Risk and Opportunity in the Outer Operating Environment ESTB01 Past Paper 2024 PDF

Risk\Opportunity in the Outer Operating Environment ESTBO1 2024 – ENVIRONMENTAL AGENCY JIMacLellan -- ESTB01H3F (Copyright 2015, 2016, 2017) 52  MacLellan and Mitchell 2016 How do we ‘know’ this outer operating env...

Risk\Opportunity in the Outer Operating Environment ESTBO1 2024 – ENVIRONMENTAL AGENCY JIMacLellan -- ESTB01H3F (Copyright 2015, 2016, 2017) 52  MacLellan and Mitchell 2016 How do we ‘know’ this outer operating environment..? MACLELLAN 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019  MacLellan and Mitchell 2016 We ‘know’ the outer operating environment through … scientific means & processes’. The colored spheres (non-blue) represents different domains of knowledge. In academia these are disciplines. MACLELLAN 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019  MacLellan and Mitchell 2016 Instead of a reactive stance, we seek a proactive stance towards risk & response. The idea is to The colored spheres (non-blue) use ‘knowledge’ represents different domains of to anticipate and knowledge. In academia these are disciplines. manage risk. MACLELLAN 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019  The premise of this course is that we can create a scaffolding for these various knowledge domains, as a first step towards the anticipation of risk. The colored spheres (non-blue) represents different domains of knowledge. In academia these are disciplines. JIMacLellan -- ESTB01H3F (Copyright 2015, 2016, 2017, 56 2018) What’s important? JIMacLellan -- ESTB01H3F (Copyright 2015, 2016, 2017, 57 2018) LIFE MAPPING POSSIBILITIES If we are concerned with environmental agency in the form of risk avoidance, we face a fundamental dilemma: – We can wait and see how the environment changes, and then respond (e.g. response to economic externalities after they happen) … OR – We can MAP the realm of possibilities to anticipate the hazards and risks to ourselves, our families and our communities. The absolute minimum is that we understand the conditions for LIFE. And as we saw in Lecture 7, understanding LIFE is not trivial. – If we choose to MAP the foundations of environmental risk, we cannot avoid one of the most critical variables in the equation, human behavior. 1. Because humans are a large source of environmental risk. 2. And because a model of human behavior is essential if we are to effectively respond to risk. JIMacLellan -- ESTB01H3F (Copyright 2015, 2016, 2017, 59 2018, 2024)  RISK JIMacLellan -- ESTB01H3F (Copyright 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018) 60  Existential Risks (Bostrom 2001) Bangs – Nuclear holocaust What are – Deliberate misuse of nanotechnology most of these – We’re living in a simulation and it gets shut down risks – Badly programmed super-intelligence – Genetically engineered biological agent associated – Accidental misuse of biotechnology with? – Something unforeseen – Physics disasters – Asteroid or comet impact – Runaway global warming (feedbacks) JIMacLellan -- ESTB01H3F (Copyright 2015, 2016, 2017, 61 2018) Most frightening of all … Human culpability has apparently plagued us from our earliest beginnings … The Epic of Atrahasis Tigay, Jeffrey H. (1982), The Evolution of the Gilgamesh Epic, University of Pennsylvania Press, Philadelphia, ISBN 0-8122-7805-4 JIMacLellan -- ESTB01H3F (Copyright 2015, 2016, 2017, 62 2018)  MacLellan and Mitchell 2016 MACLELLAN 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 How is our relationship with the outer operating environment framed? By definition we have no control over it, but that doesn’t mean we are indifferent. Typically we see this outer environment as a place of opportunity and a place of risk.  MacLellan and Mitchell 2016 Opportunities exist in the outer operating environment. MACLELLAN 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019  MacLellan and Mitchell 2016 Opportunities exist in the outer operating environment. The Cedar Forest in the Gilgamesh Epic. MACLELLAN 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019  MacLellan and Mitchell 2016 But RISKS exist as well. In the Epic, we are never completely certain that the risks of the Forest Journey were worth the glory. Should they have made a deal with Humbaba? MACLELLAN 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019  MacLellan and Mitchell 2016 The simple act of harvesting a forest had many unforeseen, and interacting consequences. These are externalities. MACLELLAN 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019  MacLellan and Mitchell 2016 In the mid 20th Century our impacts began to accelerate, at the beginning of the Crawfordian era. Arguably, we could say that ancient impacts were localized … but we are starting to understand that was not the case … (e.g. mega fauna extinctions) MACLELLAN 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019  MacLellan and Mitchell 2016 Our technocentric bias towards environmental OPPORTUNITY, seems to overwhelm our ecocentric aversion to environmental RISK. Fossil Fuels MACLELLAN 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019  MacLellan and Mitchell 2016 A spider’s web Fossil Fuels → of Externalities Climate Change MACLELLAN 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019  MacLellan and Mitchell 2016 Put another way, we are trying to build a science of spider’s webs, so that we can anticipate impacts from our actions, particularly those associated with economic behavior. A spider’s web of Externalities MACLELLAN 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019