Business Models and Megatrends Quiz
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Questions and Answers

What significant trend has been observed in the sales of diapers in Japan since 2011?

  • Sales of baby diapers have remained stable.
  • Sales of both adult and baby diapers have decreased.
  • Sales of baby diapers have increased significantly.
  • Sales of adult diapers have surpassed sales of baby diapers. (correct)

By what percentage is the diaper market expected to grow by 2045?

  • 10%
  • 25%
  • 75%
  • 50% (correct)

Which of the following is NOT listed as a megatrend that can affect business models?

  • Neo-ecology
  • Urbanization
  • Television (correct)
  • Globalization

What does a business model primarily define?

<p>The system of activities for creating value. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What potential environmental issue arises from the projected increase in diaper sales?

<p>Increased waste generation from diapers (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which component is NOT included in the design of value creation in a business model?

<p>Distribution (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which megatrend relates to the aging population and necessitates new business opportunities?

<p>Health (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is a critical factor in understanding the business model as it relates to transactions?

<p>Exploitation of business opportunities (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What characterizes a Megatrend?

<p>They are derived from past developments. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Who is credited with coining the term Megatrends?

<p>John Naisbitt (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which decade's cultural values did Naisbitt believe would influence future Megatrends?

<p>1960s (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is NOT a characteristic of Megatrends?

<p>They are always tied to immediate crises. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What type of perspective do Megatrends encourage, according to Naisbitt?

<p>Optimism and excitement about the future. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is a defining feature of Scenario Analyses?

<p>They describe fundamentally different futures. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which social movements did Naisbitt associate with Megatrends?

<p>Individualism and spiritualism. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

How were Megatrends viewed regarding their outcomes?

<p>They present both opportunities and threats. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is meant by the value proposition in a business model?

<p>The unique solution offered to customers (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following best describes an attribute of clarity in a business model?

<p>Focusing on a specific target market and core customers (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

How does the concept of superiority relate to a business model's product or service?

<p>It shows how innovative the offering is compared to competitors. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does the revenue model in a business indicate?

<p>How the business plans to make money (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What characterizes a market size in the context of a business model?

<p>The potential demand and current size of the market (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which factor indicates the number of competitors targeting the same market?

<p>The competitive landscape in the market (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does better features in a business model highlight?

<p>Improvement in the functionality and technology of offerings (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which best describes the opportunity aspect of a business model?

<p>Identifying customer problems that the business can solve (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What role does a partner network play in a business model?

<p>It helps focus on core activities. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following best describes a value proposition?

<p>The products and services offered to meet customer needs. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is meant by 'revenue streams' in a business model?

<p>The way a company makes money from its customers. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following is NOT considered a type of customer segment?

<p>Target market (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is typically included in the cost structure of a business?

<p>Fixed and variable costs of operation (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

How can a company effectively deliver its value proposition?

<p>Through well-defined channels. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What type of customer relationship focuses on acquiring new customers?

<p>Transactional (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following resources is NOT typically considered among human, financial, physical, and intellectual resources?

<p>Social resources (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the primary goal of scenario analysis in strategic planning?

<p>To make flexible long-term plans based on different assumptions (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which characteristic of scenario analysis relates to the unpredictability of future events?

<p>Uncertainty (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which tool is often combined with scenario analysis to evaluate the likelihood of different outcomes?

<p>Decision Tree (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What type of research deals with understanding processes of social change over time?

<p>Trend Research (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following is NOT one of the 12 megatrends identified?

<p>Decentralization (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does the term 'New Work' primarily encompass?

<p>Remote work and gig economy (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which megatrend focuses on enhancing health through technology and lifestyle?

<p>Health (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What major demographic challenge is Japan facing according to the example provided?

<p>A declining population with an increasing proportion of elderly (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which megatrend includes the concept of 'Plant Based' diets?

<p>Health (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following statements about scenarios is accurate?

<p>Scenarios can introduce multiple potential futures (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which element is part of the process for developing scenarios?

<p>Creating a diagnostic part based on the past (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does 'sharing economy' refer to within the context of megatrends?

