Pevehouse 1.4: The Evolving International System PDF

**Pevehouse 1.4: The Evolving International System** The text emphasizes that the basic structures and principles of international relations are deeply rooted in historical developments. It highlights the importance of reviewing history to understand topics such as the great power system, imperiali...

**Pevehouse 1.4: The Evolving International System** The text emphasizes that the basic structures and principles of international relations are deeply rooted in historical developments. It highlights the importance of reviewing history to understand topics such as the great power system, imperialism, and nationalism. The text briefly reviews key events of the twentieth century, focusing on the post-Cold War era since 1990. It also notes that World War I and World War II, despite occupying only ten years of the twentieth century, significantly shaped the character of the century. These wars were global or hegemonic wars involving almost all major states in an all-out struggle over the future of the international system. They remain key reference points for understanding the world today. **The Two World Wars, 1900-1950** World War I is often seen as a symbol of the tragic irrationality of war. It fascinates scholars because it was a catastrophic conflict that seemed unnecessary and perhaps accidental. After a century of relative peace, the great powers went to war for no clear reason, with some even believing it would be a glorious adventure. However, the immense pain and pointlessness of the war quickly shattered these illusions. The previous major European war, the Franco-Prussian War (1870-1871), had ended quickly and decisively with a clear winner (Germany). People expected World War I to follow a similar pattern, with quick offensives and rapid victories. This belief, known as the "cult of the offensive," led to mobilization plans that escalated a minor crisis into an all-out war after the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand of Austria in 1914. Contrary to expectations, World War I was neither short nor decisive. It bogged down in trench warfare, with horrific conditions worsened by chemical weapons and attempts to starve each other's populations. The Battle of Somme in 1916, for example, resulted in over 600,000 casualties for just 6 miles of territory gained. Russia was the first to crumble, with a revolution in 1917 leading to its withdrawal from the war and the founding of the Soviet Union. The entry of the United States into the war on the allied side in 1917 turned the tide. The Treaty of Versailles in 1919 forced Germany to give up territory, pay reparations, limit its armaments, and admit guilt for the war. German resentment over these harsh terms contributed to Adolf Hitler's rise to power in the 1930s. After World War I, U.S. President Woodrow Wilson led the effort to create the League of Nations, a precursor to the United Nations. However, the U.S. Senate did not approve U.S. participation, and the League proved ineffective. U.S. isolationism, declining British power, and a Russia weakened by revolution left a power vacuum in world politics. The **League of Nations** was established after World War I as a precursor to the United Nations. It achieved some humanitarian successes but was weakened by the absence of U.S. membership and its ineffectiveness in ensuring collective security. In the 1930s, Germany and Japan exploited this power vacuum, leading to aggressive expansionism that contributed to the onset of World War II. Japan had already occupied Taiwan and Korea and gained several German possessions in Asia after World War I. In 1931, Japan occupied Manchuria and later invaded the rest of China in 1937, marking a brutal occupation. Some historians consider 1937 the true start of World War II for this reason. In Europe, Nazi Germany under Hitler rearmed, intervened in the Spanish Civil War, and annexed territories under the pretext of reuniting ethnic Germans. The weak response from the international community and the League of Nations emboldened Hitler. To appease German ambitions, Britain and France agreed in the Munich Agreement of 1938 to let Germany occupy part of Czechoslovakia (known as the Sudetenland). Appeasement has since had a negative connotation in IR because the Munich Agreement seemed only to encourage Hitler\'s further conquests. **Munich Agreement**: A symbol of the failed policy of appeasement, this agreement, signed in 1938, allowed Nazi Germany to occupy a part of Czechoslovakia. Rather than appease German aspirations, it was followed by further German expansions, which triggered World War II. In 1939, Germany's invasion of Poland prompted Britain and France to declare war on Germany. Hitler had signed a nonaggression pact with Stalin but later invaded the Soviet Union in 1941. This offensive eventually failed, with the Soviet Union