Food Insecurity and Disaster Risk PDF

SH1639 How Food Insecurity Influences Disaster Risk This chapter looks at whether, and if so, how, food insecurity results in higher disaster risk. What direct but also indirect influence does food insecurity have on the type and the extent of natural hazards and a society’s susc...

SH1639 How Food Insecurity Influences Disaster Risk This chapter looks at whether, and if so, how, food insecurity results in higher disaster risk. What direct but also indirect influence does food insecurity have on the type and the extent of natural hazards and a society’s susceptibility? How do the consequences of food insecurity influence coping capacities and adaptive capacities regarding natural hazards such as floods or cyclones? Causes of food insecurity In order to analyze the influence of food insecurity on disaster risk, it is necessary to look at the causes of food insecurity along the four (4) dimensions of availability, stability, access, and utilization. Over the last decades, this has led to numerous discussions. Early approaches tended to concentrate on technological conditions affecting the productivity of agro-ecosystems and the biophysical carrying capacity of various climate zones and soil conditions as the main causes of food insecurity. The publication of Amartya Sen’s seminal research on poverty and famines (Sen 1981) brought institutional explanations more to the fore, particularly regarding access to food and the corresponding entitlements: Food insecurity is not only determined by the limits of production and yields but crucially result from an unbalanced institutional and economic system. Here, problems in the distribution and the financial, as well as institutional availability of food, are often the chief cause of food insecur ity. Recently, the utilization dimension has also been given increasing attention and has raised questions regarding the quality and use of food. Today, most scientists and practitioners agree that all four dimensions contribute to food insecurity and therefore have to be looked at in terms of their combined effects. Food insecurity, therefore, results from the interaction of multiple environmental and socio-economic factors: natural hazards, the level of technology, and insufficient redistribution or trade systems are examples. Poverty is a central factor since it complicates access to means of production and results in lower purchasing power on food markets (Smith et al. 2000). Insufficient infrastructure plays a role if it hinders access to means of production, markets, and transportation, thus restricting production and distribution. This problem is often caused by a lack of government or private sector investme nts. Political instability, corruption and/or conflicts also lead to a lower capacity of governments to maintain food security. Rapid increases in food prices, unstable food markets, shifts in trade, and food speculation can be further causes of food insecurity. In addition, the rising demand for food owing to population growth, biofuels, livestock farming, and fodder cultivation is increasingly being discussed as a threat to food security. Looking at the household level, a large share of dependent household members, for example, those who are too young or too old to contribute their labor to food production, are of central importance. If members of the household who normally maintain food production fall sick, this can put a considerable strain on the entire household. The lack of sufficient land and water provides further limitations to achieving food security. Hence, environmental factors such as climate variability (Wheeler/ von Braun 2013) and soil degradation (Pimentel 2006) can threaten and reduce food security. 01 Handout 6 *Property of STI Page 1 of 8  SH1639 How food insecurity raises disaster risk According to the WorldRiskIndex, disaster risk, i.e. the risk of suffering harm in the event of earthquakes, floods, cyclones, droughts or sea level rise, is shaped by four components: spatial and temporal exposure to natural hazards, susceptibility, coping capacities, and adaptive capacities. Food insecurity can have an effect on all of these components, as science and practice have clearly shown. Food insecurity and exposure: Food insecurity often forces people to expand their agricultura l production into areas with greater natural hazards. Due to the scarcity of land, migrants from regions with undernourishment often have to settle and farm in locations with a greater exposure that have previously not been used by the local population. For example, it has been observed that in years of drought, smallholders in West Africa are increasingly extending their crops to plains threatened by floods (Pardoe et al. in press). In addition to these spatial effects, food insecurity can also amplify temporal exposure patterns. This is primarily the case where people are forced to move their growing or production period to risky seasons. For example, fishers in Southeast Asia often have to extend their fishing activities into the typhoon season, particularly in times of food insecurity (Arnason 2006). Also, cropping that extends into the flood or dry season is an issue in many cases. Such effects drive up disaster risk not only with regard to physical well-being but also in relation to economic losses. In addition, food insecurity frequently leads to a direct increase or intensification of natural hazards, and therefore exposure, by exacerbating local overexploitation and degradation of ecosystems (Munang et al. 2013). The research field of political ecology deals with a wide range of case studies in which food insecure communities (have to) overexploit their local environments in a bid to secure their food production. Deforestation of hill-slopes, for instance, has in many cases been stepped up in order to create some additional space for agricultural production). However, while there are only margina l additional