Demography PPTs PDF

Definitions and Concepts in Population Studies and Demography Population Studies Population studies may be defined as an empirical, statistical and mathematical study of human populations It is the study of inter relationship between population and socio-economic; cultural, and other variables. Therefore, any meaningful study of the population has to be interdisciplinary Important Aspects of the Population Studies What are the changes that are taking place in the size of the population and how are these changes brought about? What is the significance of these changes from the perspective of human welfare? Where the people found and what are the changes taking place in their distribution in communities? What kind of people are found in a given population group and how do those in one group differs from the other? Warren. S. Thompson Continued… The first question suggests that the study of population is associated with the changes in the population size or number of population. it is also concerned with the changes in the population size from the perspective of human welfare. The second question indicates that the study of population is related with the study of the migration and distribution of human population in various spatial divisions. The third question recommends the study is also linked with the structure and characteristics (composition) of the population. Population Studies and Demography The discipline of the study of human population is generally known by two terms; (1) Population Studies (2) Demography. These terms are often used interchangeably In a narrow sense the term ‘Demography’ may be used primarily as concerned with quantitative relations among demographic phenomena In a broad sense to include the study of inter relationship between population and socio-economic; cultural, and other variables Interrelationship between Population Studies and Other Disciplines John Graunt, termed his empirical observations in mortality as ‘natural and political’ observation The mathematical, biological and social character of the demography was implied from the very beginning The historical development of population studies also suggests that scholars from different disciplines have contributed towards its development Population Studies and Mathematics Quantification is an important element in population studies, as population data are available in a discrete manner To study the population size, growth, structure and components is entirely carried out with the help of mathematics Population Studies and Statistics Population studies also depend on statistics as a tool The theory of probability is extremely useful for the analysis of mortality Actuarial Science is being used for the construction of Life Tables Population Studies and Biology Population studies and biology are also closely related Fertility is biologically determined fact. Only female can give birth to children and that too only during a certain age span The age, sex differentials in mortality are also determined biologically Further the sex ratio amongst the new born are biologically determined Population Studies and Sociology According to Davis (i) Fertility in connection with attitude and social institutions (ii) Population change in relation to social and economic change (iii) Labour force with respect to population structure and social organisation and (iv) The family with regard to demographic behaviour. Population Studies and Sociology Broom Selznick treated population as one of the nine principal “Elements of Sociological Analysis” for the discussion of six special topics like, family, city, minorities, industrial sociology, political sociology and criminal behaviour. Population Studies and Psychology Several questions connected with family planning and fertility regulation can be answered only when the reproductive behaviour of the individuals is understood in the context of the social standards or cultural norms which influence and govern such behaviour. E.g. what is the family size norm in the community? How is it determined? etc. Population Studies and Economics Population growth, size and distribution cannot be discussed rationally except the context of economic growth The topics emerged over the years and continue to occupy an important place in both the subjects are population and development, manpower studies, the economics of fertility etc Population Studies and Geography Population scientists are usually interested in the geographical distribution of the population and its movement between rural and urban areas, e.g., rapid population growth, urbanisation etc., assume different forms in different regions. Population Studies and Law According to Chandrasekhar, population laws may be defined as ‘that body of law which relates directly or indirectly to the three basic demographic variables of fertility, mortality and migration and their various components’. The Indian Medical Termination of Pregnancy Act (MTP) 1972 has made induced abortions fairly easy. Therefore, the law of land affect an important demographic variable fertility. Law for Age at Marriage Law for Registration of Vital Events Thank you..!!!! Definitions, Concepts Used and Measurements of Fertility Studies Basic Measures of Fertility Demographic Transition Theory What is the Basic Idea? The demographic transition model seeks to explain the transformation of countries from having high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates. In developed countries this transition began in the eighteenth century and continues today. Less developed countries began the transition later and are still in the midst of earlier stages of the model. CBR and CDR The model is based on the change in crude birth rate (CBR) and crude death rate (CDR) over time. Each is expressed per thousand population. The CBR is determined by taking the number of births in one year in a country, dividing it by the country's population, and multiplying the number by 1000. In 1998, the CBR in the USA was 14 per 1000 (14 births per 1000 people) while in Kenya it was 32 per 1000. The crude death rate is similarly determined. The number of deaths in one year are divided by the population and that figure is multiplied by 1000. This yields a CDR of 9 in the U.S. and 14 in Kenya. Demographic Transition Model Stage A/1 Both high birth rates and death rates fluctuate in the first stage of the population model giving a small population growth (shown by the small total population graph). Stage 1 - High Fluctuating Birth Rate and Death rate are both high. Population growth is slow and fluctuating. Reasons Birth Rate is high as a result of: Lack of family planning High Infant Mortality Rate: putting babies in the 'bank' Need for workers in agriculture Religious beliefs Children as economic assets Death Rate is high because of: High levels of disease Famine Lack of clean water and sanitation Lack of health care War Competition for food from predators such as rats Lack of education DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL Stage B/2 Birth rates remain high, but death rates fall rapidly causing a high population growth (as shown by the total population graph). Stage 2 - Early Expanding Birth Rate remains high. Death Rate is falling. Population begins to rise steadily. Reasons Death Rate is falling as a result of: Improved health care (e.g. Smallpox vaccine) Improved hygiene (Water for drinking boiled) Improved sanitation Improved food production and storage Improved transport for food Decreased Infant Mortality Rates Demographic Transition Model Stage C/3 Birth rates now fall rapidly while death rates continue to fall. The total population begins to peak and the population increase slows to a constant. Stage 3 - Late Expanding Birth Rate starts to fall. Death Rate continues to fall. Population rising. Reasons: Family planning available Lower Infant Mortality Rate Increased mechanization reduces need for workers Increased standard of living Changing status of women Demographic Transition Model Stage D/4 Both birth rates and death rates remain low, fluctuating with 'baby booms' and epidemics of illnesses and disease. This results in a steady population. Stage 4 - Low Fluctuating Birth Rate and Death Rate both low Population steady Demographic Transition Model Stage E/5? A stage 5 was not originally thought of as part of the DTM, but some northern countries are now reaching the stage where total population is declining where birth rates have dropped below death rates. Is the model universally applicable? Like all models, the demographic transition model has its limitations. It failed to consider, or to predict, several factors and events: 1 Birth rates in several MEDCs have fallen below death rates (Germany, Sweden). This has caused, for the first time, a population decline which suggests that perhaps the model should have a fifth stage added to it. 2 The model assumes that in time all countries pass through the same four stages. It now seems unlikely, however, that many LEDCs, especially in Africa, will ever become industrialized. 3 The model assumes that the fall in the death rate in Stage 2 was the consequence of industrialization. Initially, the death rate in many British cities rose, due to the insanitary conditions which resulted from rapid urban growth, and it only began to fall after advances were made in medicine. The delayed fall in the death rate in many developing countries has been due mainly to their inability to afford medical facilities. In many countries, the fall in the birth rate in Stage 3 has been less rapid than the model suggests due to religious and/or political opposition to birth control (Brazil), whereas the fall was much more rapid, and came earlier, in China following the government- introduced ‘onechild’ policy. The timescale of the model, especially in several South-east Asian countries such as Hong Kong and Malaysia, is being squashed as they develop at a much faster rate than did the early industrialized countries. 