<p>A model where individuals share access to goods and services (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following concepts is associated with the 'Security' megatrend?

<p>Cybercrime (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following megatrends should be addressed when designing a new firetruck?

<p>Globalization (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is a proposed positive capability for the new firetruck regarding the use of water?

<p>Incorporate chemicals that extract water from the air (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the context of innovation, which term describes a high newness incremental innovation?

<p>Application Innovation (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following statements about AI's impact on the workforce is true?

<p>AI is expected to create more roles than it replaces. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is one of the roles that may emerge due to AI advancements?

<p>AI Ethics Specialist (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which capability is associated with the importance of mobility in new firetruck design?

<p>Narrow turning circle (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does the term 'silver society' reference in the context of firetruck design?

<p>Addressing the needs of an aging population (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which negative capability is NOT mentioned as a potential issue in new firetruck design?

<p>Poor fuel efficiency (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

How many employees does Rosenbauer have globally?

<p>4,130 (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is an essential component of the new digital assistance system for firetrucks?

<p>Remote mission control (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Flashcards

What is a Megatrend?

A powerful and long-term trend that fundamentally shapes various aspects of society, economy, and culture.

How are Megatrends different from normal trends?

They are anticipated changes that stem from current developments, making them relatively predictable in contrast to sudden, unpredictable events.

What are some characteristics of Megatrends?

Megatrends are rooted in historical progressions, signifying their potential to continue over a long period and transform different parts of life (politics, technology, economy, social).

What is the significance of understanding Megatrends?

Megatrends provide an opportunity to proactively prepare for potential challenges and capitalize on emerging opportunities. They are not simply threats but present both benefits and risks.

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Who is considered the 'Father' of Megatrends?

John Naisbitt, who popularized the term 'Megatrends' in the 1980s, believed that societal and cultural changes like individualism, spiritualism, and feminism would drive significant economic and cultural shifts.

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What are Scenario Analyses?

Scenarios are narratives depicting different plausible futures, helping understand potential outcomes and making informed decisions.

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What is the purpose of Scenario Analyses?

Scenarios offer a framework for exploring various possible futures and navigating uncertainty by providing different narratives for decision-making.

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How did John Naisbitt connect the 1960s counterculture and the Reagan era?

John Naisbitt, a prominent figure in the Megatrends movement, argued that a combination of the 1960s counterculture ideals and the deregulation of the Reagan era led to a shift towards individualism and economic growth.

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What is the diaper market trend in Japan?

The shift in Japan's demographics, with a declining birth rate and an increasing elderly population, is leading to a significant increase in the demand for adult diapers. This trend is expected to continue, resulting in a larger market for these products.

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What business opportunity does Japan's demographic shift present?

The rise in demand for diaper products in a shifting demographic context presents a significant business opportunity for manufacturers, suppliers, and retailers. The increasing demand for adult diapers in Japan signifies a lucrative market for these products.

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What are Megatrends?

Megatrends are large-scale, long-term forces that shape economies, societies, and cultures. They are impactful and persistent trends that influence various aspects of life, leading to significant societal shifts.

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How does 'Silver Society' relate to Megatrends?

The Silver Society Megatrend describes a society that is experiencing a growing proportion of elderly people. It is characterized by an aging population and focuses on meeting the needs of older individuals.

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What is a Business Model?

A business model outlines the core components of a company's operations, including value creation, value delivery, and value capture. It explains how a business interacts with its customers, generates revenue, and achieves its strategic goals.

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How does the Megatrend 'New Work' affect businesses?

New Work Megatrend refers to changes in the way people work, including remote work, flexible schedules, and work-life balance. It encompasses the evolving nature of work and the rise of new work models.

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How does the Health Megatrend impact business?

The Health Megatrend focuses on the growing demand for healthcare services, wellness products, and technologies related to health and well-being. It encompasses the increasing emphasis on health, fitness, and preventive healthcare.

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How does the Security Megatrend affect businesses?

The Security Megatrend emphasizes concerns around personal security, data security, and societal safety. It encompasses the growing need for measures to protect individuals, organizations, and nations from threats.

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What is Value Creation?

Value creation refers to the process of designing and developing products or services that meet customer needs and provide value to them.

