ILS1201 - Geography & Global Challenges.pdf

POLITICAL GEOGRAPHY GEOGRAPHIC DETERMINISM a theory that human activity is determined by geographical conditions - shaped the wars, the power, politics, and social development of the people - technology and globalization Impact on different aspects of civil...

POLITICAL GEOGRAPHY GEOGRAPHIC DETERMINISM a theory that human activity is determined by geographical conditions - shaped the wars, the power, politics, and social development of the people - technology and globalization Impact on different aspects of civilization: political and military strategy, human social development (language, trade, and religion) No one geographical factor is more important than any other – Marshall, 2015 GEOGRAPHY – examination, description, and explanation of Earth ❖ CONTINENTAL – larger landmasses or features associated with continents ❖ PENINSULAR – land that extends into a body of water but remains attached to the mainland REGIONS – areas identified by distinctive characteristics that distinguish them from surrounding areas (physical, human, or a combination) REGIONAL GEOGRAPHY – concentrates on the characteristics of a region THREE PRINCIPAL IDEAS/CONCEPTS OF POLITICAL GEOGRAPHY 1. TERRITORY is spaces that are defended, contested, claimed against the claims of others through territoriality - is the area whose content one seeks to control in these ways (territoriality) - ideas of power and space TERRITORIALITY is the activity of defending, controlling, excluding, and including (with influence) Kinds of Territorial Activities: ❖ Exclusionary – restrictions and limitations (import quotas & tariffs) ❖ Inclusionary – attracting benefits/advantages such as investments What motivates people to defend particular areas and so to seek out the help of states? INTERESTS (things, symbols that people want) 2. STATE is an expression of territorial power - “ultimate regulator” – guarantor and limiter (laws)  3. SOCIAL PROCESS - types of demand (economic, cultural, material, symbolic) KAUTILYA’S MANDALA SYSTEM – circle of things ➔ your kingdom has neighboring kingdoms: your immediate neighbor is your enemy ➔ important to establish allies: the enemy of your enemy is your friend HUMAN GEOGRAPHY 1. HUMAN GEOGRAPHY (PLACE) – a systematic study of what makes places unique and the connections and interactions between places (Knox & Marson, 1998) to fully understand a place, geographers must consider its connections and interactions with other places around the world POLITICAL GEOGRAPHERS – interested in characteristics of places (weather patterns, physical setting, the shape of a city, the pattern of housing, transport systems) understand places in relation to the world analyzes how a place’s uniqueness is produced through a combination of physical, social, economic, and political attributes 2. HUMAN GEOGRAPHY (SPACE) – study of the spatial organization of human activity (Knox & Marson, 1998) gives greater weight to functional issues ➔ how human activities and objects are arranged and distributed across space (not just focusing on the unique characteristics of specific places) HOW GEOGRAPHERS THINK ABOUT PLACE JOHN AGNEW (1987) ❖ Location – role/function a place plays in the world ➔ key industries and sources of employment within a place are a good measure of location ❖ Locale – institutions that organize activity, politics, and identity in a place ➔ people operate as parts of groups: Families, schools, workplaces, communities of worship, labor unions, political parties, militias, parent-teacher organizations, sports clubs, etc. ➔ institutions that form the social life of a particular place  ❖ Sense of Place – a collective identity tied to a particular place as the unique “character” of a place ➔ people’s identity is a function of membership in a number of collective identities: gender, race, social class, profession, nationality, and, place ➔ people are guided in their actions by particular identities that say who they are and what they can and cannot, should and should not, do. ➔ refers to the emotional and psychological attachment people have to a particular location ALTERNATIVE VIEW OF SOCIETY: COSMOPOLITANISM | GLOBALIZATION | DIASPORAS DOREEN MASSEY (1994) “Places are network of social relations” ❖ places are products of human activity (socially constructed) ❖ places are dynamic (they change overtime) ❖ places can only be understood fully through their interactions with other places “Places are sites of multiple conflicts” Okinawa – conflict over the US presence is connected to the situation of the island within Japan POLITICS OF SCALE actions of individuals/groups of individuals range in their geographic scope or reach GEOPOLITICS part of human geography | form of political geography an approach to foreign policy analysis that understands the actions, relationships, and significance of states in terms of geographical factors (location, climate, natural resources, physical terrain, and population) – Heywood Geopolitics and Statesmanship – the practices and representations of territorial strategies (Gilmastin & Kofman, 2004) a way of “seeing” the world - a belief that whole world is a “transparent space” that is seeable and knowable from the vantage point of white, male, and higher class viewpoint of theoretician CONTEMPORARY GEOPOLITICS identifies the source, practices, and representations that allow for the control of territory and the extraction of resources - “situated knowledge”  - geopolitical knowledge is seen as part of the struggle as marginalized people in different situations aim to resist the domination of the views of powerful APPROACHES TO GEOPOLITICS CLASSICAL GEOPOLITICS ❖ Classical Geopoliticians – from privileged class, race, and gender bg of Western countries ➔ Halford Mackinder, Alfred Thayer Mahan, General Karl Haushofer CRITICAL GEOPOLITICS ❖ Critical Geopoliticians – encourages anti-geopolitics; practices to resist the control and classifications imposed by state and other powerful institutions practice of identifying the power relationships within geopolitical statements FEMINIST GEOPOLITICS ❖ Feminist critiques – all knowledge is “situated” and “partial” invoked the need for “populated” geopolitics, one that identifies the complexity of world, and the particular situations of people across the world KEY ACTORS OF GEOPOLITICS SIR HALFORD MACKINDER (1861-1947, Britain) classical geopolitician in the 19th century influenced by Alfred Thayer Mahan (1840-1941, US) ❖ Global politics as a “closed system” - actions of different countries were necessarily interconnected, and the major axis of conflict was between land and sea powers Heartland Theory Britain and has naval dominance, yet Mackinder believed that with the introduction of railways, the advantage had switched to land powers (from sea), especially if one country could dominate the inaccessible Heartland zone  ➔ in 1904, the core of Eurasia was called the “Pivot Area” - Pivot Area because, in his Eurocentric gaze, the history of the world pivoted around the sequence of invasions out of this region into the surrounding areas that were more oriented to the sea – USSR TERRITORIAL CORE ➔ in 1919 he renamed it, “Heartland” ➔ World Island = Eurasian & African landmasses Who rules East Europe commands the Heartland Who rules the Heartland commands the World-Island Who rules the World-Island commands the World GOALS: maintain British global preeminence in the face of challenge from Germany, the country most likely to “rule” eastern Europe, and in the process, resist changes to British society (to maintain strong imperial bloc and aristocratic status) ALFRED THAYER MAHAN (1840-1914, US) ❖ emphasized the importance of “naval strength and maritime control” in achieving and maintaining global influence made a historical distinction between land and sea powers that was to influence geopolitical thinkers throughout the Cold War advocated an alliance with Britain to counterbalance Eurasian land powers GOALS: to increase US global influence and projection of power while avoiding conflict with the dominant British navy FRIEDRICH RATZEL (1844-1904) & RUDOLF KJELLEN (1864-1922) of Germany The United States was not the only country that was eyeing Great Britain’s supremacy. In Germany, politicians and intellectuals viewed Britain as an arrogant nation that had no “divine right” to its global power. In the words of Chancellor Bismarck, Germany deserved its “place in the sun.” Ratzel was instrumental in establishing geography as an academic discipline  - Politische Geographie (1897) and his paper “Laws of the Spatial Growth of States” laid the foundations for geopolitik ❖ Ratzel’s Zoological Notion/Organic Theory – states were dynamic entities that “naturally” grew with greater strength ➔ Kjellen developed Ratzel’s ideas and refined the organic view by emphasizing that states are dynamic and grow with their “culture” ➔ asserted that it was more efficient and “natural” for advanced cultures to expand into the territory of lesser cultures The more vigorous and “advanced” the culture, the more right it had to expand its “domain” or control more territory ❖ Ratzel’s Lebensraum “living space” – superior cultures deserved more territory as they would use the land in a better way - territorial acquisitions necessary for providing resources to sustain a world power in competition with other powers the ideas of Ratzel and Kjellen were aimed at increasing the size of the German state eastwards to create a large state that the “advanced” German culture warranted - illustrates classical geopolitics with classification and hierarchy GENERAL KARL HAUSHOFER (1869-1946, Germany) ➔ in the 1920s, Adolf Hitler and the Nazi party rise to power ❖ began to disseminate geopolitical ideas to the German public - through the means of a magazine/journal titled Zeitschrift fűr Geopolitik (Journal of Geopolitics) and a weekly radio show Geopolitical vision: unified two competing political camps in inter-war Germany - the landed aristocrats & the owners