4 Countries that grew as a consequence of emigration from Europe (USA, Canada, Australia) did not pass through the early stages of the model. COUNTRIES WITH RAPID POPULATION GROWTH When a country's population grows quickly it has the following effects The large number of young people have to have services e.g. schools provided for them There are fewer older people, so less money needs to be spent on them There is a relatively small proportion of adults of working age; these people provide the wealth for the services There is pressure on the countryside with the extra population to feed; this can result in overgrazing, over cropping and soil erosion People move to the cities to find work; developing countries with rapidly growing populations have the fastest growing cities in the world Shanty towns grow up on the edge of cities; these are self-constructed buildings of poor quality which can lack vital services such as water, electricity and sanitation Some people apply to migrate to developed countries in order to improve their standard of living POPULATIONS GROWING TOO QUICKLY THE STEPS THAT HAVE BEEN TAKEN TO REDUCE THE PROBLEMS CAUSED BY A RAPIDLY GROWING POPULATION INCLUDE EDUCATION ABOUT FAMILY PLANNING, WITH THE INCREASED AVAILABILITY OF A RANGE OF CONTRACEPTIVE METHODS EXTRA TAXES FOR PARENTS WHO HAVE LARGE FAMILIES EXTRA BENEFITS FOR THE PARENTS THAT HAVE ONLY ONE OR TWO CHILDREN RAISING THE AGE OF MARRIAGE INCREASING THE INDUSTRY AND WEALTH IN A COUNTRY - THIS ALLOWS IT TO "AFFORD" THE INCREASED POPULATION WHEN A COUNTRY DEVELOPS - THAT IS HAS A HIGHER QUALITY OF LIFE, HIGHER STANDARD OF LIVING AND INCREASED WEALTH - THE BIRTH RATE GOES DOWN. THIS IS THE GREATEST INFLUENCE IN REDUCING PROBLEMS CAUSED BY RAPID POPULATION GROWTH. COUNTRIES WITH SLOW POPULATION GROWTH When a country's population grows slowly it has the following effects It has an ageing population, so large amounts of money is spent in providing services, e.g. healthcare, for older people As there is fewer young people less money needs to be spent on this age group There could be a shortage of workers in the future, with so few young people Migrants move into the country, often to work in the low paid, low status jobs that would otherwise be difficult to find workers for POPULATIONS GROWING TOO SLOWLY Governments have been concerned when the population of their country is only growing slowly. Indeed some countries, e.g. Hungary and Germany have recently had population decline. The governments have responded by Giving mothers longer paid maternity leave; giving paternity leave to fathers Generous child benefit payments Raising the age of retirement - this increases the workforce and reduces the amount that has to be spent on pensions POPULATION PYRAMIDS P YRAMID 1 : HERE THE BASE IS VERY WIDE INDICATING A VERY HIGH BIRTH RATE. THE WIDTH DROPS OFF VERY QUICKLY. THIS MEANS PEOPLE MUST BE DYING. VERY FEW REACH OLD AGE. FEW COUNTRIE S ARE STILL IN THIS STAGE TODAY BUT SOME RAINFORE ST POPULATIONS WOULD DISPLAY THIS PATTERN. IMP LICATIONS : CLEAR NEED FOR INVESTMENT INTO WATER SUPPLIE S, HEALTH CARE, FOOD SUPPLIE S AND HOUSING TO REDUCE DEATH RATES. Population pyramid for Mozambique 2000 In this graph, notice that in 2000 the 0-4 age group contained the largest number of people, with the numbers thereafter declining steadily as the ages increase. The graph matches stage 1 in the model. P YRAMID 2 : STILL A LARGE BASE SO HIGH BIRTH RATE BUT ALSO A WIDER AND TAL LER PYRAMID AS MORE P EOP LE ARE LIVING TO OLDE R AGE S. THIS IS STAGE TWO OF THE DE MOGRAP HIC TRANSIT ION MODE L AND INCLUDE S MANY COUNTRIE S IN AF RICA SUCH AS KENYA. IMP LICATION : PROBABLE NEE D TO INVE ST IN EDUCATION ABOUT FAMILY P LANNING TO RE DUCE BIRTH RATE. P OSSIBLY INDICATE S THAT WOME N ARE UNDE RVALUE D IN SOCIE TY SO THIS COULD BE TACKLED. Projected population pyramid for Mozambique 2025 In the second graph, the largest group in Mozambique in 2025 is still the 0-4 age group, but there are nearly as many people in the 5-29 age groups. Now the population pyramid matches stage 2. P YRAMID 3 : NOTE THE MORE ‘DOME D’ SHAPE. IT ME ANS MANY PEOP LE ARE LIVING TO OLDER AGE S AS QUALITY OF LIF E IMPROVE S. THE RE ARE ALSO PROP ORTIONATE LY FE WE R BIRTHS. THIS IS STAGE THRE E OF THE DE MOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODE L. CHILE WOULD BE A GOOD E XAMP LE. IMP LICATION : AS THE P OP ULATION BE COME S INCRE ASINGLY OLDER THE RE MAY BE A NEE D TO INVE ST IN FACIL IT IE S AND SE RVICE S F OR THE M. STIL L A NEE D F OR CONTINUED INVE STME NT IN FAMILY PLANNING. P YRAMID 4 : VERY SMALL BASE DUE TO THE VERY LOW BIRTH RATES AND DEATH RATES DISPLAYED IN THE WIDE TOP. THIS WOULD BE REPRESENTATIVE OF AUSTRALIA THAT HAS RECENTLY COME THROUGH STAGE THREE OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL. IMP LICATION: SHOULD THE SITUATION CONTINUE THERE ARE SERIOUS IMPLICAT IONS ABOUT PROVIDING FOR THE ELDERLY POPULATION (INCRE ASING COST OF HEALTH CARE, STATE PENSIONS) ESPECIALLY AS THE WORKING POPULATION BECOMES PROPORTIONAL LY SMALLE R. THIS IS A MAJOR CONCERN IN MUCH OF THE DEVELOPED WORLD. Population pyramid for the UK 2000 Notice how in the UK 2000 pyramid there is a bulge in the area of the 30-34 and 35-39 age groups, with the numbers thereafter reducing fairly steadily as the ages increase. This matches stage 4 of the demographic transition model. Projected population pyramid for the UK 2025 Compare this to the 2025 pyramid, which would be stage 5 in the model. Here the bulge extends much further, covering the age groups 30-64, with the numbers beginning to reduce significantly only after 64. Population pyramids can also be influenced by: Migration: Likelihood of extra young males as these are likely to migrate. Famines: Clear drops in population especially among the very young as these are most likely to suffer. War: Clear drop off in male populations of fighting age. Make sure you can read data from a pyramid – try the one in the questions section. Population pyramids can also show the percentage of the population, which is described as being "dependent". These are the groups of people who rely on the economically active members of society. Dependents are classified as those under working age (0 - 14 years old) and those who have retired (over 65). They rely on the working age group of people between 15 and 64. Population pyramids can also show significant events. In Germany there are far more males between 20 and 35, than there are females of a similar age. This shows up quite clearly on a pyramid, and is due to the huge numbers of male immigrant workers that came into the country through the 1990's. They came to Germany to find work, and left their families at home in places such as Yugoslavia and Turkey. Another type of event that can be traced easily on population pyramids, is the effect of war. Often this leads to large in-balances in the population, with far more women than men of fighting age remaining as the men have been killed in battle. Population pyramids can be used to help planning for the future also, as they can be used to project the percentages of certain age-groups in the population over the next 50 years. In this way plans can be introduced to cope with the forecast changes, such as the ageing population in the UK. THANK YOU….!!!!!! Estimation of Mid Year Population Estimation of Mid Year Population If the last census is within the same year for which vital rate is required, the census population figure can be taken If the two censuses are conducted with a gap of one year, mid-year is calculated by half of the difference in population assuming that the increment or decrement in population size is uniform during the inter censal period Continued... If the data of the estimate has between two censuses more than one year apart (generally it will be 5 years, 10 years), it is still possible to estimate the mid-year population by using the formula given below: P = P1 + n / N(P2-P1) Where, P is the mid-year population to be estimated. P1 is the initial population at the first census. P2 is the final population at the second census. N is the number of months between two censuses. n the number of months between the date of P 1 and the date of estimation. Mid Year Population for 2007, India We know that, mid-year population, P = P1 + n / N (P2-P1) P2 = 1210 million P1 = 1027 million N = 10 and n = 6 So, P = 1027 + 72/ 120*(1210 -1027) => P = 1027 + 0.6 * 183 => P = 1027 + 109.8 => P = 1136.8 million The mid-year population of the India for 2007 was 1136.8 million. Introduction to Demographic Methods Glossary Abridged life table: life table containing data by intervals of 5 or 10 years of age. Actuarial method of life table: method used in the construction of an abridged life table. Assumes that the population distribution is the same as the life table distribution and that the life table distribution is linear between age x and x+n. Age pyramid: detailed picture of the age-sex structure of a population. Consists of bars representing age groups in ascending order pyramided on one another. The number, or percentage, in an age group is indicated by length of its bar from central axis. Absolute pyramids show differences in overall size of total population and in number at each age. Percent pyramids show relative differences in population size at each age-sex group. Age ratio: the number of persons of a specific age is compared to the number of persons of adjacent ages. If the ratio is close to 100 then there are about the same coverage errors in the age groups. Age: in demography, age is defined in completed years i.e. age of an individual at last birthday. Age-dependency ratio: proportion of children less than 15 and elderly 65+ relative to the population of “working ages” i.e. 15-64. Age-order specific fertility rate AOSFR: number of births of a specific order per 1000 women of a specific age (group). Age-order-specific marriage rate AOSMR: number of marriages of order i per 1000 women of a specific age (group) who are at their i-1th marriage. Is always sex specific. Age-sex specific activity rate: active population in a specific age-sex group per 100 population in that specific age-sex group. Age-sex specific migration rate: number of migrants of a specific sex and specific age (group) per 1000 persons of that sex and age (group). Age-specific death rate: number of deaths per 1000 persons of a specific age (group). Age-specific divorce rate: number of divorces per 1000 women (or men) of a specific age (group). Age-specific enrollment rate: proportion of persons of a specific age (group) enrolled in any regular educational institution. Age-specific fertility rate ASFR: number of births per 1000 women of a specific age (group). Age-specific literacy rate: proportion of persons of a specific age (group) who are literate. Age-specific marital fertility rate: number of legitimate births per 1000 married women of a specific age (group). Age-specific marriage rate ASMR: number of marriages per 1000 women (or men) of a specific age (group). Is always sex-specific. Age-specific migration rate: number of migrants of a specific age (group) per 1000 persons of that age (group). Age-specific mortality rate: number of deaths per 1000 persons of a specific age (group) = age specific death rate Alien: person included in census, register, etc… of a country but non-citizen thereof. An alien,however, is usually citizen of another country. That country is his/her legal nationality. Balancing equation: most basic method in demography for decomposing population change into its components. Pt – P0 = B - D + I – O Where Pt = population at the end of the period; P0 = population at the beginning of the period; B = births during the period; D = deaths during the period; I = in-migration during the period; and O = out-migration during the period. Birth interval: time between successive live births. Birth probability: probability of having an ith order birth for women who already have i-1 births. Bookkeeping equation: cf balancing equation. Case fatality rate: proportion of persons with a specific cause who die from it. Cause-specific death rate: number of deaths attributable to a specific cause per 100,000 