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What is the Value Proposition?

This defines how a company communicates the value of its products or services to its target customers.

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How does a company Deliver Value?

This describes how a company delivers its value proposition to its customers, including the channels used to reach them.

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What is the Revenue Model?

It outlines how a company generates revenue from its products or services.

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What is Clarity in a Business Model?

Clarity in a business model refers to a clear understanding of the target market, customer needs, and the company's core competencies.

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What is Superiority of Product/Service?

This refers to the degree of innovation and differentiation a company's products or services offer compared to its competitors.

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Scenario Analysis

A strategic planning method used to make flexible long-term plans that project into the future development based on different assumptions.

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What is the Number of Competitors?

This refers to the number of direct competitors targeting the same market as your company.

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Uncertainty

Uncertainty refers to the degree to which the causes of effects are unknown. It explores multiple futures without aiming to predict them.

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Complexity

Complexity represents the interconnectedness of variables in a system. It acknowledges the interplay of technological, social, political, economic, and cultural factors.

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Decision Tree

A tool for decision-making based on different assumptions. The goal is to choose the optimal plan based on scenario likelihoods. It can be combined with Scenario Analysis to evaluate the probability of different situations.

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Trend Research

Trend research deals with the processes of social change. It aims to understand long-term and slow-moving trends, examining both the past and future.

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Delphi Method

A method used in trend research that involves surveying a group of experts in a specific field to gather insights and predictions.

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Trend Scouting/Spotting

Trend Scouting/Spotting refers to the identification of emerging trends that impact various areas of life. It plays a crucial role in trend research.

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Megatrend

A megatrend is a long-term and transformative trend that shapes various aspects of society. It has a broad impact and influences multiple areas of life.

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15-minute city

A 15-minute city is a concept where essential amenities like work, shopping, and leisure are within a 15-minute walk or bike ride from any point within the city.

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24/7 society

A 24/7 society is a culture where people's lives are increasingly integrated with work and activities around the clock, regardless of traditional time boundaries.

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Car sharing

Car sharing refers to the concept of using a shared vehicle for transportation as needed, rather than owning a personal car.

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Dash Delivery

Dash Delivery is a fast, convenient, and often on-demand delivery service that focuses on delivering goods quickly to customers.

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E-mobility

E-mobility encompasses the use of electric vehicles for transportation, including electric cars, motorcycles, and bicycles.

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Global Migration

Global Migration refers to the movement of people from one country to another, often driven by factors like economic opportunities or seeking a better life.

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Modern Nomadism

Modern Nomadism describes people who live a more mobile lifestyle, often working remotely and traveling frequently, embracing a less traditional way of life.

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Value Proposition

The unique value a business offers to customers, making it stand out from competitors. This can be based on price, quality, features, or customer experience.

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Customer Segments

The different groups of customers that a business targets. Businesses can segment customers based on factors like age, income, lifestyle, or needs.

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Channels

The ways a business delivers its value proposition to its target customers. This can include online channels, physical stores, advertising, or customer service.

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Customer Relationships

The type of relationship a business builds with its customers. This can range from transactional (one-time purchase) to long-term partnerships. Building relationships can help businesses retain customers and grow.

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Revenue Streams

The way a business makes money from each customer. Examples include selling products, subscriptions, usage fees, or advertising.

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Cost Structure

The costs involved in running a business. This includes fixed costs (like rent or salaries) and variable costs (like materials or production expenses).

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Partner Network

The relationships a business has with other organizations, such as suppliers, distributors, or partners. Partners can help a business focus on its core activities and expand its reach.

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What is Radical Innovation?

A new product or service that significantly improves upon existing offerings, often introducing disruptive changes to an industry.

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What is Incremental Innovation?

A new product or service that introduces minor improvements to existing offerings.

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What is the Innovation Box?

Companies that successfully implement innovation strategies often use various frameworks. One such framework is the 'Innovation Box.' What does the innovation box represent?

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How is Innovation viewed from the Producer's Perspective?

Rosenbauer, a leading firetruck manufacturer, used the Innovation Box to analyze their new product. What is the 'Perspective of the Producer' in the Innovation Box?