suffering the most significant losses of World War II. This trauma continues to be a powerful memory that shapes views of IR in Russia and Eastern Europe. The United States joined the war against Germany in 1942, providing crucial weapons and supplies. The U.S. and Britain conducted strategic bombings, including the devastating firebombing of Dresden. In 1944, Allied forces invaded Germany from the west while the Soviets advanced from the east, leading to Germany's surrender. Meanwhile, Japan's expansionism in Southeast Asia led to conflict with the United States. The United States punished Japan by cutting off U.S. oil exports. Japan then destroyed much of the U.S. Navy in a surprise attack at Pearl Harbor (Hawaii) in 1941 and seized desired territories (including Indonesia, whose oil replaced that of the United States). The war culminated in the U.S. dropping nuclear bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945, leading to Japan's surrender. The lessons from the two world wars appear contradictory because they suggest different approaches to preventing conflict. - **Failure of the Munich Agreement (1938)**: The Munich Agreement aimed to appease Hitler by allowing Nazi Germany to occupy part of Czechoslovakia. This policy of appeasement failed, as it only encouraged further aggression, leading many to conclude that a hardline foreign policy, with readiness for war, is necessary to deter aggression and prevent war. - **Hardline Policies Leading to World War I (1914)**: In contrast, the hardline policies and military mobilizations of 1914, driven by the belief that striking first would ensure victory, led to the catastrophic and unnecessary conflict of World War I. This suggests that more conciliatory policies might have prevented the war. The contradiction lies in the fact that a hardline approach seemed necessary to stop aggression in one instance (1938), while it appeared to cause conflict in another (1914). This indicates that the best policy might sometimes be harsh and at other times conciliatory. However, international relations (IR) scholars have not found a simple formula for determining when to use each approach, making it a complex and context-dependent decision. **The Cold War, 1945-1990** The Cold War (1945-1990) was characterized by the rivalry between the United States and the Soviet Union, the two superpowers of the post-World War II era. Each superpower had its ideological mission (capitalist democracy versus communism), alliances, and nuclear arsenals. Europe was divided, with NATO allies on one side and Warsaw Pact allies on the other. Germany was split, with the United States, Britain, and France occupying three-quarters of the country and Berlin, while the Soviet Union occupied the remainder. Crises in Berlin in 1947-1948 and 1961 led to armed confrontations but not war. In 1961, East Germany built the Berlin Wall, symbolizing the division of Europe by the "iron curtain." During the Cold War, despite the hostility between East and West, a stable framework of relations emerged, preventing conflicts from escalating to all-out war between the largest states. Key points include: - **Yalta Conference (1945)**: Western powers acknowledged Soviet influence in Eastern Europe. - **UN Membership**: Most major states joined the UN, maintaining universal membership and adherence to rules, unlike the League of Nations. - **Economic Institutions**: The Soviet bloc did not join Western economic institutions like the IMF. **Cold War**: The hostile relations-punctuated by occasional periods of improvement, or détente-between the two superpowers, the United States and the Soviet Union, during the twentieth century. During the Cold War, the West was primarily concerned that the Soviet Union might gain control of Western Europe, either through invasion or by communists taking power in war-weary countries. This could have unified the industrial base of the Eurasian landmass under one state. Key points include: - **Marshall Plan**: U.S. financial aid to rebuild European economies to counter Soviet influence. - **NATO Alliance**: Created to respond to the threat of Soviet control. - **Military Spending**: Half of the world's military spending was devoted to the European standoff and the nuclear arms race. - **Containment Policy**: The U.S. aimed to halt Soviet expansion on multiple levels (military, political, ideological, economic), influencing its foreign policy for decades. **Containment**: A policy adopted in the late 1940s by which the United States sought to halt the global expansion of Soviet influence on several levels-military, political, ideological, and economic. The Chinese communist revolution in 1949 led to a Sino-Soviet alliance. However, China became fiercely independent in the 1960s after the Sino-Soviet split, opposing Soviet moves toward peaceful coexistence with the United States. Key points include: - **Cultural Revolution**: In the late 1960s, young radicals ran China during this chaotic period. - **U.S.