadapt.org/knowledge-base/adaptationdecision-making/adaptation-tools-review Break Strategies for Climate Change Adaptation - US https://www.epa.gov/arc-x/strategies-climate-change-adaptation Outdoor Air Voluntary Transportation Tips • Reduce vehicle emissions by encouraging smart growth development. • Choose a cleaner commute — carpool, use public transportation, bike or walk when possible. • Combine errands to reduce "cold starts" of your car and avoid extended idling. • Keep car, boat and other engines properly tuned, and avoid engines that smoke. • Follow gasoline refueling instructions for efficient vapor recovery. Be careful not to spill fuel and always tighten your gas cap securely. https://www.epa.gov/arc-x/outdoor-and-indoor-air-adaptation-strategies-climate-change#tab-1 Indoor Air Weatherization & Ventilation • It is essential to maintain proper ventilation to maintain healthy indoor environments. Proper ventilation is essential for moisture control and to dilute pollutants generated indoors. • Weatherization or retrofitting may include: • • • • installing storm windows weather stripping caulking insulating your home • It should also include an assessment of the ventilation required, and adjustment to the ventilation if needed, to accommodate weatherization changes in the home. https://www.epa.gov/arc-x/outdoor-and-indoor-air-adaptation-strategies-climate-change#tab-1 US – Case studies https://www.epa.gov/arc-x/searchable-casestudies-climate-change-adaptation Strategies for Climate Change Adaptation - UK https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/s ystem/uploads/attachment_data/file/885242/moj-climatechange-adaptation.pdf - 2020 Strategies for Climate Change Adaptation - UK Strategies for Climate Change Adaptation - UK The UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017 (CCRA2) - 56 risks • impact of heatwaves and overheating on buildings (and cold winter extremes) • risks to health, well-being and productivity from high temperatures • increasing likelihood of flooding events - service disruptions and communities • water shortages • food supply and agriculture production and trade disruption • infrastructure malfunction and unavailability • impact on natural capital and ecosystems • some international risks, such as climate-related human displacement, or weatherrelated shocks to the global food supply chain UK – Case studies US – Case studies US – Case studies US – Case studies Strategies for Climate Change Adaptation - EU https://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/en/eu-adaptationpolicy/strategy/index_html Strategies for Climate Change Adaptation - EU • Adaptation options can be aimed at: • Accepting the impacts, and bearing the losses that result from risks (e.g. managing retreat from sea level rise) • Off-setting losses by sharing or spreading risks (e.g. through insurance) • Avoiding or reducing exposure to climate risks (e.g. building new flood defences, or changing location or activity) • Exploiting new opportunities (e.g. engaging in a new activity, or changing practices to take advantage of changing climatic conditions). EU – Case studies • Climate-ADAPT Case study explorer https://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/en/knowledge/tools/case-study-explorer EU – Case studies https://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/en/about/climate-adapt10-case-studies-online.pdf Strategies for Climate Change Adaptation – Developing countries What are common adaptation priorities? • Agriculture under pressure • Protecting freshwater supplies • Climate impacts on health • Risks posed to the energy sector • Fisheries and local livelihoods https://www.iisd.org/articles/adapting-to-climate-change Strategies for Climate Change Adaptation – Developing countries • Kenya - passed a Climate Change Bill, has in place a National Climate Change Strategy and National Climate Change Action Plan, and has prepared a draft national climate change framework policy and a draft climate finance policy. • Bangladesh has prepared a climate change strategy and action plan, with funding earmarked for their implementation. • Climate Change Trust Fund • Bangladesh Climate Change Resilience Fund financed by donors • river bank protection, afforestation and disaster management https://www.iisd.org/articles/adapting-to-climate-change Strategies for Climate Change Adaptation – Developing countries • Burkina Faso published a National Adaptation Programme of Action in 2007 and released its National Adaptation Plan in 2015. • National Council for the Environment and Sustainable Development • lacks the capacity and financing required to implement its adaptation plans. https://www.iisd.org/articles/adapting-to-climate-change Developing countries – Case studies University of Notre Dame’s Global Adaptation Index (ND-GAIN) https://gain.nd.edu/assets/254377/nd_gain_technical_document_2015.pdf Developing countries – Case studies https://gain.nd.edu/assets/254377/nd_gain_technical_document_2015.pdf Urban nature-based solutions https://una.city/ End