Topics 9 and 10-Climate change and Conflict_QN.pdf

Environmental Degradation, Climate Change, and Conflict 1  A warm-up Use QR code Use link https://www.menti.co m/almxby8thg72 2 3 4 ...

Environmental Degradation, Climate Change, and Conflict 1  A warm-up Use QR code Use link https://www.menti.co m/almxby8thg72 2 3 4  5 Source: Mizutori/Guha-Sapir, Economic Losses, Poverty and Disasters 1998-2017 Enter climate change: Are we heading towards disaster? Climate change is an “all-encompassing threat” to human health, to global food supply, and to peace and security (Kofi Annan, 2006) Darfur is the first of many climate wars (Ban Ki-Moon on various occasions in 2007-08) Climate change is an “urgent, serious, and growing threat” as more frequent droughts and crop failures “breed hunger and conflict” (President and Nobel laureate Barack Obama, UN, September 22, 2009) There is evidence that the 2007-2010 drought contributed to conflict in Syria (Kelley et al, PNAS 2015) 6 The environment-conflict nexus the neo-Malthusian model 7 The environment-conflict nexus (cont.) It’s complicated … Source: Buhaug et al. 2008 8 Mechanisms from climate change to conflict: Economy Step 1: Climate change (CC) → Economic hardship − CC can cause general economic disruption that reduces consumption − CC can trigger costly adaptation measures to protect against future adverse climatic conditions /extreme weather events that reduce investment Step 2: Economic hardship → Conflict − low opportunity cost of rebellion − grievances (relative deprivation) − weaker state capacity to “invest in people” and to “provide for the people” 9 Drought Trends and Low Intensity Civil Conflict, 1989-2014 Palmer Drought Severity Index (2005–2014) and location of armed conflict events (1989–2014). Results are screened for countries with more than one recorded armed conflict event per year. 10 Data: NOAA PDSI and UCDP GEO v17.1. Koubi (2019) Climate change as a threat multiplier: Drought, GDP per capita, and low-level conflict 11 Some first takeaways Strong evidence that climate-driven economic downturns can lead to conflict in specific context and space: i.e., in countries and regions which are poor and are dependent on agriculture (von Uexkull 2016) But: The evidence is generated from specific countries, regions, and problems, such as failed harvests and increasing food prices Would climate-induced lower agricultural production and higher food prices lead to conflict if they were well managed by capable governments? E.g., Syria 12 Climate-driven economic downturns and conflict in democactic vs non-democratic countries 13 The environment-conflict nexus (cont.) It’s complicated … Source: Buhaug et al. 2008 14 Mechanisms from climate change to conflict: Migration No shortage of political and media interest in the climate change-migration-conflict nexus 15 Challenges in disentangling the relationship Image result for pictures from aleppo ➔ ➔ BUT, majority of existing empirical evidence: a. is anecdotal or confined to only one (or a few) specific cases (e.g., Syria) → limited generalizability b. is derived from aggregated levels of analysis, i.e., country → ecological fallacy 16 Research question: Under what conditions does climate induced migration lead to conflict? Image result for pictures from aleppo ? 17 New displacements associated with disasters (265 million people) versus conflict (81 million people) Source: IDMC 2019 18 World Bank Report (2018/2021) 19  An energizer Use QR code Use link https://www.menti.co m/alcdqhsif3jd 20 Some trends The great majority of people do not migrate across borders; much larger numbers migrate within countries (IOM, 2024) Most forcibly displaced people continue to remain within their countries: Internally Displaced Persons account for 57 per cent of the global forcibly displaced population (UNHCR, 2024) 60 per cent of migrants (and 80 per cent of refugees and IDPs) are drawn to cities in search for safety, shelter and housing, increased access to basic, social and administrative services and better livelihood opportunities (UN Habitat, 2024) 21 Studying the environment-conflict nexus at the microlevel From the perspective of residents in host communities: – Are “environmental migrants” more deserving of asylum status than other types of migrants? From the perspective of “environmental migrants”: – Does experiencing a certain type of environmental disaster increase a person’s conflict preparedness? High level of grievance among migrants and host residents increases likelihood of conflict. 22 Spilker et al. 2020, Attitudes of urban residents toward environmental migration in Vietnam and Kenya. Nature Climate Change See slides from the other presentation 23 Conclusion Most likely, YES! 24 Implications for policymakers ▪ National and local authorities should ▪ provide immediate assistance and basic social services to environmental migrants in urban settings ▪ facilitate permanent solutions by fostering their socioeconomic and political integration and assist them in managing their long-term grievances ▪ Efforts should be made to ▪ avert the need for climate-induced migration in the first place by intervening at the earliest stage possible ▪ sustainable development should strengthen the coping capacity of communities affected by climatic changes. 25 Implications for scholars specify and examine the conditions under which climate- induced economic shocks lead to conflict: when and where examine countries, which regularly experience adverse climatic conditions but not conflict in order to properly understand how climatic conditions and conflict are connected: avoid a) selecting on the dependent variable and b) the ‘streetlight effect’ study the causal mechanisms that link climate change to conflict: how and why 26