Project Management PDF

Project Management Dries Vandevyvere (Proj3ctS BV) KU Leuven © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Introduction - Dries Vandevyvere Engineer / IT / Project & program Management / Business Mentor Consulting - Product - Project - Program - IT management Accenture - Itineris - Ablynx - Ambits - Proj3ctS - Galapagos - ECS Chemicals / Utilities / Natural resources / Bio-Pharma / Supply Chain Passionate about travelling & outdoor activities with my wife & 2 girls © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Introduction - Course Content Main objectives Help you understand what a project is & why it matters for an engineer Give you the basic understanding of how project management is done Introduce the new trends and future of project management: Agile & Hybrid Provide you with tools, techniques, frameworks and guidance to get started on a project or work in a project team Give hints & tips based on experience and provide you with practical advise Analyse and solve problems in a project-based approach Collaboration & teamwork in a project context Course material These slides Background materials: articles, blog posts and/or references Exercises & quiz questions Lexicon © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Introduction - Course Content Part 1: Intro, stakeholders, change & scope management What is a project? How does project management work? Why does it matter? Stakeholder management + change + communication + team motivation How to define and manage the scope of the project Part 2: Estimating, scheduling & resources Reliable project estimates Project Scheduling done right Optimize resource scheduling Part 3: Risks, progress & Agile Project Risk Management Tracking progress and keeping your project on track + Earned value management Project management in an Agile world Hybrid project management: the best of both worlds © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Introduction - Exam Closed book 2 types of questions Open questions Multiple choice Focus on Understanding of the core concepts Application in real-life situations Connection between the topics across the PM knowledge areas © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Agenda - Covered in these slides Introduction What is a project? How does project management work? Why does it matter? Stakeholder management Change management + communication Team motivation Scope management How to define scope How to manage Wrap-up + Q&A © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 What is a project ? Temporary Unique Product, service or result Complex and X-functional Goals and objectives Beneficial change or added value Plan © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Is this a project? This is a Project © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Is this a project? Not a Project © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 What is a project ? “ A project is a temporary endeavor designed to produce a unique product, service or result with a defined beginning and end (usually time-constrained, and often constrained by funding or staffing) undertaken to meet unique goals and objectives, typically to bring about beneficial change or added value… that we agreed to deliver based on a plan. ” © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 This is a Not a Project Project © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 History of Project Management Pyramids First signs of project management -2020 -208 Great Chinese Wall Clear objective Resource Management Phasing Never finished No documentation Many sponsors No stakeholder engagement © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 History of Project Management Cold Control VUCA Maximise control on the PM process -> first PM Scrum & PmBok standards arise: Waterfall ‘30 ‘60 ‘69 ‘86 ‘87 Now VUCA Crazy Creativity Volatility – Uncertainty – Complexity - Ambiguous Project Management more as an art to overcome engineering problems -> CPM, PERT, Gantt © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Project Management Methods Kanban PMBoK XP Classic Prince2 Hybrid SCRUM Agile Waterfall – Plan Based Iterative – Value Based Waterscrumfall Prism SCRUMBAN CCPM LEAN © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 PM Methods overview Classic Plan (waterfall) Analyze Build Test Launch Agile (Scrum) Sprint 1 Sprint 2 Launch Sprint 3 Sprint N Launch © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Classic Project Management Classic Plan (waterfall) Analyze Build Test Launch Agile Project Management Agile (Scrum) Sprint 1 Sprint 2 Sprint 3 Sprint N Launch © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 The triple constraint / Iron triangle © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 What is Project Management ? Project “Project management is the Management application of processes, methods, tools, skills, knowledge and experience to achieve specific project objectives.“ © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 What does a project manager do? s Organize chaos Set Goals Conduct Lessons learned Control Integrate & Manage collaborate Stakeholders Quality Manage Cost / Communicate Use Tools Plan Manage Risk Resources © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Who is the project manager? SUCCESS © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 The Project Management Process Project Project Project Preparation Execution Closure Business Idea -> Business requirements Documented in a Project Charter Project Charter = approval to start the project (preparation) © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 The Project Management Process Project Project Project Preparation Execution Closure The final deliverable of the Project Preparation Phase = Project Plan Project Plan contains: goal, scope statement, deliverables, stakeholder analysis, budget, timeline, resources, risks, … © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 The Project Management Process Project Project Project Preparation Execution Closure During the project, deliverables are delivered according to a milestone planning © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 The Project Management Process Project Project Project Preparation Execution Closure Knowledge transfer, lessons learned and project acceptance are delivered during Project Closure © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Budget management during the project Project Project Project Preparation Execution Closure Project Charter: Project Plan: Detailed Cost & Time Control: actuals Lessons Learned: cost & High level cost estimate estimations on work versus planned time performance package level -> aggregated + Change Mgt: new estimates for change requests © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Stanish group - CHAOS Report © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Top factors found in failed projects: 1. Incomplete Requirements 2. Lack of user involvement 3. Lack of resources 4. Unrealistic expectations 5. Lack of executive support 6. Changing Requirements & Specifications 7. Lack of planning 8. Didn’t need it any longer 9. Lack of IT management 10. Technical illiteracy © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 The top five factors in successful projects are: 1. User involvement 2. Executive management support 3. Clear Statement of Requirements 4. Proper planning 5. Realistic expectations © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Top vs Flop Top factors found in failed projects: The top five factors in successful projects: 1. Incomplete Requirements 1.User involvement 2. Lack of user involvement 2.Executive management support 3. Lack of resources 3.Clear Statement of Requirements 4. Unrealistic expectations 4.Proper planning 5. Lack of executive support 5.Realistic expectations 6. Changing Requirements & Specifications 7. Lack of planning 8. Didn’t need it any longer 9. Lack of IT management 10.Technical illiteracy © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Project Life Cycle © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Classic Project Management - Planning Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) Task ID Tasks Dependencies Duration Work Material 1.1 Order Concrete N/A 5 1 0 1.2 Prep Surface N/A 5 10 2000 1.3 Place molding 1.2 3 6 1000 Task List 1.4 Place concrete nets 1.3 1 2 1000 1.5 Pour Concrete 1.4 1 2 5000 1.6 Dry Concrete 1.5 14 0 0 1.7 Remove molding 1.6 2 2 0 © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Classic Project Management - Planning Task ID Tasks Dependencies Duration Work Material 1.1 Order Concrete N/A 5 1 0 Task List 1.2 Prep Surface N/A 5 10 2000 1.3 Place molding 1.2 3 6 1000 1.4 Place concrete nets 1.3 1 2 1000 1.5 Pour Concrete 1.4 1 2 5000 1.6 Dry Concrete 1.5 14 0 0 1.7 Remove molding 1.6 2 2 0 Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6 Critical Path Method Order Concrete Prep Surface (CPM) Molding + Nets +pour Dry Concrete Remove © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Classic Project Management - Planning Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6 