Chapter 4 - Ending Extreme Poverty PDF

Chapter 4 Ending Extreme Poverty The Age of Sustainable Development Lecture in Movies  3 Designing Practical Interventions – the. The Reasons to Believe That. Case of the Millennium Villa...

Chapter 4 Ending Extreme Poverty The Age of Sustainable Development Lecture in Movies  3 Designing Practical Interventions – the. The Reasons to Believe That. Case of the Millennium Villages (MV) Extreme Poverty Can Be Ended Strategies to End Extreme. Poverty A Closer Look at Official Development Assistance (ODA) South Asia – the Continuing. Challenge of Food Supply  4 Extreme Poverty $ 1.25, 1.2 Billion Keynes Essay: Economic MDG Encouraged the People (2005) & $ 2.00, 2.4 Billion Possibilities for Our Grandchildren, Creation of Several People (2010) Tech. Progress Can Bring About the Special Progs to Fight End of Poverty Malaria Extreme Poverty Definition : China Has Achieved the Most Millennium Declaration, According to the Ability of Individuals Remarkable Poverty Reduction 160 Countries in the UN Meet Basic Materials Needs in History With Extreme to Adopt MDG (8 Goals) Poverty Falling From 84% in 1981 to 12% in 2010  Poverty Rates for the Developing World (1981-2008) Generally, poverty in the world is going down, but the wars, economic depression and diseases make poverty remains. Source: PovcalNet/World Bank.  Extreme Poverty Rates by Region The global extreme poverty rates are going down Source: PovcalNet/World Bank.  The Seventeen Millennium Development Goals https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8NSmt-LPZoU#action=share The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, adopted by all United Nations Member States in 2015, provides a shared blueprint for peace and prosperity for people and the planet, now and into the future. At its heart are the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which are an urgent call for action by all countries - developed and developing - in a global partnership. They recognize that ending poverty and other deprivations must go hand-in-hand with strategies that improve health and education, reduce inequality, and spur economic growth – all while tackling climate change and working to preserve our oceans and forests. The SDGs build on decades of work by countries and the UN, including the UN Department of Economic. and Social Affairs.  AIDS Treatment Recipients (2002-2010) and AIDS Deaths (2000-2010) The achievements of the global HIV response over the last 10 years have been extraordinary. The incidence of HIV infection declined by more than 25% between 2001 and 2009 in 33 countries, and the HIV prevalence among young pregnant women attending antenatal clinics has declined by 25% or more in 7 countries. At the end of 2010, more than 6.6 million people were receiving antiretroviral therapy in low- and middle-income countries, a 16-fold increase from the approximately 400 000 people recorded in December 2003. Forty-eight low- and middle-income countries now provide antiretroviral therapy to more than 50% of adults in need, including 10 countries with universal access, and about 50% of pregnant women received the most effective regimens to prevent the mother-to-child transmission of HIV in 2010. As a result of these efforts, the annual number of AIDS- related deaths worldwide has fallen from the peak of 2.2 million recorded in 2005 to an estimated 1.8 million in 2010. Source: Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). http://www.un.org/millenniumgoals/pdf/MDG%20Report%202012.pdf  Malaria Deaths by Age and Region (1980-2010) During the past decade, renewed global and national efforts to combat malaria have led to ambitious goals. We systematically collected all available data for malaria mortality for the period 1980-2010, correcting for misclassification bias. We developed a range of predictive models, including ensemble models, to estimate malaria mortality with uncertainty by age, sex, country, and year. We used out-of-sample predictive validity to select the final model. Global malaria deaths increased from 995,000 (95% uncertainty interval 711,000-1,412,000) in 1980 to a peak of 1,817,000 (1,430,000-2,366,000) in 2004, decreasing to 1,238,000 (929,000-1,685,000) in 2010. In Africa, malaria deaths increased from 493,000 (290,000-747,000) in 1980 to 1,613,000 (1,243,000-2,145,000) in 2004, decreasing by about 30% to 1,133,000 (848,000-1,591,000) in 2010. Outside of Africa, malaria deaths have steadily decreased from 502,000 (322,000-833,000) in 1980 to 104,000 (45,000-191,000) in 2010. We estimated more deaths in individuals aged 5 years or older than has been estimated in previous studies: 435,000 (307,000-658,000) deaths in Africa and 89,000 (33,000-177,000) deaths outside of Africa in 2010. Our findings show that the malaria mortality burden is larger than previously estimated, especially in adults. There has been a rapid decrease in malaria mortality in Africa because of the scaling up of control activities supported by international donors. Donor support, however, needs to be increased if malaria elimination and eradication and broader health and development goals are to be met. Source: Murray, Christopher J. L. et al. 2012. “Global Malaria Mortality Between 1980 and 2010: A Systematic Analysis.” The Lancet 379: 413–431.  