Climate Change Pt. 1 PDF

# What shapes the distribution of organisms on the planet? - **Poll Question:** What limits an organism's distribution? - Dispersal ability - Behavior - Biotic factors (interactions with other species) - Abiotic factors (interactions with the non-living environment) - All of the...

# What shapes the distribution of organisms on the planet? - **Poll Question:** What limits an organism's distribution? - Dispersal ability - Behavior - Biotic factors (interactions with other species) - Abiotic factors (interactions with the non-living environment) - All of the above # Elephant Phylogeny - There are three living species of elephant: - African bush elephant - African forest elephant - Asian elephant - There are many extinct species. The oldest elephant fossils age around 55 million years. ### Elephant Dispersal and Distribution #### 1. Dispersal ability limits distribution - African bush elephant distribution - African bush elephants are common in Sub-Saharan Africa, but are absent from large parts of the continent due to deforestation, climate change, and hunting. #### 2. Behavior limits distribution - Cattle Egrets and Dispersal - Cattle egrets follow cattle, waiting for them to disturb insects, and have gradually expanded their range moving north. - Elephants in Maputo Elephant Reserve, Mozambique - Elephants in Maputo have expanded their range from the original elephant reserve. #### 3. Biotic Factors, or interactions with other species, limit distribution - Lion Predation on elephants in Savuti, Botswana - Savuti is a region in Botswana where lions hunt elephants. Lions frequently kill young elephants, and they may also kill adult elephants in large groups. Due to this predation, elephants avoid Savuti and are restricted to a smaller range. #### 4. Abiotic factors can limit distributions - Satellite tracking study in Kruger National Park, South Africa - Elephants are limited to the part of the park that has the best food supply and the most water. They are also limited by the presence of humans in the park. # Why do peanuts require different fertilizer? - Standard Vegetable Fertilizer 10N-10P-10K - Peanut Fertilizer 5N-10P-10K # Nitrogen fixers benefit other plants - Biological Nitrogen Fixation - Decomposition # Legumes and nodules on roots - Peanuts - Beans - Mesquite - Nodules containing rhizobia bacteria # What are the possible consequences of the frog leg trade? - Skinned frogs - French-fried frog legs # Global trade in frog legs - Exports 1996-2006 - Imports 1996-2006 # Frog extinction and chytrid fungus (*Batrachochytridium dendrobatidis*) # What is causing the loss of biodiversity? - Pollution (Dr. Williams’ lectures) - Invasive species (Dr. Williams’ lectures) - Climate change (these lectures) - Overharvest (Dr. Nelson's upcoming lectures) - Habitat Destruction/Alteration (Dr. Nelson's and Dr. Thomas' upcoming lectures) # Today's lecture: Climate Change Part 1 ### Learning Outcomes - Understand and provide examples of the factors shaping species distributions. - Describe how the climate is currently and has previously changed. - Understand the underlying causes of climate change. - Explain the ecological impacts of climate change. # Climate change biology - "I'll destroy Greation....Creative will destroy you." - "I'll destroy Greation....Creative will destroy you." # Do you believe in climate change? # Do you believe that human activities are causing climate change? # Determinants of Earth's Climate - Too close to the sun is too hot, too far is too cold. - Earth lies in the “goldilocks zone” that is just right. # The Greenhouse Effect - Sunlight - Reflection - Heat absorbed - Greenhouse gases - Carbon dioxide and other gases - Average temp 14C - Earth - Without greenhouse gases, average temp on Earth would be -18C - The greenhouse effect # Greenhouse Gases - The term “greenhouse gas” refers to the most common molecules in the atmosphere that can absorb infrared radiation (i.e., heat). - Carbon dioxide (CO2): Most common greenhouse gas. Released by burning fossil fuels. - Methane (CH4): Released as a byproduct of agricultural activities, fossil fuel processing, and waste disposal and treatment. - Nitrous Oxide (N2O): Released as a byproduct of agricultural activities. # Annual Greenhouse Gas Emissions - Most greenhouse gases are released by power plants # Carbon Dioxide Variations - The Industrial Revolution caused a dramatic rise of CO2. # Change in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide - Keeling Curve # Change in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide - Tipping point # Average temperature anomaly, Global - Average temperature has increased by 0.7C since the 1980s # Sea level has increased by 10 inches # Northern Hemisphere snow cover - Snow loss has been occurring unabated since the 1950s. # Alaskan Glaciers - Pedersen Glacier 1928, 1941, 2004, 2005 - Muir and Rigga Glaciers 2004, 2005 # Analyses of climate impacts on species - More than 80% of species examined exhibit changes that would be predicted due to climate change. - Authors also identified types of changes that would be predicted due to warming. - Human-modified temperatures induce species changes: joint attribution - **A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems.