Megatrends PDF

What is a Megatrend? What do YOU think?  Normal Trends vs Megatrends Not too suprising → they are slowly developing Derived from past developments More certain (because of constant, slow development) Long-term oriented Span around different areas of life Can pro-...

What is a Megatrend? What do YOU think?  Normal Trends vs Megatrends Not too suprising → they are slowly developing Derived from past developments More certain (because of constant, slow development) Long-term oriented Span around different areas of life Can pro-actively be dealt with (instead of only re-acting to a crisis) Neutral in outcome→ opportunity & threat at the same time; depends how you will handle them → (Highly) Likely scenarios that are going to happen (and therefore affect my business) History of Megatrends John Naisbitt (born 15.01.1929, Salt Lake City/USA) „Father“ of the term Megatrends Believed that it was the values of the 1960s counterculture, i.e., individualism, spiritualism, feminism, that would drive the country toward this new era of economic and cultural prosperity Linked 1960’s counterculture individualism and the deregulatory instincts of the Reagan-era (neoliberal and freemarket mind-set) => individualism, spiritualism, feminism, Change of Perspective: optimism and excitement about the future instead of crises Published 1982 (seeing opportunities) #1 New York Times best-seller list for 2 years 14 mio. copies in 57 Risen, C. 2021. John Naisbitt, Business Guru and Author of „Megatrends“, Dies at 92. New York Times, 14.04.2021, page 10. countries Tucker, R. 2021. What John Naisbitt Taught me about the Future. Forbes, 20.09.2021. Megatrends: Threat vs Opportunity McKinsey Global Institute Report on the Future of Work by the World Economic Forum (WEF) Scenario Analyses Definition: Scenarios are “focused descriptions of fundamentally different futures presented in coherent script-like or narrative fashion.” (Schoenmaker, 1993: 195). Characteristics strategically relevant variable onto ▪ Introduce multiple futures (Degree to which the causes of ▪ Scenarios do not aim to predict effects is unknown) the future, but rather bound it Uncertainty ▪ Conceptual framework within which to scan, encode, update and understand the future as it unfolds ▪ Enable better understanding of future uncertainties Complexity (Interdependency between variables/Conjuction of interrelated technological, social, political, cultural, Adjusted from Schoenmaker, 1993 economics forces) Scenario Analyses Strategic planning method used to make flexible long-term plans project into the future development based on the occurance of different assumptions often used by companies to project sales or performance Reactive > Proactive IF x is happening, than Y will happen Adjusted from Schoenmaker, 1993  Choose Scenarios: Decision Tree Tool for decision making, based on different assumptions „If X is going to happen, then Y is the best decision“ → goal: choose the optimal plan can be combined with Scenario Analysis; which helps evalating likelihoods Road Map: Scenario construction Trend Research Deals with processes of social change exact predictions → understanding processes of change & interpret them (long-term and slow) can be divided into diagnostic part (past) & hypothesis part (future) often part of market research Tools Opinion Research Trend Scouting/Spotting (identification of new developing trends that affect various areas of life) Delphi-Method (surveying group of experts in a field) demographis-based (predictions) Futurologists (systematically explore predictions and possibilities about the future and how they can emerge from the present) Zukunftsinstitut Goal: to offer „Future research“ “based on scientific methods & a systemic approach → translate trend analyzes & research into holistic outlook that enables innovative solutions and effective strategies” offer consulting services & publish research office in Vienna (Austria) and Frankfurt (Germany)  12 Megatrends Mobility Health Connectivity Globalization Neo-ecology Security Knowledge Gender Shift Individualization Culture New Work Urbanization Silver Society Megatrend: Mobility 15-minute city 24/7 society Car sharing Dash Delivery E-Mobility Global Migration Modern Nomadism Transportation Network Company (TNC) (=Uber/Lyft) Megatrend: Health Corporate Health Digital Health Downaging Immune boosting Quality of life Plant Based Preventive Health Self-optimization Self-tracking Megatrend: Connectivity Augmented Reality Big Data Blockchain Digital Health Digital Reputation Platform economy Internet of Things Sharing Economy Artificial intelligence Social Networks Predictive Analytics Megatrend: Globalization Population Growth Dependability Generation Global Global Migration Global Protest Culture Glocalization Modern Nomadism Neo-Nationalism