Structured Analytic Techniques Primer (2009) PDF

This primer, prepared by the US Government in March 2009, highlights structured analytic techniques to improve intelligence analysis. It focuses on challenging judgments, identifying mental mindsets, stimulating creativity, and managing uncertainty. The techniques are grouped into diagnostic, contra...

This primer, prepared by the US Government in March 2009, highlights structured analytic techniques to improve intelligence analysis. It focuses on challenging judgments, identifying mental mindsets, stimulating creativity, and managing uncertainty. The techniques are grouped into diagnostic, contrarian, and imaginative thinking techniques, each serving different purposes in the analytic process. Introduction Highlights structured analytic techniques for intelligence analysis. Techniques help challenge judgments, identify mindsets, stimulate creativity, and manage uncertainty. Not a comprehensive overview but focuses on structuring thinking for difficult questions. The “Mind-Set” Challenge Analysts face complexity, incomplete information, and human cognitive limitations. Mental models influence information acceptance and memory. Analysts must be self-conscious about their reasoning processes. Common biases include perceptual biases, biases in evaluating evidence, estimating probabilities, and perceiving causality. Key Assumptions Check Useful at the beginning of an analytic project. Helps identify and review key assumptions. Example: 2002 DC Sniper Case. Method: Review current analytic line, articulate premises, challenge assumptions, refine the list. Quality of Information Check Evaluates completeness and soundness of information sources. Ongoing process to ensure confidence in analytic judgments. Method: Develop a database, review sources, check for corroboration, reexamine dismissed information. Indicators or Signposts of Change  Tracks events, monitors targets, spots trends, and warns of changes. Useful for tracking developments over time. Method: Identify hypotheses, create lists of expected activities, regularly review and update indicators. Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) Identifies alternative explanations and evaluates evidence to disconfirm hypotheses. Effective for controversial issues with large data. Method: Brainstorm hypotheses, list evidence, prepare a matrix, refine hypotheses, focus on disproving hypotheses. Devil’s Advocacy Challenges a single, strongly held view or consensus. Useful for critically important intelligence questions. Method: Outline main judgment, select assumptions to challenge, review information, highlight evidence for alternative hypotheses. Team A/Team B Uses separate teams to contrast competing hypotheses. Appropriate for issues with strong competing views. Method: Identify hypotheses, form teams, review information, structure arguments, present findings. High-Impact/Low-Probability Analysis Highlights unlikely events with major consequences. Sensitizes analysts to potential impacts of low-probability events. Method: Define high-impact outcome, devise explanations, identify indicators, consider deflecting factors. “What If?” Analysis Assumes an event has occurred and explains how it might happen. Challenges strong mindsets and focuses on developments enabling the outcome.  Method: Assume event, select triggers, develop argumentation, identify pathways, generate indicators. Brainstorming Generates new ideas and concepts. Useful at the beginning or critical points of a project. Method: Structured process with divergent and convergent thinking phases. Outside-In Thinking Identifies external factors shaping an issue. Useful at the conceptualization of a project. Method: List key forces, assess impact, determine relevance. Red Team Analysis Models behavior of an adversary. Avoids mirror-imaging and considers different cultural and personal experiences. Method: Build a team, react as the adversary, develop policy papers, present findings. Alternative Futures Analysis Explores multiple ways a situation can develop. Useful in highly complex and uncertain situations. Method: Develop focal issue, brainstorm forces, select critical forces, form futures matrix, generate stories, identify indicators. Strategies for Using Structured Analytic Techniques Techniques can be used at multiple points in an analytic project. Starting out: Brainstorming, assumptions checks, outside-in thinking, high impact/low probability assessment. Hypothesis testing: Contrarian techniques, red team effort, review intelligence gaps. Final check: Review key assumptions, brainstorming, devil’s advocacy, identify key indicators.