How to Read Hands at No-Limit Hold'em

NOTICE This document is protected by United States copyright law. You may not reproduce, distribute, transmit, publish, or broadcast any part of it without the prior written permission of the author. How To Read Hands At No-Limit Hold’em Ed Miller Copyright © 2011 by Ed Miller ALL RIGHTS RESER...

NOTICE This document is protected by United States copyright law. You may not reproduce, distribute, transmit, publish, or broadcast any part of it without the prior written permission of the author. How To Read Hands At No-Limit Hold’em Ed Miller Copyright © 2011 by Ed Miller ALL RIGHTS RESERVED No part of this document or the related files may be reproduced or transmitted in any form, by any means (electronic, photocopying, recording, or otherwise) without the prior written permission of the publisher. For information about permission to reproduce selections from this book, write to Ed Miller, 9850 South Maryland Parkway, Suite A-5, Box 210, Las Vegas, NV 89183, United States of America. www.notedpokerauthority.com ISBN-13: 978-0-9825042-2-2 ISBN-10: 0-9825042-2-5 Limit of Liability and Disclaimer of Warranty: The publisher has used its best efforts in preparing this book, and the information provided herein is provided "as is." The publisher makes no representation or warranties with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of this book and specifically disclaims any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for any particular purpose and shall in no event be liable for any loss of profit or any other commercial damage, including but not limited to special, incidental, consequential, or other damages. Trademarks: This book identifies product names and services known to be trademarks, registered trademarks, or service marks of their respective holders. They are used throughout this book in an editorial fashion only. In addition, terms suspected of being trademarks, registered trademarks, or service marks have been appropriately capitalized, although the publisher cannot attest to the accuracy of this information. Use of a term in this book should not be regarded as affecting the validity of any trademark, registered trademark, or service mark.  CONTENTS Contents 5 Introduction 6 Part I: Core Hand Reading 8 PLAYER TYPES 9 THE THREE PRINCIPLES OF HAND READING 12 HAND RANGES 15 HAND COMBINATIONS 21 PREFLOP HAND READING 23 HAND READING ON THE FLOP 33 HAND READING ON THE TURN 56 HAND READING ON THE RIVER 78 PART II: HAND READING VARIATIONS 88 WHEN YOUR OPPONENTS DON'T COOPERATE 89 WHEN DON'T THEY BET? 98 GETTING RAISED 107 DISCOUNTING HAND COMBOS 124 POLARIZED HAND RANGES 126 HAND READING IN MULTIWAY POTS 133 USING FLOPZILLA TO PERFECT YOUR HAND READING 138 PROFILING PLAYERS USING BAYESIAN INFERENCE 146 QUICK CONCEPTS AND KEY POINTS 159 PART III: HAND READING IN PRACTICE 166 HAND READING IN PRACTICE 167 Conclusion 188 Acknowledgements 189 INTRODUCTION Hand reading is the key to winning at no-limit hold'em. If you can read hands, you can win. If you can't, you'll struggle. This book will teach you the hand reading skills needed to beat live no-limit games up to $5-$10, small stakes online games, and nearly any home game you might play in. The techniques in this book are also very useful for the early stages of no-limit hold'em tournaments when the stacks are still deep enough that every hand isn't all-in preflop. A good hand reader who has mastered the concepts in this book should be able to clear $20 to $40 per hour in today's medium-level live games (i.e., $2-$5 or similar stakes). Hand reading is the art of deducing your opponents' hands based on the available information. Information is available everywhere, from the betting action to the time it takes your opponents to act to body language to what your opponents are wearing. While all this information can play into hand reading, the betting action contains the most valuable information, and that's the information we'll use the most as we work through the examples in this book. There's no magic or voodoo in this book. Poker players like to say things like, "Something just didn't feel right, and I could tell he didn't have it." None of that here. Some people do have a "feel" that is helpful to them—mine is average at best—but I won't try to teach you how to have accurate spidey sense. This book takes a practical, example-driven approach. You'll work through hands and use a logical, repeatable process to read your opponents' hands. You don't have to be clairvoyant to read hands. You just need to think clearly, and then you need practice, practice, practice. This book will give your hand reading a big jump start. PART I: CORE HAND READING  Player Types Different players play differently. Tell me something I don't know, right? Hand reading is obviously player-dependent. Even though no two players think and play exactly the same way, you can fairly categorize players into rough groups that are useful for hand reading. In this book we'll discuss hand reading against three specific player types: The Nit Nits are conservative. They are primarily driven by the fear of losing their stack. If you make a big bet and they have a hand they're not sure about, even if they suspect you of bluffing, nine times out of ten they will end up folding. Because of this, you gain more information from their calls than you would against other player types. In general, their calling hands will be relatively strong. Often after a call you can pin them down to one of just a few specific hands because they would have folded anything weaker and raised anything stronger. We'll discuss this in depth later. The Fish Fish is a generic term for a bad player. For the purpose of this book, a fish is someone primarily driven by the thrill of winning pots. Where nits are terrified of losing a big pot, losing doesn't worry the fish nearly as much. Instead, they are constantly seeking to make hands and win pots. Because of this, you gain much less information from their calls than you would against other player types. They call with all sorts of hands, hoping to get lucky. This aspect of playing against a fish frustrates many players, because it can feel like you're playing blind against them. "You play so many hands you could have anything" is something you'll hear grizzled veterans say from time to time to a fish. Nevertheless, hand reading is still extremely useful when playing against a fish. The Regular Regulars have been around the block. They don't play in constant fear, nor do they obsessively chase longshots. When used to describe an online medium stakes player, the term "regular" describes someone who is actually very, very good at no-limit hold'em. That's not who I'm talking about. Our regulars are the "solid" players who fill out $1-$2, $2-$5, and $5-$10 games in cardrooms. They're the "sharks" in most home games. They tend to play a predictable game that makes reading their hands fairly easy. They also make plenty of poor plays as a matter of habit, and they can be manipulated into making even worse plays. In short, regulars tend not to make many eye-poppingly stupid plays, but if you learn to read their hands well, you will have a big advantage over them. There's another important player type that I'm avoiding in this book: The Tough Player. Tough players read hands well and play an aggressive game designed to put pressure on you when they deduce that you are likely to have a weak hand. If you play online at the $1-$2 level and above, you'll encounter plenty of tough players. These guys already know what's in this book and are using it against you. You can use the principles in this book to read tough players' hands. But tough players know you're reading their hands and mix up their play to thwart you. Learning to spar with these players is beyond the scope of this book. Fortunately, very few genuinely tough players find their way into a cardroom to play small or medium stakes no-limit. When they do play live, they usually play $10-$20 and higher. More to the point, you can make a decent living for years playing this game in cardrooms around the world without ever really learning to get the best of the tough players. I'm not trying to turn every one of my readers into the next Tom Dwan. I'm focused on what you need to know to be a consistent winner in most no-limit games. That's ambitious enough, don't you think? In this book we'll use these player types as a shorthand to describe how your opponents make decisions and therefore how their actions define their hands.  The Three Principles Of Hand Reading Before we get into the nitty gritty of working through hand examples, I want to talk about three general principles of hand reading. It pays to keep these in mind as you proceed through the book and also as you play. Players play the way they do for a reason. It can be tempting to observe a particularly poor play and say, "Wow, that guy is just playing randomly," or "He must be a total idiot." No. Players play the way they do for a reason. As I alluded to in my player types descriptions, emotion plays a large role in how people make decisions. Nits are afraid. They experience negative emotions when they lose, and they make plays to keep the negative emotions away. But on top of this fear, nits have realized that their conservative style is a successful one in many games, and their tendency to make tight folds is reinforced by a track record of slow but steady winning. Fish are looking for the thrill of winning. They often know that they only have four outs, and it's not correct to call getting 3-to-1 to try to hit their hand. They know that Q3o is a bad hand. They're not calling with these hands because they think it's the correct or profitable play. They're calling because calling offers them the thrill of a gamble—and possibly of a big win. They also often relish being the underdog. There is always some method behind the madness. If you can figure it out, it will help your hand reading tremendously. Very few players bluff at the correct frequency. Most players don't bluff nearly enough, and a minority bluff way too much. Bluffing is in some ways the essence of poker. Without bluffing, the game would still likely be entertaining, but it wouldn't be nearly as complex and enjoyable. But most players don't incorporate bluffing well into their play. Nits and regulars tend not to bluff often enough. It's often through indifference. When they don't flop a good hand, they lose interest, and it doesn't even occur to them that bluffing might be a good play. And even when they do think of a good bluff, they often don't have the guts to pull the trigger. Some fish don't bluff enough either. Other fish bluff way too much. That thrill of winning pots turns into a thrill of stealing pots. Any time the opportunity seems to present itself, they're out there with a bet trying to pick up the pot. Anyone who bluffs with nearly the correct frequency is almost by definition a tough player. Good bluffing requires good hand reading and a willingness to make decisions based on the math and not on emotion. Information from large bets and calls is more reliable than information from small bets and calls. In a $2-$5 game, a $30 flop call can be a decent hand, a draw, a strong hand slowplaying, or a very weak hand. A $300 call is almost always a good hand. A player could raise a $30 bet with a variety of hands and draws, but anyone who raises a $300 bet means business. It's almost never a bluff. One of the tricks no-limit players like to use is to make a misleading play for small money to try to sucker you into making a mistake for big money. Don't be fooled. Big money talks in this game. Most players don't bluff often enough, and players bluff even less frequently when big money is involved. The bottom line is that as long as you are playing against one of our three player types, the larger the bet, the more you can trust that there's something behind it. These three principles provide a basis for reading most players' hands. If you keep them in mind, it will help you to build accurate pictures, especially in large pots when it matters most, of what your opponents might hold. I will refer back to these principles throughout the book.  