-China Relations**: Feeling threatened by Soviet power, China developed a growing affiliation with the U.S. in the 1970s, starting with President Nixon's visit in 1972, leading to diplomatic relations in 1979. - **Balancing Role**: During the Cold War, China played a balancing role against whichever superpower seemed most threatening at the time. **Sino-Soviet split**: A rift in the 1960s between the communist powers of the Soviet Union and China, fueled by China\'s opposition to Soviet moves toward peaceful coexistence with the United States. The Korean War began in 1950 when communist North Korea attacked U.S.-allied South Korea. The U.S. and its allies, under UN authority, counterattacked and overran most of North Korea. China then sent masses of "volunteers" to assist North Korea, leading to a stalemate near the original border until a 1953 truce ended the fighting. Key points include: - **U.S. and Allies' Counterattack**: Under UN authority after the Soviets walked out of the Security Council. - **Chinese Involvement**: China sent volunteers to help North Korea. - **Stalemate and Truce**: The war bogged down near the original border until a truce in 1953. - **Impact on Relations**: The war hardened U.S. attitudes toward Communism and negatively affected future East-West and U.S.-Chinese relations. After Stalin's death in 1953, the Cold War experienced a temporary thaw. The first summit meeting between superpower leaders occurred in Geneva in 1955, leading to the reconstitution of Austria. However, tensions resurfaced with the Soviet Union's actions in Hungary (1956) and Czechoslovakia (1968), the launch of Sputnik in 1957, and the U-2 spy plane incident in 1960. In Cuba, after Fidel Castro's communist revolution in 1959, the U.S. attempted a counterrevolution with the failed Bay of Pigs invasion in 1961. Key points include: - **Geneva Summit (1955)**: First superpower leaders' meeting, leading to Austria's reconstitution. - **Soviet Actions**: Crushing uprisings in Hungary (1956) and Czechoslovakia (1968). - **Sputnik (1957)**: Soviet missile program alarmed the U.S. - **U-2 Incident (1960)**: Shooting down of a U.S. spy plane, disrupting a summit meeting. - **Bay of Pigs (1961)**: Failed U.S. counterrevolution in Cuba after Castro's revolution. **Summit Meeting**: A meeting between heads of state, as in the Cold War superpower summits between the United States and the Soviet Union or today\'s meetings of the Group of Twenty (G20) on economic coordination. The Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962 was a peak moment of Cold War hostilities when the Soviet Union installed nuclear missiles in Cuba. The Soviet aims were to reduce their strategic nuclear inferiority, counter U.S. missiles in Turkey, and deter another U.S. invasion of Cuba. U.S. leaders found the missiles threatening, and nuclear war was a real possibility. President Kennedy imposed a naval blockade, leading to the Soviet Union backing down and the U.S. promising not to invade Cuba. This crisis led to the signing of the Limited Test Ban Treaty in 1963 and increased cooperation in various areas. Key points include: - **Soviet Missiles in Cuba**: Aimed to counter U.S. missiles in Turkey and deter U.S. invasion. - **U.S. Response**: Naval blockade imposed by President Kennedy. - **Resolution**: Soviet Union removed missiles; U.S. promised not to invade Cuba. - **Aftermath**: Signing of the Limited Test Ban Treaty and increased cooperation. **Cuban Missile Crisis (1962)**: A superpower crisis, sparked by the Soviet Union\'s installation of medium-range nuclear missiles in Cuba, that marks the moment when the United States and the Soviet Union came closest to nuclear war. During the Cold War, the two superpowers often competed for influence in the global South by supporting proxy wars. They typically supplied and advised opposing factions in civil wars, with alignments often being arbitrary. For example, in the 1970s, the United States backed the Ethiopian government while the Soviets supported Somalia. However, after an Ethiopian revolution led the new government to seek Soviet help, the United States switched its support to Somalia. **proxy wars**: Wars in which more powerful states compete with one another by supplying and advising opposing factions without direct intervention. One flaw of U.S. policy during the Cold War was viewing all regional conflicts through an East-West lens. This preoccupation with communism led the U.S. to support unpopular pro-Western governments in less wealthy countries, most disastrously during the Vietnam War in the 1960s. The war divided U.S. citizens and ultimately failed to prevent a communist takeover. The fall of South Vietnam in 1975, combined with setbacks in the Middle East (the 1973 Arab oil embargo and the 1979 overthrow of the U.S.