Critical Path Method (CPM) Order Concrete Prep Surface Molding + Nets +pour Dry Concrete Remove Resource allocation © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Classic Project Management - Control Scope Quality People Manage = Control Risk Time Cost © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Project management processes (PMBOK) Initiating Process Group: Processes required to launch a new project or a new project phase. Planning Process Group: Processes related to defining and planning the extent of the project, as well as planning how it will be executed. Executing Process Group: Processes related to the actual completion of project activities and tasks. Monitoring & Controlling Process Group: Processes covering everything related to tracking, monitoring, reporting on, and controlling project performance and progress. Closing Process Group: Processes required to finalize and complete a project or project phase. © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Project management processes (PMBOK) © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Knowledge areas & performance domains (PMBOK) PMBOK 6 PMBOK 7 1. Project Integration Management 1. Team 2. Project Scope Management 3. Project Schedule Management 2. Stakeholders 4. Project Cost Management 3. Lifecycle 5. Project Quality Management 4. Planning 6. Project Resource Management 5. Navigating uncertainty & ambiguity 7. Project Communications Management 6. Delivery 8. Project Risk Management 9. Project Procurement Management 7. Performance 10. Project Stakeholder Management 8. Project work © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 PM process groups and knowledge areas (PMBOK 6) © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 12 Project Management Principles (PMBOK 7) 1. Stewardship: Be a diligent, respectful, and caring steward. 2. Team: Create a collaborative project team environment. 3. Stakeholders: Effectively engage with stakeholders. 4. Value: Focus on value. 5. Systems Thinking: Recognize, evaluate, and respond to system interactions. 6. Leadership: Demonstrate leadership behaviors. 7. Tailoring: Tailor based on context. 8. Quality: Build quality into processes and deliverables 9. Complexity: Navigate complexity. 10. Risk: Optimize risk responses. 11. Adaptability & Resilience: Embrace adaptability and resiliency. 12. Change: Enable change to achieve the envisioned future state. © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 The history of Agile: Roots in software development © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Agile: 4 values & 12 principles © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 The PM triangle: Classic vs Agile Constraints Requirements Cost Schedule Value driven Plan driven Estimates Cost Schedule Features Approach Requirements Activities Delivery Goal Performed once for the Classic (waterfall) Fixed Single Delivery Deliver at cost, on time and at quality entire project Frequent small Customer value via frequent deliveries & Agile (Scrum) Dynamic Repeat until correct deliveries feedback © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Agenda - Covered in these slides Introduction What is a project? How does project management work? Why does it matter? Stakeholder management Change management + communication Team motivation Scope management How to define scope How to manage Wrap-up + Q&A © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Stakeholder management What are stakeholders ? Why do we need them ? How do we analyze them ? How to we work with them ? Challenges with stakeholders ? © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Stakeholders Stakeholders are individuals or groups who have an interest or some aspect of rights or ownership in the project, and can contribute to, or be impacted by, the outcomes of the project. © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Stakeholder management Start to find Analyze Document Classify Plan 2. Plan 1. Identify stakeholder stakeholders management 4. Control 3. Manage stakeholder stakeholder engagement engagement Monitor Implement Update © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Identify stakeholders EVERYONE CAN BE A STAKEHOLDER … not everyone should be considered as one ! © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Identify stakeholders How to start? Start to find: Look at the project goal: who is impacted/ Who can impact the project ? Look at the organization you are working for: who is involved? Who should be involved ? Look at the environment around the project: communities? Government? Regulators ? How: conduct interviews and/or set up brainstorm with the project team © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Plan - Power/Interest matrix What is their interest in the project ? What is their Power ? How? Power/Interest Matrix ! © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Plan - Stakeholder circle Size pie= influence Depth = impact Distance from the core = proximity Color= type of stakeholder Pattern: group or person © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Plan - Stakeholder salience Power of the stakeholder Refers to the perceived validity or appropriateness of the stakeholder’s claim to a stake Urgency of the demand made by the stakeholder Refers to the degree to which the stakeholder’s claim demands immediate attention Legitimacy of the stakeholder demand Refers to the ability or capacity of a stakeholder to produce an effect © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Stakeholder management plan Stakeholder register Additions: Current & desired engagement levels Impact of change to stakeholders Interrelationships and overlap between stakeholders Communication requirements Information to be distributed (incl. language, format, content, level of detail, …) Reason for communictation and expected impact Time and frequency of distribution of information Method for updating/refining the plan Stakeholder Power Interest Engagement level Action(s) Details Status Stakeholder A H H Neutral -> Supportive Weekly status meetings Status + issues + risks Ongoing Stakeholder B H L Unaware -> neutral Monthly newsletter In English To start … © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Stakeholders: management -> engagement © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Stakeholder engagement Acknowledge Avoid conflicts Listen Engagement Cooperate Communicate Adapt © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Stakeholder engagement Unaware: unaware of project and potential impacts Resistant: Aware of project and potential impacts; resistant to change Neutral: Aware of project yet neither supportive nor resistant C = current / D = desired Supportive: Aware of project and potential impacts; supportive to change Leading: Aware of project and potential impact; actively engaged in ensuring the project is a success © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Challenges with stakeholders Distracted Too many projects and initiatives at the same time Global workforce Difficult to communicate and engage Cultural differences Resistance to change VUCA world Change is the only constant What happened to my project? My stakeholder? Me? © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 “Projects would be so much easier if it didn’t involve… people” - Anonymous Project Manager © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Hints & tips: How to start Consult early What & how you say it Be positive & convinced Open for feedback Adapt approach Fit to the stakeholder’s need & style Review the list, the plan & the engagement Consult often Informal & formal meetings Actively listen Be open for feedback © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Hints & tips: during the project Show the benefit What’s in it for them ? No Machiavelli Influcene with authenticity, integrity & sincerity Just do it! Actively engage with stakeholders Plan -> execute -> evaluate -> repeat © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Hints & tips: Stakeholders Relationships Actively work with your stakeholders Listen & Learn Actively listen: what are their real expectations Seek confirmation! Don’t assume, ask confirmation if their expectations are still met Their only human Expectations can change Can be irrational Perception can change Everything is people business Can conflict Different stakeholders = different /conflicting interests © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Stakeholder engagement is about turning stakeholders into opportunities to be successful as a project manager - Another unknown PM © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Agenda - Covered in these slides Introduction What is a project? How does project management work? Why does it matter? Stakeholder management Change management + communication Team motivation Scope management How to define scope How to manage Wrap-up + Q&A © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 The cycle of change © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Change and communication (Kübler