Scientific Polling and Elections PDF

SCIENTIFIC POLLING • Asking the Public Questions > Random Sample > Question Construction > Count Answers • Hard to get reliable scientific data on public opinion > Bias → Sample bias * Diff ways to come into contact w people * Question bias: * Call only through land lines: not a lot of ppl have th...

SCIENTIFIC POLLING • Asking the Public Questions > Random Sample > Question Construction > Count Answers • Hard to get reliable scientific data on public opinion > Bias → Sample bias * Diff ways to come into contact w people * Question bias: * Call only through land lines: not a lot of ppl have them ○ Assumes people know the current firearm laws * Call only through cell phones: some may not pick up ○ Asking the same question over a 14 yr period of time → Question bias □ Answer reflect the change in laws in firearms * Framing of questions can influence answers → Answer bias 2016 Election □ Clinton in Nov 2016 prediction on likelihood of winning > NY Times (Left leaning): 91% ○ Sample bias: May have asked people who are left leaning or people who read NY Times ○ Answer bias: Respondents might tell the researchers what they want to hear or they might just be lazy and not answer them truthfully > FiveThirtyEight: 67.9% > Fox News: 62.5% New Section 4 Page 1 ELECTING A PRESIDENT Electoral College • Cannot be a politicians • Almost always chosen by state legislatures • Can be union leaders, individuals who have donated to either party, activists, lobbyists, business men/women and even ordinary citizens • Electors vote for President after popular vote results • Electors bound by popular vote □ Electors required to vote with the popular vote of their state; except New Hampshire □ All electors in TX (and most states) count as 1 vote; exception New Hampshire * Winner take all • Why do we have an electoral college? □ Compromise between big and small states ○ Politicians would only campaign in populous states without an electoral college and could win without votes from states. With electoral college it forces politicians to be concerned with winning the electoral vote in small states. □ Founding fathers feared the common man's vote ○ Served as a check on popular vote ○ Originally electoral could vote independently from their states popular vote • No majority in electoral votes? • U.S House will cast one vote and break a tie • State's electoral college votes = # of representatives + 3 of senators ○ No state has fewer than three votes ○ California has the most votes: 55 (2 senators and 53 representatives) ○ Texas has second most votes: 38 (2 senators and 36 representatives) ○ 535 Total votes (100 senators and 435 representatives) ▪ Plus 3 votes from Washington D.C as the capitol of U.S; not considered to be part of Maryland Problems With Electoral College • Some cases very small states are overrepresented in electoral votes (Delaware, Rhode island) • Possible for a person who wins the popular vote to lose the election ○ Happened 5 times total ▪ 3 times in 19th century ▪ 2 times in 21st century ○ Bush v. Gore 2000 ▪ Gore won pop vote by about 1 million votes more but Bush won electoral college ○ Trump v. Clinton ▪ Clinton won popular vote by about 3 1/2 million more votes but lost electoral college • Winner take all system ○ When elections are tight in states all the electoral votes goes to the one with the most votes ○ So electoral college only reflects the majority of the popular vote in a single state not the entire nation New Section 4 Page 2 ELECTING CONGRESS • Single member districts ○ Each congressional district has one seat • Numerous candidates compete ○ Party Nomination ▪ Caucus and primaries ▪ Rep v. Rep ▪ Dem v. Dem ▪ To narrow down field to 1 individual who will compete for the congressional seat • Constituencies: ○ All the voters in that district choosing 1 person to represent them • Voters cast ballots for one individual ○ Candidate with plurality wins seat • Single member district voting= first pass the post ○ Like a race whoever runs the furthest wins Single Member District Effects • Voter Apathy ○ When you vote if the person who you vote for does not win you feel left out and unrepresented ○ Voters feel like they wasted their vote ○ Lower voter turnout than proportional voting system like in Europe • Share of the seats vs share of the votes ○ Does not correspond to the percentage of votes • Two party system ○ Small parties do very bad in single member districts ○ Even if a small party does win a couple of seats, congress if filled with more of the two major parties Congressional Districts • In years ending in 0s (once every decade) there is a national census • In years ending in 1s congress will take the data and give the seat • In years ending in 2s legislatures redraw district lines ○ Only happens when a state's number of districts has changed which usually does not happen every census • Congress provides seats to each state ○ California: 53 ○ TX: 36 • State Legislature draws districts Representation • Senate: represents whole state and all states have 2 seats • House: representation based on population size ○ Roughly 1 representative per abt 700,00 ppl • 17th amendment (1913): senators cannot be appointed and must be elected directly by the people ○ Prior to this they could be appointed by governors or state legislatures New Section 4 Page 3 GERRYMANDERING Austin: 2002 D • Divided into 2 by lines • Pink part is a safe seat for D • Yellow is rural part of TX that is R • Yellow safe spot for R • 2 districts kind of cancel each other out 2004 • Orange part added: larger rural areas to the district • Redrawn to create 3 R seats by diluting the city vote that leans D w rural R votes How can 1 represented be responsible for all these different groups of ppl w diff ideas and concerns? Orange part takes 9 hours to reach the bottom near Mexican border If you live in a district and serve jury duty you need to go to drive 9 hours to serve if you live in Austin Roughly 1,000 people can be the difference between two diff districts Cannot redraw districts on the basis of race New Section 4 Page 4 CAMPAIGNS Can be hard to appeal to such diverse pool of voters Multiple ways voters can interpret Candidates who raise a lot of money have a good chance at winning, but money is not everything Uses buzz words and symbols that act as cues and shortcut for voters New Section 4 Page 5