yields, such measures rapidly increase the risk of landslides and flash floods (Mugagga et al. 2012). In a similar manner, overgrazing in semi-arid ecosystems has, in many parts of the world, resulted in the degradation of vegetation and an intensification of natural hazards such as flooding or desertification. At the global level, too, intensive food production is indirectly contributing to an amplification of climate change-related natural hazards, since agriculture is currently contributing ten to twelve percent of annual greenhouse gas emissions (IPCC 2014a). Food insecurity and susceptibility: Susceptibility can be understood as the inherent predisposition to experience harm when exposed to natural hazards. The susceptibility of communities and individ ua ls strongly depends on food supply, i.e. on the availability, stability, access to, and utilization of food. For instance, undernourished children run a greater risk of suffering physical harm in the event of flooding or another crisis situation. In addition, undernourishment usually leads to a lowering of physical performance, which further impedes the food security of people working in agriculture. At the same time, linkages between food and disaster risk can be observed not only with regard to undernourishment but to an increasing degree also in terms of obesity, diabetes, and other consequences of malnutrition, especially in countries with high and medium income (Shrimpton/ Rokx 2012). Effects include, for example, a greater incidence of cardiovascular diseases during heat waves (Kenny et al. 2010). Food insecurity and coping capacities: Food insecurity has negative impacts on the ability to cope with natural hazards and crisis situations. Typically, food insecurity also implies a shortage or lack of food stock reserves at national and local level (Hendriks 2015). Hence, food cannot be obtained when 01 Handout 6 *Property of STI Page 2 of 8  SH1639 it is needed most: in times of acute disasters and crises in which local food production comes to a standstill and trade or even external emergency relief cannot be performed effectively due to infrastructure disruptions. In addition, during crisis situations, there are short- or long-term increases in food prices. The Global Hunger Index The Global Hunger Index (GHI) is a tool designed to comprehensively display hunger globally, regionally, and by country. Each year, the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) calculates GHI scores in order to assess progress, or the lack thereof, in decreasing hunger. To reflect the multidimensional nature of hunger, the GHI combines the following four component indicators into one index: Undernourishment: the proportion of undernourished people as a percentage of the population (reflecting the share of the population with insufficient caloric intake) Child Wasting: the proportion of children under the age of five who suffer from wasting (that is, low weight for their height, reflecting acute undernutrition) Child Stunting: the proportion of children under the age of five who suffer from stunting (that is, low height for their age, reflecting chronic undernutrition) Child Mortality: the mortality rate of children under the age of five (partially reflecting the fatal synergy of inadequate nutrition and unhealthy environments). There are several advantages to measuring hunger using this multidimensional approach. It notably reflects the nutrition situation not only of the population as a whole, but also of children, a vulnerab le subset of the population for whom a lack of dietary energy, protein, or micronutrients (essential vitamins and minerals) leads to a high risk of illness, poor physical and cognitive development, or death. Furthermore, it combines independently measured indicators to reduce the effects of random measurement errors. The 2015 GHI has been calculated for 117 countries for which data on all four component indicators are available and where measuring hunger is considered most relevant. GHI scores are not calculated for some higher-income countries where the prevalence of hunger is very low (von Grebmer et al. 2015). Households affected by food insecurity are therefore frequently forced to sell valuables or assets, which in turn erodes their long-term coping and adaptive capacities and raises vulnerability to natural hazards as a whole. Food security and adaptive capacities: Food security ranks as one of the most fundame nta l development needs, and it is usually a key policy goal. In many countries, resources are used chiefly for this purpose. In most cases, excess resources can only be increasingly allocated to other areas of sustainable development such as disaster preparedness or adaptation to climate change once food security has been achieved. As the indicators of the WorldRiskIndex show, activities relevant to adaptation include, for example, measures in the areas of education, environmental protection, and healthcare. Reallocation of resources into such areas can be observed, once food-security has been taken care of, at various levels ranging from the household level to national or global development policies (FAO/ IFAD/ WFP 2011). At the same time, food insecurity represents a significant obstacle 01 Handout 6 *Property of STI Page 3 of 8  SH1639 to generating resources for adaptation. A recent study by the World Food Programme, for instance, revealed that child undernourishment leads to significant productivity losses (AUC et al. 2015). In turn, the resources generated for example for disaster risk reduction measures lag behind. Simila r ly, food insecurity has a wide range of impacts on concrete adaptation parameters such as education (by tying children to securing food supplies at the expense of school activities), gender balance (when precarious food situations lead to a structural discrimination of women and girls) or environme nta l protection (when, as described above, unsuitable production