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Questions and Answers
What significant trend has been observed in the sales of diapers in Japan since 2011?
What significant trend has been observed in the sales of diapers in Japan since 2011?
By what percentage is the diaper market expected to grow by 2045?
By what percentage is the diaper market expected to grow by 2045?
Which of the following is NOT listed as a megatrend that can affect business models?
Which of the following is NOT listed as a megatrend that can affect business models?
What does a business model primarily define?
What does a business model primarily define?
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What potential environmental issue arises from the projected increase in diaper sales?
What potential environmental issue arises from the projected increase in diaper sales?
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Which component is NOT included in the design of value creation in a business model?
Which component is NOT included in the design of value creation in a business model?
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Which megatrend relates to the aging population and necessitates new business opportunities?
Which megatrend relates to the aging population and necessitates new business opportunities?
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What is a critical factor in understanding the business model as it relates to transactions?
What is a critical factor in understanding the business model as it relates to transactions?
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What characterizes a Megatrend?
What characterizes a Megatrend?
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Who is credited with coining the term Megatrends?
Who is credited with coining the term Megatrends?
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Which decade's cultural values did Naisbitt believe would influence future Megatrends?
Which decade's cultural values did Naisbitt believe would influence future Megatrends?
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What is NOT a characteristic of Megatrends?
What is NOT a characteristic of Megatrends?
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What type of perspective do Megatrends encourage, according to Naisbitt?
What type of perspective do Megatrends encourage, according to Naisbitt?
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What is a defining feature of Scenario Analyses?
What is a defining feature of Scenario Analyses?
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Which social movements did Naisbitt associate with Megatrends?
Which social movements did Naisbitt associate with Megatrends?
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How were Megatrends viewed regarding their outcomes?
How were Megatrends viewed regarding their outcomes?
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What is meant by the value proposition in a business model?
What is meant by the value proposition in a business model?
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Which of the following best describes an attribute of clarity in a business model?
Which of the following best describes an attribute of clarity in a business model?
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How does the concept of superiority relate to a business model's product or service?
How does the concept of superiority relate to a business model's product or service?
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What does the revenue model in a business indicate?
What does the revenue model in a business indicate?
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What characterizes a market size in the context of a business model?
What characterizes a market size in the context of a business model?
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Which factor indicates the number of competitors targeting the same market?
Which factor indicates the number of competitors targeting the same market?
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What does better features in a business model highlight?
What does better features in a business model highlight?
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Which best describes the opportunity aspect of a business model?
Which best describes the opportunity aspect of a business model?
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What role does a partner network play in a business model?
What role does a partner network play in a business model?
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Which of the following best describes a value proposition?
Which of the following best describes a value proposition?
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What is meant by 'revenue streams' in a business model?
What is meant by 'revenue streams' in a business model?
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Which of the following is NOT considered a type of customer segment?
Which of the following is NOT considered a type of customer segment?
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What is typically included in the cost structure of a business?
What is typically included in the cost structure of a business?
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How can a company effectively deliver its value proposition?
How can a company effectively deliver its value proposition?
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What type of customer relationship focuses on acquiring new customers?
What type of customer relationship focuses on acquiring new customers?
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Which of the following resources is NOT typically considered among human, financial, physical, and intellectual resources?
Which of the following resources is NOT typically considered among human, financial, physical, and intellectual resources?
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What is the primary goal of scenario analysis in strategic planning?
What is the primary goal of scenario analysis in strategic planning?
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Which characteristic of scenario analysis relates to the unpredictability of future events?
Which characteristic of scenario analysis relates to the unpredictability of future events?
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Which tool is often combined with scenario analysis to evaluate the likelihood of different outcomes?
Which tool is often combined with scenario analysis to evaluate the likelihood of different outcomes?
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What type of research deals with understanding processes of social change over time?
What type of research deals with understanding processes of social change over time?
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Which of the following is NOT one of the 12 megatrends identified?
Which of the following is NOT one of the 12 megatrends identified?
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What does the term 'New Work' primarily encompass?
What does the term 'New Work' primarily encompass?
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Which megatrend focuses on enhancing health through technology and lifestyle?
Which megatrend focuses on enhancing health through technology and lifestyle?
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What major demographic challenge is Japan facing according to the example provided?
What major demographic challenge is Japan facing according to the example provided?
