Theoretical Projections for the Future of Terrorism PDF

Theoretical Projections for the Future of Terrorism LU I S E M I L I O M O R E N O H E R N A N D E Z P R O F E S S O R: T RAV I S WA LT H A L L WHAT DOES THE FUTURE HOLD? The future of terrorism is expected to be shaped by technological advancements, evolving geopolitical dynamics, and the adapta...

Theoretical Projections for the Future of Terrorism LU I S E M I L I O M O R E N O H E R N A N D E Z P R O F E S S O R: T RAV I S WA LT H A L L WHAT DOES THE FUTURE HOLD? The future of terrorism is expected to be shaped by technological advancements, evolving geopolitical dynamics, and the adaptability of extremist groups. The modern terrorism landscape is defined by emerging threats that exploit technology and new forms of warfare: Cyber-terrorism Bio-terrorism Lone wolves Weaponized Technologies  Cyber-terrorism Cyber-terrorism refers to extremist groups using digital technology to harm key infrastructure, financial systems, and communication networks. Targets frequently include power grids, transportation systems, water sources, and government entities, banks. This form of attack is especially appealing to terrorists because it may be carried out remotely and anonymously, making identification and counterattack difficult. May be used to expose delicate information from governments. Examples of tactics: Ransomware attacks prevent access to critical systems until a fee is paid. Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) is the process of overloading networks, causing outages. Data breaches involve stealing sensitive information for blackmail or operational planning. Potential impact: o Breach of national security might undermine public trust in government. oFinancial disruptions have resulted in prolonged economic instability. oCoordinated attacks on healthcare, energy, or transportation networks result in widespread pandemonium.  Bio-terrorism Bio-terrorism is the purposeful release of biological agents like viruses, bacteria, or toxins to cause illness or death in humans, animals, and plants. Extremists may use developments in biotechnology to create infections that are more transmissible or resistant to treatments. Examples of tactics include: Spreading diseases like as anthrax, smallpox, or synthetic viruses in crowded locations. Pathogens contaminate food sources and water systems. Using drones to disseminate biological agents across wide areas. Potential Impact: High mortality rates and overburdened healthcare systems. Economic upheaval caused by quarantines and travel bans. Long-term psychological and societal trauma causes dread and distrust in institutions. In 2001, letters with powdered anthrax spores were mailed in the United States, causing 22 infections, including 12 in mail handlers, and 5 deaths.  Lone wolves Lone-wolf attacks occur when individuals act without direct directives or formal affiliations to a terrorist organization. These people are frequently radicalized online, persuaded by extreme propaganda, and driven by personal grievances. Lone wolf attacks, or attacks by individuals unaffiliated with a terrorist group, are becoming more common. In the mid-1970s, unaffiliated attacks made up 5% of terrorist attacks, but by 2014 to 2018, they made up 70%. Example: US army major Nidal Malik Hasan, who is accused of a mass shooting at Fort Hood in which 13 people died and 30 were wounded ( Reason: religious. Hasan's documents included the acronym "SoA", which is short for "Soldier of Allah". He wrote that he should not defend any constitution over Islamic commandments. He also wrote that he wanted to help people attain heaven through the mercy of Allah.) Examples of tactics include: omass shootings in public places such as schools, malls, or religious locations. oVehicle ramming attacks. oHomemade explosives and other homemade weaponry.  Lone wolves Challenges of Detection: A lack of communication networks results in fewer options for intelligence interception. The radicalization process is frequently conducted in private, via social media or encrypted channels. Attackers may act without any planning, giving law police little time to interfere. Potential impact: Fear and insecurity in everyday environments. Attacks are becoming more difficult to profile and avoid. Law enforcement faces increased pressure to monitor specific risks while maintaining civil liberties.  Weaponized Technologies Terrorists use advanced technologies to carry out intricate attacks. Drones, artificial intelligence (AI), and autonomous weaponry enable extremists to cause maximum damage while requiring minimal physical presence. Examples of tactics: Drones are used to transport explosives, spy on targets, and convey goods. AI-powered weapons are guided missiles or autonomous drones that have been programmed to locate and strike targets. 3D printing: The creation of untraceable firearms or components for high-tech weapons. Potential impact: oPrecision and automation can lead to more deadly strikes. oAdvanced weapons are accessible to small organizations or individuals. oNew ethical and legal issues in countering weaponized artificial intelligence and drones. Case Studies: In 2018, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was purportedly targeted by drones carrying explosives, highlighting the potential of this technology in terrorist attacks.  Media use The emergence of the internet has changed the way terrorists communicate. By using videos, pictures, and posts to propagate compelling messaging that supports their ideology and goals, these organizations use platforms to target susceptible people. They use encrypted channels for planning and operational security, and they establish online forums to encourage unity among followers. Social media also makes it possible to spread false information, support fundraising initiatives, and spread counter- narratives against opponents. Its global reach has the potential to radicalize individuals across boundaries and inspire lone-wolf attacks by motivating independent activities. Examples: 1. Propaganda Videos: High-quality videos of attacks or ideological messages are extensively distributed to motivate and recruit. 2. Social media campaigns: Using hashtags and trends to distribute messages and gain followers. For example, IVolunteer reported that nearly two-thirds of extremists used Facebook to communicate their views and encourage action between 2005 and 2016. In 2021, FBI Director Christopher Wray compared the spread of extremism on social media to foreign disinformation campaigns. 3. Encrypted Messaging Apps: Platforms like Signal and WhatsApp are utilized to facilitate secure communication between members and supporters. Conclusion In conclusion, the theoretical projections for the future of terrorism suggest a complex and evolving landscape shaped by technological advancements, sociopolitical dynamics, and usage of new technologies. As terrorist organizations increasingly adapt to the digital age, employing sophisticated tactics, new science to create harmful substances, attacks with different technologies, hacking, and leveraging social media platforms for recruitment and propaganda, the nature of threats will likely become more decentralized and individualized, with potential for lone-wolf attacks and small, autonomous cells. Furthermore, ideological motivations may shift in response to global events, leading to the emergence of new forms of extremism.  References Fairleigh Dickinson University. (2023). Cybersecurity and Cyber Terrorism. Fairleigh Dickinson University Online. https://online.fdu.edu/program-resources/cybersecurity-and-cyber-terrorism/ Rathish, B., Pillay, R., Wilson, A., & Pillay, V. V. (2023, March 27). Comprehensive Review Of Bioterrorism. PubMed; StatPearls Publishing. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK570614/ Michael, G. (2012). Lone wolf terror and the rise of leaderless resistance. Vanderbilt University Press. ‌Increase in self-radicalised “lone wolf” attackers: 2019 Global Terrorism Index. (2020, November 17). Vision of Humanity. https://www.visionofhumanity.org/increase-in-self-radicalised-lone-wolf-attackers-2019-global-terroris m-index/ Emerging Technologies in Terrorism: A Report from NATO’s COE Defence Against Terrorism. (2024, March 7). US Army War College - Publications. https://publications.armywarcollege.edu/News/Display/Article/3706619/emerging-technologies-in-terro rism-a-report-from-natos-coe-defence-against-terr/ Virginia Commonwealth University. (2023, February 28). Social Media and Political Extremism. Onlinewilder.vcu.edu; Virginia Commonwealth University. https://onlinewilder.vcu.edu/blog/political- extremism/