The Main Regions Gov. Fertility Reduction: Below Poverty Line Women Education, Child (BPL), Tropical Sub- Survival & Family Saharan Africa Planning and Contraceptives (48.5%) & East Asia (20%) Ending Extreme Agriculture – Soil Nutrient Poverty in Sub- Depletion, Fertilizers, Water Saharan Africa- manag. & Irrigation, Agriculture, HDI & Electrification, IT and Private Infrastructure Investors  Gross National Income Per Capita (2011) GNI per capita based on purchasing power parity (PPP). PPP GNI is gross national income (GNI) converted to international dollars using purchasing power parity rates. An international dollar has the same purchasing power over GNI as a U.S. dollar has in the United States. GNI is the sum of value added by all resident producers plus any product taxes (less subsidies) not included in the valuation of output plus net receipts of primary income (compensation of employees and property income) from abroad. Data are in constant 2011 international dollars. Source: World Bank. 2014. “World Development Indicators.”  Global GDP (Gross World Product) 1960-2017 GDP of all countries of the world combined by year, from 1960 to the latest official figures published by the World Bank. GDP Real refers to GDP adjusted for inflation (base year: 2010), or "Constant GDP"; GDP Growth refers to Real GDP Growth Rate; Per Capita shows Real GDP divided by total population for the same year; GDP Nominal is GDP at current prices (not adjusted for inflation); Pop. Change refers to the percentage change in world population from the previous year. Sources include: World Bank, United Nations  Average Crop Yields Combining cropland distribution and changes in carbon stocks due to crop expansion into native ecosystems shows that carbon loss per ton of annual crop yield is nearly three times as high in the tropics compared to temperate regions. Map courtesy of Paul West, University of Wisconsin-Madison Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment and University of Wisconsin-Madison Center for Limnology.  World Fertilizer Use (1998) Global crop production has doubled since the Green Revolution on the average, but crop yield has stagnated or even declined in some regions. In the same time, food demand has highly increased due to population growth and higher living standards. The use of pesticides and mineral fertilizers has improved crop yields but also contaminated food and the environment, thus leading to a global food crisis. Here, we reviewed the historical trends of global pesticide and fertilizer application, cereal yields, and production. Our main findings are as follows: (1) fertilizer and pesticide consumption increased for 35–40 % of the countries; (2) cereal production in 38 % of countries and yields in 47 % of countries either stagnated or decreased from 1961 to 2010; (3) countries showing stagnated or decreased yields are countries with low gross domestic product per capita, mainly situated in Africa, South America, and West Asia. Our findings thus evidence a global imbalance in food production and the usage of fertilizers and pesticides. Source: AAAS Atlas of Population and Environment.  15 Women’s Microfinance in Bangladesh– India - 1.3 Billion People, 2.5% Grameen Bank (Mohd Yunus, Nobel World’s Land, 410 People/KM2 Peace Prize & BRAC (Sir Fazle Hasan Abed, Social Entrepreneur) Green Revolution in 1960s – Borlaug, Swaminathan and Subramaniam Population Growth – Childhood Stunting – Fertilizer River Pollution TFR Green Revolution – Green Revolution – Crop Yields Seasonal Spikes and by Adding Fertilizer, Irrigation Develop Crop Varieties and Transportation Facilitation  World Population Density (people/km2) & Growth Rate) Population in the world is currently (2020) growing at a rate of around 1.05% per year (down from 1.08% in 2019, 1.10% in 2018, and 1.12% in 2017). The current average population increase is estimated at 81 million people per year. Annual growth rate reached its peak in the late 1960s, when it was at around 2%. The rate of