population. Cause-specific death ratio: percentage of all deaths attributable to a specific cause. Census: the total process of collecting, compiling, analyzing and publishing or otherwise disseminating demographic, economic and social data pertaining to all persons in a country or in a well delineated part of a country at a specified time. (United Nations) The essential characteristics of a census are universality, simultaneity, and individual enumeration. Childbearing years: Ages at which a woman can bear a child. The ages traditionally used in demography are 15 to 44 (or 49). Child-dependency ratio: proportion of children less than 15 relative to the population of “working ages” i.e. 15-64. Children ever born CEB: total number of children a woman has ever given birth to. Child-woman ratio: number of children 0-4 years old relative to number of women of reproductive ages. Citizenship: legal nationality. May be acquired by birth or naturalization. Cohort probability of death before age one: the portion of deaths under 1 in year y and the portion of deaths under 1 in year y+1 occurring to births in year y are combined and divided by the births in year y. Cohort: group of persons who experience an event in the same time period e.g. birth, marriage, etc. Cohort-component method: calculation of estimates by age groups on the basis of separate allowances for the components of population change. Estimates net migrants as difference between actual population at time t and the population at time zero survived to time t. Three ways of estimation: forward, reverse, and average. Complete life table: life table containing data for every single year of age from birth to the last applicable age. Consensual union: establishment of a marital union without recorded legal sanction. Conventional Infant mortality rate: number of infant death per 1000 births. Re. infant mortality rate. Crude activity rate: proportion of the total population in the labor force = crude labor force participation rate. Crude birth rate CBR: number of births per 1000 population. Crude death rate CDR: number of deaths per 1000 population. Crude divorce rate: number of divorces per 1000 population. Crude enrollment rate: proportion of population enrolled in any regular educational institution. Crude in-migration rate: number of in-migrants per 1000 population. Crude literacy rate: proportion of the population who are literate. Crude marriage rate: number of marriages per 1000 population. Crude net migration rate: difference between the number of in-migrants and the number of out-migrants per 1000 population. Crude out-migration rate: number of out-migrants per 1000 population. Crude rate: the number of events is divided by the total population. Cumulative order-specific birth rate (up to age x) COSFR: total number of births of a specific order per 1000 women at or below a specific age (group) x. De facto: demographic events are registered at the place of occurrence. De jure: demographic events are registered at the place of usual residence. Death: permanent disappearance of all evidence of life at any time after live birth has taken place = post-natal cessation of vital functions without capability of resuscitation. This definition excludes foetal deaths. (WHO) Demographic analysis: study of components of variation and change in demographic variables and the relationships between them. This is also called formal demography. Demographic and Health Surveys: nationally representative household surveys carried out in about fifty developing nations by Macro International Inc. The objective of the surveys is to provide data concerning fertility, family planning and maternal and child health that can be used by program managers, policymakers and researchers. In the household questionnaire there are questions on household composition, education and occupation of the wife and husband, household facilities, and household possessions, etc. Women of reproductive age in the households are identified and interviewed. The woman’s questionnaire includes sections on background characteristics, a birth history, knowledge and use of family planning, breastfeeding, immunization and health of children under age five, marriage, and fertility preferences, etc. Demography: study of the population in its static and dynamic aspects. The static aspects include characteristics such as composition by age, sex, race, marital status, economic characteristics. The dynamic aspects are fertility, mortality, nuptiality, and migration. Direct standardization: the rates from two or more study populations are applied to a common population distribution (standard population). Simplest and most straightforward technique. Provides the best basis for determining the difference between two crude rates. The standard population is arbitrary, and can be any one of the study populations, their average, or any other population distribution. Divorce rate among married: number of divorces per 1000 married persons. Can be sex- specific. Divorce rate specific for duration of marriage: number of divorces per 1000 persons who have been married for a specific duration. Divorce: final legal dissolution of a marriage, that is, that separation of husband and wife which confer on the parties the right to remarriage under civil, religious and/or other provisions, according to the laws of each country. (United Nations) Duration (of marriage)-specific fertility rate: number of legitimate births per 1000 women who have been married for a specific duration. Education: enrollment at any regular educational institution, public or private, for systematic instruction at any level of education during a well-defined and recent time period (United Nations). Emigrant: an international migrant departing to another country by crossing the international boundary. Employed: in censuses or surveys, refers to persons who work for pay or profit during a specified week and those who had a job or business that week but were absent from it because of vacation, illness, etc. Employee: a person who works for a public or private employer and receives remuneration in wages, salary, commission, tips, piece-rates, or pay in kind. Employer: a person who operates his/her own economic enterprise or engages independently in a profession or trade, and hires one or more employees. Ethnic group: sub-race. Covers racial, nationality, cultural or linguistic groups. To varying extents, each such a group will have a common descent, history, and habitat. Fecundability: probability that a woman will conceive during a menstrual cycle. Fecundity: physiological capacity to conceive. Fertility: manifestation of fecundity = natality. Fetal death rate: number of fetal deaths divided by number of births plus number of fetal deaths. Fetal death ratio: number of fetal deaths divided by number of births. Fetal death: death prior to the complete expulsion or extraction from its mother of a product of conception, irrespective of the duration of pregnancy. The death is indicated by the fact that after such separation the fetus does not breathe or show any other evidence of life, such as beating of the heart, pulsation of the umbilical cord, or definite movement of voluntary muscles. (WHO) Fetal death is subdivided into three categories: Early fetal loss = loss before 20 weeks of gestation. Intermediate fetal loss = loss between 20th and 27th week of gestation. Late fetal loss = stillbirth = loss after 27 weeks of gestation. General activity rate: proportion of persons of working age who are in the labor force. General divorce rate: number of divorces per 1000 persons age 15 and more. General enrolment rate: proportion of population 5-34 years old enrolled in any regular educational institution. General fertility rate GFR: number of births per 1000 women of reproductive ages. General marital fertility rate: number of births per 1000 married women of reproductive ages. General marriage rate: number of marriages per 1000 population age 15 and older. Note: this rate is generally given sex-specific Gravidity: number of pregnancies a woman has had. Gross migration: in-migrants plus out-migrants = migration turnover. Gross nuptiality table: assumes no person dies before passing through the marriageable ages. Same technique as in the life table construction. Allows one to determine what proportion of a cohort of single persons would be married at various ages assuming that the marriage rates used continued to prevail and there is no mortality. Gross rate of population interchange: proportion of in-migration (or out-migration) between two populations. Gross reproduction rate GRR: number of daughters expected to be born alive to a hypothetical cohort of women (usually 1000) if no one dies during childbearing years and if the same schedule of age-specific rates applied throughout the child bearing years. Illiterate: an illiterate may not read and write at all, or may read and write only figures and his/her own name, or may only read and write a ritual phrase which has been memorized. Immigrant: an international migrant who enter the area from a place outside the country. Indirect standardization: the rates from a standard population are applied to the distribution of two or more study populations. The choice of the standard rates is arbitrary. Indirect standardization can be deceptive. Is to be used when there is no rates available for study populations i.e. only counts are available, or when the rates for study populations are not reliable because of small numbers of events or population. Infant mortality rate IMR: number of infant deaths per 1000 births. IMR = neonatal mortality rate + post-neonatal mortality rate Infecundity: lack of physiological capacity to conceive = sterility. Infertility: inability to bear a live birth. In-migrant: a person who moves in a political area within the same country. Intercensal period: period between two censuses. Labor force: involves the carrying on of an activity from which the person derives, or attempts to derive, pay or profit. Persons who are neither employed nor unemployed are not in the labor force. Language: one of the most sensitive indices of ethnic origin because linguistic differences tend to persist until complete assimilation. The United Nations recommends three types of languages data: Language spoken at home in early childhood or language of parents (mother tongue). Indicator of ethnic group. Language currently spoken, or most often spoken in present home (usual language). Indicator of ethnic origin. Can also be used to see degree of assimilation and integration of foreign stock or of specific ethnic minorities. Ability to speak various languages (designated languages). Indicator of linguistic skills of population, both native and foreign born. Legitimate fertility rate: number of legitimate births per 1000 married women of reproductive ages. Level-specific enrollment rate: proportion of persons of a specific age (group) enrolled in a school at a specific level. Lexis diagram: graphical representation of the relationships between demographic events in time and persons at risk. Each demographic