of new industries ➔ Haushofer’s vision allowed for both territorial growth and colonial acquisition by Germany, without initiating conflict with Britain German Geopolitical Theories: Haushofer – geographic/spatial relationship Hitler – racist view; anti-semitism (Jews) Yet, Haushofer did use Hitler’s surge to power as a means of advancing his own career and equating “geopolitics” with the Nazis tainted the sub-discipline of political geography, and it practically disappeared as a field of academic inquiry immediately after World War II HARAWAY’S (1998) GOD’S EYE VIEW Dubious “theories” of the history of the world and how it changes are used to “seeing” the dynamics of geopolitics as if from an objective position “above” the fray The phrase suggests that some individuals or scholars use controversial or speculative theories about history to try to achieve a “god’s eye view” of geopolitical trends. In other words, they might employ these theories to claim they have a more objective or detached understanding of global affairs, even if the theories themselves are not widely accepted or are considered problematic. OTHER ACTORS OF GEOPOLITICS ISAIAH BOWMAN (1878-1956, US) one-time president of the Association of American Geographers offered a pragmatic approach to the United States’ global role a key consultant to the government, most notably at the Treaty of Versailles negotiations at the end of World War I NICHOLAS SPYKMAN (1893-1943, US) IR professor at Yale Spykman Division of the World: Old World: Eurasia (Europe and Asia), Africa, Australia New World: the Americas noted the United States rise to power and argued that it now needed to practice balance of power diplomacy (as the European powers had traditionally done) ➔ the US was seen as the dominant power in the New World; if the Old World powers could unite, they could potentially challenge the US dominance ➔ hence, he proposed an active, non-isolationist US foreign policy to construct and maintain a balance of power in the “Old World” to prevent a challenge to the United States Spykman identified the “Rimland,” following Mackinder’s “inner crescent,” as the key geopolitical arena  Mackinder believed that the Inner Spykman argued that the Rimland was Crescent was crucial because: the key to global dominance because: It was a strategic buffer It includes major population centers protecting the Heartland. and economic hubs. It contained significant It controls important maritime routes economic and military resources. and trade networks. Control of the Inner Crescent could help in Dominating the Rimland could help maintaining influence over the Heartland. in containing or counterbalancing the influence of powers that might seek to control the Heartland. SAUL COHEN (1963-2021, US) GYORGY KONRAD (1984-2019, Hungary) RUSSIA a country that is both in Europe and Asia largest country in the world | eleven time zones vast | six-million-square-miles vast - “medved” (Russian Bear) - the symbol of Russia - vulnerable to invasions due to its geography (flatland, no mountain on the western border to protect them) To reach Russia, some uses: WINSTON CHURCHILL'S FAMOUS OBSERVATION OF RUSSIA (1939) “It is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma... but perhaps there is a key. That key is Russian national interest.” According to him, Russia admires strength and has less respect for weakness, especially military weakness. Russia wanted to take control of the: NORTH EUROPEAN PLAIN (a double-edged sword) encompasses all of western and northern France, Belgium, the Netherlands, northern Germany, and nearly all of Poland 1. Poland – has a narrow corridor in which Russia could drive its armed forces to prevent the enemy from advancing toward Moscow 2. By the time you reach Russia's borders, it is more than two thousand miles wide and is flat to Moscow and beyond - Russia has never been conquered from this direction partially due to its strategic depth. By the time an army approaches Moscow, it already has unsustainably long supply lines. RUSSIAN FAR EAST geography protects Russia (from Asian invasion) - extreme cold weather and vast distances - Ural Mountains as a barrier between European Russia and Asian Russia - risk of counterattacks from Russian forces from long supply lines HISTORICAL CONTEXT OF RUSSIAN INVASIONS 1. 1605 - The Polish invasion 2. 1708 - The Swedish invasion led by Charles XII 3. 1812 - The French invasion under Napoleon - including the Crimean War of 1853-56 4. 1914 & 1941 - German invasion during WWI and WWII This all happened in the North European Plain, hence, NEP is important for Russia to protect to avoid future invasions from Western Europe. POST WWII Russians occupied territories in Central and Eastern Europe that had been conquered from Germany (some were USSR) to resemble the old Russian Empire 1949 - establishment of NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) against Soviet aggression 1955 - formation of Warsaw Pact – a treaty for military defense and mutual aid formed by the Communist allies states of Europe under Russian leadership (formed in response to NATO) however it became less effective and collapsed after the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 reached the territory from the Pacific Ocean to Berlin; Arctic to the borders of Afghanistan This made Russia as United States’ global rival in terms of economy, politics, and military power Former members of the Warsaw Pact that became part of NATO: 1. 