Session 1 PDF - International Relations

Pierre THENARD. Session 1, 12/09/2023. The current international landscape : the New World disorder IR chronology : 1/ International Relations since the first states were born. Around 2000- 1500 B.C. Tell el Amarna. 2/ Modern period : Westphalian States. International order centered on Europe : h...

Pierre THENARD. Session 1, 12/09/2023. The current international landscape : the New World disorder IR chronology : 1/ International Relations since the first states were born. Around 2000- 1500 B.C. Tell el Amarna. 2/ Modern period : Westphalian States. International order centered on Europe : hegemonies equilibrium of powers mecanics of alliances 🡺 World War I. the US enters the game. Failure of SDN. 3/ Post World War II (1945) bipolar order : US/URSS. UN 4/ Post 1991 « New World Order » (URSS disappears). The unipolar moment with the US as the « hyper-power » (Hubert Vedrine), the « reluctant Sheriff » (Richard Haas) or the « undispensable Nation » (Madeleine Albright). Turning point : the invasion of Iraq by G. W. Bush, 2003-2009. 🡺 American withdrawal (Obama, Trump). The New World Disorder Period of strategic depression, World’s panic. Why ? 1/ American Withdrawal : no more sheriff of the World (« gendarme du monde ») 2/ Multilateralism’s crisis Glooming UN’s 75th birthday. Does’nt fit any more with the multipolar World. + WTO + Bretton Woods Institutions 3/ Lack of an organised and legitimate « concert of Nations » (historical model : Vienna Congress, 1815). Limited role of sub-groups : P5, G7, G20... 🡺 case by case processes (contact group, group of friends of..., historical model : Bosnia in 1994) but no collective approach. Cf. Syria, Libya. The outcome today : we do not have anymore « automatic stabilizers » on the international arena. On the contrary, we face now in crisis management « automatic amplifiers ». Regional crisis become systemic : Syria, Libya, Gulf, South China Sea, Taiwan, Korea, tension Inia/China... Middle East --> Far East Asia Global agreements in charge of strategic international stability are eroding themselves : - disarmement : FNI, New START, NPT, CBW A few counter-examples when coalitions are built between States, civil societies and foundations : COP 21, One Planet Summits. The American Turnaround Trump is neither an aberration neither a parenthesis in US History. 3 guidelines : - Jackson 1829-1837. Unilateralism + isolationism. - Wide conviction : the World International Order created in 1945 works now with a decreasing return for the US. The strategic gain is lower than its cost, especially its financial cost. 🡺 Withdrawals : Paris agreement on climate change, JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), UNESCO... 🡺 - Inverted gamble : Kissinger 1972 (China against USSR) ; Trump (confrontation with China ; compliance with Russia). The COVID-19 has amplified the World’s fragmentation. Deepened polarisation of the international arena around China / US. P5 is no more the P4+1 with a low-profile and mute Chinese representative. The American turnaround has accelerated the Chinese affirmation. 🡺 risk of skidding. Loss of control of the bilateral relationship. In this new context, France is a pivotal actor 2 guidelines : - Multilateralism and cooperative approach - Sovereignty The link between those two pillars : the EU.. Multilateralism for 3 reasons : Practical (it’s not only a humanist vision) : global challenges such as climate change, terrorism, WMD proliferation. Need a global answer. Strategic : multipolarity without multilateral rules would mean mecanically a return to influence zones and confrontation logics. Technologic : North / South fracture, but also US/China fracture. We need common rules about the digital revolution and the associated risks. French digital diplomacy (security of the cyber-space, innovation) = very proactive at the European level. « Alliance pour le multilatéralisme » (Jean-Yves Le Drian + Heiko Mas). Debt cancellation for Africa (G20). European action against extra-territorial sanctions. INSTEX. Reform of the UN. Key word : « opening » (ouverture). Triple :. Opening of the UNSC to the emerging powers such as India, Brasil (+ Japan and Germany), Africa. Opening to the great institutions such as the WB, UA. Opening to the civil societies Fight for the global public goods : cf. COVID. Equal access to the tests, therapies and vaccines.. Second leg, inseparable from the first one : the fight for sovereignty. Driving thread of the next French presidency of the EU (first semester 2022) : Sanitary sovereignty. Food sovereignty. Economic and technologic sovereignty. Speech on the state of the Union. The great challenge of our generation. Historical responsability. Europe cannot be the playground of other powers (cf. 5G). Cannot be weak. No alternative, no middle ground between a Europe prey and a Europe power. But a power of equlibrium, bridge between 3 big areas : Atlantic on the West, Eurasian on the East, African-Middle Eastern on the South. Book mentioned in the course : John Bolton, The Room where it happened, New York, 2020. On the international in Antiquity : COHEN R. and WESTBROOK Raymond, Amarna Diplomacy. The beginnings of international relations, John Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, 2000.