Hand Ranges Hand ranges are the main tool of hand reading. Hand reading isn't about looking into your opponents' souls and divining the two exact cards they hold. It's a process of logical deductive reasoning. You start every hand knowing little about what your opponent could hold, and then as a hand unfolds, you get more information that will help you narrow down your opponents' possible holdings to just a few. A hand range is the list of plausible hands your opponent could hold based on the action thus far. Here's how it works. Let's try to read an opponent's hand using hand ranges. Of our three player types, he's a regular. It's a $1-$2 no-limit game, and he has a $200 stack. Again, we’d expect a regular in a small game like $1-$2 to have a sense of preflop hand values, but to make significant mistakes in many, many situations. First he's dealt two cards. At this point, his hand range looks like this: [xx] Throughout the book I'll be using this bracket notation to denote hand ranges. An 'x' means any card, so this hand range is any two random cards. Everyone folds to him, and he limps in. We can narrow his hands down. If he held a terrible hand like 82o, he likely would have folded. If he held an excellent hand like QQ, he likely would have raised. So his hand is likely something in between. We can guess that he might have one of the following hands: [88-22 A9s-A2s, KJs-K8s, QJs-54s, QTs-53s, Q9s-T7s A9o-A7o, KQo-K9o,QJo-T9o, QTo] This is a little over 20 percent of all hands, and it's a decent guess for a limping range for an average small stakes regular player. I'm assuming his raising range looks like: [AA-99 AKs-ATs, KQs AKo-ATo] These ranges are just rough guesses. It's hard to know too much about what players have the moment they enter a pot. We'll look more at preflop ranges in the next chapter. Three players limp behind our regular, the small blind calls, and the big blind checks. Six players see the flop with $12 in the pot. The flop comes Q♦T♦9♠. The small blind checks, and the big blind bets out for $15. The regular calls. We can narrow his hands down further. On a coordinated flop like this one in a multiway limped pot, we could fairly expect the regular to fold any hand that did not connect with the board. Out of his preflop limping range, here are the hands we could reasonably expect him to fold. [77-22 A8s-A2s, K8s, 76s-54s, 75s-53s (not diamonds) A8o-A7o] These hands make nothing on this board, and while a fish might call anyway with some of these hands, a regular would typically fold them. He might also fold hands like A9 and 97s that hit this flop, but make weak hands that likely won't hold up by the river. But for the purpose of this exercise, we’ll keep these hands in consideration. That leaves the following hands: [88 A9s, KJs-K9s, QJs-87s, QTs-86s, Q9s-T7s, Ad8d- Ad2d, Kd8d, 7d6d-5d4d, 7d5d-5d3d A9o, KQo-K9o, QJo-T9o, QTo] Some of these hands he might choose to raise (e.g., QTo), and some of them he'd almost surely just call (e.g., J9o). Players do slowplay routinely, however, so don't put too much stock into the fact that a player just called rather than raised, especially early in a hand. A call can be a strong hand or it can be a marginal hand. If these bracketed ranges seem overly complicated, don't worry. We're not going to go through this process for every hand in the book. We'll use shortcuts. But make sure you understand what I'm doing in this example, because this process is fundamental to hand reading. Everyone else folds. So there are two players left, the flop bettor and our regular. The pot is $42, and each player has about $183 behind. The turn is the 2♣ making the board Q♦T♦9♠2♣. This card is a total brick. It devalues all the drawing hands and boosts the value of good made hands. The flop bettor checks, and our regular checks behind. What does this action tell us about his hand range? While slowplaying on the flop is common, it would be peculiar for a regular to check a strong hand on the turn in a heads-up pot on a draw-heavy board. We can fairly safely eliminate all hands two pair or better from his hand range. He could reasonably play this way with his one pair hands, pair plus draw hands, or pure drawing hands. Therefore, we can estimate our regular's hand range now as [88 A9s, KTs-K9s, QJs-JTs, 98s-87s, J9s-86s, T7s, Ad8d- Ad2d, Kd8d, 7d6d-5d4d, 7d5d-5d3d A9o, KQo, KTo-K9o, QJo-JTo] The river comes the 8♣, making the final board Q♦T♦9♠2♣8♣. The flop bettor checks again, and the regular bets $40 into the $42 pot. This bet represents a jack for the straight. But does he really have a jack? Or is he just betting the scary card to pick up the pot? Our hand range will help us answer the question. Of the hands in the range we gave the regular after the turn, which ones have a jack in them? Only a few: QJs, JTs, J9s, QJo, and JTo. Two other hands also improved significantly on the river: 88 and 76s. Out of all the hands that we thought the regular could have after the turn, only seven of them make trips or a straight. This works out to approximately 30 percent of the total hands in the regular's turn range. (I'll show you how to calculate this number in the next section.) So does he have it? Or is he bluffing? Before the regular decided to bet, we'd estimate about a 30 percent chance that he held a strong hand. After the bet, though, that number goes up. Regular-type players typically don't make this bet with a hand like K♦T♥. They'd check that hand back and hope to win a showdown. Say I were the big blind and held AA (not that I'd play AA this way). Would I call the river bet? I'd probably fold. Remember the second principle of hand reading. Most people don't bluff enough. Combine that fact with the raw 30 percent chance that my opponent made a big hand, and the fact that I’ve kept some weak hands in the range that the regular may have had the good sense to fold on the flop, and I'd estimate that I'm beaten often enough that I should fold. Since I'm calling $40 to win $82, I have to win only one time in three to make the call worth it, but I don't think a regular is bluffing quite often enough in this situation to make it a good call. That's how you use hand ranges to read hands. You start out by giving your opponent the widest possible range, any two cards. Then you narrow that range down based on each action your opponent takes. It's a systematic process. It may look unduly complicated right now, but with practice you will learn the shortcuts that will enable you to do it in your head in just the seconds it takes to play a hand. Exercise No. 1. Go back through the above example hand and write out the hand ranges for the big blind. Write out the range of hands he might have after the cards are dealt. Then write out a range after he checks his option. Then write his range after he bets the flop, after he checks the turn, and after he checks the river.  Hand Combinations In the last section, I said that the regular would hold a strong hand about 30 percent of the time. You calculate that number by counting hand combinations. We talk about having pocket aces preflop. Or ace-king suited. Or ace-king offsuit. But AKs, for instance, isn't an actual hand. It's just a convenient name for one of four hands you could be dealt: A♠K♠, A♥K♥, A♣K♣, and A♦K♦. Therefore, we say there are four ways to have AKs. There are six distinct ways to make AA: A♠A♥, A♠A♣, A♠A♦, A♥A♣, A♥A♦, and A♣A♦. And there are twelve distinct ways to make AKo: A♠K♥, A♠K♣, A♠K♦, A♥K♠, A♥K♣, A♥K♦, A♣K♠, A♣K♥, A♣K♦, A♦K♠, A♦K♥, and A♦K♣. In general, any suited hand can be made four ways, any pocket pair six ways, and any offsuit hand twelve ways. Each combination is equally likely. Therefore, you are twice as likely to be dealt AKo as you are AA, since there are twice the number of hand combinations (12 versus 6). You are three times as likely to be dealt AKo as you are AKs (12 versus 4). Once cards hit the board, these numbers change. The board cards can no longer appear in anyone's hand. If the flop is 9♠7♠5♠, then there are still six ways to have KK, but only three ways to have 77. Since the 7♠ is on the board, only 7♥7♣, 7♥7♦, and 7♣7♦ are possible. In general, there are three ways to have a set, twelve ways to have a pair with a specific kicker, (e.g., AQ on a Q-high board), and nine ways to have two pair. Say someone reraises preflop and you assign him the following hand range  [AA-TT AKs-AQs AKo-AQo] The flop comes K♦9♦4♣. What percentage of the time does he have a pair of kings or better? There are six ways each to make AA, QQ, JJ, and TT. Since KK would make a set, there are only three ways for that hand. There are twelve ways to make top pair AK (three suited combos and nine offsuit) and sixteen ways to make AQ (four suited and twelve offsuit). There are 27 combos of pocket pairs, 12 combos of AK, and 16 of AQ for 55 total hand combos. Of these, 21 make a pair of kings or better (AA, KK, AKs, and AKo). Thus, there is a 21/55 chance, or about 38 percent, that this player made a pair of kings or better. Assuming, of course, that the initial guess for his hand range is correct. Exercise No. 2. Check my math in the Hand Ranges section. Using the hand range I gave after the turn play, calculate how many combinations make trips or better.  Preflop Hand Reading You've now got the tools you need to start soul reading opponents. Hand ranges give you a systematic approach to determine what your opponent might have. And counting hand combos allows you to calculate the probabilities. The rest of the book will teach you how to construct hand ranges for your opponents. It's all the hand reading tips, tricks, and shortcuts I've learned through thousands of hours of experience. Here's my first tip. Your opponents aren't robots. Sometimes they'll look down at a bad hand they'd usually fold and, for whatever reason, decide to play it this time. Likewise, they'll sometimes fold decent hands they'd usually play. We're obviously more interested in the weird hands they play rather than what they fold. Because your opponents aren't robots, you have to be flexible with your hand reading. You can't ever know precisely which hands the player in seat nine will call a raise with. You may have him pegged as the nittiest nit, but if the board comes A-7-6-J-4 and he shovels money in on the river, you have to consider that he may have called you preflop with 85. Tip No 1. Be flexible. Your opponents will sometimes play unpredictably. Don't get caught off-guard. Be willing to reconsider your reads given new information. With that disclaimer out of the way, let's build some theoretical preflop hand ranges for different opponent types. Let's assume we're playing a 9-handed live $1-$2 game where most players have at least $150 in play. The Nit For $2, nits will try to sneak into pots with a reasonably wide range of hands. Here is a reasonable range for a nit who open-limps  [AA-22 AKs-A2s, KQs-KTs, QJs-54s, QTs AKo-ATo, KQo-KTo, QJo-JTo] Out of the 1326 total possible starting hands, this range represents 282 of them or about 20 percent. Someone playing this range is open folding about 80 percent of the time and playing about 20 percent of the time. Of the 282 hands the nit is playing, 78 of them are pocket pairs. (There are 13 different pocket pairs, and each can be made six ways.) Thus, a nit will have a pocket pair about 30 percent of the time after opening the pot. (This is a considerably higher number than for the other player types. Nits do love flopping their sets.) Nits vary in their preflop raising standards. Some literally never raise preflop. The ones who do raise preflop typically don't raise very often with hands at the bottom of their opening range like KTo or 76s or 22. They use the straightforward strategy of raising their better hands and limping their weaker hands. Behind a limper (or several limpers), nits sometimes add a few more hands. Most of these hands are suited—e.g., 86s and K7s. If someone has raised, nits often tighten up considerably. Say I opened the pot for $10 from four off the button, and a nit called me next to act. I might give him a range like this [AA-22 AKs-ATs, KQs-KJs, QJs, JTs AKo-AQo] Pocket pairs, Broadway suited hands, AK and AQ. In particular, they'll fold weaker offsuit hands and also frequently small suited hands. This range is very pocket pair heavy: 78 of the 134 total combinations in this range are pocket pairs —a staggering 58 percent.  