methods result in an intensification of environmental degradation and natural hazards). Hunger and disaster risk at global level What is the link between food insecurity and disaster risk at the global level? In order to examine this question, the following section looks at the correlation between the WorldRiskIndex (WRI) and the Global Hunger Index (GHI). The GHI serves as a tool to represent the hunger situation worldwide. A global index for food insecurity could so far not be compiled by the FAO due to data gaps. Therefore, the following analysis focuses particularly on the level of correlation between hunger and the two dimensions of the WRI: exposure and vulnerability. Since susceptibility, one of the three sub- components of vulnerability in the WRI, contains an indicator that relates directly to food (see Chapter 3) and would distort the results of the correlation analysis, vulnerability and the WRI were newly calculated for the 171 countries leaving out the indicator “Share of undernourished population” (in the following marked as vulnerability * and WRI* respectively). The analyses were conducted with the latest indexes from 2015. Based on the correlation analysis of the country data, a moderate positive relationship was identified between hunger and disaster risk (correlation coefficient r = 0.33 on a scale from -1 to +1). However, the individual components of the WRI* vary with regard to their statistical association with hunger. For example, if vulnerability* (i.e. susceptibility and the lack of coping and adaptive capacities) is considered exclusively, a very strong association with the hunger situation emerges (r = 0.91). In contrast, the above-described effects of hunger on exposure are spatially distinct. A statistica l correlation between exposure (according to its measure in the WRI) and hunger (as measured in the GHI) can therefore not be detected at the global level (r = -0.02). Many coastal countries in South America and Southeast Asia show a high disaster risk mainly because of their high exposure, without however belonging to the 34 most highly listed countries in the GHI Their placing in the GHI can primarily be traced back to a significant improvement in the food situatio n in both regions over the last decades that is based both on socioeconomic progress and on special programs to promote food security. For example, looking at the GHI values of 1990, one clearly recognizes that at the time, several countries in both regions were faced with a serious or even alarming hunger situation. The maps also show that there are common hotspots with high disaster risk and hunger. Eight of the 34 countries included in the analysis, meaning almost one quarter, show a very high disaster risk and simultaneously belong to the 34 countries with the biggest hunger problem. They comprise Bangladesh, Guinea-Bissau, Haiti, Madagascar, Niger, Sierra Leone, and Timor-Leste, as well as Chad. 01 Handout 6 *Property of STI Page 4 of 8  SH1639 Analyzing the overlaps of exposure and vulnerability* with hunger yields a spatially much more differentiated picture: Just three (3) of the 34 countries with the highest exposure (9 percent) overlap with the 34 countries with the biggest hunger problem: Bangladesh, Guinea-Bissau, and Timor-Leste. On a global level, hunger in a given country is therefore not primarily conditioned by exposure to natural hazards and vice versa. However, the maps also reveal that there is a very strong regional overlap between the countries characterized by hunger and countries with a high degree of vulnerability* (see below regarding the issue of causality): A total of 28 countries (approx. 82 percent of the considered countries) simultaneously show a “very high” level of vulnerability* and are among the top 34 countries with severe hunger problems. The great majority of these countries (around 89 per cent) are located in sub- Saharan Africa. However, the percentages can only be taken as a very rough reference value, since for several countries with a very high disaster risk no data on the food situation is available (for instance Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Tonga, and Vanuatu). Hence there is no assessment of the current hunger situation for these countries. These results demonstrate that first, there is a global hotspot in which hunger and high vulnerability* co-exist and appear to mutually reinforce each other. Second, hunger is evidently linked more strongly to a country’s prevalent socioeconomic and institutional vulnerability* than to its exposure to natural hazards. This link is also relevant to an understanding of the potential effects that climate change has on the hunger situation. Despite remaining uncertainties in global climate and yield models, the expected impacts of climate change on food security are strongest in those world regions that already represent hotspots of hunger today (Wheeler/ von Braun 2013). In addition to the potential yield effects, it is particularly the dimensions of access, stability, and utilization that are relevant to disaster risk and look set to increase owing to indirect effects of climate change (ibid.). Yet, since statistical significant correlation does not necessarily imply causation, care has to be taken when interpreting the above results. The statistical analysis alone does not allow for drawing conclusions on the presence and details of causal effects, especially since both phenomena – hunger and disaster vulnerability – might be caused by similar external factors, such as poverty or weak institutions. Therefore, complementary analyses, like the ones provided in the first part of the chapter, are necessary. Furthermore, it has to be taken into consideration that the analysis was conducted at country level and inferences regarding possible causal relations at other measurement scales cannot be automatically drawn. This becomes very clear in the lack of any linkages between exposure and hunger at the national level, while these are clearly evident at the local level, as shown in the examples above. Key results of the WorldRiskReport 2015 Vanuatu is the country with the highest disaster risk (Index value: 36.72) among the 171 countries covered by the WorldRiskIndex 2015. Tonga ranked 2nd (Index value: 28.45), and the Philippines, ranked 3rd (Index value: 27.98) have switched positions in comparison to last year. Whereas Tonga shows an increase in the lack of adaptive capacities, the Philippines have managed to slightly reduce their lack of adaptive capacities and susceptibility. The hotspot regions of disaster risk are in Oceania, Southeast Asia, Central America, and the Southern Sahel (see Map on pages 48/49). 