10 Population wo.pdf

Population Demographics and economics Demographic and economic phenomena have complex interactions Economic changes cause demographic changes Demographich changes cause economic changes They can both respond to common causes (for ex: culture or politics) Outline 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. World popu...

Population Demographics and economics Demographic and economic phenomena have complex interactions Economic changes cause demographic changes Demographich changes cause economic changes They can both respond to common causes (for ex: culture or politics) Outline 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. World population Urbanization Demographic transition Population ageing Migrations Current trends and projections Gender economics World population Maybe convergence of births and deaths United Nations. Population Fact-sheets, nº 6/2019. December 2019, p. 2. Outline 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. World population Urbanization Demographic transition Population ageing Migrations Current trends and projections Gender economics Urbanization Strong increase in the number of megacities Fuente: UN, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Dynamics : World Urbanization Prospects. The 2018 Revision, p. 58. Urbanization Increase of urban populations Specially in less developed countries Urbanization Partly because of population growth, mostly due to migration UN, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Dynamics : World Urbanization Prospects. The 2018 Revision, p.36. Outline 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. World population Urbanization Demographic transition Population ageing Migrations Current trends and projections Gender economics Demographic transition: the model The Demographic Transition Model is based on historical trends of the birth rate (annual births/1000 people) and death rate (annual deaths/1000 people) . The model predicts that a country’s population growth rate goes through several stages as it develops, and the interaction between the birth and death rates cause significant changes in population size and dynamics. A country typically goes from one stage to the next as certain social and economic forces cause changes in the birth and death rates. Demographic transition: the model Stage 1 (high stationary) - Both birth and death rates are high. - Population size remains fairly constant but can have major swings with events such as wars or pandemics. Stage 2 (early expanding), - Significant decline of the death rate, especially for children - birth rates remain high - Strong rapid population growth Stage 3 (late expanding) - Birth rates start to decrease - Population growth continues, but at a lower rate Stage 4 (low stationary) - Both birth and death rates are low - Stabilization of population size Stage 5 (declining) Demographic transition: the model Stage 1 (high stationary) - Both birth and death rates are high. - Population size remains fairly constant but can have major swings with events such as wars or pandemics. Demographic transition: the model Demographic transition: the model Stage 1 (high stationary) - Both birth and death rates are high. - Population size remains fairly constant but can have major swings with events such as wars or pandemics. Stage 2 (early expanding), - Significant decline of the death rate, especially for children - birth rates remain high - Strong rapid population growth Demographic transition: the model Demographic transition: the model Stage 1 (high stationary) - Both birth and death rates are high. - Population size remains fairly constant but can have major swings with events such as wars or pandemics. Stage 2 (early expanding), - Significant decline of the death rate, especially for children - birth rates remain high - Strong rapid population growth Stage 3 (late expanding) - Birth rates start to decrease - Population growth continues, but at a lower rate Demographic transition: the model Demographic transition: the model Stage 1 (high stationary) - Both birth and death rates are high. - Population size remains fairly constant but can have major swings with events such as wars or pandemics. Stage 2 (early expanding), - Significant decline of the death rate, especially for children - birth rates remain high - Strong rapid population growth Stage 3 (late expanding) - Birth rates start to decrease - Population growth continues, but at a lower rate Stage 4 (low stationary) - Both birth and death rates are low - Stabilization of population size Stage 5 (declining) - Fertility rates fall significantly below replacement level (2 children) - The elderly population is greater than the youthful population. Demographic transition: the model Demographic transition: the model Stage 1 (high stationary) - Both birth and death rates are high. - Population size remains fairly constant but can have major swings with events such as wars or pandemics. Stage 2 (early expanding), - Significant decline of the death rate, especially for children - birth rates remain high - Strong rapid population growth Stage 3 (late expanding) - Birth rates start to decrease - Population growth continues, but at a lower rate Stage 4 (low stationary) - Both birth and death rates are low - Stabilization of population size Stage 5 (declining) - Fertility rates fall significantly below replacement level (2 children) - The elderly population is greater than the youthful population. Demographic transition: the model Demographic transition: the model The world may be approaching the 4th stage Birth rate Death rate United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division : World Population