1999: Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland 2. 2004: Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia 3. 2009: Albania This shift caused changes in Russia's geopolitical landscape and strategic planning and “worried” about NATO's intrusion into their territory. MAJOR GEOPOLITICAL DISASTER OF THE CENTURY According to Vladimir Putin, the breakup of the former Soviet Union was due to Mikhail Gorbachev's governance; thus, Gorbachev was a reason for Russia's weak security. KIEVAN RUS & THE GRAND PRINCIPALITY OF MUSCOVY ❖ In the past Russia was known as Kievan Rus - a group of East Slavics in Eastern Europe that was based in Kiev and other towns along the Dnieper River, or present-day Ukraine ❖ Mongols invade Kievan Rus (south and east) to expand their empire - In the 13th Century, Mongols overran Kievan Rus and Russia relocated from the northeast to present-day Moscow and became the Grand Principality of Muscovy Grand Principality of Muscovy and their Geographical Challenges - a flatland that lacks natural defensive features such as mountains, deserts, and rivers RUSSIA UNDER IVAN THE TERRIBLE shifted from vulnerable territory to territory with a natural barrier Ivan the Terrible – first tsar/emperor of the Grand Principality of Muscovy - formed the concept of attack as defense - give support to the theory that individuals can change history - accelerated the expansion of Russia when he came to power in 1533 Ivan the Great – Ivan the Terrible grandfather - gives Russia moderate expansion that made Ivan the Terrible expand it way faster EXTENSION OF RUSSIA’S TERRITORY DURING IVAN THE TERRIBLE - east towards the Urals - south to the Caspian Sea, and later the Black Sea - north towards the Arctic circle - Caucasus Mountain became a barrier towards Caspian and Black Sea against the Mongols - made Chechnya a military base - Ural mountains to Serbia that made them take all the land to the Pacific coast far to the east Emergence of Russia's Buffer Zone and Hinterland – a strategic depth; a large area of land that provides additional security against invaders. This expansion made Russia less vulnerable to attacks and became difficult to invade. Furthermore, Ivan the Terrible made Russia the "Russia" that we know now. EIGHTEENTH-CENTURY RUSSIA The birth of the powerful Russian Empire (1721) ruled by Peter the Great and Empress Catherine the Great ❖ Empire expanded through the West - became one of the great powers of Europe ❖ Trade and nationalism - is the driving force of the Russian Empire ❖ able to occupy Ukraine and reach the Carpathian Mountain ❖ controlled the Baltic States: Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia TWENTIETH-CENTURY RUSSIA The creation of Communist Russia’s “Soviet Union” USSR - Union of Soviet Socialists Republic USSR Rhetoric – “Workers of the World Unite” USSR as Russian Empire writ large (USSR as expansion version of the RE) RUSSIA DURING POST-WWII reached the territory from the Pacific Ocean to Berlin; Arctic to the borders of Afghanistan This made Russia as United States global rival in terms of economy, politics, and military power RUSSIA'S GEOGRAPHICAL LANDSCAPE AND IDENTITY twice the size of the US/China | 5 times the size of India | twenty-five times the size of the UK | 144M population - problems in agriculture, especially the short growing season - difficulties in distributing resources across its eleven time zones - close proximity to the United States’ Alaska ❖ RUSSIA AS PART OF EUROPE AND ASIA - it is a European power as it borders the European landmass; not an Asian power despite its near geography toward Asian countries > 75% of its territory is in Asia with only 22% of its population - Siberia as Russia's “treasure chest” with its mineral wealth, oil, and gas; > However, settlement in Serbia is difficult due to its harsh land because of extremely cold weather, vast forest (taiga), weak agricultural soil, and large stretches of swampland - Outside Russia, many are not ethnically Russian and pay little loyalty to Moscow resulting in an aggressive security system Russian Transportations: 1. Two railway networks (west to east): Trans-Siberian and Baikal-Amur Mainline 2. Lack of north-to-south transportation routes - slows Russia’s ability to project power southward into modern Mongolia or China ❖ CHINA'S POSSIBLE AUTHORITY TO: 1. SIBERIA - In the future, China might control Siberia due to Russia's declining birthrate and increased Chinese immigration moving north 2. RUSSIA'S FAR EAST – Due to depopulation, it is more likely to come