13 Questions
What are risks that you know about and understand?
Known knowns
What is the term for oversimplifying reality and ignoring unpredictability?
Platonicity
What is the characteristic of a project that gets stronger from chaos and uncertainty?
Antifragile
What is one way to make projects less fragile?
Allow time for proper planning
What is the term for completely unpredictable risks?
Black Swans
What is the primary focus of top-down thinking?
Big ideas like religion, politics, or rules
What is the main difference between top-down and bottom-up thinking?
One focuses on details, the other on big ideas
What is an example of deductive reasoning in top-down thinking?
Concluding that all football players are violent because one player is violent
What is the main risk of top-down thinking, according to Taleb's Black Swan theory?
It is prone to unpredictable events
What is an example of an axiomatic belief?
All men are created equal
What should you evaluate when assessing top-down thinking?
The premises, logic, and relevance of the argument
What is a characteristic of faith-based beliefs in top-down thinking?
They are considered obviously true without proof
What is a Black Swan event, according to Taleb's theory?
A rare, unpredictable event with big impacts
Study Notes
Top-down Thinking
- Focuses on big ideas like religion, politics, or rules
- Sees the world in a uniform way ("all things are the same")
- Ignores individual circumstances and details
Evaluating Top-down Thinking
- Check if the basic beliefs are true
- Four ways to consider this:
- Premise seems obviously true
- Speaker claims to be a trustworthy source
- Speaker cites trusted experts
- Speaker gives reasons, creating a new argument to evaluate
- Is the argument logical?
- Often logically strong but can have inconsistencies
- Are the reasons relevant?
- Usually relevant
- Is the argument non-circular?
- Argument should not use the conclusion as a reason for itself
Black Swan Theory
- Rare, unpredictable events with big impacts
- Examples:
- Positive: Slow-building changes like the rise of the internet
- Negative: Sudden disasters like the 9/11 attacks
- Risk categories by Donald Rumsfeld:
- Known knowns: Risks you know about and understand
- Known unknowns: Risks you know exist but can't identify
- Unknown knowns: Risks you should know but don't realize
- Unknown unknowns (Black Swans): Completely unpredictable risks
Managing Unexpected Events
- Platonicity: Over-simplifying reality, ignoring unpredictability
- Fragile vs. Robust vs. Antifragile:
- Fragile: Easily broken by uncertainty (e.g., a teacup in an earthquake)
- Robust: Can withstand shocks but doesn't benefit from them
- Antifragile: Gets stronger from chaos and uncertainty
- How to make projects less fragile:
- Be realistic about costs and time
- Allow time for proper planning
- Ensure good communication
- Be aware of personal biases
- Use flexible methods like Agile
- Plan for flexibility and adaptability
This quiz explores the concept of top-down thinking, its evaluation, and risks associated with it. Learn how it differs from bottom-up thinking and understand its applications in real-life scenarios.
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