increase has nearly halved since then, and will continue to decline in the coming years. World population will therefore continue to grow in the 21st century, but at a much slower rate compared to the recent past. World population has doubled (100% increase) in 40 years from 1959 (3 billion) to 1999 (6 billion). It is now estimated that it will take another nearly 40 years to increase by another 50% to become 9 billion by 2037. The latest world population projections indicate that world population will reach 10 billion persons in the year 2057. Source: “ World meters, 2020”  Direction of net international migration (immigrants- emigrants) and natural increase (births-deaths), 2010-2020 Over the decade 2010-2020, nine countries experienced positive net migration (the number of immigrants exceeding the number of emigrants) that countered negative natural increase (the number of deaths exceeding the number of births). Such as Belarus, Estonia, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Japan, the Russian Federation, Serbia and Ukraine. In four of the nine countries (Belarus, Germany, Italy and the Russian Federation), the volume of net immigration was sufficient to offset the negative natural increase and maintain positive population growth over the decade. In the remaining five countries, positive net migration slowed the rate of population decrease, but the population estimated for 2020 is still smaller than in 2010. During 2010-2020, ten countries, all in Europe, experienced both negative natural increase and negative net migration. Consequently, all ten countries experienced a decrease in population size over the decade, ranging from minus 1 per cent in the Republic of Moldova to minus 13 per cent in Lithuania. Data source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2019). World Population Prospects 2019. Estimated and projected life expectancy at birth for both sexes by SDG region, 1950-2100, according to the medium-variant projection All regions shared in the rise of life expectancy over this period, but the greatest gains were in sub-Saharan Africa, where improvements in survival have added nearly 12 years to the average length of life since 1990, reaching 61.1 years in 2019. In Central and Southern Asia, the life expectancy at birth increased by more than 11 years between 1990 and 2019, when it reached 69.9 years. Improvements in survival are expected to continue in all regions such that in 2050 the average length of life is projected to have increased to 77.1 years globally. Of the eight SDG regions, life expectancy at birth is highest in Australia/New Zealand, at 83.2 years in 2019, and it is expected to increase further to 87.1 in 2050. With a projected gain of 7.4 years between 2019 and 2050, when it could reach 68.5 years, sub-Saharan Africa has the largest expected improvement to the life expectancy at birth among the eight SDG regions. Across all countries and regions, projected gains in life expectancy are contingent on continued progress in the prevention and treatment of diseases, as well as the absence of catastrophic events, such as war or major epidemics of fatal diseases. Data source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2019). World Population Prospects 2019. * excluding Australia and New Zealand  Wheat Production and Net Imports In the first place, in the regions that are not major producers themselves in relation to their consumption (roughly, sub-Saharan Africa, East Asia other than China, Latin America other than Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay), consumption growth will be accompanied by increases in net imports, as in the past. For example, in these regions a consumption increase of 23 million tonnes between 1997/99 and 2015 will be accompanied by an increase in net imports of 21 million tonnes. In the preceding period (1984/86-1997/99) the comparable figures were 12 million tonnes increase in consumption and 14 million tonnes increase in net imports. Therefore, there is nothing new here. In contrast, what is new is that developments in the rest of the developing countries may diverge from past experience. As noted, production increases and declines in net imports and occasional generation of net exports in some of the major wheat-consuming countries (China, India, some countries in the Near East/North Africa region) masked the growing dependence of consumption growth in the developing countries on imported wheat. This factor will be much less important in the future. Some of the countries that had this role will probably turn around to be net importers again (e.g. India, Saudi Arabia and the Syrian Arab Republic) or