Week 3 09_09 & 4 09_16.pdf

Lecture 09/09 - Loss of China and Red Scare Initial US assessment of China in 1979 - Frustratio...

Lecture 09/09 - Loss of China and Red Scare Initial US assessment of China in 1979 - Frustration China would be poor for decades regions more important other · , ↳ Declining US involvement in China 1949-50 The Red Scare(early 1950s) - some politicians exploited paranoia of Cold War claimed that Communist influtuated govt = - Narrative on China CCP victory was disaster · US trators stabbed GMD in back US should help Taiwan ↳ US leaders respond by doing more to contain communism in Chinat Asia ↳ growing support for Taiwan - The Korean War (1950-1953) Context · 1910-1945 : Korea was Japanese colong 1945 partition Soviets in north America in south - : - , - 1949 : US + Soviets withdraw -North + South Korea facing each other /dictatorships poor) + · June 1950 : North attack NK convinced Stalin to authorize invasion - · US response US led UN force to defend SK - 11M. troops (0 S M American. troops) led by MacArthur - Initial US strategy Incheon Landing · Reconquest of Sh Push into NK Skyrocketing mil/eco aid to regional anti-communist regimes - US deployed 7th fleet to protect Taiwan · US supported France vs China-backed insurgency in Indochina · US alliance with Japan  China's approach to Korean War - Mao's initial hesistation to enter the war priority was to fight China's poverty · worried about China's insufficient war supplies - Why intervene ? US getting too close to China's border · Stalin promised to help China equipment training, limited air support , Consequences of China entry = Chinese toops overwhelmed US/UN troops China conquered most of Korean peninsula March 1951 stalemate · stalemate Spring1951 : new US strategy break · to Why MacArthur fired into China · MacArthur wanted to expand war · wanted to use nulhes wanted toinvolvea a se · ↳ Mac fired , replaced with Ridgway- made gains against China/NK US efforts to isolate China - · Did not recognize PRC · Imposed severe trade embargo (with allies) Ensured China would not access intl institutions ↳ Taiwan at UN security Council · End of Korean war - 1951-1955: deadlocked negotiations (POWs) - But Stalin's death helped line ↳ July1953 Armistice , divided slightly above original Korean War for China Consequence of of resistance - For China &NK : war example - But : caused IM deaths Hurt China's economic growth Hardened China's enmity with US/Japan/West Increased China's dependency on Soviets Consequences for US - Stalemate setback for military -Nearly 37600 deaths - $67B Cold War buildup : obsession about communist advances skyrocketing military budget (x4)( skyrocketing # of security commitments >Taiwan , Vietnam Su , - Eisenhower China, Taiwain , · Eisenhower's lack of interest in China (1953-1961) PRC not a priority - Taiwan : Chiang too corrupt desire to dangerous - , reconquer China was Chinalobby forced Eisenhower to do - more emerged from red scare journalists lobbyists Congress , , wanted more support for Taiwan Initial US policies · Backe Taiwan raids in China - - Assisted France in fight against China-backed Indochina - SEATO : anti-communist alliance in Asia - us belief in domino theory · 1st Taiwan Strait Crisis (1954-SS) Chiang provocations - 50000 nationalist troops on Taiwan's offshore islands ↳ slides · 2nd Taiwan Strait Crisis (1958) · 1958 : 100, 000 Taiwanese troops deployed on offshore islands ↳ China's barrage on islands · Outcome - US considered nuclear strikes to Taiwan - ↑ assistance - China developed nuclear weapons Lecture 09/11 - Sino-Soviet Split (1959-1960) Causes Mao's grievances - Found Khrushchev too soft (against Us) · Resented the Soviet Union's lack of support to China (against Taiwan) Disliked+ departed from economic planning Soviet-style · ↳ Great Leap Forward Claimed China's leadership over global communist movement Khruscher's grievances : Criticized China's recklessness (Taiwan + Great Leap · Resented China's ambition to lead global communist movement · Consequences · Soviets withdrew advisersa terminated aid - - Growing Sino-Soviet competition in Communist world a third world  countries' border dispute Degradation of the two - But took us - decade to exploit these divisions a - US-China Relations under JFK + LBJ · US threat perception : - Soviet Union more powerful but China more radical · Kennedy's goals (1961-1963) - Counter China in Third World - Support Taiwan's raids into mainland China Support India during 1962 Sino-Indian War - Kennedy's problems China support to commie insurgents in South Vietnam - China's progress toward nuclear weapons - Johnson China (1963-1969) · & Enormous concern after China's 1st nuclear test (1964) Mao's incendiary rhetoric USwar t entanglement in Vietnam = 1964 : Tonkin Resolution(official beginningcommunists · us objective: support South Vietnam vs Major quagmire reputational blow for US + predicament