Outline Topic 6 Nomination of Presidential Candidates_Fall 2024 PDF

Copyrighted material Students enrolled in Professor Bond’s POLS 206 class may make a copy for personal use, but it may not be reproduced or sold CONTEXT FOR TOPICS 6, 7, 8 ELECTIONS IN AMERICAN DEMOCRACY Context: Elections in American Democ...

Copyrighted material Students enrolled in Professor Bond’s POLS 206 class may make a copy for personal use, but it may not be reproduced or sold CONTEXT FOR TOPICS 6, 7, 8 ELECTIONS IN AMERICAN DEMOCRACY Context: Elections in American Democracy (chap. 10) The Concept of Elections in Representative Democracy (Chap.10, pp. 337-341) – A collective decision in which citizens choose representatives to exercise governmental power – Primary mechanism to make government responsive & accountable to the will of the people Electing the President & Congress Consists of Two Steps – Nomination of candidates by Political Parties – Election in the General Election Different Rules & Procedures for Electing the President & Congress – Procedures to Nominate & Elect the President (unusual & confusing) Topic 6 Nomination of Presidential Candidates (Chap 10, pp. 341-362) Topic 7 Election of the President: Electoral College (Chap 10, pp. 362-377) – Procedures to Nominate & Elect Congress Topic 8 Congressional Elections (Chap 10, pp. 378-399) Topic 6 Nomination of Presidential Candidates Lecture 6.1: How Parties Nominate Candidates for President & Vice President Lecture 6.2: Four Stages of the Nomination Campaign—A Winnowing Process  Copyrighted material Students enrolled in Professor Bond’s POLS 206 class may make a copy for personal use, but it may not be reproduced or sold Lecture 6.1 How Parties Nominate Candidates for President & Vice President How Do Parties Nominate Presidential Candidates? National Party Conventions – Composed of Delegates chosen in the states (& territories) – Delegates choose the parties’ nominees for President & VP at the conventions Size of Conventions in 2024 – Democratic Convention = 4,695 delegates; Republican Convention = 2,429 delegates. “Magic Number” needed to win nomination – Majority of delegates (50% + 1) – Democrats = 2,348; Republicans = 1,215 Difference in size is a function of how parties allocate delegates to each state How Many Delegates Does Each State Party Send? Party rules have formulas to allocate delegates to states Both parties use same general criteria – Population—large states have larger delegations than small states – Party Loyalty—states that support a party’s candidates have larger delegations than similar sized states that support the other party – Party formulas differ in how they calculate state size & party loyalty – Table 10.1 Size of State Delegations at 2024 Party Conventions  Copyrighted material Students enrolled in Professor Bond’s POLS 206 class may make a copy for personal use, but it may not be reproduced or sold Table 10.1: Population Affects Size of Delegations National Party Conventions Table 10.1: Party Loyalty Affects Size of Delegations National Party Conventions  Copyrighted material Students enrolled in Professor Bond’s POLS 206 class may make a copy for personal use, but it may not be reproduced or sold How Are Delegates Chosen? Two methods 1. Caucus method (several steps leading to State Convention) Precinct caucuses: elect delegates to County conventions (candidates’ campaigns urge supporters to turn-out) County conventions: elect delegates to District & State conventions District & State conventions: choose National Convention delegates Delegates awarded in proportion to candidates’ support at each step (Repubs. allow some winner-take-all) 2. State presidential primary Voters express presidential preference in primary election Delegates awarded in proportion to votes each candidate receives (Repus. allow some winner-take-all) – Plus Superdelegates (Democrats only) Automatic (unelected) delegates—776 in 2024 (≈ 16% of total) Official title—Party Leaders & Elected Officials (PLEOs) DNC; “DPLs” (Distinguished Party Leaders: former Pres., VPs, & Cong. ldrs); & Elected officials (Govs., Hse. & Sen.) “Unpledged”—not bound by voter preferences (but may endorse) State law determines the method (primary or caucus) & sets date of the state’s contest – Shift to primaries over time (Fig. 10.1 % of Delegates Chosen in Primaries)  Copyrighted material Students enrolled in Professor Bond’s POLS 206 class may make a copy for personal use, but it may not be reproduced or sold – “Frontloading” over time Delegate selection contests are held between February – July A candidate often has the nomination “sewed up” before late contests are held State legislatures move the date of their contest earlier to influence who wins the nomination Shortens the de facto nomination process to a few weeks Not enough time for