Neo-Tribes Megatrend: Security Blockchain Cybercrime Basic Income Predictive Analytics Privacy Resilience Super-safe Society Transparency Megatrend: Neo-Ecology Beyond Plastic Circular Economy Decarbonization Global Protest Culture Green Pressure Green Tech Sharing Economy Minimalism Meaning Economy Plant-based Social business Regionalization Zero waste Megatrend: Knowledge Culture Fake News Education business Edutainment Collaboration Lifelong learning Open Innovation Open Knowledge Megatrend: Gender Shift Casual Feminism Diversity Fem-Tech Gender Awareness Gender Mainstreaming Identity Design LGBT+ Post-Gender Marketing Megatrend: Individualization Diversity Identity Design Quality of Life Neo-Tribes Self Care Single Society Social Cocooning Ungendered Lifestyle Megatrend: New Work Co-Working Corporate Health Gig Economy Human Relations Open Innovation Open Knowledge Remote Work Start-up-Culture Work-Life-Blending Megatrend: Urbanization 15-minute City Co-Living Megacities Micro Housing Third Places Urban Farming Urban Manufacturing Megatrend: Silver Society Digital Health Downaging Lifelong Learning Liquid Youth Preventive Health Pro Aging Un-retirement Interdependencies of Megatrends Practical Example Generally: world population is increasing But: Decreasing population in many (developed) countries (55 countries expected to decrease by 2050) Japan - the demographic time bomb: population peaked 128 million in 2008 decline thereafter Low fertility & increasing elderly population (65+) Rate of elderly population 26,7% (2016) →centenarians → higher social costs, paid by less people United Nations, 2019 National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, 2018a Kawai K, Oshita K, Kusube T. Model for projecting the generation of used disposable diapers in the era of depopulation and aging in Japan. Waste Manag Res. 2023 Jun;41(6) Practical Example  since 2011: sales of adult diapers > baby diapers → Huge market:  estimate: 50% more diaper sales by 2045 → Opportunity ($ € ¥) → Threads (for example externalities)  →50% more waste from diapers  → …more ideas…?  → https://www.businessinsider.com/signs-japan-demographic-time-bomb-2017-3?r=US&IR=T Kawai K, Oshita K, Kusube T. Model for projecting the generation of used disposable diapers in the era of depopulation and aging in Japan. Waste Manag Res. 2023 Jun;41(6) Incorporate Megatrends into YOUR Business Mobility Health Connectivity Globalization Neo-ecology Security Knowledge Gender Shift Individualization Culture New Work Urbanization Silver Society Reflection Exercise New Work Think about your own business idea… …how do the following Megatrends affect your idea & Business Model? Health Security Thanks for your Attention! Any questions? What is a Business Model Business Model: System of activities that determine the way a company does business A business model depicts: - content, - structure, and - governance of transactions designed to create value through the exploitation of business opportunities The design of value creation, delivery, and value capture mechanisms Jake Brereton: The Essential Components of a Business Model https://inventwithnokia.nokia.com/inventors Chesbrough, H. (2007). Business model innovation: it's not just about technology anymore. Strategy & leadership, 35(6), 12-17. Teece, David. (2010). Business Models, Business Strategy and Innovation. Long Range Planning. 43. 172-194. 10.1016/j.lrp.2009.07.003. Amit, R. and Zott, C. (2001) Value Creation in E-Business. Strategic Management Journal, 22, 493-520. Massa, L., Tucci, C. L., & Afuah, A. (2017). A critical assessment of business model research. Academy of Management annals, 11(1), 73-104. What is a Business Model What kind of solution do you offer? Create Value Value Creation What do you want to do? How do you do it? How do you Opportunity Deliver Value Value Proposition achieve value to the customer? How do you get compensated for Capture Value Revenue Model what you do? How to make money? Attributes Description of Attributes Indicators Agreement by different persons on basic attributes of Clear target market, clear “core” customers Clarity the product/service vs. several possible customer groups Better, greater features, improved Superiority of How innovative your own product offering is relative functioning, faster, does more, different product/service to the competitors application, new technology, radical newness, unique product Small number of big competitors; or big Number of direct competitors you will have that number of smaller competitors Number of competitors target the same market What do they do? How is it different from what I am doing? Large market, mass market, untapped market, The current size of the market/How strongly the meet needs, long-term demand, life Market Size customers desire the products/services (solving improved, customers want it, unmet need, customers problems) nice-to-have product vs. must-have product Market Growth Expected annual growth of the market Emerging market structure, market maturity Number of potential and direct competitors you will Big player, #1 seller, dominate, easy market Level of Competition have that target the same market entry, few competitors Profitable, high margins, quick cash, short Financial Viability Positive net cash flow time to market, cash burn rate How manageable your risks are; How clear the risks Product risk, liability of the product, industry Risk are change, legal risks, etc. Experience, gut feeling, it will work, very Intuition Subjective assessment of the opportunity logical  Business Model Canvas “Inputs & Internal” “Outputs & External” Infrastructure 8. Key 6. Key 2. Value 4. Customer 1. Key 6. Key activities: most important activities in executing value Partners Activities Proposition Relationships Customers proposition Who will help How do you do it? Which problem do How do you signal Whom do you you? you solve for your changes? help/add value? 7. Key resources: resources necessary to create value for customer. 7. Key customers? 5. Distribution Assets that are needed to sustain and support the business. (Could be Resources Channels Which resources human, financial, physical and intellectual) do you need? How do you reach your customers? 8. Partner network: buyer-supplier relationships, so company can focus 9. Cost Model 3. Revenue Model on core activity What are your biggest costs? What do you make money from? Offering 2. Value propositions: Products and services business offers to meet customer needs. Value proposition distinguishes company from competitors (Value propositions may be: Quantitative – price and Finances efficiency or Qualitative –customer experience and superior outcome) 9. Cost structure: Monetary consequences while operating Costumers (Cost-driven/Value driven). Includes fixed costs, variable costs 1. Segments: which customers does company serve? Can be segmented 3. Revenue streams: Way company makes income from each based on different needs and attributes (Mass market/Niche customer (asset sale/usage market/Segmented) fee/subscription/leasing/licensing/advertising) 5. Channels: way to deliver value proposition to targeted customers 4. Customer relationships: identify type of relationship with customers. (including how to get new costumers and retain current ones) Osterwalder, Alexander; Pigneur, Yves; Clark, Tim (2010). Business Model Generation: A Handbook For Visionaries, Game Changers, and Challengers Rosenbauer: Firefighting Headquarter: Rosenbauer is the world’s Leonding, Austria leading manufacturer of systems for firefighting and disaster protection. Employees: 4,130 Countries: 120 → Goal: Design a New Firetruck  New Firetruck Which capabilities should new fire trucks have? Which Megatrends to address? ▪ Connectivity, Importance of ▪ Globalization Communication and ▪ Knowledge culture Digitization ▪ Mobility Importance of environmental ▪ New ecology protection, traffic and safety ▪ Urbanization ▪ Silver society, Importance of ergonomics ▪ Gender shift ▪ Individualiz-ation and rapid deployment Potential answers Negative Capabilities/Solutions → Positive Capabilities/Solutions Triangle wheels that slow down New kind of tires that makes you drive more fast Faulty GPS AI based driving support Fitting only 1 person in the car Have a in on top of each other Udouble decker solution so more people fit se some kind of Not use water chemicals that take water from the air Having no space in the car Use some automatic/drone solutions What Rosenbauer did ▪ Connectivity, Importance of ▪ Globalization Communication ▪ Knowledge and Digitization culture Remote mission control Rotatable Command Seat Digital assistance system Importance of ▪ Mobility environmental ▪ New ecology protection, traffic ▪ Urbanization and safety Narrow Turning circle Electric engine Water gun automatic target 2,6 cm distance to cabin Large storage, hydraulic ramp identification Innovation Perspective of the producer Low newness High newness Incremental Technological Low newness innovation Innovation Perspective of the user Application Radical High newness Innovation Innovation Water gun with automatic target identification  Threat vs Opportunity: AI example:12 million workers will be “replaced” by 2030 due to AI and automatization Mainly: costumer service; office support; & food services AI is predicted to generate 69 million new roles Mainly: Data Analysts, AI and Machine Learning Specialists, Digital Transformation Specialists,… New Roles: Prompt Enginers, AI auditors, human-machine interaction designers, AI ethicists,… McKinsey Global Institute Report on the Future of Work by the World Economic Forum (WEF)