largely aggravated by China · Dec 1968 : 536000 US troops · Why did China Support NV - shared commedone nar bre se Competition with Soviet Union · China support - · Economic + military · 1965-68: 320, 000 troops threatened to intervene if US into NV ↳ Johnson : deepening shadow of communist China - US-China opening Mao's interest in rapprochement with US (late 1960s · caused by Cultural Revolution (1966-76) Domestic instability - · Mar asked red guards to shake CCP up ↳ massive instability - China increasingly encircled + isolated US in South Vietnam Japan's economic resurgence Tensions with Soviet Union · Taiwan'shostility. Mao(Aug 1969) surrounded by enemies : India's hostility  China's tensions with Soviet Union - 1964-69 over 4000 Sino-Soviet border skirmishes · : 1969 : Sino-Soviet War - Border conflict · Nixon's interest in rapprochement in China · - Encircle Soviet Union - Make China press NV to negotiate peace - Reduce US dependency on Japan - Ensure Nixon re-election in 1972 ambition: incentivize China to democratize t open -Long-term economy · US-China opening (1971-72) July 71 Kissinger's : secret trip - Nixon's visit May 72: - - Ford, Carter, US-China Normalization Process Ford Presidency (74-77) : obstacles to US-China normalization - In US: Ford's weakness · April 75 : fall of su hurt US prestige Economic difficulties · Pro-Taiwan lobby opposed · - In China: Mao's decline+ death (1976) Domestic Unrest (Deng Xiaoping US radicals) ↳ · Carter Presidency (1977-81) Carter's initial Skepticism believed Nixon was ass-kissing China - : - Difficult political context for US Post-Vietnam War trauma · · Economic slowdown Internal disagreement - Secstate Vance : privilege the Soviet Union · NSA Brzezinski Use China to contain the Soviets : · Carter pushed for US-China normalization - Official US-China normalization (Jan 1979) · During Deng Xiaoping's visit - US recognized PRC as sole govt of China - US ended formal ties with Taiwan - US ended US-Taiwan defense pact - US Congress passed Taiwan Relation Act (1979) -US would treat Taiwan as would informally sovereign country Any military action by PRC concern us - US would offer defense to enable Taiwan to maintain self-defense - capability  US-China coop against Soviets (1971-81) - Acceleration + computers · US sold jet enginesintel with China · shared military electronic 1979 : US opened listening stations in China - spy on Soviets 1979 : following Soviet invasion of Afghan (Dec 1979) US sold non-lethal defense to China · - Mutual mistrust 1973: US military aimed to be ready against PRC/communist attack Lecture 09/16 (1981-1989) Reagan+ China - General stance friend of Taiwan Reagan - of - criticized US-China normalization 79 about China's strategic value -Most advisers were skeptical - Continued to engage China · China under Deng Xiaoping (1978 - Gradual opening to foreign trade/FDI/technologies/studes - US-China trade Volume (1971-88): 0 + $13B Long-term business prospects - "Hide your strength + bick your time" · China's power potential could scare others - block China's rise ↳ Don't do anything to inspire fear > - humility compromise negotiation , , US and China still mistrusted each other US reluctance to supply China with sensitive items - US hesistant to share military + dual-use tech it would 1982: US said gradually reducea terminate arms sales regional · to Taiwan as security conditions allowed - China's reorientation away from US feared Reagan's military buildup · ↳ Mid-1980s : China initiated rapprochement with Soviet Union - Bush + Tiananmen Massacre Origins of protest · Context (1980s) : China's opening to the world - -April 15 1989 : death of CCP head Hu Yaobang , (supportive of protests) ↳ Rallies in 80 major cities IM protestors war Tiananmen Square (Beijing June 4 1989 : Massacre/Incident - , Death to 11 · - 200 (China's government)  - 400-800 (Kristof) 1000 (Amnesty Intl - ~ - /British Ambassador 10000 Donald Tiananmen Video · - Hu mourners - protestors = students called "land conspirators" - > Tiananmen hunger strike - - Students asked to disperse goddess democracy of - warning to leave2 military How did Bush react · How Beijing deals with its citizen is an internal affair - Why mild response US did not want China to turn to Soviet Union - - us need · To what extent were protests about democratization -Some protestors referred to Western democracies -Goddess of Democracy - US/West : China massacred democracy movement some denouncingcorruption democracy Kollegegrads ( %) · wanted more ora · How did China perceive protest - Internal divisions - Deng saw as threat to regime a US plot to destabilize China West wants to westernize + divide Jiang - : CCP report : foreign involvement - - US/UK/Taiwan provided financial support · Did protests threaten regime Tiananmen 1 mile away from - : CCP leaders - attempted humiliate regime to Observers feared China's disintegration - Clinton+ "Butchers