Not all nits play this tightly against a raise. But even a looser nit's range will be very pocket pair heavy. Tip No. 2. When nits call preflop raises, they very frequently have pocket pairs and big suited hands. In the above example, I opened the pot and the nit called next to act. Most players play tighter in this scenario than when the pot is already multiway. Say I open for $10 and then four players call. A nit calls in the small blind. In this scenario I'd expect him to loosen up from the last hand range. He might play a range similar to his open-limping range without the weaker offsuit hands [AA-22 AKs-A2s, KQs-KTs, QJs-54s, QTs AKo-AJo, KQo] Nits don't make preflop 3-bets or 4-bets without very strong hands. It's not 100 percent, every time reliable, but it's true enough that you should simply fold when a nit 3-bets or 4-bets you unless you have AA or KK. (And if the money is deep and the nit wants to play for stacks, consider folding KK.) In our live 9-handed $1-$2 game, here is the nit's 3-betting range [AA-KK] Some might get frisky with QQ or AK. Pay Attention. When you see someone 3-bet or 4-bet, watch the hand. If they show a hand considerably weaker than TT or AQ, they likely 3-bet "light." You can loosen up considerably against these players when they 3-bet. Nit preflop play summary  Nits will open the pot with roughly 20 percent of their hands (plus or minus 5 percent or so). This range consists of about 30 percent pocket pairs. Nits call raises fairly tightly. In raised pots, nits have an even more pocket pair heavy range. Nits generally don't 3-bet without the nuts. Some nits rarely raise preflop, some raise a little more often. Those who raise usually raise stronger hands and limp weaker ones. Be flexible. Nits usually know they have a tight image, and they will surprise you from time to time. The Regular Recall our definition of a regular from the player types section. This is a "solid" player for a small stakes no-limit game. Unlikely to make any eye- poppingly bad plays, but prone to have a collection of bad, exploitable habits. For many regulars, these bad habits begin preflop. Regulars play more hands than nits do. For the most part, these extra hands just get them into trouble. Here are some possible sample ranges for a $1-$2 regular player. This is just a jumping off point. No two regulars will play exactly the same way. Opening the pot for a limp, regulars will typically play all the hands that nits play, plus more suited hands, connected hands, and rag aces. [AA-22 AKs-A2s, KQs-K9s, QJs-54s, QTs-75s, Q9s-96s AKo-A2o, KQo-K9o, QJo-98o, QTo] This range represents about 35 percent of all hands. Of these hands, many regulars will open the stronger ones for a raise. A raising range might look like  [AA-55 AKs-A8s, KQs-KJs, QJs AKo-ATo, KQo] This is about 12 percent of all hands, or about 1/3 of all the hands the regular will play opening the pot. Limping behind limpers, regulars will often open up a little more, adding in hands like Q5s and K8o. When calling raises, regulars will typically play most of the suited hands from their opening range, while dropping some of the weaker offsuit holdings. [AA-22 AKs-A2s, KQs-K9s, QJs-54s, QTs-75s AKo-A9o, KQo-KJo, QJo-JTo] Like nits, most regulars don't 3-bet or 4-bet very often. A reasonable guess for a 3-betting range from a typical regular is [AA-QQ AKs AKo] Some players stretch this range out to include JJ, TT, AQs, and AQo. Compared to the nit ranges, these hand ranges are heavier with offsuit holdings and therefore lighter with pocket pairs and big suited cards. If a regular will limp in with any offsuit ace as in the opening range I listed above, then slightly over 40 percent of his range will consist of a hand with an ace in it. This is why it can seem like someone always holds an ace when one flops. The ace on the flop reduces the number of Ax combinations possible, but if there are three or four regulars in a pot each with ranges heavily weighted toward ace- high hands, it's far more likely than not that someone holds an ace. On the other hand, when no ace flops, a typical regular's range will often be fairly weak. Regular preflop play summary Regulars play more hands than nits do. They play more weak suited hands, more connected offsuit hands, and more offsuit rag aces. Regulars are often willing to open-raise with hands like 66 and JTs, but even so they usually limp in with more hands than they raise. Typical regulars play ranges that are heavily weighted toward aces. More than 40 percent of holdings in a typical range can contain an ace. Because so much of their range consists of aces and other offsuit hands, regulars often hit the flop weakly when no ace shows. Regulars tend to 3-bet tightly. Fold to their 3-bets unless you have a premium hand. The Fish Fish play poker for the thrill of winning pots. They know that you can't win a pot if you fold preflop. So most fish play well more than 50 percent of their starting hands. It's impossible to pin them down on any particular range. Many fish base their calling or folding decisions on various factors besides the strength of their hand: whether they've been on a rush or not, whether someone they want to play against is in the pot or not, whether they just got a phone call, and so forth. It doesn't really make sense to write out reference ranges for fish. They play most hands. I have only two points to make make about how fish play preflop. Many times I've heard players complain about a fish (usually a fish on a hot streak). "I hate playing against you. You'll play anything. I never know what you have." This has some truth to it. Fish play most hands, so they have the widest hand ranges. It is indeed often harder to know what a fish has than what a nit or a regular has. But wider ranges are also weaker ranges. All those offsuit hands that fish play are simply bad no-limit hands. They hit the flop weakly and rarely make hands that can play for stacks. Early on in a pot, you don't have to worry so much about enumerating the mind-bendingly wide hand ranges. Instead, you can just assume that fish are weak until they suggest otherwise (usually by raising). Fish can vary a lot in their 3-betting strategies. Some fish make minimum sized reraises with AA only. Other fish make unpredictable reraises with a wide variety of hands. As a general rule of thumb, give nearly any live player credit for a strong hand the first time they 3-bet. If you see someone 3-bet multiple times within an hour or two, however, then suspect that they may be doing so with a wide array of hands. In particular, if you see someone who plays like a fish make a lot of 3-bets, expect him to show up frequently with very weak hands like T7o when he reraises. Fish preflop play summary Fish play most hands. Fish base their preflop play versus fold decisions on many factors that have nothing to do with hand strength. The wide ranges that fish play are, by definition, weak. A fish on a hot streak might seem hard to play against, but streaks aren't predictive in any way. Every time a fish picks up two cards and throws the money in, he's very likely to end up with a weak hand by the time all the cards are out. Fish play a wide variety of 3-betting strategies. Many of them are very tight with 3-bets like most other live players. Some, however, are wild with their 3-bets, putting in big raises with trash. Pay attention and you can usually tell who is tight and who isn't. Preflop hand reading exercises Exercise No. 3. Write out hand ranges for your own preflop play. What is your range to open the pot? Do you add hands as your position improves? How about calling a raise or reraising? Compare your ranges to the ones for the nits and the regulars. Do you fit roughly into either of those categories, or do you play in a substantially different way? Exercise No. 4. You're playing in a 9-handed $1-$2 live game. Two players fold, and then a regular open-limps. A fish limps behind him, and then another regular limps. You raise to $15 on the button with A♣Q♣. A nit calls in the small blind. The first regular folds, the fish calls, and the second regular calls. Write out possible hand ranges for each of your four opponents: Reg1 (open- limp/fold), Fish (limp/call), Reg2 (limp/call), Nit (cold-call). Remember that Reg1 folded, so don't include any hands in his range that he would have called a raise with. Which of these players is most likely to hold a pocket pair? Who is most likely to hold an ace with a weaker kicker than yours? Exercise No. 5. You have J♦J♣. Two players limp, and you raise to $10. A regular reraises to $35. You know from experience that this regular will reraise with the following range [AA-QQ AKs AKo] What is the percentage chance your opponent has each of the following hands: AA, KK, QQ, and AK? Now the action is the same, but you have A♠K♣ instead. Your opponent has the same range. How have the percentages changed? (Hint: Holding an ace and king in your hand reduces the number of combinations of a number of these hands.)  Hand Reading On The Flop Before the flop, you're usually just trying to get a general sense of the sorts of hands your opponents will and won't play. The real business of hand reading begins on the flop. Most of your opponents—whether they be nits, fish, or regulars—will play a fit-or-fold strategy after the flop. They will tend to call or raise on flops that connect with their hands, and they will fold on flops that miss their hands. Naturally, a nit will tend to have stricter standards for "fitting" the flop than a fish will have. But both player types are going with the "fits" and dumping the rest. This fact makes hand reading much easier. Specifically, here's what your $1- $2 opponents won't be doing (except in rare circumstances): They won't be cold bluffing you repeatedly on multiple streets. They won't be calling your flop bets with air to try to steal the pot from you on a later street. They won't be raising your flop bets with air. Furthermore, if they call you on the flop and raise you on the turn, they will essentially never have air. This isn't to say that people won't try to run bluffs on you. They will. But the bluffs will usually take one of two forms: 1. Semi-bluffs with drawing hands. People will sometimes bet or raise flush  and straight draws. 2. River bluffs with hands that fit the flop, but then didn't pan out on the turn and river. Examples include busted draws and small pairs that didn't improve. Tip No. 3. If someone calls or raises you on the flop, expect this player to have "fit" the flop. Some players' definitions of fitting will be looser than others. This fit-or-fold rule breaks down when you start playing against tough players in tighter games. Good players will try to read your hand and sometimes will run unexpected bluffs against you when they perceive that you may be weak. But fit- or-fold is a good hand reading rule of thumb against the vast majority of small stakes no-limit players. When You Have The Initiative You have the initiative in a hand when you were the last person to bet or raise. Say two regulars limp in preflop, and you raise the button to $12. The regulars call. After the flop, both players check to you. You have the initiative. You were the last person to put in a bet or raise, and your opponents are now reacting to you. If you play correctly in a small stakes game, you will often have the initiative. Aggression gets the money, and you want your opponents to be responding to your bets and raises more often than not. Since it's such a common situation, hand reading on the flop starts with learning to decode your opponents' responses to your flop bets. Let's run through a series of flops and come up with hand ranges for various opponent types. For each of these examples, assume that the action goes as follows. A player limps in four off the button. Another player limps two off the button. You raise on the button to $12. The blinds fold, and the two limpers call. On the flop, both players check to you. You bet $30 into the $39 pot, and the first limper calls and the second folds. We're going to come up with ranges for the flop caller in each example.  