Unit 3: Will Living Longer Threaten Our Lifestyle? PDF

‫ קורסים מקוונים ללמידה עצמאית‬:‫אנגלית אקדמית‬ ‫ בסיסי‬:‫רמה‬ Unit 3 : Will Living Longer Threaten our Lifestyle? :3 ‫יחידה‬ Will living longer threat...

‫ קורסים מקוונים ללמידה עצמאית‬:‫אנגלית אקדמית‬ ‫ בסיסי‬:‫רמה‬ Unit 3 : Will Living Longer Threaten our Lifestyle? :3 ‫יחידה‬ Will living longer threaten our lifestyle? ANALYSIS By Steve Schifferes BBC News Online economics reporter More elderly couples are cohabiting A fierce debate among demographers about trends in mortality could have major implications for pension funds, health care providers, and the government. 1 The normally sedate world of demography has been convulsed by a passionate debate about whether we will all continue to live longer, which took place at a conference sponsored by the International Longevity Centre-UK and the British Society for Population Studies. 2 During the last century, life expectancy expanded in rich countries from around 50 to over 75 years, as public health measures like vaccinations and antibiotics greatly reduced deaths in childhood. As a result of that change - and a dramatic drop in the average number of children that women have in their lifetime - all major industrial countries are facing an ageing population. In the UK, for example, the number of elderly people is expected to increase from 13% of the population today to one in five (20%) over the next twenty years - and change will be even faster in countries like Japan and Italy. 3 But a major question is whether that population will remain healthy and productive, or whether the growing number of old people will prove an unsupportable burden on society. Pension funds are already increasing the contributions they demand from current members, because they fear that when employees retire they will live far longer than originally thought - threatening to bankrupt the pension scheme. And governments around the world are Fewer elderly people concerned that the rising cost of state pensions and may enter nursing health care for the elderly will put serious strains on their homes in the future fiscal systems. 1  ‫ קורסים מקוונים ללמידה עצמאית‬:‫אנגלית אקדמית‬ ‫ בסיסי‬:‫רמה‬ Unit 3 : Will Living Longer Threaten our Lifestyle? :3 ‫יחידה‬ Reversing the gains 4 Professor Jay Olshansky, of the University of Illinois, controversially argues that the trend in lower mortality that characterised the last century is unlikely to last much longer into this century. He points out that the gains to mortality from saving babies and children is much greater than the relative gains if we were able to cure the illnesses of old age, cancer and heart disease. And he points out that even if we cured all five leading causes of death for the elderly (including cancers and heart diseases), life expectancy would only rise by an additional 10 years at best. He argues that there is no longer any improvement in the life expectancy of people who reach age 65, and that the long-term prognosis is for rising mortality, due to a "pandemic of obesity" and a rise in infectious diseases like Aids. And he criticises the US Social Security Administration, which administers the US old age pension system, for dramatically over-estimating the likely decreases in mortality in the next 75 years - which, if true, would make it much harder to fund the programme. Living longer - and better 5 His point of view was disputed at the ILC-UK conference by a leading Italian demographer, Graziella Caselli, of the University of Rome. She says that there is no evidence in Europe that the long-term decline in mortality is going into reverse. Instead, advances in health care - and the decline of smoking - are leading to sharp decreases in death rates from lung cancer and heart disease, especially in Italy and France. The UK, however, is lagging behind the trend, despite the NHS's * recent 0F More people may choose emphasis on treating cancer and heart disease. to work part-time after retirement 6 Professor Caselli suggested that the reversal of such a trend in the US may have more to do with the problems of the US health care system (for example, 15% of the population, including some groups most vulnerable to infectious diseases, have no health insurance). And she argued that the good news was that people were both living longer, and being able to enjoy a disease-free old age more often. 7 Her findings were echoed by research carried out by Jenny Gierveld, of the Free University, Amsterdam, into the living arrangements of older people. She found an increasing number of widowed or divorced people over 55 form new relationships and either live together as a couple, or "live apart and together", keeping their own accommodation but spending most of their time together. Such a trend, which is in its early stages in the UK, would mean that the demand for long-term institutional care for the elderly would decline more than previously * NHS = National Health Service 2  ‫ קורסים מקוונים ללמידה עצמאית‬:‫אנגלית אקדמית‬ ‫ בסיסי‬:‫רמה‬ Unit 3 : Will Living Longer Threaten our Lifestyle? :3 ‫יחידה‬ thought. But it would imply that the housing demand - especially for smaller units, and sheltered housing - was likely to be higher than expected. The conference on "Data Needs for Planning an Ageing Society" was sponsored by the British Society for Population Studies and the International Longevity Centre-UK, which announced the launch of its Longevity Expert Network, a searchable data base of research on ageing and longevity issues. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3660597.stm From: BBC News at bbc.co.uk/news 3