Prospects 2019. Demographic transition: the model Developed countries are in the 4th stage (maybe even 5th) Birth rate Death rate United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division : World Population Prospects 2019. Demographic transition: the model Developing countries are in the 3th stage (Less developed regions comprise all regions of Africa, Asia (except Japan), Latin America and the Caribbean plus Melanesia, Micronesia and Polynesia) Birth rate Death rate United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division : World Population Prospects 2019. Outline 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. World population Urbanization Demographic transition Population ageing Migrations Current trends and projections Gender economics Population ageing Falling fertility rates UN. Department of Ec. and Social Affairs, Population Division. World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision. The end of high fertility is near , p. 1. Population ageing Falling fertility rates, with regional differences UN. Department of Ec. and Social Affairs, Population Division. World Population Prospects 2019. Highlights, p. 23. Population ageing Life expectancy increases United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs. World Population Ageing 2019. Highlights, p. 8. Population ageing So we see an ageing world United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs. World Population Ageing 2019. Highlights, p. 7. Population ageing So we see an ageing world, with regional differences United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs. World Population Ageing 2019. Highlights, p. 7. Population ageing Which causes increases in dependency ratios (people over 65/ people of working age) United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Population Wallchart 2017. Population ageing - A global phenomenon: Virtually every country in the world is experiencing growth in the size and proportion of older persons in their population. • The developed world has high age-dependency ratios • But the rate is growing fastest in emerging and developing countries - New measures of ageing, instead of a fixed line (“over 65”): • Based on RLE (remaining life expectancy) • Economic measures: age-related inactive adult population / employed population • HALE (health-adjusted life expectancy): average equivalent number of years of full health that a person could expect to live • Functional measures (for example, cognitive age) … Population ageing - Population ageing will put increased financial pressure on old-age support systems • Increased fiscal pressure in systems with high levels of public transfers (Europe, LatAm) • Increased pressure on individuals and families to support consumption during old-age (parts of Asia). • This may cause inequality and age-related poverty - Will have impacts in all areas of life - Changes in patterns in C, I, labor markets… - Pension systems - Health services - Housing - Politics and voting Outline 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. World population Urbanization Demographic transition Population ageing Migrations Current trends and projections Gender economics Migrations - Migration movements are complex issues, but causes can in general be attributed to economic, political, social and/or demographic factors - Experts typically refer two opposing factors. - Attraction factors (pull) - Expulsion factors (push) Migrations - Example: economic crisis OECD. International Migration Outlook 2014, p. 33. Migrations: current characteristics Different levels across the world International Organization for Migration. World Migration Report 2020, p. 23. Migrations : current characteristics Relative less importance when compared with flow of goods International Organization for Migration. Migration and the UN Post 2015Agenda. International Organization for Migration, p. 28. Migrations : current characteristics More variety (South-South, South-North, North-North) United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. International migrants numbered 272 million in 2019. Pop. Facts, Sep. 2019, p. 3. United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. International Migration Highlights 2020, p. 23. Migrations : current characteristics High presence of women United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: International Migration Wallchart 2019. Migrations : current characteristics Other characteristics: • Rising diversity • Issues with illegal / irregular immigration • More transnational social capital: lasting, deep bonds with place of origin Migrations: effects - On the receiving country - Welfare state impacts (tax revenue, pensions, education, health) - Rejuvenation: Short-run increase of birth rates, but inmigrant populations assimilate and replicate demographich patterns https://population.un.org/wpp/Publications/Files/WPP2019-Wallchart.pdf Migrations: effects - On the sending country - Remittances: money that migrants sends back home World Bank. Migration and Remittances Factbook 2016, p. 29. Migrations: effects - On the sending country - Remittances - Risk of brain drain (educate students in home country and they go work at another country) / potential of increased human K if migrants return OECD. International Migration Outlook 2015, p.31. - May alleviate pressures on labor markets: lower labor supply could increase wages. Outline 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. World population Urbanization Demographic transition Population ageing Migrations Current trends and projections Gender economics Current trends and projections Sub-Saharan Africa is where population is increasing the most