under Chinese cultural and political control LATE TWENTIETH-CENTURY RUSSIA The challenges of Russia 1. THE FALL OF THE USSR spending more money than was available the failure to invade Afghanistan in 1979  - it is not really about bringing the joys of Marxist-Leninism to Afghan people, but about ensuring that Moscow controlled that space before others the Russian Empire shrunk back to the shape of pre-Communist borders - resulting in reduced European boundaries like Estonia, Latvia, Belarus, Ukraine, Georgia, and Azerbaijan THE AFGHAN EXPERIENCE "Russia's Vietnam" Russia's Vietnam because it is often compared to the US' experience in Vietnam Afghanistan is called as "Graveyard of Empires" due to the difficulty of invaders to invade them thus, the plains of Kandahar and the mountain of Hindu Kush serve as barrier to them 2. RUSSIA'S WATER PORT PROBLEM prevents them from operating as a global power they never had a warm-water port that had free access to the world's major trading routes due to their geography's harsh winter weather Russia’s Arctic port: ➔ Murmansk – freezes for several months each year ➔ Vladivostok – the largest in the Pacific Ocean and is ice-locked for about months and is near the sea of Japan The lack of a warm-water port became Russia's Achilles' heel or weakness; a geographical disadvantage. DISSOLUTION OF THE SOVIET UNION The Soviet Union splits into fifteen independent countries natural features (mountains, rivers, lakes, seas) shaped the people of independent countries, and the culture, language, as well as customs developed - there is an exception to this, the "stans" such as Tajikistan as Joseph Stalin intentionally drew borders to weaken each state by ensuring it had large minorities of people from other states THE DIVISION OF FORMER SOVIET UNION AND WARSAW PACT MILITARY ALLIANCES 1. NEUTRAL – Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, and Turkmenistan all three countries produce their own energy and are not beholden to either side for their security or trade  2. PRO-RUSSIAN – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Belarus, and Armenia have strong economic and political ties to Russia Kazakhstan and Belarus are members of the Eurasian Union led by Russia all 5 countries are part of Russia's military alliance, Collection Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) Russian military bases in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Armenia 3. PRO-WESTERN CAMP – Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Hungary, Slovakia, Albania, and Romania (consist of former Warsaw Pact members and now in NATO) these countries experienced suffering under Soviet rule - Georgia, Ukraine, and Moldova want to join both organizations but have restrictions due to proximity to Russia and all have Russian troops or pro-Russian militia in their territory UKRAINE’S STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE: RUSSIA’S CONCERN 1. PRO-RUSSIAN UKRAINE ➔ Intact Buffer Zone - crucial for protecting the North European Plain As long as Ukraine had a pro-Russian government, Russia felt secure that its buffer zone was intact. 2. NEUTRAL UKRAINE ➔ promised to not join the EU or NATO ➔ will still uphold the lease on the warm-water port at Sevastopol in Crimea as Russia’s naval base ➔ neutral because of reliance on Russia for energy Neutrality ensured Ukraine would not align with Western powers and thus would not threaten Russian interests. 3. PRO-WESTERN UKRAINE ➔ aspired to join EU and NATO - a threat to Russia This aspiration would challenge Russia’s access to Black Sea port and could potentially lead to the establishment of a NATO naval base in Crimea, directly threatening Russia's strategic interests. UKRAINE’S RELATION TOWARD RUSSIA AND THE WEST AND A NEW FORM OF GOVERNMENT President Viktor Yanukovych shows neutrality towards Russia and the West almost signed a Trade Agreement with the EU which could lead to NATO membership - Putin increased pressure on him as EU membership was seen as a way to NATO membership, which was a threat to Russia with Putin’s pressure, he abandoned the EU deal in favor of a pact with Russia - sparking protests that eventually led to his overthrow Western Support for Ukrainian Opposition The West aimed to pull Ukraine intellectually and economically toward Western institutions. This involved training and funding pro-Western democratic opposition groups in Ukraine to promote reforms and align Ukraine more closely with European and Western values ➔ Germany and the US supported pro-Western opposition groups in Ukraine ➔ Berlin shows support for Vitali Klitschko ❖ Street Fighting – caused by Western support Eastern Ukraine: pro-Russian sentiment was stronger, and people came out in support of President Viktor Yanukovych Western Ukraine: Western cities like L’viv saw strong anti-Russian sentiment and efforts to eliminate pro-Russian influence By mid-February 2014, cities in western Ukraine were no longer under the control of the central government ❖ Anti-Russian Factions – pro-Western and some pro-fascist, took over the government there were dozens of deaths and President Yanukovych feared his life and fled signifies the end of his governance Putin felt worried, hence, he had to annex (when one country forcibly asserts control and sovereignty over another country's territory) Crimea to attain Sevastopol RUSSIA’S NAVAL AMBITION & CHALLENGES: UKRAINE’S “SEVASTOPOL” AS RUSSIA’S STRATEGIC PORT SEVASTOPOL is Russia’s primary warm-water port - not subject to freezing temperatures that would hinder naval operations - located in Crimea and its significance is due to its access to the Black Sea Black Sea - holds significant trade importance due to its strategic geographic location, serving as a bridge between Europe and Asia - Putin views the Black Sea as an important springboard for projecting power into the Middle East, Europe, and the Mediterranean MONTREUX CONVENTION of 1936 restricts the number and types of naval vessels from the Black Sea that can pass to the Mediterranean through the Bosporus Strait, especially in times of conflict this treaty grants Turkey (a NATO member) control over the Bosporus during wartime, Russian naval movements through this strait would be highly restricted, limiting their ability to deploy or receive reinforcements from the Mediterranean - Russia does have a small Naval Presence in Tartus on Syria’s Mediterranean coast (but not a major naval force) FURTHER NAVAL CHALLENGES: Even if Russian ships manage to traverse the Bosporus, they face further challenges: 1. they would need to navigate the Aegean Sea to reach the Mediterranean 2. then they would either need to cross the Strait of Gibraltar to access the Atlantic Ocean or transit the Suez Canal to reach the Indian Ocean 3. the Baltic Sea is another area where Russian naval operations are constrained 4. the Skagerrak Strait, which leads to the North Sea, is controlled by NATO members Denmark and Norway 5. even if Russian ships could pass through Skagerrak Strait, they would face the GIUK (Greenland, Iceland, and the UK) in the North Sea, a strategic chokepoint monitored closely by NATO These routes are strategically significant and can be controlled or blocked by other nations or alliances, such as NATO. EXPANDING RUSSIA’S NAVAL CAPABILITIES in response to challenges and the annexation of Crimea ➔ building a fleet (a group of warships under one command) at Sevastopol ➔ constructing a new naval port in Novorossiysk, Russia (near the Black Sea) Despite the expansion, which increased Russia’s capability, this fleet still lacks the capability to break out of the Black Sea during wartime.  ❖ JULY 2015 NAVAL DOCTRINE identifies NATO as a significant threat to Russian interests criticizing NATO's military positioning near Russian borders as unacceptable this reflects the tension between Russia and NATO and underscores Russia's strategic concerns To counterbalance Russia’s naval ambitions, the United States is “expected” to support its NATO ally Romania in strengthening its Black Sea fleet and rely on Turkey to control access through the Bosporus Crimea was part of Russia from 1783 (when the Tsarist Empire annexed it a decade after defeating Ottoman forces in the Battle of Kozludzha) until 1954 when the Soviet government transferred Crimea from the Russian Soviet Federation of Socialist Republics (RSFSR) to the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic (UkrSSR) UKRAINE’S GEOPOLITICAL SITUATION WESTERN INTENTIONS the U.S. and European countries were eager to integrate Ukraine into the democratic world supporting its membership in liberal institutions and the rule of law, without Russia’s intervention the optimistic view of Western intentions and support for Ukraine did not account for Russia's strategic interests and actions However, the passage argues that this perspective overlooks the ongoing relevance of geopolitics in the 21st century. Specifically, it emphasizes that Russia does not adhere to the same rules and norms as Western countries, complicating the situation PUTIN’S PROPAGANDA (RUSSIA) ABOLISHMENT OF “RUSSIAN” AS UKRAINE’S OFFICIAL SECOND LANGUAGE ❖ Ukrainian government intentions in some regions of Ukraine despite the huge Russian-speaking population in the said regions, including Crimea - this move was seen as provocative and likely to incite backlash from pro-Russian groups ➔ Furthermore, Putin takes advantage of the situation and creates propaganda “to protect ethnic Russians in Ukraine” RUSSIA’S KREMLIN LAW – compels the government to protect “ethnic Russians” these laws include anyone who speaks Russian or has historical ties to Russia  given the significant ethnic Russian population in Crimea (60%), Russia was able to exploit the situation effectively - the Kremlin’s law on protecting ethnic Russians is broadly defined and flexible, allowing Russia to interpret it in ways that justify intervention whenever it sees fit Kremlin – the government of the Russian Federation ❖ Putin supported anti-Kiev demonstrations, created