Ross) © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Hints & tips for communication & change Communicate clearly, early, and often Communicate through & to the right people Communicate through multiple channels Answer the questions, “what’s in it for me?” “what does it mean to me?” Prepare for resistance Listen to feedback Don’t be afraid to repeat yourself © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Agenda - Covered in these slides Introduction What is a project? How does project management work? Why does it matter? Stakeholder management Change management + communication Team motivation Scope management How to define scope How to manage Wrap-up + Q&A © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Team motivation “I’m not the smartest fellow in the world, but I sure can pick smart colleagues.” — Franklin D. Roosevelt “A team is not a group of people who work together but a team is a group of people who trust each other.” — Simon Sinek © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Phases of team development (Tuckman) © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Dysfunctions of a team (Lencioni) © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Hoe reageren als project manager? © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Most difficult = trust => the trust equation © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Agenda - Covered in these slides Introduction What is a project? How does project management work? Why does it matter? Stakeholder management Change management + communication Team motivation Scope management How to define scope How to manage Wrap-up + Q&A © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Scope - definitions Project scope Management The process required to ensure that the project includes all the work required, and only the work required, to complete the project successfully. Managing the project scope is primarily concerned with defining and controlling what is in and what is not included in the project. Product scope: The features and functions that characterize a product, service or result. Project scope: The work performed to deliver a product, service, or result with the specific features and functions. The sum of the products, services, and results to be provided as a project © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Before scope management can start Collect all relevant information & documentation Project Execution Plan (PEP) contains Project charter: Document issued by the initiator/sponsor that authorizes the existence of a project and provides the PM with the authority to apply resources to project activities. Enterprise environmental factors Organizational chart (can very in different phases) with functions and names. Description of roles and responsibilities; RACI; Limit of responsibility Organization assets Company procedures & Scope change procedures Working processes to prepare and handle schedule, budget, incidents, … Communication strategy Other inputs Risk assessments Filling, naming and revision of documents Approval Cycle Without this you will never have the correct people in front of you and chaos will be your share © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Project scope management Business This is where your project goes wrong ! need Actual start of your project Collect data Define Will be treated together in this part of the course, as different scope stages in scope definition, require different information & data. Validate scope Important stage gate Control scope This is where your project goes wrong ! © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Business need What? It is actual necessity or need to start a project. It answers the question “Why are we doing this project” Who is involved? Normally higher management: Shareholders, board of directors, operational management… Other relevant stakeholders Strategic plan of a company (e.g. Input Output growth, diversification) Market demands (e.g. new products) Clear answer to your question ”Why are HR Department (e.g. training programs, we doing this project?” diversification, reorganization) Start of Project charter (remains your IT department (e.g. New software) basic reference for the project) Health and safety department Bottom-up initiatives © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Bussiness need - importance Business need is very rarely a clear description If it is not clarified by you, your target to start the project will be too vague. e.g. Improve safety in the company Find out, what is the bases for this specific business need. A business need is not a “technical” solution. e.g. A new production line is not business need. It does not answer the question “Why?” Business need: obsolescence and so not reliable, not flexible, Turnover growth, new products If the “why?” is not clear, the solution will be wrong/or too limited and re- work or delay will be the result. It is essential to get alignment between the requester(s) and the project team © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Bussiness need - Techniques & outcomes Expert judgment Requirements documentation Data gathering Requirements traceability matrix Brainstorming Interviews Focus groups Questionnaires and surveys Benchmarking Data analysis Document analysis Decision making Voting Multicriteria decision analysis Data representation Affinity diagrams Mind mapping Interpersonal and team skills Nominal group technique Observation/conversation Facilitation Context diagram Prototypes © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Requirements traceability matrix A grid that links requirements from their origin to the deliverables that satisfy them. Helps ensure a requirement adds business value by linking it to the objectives Provide a means to track requirements throughout the project life cycle Ensure that requirements approved in the requirements documentation are delivered at the end of the project Finally, it provides a structure for managing changes to the product scope Tracing requirements includes: Business needs, opportunities, goals, and objectives; Project objectives; Project scope and WBS deliverables; Product design; Product development; Test strategy and test scenarios © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Project scope management Business need Collect data Collect data & Define Define scope scope Validate scope Control scope © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Collecting data and define scope Collecting data and Define the scope = Project Scope Description What? Project Scope Description is a document or collection of documents that describe the target (business need) the criteria input requested output of the project It will be the backbone of your project scope throughout the entire project life cycle. It will be together with your schedule, budget and project plan, the “bible” of the project Consists out of 2 main parts: 1. A functional description 2. The work breakdown structure (WBS) © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Collecting data and define scope Functional description Other names: Pharmaceutical industry: User Requirement Brief; PMBOK: Project Scope Statement; Others: program of demands, Project Description Sheet, Statement of Scope What? It describes all the functionalities of your project of the starting conditions and of the requested project output It contains typical: The target or Business need; The request product description (the output of the project), including all of its characteristics and acceptance criteria; The project acceptance criteria (under which the project can be stopped or continued, e.g.: ROI, schedule, resources, budget, quality…); The project main deliverables; The constrains; © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Functional description: Actual => New situation Concrete project outcome Business “Technical“ Input need Output solution Solution characteristics Assumptions; Legal requirements; INCLUDES Risks; (Standards); (Company procedures); Project boundaries; Exclusions; Impact on other departments/services or projects PM and project team; INVOLVES Requester; Actual user; Experts (internal/experts); Others: Quality, maintenance, HR, IT, legal advisor… © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Hints & Tips: Collecting data and define scope Do not only discuss with department managers Contact who will be involved with the outcome of your project on daily bases e.g. operators, workers, maintenance people, IT-ers, safety controllers … Take time for discussions, reviews, brainstorms, and reflection Going too fast will stop the reflection: Better ideas will come when you are in the next phase leading to re-work Taking extra time here will save you lots in the next phase Explain “live” the functional description Make it official by signing it off by the required stakeholders If necessary, make a confidential part (critical product/company data) © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Scope decomposition Scope = the sum of the products, services, and results to be provided as a project. Scope