Demographic squeeze: depending population are lower than working population Primary indicators: like life expectancy We might see negative population growth Depending population is increasing DTM-model Birth rate Death rate Size of the population https://population.un.org/wpp/Publications/Files/WPP2019_10KeyFindings.pdf Outline 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. World population Urbanization Demographic transition Population ageing Migrations Current trends and projections Gender economics Gender economics Gender economics is sometimes a controversial topic Not to be confused with topics that deal with related issues (feminism, gender ideology….) No clear definition of “gender economics”. Some people prefer the term “gender aware economics” Concepts The European Institute for Gender Equality defines: “Gender awareness” as: “The ability to view society from the perspective of gender roles and understand how this has affected women’s needs in comparison to the needs of men” And “Gender analysis”: “Critical examination of how differences in gender roles, activities, needs, opportunities and rights/entitlements affect women, men, girls and boys in a given policy area, situation or context.” Concepts Gender-awareness in economics (also referred to as gender sensitivity) requires to be informed and attentive to how gender bias and dynamics can influence economic decisions, processes and outcomes and cause gender inequalities in wellbeing. Conversely, gender blindness may be understood as ignoring/failing to address the gender dimension: An oversight of gender roles and relationships that cause gender biases to occur in economic policy processes and outcomes Gender Equality: - Means equality in rights, responsibilities and opportunities for both women and men. - Does not mean that men and women are (or need to be become) the same. - Requires that the both men and women´s perceptions, priorities and needs will have equal weight in the planning and allocation of resources. Measures We already talked about some gender-specific indicators in the poverty chapter. The Social Institutions and Gender Index is a composite index designed by the OECD to measure gender equality in a society focusing only on social institutions that impact the roles of men and women, such as a society's norms, values and attitudes that relate to women Measures The Gender Equality Index provides a “comprehensive map of gender gaps adjusted by levels of achievement in the EU and across Member States based on the EU policy framework” (Gender Equality Index Report, page 2) It covers only EU countries, and is constructed from 27 variables using a rather complex methodology. Gender inequality and growth Estimates of the impact of unequal access to education have established robust effects of gender inequality on growth: Gender inequality and growth There is however some debate on whether there may be short-term growth benefits from gender inequality, as it may result in lower wages for women for equally productive work (which may in turn foster investment, exports and growth) This kind of wage discrimination is sometimes believed to have played a part in the economic growth of some Asian countries that have relied on femaleintensive export production since the 1970s (Seguino 2000). Other studies (Schober, Winter-Ebme, 2011), however, have found that wage inequality is actually detrimental for growth. Gender inequality and growth A 2015 study by the McKinsey Global Institute found that close to $12 trillion (11%) could be added to GDP by 2025 Fiscal policy and gender equality Fiscal policy is one of the areas where gender aware economics has had a greater impact Government fiscal policies that appear neutral on the surface may have the impact of increasing gender inequality, or may not work in the way they were intended because of these different impacts. Gender budgeting Gender budgeting (or gender responsive budgeting): an approach to budgeting that uses fiscal policy and administration to promote gender equality. • It is important because spending and taxation can have very different impacts on women and men because of their different situations, needs and priorities. • It can highlight these differences and improve the effectiveness, efficiency, accountability and transparency of government policy • It usually requires analyzing the budget for its effect on gender equality • It usually requires considering equity in budget performance indicators • It does not mean a separate budget for men and women, or increasing funding for “women´s programs” Gender budgeting Some examples of gender-responsive INPUT indicators in a budget: • Amount of money allocated to create and maintain women-specific health services and infrastructure (hospitals and clinics with maternal or infant care units, OBG equipment), in both rural and urban settings • Amount of money allocated to create and maintain publicly funded care services (caring for young children or the elderly) • Amount of money allocated to these services so they may be free rather than fee-based • Amount of money allocated to programs for labor market insertion of women Gender budgeting Some examples of gender-responsive OUTPUT indicators in a budget: • Number of women and infants seen in the health services • Number of women who had to bring their own birthing materials / were supplied with them at the clinic • Number of children / elderly people who received service in a care facility • Number of women and young children who received free service / paid fees • Number of community workers employed by the government • Number of women who found a job in the paid economy via public employment services