K♦8♠4♥ This is a dry flop that allows for few drawing hands. A nit would likely want at least a pair of eights on this flop to consider it a fit. Preflop, we assumed that a nit would open-limp with [AA-22 AKs-A2s, KQs-KTs, QJs-54s, QTs AKo-ATo, KQo-KTo, JTo] Of these hands, the following make a pair of eights or better [AA-88, 44 AKs, A8s, KQs-KTs, 98s-87s AKo, KQo-KTo] These are roughly the hands you should expect a nit to have after calling you on this flop. You can break this range down further into two portions, strong fits and weak fits. A strong fit is a hand that your opponent is likely to call with again on the turn, and a weak fit is one that he's likely to fold to continued pressure. Nits will typically fold pairs lower than kings to further betting while hanging on with top pair or better. Here are the strong fits. [AA-KK, 88, 44 AKs, KQs-KTs AKo, KQo-KTo] And the weak fits.  [QQ-99 A8s, 98s-87s] A quick look at these two ranges will tell you that there are many more strong fits than weak fits on this flop. Thus, if you were to bet the turn, you should more often than not expect your opponent to have a pair of kings or better and call (or raise). Tip No. 4. On a dry flop with one high card and two low ones, if a nit calls you on the flop he's more likely than not to have top pair or better. Thinking in terms of strong fits and weak fits is a very useful shortcut during a hand. Say you flop a set. If your opponent is likely to have more strong fits than weak fits, then you will surely want to bet the turn and river for value. On the other hand, if his hand range is heavy with weak fits, you might choose to slowplay to give him a chance to catch up and pay off with something. Likewise, if you are considering a bluff, you want to try it against a range heavy with weak fits. When I'm reading hands during the heat of battle, I don't enumerate long hand range lists in my head. Insteady I often just try to get a rough count of the strong fit hands versus the weak fit hands and plan my strategy accordingly. Tip No. 5. If you struggle with enumerating hand ranges in your head, make things simpler by dividing the possibilities into strong fits and weak fits. Back to the example flop of K♦8♠4♥. What hands would a fish consider to be a fit on this flop? Most fish will call the flop with any pair. So any king, eight, four, or pocket pair is a fit. Furthermore, a fish would typically call with a gutshot around the 8 and 4 (76, 75, and 65). Finally, many fish would call a dry flop like this one with ace-high, two big unpaired cards, or possibly a couple of backdoor draws. I'd expect many fish to call this flop of K♦8♠4♥ with hands like A♦T♠, Q♣J♣, or 9♠7♠.  That's a lot of hands. So many, in fact, that I won't try to write them all out in bracket notation. But even so, the fish is still folding a lot of hands on the flop. Almost no one, not even a fish, is going to take one off on the flop with hands like Q♣2♣, J♦7♠, or T♥3♥. This is the big problem with the ultra-loose, fit-or-fold strategy of the fish. They have a weak hand range at nearly every point in a hand. They will call the flop with a wide array of trash. But their preflop ranges are so wide and weak that they are still frequently folding to flop continuation bets. Tip No. 6. Fish call flops with a wide array of bad hands that you would likely never consider continuing with. This sets them up with a weak hand range on the turn. "Never try to bluff a fish." It's advice that you've no doubt heard before. And there's certainly a lot of wisdom in it. Some fish will call you down on three streets with a pair of threes just for the heck of it. But it's not a hard and fast rule. Fish tend to have weak hand ranges on all streets because their calling ranges are so wide. At every stage of a hand, they are folding some percentage of their holdings. If a fish calls a K♦8♠4♥ flop with A5 or 97 and doesn't improve on the turn, he's likely to give it up on the turn. Thus, it often pays to be aggressive against fish with hands you'd play more conservatively against tighter players. For instance, if you held 6♦6♥ on the K♦8♠4♥ flop, bet the flop, and a fish called, you should consider betting the turn. Say the turn was the 8♥ (an admittedly good card for you). You bet the turn. Sure, you'll get called by kings and eights, but you'll also get called by fours and 33. And you'll get hands like 97 and QJ to fold. This book is about hand reading more than betting strategy, so I will leave this tangent now. The takeaway is that fish have weak hand ranges throughout hands, and therefore you can often play aggressively against these ranges with what might look like marginal hands. Breaking down the fish's flop calling range into strong fits and weak fits isn't as straightforward as it was with the nit. Obviously top pair and better will be strong fits. No pair, no good draw hands are weak fits. The smaller pairs, however, are player-dependent. Some players will call you down doggedly with every lowly pair of deuces. Others will give these hands up to pressure. Pay Attention. Pay close attention to how the fish at your table play. The fish at the table are always your most important opponents. They are your main source of profit. They also give away tons of information about how they play. First, they play nearly every hand, so you get a lot of data points on them. Second, they often make no attempt to disguise their play. Don't be satisfied just thinking that they play "bad." There is method to their madness. Figure it out, and it will pay dividends. A good place to start is to figure out exactly where they draw the line in calling down with weak pairs. How about the regulars? What will their hand range look like after calling a K♦8♠4♥ flop? Recall the open-limping range we proposed for them in the preflop chapter. [44-22 A7s-A2s, KTs-K9s, JTs-54s, QTs-75s, Q9s-96s A9o-A2o, KJo-K9o, QJo-98o, QTo] This is the total opening range, but with the hands we'd expect them to raise removed. You shouldn't discount the raising hands entirely, however. People limp in with "raising" hands sometimes. Which of these hands would a regular consider a fit on a K♦8♠4♥ flop? [44 A4s, KTs-K9s, 98s-65s, T8s,86s, J8s A8o, A4o, KJo-K9o, 98o] This range is about right. I included the gutshot hands (76s and 65s), but left out bottom pair, no kicker (54s). Some regulars would fold the gutshots and call with the pair. Hand reading is not an exact science. You often won't be certain about some of the hands on the fringes. Which of these hands are strong fits? [44 KTs-K9s KJo-K9o] And the weak fits. [A4s, 98s-65s, T8s, 86s, J8s A8o, A4o, 98o] I included A8o with the weak fits, but it could go either way depending on what comes on the turn. A regular might like A8o better if the turn is a deuce than if it's a queen. If you count the hand combinations, the regular's flop calling range divides roughly equally into strong and weak fits with a few extra hands on the weak side. This means that if the turn was a card like a queen that doesn't improve any of the weak fit hands and puts another overcard on board to the eight, you could bet the turn and expect a good fold percentage. Tip No. 7. Counting the weak fits is often as important as counting the strong fits. When your opponent's range is full of weak fits, it gives you the green light to stay aggressive. You can bluff against weak fits, and you can also bet so-so made hands for thin value. This is the essence of hand reading. You take a hand range and compare it to what's on board. Then you get into your opponents' heads a little bit and guess about how they would play each possible hand. As a hand progresses, your guesses become more and more refined. They also become more refined as you learn more about your opponents. What About Getting Raised?  In the last example, we came up with ranges your opponents might call your flop bet with. What if they raise instead? When your opponents raise instead of call (or call instead of raise) it sometimes gives you extra information. But other times, your opponents will raise you with "calling" hands and call you with "raising" hands, and so you don't gain as much information. Here are the general rules for when raising is meaningful. Raises late in the hand mean more than raises early in a hand. Raises of large bets mean more than raises of small ones. Also, large- sized raises mean more than small-sized ones. Raises mean more the more tight and passive the player making the raise. Here are these principles in action. You bet $150 into a $200 pot on the river. The board is Q♣9♣2♠7♣A♦. Your nit opponent raises you all-in for $500 more. This is a large raise, late in a hand, from a tight and passive player. He has the nuts. Period. Ace-high flush every time. This raise gives you the ultimate in hand reading, a perfect read. (Unfortunately, the only thing you can do with the read in this case is to fold.) Rewind this hand to the flop—Q♣9♣2♠. It's the same nitty opponent. You bet $15 into a $20 pot. He raises to $45. What does this raise mean? It's not necessarily the nuts in this case. The raise means that he fit the flop. It also likely means that he has a strong fit. He could have a set, but he could also have KK or AQ. He could also have a big draw like A♣J♣ or J♣T♣. Here we have a tight and passive opponent, but the raise comes early in the hand and it's a small bet. Therefore, the raise gives us some information (we're up against a strong fit, not a weak fit), but not as much as the previous example. Now change the opponent to a fish who plays fast-and-loose. This player type could raise with any hand he considers a fit on this flop, possibly including hands as trashy as A♣T♠. In this case, the fact that the opponent raised tells us almost nothing versus a call. There's one other important factor that distinguishes raising ranges from calling ranges. People tend to raise when they have a strong hand that they fear might get outdrawn. We'll talk more about this tendency for players to want to "end the hand" or "put you to a decision" later on. So back to the original question. What if you get raised? On a dry flop like K♦8♠4♥, you don't get too much information from whether people raise or call. If a nit raises you, he likely has a strong fit. But a regular or fish might choose to raise this flop sometimes with a good portion of their range. Likewise, any player with a super-strong hand like two pair or a set might choose to slowplay on this flop. So I wouldn't expect too much separation in this particular scenario between calling ranges and raising ranges. Tip No. 8. Decoding raising versus calling can be tricky. In some situations, the fact that a player raised (or called) is significant and can help you narrow down hand ranges. In others, raising and calling ranges are fairly well mixed together. Using the guidelines provided, along with experience, you can get a feel for how this dynamic works. Now let's see how this hand reading logic changes on different flop types. First, let's look at the same flop, but make it ace-high instead of king-high. A♦8♠4♥ Nits hit this flop a bit more often than they hit the king-high flop. Since nits often play any suited ace, the ace-high flop gives them more top pair combos and also some two pair combos (A8s and A4s) that weren't in the nit's range