01 Handout 6 *Property of STI Page 5 of 8  SH1639 Six island nations are represented among the 15 countries with the highest disaster risk. The other nine countries are also situated close to the sea. They are particularly exposed to natural hazards such as floods, cyclones, and sea-level rise. Updated figures were available for 15 of the 28 indicators for the WorldRiskIndex 2015. Focus: Food security The WorldRiskReport 2015 establishes a very urgent need for action to achieve better food security in the countries of Bangladesh, Burundi, Guinea-Bissau, Haiti, Cambodia, Cameroon, Madagascar, Niger, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Zimbabwe, Timor-Leste, and Chad, all of which are severely threatened by extreme natural events. An urgent need for action or a need for action has been established for further groups of countries and is demonstrated with the aid of indicators (see Map on pages 38/39). Food insecurity and disaster risk reinforce each other. Not only do disasters often have devastating consequences for a country’s food situation. Food insecurity conversely also raises disaster risk. For example, people are more exposed to natural hazards if a lack of food security forces them to migrate. In the new settlement areas, they are then often left with only those areas that bear a high disaster risk, such as steep hill slopes or river banks. People suffering from hunger can neither build up stocks for the event of a disaster nor can they take long-term measures to adapt to disaster risks. Environmental protection and changing over to resilient cultivation methods, for example, fall by the wayside. Worldwide, the lives of 2.5 billion people immediately depend on agriculture. The destruction of their harvests, livestock, or transportation routes by an extreme natural event represents an immediate threat to their livelihoods. 2 Pure food aid is increasingly losing significance in disaster situations. Instead, the regional markets are strengthened. More and more often, the people affected are provided with money and vouchers to buy what they need in the context of international relief measures. Recovery and rehabilitation efforts are also remunerated, which creates income sources and strengthe ns local craftspeople. Recommendations for action Investment in food security should be designed in such a way that the vulnerability of societies towards disasters is lowered. Conversely, a reduction of disaster risk also has a positive impact on food security. 01 Handout 6 *Property of STI Page 6 of 8  SH1639 Civil protection and emergency management alone will not be sufficient without strong climate change policies. At the COP21 climate conference in Paris in early December 2015, effective measures to limit global warming urgently need to be adopted. All states should commit themselves to the Two-Degree Target and contribute their fair share to achieving it. The new guidelines on shaping humanitarian aid which is to be resolved by the World Humanitarian Summit in Istanbul in May 2016 also ought to address the close link between food security and disaster risk. Donor countries as well as actors in humanitarian aid and development cooperation ought to support long-term development measures, such as seed exchange systems and training in resilient cultivation methods, and develop relief measures that are in harmony with them. Crisis prevention strategies should always be a part of development policy. Reducing disaster risk in the rural regions, where the overwhelming majority of people suffering hunger live, requires a determined effort to strengthen socioeconomic structures, e.g. by creating income alternatives to agriculture and the protection of land rights and the expansion of microcredit. The national governments should make a special effort to develop infrastructure, transport capacities, and markets in rural areas and provide government funding should this be required for the purpose. In order to identify their needs, they have to establish monitoring units. The participation of marginalized population groups such as smallholders and indige no us peoples should be ensured in all measures aimed at improving food security and lowering disaster risk. The major role that women play in food security has to be recognized. The special needs of children, expectant mothers, and people with disablements have to be consistently considered. Business and consumers in industrialized countries ought to reject trade in and purchase of agricultural produce the production of which destroys the natural resources in the long term. Common causes of food insecurity and extreme natural events can, for example, be eliminated by abandoning monocultures that emaciate the soil and using seed for which the respective climate zone is ideal. References Garschagen, M., Hagenlocher, M., Kloos, J., & Pardoe, J. (2015, November 17). World risk report 2015. Retrieved from United Nation Univers ity: http://collections.unu.edu/eserv/UNU:3303/WRR_2015_engl_online.pdf United Nations University. (2015) Fact Sheet WWR. Retrieved from https://i.unu.edu/media/ehs.unu.edu/news/11138/Fact-sheet-WWR-2015-English.pdf. 01 Handout 6 *Property of STI Page 7 of 8  SH1639 01 Handout 6 *Property of STI Page 8 of 8