2023 05 Conventional arms control.pdf

Arms Control Conventional arms control Professor Andrei Zagorski 5 .4 .20 23 Conventional arms control  Definitions  Conventional arms control subject areas  Overview of conventional arms control instruments and regimes  Conventional arms control in Europe ◼ The CFE, the ACFE and the fai...

Arms Control Conventional arms control Professor Andrei Zagorski 5 .4 .20 23 Conventional arms control  Definitions  Conventional arms control subject areas  Overview of conventional arms control instruments and regimes  Conventional arms control in Europe ◼ The CFE, the ACFE and the failure of the CFE regime  The Steinmeier initiative Zagorski, 5 April 2023 2 Conventional arms control: definitions  conventional weapons include a diverse range of weapons, more easily defined by what they are not than what they are  they are commonly understood to include devices capable of killing, incapacitating or injuring mainly through explosives, kinetic energy or incendiaries  they include, but are not limited to, ◼ armored combat vehicles (personnel carriers and tanks, for example) ◼ combat helicopters ◼ combat aircraft ◼ Warships ◼ small arms and light weapons ◼ landmines ◼ cluster munitions ◼ ammunition and artillery Gillis 2017, p. 71 Zagorski, 5 April 2023 3 Conventional arms control subject areas  control of armed forces  arms transfers and trade  inhuman weapons  small arms and light weapons  landmines  cluster munitions Zagorski, 5 April 2023 4 Conventional arms control instruments and regimes  The Arms Trade Treaty  The UN Register of Conventional Arms  Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons  Small Arms and Light Weapons  Landmines  Cluster munitions Zagorski, 5 April 2023 5 The Arms Trade Treaty  approved by the UN GA in 2013, in force since December 2014  it established common international standards to guide governments in deciding whether or not to authorize arms transfers  the treaty regulates the international trade in almost all categories of conventional weapons from small arms to battle tanks, combat aircraft and warships  as of 2022, the treaty had 110 states parties ◼ 31 have signed but not yet ratified ◼ 51 have not yet signed  among major arms exporters, the West European countries have ratified the treaty, the US has signed but not ratified it, Russia and China have neither signed nor acceded to it Zagorski, 5 April 2023 6 The Arms Trade Treaty  the treaty establishes circumstances under which arms can never be transferred ◼ if such a transfer could violate UN SC arms embargoes or ◼ be used to commit acts of genocide, crimes against humanity or war crimes ◼ states must deny an export if there is an “overriding risk” that weapons may be used to negatively impact peace and security, undermine international humanitarian and human rights law, or facilitate terrorism, organized crime or gender -based violence  a primary goal of the treaty is to promote transparency in global arms transfers ◼ states parties must report on their regulatory systems and their actual imports and exports of weapons ◼ they are encouraged to take measures to prevent the diversion of arms to the illicit market Zagorski, 5 April 2023 7 The UN Register of Conventional Arms  created in 1991: an annual reporting mechanism on quantities and types of arms transferred  it covers the export and import of seven categories of major conventional arms: ◼ battle tanks ◼ armored combat vehicles ◼ large -calibre artillery systems ◼ combat aircraft ◼ attack helicopters ◼ warships ◼ missiles and missile launchers  additionally, states can report on the import and export of small arms and light weapons, as well as military holdings, procurement through national production, and relevant policies and national legislation Zagorski, 5 April 2023 8 Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons (CCW)  full title: The Convention on Prohibitions or Restrictions on the Use of Certain Conventional Weapons Which May Be Deemed to Be Excessively Injurious or to Have Indiscriminate Effects  in force since 1983  as of 2022 125 states parties  the CCW bans or restricts the use of specific types of weapons considered to cause unnecessary or unjustifiable suffering to combatants or to affect civilians indiscriminately Zagorski, 5 April 2023 9 Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons (CCW)  the Convention contains only general provisions, specific prohibitions and restrictions are contained in a series of annexed protocols ◼ Protocol on Non -Detectable Fragments prohibits the use of any weapon designed to injure by fragments that are undetectable in the human body by X -ray ◼ Protocol on Prohibitions or Restrictions on the Use of Mines, Booby - Traps and Other Devices as amended prohibits the indiscriminate use of landmines and anti -personnel mines ◼ Protocol on Prohibitions or Restrictions on the Use of Incendiary Weapons bans the use of such weapons against civilians and their air delivery