on the king-high flop. Normally you should consider most hands top pair or better to be strong fits. Players generally don't like to fold top pair. But if a nit flops A♦8♠4♥ to his A♣3♣, it's a weak fit. Fearing a better kicker, nits will typically fold weak kicker aces to pressure on the turn. Exercise No. 6. Using the same process we used in the king-high flop example, write out the hand range a nit would consider a fit on an A♦8♠4♥ flop. Then divide the hand range into strong fits and weak fits. Use your judgement about how high a kicker a nit might need to consider a pair of aces a strong fit rather than a weak one. Are there more strong fits or weak fits? What does that fact say about your bluffing chances on the turn? This flop plays fairly similarly against a fish as the king-high flop. Since fish often play both K5o and A5o, roughly the same number of hands will fit both flops. The one thing to look out for are the gutshot draws around the ace and four on this flop. Fish can have 53, 52, and 32 when they call you. These draws aren't a large part of a fish's range, but if another wheel card comes and a fish all of a sudden wants to get the money in, don't miss these possibilities. Since regulars play an ace-heavy hand range, changing the king to an ace has the most effect on their hand ranges. This was the regular's open-limping hand range. [44-22 A7s-A2s, KTs-K9s, JTs-54s, QTs-75s, Q9s-96s A9o-A2o, KJo-K9o, QJo-98o, QTo] Of these hands, this flop fits [44 A7s-A2s, 98s-65s, T8s, 86s, J8s A9o-A2o, 98o] Dividing this range into strong fits and weak fits, we get [44 A7s-A2s A9o-A2o] for strong fits, and [98s-65s, T8s, 86s, J8s 98o] for weak fits. Regulars will also sometimes fold ace-rag to turn pressure, but they do so much less reliably than nits. So for these purposes I would consider even A2o to be a strong fit (though it really belongs somewhere between the strong and weak fits). Let's count the strong fits versus weak fits. There are 3 combos of 44 and 3 combos each of A7s-A5s, A3s-A2s. Since it makes two pair, there are only 2 combos of A4s. For the offsuit hands, A9o, A7o-A5o, and A3o-A2o have 9 combos each. A8o and A4o have 7 combos each. That makes 88 total combos of strong fits. For weak fits, we can make 98s and 87s 3 ways and 76s and 65s 4 ways. There are 3 ways each for T8s, 86s, and J8s. Finally, there are 9 ways to make 98o. That makes 35 combos of weak fits. In the king-high example, the strong fits and weak fits were roughly equal in number. In this example, however, there are 88 strong fits to only 35 weak ones. Regulars hit ace-high flops harder than they hit many other flops. Tip No. 9. When a regular calls your flop bet on a dry ace-high flop, you are very frequently looking at a pair of aces or better. It usually does not pay to continue a bluff against this hand range. 6♣5♥2♦ Nits fit this flop with pocket pairs, the suited aces that connect with the board (particularly A6s and A5s), and a few suited connectors (87s, 76s, 65s, 54s). This is well less than half of the hands they open with, so it's almost always a good idea to continuation bet rag flops like this one against nits. Players of all types tend to raise rag flops more often than they raise flops like Kxx. Many players will flat-call preflop with QQ-88, but then raise the flop when they catch three undercards. This tendency can make playing JJ on a flop like this a bit tricky. If you bet the flop and get raised, your opponent could have hands you beat (TT-88, 87s) and hands that beat you (AA-QQ, 66, 55,22, and 65s) with roughly equal frequency. With 99 on this flop, I'd tend to fold to a raise, since that's 12 extra hand combos that now beat me. With KK, I'd be inclined to play for stacks since I could be getting it in good against all the lower overpairs. With JJ, it's a reasonably close decision between playing for stacks on the flop, folding on the flop, and calling the flop to get more information on the turn. Fish will call flops like this with any pair, any gutshot (e.g., Q3, T4, 97), and even two overcards like KJ. This is a very weak hand range. You can often get a turn fold if you bet, with the usual caveat that a fish might decide to get stubborn and call three streets with 32. This flop doesn't hit the ace-high heavy range of a regular very hard. Pocket pairs are fits, as are the small aces (A6-A2), and a small handful of suited connectors (98s-54s, 97s-75s, 96s). Offsuit connector fits are also possible (98o, 87o), though they are on the fringe of many players' preflop ranges. Tip No. 10. You should often bet rag flops. Your opponents won't give you much credit for hitting the little cards, but they will have missed with most of their ranges as well, and players tend to give up rather than play back. The exception would be if you have air, and you're against a particularly stubborn fish. The fish will find plenty of hands to call with on the flop and won't readily give you credit for a hand. 7♣7♥3♠ Everything I said about the rag flop goes for this one as well, except this small, paired flop is even harder to hit. Most player types will fold more hands on a flop like this than nearly any other type of flop. Having said that, if you have an aggressive or bluffy image, this flop can represent an exception to the "fit-or-fold" assumption we made. Some players who don't normally play back with weak hands might call or raise you with air on a flop like this one because they realize that it's hard for you to have hit this flop as well. Exercise No. 7. Write out hand ranges for nits, fish, and regulars that constitute a fit on a 7♣7♥3♠ flop. Then, next time you play, watch how different players handle these small, dry flops. What hands do they turn up with at showdown? Do you see players calling the flop (or flop and turn) only to fold to a bet on a later street? If so, what sorts of hands do you think they're doing this with? K♥J♥3♠ The flops we've covered up until now have all been relatively uncoordinated. No flush draws and few straight draws were available. Now we'll explore some more coordinated flops. This one features two Broadway cards (ten and over) and a possible heart flush draw. Let's look at how the nit's range connects with this flop. This was our opening range for the nit. [AA-22 AKs-A2s, KQs-KTs, QJs-54s, QTs AKo-ATo, KQo-KTo, JTo] With two overcards on board, most nits will fold TT-44 and 22 on this flop. The other hands that fit are kings, jacks, open-ended straight draws, and flush draws. Thus, the fits are roughly [AA-JJ AKs, AJs, KQs-KTs, QJs-JTs, QTs, AhQh, AhTh-Ah2h, Th9h-5h4h AKo, AJo, KQo-KTo, JTo]  That's a good portion of the nit's original range. Let's divide these hands into strong fits and weak fits. Nits will often fold small flush draws or open-ended straight draws not to the nuts to a sufficiently large turn bet. So I'll classify those hands as weak fits, while I'll keep the ace-high flush draws and combo draws as strong fits. That gives us for strong fits. [AA-KK, JJ AKs, KQs-KTs, QhTh, AhQh, AhTh-Ah2h AKo, KQo-KTo] And weak fits. [QQ AJs, QJs-JTs, QTs (not hearts), Th9h-5h4h AJo, JTo] This leaves more hand combos in the strong fit category than the weak fit one. Overall, a nit who calls on this flop will tend to have a strong hand range going into the turn. Furthermore, it won't be clear to you which turn cards are scare cards for your opponent, or which ones make his hand. Tip No. 11. Flops with two (or three) high cards and a flush draw tend to hit nits' hand ranges fairly hard. Since they play, proportionally speaking, a lot of big suited hands, this should be no surprise. Fish play a wide assortment of hands. Some play so many hands that you should treat their hand range going into the flop as if it were any two cards. [xx] It's easy to look at a flop like K♥J♥3♠ and think, "Wow, that hits a lot of hands." But it actually hits no more hands than T♦5♣3♣ does. Both flops have two connected cards to form straight draws around, two cards of the same suit for flush draws, and a third unrelated card. The reason K♥J♥3♠ hits more hands in practice is because most players play hand ranges that are heavily weighted toward high cards. A regular player is a whole lot more likely to hold QT to make a straight draw than 42. But with fish, this isn't so. They play a wide array of hands and can show up with both QT and 42. Thus, fish hit T♦5♣3♣ and K♥J♥3♠ with nearly the same frequency. This actually makes K♥J♥3♠ a particularly bad flop for a fish. Everyone else is playing hand ranges strongly weighted toward high cards, but the fish isn't. Consider the following. Say you hold T♦T♣ and you're heads-up against a fish who plays more than 80 percent of his hands. The flop comes K♥J♥3♠. Who do you think is the equity favorite? You are. According to PokerStove, TT is a 62/38 equity favorite over the fish's hand range even on this "terrible" flop for your pair. Fish play so many hands that they will have a weak hand range on nearly any flop, even ones that look dangerous. Tip No. 12. There's no such thing as a scary flop against a fish. Fish play so many junk hands that they cannot possibly clobber a flop the way a player with a tighter hand range can. The K♥J♥3♠ flop hit the nit's range quite hard. It will also hit a regular's range fairly hard. But whenever players play a lot of ace-rag hands, any flop without an ace in it will necessarily miss their range a good portion of the time. Exercise No. 8. Figure out what percentage of a regular's preflop range fits a K♥J♥3♠ flop. Divide those fits into strong fits and weak fits. Are there more strong fits or weak fits?  T♣8♣7♠ Let's focus on the regular this time. Here was his open-limping range from the preflop chapter. [44-22 A7s-A2s, KTs-K9s, JTs-54s, QTs-75s, Q9s-96s A9o-A2o, KJo-K9o, QJo-98o, QTo] Let's assume he will consider any straight draw (open-ended or gutshot), flush draw, or decent pair to be a fit on this flop. What is he left with? [A7s, KTs-K9s, JTs-65s, QTs-86s, Q9s-96s, Ac6c-Ac2c, 5c4c, 7c5c A9o-A7o, KTo-K9o, QJo-98o, QTo] Except for the small pairs and the bad offsuit aces, that's nearly every hand in the regular's limping range! Note how a medium-sized connected flop like this one hits nearly every connected hand in the deck. They make straights, two pair, pair plus straight draws, pair plus flush draws, top pairs, and so forth. Tip No. 13. Medium-sized coordinated flops hit most regulars' limping ranges very hard. When you bet flops like T♣8♣7♠, you will get relatively few folds. Furthermore, a good number of these hands qualify as strong fits. Pair plus draw hands are of particular interest. A player with 98 or 97 on a T♣8♣7♠ flop will often call a turn bet. When the board is coordinted like this, pair plus draw hands make up a significant fraction of your opponents' strong fits. Nits will also hit this flop fairly frequently because the top card, a ten, is high enough to connect with a number of high card hands. Exercise No. 9. Compare a nit's range on a T♣8♣7♠ flop to a 8♣6♣5♠ flop. Nits hit the first flop with more hands because the cards are higher, but how many more? Hand Reading In Action  Here's a hand I played in a $2-$5 game in Las Vegas. I used my knowledge of flop hand ranges to get extra value. My main opponent in this hand had about $900, and I had him covered. A player limped in, and my main opponent made it $20 to go. Of our three player types, I would classify him as a regular, but he had some fishy tendencies. He played a lot of hands and would sometimes make some unwise calldowns after the flop. He also raised a fairly wide range of hands preflop. Everyone folded to me in the small blind, and I made it $75 to go with J♥J♦. The limper folded, and the regular called as I expected him to do with most of his range. The flop was T♣9♥7♠. I bet $125 and my opponent called quickly. I wasn't certain at the time if he would have raised or called with a big hand such as T9 or TT. The turn was the 2♠. I bet $250 and my opponent called quickly again. In fact, his turn call was so quick that I considered it to be a tell. When someone calls very quickly, particularly if the bet is sizable, it typically indicates a medium- strength hand. It's a hand that is obviously (to the person playing the hand, at least) too good to fold, but also obviously not good enough to raise. When the flop is coordinated, pair plus draw hands make up a good chunk of my opponent's strong fit hands. If my opponent held a set or two pair, he would at least think about raising on the turn. But with 98, T8, JT, and the like, he would call and possibly call without much thought. The river came the Q♥. I bet $300. Normally a T♣9♥7♠2♠Q♥ board would be a bit scary for me holding J♥J♦. But I knew on the turn that my opponent's hand range consisted primarily of pair plus draw hands. A holding like KJ for a flopped double-gutter and rivered straight would be part of his turn-calling range, but since I held two jacks, only 8 combos of that hand were possible. Overall, the queen would have missed most of the hands in his turn calling range, so I thought there was an excellent chance my opponent had a pair smaller than mine. He hemmed and hawed for about a minute and then decided to call me with 88. He flopped a open-ender to his pocket pair and then paid off three streets with it.  