Applied%20AI%209.pdf

History of automation, The Future of Work, and Superintelligence AI for Innovation and Entrepreneurship Tristan Post | January 8th, 2024 | TUM Image: https://anatoliancivilizationmuseum.wordpress.com/paleotic-age/nederlands-in-paleolithic-age/ Image: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/ai-future-hum...

History of automation, The Future of Work, and Superintelligence AI for Innovation and Entrepreneurship Tristan Post | January 8th, 2024 | TUM Image: https://anatoliancivilizationmuseum.wordpress.com/paleotic-age/nederlands-in-paleolithic-age/ Image: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/ai-future-human-workforce-navigating-change-adam-geary/ Image: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/industrial-revolution-led-to-boom-in-adultery-3qtchbfwh Image: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4a/Adolph_Menzel_-_Eisenwalzwerk_-_Google_Art_Project.jpg Image: https://www.kayak.de/news/dubai-sehenswuerdigkeiten/ Image: http://travelweekly.co.uk/news/travel-technology/singapore-champions-sustainability Image: https://medium.com/@ppregazzi/tokyo-a-symphony-of-tradition-and-innovation-ec594b6b29f1 Image: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2rrnxbukvlM Image: https://danpal.com/high-tech-industrial-daylighting-solutions-by-danpal/ Source: Muehlhauser, L. (n.d.). How big a deal was the Industrial Revolution? Luke Muehlhauser. Available at https://lukemuehlhauser.com/industrial-revolution/ Image: https://www.nationalgeographic.co.uk/history-and-civilisation/2018/11/death-of-missionary-could-put-this-indigenous-tribes-survival-at-risk Image: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/05/brazil-indigenous-tribes-missionary-agency-ricardo-lopes-dias-christianity-disease Image: https://www.instagram.com/p/CQqjjC0hGiB/ Image: https://www.survivalinternational.org/campaigns Human heights over the long-run Source: Source: Hermanussen (2003) and NCD RisC, Human Height (2017)OurWorldInData.org/human-height/ ‹#› Image: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/machine-age-onur-artıkoğlu/ Source: Fortnow, L. (2017, December 13). Our AI future: The Good and the Ugly. Computational Complexity. Available at https://blog.computationalcomplexity.org/2017/12/our-ai-future-good-and-ugly.html ‹#› Image: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/73/Luddite.jpg https://www.alamy.com/stock-photo/silesian-weavers-uprising-1844.html?sortBy=relevant ‹#› ‹#› Image: https://twitter.com/OtisLebanon/status/1463519750055682051 Image: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Stockmannin_hissitytöt_vuonna_1930..jpg Image: https://henrylgreenidge.medium.com/how-a-historic-strike-paved-the-way-for-the-automated-elevator-and-what-those-lessons-could-mean-a0ae49993796 ‹#› Image: https://www.newspapers.com/newspage/429882227/ Video Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_h1ooyyFkF0&t=430s Source: Turner, G. [@garyturner]. (2018, February 23). [Tweet]. Twitter. Available at https://twitter.com/garyturner/status/967061716503814144 Image: https://www.linkedin.com Image: https://www.t-online.de PD F Levy, Frank S., Computers and Populism: Artificial Intelligence, Jobs and Politics in the Near Term (January 15, 2018). Available at SSRN: https:// ssrn.com/abstract=3091867 Future of Work ‹#› PD F ‹#› Video Job Versus Tasks ‹#› Replacement vs. reinstatement effect Source: Acemoglu, D., & Restrepo, P. (2019). Automation and New Tasks: How Technology Displaces and Reinstates Labor. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 33(2), 3-30. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.33.2.3 Image: https://twitter.com/ItsKieranDrew/status/1642894030068408323 Image: https://riskyregencies.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/Lamplighter-at-dusk.jpg Source: Bessen, J. E. (2016). How Computer Automation Affects Occupations: Technology, Jobs, and Skills. Boston University School of Law, Law and Economics Research Paper No. 15-49. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2690435 Routine Occupation vs Non-Routine Occupations Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey. (2013). Routine versus Non-Routine Work [Graph]. In S. Albanesi, et al. Liberty Street Economics. Available at https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2013/03/is-jobpolarization-holding-back-the-labor-market/ Routine/Non-routine & manual/cognitive occupations Source: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. (2019). Chapter 2. A digital world of work: Transformations of occupations and the implications for skills needs. In OECD Skills Outlook 2019: Thriving in a Digital World. OECD. Available at https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/sites/ec2a9345-en/index.html?itemId=/content/component/ec2a9345-en#figure-d1e4108 Source: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. (2019). Chapter 2. A digital world of work: Transformations of occupations and the implications for skills needs. In OECD Skills Outlook 2019: Thriving in a Digital World. OECD. Available at https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/sites/ec2a9345-en/index.html?itemId=/content/component/ec2a9345-en#figure-d1e4108 ‹#› Source: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. (2019). Chapter 2. A digital world of work: Transformations of occupations and the implications for skills needs. In OECD Skills Outlook 2019: Thriving in a Digital World. OECD. Available at https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/sites/ec2a9345-en/index.html?itemId=/content/component/ec2a9345-en#figure-d1e4108 Source: Bruun, E., & Duka, A. (2018). Artificial Intelligence, Jobs and the Future of Work: Racing with the Machines. Basic Income Studies, 13. https://doi.org/10.1515/bis-2018-0018 Early evidence of impact of ChatGPT on time and quality Source: Noy, S., & Zhang, W. (2023, June 7). The productivity effects of generative artificial intelligence. VoxEU Column. CEPR. Available at https:// cepr.org/voxeu/columns/productivity-effects-generative-artificial-intelligence ChatGPT seems to improve of quality of work Source: Dell'Acqua, F., McFowland, E., Mollick, E. R., Lifshitz-Assaf, H., Kellogg, K., Rajendran, S., Krayer, L., Candelon, F., & Lakhani, K. R. (2023, September 15). Navigating the Jagged Technological Frontier: Field Experimental Evidence of the Effects of AI on Knowledge Worker Productivity and Quality [Working paper]. Harvard Business School Technology & Operations Mgt. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4573321 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4573321 Use of ChatGPT seems to profit the less skilled more Source: Dell'Acqua, F., McFowland, E., Mollick, E. R., Lifshitz-Assaf, H., Kellogg, K., Rajendran, S., Krayer, L., Candelon, F., & Lakhani, K. R. (2023, September 15). Navigating the Jagged Technological Frontier: Field Experimental Evidence of the Effects of AI on Knowledge Worker Productivity and Quality [Working paper]. Harvard Business School Technology & Operations Mgt.. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4573321 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ ssrn.4573321 But skills required change Source: Dell'Acqua, F., McFowland, E., Mollick, E. R., Lifshitz-Assaf, H., Kellogg, K., Rajendran, S., Krayer, L., Candelon, F., & Lakhani, K. R. (2023, September 15). Navigating the Jagged Technological Frontier: Field Experimental Evidence of the Effects of AI on Knowledge Worker Productivity and Quality [Working paper]. Harvard Business School Technology & Operations Mgt.. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4573321 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ ssrn.4573321 ChatGPT also has an impact on highly skilled individuals Source: Dell'Acqua, F., McFowland, E., Mollick, E. R., Lifshitz-Assaf, H., Kellogg, K., Rajendran, S., Krayer, L., Candelon, F., & Lakhani, K. R. (2023, September 15). Navigating the Jagged Technological Frontier: Field Experimental Evidence of the Effects of AI on Knowledge Worker Productivity and Quality [Working paper]. Harvard Business School Technology & Operations Mgt.. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4573321 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4573321 Image: https://www.futuristgerd.com The Market exploded Source: Max Roser (2023) - “Employment in Agriculture” Published online at OurWorldInData.org. Available at https://ourworldindata.org/employment-in-agriculture The Market exploded Algorithmic Management ‹#› PD F ‹#› ‹#› ‹#› ‹#› This is only a temporary phase of maladjustment. All this means in the long run that mankind is solving its economic problem. I would predict that the standard of life in progressive countries one hundred years hence will be between four and eight times as high as it is to-day. John Maynard Keynes Economic possibility for our Grandchildren (1930) ‹#› Output per hour Source: Feenstra et al. (2015), Penn World Table (2021). Graph: Our World in Data. CC BY. Available at https://ourworldindata.org/economic-growth Average weekly working hours Source: Huberman & Minns (2007). Graph: Our World in Data. CC BY. Available from: https://ourworldindata.org/working- 15-hour work week? Average weekly working hours in Germany Source: Huberman & Minns (2007). Graph: Our World in Data. CC BY. Available from: https://ourworldindata.org/workinghours Source: Suzman, J. (2020, August 28). [Title of the Article]. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/8dd71dc3-4566-48e0-a1d9-3e8bd2b3f60f › Source: Denning, S. (2022). Reinventing Capitalism in the Digital Age. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Source: https://x.com/MrAndrewRosas/status/1516109054015328265?s=20 video Source: https://www.tiktok.com/@ajla_talks/ video/7162171326541729067 Artificial General Intelligence ‹#› ‹#› Google DeepMind CEO: AGI is Coming ‘in a Few Years’ The accelerated pace of AI advancements made Demis Hassabis believe AGI will arrive much sooner than expected. “We could be just a few years, maybe within a decade, away” to AGI, said Google DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis, at The Wall Street Journal’s Future of Everything Festival. “The progress in the last few years has been pretty incredible. … I don’t see any reason why that progress is going to slow down. I think it may even accelerate.” OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster, sources say Some at OpenAI believe Q* (pronounced Q-Star) could be a breakthrough in the startup’s search for what’s know as artificial general intelligence (AGI), one of the people told Reuters. OpenAI defines AGI as autonomous systems that surpass humans in most economically valuable tasks Meet Aleph Alpha, Europe’s Answer to OpenAI The European Union is desperate for its own artificial intelligence giant. German startup Aleph Alpha might be its best hope. But Andrulis considers LLMs just a stepping stone. “What we are building is artificial general intelligence,” he says. AGI, as it’s known, is widely seen as the ultimate aim of generative AI companies—an artificial, humanlike intelligence that can be applied to a wide range of tasks. Source: https://www.microsoft.com ‹#› ‹#› ‹#› Superintelligence ‹#› Singularity & Intelligence Explosion ‹#› Singularity ‹#› Big Bang Black Hole ‹#› Intelligence Explosion ‹#› ‹#› ‹#› ‹#› ‹#› Alignment ‹#› Paperclip Maximizer The scenario describes an advanced artificial intelligence tasked with manufacturing paperclips. If such a machine were not programmed to value human life, given enough power over its environment, it would try to turn all matter in the universe, including human beings, into paperclips or machines that manufacture paperclips Could an AI Paperclip Maximizer machine turn the earth into paperclips? Image: https://medium.com/ ‹#› Suppose we have an AI whose only goal is to make as many paper clips as possible. The AI will realize quickly that it would be much better if there were no humans because humans might decide to switch it off. Because if humans do so, there would be fewer paper clips. Also, human bodies contain a lot of atoms that could be made into paper clips. The future that the AI would be trying to gear towards would be one in which there were a lot of paper clips but no humans. Nick Bostrom Philosopher ‹#› ASI Scenarios Morris, M. R., Sohl-dickstein, J., Fiedel, N., Warkentin, T., Dafoe, A., Faust, A., Farabet, C., & Legg, S. (2023, November 4). Levels of AGI: Operationalizing Progress on the Path to AGI. Google DeepMind. Available at https://arxiv.org/pdf/2311.02462.pdf ‹#› Video Source: https:// www.youtube.com/ watch?v=tlOIHko8ySg Alignment ‹#› ‹#› ASI Scenarios ‹#› Source: AP Images ‹#› Image: https://www.freepik.com/