decomposition: Scope can be elaborated using Scope statement to identify the major deliverables associated with the project Acceptance criteria for each deliverable Scope can be elaborated by decomposing it into lower levels of detail using a work breakdown structure. A WBS is a hierarchical decomposition of the total scope of work to be carried out to accomplish the project objectives and create the required deliverables Each level down in the hierarchy represents a greater level of detail of the deliverable © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Work breakdown structure A WBS of a project: a subdivision of all project deliverables and project work into smaller, clearer and manageable components, called work package It provides a list of everything that must be delivered It is a hierarchical and logical decomposition of the total scope Important: a WBS contains deliverables & work packages. NOT activities. © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Work breakdown structure Use decomposition: break the deliverables in smaller, more manageable pieces Work package Lowest level of the WBS Cost & duration can be/will be estimated and managed on this level Basis for your Work Schedule © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 WBS dictionary Document that provides detailed deliverable & scheduling information about each WBS component. Information in the WBS dictionary may include but is not limited to: Identifier: unique Hierarchical number Description of work (the work package) Responsible person or organization, Assumptions and constraints, Schedule milestones, Associated schedule activities, Resources required, Cost estimates, Quality requirements, Acceptance criteria, Technical references, Agreement information Optional elements Discipline (civil, software, electricity, PM….); Sub-discipline (walls, windows, foundations, steel structure…) Option Y/N? Remarks Procurement package © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 WBS: example from software development Phases of the project life cycle as the 2nd level of decomposition Product and project deliverables inserted at the third level © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 WBS: example from engineering Major deliverables as the 2nd level of decomposition Incorporating subcomponents that may be developed by organizations outside the project team, such as contracted work The vendor then develops the supporting contract WBS as part of the contracted work © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 WBS: Hints & tips Use Excel. Easy to install filters and make calculations Always prepare a network Start the high-level division Divide level by level Add enough detail and information Select as much columns as you deem to be necessary. You can always hide them Correct level of detailing: the work packages depend entirely on you and your team Use the WBS structure As a price list during procurement; In your work Schedule and project Schedule (later) Use the WBS as communication tool: Explain the WBS to your customer If it is clear, it is good ! © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Scope - Quick summary Business need: WHY ? Project Execution Plan: HOW ? project charter: mandate for the project context Project scope description: WHAT ? Functional description: outcome + solution Requirements Assumptions, Risks, Boundaries, Exclusions, Contraints, … Main deliverables Acceptance criteria WBS: breakdown => deliverables & activities © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Exercise: create WBS + identify activities 1. Build a Work Breakdown Structure showing the main deliverables. 2. List the activities needed to create the deliverables. © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Project scope management Business need Collect data Define scope Validate scope Validate scope Control scope © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Validate the Scope What? The process of formalizing acceptance of the complete scope Ensuring that the defined scope enables to guarantee a consistent answer to the business need. How? Group sessions in which the scope is explained and discussed; Project Risk analysis: What, if… ? Group decision techniques Output A fixed project scope that will serve as the scope baseline for the rest of the project. A bases for project schedule, estimating, budgeting, procurement and realization. © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Validate the Scope: Hints & tips Try to have intermediate scope validation sessions as soon as a considerable part of the project is considered as ready by the project team. Define a stage/gate model Acceptance criteria of the deliverables for every phase (stage) in your scope definition are defined. Start of the next phase depends on the results of the control of these criteria at the end of the previous phase (gate). It is not an opportunity to include additional scope, people are often tempted to do so. Communication regarding scope validation is essential Often changes or issues are found during the validation process. This is preferable and much less costly to being surprised by problems at the end of the project. Scope issues can be corrected quickly before their effects are propagated to the end result. © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Project scope management Business need Collect data Define scope Validate scope Control Control scope scope © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Control the Scope: scope change management 1. Identify the need 6. Adapt 2. Evaluate project scope impact 5. Track overall 3. Prepare changes scope change 4. Approve scope change © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Control the Scope What? Any change requested by the customer/user; Missing (forgotten) deliverables or tasks Development of business need, design, … When? After scope validation, because before it is taken into the initial study Can occur in each stage of the project: Engineering – e.g., something forgotten in engineering Procurement – e.g., good idea from a quoting party (contractor) Execution – e.g., site situation that was misjudged or changed, requesting an adapted technical solution Commissioning – e.g., extra support requested for commissioning © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Control the Scope Formal (RfC = request for change) or informal (scope creep or goldplating) Consider the impacts Schedule Budget Quality Safety Organization and resources The exact procedure is described in a scope change procedure, What is considered as a scope change Who can introduce a scope change? The procedure to follow from request till approval The authority level for approval & conditions under which each authority level can approve a scope change At this point we know if we would approve or decline this change => COMMUNICATE! Understand change request & its impacts Explain to customer/steerco why change should be accepted & why the impacts are what they are © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Control the scope: Gold-plating & scope creep Gold plating Occurs when a project manager or team member (so: internal) believes that a project could be enhanced by an additional feature and includes it without approval. Moves the project beyond the originally scope and has potential negative effects Potential negative effects include: Extending the time or budget that to complete the project Wasting money and time when the team has to remove or correct additions Dissolving trust among stakeholders who no longer feel confident that specific instructions will be followed Scope creep and gold-plating both mean going outside the scope baseline Gold-plating is the result of choices made by the project manager or team, while scope creep refers to additions initiated by the client (external of the project team) In scope creep, a client or user may intentionally or unintentionally increase the workload ▪ While it’s common for users or clients to make additional requests during a project, scope creep occurs when there is no adjustment to the project plan that is being completed. ▪ Thus, the project team is doing extra work without receiving any additional budget or time © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Control the Scope: Hints & Tips Keep track of ALL (incl. rejected) scope change requests It is important to RECOGNIZE scope changes, to avoid SCOPE CREEP Unofficial scope changes Stakeholders are not aware Impact not estimated but impact on final project result ‘Bad surprise’ at the end of the project: Budget overrun, Schedule slippage, More effort required Update all key project documents = new scope baseline Project Description Schedule – new baseline Budget © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Control the Scope: Hints & Tips Do not accept scope change that sneaked into the project, without formal approval Kill it immediately! It is a plague that cannot be stopped. You will lose control over your project. Dirty trick: answer any scope change request with “denied”. It will make them think twice before