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How is Innovation viewed from the User's Perspective?

The 'Perspective of the User' in the Innovation Box focuses on how the user perceives the innovation. What are the two primary categories of innovation based on the user's perspective?

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How does 'Connectivity' impact Firetrucks?

A key megatrend that is influencing the design of firetrucks is 'Connectivity'. How does 'Connectivity' impact firetruck design?

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How does 'Urbanization' impact Firetrucks?

Another megatrend crucial for firetruck design is 'Urbanization'. Why is 'Urbanization' significant?

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Why is the 'Rotatable Command Seat' important?

Rosenbauer's new firetruck design incorporates a 'Rotatable Command Seat'. What is the main purpose of this feature?

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How does AI affect Jobs?

AI is expected to significantly impact the workforce in the coming years. How can it affect various roles?

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What are some New Roles due to AI?

AI is predicted to generate both job losses and creation. While some roles are expected to be replaced, new opportunities emerge. What are some of the new roles that might arise due to AI?

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Study Notes

Megatrends

  • Megatrends are significant, long-term trends that shape the future and influence businesses.
  • They are not surprising and develop slowly, derived from past developments.
  • They are more certain because of consistent, slow development.
  • They are long-term and influence diverse aspects of life.
  • They pose both opportunities and threats, dependent on how they are handled.
  • They are highly likely to affect businesses.

History of Megatrends

  • John Naisbitt is considered the "father" of the term Megatrends.
  • He believed the values of the 1960s counterculture (individualism, spiritualism, feminism) would drive the country toward economic and cultural prosperity.
  • Naisbitt linked these 1960s values to the deregulation and free market mindset of the Reagan era.
  • His work emphasizes optimism and excitement about the future, instead of seeing crises.

Megatrends: Threats vs. Opportunities

  • Megatrends can present both threats and opportunities for businesses.
  • The example of the transition from horse-drawn plows to tractors illustrates how a transformation can cause hardship for businesses that rely on the earlier method but generates opportunities for those implementing new technology.

Scenario Analyses

  • Scenarios are detailed descriptions of potential futures, presented narratively.
  • Scenarios aim to define possible futures, not to predict the exact future.
  • Scenarios provide a framework to analyze and understand uncertainty. This framework helps to scan, encode, understand and adapt to the future as it unfolds.

Scenario Analyses: Method

  • A strategic planning method for developing flexible long-term plans.
  • Projections are based on various assumptions about future developments.

Scenario Analysis: Decision Tree

  • A decision tree method combined with Scenario Analysis helps to evaluate the likelihood of scenarios and consequently pick the best course of action.

Road Map: Scenario Construction

  • Creating a roadmap for constructing scenarios involves defining the issue (including timeframe, scope, and decision variables).
  • The next step is identifying stakeholders and understanding the megatrends that affect the issue.
  • Key uncertainties regarding the issue must be identified.
  • The roadmap includes creating positive and negative case scenarios ("best" and "worst" scenarios).
  • Scenario plausibility and likelihood evaluation to remove unreasonable combinations is important.

Trend Research

  • The process of understanding social change.
  • Often part of market research.
  • Trend Scouting/Spotting is a tool for identifying new trends.
  • Delphi Method includes surveying experts in a field to get their input.
  • Demographic predictions are based on demographic information.
  • Futurologists are individuals who systematically analyze and predict future developments.

12 Megatrends

  • A list of 12 megatrend categories. The listed megatrends are: Mobility, Health, Connectivity, Globalization, Neo-ecology, Security, Knowledge Culture, Gender Shift, Individualization, New Work, Urbanization, Silver Society.

