Market Analysis PDF

ANÁLISE DO MERCADO Def_Modelo de Negócio Um modelo de negócio descreve a lógica de como uma organização cria, proporciona e obtém valor  market analysis the objective is to collect valuable data that will help entrepreneurs to know their customers, determine appropria...

ANÁLISE DO MERCADO Def_Modelo de Negócio Um modelo de negócio descreve a lógica de como uma organização cria, proporciona e obtém valor  market analysis the objective is to collect valuable data that will help entrepreneurs to know their customers, determine appropriate pricing, and figure out their competitors’ vulnerabilities  market analysis the results of this exercise will allow to fulfil some blocks on the right side of the BMC CANVAS and SA CANVAS  market analysis the analysis should be done at three levels A. Customer B. Market C. Competitors  market analysis customer the objective is to identify the group of target customers it used Customer Segmentation such as geographic segmentation demographic/socioeconomic segmentation: age, gender, income, occupation, education, household size, and stage in the family life cycle psychological profiles: lifestyles, buying habits, expected benefits, usual forms to offer the needs of the customers’ requirements and legislation, etc. business type or size  market analysis customer but you also could identify similar products, by doing a database search it should be relatively easy to identify who the customers would be in those markets and who manufactures similar products for the market  identificar os clientes para quem estamos a criar valor? quem são os nossos clientes mais importantes?  identificar os clientes um novo negócio será bem sucedido, apenas se os produtos/serviços que fornece satisfazem uma necessidade do mercado as pessoas/organizações com essa necessidade são os seus clientes potenciais – o “mercado”  identificar os clientes listar as pessoas/organizações que possam ter essas necessidades definir essas pessoas/organizações de forma tão exata quanto possível  market analysis market the objective is to identify the market-based opportunities and threats, market growth and gaps and the potential returns  market analysis market 1.Estimating the Market Size § allows the quantification of the financial potential of the business § drives the business model hypotheses, once competing on a small market could be not attractive and on a large market could not be successful § two measures could be used § money § units: people and consummation (kilowatt hours; rooms nights, etc.)  market analysis market TAM Total Addressable Market (TAM) global revenue opportunity available for a product or service SAM Served Addressable Market (SAM) share of the total addressable market that your company targets/plans to target SOM Share of Market (SOM) percentage of the market a business holds or plans to capture  market analysis market TAM is calculated by multiplying the number of targetable opportunities by the average selling price of those opportunities Two Approaches Bottom-up analysis Top-down analysis Requires a granular look at the market to identify, group, Top-down analysis is a “process of elimination”. You start and count customers. Involves: by taking a large population of a known size that - Researching specific companies or customers that have encompasses the target market, and then use that as a demonstrated a demand for a similar product if it exists base point to narrow down to the specific market - Identifying the nature of each customer and estimating segment; with this number, you can isolate end users the amount being sold to each component group and multiply by revenue per user to estimate TAM  market analysis Bottom-up analysis market TAM ESTIMATION EXAMPLE 1. We conducted research/inquiry on the City Hospitals to identify the number of people with ASD and their segmentation. (1) (2) (3) City Children With ASD (0-18) Adults with ASD Total population Porto 423 1 953 237 591 Braga 437 1 378 181 494 Coimbra 263 1 171 143 396 2. We believe these cities’ data represents adequately the Portugal Market. We will calculate the target ASD density by taking an unweighted average of the densities of our target customers in each location. Then we use the total population of Portugal multiplied by the densities to calculate the number of end users. (1)/(3)=(4) (2)/(3)=(5) (4)+(5)=(6) (7) (6)*(7)=(8) City % Children with ASD % Adults with ASD % People with ASD Portugal Population TAM (People) Porto 0,18% 0,82% Braga 0,24% 0,76% 1,0000% 10 557 600 105 580 Coimbra 0,18% 0,82% 0,20% 0,80%  market analysis Bottom-up analysis market TAM ESTIMATION EXAMPLE 3. With an estimated cost on average per psychology consultation customer of 45€ per week, the TAM (money) is approximated at 105 580 *1*52*45= 247 056 185€ (9) (10) (11) (8)*(9)*(10)*(11)=(12 ) Average consults a week Number weeks a year Average price