entering the next request ☺ Never approve a scope change request without the impact on scope, budget, schedule, quality and safety Another trick: Make the change requester fill in the scope change template Start your project with complete requirements © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Control the scope: completion of deliverables Depending on the approach used, there are different ways to describe component or project completion: Acceptance or completion criteria: The criteria to be met before the customer accepts the deliverable or before the project is considered complete are documented in a scope statement. Technical performance measures: The technical specifications for a product may be documented in a specifications document, or as an extension to the WBS. This extension, known as a WBS dictionary, elaborates the information for each deliverable in the WBS. Definition of done. The definition of done is used in agile. It is a checklist of all criteria required so that a deliverable can be considered ready for customer use. Scope verification should happen at least at the end of each phase of the project. © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Control the Scope: Acceptance criteria Project Acceptance Criteria Include performance requirements and essential conditions, which must be met before project deliverables are accepted Set out the specific circumstances under which the user will accept the final output of the project Can measure, achieve, and prove that work is complete Acceptance criteria are documented in the requirements document and the Project scope statement. Acceptance criteria are an important part of contractual agreements on external projects Importance: Set the right expectations with stakeholders Avoid miscommunication & create clarity Determines success (getting paid or not) on a project © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Agenda - Covered in these slides Introduction What is a project? How does project management work? Why does it matter? Stakeholder management Change management + communication Team motivation Scope management How to define scope How to manage Wrap-up + Q&A © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Wrap-up What have you learned today © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Q&A © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 APPENDIX © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Reference material Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK) - PMI [not included] Lexicon Additional material 1. What is Project Management? - PMI 2. Process group and knowledge area mapping - https://www.deepfriedbrainproject.com 3. Project Performance Domains - PMI 4. Project relationships and the Stakeholder Circle - PMI 5. Integrated change management - PMI 6. Motivation: how to increase project team performance - PMI 7. Project Success Quick Reference Card - CHAOS 2020: Beyond Infinity Overview 8. Project Scope Management according to the PMBOK - https://www.projectengineer.net/ 9. Scope: mastering the Fuzzy Constraint - PMI 10. Scope change control - PMI 11. Top Five Causes of Scope Creep - PMI © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Project Management Dries Vandevyvere (Proj3ctS BV) KU Leuven © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Introduction - Course Content Part 1: Intro, stakeholders, change & scope management What is a project? How does project management work? Why does it matter? Stakeholder management + change + communication + team motivation How to define and manage the scope of the project Part 2: Estimating, scheduling & resources Reliable project estimates Project Scheduling done right Optimize resource scheduling Part 3: Risks, progress & Agile Project Risk Management Tracking progress and keeping your project on track + Earned value management Project management in an Agile world Hybrid project management: the best of both worlds © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Agenda - Covered in these slides Reliable project estimates Introduction & the basics The estimation process Diving into the numbers: estimation techniques The little secrets: tips, tricks & common pitfalls Project scheduling done right Introduction & Tools Let’s schedule Hints for the right schedule Optimize resource allocation Introduction & the basics Adjust resources allocation: Resource leveling & smoothing Additional resource allocation techniques Tips & tricks © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Agenda - Covered in these slides Reliable project estimates Introduction & the basics The estimation process Diving into the numbers: estimation techniques The little secrets: tips, tricks & common pitfalls Project scheduling done right Introduction & Tools Let’s schedule Hints for the right schedule Optimize resource allocation Introduction & the basics Adjust resources allocation: Resource leveling & smoothing Additional resource allocation techniques Tips & tricks © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Introduction - Quick recap Work breakdown structure (WBS) PMI definition: “A hierarchical decomposition of the total scope of work to be carried out by the project team to accomplish the project objectives and create the required deliverables” The WBS provides the relationships among all the components of the project and the project deliverables Is all about “deliverables” Work package: PMI definition: “The work defined at the lowest level of the WBS for which cost and duration can be estimated and managed.” In other words: the smallest possible or smallest desirable “deliverable” © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Introduction - Quick recap WBS dictionary PMI definition: “A document that provides detailed deliverable, activity, and scheduling information about each component in the work breakdown structure” This is a document that supports the WBS. Work schedule or project schedule Project schedule PMI definition: “An output of a schedule model that presents linked activities with planned dates, durations, milestones, and resources. Goes down to the level of “activities” EXAM TIP: difference between “deliverables” and “activities” © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Introduction - Key challenges in estimation “Project managers aren’t fortune-tellers” © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Introduction - Why do estimates matter? Project failure could be late completion budget overruns or not achieving business benefits Standish group - Chaos report - IT projects The estimate is the baseline of the project (& your) success ! © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Introduction - The project Project “celebration party”: a simple example Next week you will be hosting a dinner party for a successful project As a project manager, you see this as a project But you have never hosted a party before Luckily, your significant other has been a host on many occasions Where to start ? © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Basics - definition Estimating: “the science of uncertainty” Estimate = A quantitative assessment of the likely amount or outcome Usually preceded by a modifier (i.e. rough order-of-magnitude, preliminary, conceptual, feasibility, definitive, final) Should always include some indication of accuracy (e.g. +- x percent) The estimating process is there to ensure that we have planned the project with the correct scope, cost, earnings, resources & deadlines © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Basics - Typical levels of accuracy Rough Order of Magnitude estimate (aka “ball-park estimate”) -50% to +50% (PMBOK® 4th edition) -25% to +75% (PMBOK® 5th edition) Preliminary estimate = -15% to + 50% Budget estimate = -10% to +25% Definitive estimate = -5% to +10% Final estimate = 0% © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Basics - Back to the project “celebration party” What does estimation have to do with your party ? What do you estimate ? © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Basics - Estimation What do we estimate Activity durations Resources: Human resources (labor) / Material / Supplies / Equipment Cost / effort Definition of “Estimate” according to PMBOK® Activity Durations: the process of estimating the number of work periods needed to complete individual activities with estimated resources. The key benefit of this process is that it provides the amount of time each activity will take to complete. Costs: the process of developing an approximation of the cost of resources needed to complete project work. The key benefit of this process is that it determines the monetary resources required for the project. Activity Resources: the process of estimating team resources and the type and quantities of materials, equipment, and supplies necessary to perform project work. The key benefit of this process is that it identifies the type, quantity, and characteristics of resources required to complete the project. © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Basics - Understand the purpose When providing