against military installations located within civilian concentrations ◼ Protocol on Blinding Laser Weapons prohibits the use of laser weapons specifically designed to cause permanent blindness to the naked eye ◼ Protocol on Explosive Remnants of War Zagorski, 5 April 2023 10 Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons (CCW)  in 2001, the Convention was amended so that it applies not only to inter -state conflicts but also to internal armed conflict  flexibility:  the CCW provides the possibility to address new emerging issues by negotiating further protocols  in particular, it launched a process of addressing the issue of emerging technologies in the area of lethal autonomous weapons systems Zagorski, 5 April 2023 11 Small Arms and Light Weapons (SALW)  small arms are weapons designed for individual use, such as revolvers, pistols, rifles and machine guns  light weapons are designed for use by two or three persons serving as a crew  in 2001, under the Convention against Transnational Organized Crime, the UN adopted a Firearms Protocol committing the Governments to ◼ a licensing system relating to manufacture and trade ◼ the establishment of criminal offences on illegal manufacture and trade and ◼ provisions on the marking and tracing of firearms. Zagorski, 5 April 2023 12 Small Arms and Light Weapons  on the broader topic of small arms and light weapons, countries agreed in 2001 on a Programme of Action focusing on preventing the illicit trade in SALW  the politically binding instrument encourages UN members to adopt measures at the national, regional and global levels to prevent, combat and eradicate the illicit trade in SALW  it contains concrete suggestions for improved national legislation and controls, and international assistance and cooperation  various measures are taken at the regional level Zagorski, 5 April 2023 13 Landmines  Convention on the Prohibition of the Use, Stockpiling, Production and Transfer of Anti -Personnel Mines and on Their Destruction  opened for signature in 1997, in force since 1999  as of 2022, 164 states parties  a number of key states remain outside the Convention, including China, DPRK, Egypt, India, Israel, Pakistan, ROK, Russia and the US  the treaty bans the use, production, stockpiling and transfer of anti - personnel landmines Zagorski, 5 April 2023 14 Landmines  parties to the Convention undertake to destroy existing stockpiles of anti -personnel landmines as soon as possible, but no later than four years after the Convention becomes binding for them, and to destroy all anti -personnel mines laid in the ground within 10 years  the Convention has been instrumental in virtually halting the global trade in anti -personnel landmines and developing the concept and practice of victim assistance , and has broad influence even among States that have not yet ratified it Zagorski, 5 April 2023 15 Cluster munitions  a cluster munition is a container that holds a number of sub - munitions, ranging from a few to several hundred  the Convention on Cluster Munitions was opened for signature in 2008 and entered into force in 2010  as of 2022, 110 states parties (further 13 have signed but not yet ratified) ◼ several major military powers that stockpile the overwhelming majority of cluster munitions are not parties ◼ in particular Brazil, China, India, Israel, Pakistan, Russia and the US  the Convention outlaws the use, development, stockpiling, production, acquisition, retention and transfer, of nearly all cluster munitions Zagorski, 5 April 2023 16 Conventional arms control in Europe Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE)  signed 1990 by NATO and Warsaw Pact member states, entered into force in 1982  did not allow for accession by third states  eight Soviet successor states became parties to the treaty in 1982  the three Baltic states remained outside the treaty Zagorski, 5 April 2023 17 Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE)  the CFE was adapted in 1999 in order to take into account the consequences of the beginning enlargement of NATO  the signing of the ACFE was conditioned on the signing of the “Istanbul commitments” (Russian troop withdrawal from Georgia and Moldova)  the ACFE ratification was conditioned by the implementation of the “Istanbul commitments”  the ACFE never entered into force  after the Russian suspension of the CFE in 2007, two attempts to revive the regime (2008 and 2010 – 2011) failed to arrest the degradation of he regime Zagorski, 5 April 2023 18 The purpose of the treaty  establishing a secure and stable balance of conventional armed forces in Europe at lower levels than heretofore  eliminating disparities prejudicial to stability and security and  eliminating , as a matter of high priority, the capability for launching surprise attack and for initiating large -scale offensive action in Europe CFE Preamble Zagorski, 5 April 2023 19 CFE area of application  the entire land territory of the states parties in