consults TAM (Money) 1 52 45 € 247 056 185 €  market analysis Top-down analysis market TAM ESTIMATION EXAMPLE 1. Research showed that on average 1% of the population has ASD. Of those, 21078 are children between the ages of 0-18 and 84520 are adults. Research also shows that on average they have at least 1 psychology consultation per week. (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (3+4)*(5)*(6)*(7)=(8) % People Nº Children with Nº Adults with Average consults Number weeks Average price Portugal population TAM (Money) with ASD ASD ASD a week a year consults 10 557 600 1% 21078 84502 1 52 45 € 247 057 200 € With an estimated cost per customer per psychology consultation of 45€ a week, the TAM is approximated 247 057 200€ Note Top-down analysis can lead to an overestimation due to the lack of specificity, but it’s more often easier to estimate than the Bottom-up approach.  market analysis market 2. Estimating the Market Growth § a simple way to estimate market growth is to extrapolate historical data § a more accurate approach is to study the market drivers such as demographic information; sales growth in similar sectors and technology § would be desirable to consider three scenarios: an optimistic, a realistic and a pessimist MARKET GROWTH ESTIMATION EXAMPLE “The prevalence rate of ASD has increased by 6-15% each year from 2000 to 2010”. Average Consults Number Weeks Average Price Expected Market Growth Next Year Nº Children With ASD Nº Adults With ASD TAM (Money) a week a year Consults Baseline 21 078 84 502 247 057 200 € Pessimistic Scenario (6%) 22 343 89 572 261 881 100 € 1 52 45 € Realistic Scenario (10%) 23 186 92 952 271 762 920 € Optimistic Scenario (15%) 24 240 97 177 284 115 780 €  market analysis market 3. Market Trends § Identifying the market trends that influence your customer segments helps you to capture opportunities in the market, assess risks and incentive innovation § Examples of market trends include customer relationships, pricing, changing customer needs and demographics, technology, communication, etc. 4. Key Successful Factors § Identifying the Key Successful Factors that influence your customer segments helps you achieve your business objectives § Examples of key success factors include flexibility, talent attraction, partnerships, brand management, etc.  meio envolvente dos modelos de negócio identifica os principais quais são os segmentos do segmentos de mercado, clientes mais ANÁLISE DO descreve as importantes? MERCADO segmentos respetivas onde está o atratividades e maior potencial do procura descobrir de crescimento? mercado novos segmentos  análise do mercado a fim de melhor satisfazer os clientes, uma empresa pode agrupá-los em segmentos distintos de acordo com necessidades comuns, comportamentos comuns ou outros atributos  análise do mercado um modelo de negócio pode definir um ou vários segmentos de clientes, grandes ou pequenos  análise do mercado uma organização deve tomar uma decisão consciente sobre que segmentos vai servir e que segmentos vai ignorar  análise do mercado uma vez tomada esta decisão, um modelo de negócio pode ser cuidadosamente concebido em torno de uma significativa compreensão das necessidades específicas do cliente  análise do mercado Idealab 23ª Laboratório de Ideias de Negócio Mercado ANÁLISE DO MERCADO Segmentos do mercado identifica os principais segmentos do mercado, descreve as respetivas atratividades e procura descobrir novos segmentos Quais são os segmentos de clientes mais importantes? Quais são os segmentos com o maior potencial de crescimento?  market analysis competitors the objective of this analysis is to perceive and anticipate competitors’ initiatives and responses due to the intensification of the competitive rivalry  market analysis competitors 1. Identifying Competitors q Two possible approaches o Demand-side based (focus on satisfying the same set of customer needs) o Supply side-based (focus on similar resource base, technology, operations) q Three types of competitors o Direct: serves the same customer needs with the same resources on a given territory, market, business or industry (Ford/Toyota/Kia) o Indirect: serves the same customer needs with different resources (ex. packing – glass/plastic/aluminium) or with different distribution channels (Avon/retail stores) o Potential: they don’t serve the same customer base, but have the same resource base or equivalent capabilities (e.g. capabilities to produce digital electronic devices like cell phones/cameras/tablets, etc.)  market analysis competitors 2. Identifying Competitor Information Needs there are four key knowledge areas 1. the competitor’s marketplace strategy in terms of § Scope – product offer and customers that purchase them § Posture – how it competes or wants to compete in, like product line width, features, functionality, service, availability, image and reputation, prices, selling