** # Ecological effects of warming - Density Changes - Range Shifts - Phenology - Morphology and Behavior - Genetic Frequencies # Ecological effects of warming - Density Changes - Range Shifts - Phenology - Morphology and Behavior - Genetic Frequencies # Penguin density over time - Emperor penguin density has declined by 50% in some parts of Antarctica. - Breeding pairs from 1955, 1965, 1975, 1985, 1995 # Antarctic food web - Krill, algae, seabirds, seals, whales, etc. # Krill - Algae (phytoplankton) in krill digestive organ # Emperor penguins are dependent on krill - Krill abundance has decreased 80% in the Southwest Antarctic in 30 yrs. # Krill life cycle - Krill reproduce from December to March - Juvenile krill begin to grow during winter - Primary diet of juvenile krill is ice algae # Ice algae - Krill need sea ice when they are growing. - This is where they find algae to eat. # Annual variation in Antarctic sea ice - End of Summer - End of Winter # Antarctic temperature - 3C increase in temp. since 1981 - 1C increase in temp. since 1950s - Largest temperature increase on earth. # Krill and sea ice - 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012, 2016 # Changes in the Antarctic ecosystem - Temperature - Sea ice # Trophic levels - Higher order carnivores - Carnivores - Penguins - Krill - Herbivores - Producers - Ice algae # Antarctic food web - Krill, algae, seabirds, seals, whales, etc. # Ecological effects of warming - Density Changes - Range Shifts - Phenology - Morphology and Behavior - Genetic Frequencies # Next lecture: Climate Change Part 2 - Next class (Fri Oct 4) will be held over Zoom, not in-person. - Zoom link: Dr. Nelson’s virtual office (also listed on the first page of the syllabus) https://view.zoom.us/j/9331498258 # How would you respond to Rep. Stockman? # Sept 2014 Climate change hearing # How would you respond to Rep. Stockman? # Northern Hemisphere snow cover - Snow loss has been occurring unabated since the 1950s. # Today’s lecture: Climate change part 2 ### Learning Outcomes - Provide examples of biotic and abiotic factors that shape species distributions. - Describe how the climate is currently and has previously changed. - Understand the underlying causes of climate change. - Explain the ecological impacts of climate change. # Ecological effects of warming - Density Changes - Range Shifts - Phenology - Morphology and Behavior - Genetic Frequencies # Temperature varies with latitude - Temperature degrees from the tropics to the poles. # Temperature and precipitation vary with altitude - Airflow - Windward side of mountains - Mountain - Leeward side of mountains - As air is forced over mountains, it rises and cools. Cool air holds less moisture. # Temperature and precipitation wary with altitude - Variation in temperature with altitude in California - As air is forced over mountains, it rises and cools. Cool air holds less moisture. # Elevation and habitat - Elevation - Oyment - Polar Forest - Subalpine - Mountain - Low elevation woodland - Temperature - Rainfall # Altered habitat due to climate change - Whole communities of organisms are predicted to shift higher in elevation or be eliminated with climate change. # Camille Parmesan studies the affect of climate change on Edith’s checkerspot butterfly # Edith's Checkerspot - Adult - Eggs are laid on larval food plants (dwarf plantain and purple owl's clover). - Chrysalis - Larvae # Latitude and extinction - Each shaded area represents multiple populations. - The different colors represent the percentage of the population that went extinct from 1860-1996. - 70% extinctions - 35-55% extinctions - < 20% extinctions # Latitude and extinction - Butterflies at southern latitudes have gone extinct. - 15 74 36 10 16 # Altitude and extinction - Butterflies at low elevations have gone extinct - 42 20 23 37 29 # Summary of Study - Host plants at low elevations and southern latitudes no longer senesce for the larvae. - This is due