By employing a little hand reading, I was able to make a good $300 value bet that other players might have missed. Flop hand reading summary Most of your opponents will play a fit-or-fold strategy on the flop where they continue with hands that "fit" the flop and fold those that don't Some players will have looser standards than others for which hands fit and which hands don't. But these standards will usually remain fairly consistent for a given player. If you bet the flop and your opponent calls you, construct a hand range from all the hands in his preflop range that fit the flop. You can divide that range into two: strong fits and weak fits. Strong fits are hands that your opponents will likely continue with on the turn, while weak fits are those that they'll likely fold on the turn without improvement. If your opponent has a hand range rich with weak fits, consider betting the turn either for value or as a bluff (depending on what you hold). Pay attention to the flop texture. A K♥J♥3♣ flop gives a nit a lot of strong fits. A T♣5♥3♥ flop misses the bulk of a nit's preflop hand range. Flop texture factors to consider are whether there's an ace or not, whether there are two (or three) connected cards, two (or three) of a suit, how high the top cards are, how high the connected cards are, whether the flop is paired, and so forth. Fish who play most of their hands preflop will have a weak hand range on nearly any flop. If you get raised on the flop, it may or may not allow you to further narrow down your opponents' holdings. Typically players will raise only with strong fit hands. But many players like to slowplay their strongest hands on the flop. On the other hand, they'll raise sometimes with draws or mediocre top pairs. Aggression early in the hand for smaller bets doesn't carry as much information as aggression later in the hand for bigger bets. I'll talk more about how to read an opponent's aggression in a later chapter.  Hand Reading On The Turn Once you have a flop hand range in mind for your opponent, hand reading on the turn is fairly simple. The turn card will either have improved your opponents' hands, or it won't have. Hands can improve on the turn in a few ways: Complete a draw Become two pair or trips (for a flopped pair) Catch a pair (e.g., a turn 6 holding 76 on a 982 flop) Catch a second draw (e.g., a turn K♣ holding 7♣6♣ on a 9♦8♣2♠ flop) Catch a brick (for a made hand on a coordinated board, e.g., a turn 2 holding KK on a T98 flop) There are some other ways to improve on the turn, but that covers the main scenarios. Tip No. 14. A player who called the flop and improved on the turn will rarely fold. It's simple, intuitive, and fairly reliable. Anyone who calls the flop and improves on the turn will usually call again (or raise). There are a few exceptions. If you make a massive overbet, you can get people to fold hands that they would have called a more typically-sized bet with. Nits also sometimes find folds on the turn when the improvement is marginal (e.g., a turn 6 holding 76 on a 982 flop).  In general, however, it's a good rule of thumb. People call or raise when they improve. When they don't improve, they generally continue with their flopped strong fits and fold their flopped weak fits. When the turn card hits, count how many hands in your opponents' ranges have improved. This will give you a sense of how they'll react if you bet. It's a $1-$2 game with $300 stacks. Two regulars limp in, and you raise to $12 on the button. The big blind calls, as does one of the limpers. There's $39 in the pot with $288 behind. The flop comes K♠T♥6♠. Both players check to you. You bet $30, the big blind folds, and the regular calls. There's $99 in the pot with $258 behind. What does your opponent's range look like? Here's the regular's reference preflop open-limping range [44-22 A7s-A2s, KTs-K9s, JTs-54s, QTs-75s, Q9s-96s A9o-A2o, KJo-K9o, QJo-98o, QTo] Let's add the fringe hands 77-55 to this range to allow for the possibility that this player flopped a set of sixes. Remember, the hand ranges we've been using in this book are just approximate reference ranges. In practice, you will have to add and subtract hands from these ranges to account for how specific opponents play. Which of these hands fit a K♠T♥6♠ flop? [66 A6s, KTs-K9s, JTs-65s, QTs-86s, Q9s, T7s-96s, As7s, As5s-As2s, 5s4s, 7s5s, Js8s A6o, KJo-K9o, QJo-98o, QTo] On this reasonably coordinated flop, a big chunk of your opponent's limping range will fit the flop. Notice how nearly all of the connected hands made either a pair or a gutshot on this flop. Let's divide this range into strong and weak fits. For strong fits, we have [66 KTs-K9s, As7s, As5s-As2s, JsTs-8s7s, QsTs-9s7s, Qs9s, Ts7s KJo-K9o, QJo] and for weak fits [A6s, JTs-65s, QTs-86s, Q9s, T7s-96s (excluding the strong fits), 5s4s, 7s5s, Js8s A6o, JTo-98o, QTo] The weak fits on this flop are mainly three types of hands: flopped pairs lower than top pair, gutshots, and small flush draws. The strong fits are top pair or better, nut flush draws, and combo draws (straight and flush draws and pair plus flush draws). As you can see, the strong fits and weak fits are fairly evenly split. Because there are so many weak fits, the turn card will strongly influence how often your oppponent calls the turn. Say the turn card comes 2♣. How many of the weak fit hands does this card improve? None of them. If you were to bet $70 (into $99) on this turn, I'd expect your opponent to fold a good percentage of the time. How about a K♣ on the turn? Same story. None of the weak fits have improved, and I'd expect a good number of folds. How about the 5♠? Now we have some improvement. Specifically, the following weak fit hands have improved: 65s and J♠8♠. You could also consider 87s (not spades) having improved, since it picked up an open-ended straight draw, but this is an example where the improvement might not be enough to get a turn call. And 5♠4♠ and 7♠5♠ disappeared from the range since the 5♠ appeared on the board. But wait, you say, didn't every flush draw just improve? Sure. But because of the connected nature of the flop, nearly every flush draw in our opponent's range qualified as a strong fit. They were either nut flush draws, straight and flush combo draws, or pair plus flush draw combos. While the flush card improved the overall strength of your opponent's range, most of the weak fit hands didn't improve. Thus, the 5♠ might be a decent card to bluff, especially if you held a hand with outs such as A♠J♣. How about the 9♦ on the turn? That would make the board K♠T♥6♠9♦. This card improves most of the weak fit hands. 87s improves to a straight. T9 (offsuit and suited) and 96s improve to two pair. JT, 98, 76s, QT, J9s-86s, Q9s, and T7s all improve to a pair plus a gutshot. J♠8♠ and 7♠5♠ improve to combo draws. Only a few of the weak fits didn't improve: A6, 65s, and 5♠4♠. Since this card improves so many hands, if you bet the turn you should expect at least a call. Tip No. 15. Turn cards that are lower than the lowest board card and turn cards that pair the board improve relatively few hands. Turn cards that put three cards to a straight on board (e.g., a 9 on a KT6 flop) improve many more hand combos. In the above example, the 9 improved so many hands becuase it connects with both the KT on the flop and the T6 on the flop to make three to a straight. Thus, both JT and 76 improve to a pair plus gutshot. Cards like a Q or a 7 would also improve a number of hands, but not quite as many as the 9. Exercise No. 10. Write out which of the weak fit hands improve on a Q♥ turn. Do the same for a 7♥ turn. Recategorizing the Strong and Weak Fits In the last section, we looked at different turn cards and saw which ones improved the flopped weak fits. The weak fits that improved, along with the flopped strong fits, become the hand range your opponent can have after calling the turn. We can now take that turn range and divide it again into strong and weak fits. In this case, a strong fit is a hand that your opponent is likely to take to showdown on most river cards. A weak fit is one that your opponent is likely to fold on the river without improvement. All pure drawing hands on the turn, even big combo draws, are weak fits. If your opponent doesn't improve, he's likely to fold to a river bet. Pair plus draw hands can be strong or weak fits depending on how strong the pair is and how likely the player is to pay off with any pair. Top pair hands can also be strong or weak fits on the turn. Top pair with a big kicker is usually a strong fit. Top pair with a mediocre or no kicker is a strong fit for some players, but nittier players will often fold a bad kicker on the river. Two pair or better should usually be considered a strong fit. Let's look back at the last hand example with the K♠T♥6♠ flop and the 9♦ on the turn. Since nearly every weak fit hand improved, we said an opponent would fold very few hands on the turn. But how many of these improved hands are now strong fits, and how many are weak ones? Here's the hand range that calls (or raises) a turn bet. [66 KTs-K9s, JTs-76s, QTs-86s, Q9s, T7s-96s, As7s, As5s-As2s, Js8s KJo-K9o, QJo-98o, QTo] Here are the strong fits. [66 KTs-K9s, T9s, 87s KJo-K9o, QJo, T9o] And the weak fits. [JTs, 98s, 76s, QTs-86s, Q9s, T7s-96s, As7s, As5s-As2s, Js8s JTo, 98o, QTo] Exercise No. 11. Count the number of strong fit hand combos and the number of weak fit combos. Remember to account for the cards that are on the K♠T♥6♠9♦ board and remove any combinations that include those cards. If you complete the above exercise, you'll see that there are more weak fit hands than there are strong fit hands. This is commonly the case when you have a turn card like the 9♦ that improves a large percentage of the weak fits from the flop. A single card can improve a wide range of hands, but it can't clobber that whole range. Lots of the improvements will be marginal and improve the flop weak fit only to a turn weak fit. In this case, the 9♦ improved many of the gutshot and second/third pair hands on the flop to a gutshot plus a pair on the turn. This brings us to a key strategic insight. Say you have air on the turn. Bluffing the 9♦ on the turn, planning to give up on the river if called, would be madness. We already showed that your turn bet will get called the vast majority of the time. But bluffing the 9♦ on the turn, planning to bluff all-in on most river cards, is not nearly as mad. Because more than half of your opponent's turn range consists of weak fits, you can expect the river bluff to succeed quite often. Here's a simplified example of the situation to show you how it works. The pot on the turn is $100. You and your opponent have $220 behind. You have complete air. You bet $70 on the turn, and your opponent