and relationships § Goals – its purpose in being in those segments, like market share goals, cost efficiencies or cash flow targets, the vision or even to penetrate a major distribution channel  market analysis competitors 2. the sources of a competitive advantage which are key to understanding its strengths and weaknesses and its likely moves in the market; the analysis should include § Inputs – identify the competitor’s suppliers, labour costs and WACC § Technology – assess competitors’ current operations and product technology; the direction of its technology investments; competitor’s published patents and scientific follow; the number of R&D personnel § Operations – many aspects of a competitor’s operations can be accessed simply by buying its products and examining or reverse engineering them § Products – assess the products as customers see them; customer surveys are a key and frequently used tool in this analysis to see what aspects of the product we should analyse § Access, Segments, and Customers – analysis of the type, number, and quality of channel members serving a competitor, and its coverage in different channels of distribution; knowledge of competitors’ penetration of the various segments; the customers a firm chooses to sell (can be a source of competitive disadvantage)  market analysis competitors 3. assessing and interpreting competitive signals and actions the interpretation of a competitor’s actions requires § characterize the type of action (frontal attack; flanking attack and pricing actions) § identify the nature of the action by asking a set of questions, like How was the action taken? Was it announced? Quietly implemented? How did it match or differ from the competitor’s past actions and strategies? Does the action follow accepted industry practice?  market analysis competitors 4. the competitor’s response profile (the competitive response depends) § the characteristics of the firm taking the action (i.e., its size and reputation for competitiveness) § the characteristics of the action (i.e., a new market entry or price change) § the characteristics of the rival (i.e., its size, performance, or desired reputation) § the environmental characteristics (such as market turbulence, growth) the combination of the analysis of competitors' goals and assumptions together with competitors' current strategies and capabilities allows one to estimate their response profiles  market analysis competitors  market analysis competitors Idealab 23ª Laboratório de Ideias de Negócio Mercado Concorrentes identifica os concorrentes assim como os respetivos pontos fortes Quem são os nossos concorrentes? Quem são os atores dominantes no nosso setor? Quais são as suas vantagens e desvantagens competitivas? Descreva as suas principais ofertas e em que segmento de clientes estes estão focados? Qual é a sua estrutura de custos? Que influências têm sobre os nossos segmentos de clientes, fluxos de rendimento e margens?  external environment conditions: the right side of the SA the objective of this tool is to understand the conditions in the External Environment of the firm that could affect his actions, anticipating Opportunities and Threats that they have to deal External Environment Conditions external environment conditions: the right side of the SA §the objective of this analysis is to understand all the segments of the firm’s External Environment § and their implications for selecting and implementing their strategies § once they cannot directly control them external environment conditions: the right side of the SA the objective of this analysis is to understand the profitability potential within an industry (or segment of an industry) in which it competes or may choose to compete An industry’s profit potential is a function of the five forces of competition strategies are chosen, in part, because of the influence of an industry’s characteristics external environment conditions: the right side of the SA external environment conditions: the right side of the SA external environment conditions: the right side of Idealab the SA 23ª Laboratório de Ideias de Negócio Mercado Produtos e Serviços substitutos descreve os substitutos potenciais para a nossa oferta – incluindo os de outros mercados e indústrias Que produtos/serviços é que podem substituir os nossos produtos e serviços? Quanto é que estes custam, em comparação com os nossos? Com que facilidade é que os clientes mudam para esses produtos/serviços substitutos? Esses produtos/serviços encontram-se em que modelos de negócio tradicionais? Fornecedores e outros atores na cadeia de valor descreve os incumbentes-chave da cadeia de valor do nosso mercado e identifica atores novos ou emergentes Quais são as empresas-chave na nossa cadeia de valor? Como é que o nosso modelo de negócio depende de outras empresas? Estão a emergir novas empresas no mercado? Quais são as mais lucrativas?