larger net importers (e.g. China, Pakistan and Bangladesh) in the future. Source: FAO  5.20. Global Prevalence of Stunting of Stunting The interaction between undernutrition and infection can create a potentially lethal cycle of worsening illness and deteriorating nutritional status. Poor nutrition in the first 1,000 days of a child’s life can also lead to stunted growth, which is associated with impaired cognitive ability and reduced school and work performance. Source: UNICEF  BRAC Women’s Microfinance Group BRAC Founder Sir Fazle Hasan Abed KCMG Bangladesh Rural & Advancement Committee (BRAC), microfinance is the heart of BRAC’s integrated approach to alleviating poverty and helping the women in poverty realize their potential. They gather weekly in villages, towns and city neighborhoods to make repayments on their loans and apply for new ones. The microfinance groups as a social platform to deliver scaled up services in health, education, business development and livelihood support, all critical components needed to ensure that people are given the opportunity to break the cycle of poverty. The small enterprise loans offer to entrepreneurs seeking to expand their businesses. The loans enable owners to create new employment opportunities and provide new services. Typically, loans are given for trading, agriculture, poultry and livestock, fruit production and other types of small enterprises. Source: BRAC Total fertility (live births per woman) in 1990, 2019 and 2050 according to the medium-variant projection Globally, the level of fertility is expected to fall from an average of 2.5 live births per woman in 2019 to 2.2 in 2050 and to 1.9 in 2100, according to the medium-variant projection. Data source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2019). World Population Prospects 2019.  1% of GDP for Assistance (ODA 0.7% & Private 0.3%) Poverty Trap Countries Might Too Power to Climb the Ladder P A H During MDG – The Most Effective Scale-Up of ODA was in Public Health Sector I C Investments in Agriculture, Health, ODA Criteria – Should Go to Poor Education, Infrastructure and Women’s Countries and Provided by An Empowerment Official Agencies Slide / 23  Official Development Assistance (2012) Official development assistance (ODA) is defined as government aid designed to promote the economic development and welfare of developing countries Source: Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. 2013. “Compare your country—Official Development Assistance 2013.” Paris: OECD. http://www.oecd.org/statistics/datalab/oda2012.htm. MVP – Malaria Control, AIDS UN Millennium Project Treatment, Smallholder (2002 – 2006) Farmers & Electrification MVP Used Development Various Assistance $60 per Disciplines. Person per Year (2006 – 2010) Millennium Villages Project Most Exciting (MVP) – 10 African Rural Villages Developments – Local as “ Hunger Hot-Spot” (20% Health System Undernourishment) Community Health Workers (CHWs) – 1 Million CHWs Campaign  Millennium Villages and Africa’s Agro-ecological zones “Hunger Hot-Spot Villages” to Achieve Long-Term Development The Millennium Villages Project (MVP) was a demonstration project of the Earth Institute at Columbia University, the United Nations Development Program, and Millennium Promise aimed at proving that its integrated approach to rural development can be used to achieve the Millennium Development Goals—eight globally endorsed targets that address the problems of poverty, health, gender equality, and disease—by 2015. From the Millennium Villages Project. http://www.unmillenniumproject.org/mv/mv_history.htm  Backpack Community Health Workers (CHW) Carry the Tools to Fight Malaria 1. Rapid Diagnostic Test 2. Necessary Medicines at Spot 3. Use of Mobile Phone to Call an Ambulance if Needed Credit: Yombo Tankoano. http://1millionhealthworkers.org/2013/06/25/backpack-plus-project/  Poverty Trap Models (Extension of Solow Model) A poverty trap is a mechanism that makes it very difficult for people to escape poverty. A poverty trap is created when an economic system requires a significant amount of capital in order to earn enough to escape poverty. Examples: the industrialization trap, the savings trap, and the demographic trap Industrialization Trap Through large investments in infrastructure, skills, and R&D, it might be possible to change the vicious dynamics. This is a simple and compelling rational for aid. In that model, aid would act as a one-time "big push," pushing the economy away from the vicious cycle. Savings Trap As a result, we obtain a vicious cycle where poverty causes low savings, which once again leads to deeper poverty Demographic Trap