voters to learn about all the candidates Figure 10.2 Frontloading of Delegate Selection National parties attempting to get control of elections calendar, but limited power to do so Republicans frontloaded in 2016, but Dem contest lasted 12 wks: Why only Democrats? – Dem. rules require proportional allocation of delegates; Rep. rules allow winner take all Neither party frontloaded in 2020 (but dates & procedures altered due to Covid-19 pandemic) Figure 10.1: Frontloading of Delegate Selection  Copyrighted material Students enrolled in Professor Bond’s POLS 206 class may make a copy for personal use, but it may not be reproduced or sold Lecture 6.2 Four Stages of the Nomination Campaign—A Winnowing Process Stage One: “Invisible Primary” No formal rules; no delegates selected – Traditional “start”—after midterm elections – Since 1970s—immediately after new president is inaugurated No formal rules; no delegates selected – Traditional “start”—after midterm elections – Since 1970s—immediately after new president is inaugurated Test the waters (Table 10.2) – Raise money – Build campaign organization – Get “mentioned” Table 10.2: Candidates for Party Presidential Nominations  Copyrighted material Students enrolled in Professor Bond’s POLS 206 class may make a copy for personal use, but it may not be reproduced or sold A funny (failed) attempt to “get mentioned”  Copyrighted material Students enrolled in Professor Bond’s POLS 206 class may make a copy for personal use, but it may not be reproduced or sold Criteria to determine who’s “winning” (gain credibility; demonstrate viability; get known) – The “Money Primary” (Table 10.3) Table 10.3: Presidential Nomination Candidates’ Standings in the “Money Primary”  Copyrighted material Students enrolled in Professor Bond’s POLS 206 class may make a copy for personal use, but it may not be reproduced or sold – Standing in the polls (Figure 10.3) Figure 10.3a: Republican Invisible Primary 2012 Figure 10.3b: Republican Invisible Primary 2016  Copyrighted material Students enrolled in Professor Bond’s POLS 206 class may make a copy for personal use, but it may not be reproduced or sold Figure 10.3c: Democratic Invisible Primary 2016 Figure 10.3b: Democratic Invisible Primary 2020 – The “Endorsements Derby” (Table 10.4) Table 10.4: Presidential Candidates’ Standings in the “Endorsement Derby”  Copyrighted material Students enrolled in Professor Bond’s POLS 206 class may make a copy for personal use, but it may not be reproduced or sold Stage Two: Initial Contests—first official events to select delegates Iowa Caucuses & New Hampshire Primary – Perceived to be extraordinarily important  Copyrighted material Students enrolled in Professor Bond’s POLS 206 class may make a copy for personal use, but it may not be reproduced or sold All candidates & campaign organizations there News media Focus of national attention – Why so important? Large blocs of delegates? Table 10.1: Size of State Delegations at 2020 National Party Conventions Highly representative of American nationally? – Which states most like America? IL 1st; OR 2nd; MI 3rd – IA 41st; NH 49th Why so much attention? Only because they are first – IA & NH feel strongly about being first—free publicity in headlines – Controversy over why two small, unrepresentative states should get so much attention – Dems moved SC primary first in 2024; NH still had primary elections, but no Dem delegates selected Stage Three: Mist Clearing Candidates move on to other Contests Weaker candidates begin to drop out Criteria shifts to delegate counts (Figure 10.4)  Copyrighted material Students enrolled in Professor Bond’s POLS 206 class may make a copy for personal use, but it may not be reproduced or sold Figure 10.4a Mist Clearing: 2012 Republican Presidential Candidates' Delegate Accumulation Figure 10.4a Mist Clearing: 2016 Republican Presidential Candidates' Delegate Accumulation Figure 10.4c Mist Clearing: 2016 Democratic Presidential Candidates' Delegate Accumulation  Copyrighted material Students enrolled in Professor Bond’s POLS 206 class may make a copy for personal use, but it may not be reproduced or sold Stage Four: Convention Nomination of Presidential Candidate – Delegates no longer “choose” the nominee—ratify voters’ choices made in primaries & caucuses – Only if a candidate has “magic number”—Speculation about “brokered” (contested) Dem. Conv. in 2020 Nomination of Vice Presidential Candidate – Presidential candidate’s choice – What they say: “Qualified to be President” – The real criteria: Balance the Ticket Ideology, Region, Insider/Outsider, Gender/race (Democrats 2020) Other Functions of the Convention – “Pep Rally Goal” Scripted to look good on T.V. Showcase the party & create favorable image – Promote party unity – Adopt the party platform – Adopt rules to govern the party