event is characterized by two numbers: the time (e.g. year) at which it occurs and the age (or other duration measure) of the person to whom it occurs. By convention, time is represented on the horizontal axis, and age (or other duration measure) is represented on the vertical axis. Life line: straight line in a Lexis diagram representing a person’s life. The line begins on the time axis at the time of the person’s birth, continues diagonally upwards, and ends at the age/time point representing the person’s death (or other demographic event). The sum of all the life line lengths in a particular portion of the diagram represents person-years lived or exposure. Life lines can be looked at as cohort or period data. Literacy: ability of a person to both read and write, with understanding, a short statement on his everyday life (United Nations). The language or languages in which a person can read and write are not a factor in determining literacy. Live birth interval: interval between two live births = pregnancy interval plus waiting time due to non-live births. Live birth: complete expulsion or extraction from its mother of a product of conception, irrespective of the duration of pregnancy, which after such separation, breathes or shows any other evidence of life such as beating of the heart, pulsation of the umbilical cord, or definite movement of voluntary muscles, whether or not the umbilical cord has been cut or the placenta is attached; each product of such a birth is considered a live born (WHO). Marital status: the United Nations recommends the following minimum list: single (never married), married and not legally separated, widowed and not remarried, divorced and not remarried, married but legally separated. Note that ever married = married + widowed + divorced + separated Additional options to take into account when appropriate = consensual union (common-law, extra-legal or de facto unions), and practices such as polygamy, concubinage and inherited widows. Marriage squeeze: There are less men than women in the marriageable ages. This may for example be due to wars which predominantly kill men. Marriage: act, ceremony or process by which the legal relationship of husband and wife (of persons of opposite sex) is constituted. The legality of the union may be established by civil, religious, or other means as recognized by the laws of each country. (United Nations) Maternal mortality rate: number of deaths due to maternal causes per 1000 women of reproductive ages. Maternal mortality ratio: number of deaths due to maternal causes per 100,000 births. Maternal mortality: = maternal death = death of a woman while pregnant or within 42 days of termination of pregnancy, irrespective of the duration or site of the pregnancy, from any cause related to or aggravated by the pregnancy or its management but not from accidental causes (WHO). Member of producers’ co-operative: a person who is an active member of a producer’s co- operative, regardless of the industry in which it is established. Midpoint population: approximation of the average population exposed to risk. = (population at the beginning of the period + population at the end) / 2. Migrant: a person who moves from one political area to another. Migration counterstream: migration in opposite direction of stream. Migration stream: a group of migrants having a common origin and destination in a given migration period. Migration: geographic or spatial mobility involving a relatively permanent change in usual residence between clearly defined political or statistical units. Migration has two dimension: time and space. Mover: a person who changes residence. Nationality: country of present citizenship, or country or other area of origin, sometimes an extinct country or a country that once had very different boundaries. Natural fertility: fertility in the absence of deliberate parity-specific control. Neonatal mortality rate: number of deaths of newborns in the first month of life per 1000 births. Net immigration: immigrants minus emigrants. Net migration: in-migrants minus out-migrants. Note that net migration for an area is often used to include both international and internal migration. Net nuptiality tables: takes into account mortality as well as marriage. Indicates the pace at which a group of single persons is decreased annually by marriage and death. Also gives the probability of a single person marrying at each year of age according to the current nuptiality and mortality rates. Provides information on the average age at marriage. Multiple decrement life table techniques are needed. Net reproduction rate NRR: average number of daughters expected to be born alive to a hypothetical cohort of women if the same schedule of age-specific rates applied throughout the childbearing years, but acknowledging that some of the cohort will die. Non-migrant: non-movers plus local movers. Occupation: kind of work done during the time-reference period established for data on economic characteristics by the person employed (or performed previously by the unemployed) irrespective of the industry or the status in which the person should be classified (United Nations). Old-age dependency ratio: proportion of adults over age 65 relative to the population of “working ages” i.e. 15-64. Order-specific divorce rate: number of divorces of order i per 1000 persons who have married i times. Alternative interpretation = number of divorces of order i per 1000 persons who have divorced i-1 times. Order-specific fertility rate OSFR: number of births of a specific order per 1000 women of reproductive ages. Order-specific marriage rate OSMR: number of marriages of order i per 1000 persons age 15 and older with marriage order i-1. Can be general or sex-specific. Out-migrant: a person who moves out of a political area within the same country. Out-of-wedlock (illegitimate) fertility rate: number of illegitimate births per 1000 unmarried women of reproductive ages. Own-account worker: a person who operates his/her own economic enterprise or engages independently in a profession or trade, and hires no employees. Parity progression ratio PPR: probability that a woman has an i+1st birth given that she already has had i births. Parity: number of children born alive to a woman. Partial migration rates: number of migrants to an area from a particular origin, or from an area to a particular destination, per 1000 of the population at either origin or destination. Paternal general fertility rate: number of births per 1000 men age 15 to 54. Personal Identification Number (PIN): method used in Sweden, Norway, Denmark, and Israel. Each individual is assigned a unique number used for the rest of his/her life on all pertinent documents in the national data system. The system acts as a census because it is continuously updated by births, deaths, immigrants, and emigrants. Persons not classified by status: experienced workers with status unknown or inadequately described and unemployed persons not previously employed. Population studies: study of the relationships between demographic variables and other variables such as social and economic variables. Post-neonatal mortality rate: number of deaths of babies between the 1st and 12th month of life per 1000 births. Postpartum non-susceptibility subinterval: time from previous pregnancy outcome to resumption of ovulation. For first order births, use date of marriage or beginning of sexual relations to start. Pregnancy interval: time between successive pregnancies of a woman = sum of time of postpartum non-susceptibility subinterval plus conception-wait subinterval plus gestational subinterval. Primary sterility: never able to produce a child. Probability: in demography, probability indicates the likelihood that some event will (or will not) occur to some group of exposed persons during the course of some period of time. Consider the number of people exposed to risk at the start of the period. Probabilities are special cases of a ratio. Rate of natural increase: crude birth rate – crude death rate. Rate: Measure of the frequency with which an event occurs in a defined population during a given length of time. Consider the average number of people exposed i.e. midpoint population. Rates are special cases of a ratio and tend to be associated with population change. Ratio: value obtained by dividing one quantity by another. Ratio indicate the relative magnitude of a numerator and a denominator. Ratios tend to be descriptive statistics. Reproductivity: extent to which a group is replacing its own numbers by natural processes. Residual method of estimating net migration: estimate net migration as difference in population counts at two time periods and net vital events in-between i.e. subtracts an estimate of natural increase during the period from the net change in population during the period. Secondary sterility: sterility after one or more children have been born. Sex ratio at birth: number of male births per 100 female births. In most population there are more male births than female births. Sex ratio at death: number of male deaths per 100 female deaths. Sex ratio of migrants: number of male migrants per 100 female migrants. Sex ratio: proportion of males relative to females in a population. In general, the sex ratio is higher at young ages, then the gap narrows as age increases. Finally by middle age, the sex ratio goes below 100. Sex-specific migration rate: number of migrants of a specific sex per 1000 persons of that sex. Specific rate: the number of events is divided by some homogeneous sub-group of the total population. Standardization: procedure of adjustment of crude rates to eliminate from them the effect of differences in population composition with respect to age and/or other variables. Note: adjusted rates have no direct meaning in themselves. They must be compared with the original crude rates or with other adjusted rates using the same standard. Standardized mortality ratio SMR: in standardization, SMR equals actual number of events in the study population divided by the expected number of events in the study population. Note: SMR has no meaning by itself. It should be compared with other SMRs. Relative values indicate higher or lower standardized incidences of events. Stationary population: population whose total number and distribution by age do not change with time i.e. number of births = number of deaths. Such an hypothetical population could be obtained if the number of births per year remained constant for a long period of time and each cohort of births experienced the current observed mortality rates throughout life. Status: status of a person in the labor force with respect to his/her employment, that is whether s/he is (or was, if unemployed) an employer, own-account worker, employee, unpaid family worker, or a member of a producers’ cooperative (United Nations). The categories can be combined or further subdivided to better reflect a country’s reality. Sterility: lack of physiological capacity to conceive = infecundity. Survey: method to obtain information from a sample representative of some population. Can be single-round retrospective, multi-round follow-up (prospective), or dual record. The essential characteristics of a survey are that it is representative of some population and that its smaller size than a census allows collection of more in-depth information that can then be generalized Total fertility rate TFR: number of children a woman will have if she lives through all the reproductive ages and follows the age-specific fertility rates of a given time. Total marriage rate: total number of marriages a person will have at the end of his/her marriageable age if he/she follows the given schedule of marriage. Is always sex specific. Underemployment: difference between the amount of work performed by persons in employment and the amount of work they would normally be able or willing to perform. Unemployed: in censuses or surveys, refers to persons who were looking for pay or profit work during the past four weeks before a specified time and were not still working at that specified time. Unpaid family worker: a person who works a specified minimum amount of time (at least 1/3 of normal working hours), without pay, in an economic enterprise operated by a related person living in the same household. Vital registration: administrative system designed to collect data on the vital events happening in a population (generally concerned with live births, deaths, marriages, and divorces). Helps understand demographic characteristics of different populations at different points in time. The essential characteristics of a vital registration system are universality and continuity. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike License. Your use of this material constitutes acceptance of that license and the conditions of use of materials on this site. Copyright 2008, The Johns Hopkins University and Stan Becker. All rights reserved. Use of these materials permitted only in accordance with license rights granted. Materials provided “AS IS”; no representations or warranties provided. User assumes all responsibility for use, and all liability related thereto, and must independently review all materials for accuracy and efficacy. May contain materials owned by others. User is responsible for obtaining permissions for use from third parties as needed. Important Population Issues in India Important Population Issues Unmet needs for basic reproductive and child health services, supplies and infrastructure Dropouts at primary and secondary school levels High Infant Mortality Rate High Maternal Mortality Ratio Continue….. Immunization of children against all vaccine preventable diseases Early marriage for the girls Home deliveries or deliveries by untrained persons Lack of Information / counselling and services for fertility regulation and contraception with a wide basket of choices Continue….. Non Registration of births, deaths, marriages and pregnancies Spread of Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS) Communicable Diseases Adoption of Small Family Norm Continue….. The enormous demographic differentials in terms of fertility, mortality and population growth rates amongst and within the States of the country Generating employment for the rapidly increasing but largely illiterate labour force and women who wish to enter the labour force as a result of fertility decline Continue….. High rates of unplanned urbanization and Non productivity / Marginal Productivity in agriculture Declining proportion of females in the population, particularly in some states, as a result of the incidence of female foeticide Emerging Issues Population Ageing Health for Urban Poor Accidents, Injuries Non communicable and Life style Diseases Gender Based Violence Sex selective abortions Thank you…!!!! Life Table Techniques Definition Life table combines mortality experience of a population at different ages in a single statistical model. It describes the life history of a hypothetical group, or cohort of people, as it is depleted gradually by death The concept of the life table was developed to describe essentially the mortality conditions but later on it has found applications in several other areas, e.g., fertility, nuptiality, migration, population projections family planning evaluation, working life tables, schooling etc. Life table in the context of mortality is a population model and hence can be used to answer many questions such as what proportion of the born children will live to celebrate their 20th birth day and how many of them will be able to cross 50 years of age and so on, if the cohort experiences the age specific death rates of the life table population Life table shows both numbers of persons of a birth cohort dying between certain ages as well as the number of persons surviving Period life table It was historically first developed to analyse mortality conditions of the population This life table is based on the mortality experience of population over a short period of time, such as, a year, three years, or one intercensal period It incorporates the experience of mortality by different ages of the population during a given period of time It assumes a hypothetical cohort of births subjected to the age specific death rates observed during a given period of time Since it gives a vivid picture of the current mortality of the population, it is rightly called current life table Cohort life table It describes the actual survival experience of a group or cohort of individuals who were born at about the same time This is also called a generation or longitudinal life table because the life history of a real cohort is followed till the last person dies It requires the data over a long period of time to complete a life table of one cohort. It is, therefore, not possible to construct life table for all the cohorts of population actually existing since they will be dying only in future The generation life tables are, however, very useful to project mortality. Because of the data problems, they are the least used of all the life tables unless otherwise specified; life table will mean hence- forth the current (period) life table. According to the length of the age interval in which life table functions are presented, tables are classified as complete and abridged life tables If the life table values are presented for every single year of the age from birth to the latest possible age, the life table is called a complete life table. In case of an abridged life table, the functions are presented by intervals of 5 or 10 years of age Generally abridged life table is prepared because it is less cumbersome to prepare and often more convenient to use Assumptions The cohort under study is closed to migration. Its size can change only due to death of its members Each member of the cohort is exposed to the risk of death at each age according to the schedule which is fixed in advance and is unchanged There is no variation in the risk of death over time and thus life table is a purely deterministic model The size of the cohort is always a fixed number of births of same sex, say, 1000, 10,000 or 100,000 which is called the radix of the life table in order to facilitate comparisons between different life tables The number of deaths during the year is assumed to be evenly spread over the age interval (except the first few years) especially when it is one year Life Table Functions and Columns The basic life table functions describing the history of a cohort of persons are presented in a tabular form. Except the first column of a life table denoting age, each of the other six columns of a life table specifies a life table function. The six basic life table functions calculated for each life table are nq x, l x, o ndx, nLx, Tx and e x. Of these, three functions namely lx, Tx and eox are defined for exact age x and the rest for the age interval x to x + n years. In general, the mortality rate ( nqx) is the basic input of the life table or the initial function from which all other functions can be derived. For a cohort life table, information is available only on survivors (lx) and hence it forms the basic input. Column 2: nqx : The probability of dying before reaching age x + n for a person who is of exact age x. In case of a complete life table, we use qx instead of nqx. Then qx implies the probability that a person who has reached age x would die during the interval (x, x + 1). Some times one can calculate another life table function px as complement of qx. Thus px = 1 – qx npx = 1 - nqx npx gives the probability of surviving of a person aged x during the interval x to , x + n. Column 1: x to x + n: The period of life between two exact ages x and x + n. In case of abridged life table n is taken as 5 or 10, years. Age 'x' means exact age x in this column. In case of complete life table the column is designated by only age x where x = 0,l,...,w Column 3: lx: The number of persons living at exact age x (at the beginning of the interval (x to x + n) out of the total number of births given by the radix of the life table. This column starts with l0, the size of the birth cohort, i.e., the radix. lx is a decreasing function of age. We can obtain this value from the value of qx as follows: lx+n = lx * npx (by definition) Thus npx = lx+n / lx Column 4: ndx: number of deaths out of lx persons during the period of next n years. Thus ndx = lx * (nqx) Hence lx+n = lx – ndx = lx * (1 - nqx) = lx * (npx) In case of a complete life table n = 1 and hence dx = lx * (qx) and lx+1 = lx * px Column 5: nLx: The number of person years lived by the lx persons during the interval (x, x + n): In case the interval is of one year, this function is only denoted by Lx. This column gives the population of the life table by age. Thus nLx gives the number of persons in the age interval (x., x + n) in the life table population. Since the deaths at any age interval x (except first few years of life) are evenly distributed, the function l x is linearly distributed over these ages and hence Lx = ½ * (lx + lx+1) and nLx = n/2 * [lx + lx+n] for x>= 2 Since linear relationship is not valid for ages 0 and 1, the approximate values of L0 and L1 are given as: L0 = 0.3 l0 + 0.7 l1 L1 = 0.4l1 + 0.6l2 The above relations are obtained on the assumption that, on average, a person is dying in the first year of the life lives for 0.3 year and one dying between the ages 1 and 2 lives, on average, for 0.4 years. We cannot get the value for the last digit L100+ as it is an open class. L100+ = l100+/ nm100+ Column 6: Tx : Total life time after age x. This is total number of person years lived by the survivors. lx in the future. This is given by the cumulative sum of nLx values after age x i.e., Tx = nLx + nLx+n + Ly Where Ly is the person years lived by the survivors at age y i.e., ly persons after the age y (for example y = 80). It is obtained as Ty = Ly = ly / my From the definition, it also implies that Tx = Lx + Tx+1 Column 7: e0x: The expectation of life at exact age x. This is the average number of years to which the survivors l x are expected to live. This is given by e0x = Tx / lx If x = 0, then e00 = T0 / l0 e00 is of special importance