-backed shah of Iran), appeared to signal U.S. weakness. The views of the U.S. during the Cold War were flawed for several reasons: - **East-West Lens**: The U.S. [often viewed regional conflicts solely through the lens of East-West rivalry, missing the local dynamics and complexities](https://thepoliticswatcher.com/pages/articles/us-politics/2024/5/8/flawed-foreign-policy-united-states-cold-war). - **Support for Unpopular Governments**: This preoccupation with communism led the U.S. [to support unpopular pro-Western governments in less wealthy countries, which often lacked legitimacy and popular support](https://thepoliticswatcher.com/pages/articles/us-politics/2024/5/8/flawed-foreign-policy-united-states-cold-war). - **Vietnam War**: The Vietnam War is a prime example where U.S. [involvement failed to prevent a communist takeover and deeply divided American society](https://thepoliticswatcher.com/pages/articles/us-politics/2024/5/8/flawed-foreign-policy-united-states-cold-war). - **Middle East Setbacks**: Events like the 1973 Arab oil embargo and the 1979 overthrow of the U.S.-backed shah of Iran by Islamic fundamentalists further highlighted the limitations of U.S. [policy](https://thepoliticswatcher.com/pages/articles/us-politics/2024/5/8/flawed-foreign-policy-united-states-cold-war). During a period of perceived U.S. weakness, the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan in 1979 but faced strong resistance from rebel armies supported by the U.S. The Soviets withdrew after nearly a decade, significantly weakened. Meanwhile, President Reagan increased U.S. military strength and supported rebel forces in Soviet-allied regions of Nicaragua and Angola (and one faction in Cambodia) as well as Afghanistan. Relations between the superpowers improved after Mikhail Gorbachev became the Soviet leader in 1985, though conflicts in places like Afghanistan and Angola persisted into the new century. In hindsight, both superpowers overestimated Soviet strength. Initially, the U.S. had clear military superiority, particularly in nuclear weapons. Over time, the Soviets caught up, achieving strategic parity by the 1970s, meaning mutual destruction was assured in a nuclear war. However, despite this military balance, the Soviet Union lagged significantly behind the West in wealth, technology, infrastructure, and citizen motivation. In June 1989, the Chinese government violently suppressed pro-democracy demonstrations in Beijing's Tiananmen Square, resulting in hundreds of deaths. Later that year, Eastern European countries replaced their communist governments amid mass protests, symbolized by the fall of the Berlin Wall in late 1989 and Germany's reunification in 1990. Soviet leader Gorbachev allowed these changes to focus on domestic reforms restructuring under his policies of perestroika (economic reform) and glasnost (openness in political discussion). China, while remaining communist and authoritarian, liberalized its economy and developed close ties with both the U.S. and Russia, joining the global trading system. Scholars disagree on why the Cold War ended. One view attributes it to U.S. military strength under Reagan, which pressured the Soviet Union into bankruptcy. Another perspective argues that the Soviet Union collapsed due to internal stagnation and long-term weaknesses, largely unrelated to external forces. Some scholars even suggest that the Soviet Union might have disintegrated sooner without the U.S. as an enemy, which helped the Soviet government maintain internal legitimacy. **The Post-Cold War Era, 1990-2022** The post-Cold War era began dramatically as the Soviet Union collapsed. In 1990, Iraq invaded Kuwait, likely seeing a power vacuum in the region after the Cold War. This aggressive move, aimed at controlling Middle East oil, alarmed Western powers, concerned about unpunished aggression and threats to global energy supplies. The United States quickly mobilized a coalition of major nations, with minimal opposition, to counter Iraq. Through the UN, the coalition imposed escalating sanctions on Iraq. When Iraq did not withdraw from Kuwait by the UN's deadline, the United States and its allies quickly defeated Iraq's military and expelled its army from Kuwait in the Gulf War. This marked the beginning of the unipolar moment of American dominance. However, the coalition did not occupy Iraq or overthrow its government. The costs of the war were shared among coalition members, with Britain and France providing military support, while Japan and Germany made significant financial contributions. The innovative "pass-the-hat" financing method for the war was quite effective. The Soviet Union collapsed shortly after the Gulf War. The 15 republics, including Russia, declared themselves sovereign states, leading to complex issues like national self-determination and property reallocation. Throughout the 1990s, Russia and the