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Which megatrend includes the concept of 'Plant Based' diets?
Which megatrend includes the concept of 'Plant Based' diets?
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Which of the following statements about scenarios is accurate?
Which of the following statements about scenarios is accurate?
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Which element is part of the process for developing scenarios?
Which element is part of the process for developing scenarios?
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What does 'sharing economy' refer to within the context of megatrends?
What does 'sharing economy' refer to within the context of megatrends?
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Which of the following concepts is associated with the 'Security' megatrend?
Which of the following concepts is associated with the 'Security' megatrend?
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Which of the following megatrends should be addressed when designing a new firetruck?
Which of the following megatrends should be addressed when designing a new firetruck?
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What is a proposed positive capability for the new firetruck regarding the use of water?
What is a proposed positive capability for the new firetruck regarding the use of water?
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In the context of innovation, which term describes a high newness incremental innovation?
In the context of innovation, which term describes a high newness incremental innovation?
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Which of the following statements about AI's impact on the workforce is true?
Which of the following statements about AI's impact on the workforce is true?
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What is one of the roles that may emerge due to AI advancements?
What is one of the roles that may emerge due to AI advancements?
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Which capability is associated with the importance of mobility in new firetruck design?
Which capability is associated with the importance of mobility in new firetruck design?
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What does the term 'silver society' reference in the context of firetruck design?
What does the term 'silver society' reference in the context of firetruck design?
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Which negative capability is NOT mentioned as a potential issue in new firetruck design?
Which negative capability is NOT mentioned as a potential issue in new firetruck design?
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How many employees does Rosenbauer have globally?
How many employees does Rosenbauer have globally?
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What is an essential component of the new digital assistance system for firetrucks?
What is an essential component of the new digital assistance system for firetrucks?
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Study Notes
Megatrends
- Megatrends are significant, long-term trends that shape the future and influence businesses.
- They are not surprising and develop slowly, derived from past developments.
- They are more certain because of consistent, slow development.
- They are long-term and influence diverse aspects of life.
- They pose both opportunities and threats, dependent on how they are handled.
- They are highly likely to affect businesses.
History of Megatrends
- John Naisbitt is considered the "father" of the term Megatrends.
- He believed the values of the 1960s counterculture (individualism, spiritualism, feminism) would drive the country toward economic and cultural prosperity.
- Naisbitt linked these 1960s values to the deregulation and free market mindset of the Reagan era.
- His work emphasizes optimism and excitement about the future, instead of seeing crises.
Megatrends: Threats vs. Opportunities
- Megatrends can present both threats and opportunities for businesses.
- The example of the transition from horse-drawn plows to tractors illustrates how a transformation can cause hardship for businesses that rely on the earlier method but generates opportunities for those implementing new technology.
Scenario Analyses
- Scenarios are detailed descriptions of potential futures, presented narratively.
- Scenarios aim to define possible futures, not to predict the exact future.
- Scenarios provide a framework to analyze and understand uncertainty. This framework helps to scan, encode, understand and adapt to the future as it unfolds.
Scenario Analyses: Method
- A strategic planning method for developing flexible long-term plans.
- Projections are based on various assumptions about future developments.
Scenario Analysis: Decision Tree
- A decision tree method combined with Scenario Analysis helps to evaluate the likelihood of scenarios and consequently pick the best course of action.
Road Map: Scenario Construction
- Creating a roadmap for constructing scenarios involves defining the issue (including timeframe, scope, and decision variables).
- The next step is identifying stakeholders and understanding the megatrends that affect the issue.
- Key uncertainties regarding the issue must be identified.
- The roadmap includes creating positive and negative case scenarios ("best" and "worst" scenarios).
- Scenario plausibility and likelihood evaluation to remove unreasonable combinations is important.
Trend Research
- The process of understanding social change.
- Often part of market research.
- Trend Scouting/Spotting is a tool for identifying new trends.
- Delphi Method includes surveying experts in a field to get their input.
- Demographic predictions are based on demographic information.
- Futurologists are individuals who systematically analyze and predict future developments.
12 Megatrends
- A list of 12 megatrend categories. The listed megatrends are: Mobility, Health, Connectivity, Globalization, Neo-ecology, Security, Knowledge Culture, Gender Shift, Individualization, New Work, Urbanization, Silver Society.