and is commonly known as expectation of life at birth. This is a widely used measure of the level of mortality in a country. The interpretation of the functions in a complete life table is the same as in the abridged life table. The qx, d x and Lx are the values which relate to single age interval- We do not write them as 1qx, 1dx and 1Lx in general. Life Table Techniques By Dr. Gyan Kashyap, PhD What is Life Table? A life table is a mathematical tool that portrays the mortality conditions at a particular period of time among the population According to Barclay, the life table is a life history of a hypothetical group, or cohort of people, as it is diminished gradually by deaths A statistical model for measuring the mortality (or any other type of “exit”) experiences of a population, controlling for age distributions Types of Life Tables Current/Period vs. Generation/Cohort Complete vs. Abridged Single vs. Multiple Decrement Current/Period vs. Generation/Cohort The current life table is based upon the mortality experience of a community for a short period of time such as one year  The current life table does not depict the mortality experience of an actual cohort A current life table, therefore, may be viewed as a "snapshot" of current mortality. It is an excellent summary description of mortality in a year or a short period The cohort or generation life table is based on the mortality experience of a birth cohort, i.e. person born during one particular year This life table would observe the mortality experience of that particular birth cohort from its beginning till the death of all the cohort members Complete vs. Abridged There are two usual ways of presenting a life table namely, complete and abridged life tables, according to the length of the age interval in which the basic data are presented In a complete life table information is given for every single year of age from birth until the last applicable age In abridged life tables information is given only for broader age intervals such as x to x+5 years The single abridged life table is usually prepared rather than the more elaborate complete life table since the abridged is less laborious to prepare and sufficiently reliable for most purposes and often more convenient to use Single vs. Multiple Decrement The life table that describes the attrition caused by a given single factor, e.g. mortality, is called a single decrement life table On the other hand, the life table that considers attrition to the size of a group from two or more causes is called a multiple decrement life table The following are some of the examples (i) A group of bachelors may be diminished by death and marriage (ii) A group of employees may be diminished by death, retirement and resignation Basic assumptions for preparing a life table: few simplifying assumptions: The cohort is `closed' for migration in or out. Hence, the changes in membership are due to death only People die at each age according to a schedule that is fixed in advance and does not change The cohort originates from some standard number of births (such as 1,000, 10,000 or 100,000) called the `radix' of the life table At each age (excepting the first few years of life), deaths are evenly distributed between one birthday and the next The cohort normally contains members of only one sex. However, a life table can be constructed for both sexes combined The ASDRs in the life table population is the same as the ASDRs in the actual population during a specified period Columns of Life Tables X – Age n- Size of cohort nKx - Number of person nDx - Number of deaths nqx – Probability of dying nlx - Number of survivors to age x ndx – Number of deaths at age x nLx - Number of year lived between lx-n and lx nTx - Total years lived between 0 to x nex - Average number of additional years expected at x and beyond Abridged life table construction Step 1: Solving for age-specific death rates n m x ≈ n Mx = n D x / n N x Step 2: Solve for nqx (probability of dying in age interval) nqx =(2n*nmx)/(2+n*nmx) Step 3: Set radix (l0) and solve for number alive at age x (lx) lx+n = lx * npx lx+n=lx*(1-nqx) Cont… Step 4: Solve for deaths experienced in each age interval (ndx) ndx = lx – lx+n Step 5: Solve for person years lived between x and x+n (nLx) nLx=(n/2)*(lx+lx+n) Step 6: Solve for person years lived above age x (nTx) Tx=Tx+n-Lx Step 7: Solve for life expectancy at age x (e0x) e0x = Tx / lx ABRIDGED LIFE TABLE FROM AGE SPECIFIC DEATH RATE BY SEX OF BIHAR IN 2006 (MALE) Survival at the Number of person years Total number Average number Age Probability of dying beginning of Number of deaths lived between age x and of years lived of year lived group ASDR ASDR per 1000 between age x to x+n the age interval between age x and x+n x+n beyond age x after exact age x x, x+n nmx nmx nqx lx ndx nLx Tx e00 nqx=(2n* nmx)/ Tx=Tx+n- (2+n*nmx) lx+n=lx*(1-nqx) ndx=(lx-lx+n) nLx=(n/2)*(lx+lx+n) Lx e 00 0-1 47.4 0.0474 0.04587778 100000 4588 96789 6569823 65.70 1-4 5.2 0.0052 0.02058591 95412 1964 377524 6473034 67.84 5-9 1.5 0.0015 0.00747198 93448 698 465495 6095510 65.23 10-14 1.2 0.0012 0.00598205 92750 555 462362 5630015 60.70 15-19 2.3 0.0023 0.01143425 92195 1054 458340 5167653 56.05 20-24 1.7 0.0017 0.00846403 91141 771 453776 4709314 51.67 25-29 3 0.003 0.01488834 90369 1345 448483 4255538 47.09 30-34 3.3 0.0033 0.01636499 89024 1457 441478 3807055 42.76 35-39 2.3 0.0023 0.01143425 87567 1001 435332 3365577 38.43 40-44 4.6 0.0046 0.02273851 86566 1968 427908 2930245 33.85 45-49 6.5 0.0065 0.03198032 84597 2705 416224 2502337 29.58 50-54 7.4 0.0074 0.03632793 81892 2975 402022 2086113 25.47 55-59 11.2 0.0112 0.05447471 78917 4299 383838 1684091 21.34 60-64 21.4 0.0214 0.10156621 74618 7579 354143 1300253 17.43 65-69 36.2 0.0362 0.16597891 67039 11127 307379 946110 14.11 70-74 52.1 0.0521 0.23047998 55912 12887 247345 638731 11.42 75-79 78.9 0.0789 0.32950512 43026 14177 179685 391386 9.10 80-84 109 0.109 0.42829077 28848 12356 113353 211701 7.34 85+ 167.7 0.1677 1.00000000 16493 16493 98348 98348 5.96 Other Uses for Life Tables Nuptiality (first marriage) Migration from place of birth Entering the labor force Becoming a mother Subsequent childbearing Marital survival Unemployment spells Incarceration Thank you Contraceptives Outline Objective Introduction Contraceptive methods – Spacing Methods – Permanent Methods Take home message 20-11-2020 Contraceptives 2 Objective To learn and understand various contraceptive methods, their usage, side effects and effectiveness 20-11-2020 Contraceptives 3 Introduction Contraception refers to methods used to prevent pregnancy Planning, provision and use of birth control is family planning Choice of contraceptive method depend upon the NEED of the users None of the methods is completely effective Failure rates for most reversible methods are strongly influenced by compliance 20-11-2020 Contraceptives 4 Types of Contraceptive Methods Contraceptive Methods Temporary Methods Permanent Methods Barrier/Mec Methods Male and Non Hormonal Hormonal Pill hanical based on Female Methods information sterilization 20-11-2020 Contraceptives 5 Temporary/Spacing Methods 20-11-2020 Contraceptives 6 Hormonal Methods  Oral Contraceptives Pills (OCPs)  Injections (Depo-Provera)  Implants (Norplant I& II)  Vaginal Ring  Skin Patch Oral Contraceptive Pills (OCPs) 20-11-2020 Contraceptives 8 Combined Pill: Mala D Most commonly used method Available in Government supply Contains two hormones: Estrogen and Progesterone which prevent an egg from being released from a woman's ovary each month Effectiveness: 99% if taken correctly How does the pill work? Stops ovulation Thins uterine lining Thickens cervical mucus Oral Contraceptive Pills  Pills are safe and effective when taken properly to prevent pregnancy  A full medical history is essential before prescribing  Women must have a pap smear to get a prescription for birth control pills Not suitable for women with:  high blood pressure  circulatory disease  diabetes  women over 35years  who smoke  who are overweight 20-11-2020 Contraceptives 12 Taking the Pill Start from the fifth day of mensis Once a day at the same time everyday Use condoms for first month Use condoms when on antibiotics Use condoms for 1 week if you miss a pill or take one late The pill offers no protection from STD’s The combined pill is not reliable if taken over 12 hours late or if have vomiting and diarrhea, when extra protection is required Some drugs like antibiotics can also affect its reliability Progesterone-only pill (mini pill) Unlike the combined pill, this only contains the hormone Progesterone. This type of pill is good for women who are breast- feeding, older women, smokers and others who cannot use the combined pill. Effectiveness: 98% if taken correctly. Benefits of OCPs Prevents pregnancy Eases menstural cramps Shortens period Regulates period Decreases incidence of ovarian cysts Prevents ovarian and uterine cancer Decreases acne The pill does not interfere with the spontaneity of sex reduce pre-menstrual syndrome (PMS) and period pain Side-effects Breast tenderness Nausea Increase in headaches Moodiness Weight change Spotting Injection: Depo-Provera Birth control shot given once every three months to prevent pregnancy 99.7% effective preventing pregnancy No daily pills to remember How does the shot work? Stops ovulation Stops menstrual cycles Thickens cervical mucus Side effects Extremely irregular menstrual bleeding and spotting for 3-6 months! NO PERIOD  after 3-6 months Weight change Breast tenderness Mood change *NOT EVERY WOMAN HAS SIDE-EFFECTS! Implants Implants are placed in the body filled with hormone that prevents pregnancy Physically inserted in simple 15 minute outpatient procedure Plastic capsules the size of paper matchsticks inserted under the skin in the arm 99.9% effectiveness rate Norplant I vs Norplant II Six capsules Two capsules Five years Three years Norplant Implant Norplant Considerations Should be considered long term birth control Requires no upkeep  Extremely effective in pregnancy prevention > 99% Emergency Contraception Emergency contraception pills can reduce the chance of a pregnancy by 75% if taken within 72 hours of unprotected sex! Emergency Contraceptive Pill (ECP) Must be taken within 72 hours of the act of unprotected intercourse or failure of contraception method Must receive ECP from a physician 75 – 84% effective in reducing pregnancy ECP  Floods the ovaries with high amount of hormone and prevents ovulation  Alters the environment of the uterus, making it disruptive to the egg and sperm  Two sets of pills taken exactly 12 hours apart Vaginal Ring (Nuva Ring) 95-99% Effective A new ring is inserted into the vagina each month Does not require a "fitting" by a health care provider, does not require spermicide, can make periods more regular and less painful, no pill to take daily, ability to become pregnant returns quickly when use is stopped. Nuva Ring is a flexible plastic (ethylene-vinyl acetate copolymer) ring that releases a low dose of a progestin and an estrogen over 3 weeks. Skin Patch Transdermal Patch Ortho Evra  Patch