other former republics faced economic and financial collapse, inflation, corruption, war, and military weakness, but remained political democracies. A failed Russian military coup in 1991, opposed by President Boris Yeltsin, hastened the Soviet Union's collapse. Capitalism and democracy were adopted by the former Soviet states, which became independent and formed the CIS, except for the Baltic states and Georgia. Since the 1990s, Western relations with Russia and the other republics have been varied. Due to their own economic issues and the belief that Russia needed internal reform, Western countries provided limited aid during the region's harsh economic transition. Russia's suppression of Chechnya in 1995 and 1999 raised Western fears of aggressive Russian nationalism. Russian leaders were concerned about NATO expansion into Eastern Europe. Tensions increased after Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014 and support for rebels in eastern Ukraine. Revelations of Russian interference in Western democratic elections in the 2010s further increased distrust, solidified by Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Despite various problems, the immediate post-Cold War era saw increased cooperation between great powers compared to the Cold War. Russia and the United States agreed to significant nuclear weapon reductions in the 1990s and with the New Start treaty of 2010. Military tensions between great powers are relatively low through historical standards, but diplomatic disputes and economic sanctions against Russia after the 2014 Crimea War, influence in the 2016 U.S. election, and the 2022 Ukraine war have strained relations between Russia and the West. After the Gulf War in 1991, Yugoslavia disintegrated, with several republics declaring independence. Ethnic Serbs, minorities in Croatia and Bosnia, seized territory to create a "Greater Serbia." With support from Serbia and the Yugoslav army, they killed hundreds of thousands of non-Serb Bosnians and Croatians and expelled millions more to establish an ethnically pure state. The international community recognized the independence of Croatia and Bosnia, admitting them to the UN and passing Security Council resolutions to protect their territorial integrity and civilians. However, unlike the Gulf War, the great powers were unwilling to bear major costs to protect Bosnia, opting for a neutral peacekeeping role. In 1995, Serbian forces overran two UN-designated "safe areas" in eastern Bosnia, expelling women and slaughtering thousands of men in Srebrenica. NATO airstrikes and ground losses to Croatia eventually forced Serbian forces to negotiate. The resulting treaty formally held Bosnia together but granted Serbian forces autonomy over half their territory. Serbian leader Slobodan Milosevic was indicted for war crimes, delivered to the UN tribunal in 2001, and died in 2006 during his trial. In 1999, Western powers acted decisively when Serbian forces conducted "ethnic cleansing" in Kosovo, a province with a majority ethnic Albanian population. NATO launched a ten-week air war, despite criticism from Russia and China for acting without UN authorization and interfering in Serbia's internal affairs (The international community and the UN considered Kosovo, unlike Bosnia, to be part of Serbia.) Serbian forces eventually withdrew, and NATO has controlled Kosovo since. In 2008, Kosovo declared independence, which Serbia and its allies protested. In 2010, the World Court deemed Kosovo's declaration of independence legal, though its status remains disputed as of 2020. Since 1990, some Western military interventions were less effective. In Somalia, a U.S.-led coalition sent troops to suppress fighting and deliver aid but withdrew after sustaining casualties. The 1994 Rwandan genocide, which killed about 800,000 people, was largely ignored by the international community. The great powers, burned by failures in Somalia and Bosnia, decided that their vital interests were not at stake. In 1996, the U.S. intervened in Haiti to restore the elected president, but Haiti remains impoverished and politically unstable exacerbated by a devastating 2010 earthquake from which it never fully recovered and protests over fuel prices at the end of the decade. The 1997 Rwanda conflict spread to Zaire (now the Democratic Republic of the Congo), where rebels overthrew a dictator. Despite millions of civilian deaths, the international community avoided involvement. A major shift in global politics occurred when terrorists attacked the United States on September 11, 2001. The coordinated attacks destroyed the World Trade Center in New York and a wing of the Pentagon in Washington, DC, while another flight crashed in Pennsylvania, after its passengers attempted to overtake the terrorists. Thousands of people from the U.S. and around 60 other countries were killed. The attacks garnered widespread international support for the U.S. President Bush declared a "war on terrorism," which has lasted for years and spanned continents, using both conventional and unconventional means. In late 2001, U.S. and British forces, along with Afghan allies, ousted the Taliban regime in Afghanistan, which had harbored the al Qaeda network led by Osama bin Laden. In early 2003, great power divisions resurfaced when the United States and Britain attempted to form a coalition to forcibly remove Iraq's Saddam Hussein. France, Germany, Russia, and China strongly opposed the war, along with millions of global protesters. The dispute disrupted the Atlantic alliance for several years and weakened the UN's role, as the U.S.