Europe from the Atlantic Ocean to the Ural Mountains including all the European island territories of the states parties  in the case of the USSR, the area of application included all territory lying west of the Ural River and the Caspian Sea  the southern part of Turkey was also excluded from the area of application Zagorski, 5 April 2023 20 CFE treaty limited equipment (TLE)  5 categories : ◼ battle tanks ◼ armored combat vehicles (ACV) ◼ artillery systems ◼ combat aircraft ◼ attack helicopters  complemented by individual personnel strength limits in 1992  naval forces were not included into the TLE Zagorski, 5 April 2023 21 Treaty provisions  individual and collective numerical limits for two groups of states on the 5 categories of the TLE  self -declared limits on the personnel strength of armed forces  geographical limitations , particularly by establishing of two flank zones in the North and in the south of the area of application  annual information exchange  intrusive verification , including on -site inspections and assessment visits Zagorski, 5 April 2023 22 Zagorski, 5 April 2023 23 An extremely successful treaty  unprecedentedly deep disarmament : by the end of the 1990 s over 70 ,000 TLE units reduced and destroyed  the total number of TLE in Europe more than halved  reductions continued thereafter  verification induced transparency facilitated the reduction of armed forces and TLE in Europe far below the CFE limits  the treaty “has helped to overcome without shocks epochal changes in the military -political landscape in Europe” (Putin, 19 January 200 0) Zagorski, 5 April 2023 24 TLE holdings by NATO members in Europe (1990 CFE ceilings for NATO 16 = 100% ) calculated from the SIPRI database on conventional forces in Europe 25 TLE holdings by Russia in Europe (1990 CFE ceilings = 100% ) calculated from the SIPRI database on conventional forces in Europe 26 TLE holdings by Russia and NATO members in 2007 (% of 1999 ACFE ceilings ; for NATO: ACFE ceilings for 16 old members) calculated from the SIPRI database on conventional forces in Europe 27 The 1999 ACFE  no collective, only individual (national and territorial ) limits  in most cases, these limits were identic  Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and the Czech Republic voluntarily ready to reduce their limits below ACFE and not to increase them  ACFE : an “open” treaty allowing accession of third parties  the disengagement logic implicit in the Russia – NATO Founding act and the ACFE ◼ Russia accepted that, collectively, NATO would have more assets ◼ de facto those assets don’t exceed the ‘old NATO’ ceilings ◼ those assets would be stationed away from Russian borders (geographic restraint) Zagorski, 5 April 2023 28 1997 NATO – Russia Founding Act  The member States of NATO […] have no intention, no plan and no reason to deploy nuclear weapons on the territory of new members […] NATO […] has no intention, no plan, and no reason to establish nuclear weapon storage sites on the territory of those members, whether through the construction of new nuclear storage facilities or the adaptation of old nuclear storage facilities. Zagorski, 5 April 2023 29 1997 NATO – Russia Founding Act  […] in the current and foreseeable security environment, the Alliance will carry out its collective defence and other missions by ensuring the necessary interoperability, integration, and capability for reinforcement rather than by additional permanent stationing of substantial combat forces . Accordingly, it will have to rely on adequate infrastructure commensurate with the above tasks. In this context, reinforcement may take place, when necessary, in the event of defence against a threat of aggression and missions in support of peace […] as well as for exercises consistent with the adapted CFE Treaty, the provisions of the Vienna Document 1994 and mutually agreed transparency measures. Zagorski, 5 April 2023 30 1997 NATO – Russia Founding Act  Russia will exercise similar restraint in its conventional force deployments in Europe Zagorski, 5 April 2023 31 The Steinmeier initiative  in 2016, the then German Foreign Minister Steinmeier initiated discussions on relaunching conventional arms control (CAC) in Europe  his proposal anticipating addressing five areas: ◼ defining regional ceilings , minimum distances and transparency measures ( especially in militarily sensitive regions such as the Baltic ) ◼ taking into account new military capabilities and strategies (smaller, mobile units rather than traditional, large armies; accordingly taking resources such as transport capabilities into consideration) ◼ integrating new weapons systems (e.g. drones) ◼ permitting effective verification that is rapidly deployable, flexible and independent in times of crisis (e.g. carried out by the OSCE) ◼ applying in areas whose territorial status is disputed  this initiative was followed by launching, within the OSCE, of a “structured dialogue” Zagorski, 5 April 2023 32