an estimate, there is a purpose: to provide information to quantify uncertainty so that a decision can be made Decision-making is usually not done by the person who provides the estimate The person providing the estimate usually isn’t the person who needs the estimate for a decision To be relevant and useful (for the decision maker), the purpose needs to be understood. This purpose serves as the foundation and necessary context of each estimation. Enables to determine the method required to produce the appropriate estimation In turn, the decision made is impacted by the quality of the estimate Without understanding the purpose, it is easy to become distracted by the noise of overwhelming information & uncertainty, making it difficult to select the estimation method required A common misconception between methods and techniques. Many different techniques (e.g. “tools” or technical skills applied to achieve a desired result) A method is a procedure (including a logical, systematic or established plan): Depending on the project and level of risk associated, employ different methods for the estimation. © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Basics - The cone of uncertainty Evolution of the amount of (best case) uncertainty during a project At the beginning comparatively little is known and so estimates are subject to large uncertainty. As more research and development is done, more information is learned, and the uncertainty tends to decrease Narrowed both by research and by decisions that remove the sources of variability from the project. The project team and PM should actively and continuously work to reduce the uncertainty level. This reaches 0% when all residual risk has been terminated or transferred End of the project Transfer responsibilities to a maintenance group © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Estimation process Rumor in companies “ … estimation is a failed art form that seldom produces useful predictions …” “ … a desire to find better tools in order to produce improved results …” “ … facts and spreadsheets always trump intuition and perspectives …” No ! “Estimation is not an event, it's a process!” It is not about the art or the tools … it is about the process and the data Three key inputs: understanding of the project scope the risks associated with that scope the quality of the data Improve estimation means organizational and/or process improvement © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Process overview Improve Prepare to Create Manage estimating estimate estimate estimates process Prepare to Estimate stage: Creation of a project estimating approach. Create Estimates stage: Take the planning documents and other inputs and use estimating techniques to create the project estimate. Manage Estimates stage: Covers the ongoing maintenance and management of all estimates Improve Estimating Process stage: Take actual data and lessons learned and incorporate them back into the estimating processes and tools. © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Process overview Prepare to Create estimate Manage estimates Improve estimate Activity resources, Managing of the estimating Creation of the activity durations, and estimates occurs after process estimating approach: costs are estimated. the original estimate is completed and has As projects progress, identification of There are several lessons learned are activities, determining models and been validated members. applied to the the techniques to be techniques for estimating lifecycle, used for estimating, determining the After the project work including calibrating identifying the estimates has started: the models based on estimating team, estimation includes actual values, and preparing estimating the activities used to maintaining checklists inputs, and manage the estimate, of components to documenting any including changing include in future constraints to the controls, calibrating estimates. estimates the full cost, and comparing actual Improvements can be costs to the baseline applied at both estimate. project and organization levels © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Start of the estimating process - Prepare Focus on the design of the project estimating strategy We are not estimating (yet) but laying the groundwork to create a reliable estimate Identify the estimating resources required & the tools needed to estimate satisfactorily Decompose project into its key characteristics or into subsets of deliverables: WBS, Requirements, Risks, … Identify comparable historical data sets or parametric models Use the best available model to produce an estimated range of likely results Identify (internal or external) influences TIP: Don’t dive into estimating without paying proper attention to this planning phase © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Prepare to estimate To do’s in this phase: Identification of activities Determining the techniques to be used for estimating Identifying the estimating team Preparing estimating inputs Documenting any constraints to the estimates Process for “Estimate Cost” (PMBOK) © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 “Celebration party” - Prepare to estimate Identification of activities: The WBS Aperitif + 3 courses + coffee + drinks afterwards Determining the techniques to be used for estimating => see later Identifying the estimating team The PM (= you) + Your significant other (= the expert) + Your assistant (= part of the organizing team) Preparing estimating inputs Data: 15 attendees already accepted Previous project celebration was over budget The sponsor (who will join) has expressed his preference for a traditional French style cuisine Documenting any constraints to the estimates Budget should stay below 100 € / person People should go home timely & safely afterwards © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Estimating techniques “if all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail” - Abraham Maslow Expand your PM toolbox with a range of estimating techniques © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Create estimate: Dive into the numbers Process step: “create estimate” How to estimate: Questions to ask What have we learned from the past? What variables drive my estimate? What kind and size of uncertainty do we face? What expertise is available? © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Diving into the numbers What have we learned from the past? => Analogous estimating What variables drive my estimate? => Parametric estimate What kind and size of uncertainty do we face? => Program evaluation and review techniques (PERT) & Multiple point estimation What expertise is available? => Expert judgement and group decision making techniques © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Analogous estimating Definition Estimating using historical data from a similar activity or project. Uses parameters from a previous, similar project, such as duration, budget, size, weight, and complexity, as the basis for estimating the same parameter or measure for a future project. Relies on the actual data of previous, similar projects as the basis for estimating the current project. Values and attributes of the projects may include but are not limited to scope, cost, budget, duration, and measures of scale (e.g., size, weight). Comparison of these project values, or attributes, becomes the basis for estimating the same parameter or measurement for the current project. When to use? Gross value estimating approach, sometimes adjusted for known differences in project complexity When there is a limited amount of detailed information about the project Generally, less costly and less time-consuming than other techniques (but less accurate) Most reliable when the previous activities are similar in fact and not just in appearance, The project team members preparing the estimates have the needed expertise Estimates can be applied to a total project or to segments of a project and may be used in conjunction with other estimating methods. © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 “Celebration party” - Analogous estimate How would you apply this technique to estimate the duration? Input from your significant other Number of Event Menu Duration attendees New year party with 6 course meal: Hors d'oeuvres, Soup, Appetizer, Salad, From 18h to 12 family Main Course, Dessert + New year celebration 2:00 AM Mid year BBQ 3 course meal: Appetizer, Main Course (BBQ), Dessert 50 2 hours Team lunch Walking dinner: cold dishes + sandwiches 31 1 hour Catered birthday party 3 Course meal 17 12:00 to 14:45 Previous celebration in 4 Course Meal: Hors d'oeuvres, Appetizer, Main Course, restaurant Dessert 24 3,5 hours What is your estimate ? © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Parametric estimate Definition An estimating technique in which an algorithm is used to calculate based on historical data and project parameters. Uses a statistical relationship between historical data and other variables to calculate an estimate for activity parameters, such as cost, budget, and