-led coalition proceeded without Security Council authorization. The U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003 was brief and decisive, with 250,000 troops overpowering the Iraqi army in three weeks. While many Iraqis welcomed the end of the dictatorship, the war inflamed anti-American sentiment, especially in Muslim countries. Insurgent forces in Iraq gained strength during the prolonged U.S. occupation, leading to a shift in U.S. public opinion against the war. A U.S. troop surge in 2007 and the arming of Sunni communities reduced violence, and U.S. forces withdrew between 2009 and 2011. Iraqi deaths from the war range from tens of thousands to over 600,000. Elections in 2010 and 2014 were peaceful but left the country ethnically divided. Sporadic violence continued until the Syrian conflict spilled into Iraq in 2014, leading to the rise of ISIS. Iraq\'s prime minister resigned, and perennial enemies Iran and the United States began assisting Iraq (separately) in confronting ISIS forces. By fall 2017, Iraq declared victory over ISIS and regained control of its territory. The Arab Spring began in 2011 with nonviolent protests in Tunisia and Egypt, leading to the overthrow of dictators and free elections. Egypt's elected president from the Muslim Brotherhood was overthrown by the military in 2013. In Libya and Syria, violent repression led to uprisings; Libya's dictator was overthrown with NATO support, while Syria faced a prolonged civil war. The Syrian conflict spilled into Iraq, destabilizing its government with a divided international community unable to respond effectively. Chemical weapon use in Syria drew global condemnation. Russia intervened with airstrikes to support the Syrian government, while the US and allies supported rebels and Kurdish fighters (an ethnic minority in Syria and Iraq) against ISIS. Violence in Libya persisted into 2020. Yemen experienced a revolution involving peaceful protests, violent repression, ethnic conflict, and political compromise, leading to a transitional government. This government, supported by Saudi Arabia and Western allies, fought a bloody war against rebel groups backed by Iran and al Qaeda. By 2017, the conflict escalated, with rebels controlling significant areas, a naval blockade worsening famine, and regional fighters joining the fray. Meanwhile, in Myanmar, the Aung San Suu Kyi government, after moving towards democracy, committed what many called "ethnic cleansing" against the Rohingya minority in 2017, resulting in a humanitarian disaster. The Israeli-Arab conflict, which had rising hopes for peace in the 1990s, worsened after peace talks failed in 2000. The 2006 Palestinian elections brought Hamas, a militant Islamist group, to power, leading to more violence. That year, Israel fought both Hezbollah guerrillas in southern Lebanon and continued its clashes with Hamas. Israel deployed the Iron Dome to defend against Hamas missiles. Israeli settlements in disputed areas expanded, while Palestinians sought international recognition as independent state. In October 2023, Hamas attacked Israeli towns, killing over 1,400 Israelis, leading to Israel\'s large-scale military response in Gaza, causing numerous deaths and a humanitarian crisis. By early 2024, peace prospects remained bleak. The post-Cold War era saw significant globalization, with new economic growth hubs emerging, especially in Asia. However, globalization also brought challenges. The 2007-2008 economic recession severely impacted developed economies, causing widespread unemployment, a sharp decline in international trade, and significant economic anxiety. Employment levels in many OECD countries did not recover until 2016. A decade later, the COVID-19 pandemic triggered another major recession globally. The 2008 Great Recession in Europe triggered both economic and political crises. Southern European countries like Spain, Portugal, Italy, and Greece struggled to meet the economic criteria for the euro. Greece's admission of falsifying its economic data led to a deeper recession as investors withdrew. The EU, led by Germany, bailed out Greece to keep it in the euro. This crisis fueled anti-EU sentiment, which was exacerbated