calls you 100 percent of the time. On the river you bet your last $150, and your opponent calls you 40 percent of the time (with strong turn fits). Is this series of bluffs profitable? You win a $170 pot 60 percent of the time. The other 40 percent of the time, you lose your $220 in bluffs. Thus, on average you win EV = 0.6 (+170) + 0.4 (-220) = 102 - 88 = +$14. You win $14 on average every time you execute this series of bluffs. It's a winner even though your turn bluff literally never works! What if you decided to wuss out on the river and give up after getting called on the turn? In that case, you'd lose $70 on average. Huge difference. This is an absolutely critical situation in no-limit hold'em. Once you get the basics of no-limit down, the next step is to learn how to amp up the aggression. Most players do this gradually. First players start continuation betting more flops. Then they start following up their flop continuation bets sometimes with turn barrels. Many players never really get beyond this stage. But good players start looking for situations to fire bluffs on the flop, turn, and river. The players in the middle, the ones who fire the turn but not so much the river, are the ones who get bitten the worst in the above situation. They bluff the 9♦ on the turn, but when they get called, they don't have the guts to shove the river. Their reluctance to bluff the river costs then $84. They'd be much, much better off in this scenario if they never bet the turn at all. Tip No. 16. Learn to recognize situations where bluffing just the turn is throwing money away, but where bluffing the turn and river together can be profitable. These situations frequently occur when the turn card improves most of the flop weak fits to turn weak fits. Notice how not bluffing at all and bluffing the turn and river are fairly close in EV ($14 versus $0) while bluffing just the turn is much worse (-$70). As you learn to identify and handle this situation, first make sure you avoid the really bad option. That alone gets you 80 percent of the value. As your hand reading improves, you'll be able to find the very best option more and more often. One final point about this situation. You want to bluff most river cards, but not all of them. To decide whether to bluff a river card or not, count how many of the turn weak fits have improved. If few of them have improved, bluff. If many have improved, however, then you're toast, and you just have to give up (and eat the loss of your turn bet). The decision to run the bluffing line or to give up on the turn often hinges on this consideration. If most river cards are safe to bluff, then frequently the bluffing line is better. But if many river cards are going to stop you from bluffing, then usually you just have to give it up on the turn. Hand Reading In Action Here's a hand I played at $2-$5 in Las Vegas that illustrates this principle. My opponent in this hand has $1,000, and I have him covered. My opponent in this hand is a nit. But he plays a bit more loosely preflop than our prototypical nit, and he uses a bit of hand reading to inform his play. I have K♦J♦ and open from three off the button for $20. The opponent described above calls on the button, and both players call from the blinds. The pot is $80. The flop comes 9♦9♣5♦ giving me a big flush draw. The blinds check to me, and I bet $40. The nit calls on the button, and the blinds fold. The pot is $160. The turn is the 6♥. I bet $85. My opponent calls. The river is the 2♥. I look at the final board for a moment, 9♦9♣5♦6♠2♥, and decide it doesn't afford many credible bluffs, so I give up and check. My opponent tables 7♦6♦ for a pair of sixes. Yuck. I fell into a common trap in this hand. Normally when you flop a flush draw and two overcards, it gives you license to play aggressively on the flop and turn. The chance you win the pot immediately plus the chance you improve makes pushing the hand profitable.  The problem in this hand was the specific turn card. My opponent has a few weak fit possibilities on this flop: 87, 86, 76, 88, 77, 66, 65, 75, and so forth. These hands have all improved on the turn. There are very few hands that my opponent would have called with on the flop that he's folding on this turn card. On the other hand, he could have a number of weak hands on the turn: sixes, fives, pocket pairs 88 and lower, and the like. These are hands I could conceivably get him to fold on a blank river. Therefore, this hand is a situation where I should either fire the turn and river, or I should check the turn. Since my opponent is so likely to call the turn, even with my big flush draw I'm just throwing money away betting the turn and giving up on a blank river. Because my opponent was a bit on the nitty side, had position on me, and caught a good turn card for his hand range, I probably should have checked the turn. But more importantly, on the turn I should have looked beyond my own cards and seen the bigger picture. Scare Cards I said before that a turn card either improves your opponent or it doesn't. But it's slightly more complicated than that. Cards that don't improve your opponent also fall into two categories: bricks and scare cards. You're probably familiar with the distinction. A brick is a card that doesn't improve the hands your opponent might suspect that you have. A scare card is one that your opponent might fear because it could have improved some of your hands. Fear is the operative word for many no-limit players. Most of your opponents in small-stakes games don't use the process described in this book to try to read your hand. They do try to read your hand. They're just not systematic about it. They try to guess hands you could have, and often their perceptions are colored by their emotions. They think of hands they're worried you could have. Or they think of hands they hope you have. Thus, whether a card is truly a scare card for your opponents depends strongly on their personalities. One player will see the third club fall and think, "Just my luck, the flush just got there. Damn it, drawn out on again." Another will see the third club and think, "That's ok, no one's got the flush. I can represent it." Pay Attention. Pay attention to how your opponents react to potentially scary cards. Some will recoil in horror every time any remotely threatening card appears. You'll see them check or meekly call with good hands. You'll often see them physically react to the card in a negative way. And often they'll say something either during or after the hand about how the card affected them. Other players will proceed full steam ahead into scary cards, often professing surprise after the hand when an opponent shows up with a hand they should have considered. This is largely a personality difference and therefore will remain fairly consistent for a player across sessions. Good hand readers use the process described in this book to assess scare cards. They count how many hands have improved and how many haven't to determine exactly how scary the card might be. Of course good hand readers have emotions too, and their thoughts may be clouded a bit sometimes, but these players have the numbers to fall back on and are less easily manipulated. If you play small-stakes live no-limit, you'll encounter very few good hand readers. These players inhabit the higher stakes live games ($10-$20 blinds and above) and the tougher online games (roughly $1-$2 blinds and above). Scare cards turn strong fits into weak fits in your opponent's mind. Your opponent has A♠A♣ and catches a Q♥T♥6♠ flop. This is a strong fit for nearly all players. When the turn comes the 7♥, however, some players may become willing to fold before going to the felt. Thus, the hand becomes a weak turn fit due to the scare card. Had the turn come the 5♦ instead, the hand would have stayed a strong turn fit. Moreover, the same player may not be nearly as afraid of the 9♦ on the turn, even though it's a card that's sure to have improved nearly every hand his opponents are likely to hold. Fear is a fickle thing. Some players fear flushes and not straights. It's your job to figure out which sorts of cards are scary to your opponents and which ones aren't as scary. You do this by watching every single hand, not just the ones you're in. Don't worry, you won't have to wait long to get useful information. Potentially scary cards show up nearly every hand, and small stakes players aren't shy about letting you know what they think of these cards. They'll fold hands face-up, a dead giveaway that they consider the board to have gotten scary. They'll complain about the cards that come, they'll complain about the dealer, and so forth. Watch. All that information is extremely useful. It may seem like way too much to keep information to keep track of, to keep mental notes on every player at your table. But once you get the hang of it, it's no big deal. Some opponents are more important than others. The fish to your right who plays every hand is about ten times more important than the nit across the table who plays only one hand every two orbits. The fish is going to be in every pot you play, while you could go the whole night and never tangle with the nit. If you struggle to keep track of everything, devote your mental energy to the most important opponents. And always remember that it's to your benefit that your opponents read hands according to the whims of their emotional state. They'll be scared of cards that they shouldn't, and they'll ignore critical cards that make your hand. This gets your big hands paid and lets you get away with bluffs that shouldn't work. Better opponents are harder to read and much harder to manipulate. So be thankful for every donkey at your table. Back to scare cards. There are four major classes of scare cards. 1. Overcards 2. Flush cards 3. Straight cards 4. Board pairs An overcard is a potential scare card for someone with top pair or a small overpair. If the flop comes T84, a turn K can be scary for anyone holding a ten or pocket jacks or queens. For players holding one of these hands, higher cards are generally scarier, with the ace being the ultimate scary overcard.  An overcard can often convince someone who had a strong flop fit to mentally demote their hand to a weak turn fit (meaning, again, that they'll call the turn but consider folding to a sizable river bet absent improvement). Sometimes it can convince someone to fold top pair outright. Say a regular holds JT on a J93 flop. An ace comes on the turn, and you make a large bet. The very scary ace combined with the large bet could convince the regular to play it safe. Notice that a K or Q on the turn would have improved JT to a pair plus straight draw. These cards almost certainly wouldn't have induced a fold on the turn. Remember, however, that a card can be scary only if it doesn't improve your opponent's hand. It's easy to look at an ace on the turn and think, "Ha, scare card! I bet." But that's not enough. What if your opponent's range is rich with hands that are improved by the ace? This happens fairly frequently. Scare cards turn strong fits into weak fits. But they can also turn flopped weak fits into strong turn fits through improvement. Stick to the hand reading process as I've described it. Count the strong fits and the weak fits. That will tell you which scare cards to bet and which ones should be scaring you. Exercise No. 12. A nit limps in, and two players limp behind. The small blind calls, and you check your big blind. The flop comes J♥6♥5♣. You bet the pot, and the nit calls. The other players fold. The turn is the A♥. What hands are in your opponent's range on the turn? Which of these hands were weak fits on the flop and improved to strong fits on the turn? Which of these hands may have been strong fits on the flop, but are now weak fits due to the scary turn card? Remember that nits typically play out of fear of losing a large pot. They therefore often react in fear of potentially scary cards. Flush and straight cards can be scare cards for obvious reasons. One big difference between them is that, for whatever reason, no one ever misses the third flush card coming on board, but players frequently miss a card that could make someone a straight. Straight cards also create many more credible redraws making them less scary on average. Say a player has the A♦4♠. The flop comes A♠J♦9♠. The turn is the Q♠. The turn card is a scary one that is likely to have improved many drawing hands. The player has a redraw, the 4♠, but it's a weak one. Even if a spade came on the river, most players know that the 4♠ could still easily be beaten.  