of Beijing" (1993-2001) - Early stance · -Criticized Bush for coddling butchers of Beijing - 1993 : US set conditions to give China MFN trade status · free immigration preserve Tibet · release of political · no prison labor access to· prisons for HR org religious prisoners Clinton changed for business reasons US multinationals lobbying - 1994 : US extended China's MFN status wo - conditions · Tensions over Taiwan (1993-2001) - 1987 : Taiwan democracy · 3rd Taiwan Strait Crisis (1995-1996) · President Lee hinted at independence · China military exercises near Taiwan · US deployed aircraft carriers in Taiwan Strait Clinton : consequence for China if attack on Taiwan · · humiliated China Consequences Commitment to keep at least 100, 000 troops in Asia · 1997 : US-Japan alliance Military rapprochement with other Asian states · US restrictions on dual-use tech transfer to China · other dimensions us pressures on China on HR - 1988 : Clinton admonished on Chinese TV · Booming - economic ties 1999 : US authorized China to join WTO · $13B- $116B 1989-200 trade deficit Growing · Accusations of industrial espionage -Growing people ties · 1970-2000 : 430000 to 3M Chinese immigrants · 1990s : 54000 Chinese students annually in US universities  Lecture 09/18 Bush Jr 9/11 China (2001 2009) - - , , · stance before 9/11 - PRC as strategic competitor "do whatever if takes" to help Taiwan · FP.3E incident aircraft collided with Chinese plane American reconnaissance China Kept American crew t studied aircraft's - tech · After 9/11 - China supported US invasion of Afghanistan - shared intelligence · fought togethe terrorist networks - In exchange US supported China's repression : of Muslim terrorists Growing economic ties to China · + 416 % -Skyrocketing US exports faster - Chinese export grew - China market not fully open Growing US concerns about military buildup China's (2001) China was possible military competitor Pentagon - : outdated USNSS (2002) China pushing advanced military capabilities - - : - China's growing military budget $4SB in 2007 (us US $481B) : Persistent tensions onTaiwan · - Multiple US arms sales packages to deter a Chinese attack · China's mistrust of US - Hu Jintao : West wants to subjugate+ divide China - Peaceful rise narrative: goal : reassure the world about China's intentions to prevent pushback -Growing attempts to de-legitimize American hegemony believed it was attempts tocontain a us · Hu Jintao : China opposes hegemonism · condemned US spread of economic/political model , war in Frag & Afghan, growing US Asian alliances ↳ Chinatraded with Frag  - Cooperation with Anti-US states Russia : , Iran NK , - Obama & Pivot to Asia (2009-2017) · Context : America's relative decline 2008 Financial Crisis - Came from US financial system : China fared well · Costs of War on Terror - US-China attempts to cooperate Collaboration to defuse Great Financial Crisis - Obama (2011) : US welcomes China - Obama+Xi (2013) : called for new model of relations Enduring HR spats (Feb 2010 : Obama met with Dalai Lama) · : US concerns about China's economic rise · 2010 : China 2nd economy expected to overtake by largest 202. - , Ustrade - deficit (2013) $319B : - Obama pushback · Condemned China's violation of trade rules · Hardened response to China's industrial espionage +IP violations economies closer to US to isolate China Tried to draw Asiant European ↳ Trans-Pacific Partnership , Transatlantic Treaty Investment Partnership · Pivot to Asia videos military countering "not to threaten " - , convince China to "play by the rules"- especially - with South China Sea - any disturbance in region could upset us trade China US saw it as preventing China's rise + encircling - Obama's pirot Redeploy 60% of US naval assets to the Pacific - Bolster US alliances -Japan Aus -. Bolster US regional partnerships+ India Vietnam - , Air-Sea Battle doctrine : plan to dismantle China's defenses in case of was Implementation of the pirot & 2014 Ukraine Crisis Not as fast as expected (crises in ME Europe) - China saw it as aggressive US strategy - China's growing assertiveness  in South & East China seas growing claims : 2010 - - 2014 : China built+ militarized artificial islands in South China Sea The China Reckoning Narrative - A narrative that dominates since 2017 · 1971 did not transform China US engagement since - Chinaexpatedeconomizopenness/intlinstitution support/military restaas State led economy - political repression - military expansion/modernization ↳ US should end its, engagement t adopt a much harder policy · Potential counter-arguments - China is much more benign today ↳ no war since 1979 no lethal mil , force abroad since 1988 Hardening US policy against China may be impossible - · Economic peer · Quasi-tech peer · 4X pop World's largest market - Harder policy could be counter productive · Economic interdependence risk of war · need to tackle global challenges together