in 2015 by the influx of refugees from Libya and Syria. European citizens were divided on whether to accept the refugees, balancing moral and humanitarian arguments against economic and security concerns. Globalization has led to backlashes from those adversely affected or who feel their identities are threatened by foreign influences. This has contributed to the resurgence of nationalism and ethnic-religious conflicts, as well as significant protests against capitalist-led globalization. These sentiments played a crucial role in the 2016 American presidential election and the British referendum on EU membership. Key themes in both elections included the dangers of open borders and rising international trade, with calls for country-first policies over globalist approaches. Increasing globalization has highlighted transnational concerns like environmental degradation and disease. Climate change poses a growing threat, evidenced by the melting Arctic ice and rising coastal flooding. The Ebola virus outbreak in 2014-2015, which killed thousands in western Africa, served as a precursor to the more severe COVID-19 pandemic that claimed millions of lives globally. Major oil spills in the Gulf of Mexico and China in 2010 also brought renewed focus on pollution and environmental issues, particularly in the global competition for natural resources. In the early twenty-first century, China emerged as a rising power in world politics due to its size and rapid growth. Historically, such shifts in power dynamics have led to instability in the international system. China stands out as the only great power that is not a democracy, and its poor human rights record frequently attracts criticism from Western governments and NGOs. China is a significant global player, seldom using veto power in the UN Security Council, holding a credible nuclear arsenal, and influence on missile and nuclear weapon proliferation. It has territorial disputes in the South and East China Seas but hasn't engaged in military conflict for 25 years. The transfer of Hong Kong from Britain in 1997 was a valuable acquisition, and China hopes to reintegrate Taiwan under a similar "one country, two systems" model. Its large population and rapid industrialization make it a key factor in future global environmental trends like climate change. These elements position China as an important actor in the coming decades. **Public Opinion and International Relations** This feature will explore public opinion on key international relations issues, highlighting the increasing vocalization of global publics on topics like human rights, immigration, terrorism, and trade. Public opinion is often divided, leading to political tensions. Each chapter will focus on either the United States or multiple countries with reliable data. The first feature examines U.S. public opinion on whether the country should remain active in global affairs or withdraw from its leadership role. Figure 1.6 graphs these polls. Several main trends emerge when examining the data. A solid majority of Americans have consistently believed that the United States should be active in international affairs. However, the 1970s saw a rise in isolationist sentiment, partly due to the unpopular Vietnam War, which highlighted the perceived excesses of Cold War foreign policy. Economic troubles in the early 1970s, such as leaving the gold standard and an oil embargo, also contributed to this decline in support for an active global role. In democracies, public opinion acts as a constraint on leaders' behavior, making it unlikely for presidents or prime ministers to choose policies they know will be unpopular. However, scholars are uncertain about how much leaders consider public opinion on specific policies like economic sanctions, immigration, and free trade. This topic will be discussed in more detail. Public opinion can be both an effect and a cause of leaders\' views on international affairs. During the Cold War, U.S. political parties supported global involvement, and public opinion followed their lead. Whether isolationist sentiment will continue to rise or public support for active foreign policy will grow depends on both international events and U.S. leaders\' stances on global issues. China's recent strategy involves both conforming to and challenging the international system. For instance, the establishment of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) in 2015 mimics the World Bank but with fewer environmental and labor standards. Additionally, the Belt and Road Initiative aims to enhance trade and increase China's political influence. These actions challenge the way existing development organizations operate as they have fewer standards relating to environmental and labor rights. The question remains whether the international system can accommodate China's rising power and whether China can adhere to international norms.