is placed on buttock, abdomen, outer upper arm, or upper torso  Replaced weekly for 3 weeks, then a patch- free week  Costly ($420 per year)  Pros: no daily pill; spontaneity  Cons: no STD protection, skin irritation 20-11-2020 Contraceptives 29 Non Hormonal Pill 20-11-2020 Contraceptives 30 Centchroman Ormeloxifene Non steroidal, non hormonal Acts by causing asynchrony in the menstural cycles between ovulation and uterine lining Twice a week for first three month Weekly schedule: 30 mg Failure rate of 1-2% Can cause delayed menstruation 20-11-2020 Contraceptives 31 Barrier Methods Spermicides Male Condom Female Condom Diaphragm Cervical Cap Barrier Method Prevents pregnancy blocks the egg and sperm from meeting Barrier methods have higher failure rates than hormonal methods due to design and human error Spermicides Chemicals kill sperm in the vagina Different forms: -Jelly-Film -Foam-Suppository Some work instantly, others require pre-insertion Only 76% effective (used alone), should be used in combination with another method i.e., condoms Male Condom Most commonly used method Effective barrier method when used properly Available in government supply Latex and Polyurethane Condoms available Prevent pregnancy and spread of STD’s (including HIV) Male Condom Effectiveness rate = 88% Combining condoms with spermicides raises effectiveness levels to 99% Female Condom Made as an alternative to male condoms Polyurethane Physically inserted in the vagina Effectiveness rate = 79% Woman can use female condom if partner refuses The Female Condom The female condom is a lubricated polyurethane sheath, similar in appearance to a male condom. It is inserted into the vagina. The closed end covers the cervix. Like the male condom, it is intended for one-time use and then discarded. Diaphragm Typical Effectiveness Rate = 80% The diaphragm is a flexible rubber cup that is filled with spermicide Self-inserted over the cervix prior to intercourse. Inserted up to 18 hours before intercourse and can be left in for a total of 24 hours It is a prescribed device fitted by a health care professional and is more expensive than other barrier methods, such as condoms Diaphragm Cervical Cap Latex barrier inserted in vagina before intercourse “Caps” around cervix with suction Fill with spermicidal jelly prior to use Can be left in body for up to a total of 48 hours Must be left in place six hours after sexual intercourse Typical effectiveness rate = 80% Cervical Cap The cervical cap is a flexible rubber cup-like device that is filled with spermicide and self-inserted over the cervix prior to intercourse. The device is left in place several hours after intercourse. The cap is a prescribed device fitted by a health care professional and can be more expensive than other barrier methods, such as condoms. Sponge The sponge is inserted by the woman into the vagina and covers the cervix blocking sperm from entering the cervix. The sponge also contains a spermicide that kills sperm. It is available without a prescription Intrauterine Devices (IUD/CuT) Available in government supply T-shaped object placed in the uterus to prevent pregnancy Must be on period during insertion A natural childbirth required to use IUD Extremely effective without using hormones > 97 % Must be in monogamous relationship The intrauterine device (IUD) shown uses copper as the active contraceptive, others use progesterone (Merina) in a plastic device. IUDs are very effective at preventing pregnancy (less than 2% chance per year for the progesterone IUD, less than 1% chance per year for the copper IUD). IUDs come with increased risk of ectopic pregnancy and perforation of the uterus and do not protect against sexually transmitted disease. IUDs are prescribed and placed by health care providers. 20-11-2020 Contraceptives 45 Copper T vs.. Progestasert 10 years 1 year 99.2 % effective 98% effective Copper on IUD acts as T shaped plastic that spermicide, IUD blocks egg releases hormones over a one year time frame from implanting Thickens mucus, blocking Must check string before egg sex and after shedding of Check string before sex & uterine lining. after shedding of uterine lining. Methods based on information Withdrawal Method Natural Family Planning Fertility Awareness Method Abstinence Withdrawal (Coitus Interrupts) Removal of penis from the vagina before ejaculation occurs NOT a sufficient method of birth control by itself Effectiveness rate is 80% (very unpredictable in teens, wide variation) 1 of 5 women practicing withdrawal become pregnant Very difficult for a male to ‘control’ Natural Family Planning Methods  Calendar (Rhythm) method  Basal body temperature  Cervical mucous method  Ovulation awareness method  Lactational amenorrhea method Basal Body Temperature Method BBT=body temp in resting state on waking Slight drop immediately before ovulation After ovulation, release of progesterone causes slight increase in temperature Standard Days Method (w/Cyclebeads) If you have not started 1 On the day you start your your period by the day your period, move the after you put the ring on ring to the RED bead. the last brown bread, contact your provider. Also, mark this date on your calendar 2 Every morning If you start your period move the ring before you put to the next the ring on the bead. darker brown Always move bead, contact the ring from your provider. On WHITE bead days the narrow to (may not be a good you can get pregnant. the wide end. method for you) Avoid unprotected intercourse to prevent On BROWN bead a pregnancy. days you can have intercourse with very low When you start your probability of next period, move the pregnancy. ring directly to red bead and begin again. Arevalo M et al., Contraception, 2002;65:333-338. Cervical Mucus Method no unprotected intercourse Early Transitional Highly Fertile Mucus Mucus Mucus Slight amount Increasing Profuse Thick amounts Thin White Thinner Transparent Sticky Cloudy Stretchy Holds its shape Slightly stretchy Stanford JB, et al. Obstet Gynecol. 2003;101:1285-1293. Fertility Awareness Methods pros & cons Pros – Essentially free – No medical side effects – Does not interrupt sexual activity – Woman gains awareness about her body and natural cycles, which can increase comfort w/sexuality – Acceptable to certain religions: Muslims, Catholic Church Cons – No STI protection – Requires some degree of discipline in order to keep track of calendar/charts, etc. – Need to abstain from intercourse or use a backup method during fertile days Permanent Contraceptive Methods 20-11-2020 Contraceptives 55 Sterilization Procedure performed on a man or a woman permanently sterilizes Female = Tubal Ligation Male = Vasectomy Tubal Ligation Surgical procedure performed on a woman Fallopian tubes are cut, tied, cauterized, prevents eggs from reaching sperm Failure rates vary by procedure, from 0.8%-3.7% May experience heavier periods Surgical sterilization which permanently prevents the transport of the egg to the uterus by means of sealing the fallopian tubes is called tubal ligation, commonly called "having one's tubes tied." This operation can be performed laparoscopically or in conjunction with a Cesarean section, after the baby is delivered. Tubal ligation is considered permanent, but surgical reversal can be performed in some cases Laparoscopy ‘band-aid’ Sterilization Vasectomy Male sterilization procedure Ligation of Vas Deferens tube No-scalpel technique available Faster and easier recovery than a tubal ligation Failure rate = 0.1%, more effective than female sterilization During a vasectomy (“cutting the vas”) a urologist cuts and ligates (ties off) the ductus deferens. Sperm are still produced but cannot exit the body. Sperm eventually deteriorate and are phagocytized. A man is sterile, but because testosterone is still produced he retains his sex drive and secondary sex characteristics. Take Home Message Contraceptive methods are temporary and permanent Temporary include hormonal, non hormonal pills, barrier and mechanical methods (IUDs) and information based methods Permanent methods are male and female sterilization Most effective temporary methods are hormonal and IUDs; and permanent sterilization 20-11-2020 Contraceptives 61 Thank you…..!!!!!! Migration Definition and Concepts Definition The UN multilingual dictionary defines "migration" as a form of spatial mobility between one geographical unit and another, involving a permanent change of residence. Thus, migration involves the following aspects: (a) Permanent change of residence for one or more years; and (b) Crossing of a pre-defined administrative boundary. Advantage of such definition is that much useful information is usually available on the characteristics of places of origin and definition which permit a better analysis of factors associated with migration Continued... Disadvantages of such definition are that: (a) It excludes other types of short-term or cyclical or circulatory or temporary movements which are also equally important for study; and (b) There is also the risk of non-comparability over time due to change in administrative boundaries, as well as great difference in size and shape in such boundaries However, for convenience, this definition is utilised in most migration studies Migrant A migrant is a person who has changed his usual place of residence from one migration defining area to another at least once during the migration interval (usually, interval may be one year, five years, or ten years, or intercensal period Area of Origin For migration, the area or place from which a move is made is the area of origin. For migrants it may be - (a) An area of residence at the beginning of migration interval, or (b) An area of residence from which last move made for the current migration interval Area of Destination For migration, the area in which a move terminates is the area of destination. For migrants, the area of destination is the area of residence at the end of migration interval Migration Streams It is the total number of moves made during a given migration interval that have a common area of origin and of destination. In practice, however, it is a body of migrants having common area of origin and destination Lifetime Migration A person whose area of residence at census / survey date differs from the area of birth is a lifetime migrant The number of such persons in a population is referred to as lifetime migration However, the definition grossly underestimates both migration and number of migrants; as it excludes all moves that occurred between departure from place of birth and arrival in the area of residence as reported on a census date, and it does not include migrant persons who moved out and subsequently returned to the place of birth Out Migration and In Migration Every move is an out-migration with respect to the area of origin and an in migration with respect to the area of destination In Migrant An in-migrant is a person who enters a migration- defining area by crossing its boundary from some point outside the area, but within the same country. He is to be distinguished from an "immigrant" who is an "international migrant" entering the area from a place outside the country Out Migrant An out-migrant is a person who reports from a migration-defining area by crossing its boundary to a point outside it, but within the same country He is to be distinguished from "emigrant" who is an "international migrant" departing to another country by crossing an international boundary Gross and Net Migration Data that refer to all moves or all migrants, within a specific definition of migration that is being applied, are concerned with "gross" migration. With respect to a given area, the sum of in-migration and out-migration, or of in- migrants and out migrants, is called "turnover" Net migration refers to the balance of movements in opposite directions. With reference to a given area, it is the difference between in-migration and out-migration. When in-migration exceeds out-migration, the net going to area is called "net in-migration", which takes a positive sign. In the opposite case, there has been "net out-migration", and which takes a negative sign Migration Streams A migration stream is the total number of moves made during a given migration interval that have common area of origin and a common area of destination (UN. 1970). If the migration stream from area i to area j is represented by the symbol Mij, the opposite stream is represented by Mji. The larger of the two is designated as stream or the dominant stream and the smaller as the counter-stream. Mij + Mji is called gross-inter change Primary Migrants and Secondary Migrants A person who moves from the place of his/her birth to another place and if it is his/her first move, he/she is called a primary migrant w.r.t. place of his/her destination: but if he/she moves from his/her place of birth or usual place of residence several times, he/she is called secondary migrant w.r.t. to place of destination Return Migration A person who moves back in the area where he formally resided is called return migrant Intra District Migrants When a person moves out from the place of usual residents or birth to another defined area which is within the district of enumeration, he/she is termed as intra district migrant Inter District Migrants A person who in the course of migration crosses the boundary of the district of enumeration but remains within the state of enumeration is termed as an inter district migrant Intra state and inter state migration can similarly be defined Types of Migration There are two major types of migration: internal migration that occurs within a country; and international migration that takes place across international boundary within internal migration, there could be a four-way classification of migration according to their direction of movements between rural and urban areas; for example, (i) Rural to rural migration (ii) Rural to urban migration (iii) Urban to rural migration (iv) Urban to urban migration Importance of Migration Types Of all these streams, it is primarily rural to urban migration which becomes the most important, as it contributes to the transfer of labour force from the traditional agricultural sector to the urbanised industrial sector, and is linked with the process of urbanization. Likewise, urban to urban migration is also related to the process of urbanization However, in many developing countries like India, rural to rural migration is also of great volume and significance, especially among the females, who move primarily for marriage or for familial reasons. Each of these migration streams has different premises, causes and consequences Migration Pattern in India The inter-state migration rate was considered low in India in comparison with the west Assam and Bengal in Eastern India, and Bombay, Mysore, Travancore-Cochin in Southern India were the migrant-receiving regions. In 1950's and onwards, the West and East zones of India registered the principal gains in population due to migration In 1961 census, 30 per cent of the population was enumerated in a place different from their place of birth Continued... Female marriage migration consists of a very large proportion of internal migration in India; and rural-to-rural migration for work, familial purposes, and other reasons, for both males and females, constitutes a more massive proportion than rural- urban migration Over 200 million people were enumerated in a place outside their place of birth (30% of total population of 685 million) in 1981 census During the recent decades, in India, women are also migrating for economic reasons; apart form their voluminous migration for marriage Push and Pull Factors The push factor involves a force which acts to drive people away from a place and the pull factor is what draws them to a new location Consequences of Internal Migration for Rural Areas Effect on rural incomes and its distribution i. A sizeable surplus generated in the industrial sector which provides the necessary physical and working capital for development ii. A declining labour-land ratio often provides a new environment conducive to changing rural production techniques iii. The transfer of labour into the more productive, urban activity eventually generates a growing demand for rural output, and thus alters the rural- urban terms of trade, raising agricultural prices relative to those of urban goods Continued... The increase in agricultural prices, in turn, is likely to stimulate agricultural production and raise rural incomes. Remittances from urban areas are also likely to raise rural incomes, and may not only increase the levels of consumption, but also encourage technological change that further raises rural incomes Effect on rural capital formation and technological change i. Out-migration from rural areas is likely to push up wage rates and encourage labor-saving technological change and/or greater work participation by the remaining family members ii. Technological change would also be stimulated to the extent that out-migrants repatriate savings to the rural areas in the form of remittances or capital equipment Effect on modes of rural production i. Rural out-migration is associated with a greater reliance on wage-labour. Out-migration of young adults changes the age composition of the rural family, lead to hire wage-labour, especially if the migrants send back remittances that can be used to pay wages ii. Migration may also lead to commercialisation of agricultural activity, which is further encouraged by favorable changes in commodity terms of trade and extension of markets Continued... Technological changes and capital investments resulting from migration via remittances contribute to increasing monetisation and mechanization of agriculture Effect on rural fertility i. Migration affects the level and distribution of income in rural areas, and income distribution is known to be an important determinant of fertility and aggregate population growth ii. migration of unmarried males of young, working age might result in severe imbalances in the sex ratio in rural areas and influence the proportion of persons able to find marriage partners Continued... Separation of husbands from wives during the crucial life-cycle phase, when couples are fertile and economically active may have the effect of lowering the completed family size Continued... iv.The decision to migrate or to start a family tends to occur at about the same age period. Since marriage, migration and labour force participation are conscious decisions of the individual, it is possible that a person may delay his/her marriage so that he/she can migrate and help out his family v. Migration through increased contacts with the more modernized sectors may influence the value system of the rural communities, and rural inhabitants may internalize lower fertility norms Consequences of Internal Migration for Urban Areas The economic effects of migration on the urban areas are more difficult to distinguish These are generally determined by comparing key economic factors such as levels of employment and income, occupational structure, savings and capital formation, structure and composition of industry, and government revenue and expenditure, before and after migration Effect on wages and unemployment i. there are several means by which migrants may directly or indirectly raise the level of employment, they may lower wage rates in urban areas, and this may lead to an expansion of employment ii. the increased supply of unskilled and semi-skilled labour may stimulate investment and bring about a higher rate of industrialization; Continued... i. Their consumption patterns may be oriented towards the "basic needs - goods and services produced - by relatively labor-intensive technologies; ii. They may sustain a higher rate of growth because of their relatively higher propensity to save, a lower rate of absenteeism, and greater work intensity Effect on labour force participation i. To the extent migrants are identifiable as such, they may be discriminated against in their search for work because of ethnic, religious, tribal, caste and similar considerations ii. Migrants are often considered to have a lower degree of commitment to work than natives and may, therefore, be less preferred by the employers Both these factors may result in discriminatory wage rates and a less favourable employment situation for migrants which may reduce their participation in the labour force If migrants have a relatively higher rate of economic activity, and if their negative influence on wages is not strong, then migration is more likely to increase the urban participation rates Moreover, migrants do not always compete for jobs with natives; sometimes, they take up jobs with the natives; sometimes, they take up jobs which the natives refuse, or create new jobs for themselves, particularly in the informal sector Effect on availability of urban amenities and economies of scale i. The influx of migrants into cities increase the demand for infrastructural facilities and social services such as schools and hospitals, transport and communications, water, drainage and electricity provision, and cultural and recreational facilities ii. Most of the cities are unable to meet the growing demand for these services, as they often require large overhead investments The influx of migrants is also likely to push up rents and land values However, if migrant workers are concentrated in construction and low-level jobs in the services sector, their presence may lower the costs of providing housing and other amenities Effect on urban income distribution i. If the majority of migrants enter low-income jobs, the direct and immediate impact of their arrival in the urban area will be the worsening of the urban income distribution ii. Migration is also likely to have some effect on urban wages. To the extent increased supply of migrant labour depresses wage levels, particularly of workers with little or no skills, it would render the distribution of urban income still more unequal Effect on urban development i. The net economic impact of migration on the urban areas largely depe

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