Megatrend: Mobility

  • 15-minute city concept
  • 24/7 society
  • Car sharing
  • Dash delivery
  • E-mobility
  • Global migration
  • Modern nomadism
  • Transportation Network Companies (TNCs)

Megatrend: Health

  • Corporate health
  • Digital health
  • Downaging
  • Immune boosting
  • Quality of life
  • Plant-Based
  • Preventive Health
  • Self-optimization
  • Self-tracking

Megatrend: Connectivity

  • Augmented Reality
  • Big Data
  • Blockchain
  • Digital Health
  • Digital Reputation
  • Internet of Things (IoT)
  • Artificial intelligence
  • Predictive Analytics
  • Platform economy
  • Sharing Economy
  • Social Networks

Megatrend: Globalization

  • Population Growth
  • Dependability
  • Generation Global
  • Global Protest Culture
  • Global Migration
  • Glocalization
  • Modern Nomadism
  • Neo-Nationalism
  • Neo-Tribes

Megatrend: Security

  • Blockchain
  • Cybercrime
  • Basic Income
  • Predictive Analytics
  • Privacy
  • Resilience
  • Super-safe Society
  • Transparency

Megatrend: Neo-Ecology

  • Beyond Plastic
  • Circular Economy
  • Decarbonization
  • Global Protest Culture
  • Green Pressure
  • Green Tech
  • Minimalism
  • Plant-based
  • Regionalization
  • Sharing Economy
  • Meaning Economy
  • Social business
  • Zero waste

Megatrend: Knowledge Culture

  • Fake News
  • Education Business
  • Edutainment
  • Collaboration
  • Lifelong Learning
  • Open Innovation
  • Open Knowledge

Megatrend: Gender Shift

  • Casual Feminism
  • Diversity
  • Fem-Tech
  • Gender Awareness
  • Gender Mainstreaming
  • Identity Design
  • LGBT+
  • Post-Gender Marketing

Megatrend: Individualization

  • Diversity
  • Identity Design
  • Quality of Life
  • Neo-Tribes
  • Self Care
  • Single Society
  • Social Cocooning
  • Ungendered Lifestyle

Megatrend: New Work

  • Co-Working
  • Corporate Health
  • Gig Economy
  • Human Relations
  • Open Innovation
  • Open Knowledge
  • Remote Work
  • Start-up Culture
  • Work-Life Blending

Megatrend: Urbanization

  • 15-minute City
  • Co-Living
  • Megacities
  • Micro Housing
  • Third Places
  • Urban Farming
  • Urban manufacturing

Megatrend: Silver Society

  • Digital Health
  • Downaging
  • Lifelong Learning
  • Liquid Youth
  • Preventive Health
  • Pro Aging
  • Un-retirement

Business Model

  • A business model is a system of activities that determine how a company operates.
  • A business model has content, structure, and governance.
  • Business models are designed to capture mechanisms for value creation, delivery, and capture.
  • Business models have attributes like Clarity, Superiority, Competition, Market Size, Market Growth, Level of Competition, Financial Viability, Risk, and Intuition.

Rosenbauer: Firefighting

  • Rosenbauer is a global manufacturer of firefighting systems and disaster protection equipment.
  • They have 4,130 employees and operate in 120 countries.
  • Their major goal is to create a new generation of firetrucks.
  • Specifics were outlined with details like an example of using more environmentally friendly materials and technologies.

New Firetruck Capabilities

  • Connectivity and Digitization
  • Environmental protection and traffic safety
  • Ergonomics and quick deployment

Potential Answers (Firetruck design solutions).

  • Positive capabilities: New tire design, Al based driver assistance, double-decker design, chemicals to extract water from the air, drone based water delivery methods.
  • Negative capabilities: Existing weaknesses in present models like bad wheel designs.

What Rosenbauer Did

  • Specific examples to implement connectivity.
  • Examples to implement improved mobility (e.g. electric engines).
  • Examples to show how to use technology more efficiently (e.g. digital assistance).

Innovation

  • Innovation is categorized based on the newness of both the user's and the company's perspective.
  • The types of innovations described are incremental, application, technological, and radical innovations.

Threat vs Opportunity: Al

  • Automation from Artificial intelligence (AI) is expected to cause the replacement of many workers.
  • However, AI is also foreseen to create many new roles, like data analysts and machine learning specialists.

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Description

Test your knowledge on the important shifts in business models influenced by megatrends such as the aging population and environmental issues. This quiz covers key concepts and statistics related to diaper sales and broader business implications. Engage with questions that challenge your understanding of business dynamics in today's changing landscape.

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