unrest (disagreements or fighting between different groups of people), and ultimately used this as a pretext to intervene militarily ➔ the Ukrainian military, unable to handle both the unrest and Russian forces, withdrew, leading to Crimea becoming a de facto part of Russia again ➔ For Putin, losing Crimea, which provides Russia with crucial access to a warm-water port (vital for their naval and economic interests), was not an acceptable - despite the possibility of respecting Ukraine’s territorial integrity (as an option), Russia’s strategic needs are his priority Therefore, Ukraine and its neighbors knew a geographic truth: that unless you are in NATO, Moscow is near, and Washington, DC, is far away. For Russia this was an existential matter: they could not cope with losing Crimea, but the West could. RUSSIA’S POLITICAL NEEDS & AMBITIONS EUROPEAN UNION SANCTION In response to Russia’s actions in Ukraine, the EU imposed limited sanctions limited because several European countries, such as Germany, rely on Russian energy supplies (used during winter) ENERGY AS RUSSIA’S “POLITICAL POWER” the pipelines that transport energy run from east to west, hence, Russia has the power to disrupt supply, giving it leverage over European countries - will continue to be used as a tool of political power by Russia “NOVOROSSIYA”/NEW RUSSIA – a historical term referring to regions in southern and eastern Ukraine that were part of the Russian Empire in the late 18th century (these regions were settled by Russians and had Russian as the dominant language) the concept of “ethnic Russians” as a justification for Russia’s actions, allowing it to intervene in neighboring countries under the pretext of protecting ethnic Russians or Russian speakers ❖ Ukrainian regions as part of Russia’s territory in the past:  > Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, Mykolaiv, Odessa In Putin’s 2014 speech, he stated “Russia lost these territories for various reasons, but the people remained.” This highlights his view that these territories historically belonged to Russia and this historical narrative are used to justify Russia's claims and actions in these areas. RUSSIA’S INFLUENCE IN UKRAINE Encouraged pro-Russian uprisings in the eastern industrial regions of Luhansk and Donetsk ❖ fostering unrest rather than direct military invasion (Russia avoids the complications and costs associated with a full-scale military campaign) ➔ the unrest was hidden, making it easier to deny involvement on the international stage, hence, allowing Russia to avoid direct confrontation and manage international relations more easily - Western politicians were relieved that Ukraine was not a NATO member, as this would have necessitated a more significant and potentially risky response from NATO in defense of Ukraine Russia’s preparedness for military action Near Abroad: these actions were aimed at protecting its strategic interests and preventing Ukraine from aligning more closely with Western institutions like the EU and NATO - the annexation of Crimea made this possible - Crimea’s proximity to Russia, the ability to supply it via the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, and the support from local pro-Russian populations made it a feasible and manageable goal BALTIC STATES: THE IMPLICATION OF RUSSIA & NATO RUSSIA’S AGGRESSION Russia is not done with Ukraine and may continue exerting influence in the region Russia might avoid direct military action in the Baltic States or expand beyond its current presence in Georgia, but it is likely to push its influence in these areas Furthermore, Russia's actions in its conflict with Georgia in 2008 served as a warning to NATO to keep its distance. Similarly, NATO's response in 2014 aimed to send a clear message to Russia: “This far west and no farther” NATO’S RESPONSE TO RUSSIA’S AGGRESSION  ❖ Military – deploy warplanes to the Baltic States, conduct military exercises in Poland, and (America) planning to pre-position military equipment close to Russia ❖ Diplomacy – diplomatic visits by defense and foreign ministers to reassure countries like the Baltic States, Georgia, and Moldova to reassure them of support ❖ Collective Defense – Article 5 of NATO’s Charter Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization Charter “an armed attack against one or more [NATO member states] in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all” this principle was invoked after the terrorist attacks in the United States on September 11, 2001, leading to NATO’s involvement in Afghanistan it ensures that if Russia were to attack a NATO member, such as one of the Baltic States, NATO would be obligated to respond RUSSIA’S STRATEGIES & INTEREST IN BALTIC STATES STRATEGIES: ❖ Putin’s Historical Intellect – learned from past Soviet mistakes of overextending military and political resources - an overt assault on the Baltic States would be seen as overreaching and is therefore considered unlikely ❖ Energy Control – to exert pressure by manipulating