duration. For example Durations can be quantitatively determined by multiplying the quantity of work to be performed by the number of labor hours per unit of work: Duration on a design project is estimated by the number of drawings multiplied by the number of labor hours per drawing On a cable installation, the meters of cable multiplied by the number of labor hours per meter. If the assigned resource is capable of installing 25 meters of cable per hour, the duration required to install 1,000 meters is 40 hours (1,000 meters divided by 25 meters per hour). An activity needs 4,000 hours of coding and it needs to finish it in 1 year, it will require two people to code (each doing 2,000 hours a year). When to use? Can produce higher levels of accuracy depending on the sophistication and underlying data built into the model Can be applied to a total project or to segments of a project, in conjunction with other estimating methods © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 “Celebration party” - Parametric estimate How would you apply this technique to estimate the cost? Info 15 attendees have confirmed You will foresee 1 bottle of Cava per 3 persons 20% of the attendees choose the non-alcoholic alternative A bottle of Cava is 7 € / A carton of fruit-juice 2 € What is the total cost ? # people # bottles price / bottle cost alcoholic 12 4 €7 € 28 non-alcoholic 3 1 €2 €2 TOTAL € 30 © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Parametric estimate - additional examples In software (development) Based on (story or function) points: 2 small @ 100 € + 5 medium @ 230 € = 1350 € Based on RICEFW’s (Reports, Interface, Conversion, Enhancements, Forms and Workflow): 2 complex interfaces @ 3000 € + 2 simple forms @ 750 € = 8250 € Based on traditional licenses: fixed cost of 5000 € + recurring maintenance of 20 % = 6000 € for year 1 Based on SaaS (Software as a Service) user licenses for 1 year for 3 users: 1 - 5 users @ 13 €/month and 5 - 100 users @ 10 €/month = 3 * 13 * 12 = 468 € In services Based on labor hours: 10 hours (including 2 hours overtime) of 2 juniors @ 30 €/h + 1 full day a senior @ 40 €/h = 980 € Based on number of km for transport: 500 km @ 0,85 €/km = 425 € In civil construction Based on square meters of living surface: 150 m² * 1500 €/m² = 225000 € Applying a luxury factor (1,25) and complexity factor (+10%) = 321750 € Based on running meters: 11 km of motorway @ 4 k€/m = 44 m€ © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Program evaluation and review technique (PERT) Start observation: “Single point estimates make for poor project decision making” PERT technique developed by the United States Navy in the 1958 commonly used in conjunction with the critical path method statistical tool used in project management Input optimistic time: the minimum possible time required to accomplish an activity (o) or a path (O), assuming everything proceeds better than is normally expected pessimistic time: the maximum possible time required to accomplish an activity (p) or a path (P), assuming everything goes wrong (but excluding major catastrophes). most likely time: the best estimate of the time required to accomplish an activity (m) or a path (M), assuming everything proceeds as normal. Output: Beta distribution expected time: best estimate of the time required to accomplish an activity (te) or a path (TE) tE = (o + 4m + p) / 6 standard deviation: variability of the time to accomplishing an activity (σte) or a path (σTE) σte = (p - o) / 6 © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Program evaluation and review technique (PERT) Important: If you use this method well Each task has about a 50% chance of finishing on-time (or early), and Each task has about a 50% chance of finishing later than expected In theory, for every task that finishes later than expected, there will be another task that should finish earlier than expected (‘Central Limit Theorem’): Late-finishing tasks offset early-finishing tasks, so the project ought to finish right on-time. Reality: Tasks very rarely finish earlier, but often finish later than expected. Solution: Contingency and more advanced techniques © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 “Celebration party” - Three-Point Estimating How would you apply this technique to estimate the material (food) needed? What are the scenario’s? Optimistic Most likely Pessimistic What about … … a flu epidemic and half of your guest stay home in bed … the attendees misunderstand your invite and bring their significant other... any other “unknown unknowns” © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Group decision techniques: Delphi “Making sense of the consensus” Widely used and accepted method for gathering data from respondents within their domain of expertise. The technique is designed as a group communication process which aims to achieve a convergence of opinion on a specific real-world issue. Used in various fields of study such as program planning, needs assessment, policy determination, and resource utilization to develop a full range of alternatives, explore or expose underlying assumptions, as well as correlate judgments on a topic spanning a wide range of disciplines. Well suited as a method for consensus-building by using a series of questionnaires delivered using multiple iterations to collect data from a panel of selected subjects. © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 The Delphi Technique for estimates An expertise-based process that a team can use to generate an estimate for both the top-down and bottom-up stages Technique the project manager chooses an estimation team, and asks each person (or small sub-team) to estimate a series of quantities (costs or schedules) Then the teams are informed of the other teams’ estimates, and the process is repeated Benefits The Delphi technique can be used when no historical data exists Is useful when installing a new product methodology or making a significant change to an existing one or implementing a unique product or project. Anonymous group approach to estimation, based on the theory that: Group opinions are fairly reliable Extreme views get annulled Informal one-on-one conversations are susceptible to bias and intimidation Individuals might not estimate frankly in the presence of managers, customers or other stakeholders © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 The Delphi process Theoretically, the Delphi process can be continuously iterated until consensus is determined to have been achieved 3 or 4 iterations are often sufficient to collect the needed information and to reach consensus Round 1: an open-ended questionnaire Round 2: a second questionnaire to review the items summarized by the investigators based on the information provided in the first round Round 3: questionnaire that includes the items and ratings summarized by the investigators in the previous round to revise his/her judgments or “to specify the reasons for remaining outside the consensus” Round 4: the list of remaining items, their ratings, minority opinions, and items achieving consensus and final opportunity for participants to revise their judgments A facilitator (f.e. the PM) provides an anonymous summary of the experts’ forecasts from the previous round with the reasons for their judgments © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 The Delphi process: put to practice Objective: clarify and expand on issues, identify areas of agreement or disagreement and begin to find consensus Step 1: Choose a Facilitator Take on this role yourself or find a neutral person within your organization. Choose someone familiar with research and data collection. Step 2: Identify Your Experts (= any individual with relevant knowledge and experience of a particular topic) The technique relies on a panel of experts: your project team, including the customer, or other experts from your organization or industry Step 3: Define the Problem What is the problem or issue you are seeking to understand? Ensure you provide a precise and comprehensive definition. Step 4: Round One Questions Ask general questions to gain a broad understanding of the experts view. Collate and summarize the responses, removing any irrelevant material and looking for common viewpoints. Step 5: Round Two Questions Based on the answers to the first questions, the next questions should delve deeper into the topic to clarify specific issues. Collate and summarize the results, removing any irrelevant material and look for the common ground. Remember, we are seeking to build consensus. Step 6: Round Three, Four, … Questions Focus on supporting decision making. Home in on the areas of agreement. What is it the experts are all agreed upon? You may wish to have more than three rounds of questioning to reach a closer consensus. Step 7: Act on Your Findings Your experts will reach a consensus and you will have a view of future events. Analyze the findings and put plans in place to deal with future risks and opportunities to your project. © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Delphi Key areas to be considered when