to climate change induced changes in rainfall and temperature. - The host plants senesce before larval development is complete. - This leads to a shift (northward in latitude and to higher elevations) of suitable habitat for the butterfly. # Starving polar bears pounces on a seal # Polar Bear Population Predicted To Dwindle With Retreating Ice - By 2030, the world’s polar bear population will, by then, be reduced to a third of its current size — likely to just 7,000. - The world's polar bear population is predicted to decline 30% by 2050. - The U.S. Geological Survey, which has been tracking polar bears for years, says the population is predicted to shrink to 10,000 by 2020. - The number of polar bears in Alaska is currently estimated at around 30,000. # Surviving climate change: Receding ice threatens Canada’s polar bears ### What are the predicted effects of climate change on organisms? ### Which predicted effect is the decline in polar bears an example of? # Ecological effects of warming - Density Changes - Range Shifts - Phenology - Morphology and Behavior - Genetic Frequencies - Root et al 2003 **Nature** # Polar Bears Found Swimming Miles From Alaskan Coast - Scientists found at least nine polar bears swimming in open water - with one at least 60 miles from shore - raising concern among wildlife experts about their survival. - The bears were spotted off the coast of Alaska's Chukchi Sea. # Polar bear swimming 60 miles from shore # This viral photo of an emaciated polar bear in summer 2015 became a rallying cry for the issue. # This bear likely wasn't starving due to melting sea ice. # Mashable - Just this bear very well could have starved to death because of a lack of ice. # Common arguments against climate change - "But this is the coldest winter we've had since I can remember!" - Response: Weather fluctuates from day to day (and year to year), but climate change is based on long-term trends, which clearly show that temperatures are rising globally. # Common arguments against climate change - "But this is the coldest winter we’ve had since I can remember!" - Response: Weather fluctuates from day to day (and year to year), but climate change is based on long-term trends, which clearly show that temperatures are rising globally. # Common arguments against climate change - "Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get." - Mark Twain # Common arguments against climate change - “Climate change is a natural phenomenon that has happened throughout Earth’s history” - Response: Yes, the climate has changed over time. Warmer periods in the past were driven by spikes in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. However (greenhouse gas) levels have now surpassed anything known in history. # Common arguments against climate change - “Climate change is a natural phenomenon that has happened throughout Earth’s history” - Response: Yes, the climate has changed over time. Warmer periods in the past were driven by spikes in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. However (greenhouse gas) levels have now surpassed anything known in history. # Sept 2014 Climate Change Hearing - How would you respond to Rep. Stockman? # How would you respond to Rep. Stockman? # Northern Hemisphere snow cover - Snow loss has been occurring unabated since the 1950s. # Today’s lecture: Climate change part 2 ### Learning Outcomes - Provide examples of biotic and abiotic factors that shape species distributions. - Describe how the climate is currently and has previously changed. - Understand the underlying causes of climate change. - Explain the ecological impacts of climate change. # Ecological effects of warming - Density Changes - Range Shifts - Phenology - Morphology and Behavior - Genetic Frequencies - Root et al. 2003 **Nature** ## Temperature varies with latitude - Temperature decreases from the tropics to the poles. # Temperature and precipitation vary with altitude - Airflow - Windward side of mountains - Mountain - Leeward side of mountains - As air is forced over mountains, it rises and cools. Cool air holds less moisture. # Temperature and precipitation vary with altitude - Variation in temperature with altitude in California - National Park - Farmland - Yosemite National Park - As air is forced over mountains, it rises and cools. Cool air holds less moisture. # Elevation and habitat - Elevation - Oyment - Polar Forest - Subalpine - Mountain - Low elevation woodland - Temperature - Rainfall # Altered habitat due to climate change - Whole communities of organisms are predicted to shift higher in elevation or be eliminated with climate change.