Megatrend: Mobility
- 15-minute city concept
- 24/7 society
- Car sharing
- Dash delivery
- E-mobility
- Global migration
- Modern nomadism
- Transportation Network Companies (TNCs)
Megatrend: Health
- Corporate health
- Digital health
- Downaging
- Immune boosting
- Quality of life
- Plant-Based
- Preventive Health
- Self-optimization
- Self-tracking
Megatrend: Connectivity
- Augmented Reality
- Big Data
- Blockchain
- Digital Health
- Digital Reputation
- Internet of Things (IoT)
- Artificial intelligence
- Predictive Analytics
- Platform economy
- Sharing Economy
- Social Networks
Megatrend: Globalization
- Population Growth
- Dependability
- Generation Global
- Global Protest Culture
- Global Migration
- Glocalization
- Modern Nomadism
- Neo-Nationalism
- Neo-Tribes
Megatrend: Security
- Blockchain
- Cybercrime
- Basic Income
- Predictive Analytics
- Privacy
- Resilience
- Super-safe Society
- Transparency
Megatrend: Neo-Ecology
- Beyond Plastic
- Circular Economy
- Decarbonization
- Global Protest Culture
- Green Pressure
- Green Tech
- Minimalism
- Plant-based
- Regionalization
- Sharing Economy
- Meaning Economy
- Social business
- Zero waste
Megatrend: Knowledge Culture
- Fake News
- Education Business
- Edutainment
- Collaboration
- Lifelong Learning
- Open Innovation
- Open Knowledge
Megatrend: Gender Shift
- Casual Feminism
- Diversity
- Fem-Tech
- Gender Awareness
- Gender Mainstreaming
- Identity Design
- LGBT+
- Post-Gender Marketing
Megatrend: Individualization
- Diversity
- Identity Design
- Quality of Life
- Neo-Tribes
- Self Care
- Single Society
- Social Cocooning
- Ungendered Lifestyle
Megatrend: New Work
- Co-Working
- Corporate Health
- Gig Economy
- Human Relations
- Open Innovation
- Open Knowledge
- Remote Work
- Start-up Culture
- Work-Life Blending
Megatrend: Urbanization
- 15-minute City
- Co-Living
- Megacities
- Micro Housing
- Third Places
- Urban Farming
- Urban manufacturing
Megatrend: Silver Society
- Digital Health
- Downaging
- Lifelong Learning
- Liquid Youth
- Preventive Health
- Pro Aging
- Un-retirement
Business Model
- A business model is a system of activities that determine how a company operates.
- A business model has content, structure, and governance.
- Business models are designed to capture mechanisms for value creation, delivery, and capture.
- Business models have attributes like Clarity, Superiority, Competition, Market Size, Market Growth, Level of Competition, Financial Viability, Risk, and Intuition.
Rosenbauer: Firefighting
- Rosenbauer is a global manufacturer of firefighting systems and disaster protection equipment.
- They have 4,130 employees and operate in 120 countries.
- Their major goal is to create a new generation of firetrucks.
- Specifics were outlined with details like an example of using more environmentally friendly materials and technologies.
New Firetruck Capabilities
- Connectivity and Digitization
- Environmental protection and traffic safety
- Ergonomics and quick deployment
Potential Answers (Firetruck design solutions).
- Positive capabilities: New tire design, Al based driver assistance, double-decker design, chemicals to extract water from the air, drone based water delivery methods.
- Negative capabilities: Existing weaknesses in present models like bad wheel designs.
What Rosenbauer Did
- Specific examples to implement connectivity.
- Examples to implement improved mobility (e.g. electric engines).
- Examples to show how to use technology more efficiently (e.g. digital assistance).
Innovation
- Innovation is categorized based on the newness of both the user's and the company's perspective.
- The types of innovations described are incremental, application, technological, and radical innovations.
Threat vs Opportunity: Al
- Automation from Artificial intelligence (AI) is expected to cause the replacement of many workers.
- However, AI is also foreseen to create many new roles, like data analysts and machine learning specialists.
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Description
Test your knowledge on the important shifts in business models influenced by megatrends such as the aging population and environmental issues. This quiz covers key concepts and statistics related to diaper sales and broader business implications. Engage with questions that challenge your understanding of business dynamics in today's changing landscape.