designing and implementing a Delphi study Choosing appropriate subjects is the most important step in the entire process because it directly relates to the quality of the results generated Time frame for conducting and completing a study: can be time-consuming and the possibility of low response rates Potential of Molding Opinions: The iteration characteristics can potentially enable molding opinion or unintentionally guiding feedback from the respondent group Potential of Identifying General Statements vs. Specific Topic Related Information: assumption participants are equivalent in knowledge & experience Formulation of the questions in the first round is essential: consider involving an expert in this stage No uniform method of analysis for dealing with the material from the first round. Opinions tend to change with time © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Expert judgement Expert judgment is defined as judgment provided based upon expertise in an application area, knowledge area, discipline, industry, … as appropriate for the activity being performed Expertise should be considered from individuals or groups with specialized knowledge or training in the following topics: Previous similar projects Information in the industry, discipline, and application area Estimating methods Technical knowledge of the industry and focus area of the project Risk identification Determining the tools and techniques to be used Determining resources and skill levels needed to perform project work Facilitation and conflict management … © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Other techniques (quick overview) Monte Carlo Simulation Monte Carlo simulation is a way to simulate the execution of multiple times (computer simulation). Each simulation assumes a new random set of outcomes for each duration or cost. The random outcomes follow a distribution of likelihoods. It also gives ranges, and likelihoods for each point in the range. More accurate way to estimate your project schedule and budget. More time-consuming and expensive. Special software and skill needed. Cost of quality (CoQ) Prevention costs (prevention of poor quality) / Appraisal costs (evaluating, measuring, auditing, and testing) Failure costs (internal/external related to nonconformance of the products, deliverables, or services ) Balance for investing in the cost of prevention and appraisal to avoid failure costs -> optimal quality cost for projects, where investing in additional prevention/appraisal costs is neither beneficial nor cost effective. Project management software Vendor bid analysis Data analysis: For example, “alternatives analysis” is used to evaluate identified options in order to select the options Various levels of resource capability or skills, different sizes or types of machines, different tools (manual versus automated), and make-rent-or buy decisions Function Point analysis: used to compute a functional size measurement of software © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Getting the numbers: Choosing the technique Choice of technique has impact on Time to create estimate Cost to estimate Overhead cost to all projects Each leads to different accuracy levels Note: It all starts with the quality of the input and data © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Exercise - Fill in the questions sheet © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Jump back to the process - Manage Improve Prepare to Manage Create estimate estimating estimate estimates process Manage estimates Begins when the original estimate is completed, has been validated with the project team members, and the project work has started. Includes many activities that are used to manage the estimate, including changing controls, calibrating the full cost, and comparing actual costs to the baseline estimate Inputs: Starts with the baseline Estimate: Cost, schedule and resources, along with approved changes to the baseline, would constitute key baseline information. The Resource Plan (including skills of the resource) Work Performance deals with actual time and cost to complete deliverables. © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Jump back to the process - Manage Improve Prepare to Manage Create estimate estimating estimate estimates process Key stages of managing the estimates: Apply actuals data from various data sources Review and Control using information from tools such as Earned Value method, Change control, and PMIS/PPM system Re-estimate baselines after formal approval if there are significant changes Important The importance of Earned Value (EV): EV is early indicators or warning signals of project trouble Using Variance data, the project manager can calculate revised estimates © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Don’t forget the feedback loop - Improve Lessons learned should applied to the estimating lifecycle, including Refined calibration of the models, based on new actual values, Maintaining check lists of components to include in future estimates. Inputs for this process: Activities in this process: Baseline Estimates Project Estimating Approach Historical Project Information Baselined Estimates Updated Estimates/Forecasts Change Log Actuals vs. Estimates Data Stakeholder Feedback Organizational Process Assets Improve Prepare to Manage Create estimate estimating estimate estimates process © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 The little secrets Always include contingency /reserve “An estimate can only go down”: communicate assumptions & accuracy Avoid making numbers fit the budget Bottom-up / Top-down: 2 sides of the same story Double-check for commonly overlooked activities “Our human mind fails us”: bias challenges in estimating Measure Probabilistically Over Guessing Badly Don’t forget risks Estimating is a team sport Value estimation © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Reserve and contingency Reserve analysis is used to determine the amount of contingency and management reserve needed for the project. Include contingency reserves to account for uncertainty Contingency reserves are the estimate for identified risks that are accepted Contingency reserves are associated with the known-unknowns, which may be estimated to account for this unknown The contingency reserve may be a percentage of the estimated activity duration or a fixed number Contingency reserves may be separated from the individual activities and aggregated Contingency should be clearly identified in the schedule documentation As more precise information about the project becomes available, the contingency reserve may be used, reduced, or eliminated Estimates may also be produced for the amount of management reserve for the project. Management reserves are a specified amount of the project budget withheld for management control purposes and are reserved for unforeseen work that is within scope of the project Management reserves are intended to address the unknown-unknowns that can affect a project Management reserve is not included in the baseline, but it is part of the overall project requirements © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Contingency Contingency is something that’s expected to be spent: Don’t remove it from an estimate simply to make the project look less expensive Contingency is not only money: also include the time and resources needed to handle the work the contingency implies If the contingency is not needed, the project will simply be done earlier and the organization can keep the funds for another time TIP: For quick calculation you can use a percentage to determine contingency. A detailed calculation on uncertainty and risk is better! © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Contingency and accuracy © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 “An estimate can only go down” The reality: Think twice before calling out a number. Numbers stick. Communicate requirements & assumptions: Employ requirements management by providing clear details Mention the specific assumptions behind the numbers. Always indicate the accuracy level & modifier: see the basics ! © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Avoid making numbers fit the budget You might be tempted/ forced to (pressure the team to) keep the numbers optimistically low. But this creates an estimate that is only good on paper When the time comes to justify an overage, it will become apparent that asked to estimate low numbers and overage should be expected. If the budget and scope are at odds, adjust the scope Think about the PM triangle Tip: Ask the team to provide what can be done within the budget. © Proj3ctS - Dries Vandevyvere - 2024 Bottom-up / Top-down Bottom-up / Top-down: 2 sides of the same story Bottom-up: estimating project duration or cost by aggregating the estimates of the lower-level components of the WBS. Top-down: estimate the total cost of a project by using information from a previous, similar project (analogous estimating). The tip: Avoid using only high-level (top-down) breakdowns

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