Now say a player has A♦T♠. The flop comes A♠J♦9♣. The turn is the Q♥. This is still a scary turn card that improves many hands. But it's also improved the player with AT to an open-ended straight draw. A king gives this player the nuts, and an eight gives him the second-nuts. This happens commonly with straight cards. The card may have made someone a straight, but it also allows the other players in the hand to hang hopes on their own one card straight draws. Board pairs are sometimes scary and sometimes not. For someone holding AA on a KT2 flop, a king on the turn is much scarier than a 2. Players holding top pair are frequently scared of the middle card pairing. Players with less than top pair, on the other hand, often aren't scared when the top card pairs. Exercise No. 13. Two regulars limp in, and you make it $15 to go from the small blind with A♠A♣. The first regular folds, and the second calls. The flop comes K♠T♥7♠. You bet $30, and your opponent calls. The turn is the K♣. What percentage of your opponent's range has improved to beat you? Now the turn is the T♣. What percentage has improved to beat you? What about for the 7♣? Earlier in the book I said that you wouldn't have to go through all these hand range calculations at the table for every turn of the card and every check or bet. I said there would be shortcuts. Doing these exercises will help you to develop the mental shortcuts. What does pairing the board mean for a "typical" hand range that calls the flop? If you did the above exercise, you now know. Sure, the answer is slightly different depending on exactly what cards are on the flop and exactly what type of opponent you're up against. But you have a baseline. You don't need to recalculate it at the table. Just tweak it. Even if you don't tweak it just right, no big deal. You still will have a big leg up on your opponents who are just working by instinct and emotion. You get good at hand reading (and consequently at no-limit hold'em) by working away from the table. Work through the exercises in this book and remember the answers. If you play a hand that gives you trouble, write it down. Then when you get home, work through it. Write down hand ranges for your opponents at each point in the hand. Consider different turn and river cards. What happens to your opponents' hand ranges in each case? If you put in this work away from the table, then your instincts while you play will be much, much better. You won't have to think hard in every pot. You'll just know the answers. In a later chapter I'll talk a little more about working away from the table, and I'll recommend some software tools to help you. A Sample Turn Thought Process Here's what you should be thinking about when you have the initiative and the turn card hits. What types of hands called you on the flop. Which of these hand types improved on the turn. Which ones might have been scared by the turn. What river cards generally improve your opponent's hand range. What river cards favor you. It's a $2-$5 game. Everyone has $500 or more behind. A regular limps in, and you make it $25 to go from two off the button. The button calls, the big blind calls, and the regular calls. The flop comes Q♥J♣7♣. Everyone checks to you, and you bet $65 into the $102 pot. The button and big blind fold, and the regular calls. Let's put the regular on a hand range. Instead of using the bracket notation, however, we'll just talk about hand types he could have. This is how you can think about things during a hand. He could have a queen or a jack. He could have a seven also, but he might fold that hand since the betting is already getting big, and a queen and jack on board should be scary to a regular holding just a pair of sevens.  He likely doesn't have an unimproved pocket pair. To have AA or KK, he would have had to limp in, then fail to reraise your preflop raise, then fail to bet or raise again on the flop. This is unlikely. Pocket pairs TT-88 are consistent with this player's play, though most players would simply fold these hands on this unfavorable flop. The small pairs are quite unlikely for the same reason. He could have an open-ended straight draw or a flush draw. He could possibly have a gutshot. However the betting is getting big already, and many regulars know to fold a hand like 9♠8♠ on this flop for a bet of more than 10 percent of their stack. Then there are the big hands. He could have two pair (particularly QJ) or a set. The big sets are relatively unlikely because, with QQ or JJ, I would expect most regulars to have found a raise either preflop or on this flop. Finally we have big draws. Hands like A♣T♣ and T♣8♣ hit this flop hard. Many players would bet or raise them on the flop, but many wouldn't, so these hands are certainly possible. Most other holdings are quite unlikely. Regulars don't just call off $25 preflop and $65 postflop without having a reasonable piece of the flop. To summarize, this is what we have our opponent on so far: A queen A jack Two clubs KT or T9 Possibly QJ or 77 Possibly a combo draw (straight plus flush draw or top pair plus flush draw) Possibly TT-88  Possibly a gutshot with an overcard like AK or AT Occasionally QQ or JJ Occasionally a weak gutshot (e.g., 98) Occasionally Q7 or J7 Occasionally AA or KK The holdings high on the list are completely consistent with all of our opponent's actions (limp, call, and call). The "possibly" holdings require our opponent to have chosen to call over another reasonable play (e.g., raising QJ and folding 88). The "occasionally" holdings require our opponent to have made an improbable decision (e.g., limping QQ and not raising it on the flop, calling with a weak gutshot on the flop). Let's look at different turn cards. How does the 5♦ change our opponent's range? The only hands in his range that are improved by the 5♦ after the Q♥J♣7♣ flop would be a club draw that includes the 5♣, Q5, or J5. The club draw is a possibility, while Q5 and J5 are less likely because regulars generally fold these weak hands preflop. Does the 5♦ scare any of the hands in our opponent's range? He won't be happy to see that card if he holds any of the drawing hands. Bricking a draw on the turn cuts its value significantly. A big turn bet may force him to fold a draw. On the other hand, if he has any of the made hands, particularly those top pair or better, a turn brick on this draw-heavy board will be a welcome sight. Holding a jack he may be roughly indifferent to the 5♦ because with that weak pair he won't know if he's drawing or if he holds the best hand. Therefore, after a turn 5♦, expect him to be more willing to fold his drawing hands, willing to fold a jack, and less willing to fold his made hands top pair and better. Furthermore, drawing hands and jacks make up a good percentage of his total hand range.  If you bet the turn and he calls, expect him to have mostly queens with some drawing hands. Therefore, another brick will generally improve your opponent's range. An ace or king would be quite scary to your opponent unless he has AQ or KQ respectively. A club would likely also scare your opponent, though he would still have a few flush draws in his range after calling the turn. All-in-all, the deck divides roughly evenly into "safe" and "scary" river cards, and you have uncertainty, depending on whether your opponent has a queen or a draw, which ones are good for you and which ones aren't. The 5♦ isn't the only possible turn brick. Any non-club 6 or lower is roughly equivalent to the 5♦ in this scenario. How about the 7♦? This card connects with the board, making it Q♥J♣7♣7♦, but if you look at the range that we've posited for your opponent, it almost never improves his hand. If you're an aggressive player (the sort who raises preflop sometimes holding a 7), your opponent has to worry that you might have improved. The 7♦ would also make most regulars more willing to fold a draw on the turn, since draws lose value on paired boards. How about the A♦? That's a card that shakes things up a bit. It improves AQ, AJ, KT, and any ace-high club draw. It also improves the possible hands AK and AT. Furthermore, it gives KQ, KJ, QT, and JT gutshots to go with their pairs. Finally, it improves king-high and ten-high flush draws to combo draws (flush plus gutshot draw). It's obviously a scare card to any queen or jack, particularly those with kickers below ten (i.e., those that don't have a straight draw to fall back on). It's a bad card for a small flush draw. Overall, unless your opponent frequently limps and calls preflop raises with hands like J8 and Q4, this is a fairly good card for his range. It improves a lot of his possible hands and truly scares relatively few of them. If you were to bet the turn and get called, it would be nearly impossible to know which river cards are good for you and which ones aren't. He could be calling because he hit the ace (and has no intention of folding). He could be calling with an ace-high flush draw (and therefore not fear a club river). He could be calling with a pair plus gusthot hand like KQ, so you don't know if a K or T is scary or makes his hand.  The ace, therefore, is a poor card to bluff. It improves a lot of your opponent's turn range, and his range is well-distributed between big made hands, club draws (mostly combo draws now), and pair plus gutshot hands, so you don't know which river cards would be worth bluffing. A turn king presents a similar situation, though aces tend to hit a few more hands than kings do. An offsuit ten, nine, or eight on the turn improves a few hands on this Q♥J♣7♣ flop. The ten improves the most hands: QT and JT improve to two pair, KQ, KJ, AQ, AJ, Q9, J9, and Q8, J8 improve to a pair plus a straight draw. The open-ended straight draws KT and T9 "improve" by pairing, but this is really a false improvement in most cases. AK improves to a straight, and AT improves to a pair plus gutshot. A few more offbeat hands improve also. TT improves to trips, and 98 improves to a straight. Nines and eights improve most of the same hands, but if you go through them all you'll see that these cards don't improve quite as many hands, and the improvement is often not quite as strong. On the other hand, tens, nines, and eights are not particularly scary cards for many hands in your opponent's range. An opponent might be wary that you made a straight with one of these cards, but they don't rate to truly scare many players. An eight plays somewhat similarly to a brick (6 or lower) on the river, while a ten plays more similarly to the ace and king. A nine is in the middle. Note that these cards (particularly the eight and nine) would hit your opponent's range harder if the flop bet had not been so large. If you had bet $30 into $102 on the flop instead of $65, you would expect more hands including a 7 to call the flop (e.g., 97 and 87) and more gutshots around the J and 7 to call. By betting large on the flop, you weed out some of the smaller hands. Then we have the offsuit queens and jacks. On the Q♥J♣7♣ flop, a jack obviously improves all your opponent's jacks. It scares nearly everything else. Draws don't like it when the board pairs, and top pairs don't like it when the middle card pairs. If you were to bet a turn jack and get called, you could expect your opponent's range on the river to be heavy with queens, with jacks somewhat less likely (because the second jack on board reduces the number of hand combos including a jack, and because