Critical Thinking: Arguments & Cognitive Biases

• The notes cover basics, criteria for adequacy of theories, cognitive biases, arguments, and identifying conclusions.

Basics

• A belief is a proposition that someone accepts as true.
• Critical thinking involves analyzing information to form a judgment.
• An argument is a set of statements, where one or more premises are offered as support for a conclusion.
• A premise is a statement that is offered as evidence or reasons in support of a conclusion.
• A conclusion is the statement that is claimed to follow from the premises of an argument.

Criteria for Adequacy of Theories

• Simplicity in a theory refers to the number of assumptions it makes; a simpler theory makes fewer assumptions.
• Scope in a theory refers to the amount of different phenomena explained by a theory; the broader amount of phenomena explained, the wider the scope.
• Testability in a theory refers to whether the theory makes predictions that can be confirmed or disconfirmed through observation or experiment.
• Conservatism in a theory refers to how well a theory fits with established beliefs or theories.
• Fruitfulness in a theory refers to the degree to which a theory suggests new ideas for future research.
• The theory about birds being cameras spying is evaluated to see how simple, conservative, and testable it is.

Cognitive Biases

• Increased flood insurance purchases after Hurricane Katrina illustrates the availability heuristic, where recent or vivid events distort risk perception.
• Frank's reluctance to hire Henry demonstrates prejudice and possibly confirmation bias, as Frank assumes Henry's slowness based on his being a regular squirrel.
• Selene's exclusive focus on urban planning as a cause for depression exemplifies confirmation bias, as she ignores other possible explanations to support her own theory.
• Henrietta's "I'm just no good at Spanish" statement after getting a C shows overgeneralization, taking one instance to create a sweeping negative conclusion.
• Tufan's reaction to being cut off in traffic illustrates the fundamental attribution error, attributing others' behavior to character while excusing one's own similar actions.

Arguments and Non-Arguments

• Listing parliamentary liberal democracies is an example of reporting information, not presenting an argument.
• The statement about Galileo and the Leaning Tower of Pisa illustrates a valid deductive argument based on an authoritative source.
• The case of rats and poison presents an inductive argument regarding their ability to adapt and avoid poison.
• Claiming Dachshunds are ideal for small children is an inductive argument.
• The mentioning of Internet Service Providers constitutes reporting information.
• The statements about snakes consist of background information.
• The rise in rude behavior being caused by the pandemic is an example of an argument based on correlation/causation.

Find the Conclusion

• The conclusion argues for reducing spending on space exploration, driven by the enemy's military buildup and the need to purchase military equipment.

Explore critical thinking, focusing on beliefs, arguments, and premises. Learn about the criteria for evaluating theories, including simplicity, scope and testability. Understand common cognitive biases and how to identify conclusions in arguments.