energy prices or cutting off supply in the Baltic States, as Russia controls a significant portion of its energy supply, including heating ❖ Leveraging Russian Communities – to take advantage of the large Russian-speaking populations in the Baltic States Leveraging Russian Communities: Russia does not necessarily need to engage in direct military action to influence events in the Baltic States. Instead, it can use the large Russian-speaking populations in these countries as a lever. For example, Russia might claim that these populations face discrimination or lack citizenship rights as a pretext for intervention. INTERESTS:  ❖ Baltic States as Strategic Arc Russia views these states as potential buffer zones and part of a broader strategic arc that would connect its territory from the Baltic Sea to the Urals ❖ Moldova as Buffer Zones Moldova is also mentioned as a region of interest for Russia, indicating that Moscow views it as a potential buffer state and a strategic point in its broader geopolitical strategy MOLDOVA GEOGRAPHY: RUSSIA’S INTEREST MOLDOVA’S AMBITION – to close ties with Europe and European institutions ➔ however, Transnistria in Moldova is pro-Russian and is controlled by Russia, hence, may cause potential conflict toward integration with Europe ➔ Moldova's economic dependence on Russia and the threat posed by Transnistria complicate its efforts to align more closely with the European Union and NATO - Russia uses economic power to prevent Moldova from joining the EU or NATO former Bessarabia RUSSIA’S INTEREST IN MOLDOVA ❖ Moldova’s geographical location - access to the Black Sea – a crucial waterway for Russia, a buffer zone - Carpathian Mountains as a flat corridor into Russia – controlling this corridor would give Russia greater access to the Black Sea region GEORGIA: RUSSIAN OCCUPATION GEORGIA’S ASPIRATION – aspires to join NATO, not a threat to Russia, but NATO’s hesitates to their aspiration Russia’s Reasons: 1. Georgia-Russian War of 2008 large part of the country was already occupied by Russian troops - Abkhazia and South Ossetia 2. Lies in Caucasus Mountain where Russian troops are present, as well as in Armenia NATO’s Reasons: ❖ fear of provoking Russia as they have control over other regions in Georgia  RUSSIA’S ENERGY DOMINANCE RUSSIA’S OIL & GAS – most powerful weapon (not army, missile, and air force) the world's second-largest supplier of natural gas, after the United States uses this to in full extent (to negotiate better terms and maintain political leverage) “The better your relations with Russia, the less you pay for energy” ❖ Europen Dependency on Russia’s Oil & Gas - 25% of Europe's oil & gas comes from Russia - the closer the country is to Russia, the greater the dependency, hence, limiting countries' foreign policy options MAJOR PIPELINE ZONES OF OIL & GAS Nord Stream: Runs through the Baltic Sea to Germany (North) Yamal: Passes through Belarus to Poland and Germany Blue Stream: Extends to Turkey via the Black Sea (South) SOUTH STREAM PROJECT (2015 project plan) to use the same route but branch off to Hungary, Austria, Serbia, Bulgaria, and Italy ➔ to ensure that even during disputes with Ukraine it would still have a major route to large markets in Western Europe and the Balkans the project was canceled due to EU pressure ➔ Russia reached out to Turkey and came up with a new proposal “Turk Stream” to ensure a continued supply route to Western Europe and the Balkans ❖ South Stream & Turk Stream to circumvent (the act of finding a way of avoiding a difficulty or rule) Ukraine followed the price disputes ❖ European nations that stood to benefit from South Stream were markedly more restrained in their criticism of Russia during the Crimea crisis of 2014 PRESENT TIME RUSSIA: STRUGGLES & CHALLENGES REDUCTION IN REVENUE: ADJUSTMENT TO AMERICA’S STRATEGY ➔ Russia suffered from an economic decline in oil and gas sales extending the market to the Southeast, especially in China to increase their sales Russia continues to exert influence globally, especially in Latin America and the Middle East, while also maintaining a cautious eye on China’s growing power AMERICA’S ENERGY STRATEGY Shale Gas Boom: aims to supply Europe with liquefied natural gas (LNG), reducing Europe’s dependence on Russian gas ➔ Liquified Natural Gas: the gas needed to be liquified and shipped across the Atlantic, hence, Europe is building terminals to receive American DECLINING POPULATION Demographic Issues: Russia faces a declining population and poor health metrics, which are long-standing issues that current leaders, from czars to communists to modern presidents, still grapple with. RUSSIA CONCLUSION From the Grand Principality of Muscovy, through Peter the Great, Stalin, and now Putin, each Russian leader has been confronted by the same problems. It doesn’t matter if the ideology of those in control is czarist, communist, or crony capitalist—the ports still freeze, and the North European Plain is still flat. CHINA ??????? ?????????? ??????????