2.2Rising Power and the Emerging Global Order [Autosaved].pptx

Foreign Policy of Emerging Powers: POL 336 “Rising powers and the Emerging Global Orders” Andrew Hurrell Dr. Ornanong Husna Benbourenane Professor of Practice CHSS, Zayed University International System & International Order • The International Order is defined as the body of rules, norms, and...

Foreign Policy of Emerging Powers: POL 336 “Rising powers and the Emerging Global Orders” Andrew Hurrell Dr. Ornanong Husna Benbourenane Professor of Practice CHSS, Zayed University International System & International Order • The International Order is defined as the body of rules, norms, and institutions that govern relations between the key players on the international stage in the international system. • Today, this body includes a nexus of global institutions, such as the United Nations and the World Trade Organization; bilateral and regional security organizations; and liberal political norms (such as human rights) New Int’l Order? “Rising powers and the Emerging Global Orders” Andrew Hurrell Over the last decade, Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, the ASEAN states, and Mexico have experience significant economic development. The 2007/8 financial crisis underscored the shift in relative economic weight • Having a greater economic share of the world market + feeling that they deserve a greater political say in the international community and the global order. Emerging powers • Cooperation among the emerging powers to push forward their own agenda. “A shared voice is stronger than a single voice” • The Southern multilateralism led by today’s emerging and regional powers : to put the idea of the global South firmly back on the political and intellectual map. Definition: Emerging Powers Andrew Hurrell ‘Rising powers and the emerging global order’ * 01 02 03 The term ‘Emerging powers’ recognizes the growing economic, political, and strategic status of a group of nations. Most of the EPs were once categorized as part of the ‘third world’ or ‘global south’. Often used to include countries such as the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa). Also extending to Indonesia, Mexico, Argentina, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, and Turkey. . From G5 to G 20 Top 5 economies in 2022: US, China, Japan, Germany, India The term ‘rising powers’ : generally associated with countries that have a clear potential to become great powers, such as China, India, Russia, and Brazil Rising powers The term ‘regional powers’ relies more on physical and material attributes of a country relative to its immediate neighbors Note: all rising powers are also counted as regional power 2001 Goldman Sachs termed BRIC-Brazil, Russia, India, and China : potential of the ‘emerging market economies’ *2010 South Africa join BRICS BRIC – Economic powers Over the next ten years, BRIC contributed over a third of world GDP growth and has grown from a sixth of world economy to a quarter. Nevertheless, before the Covid-19 pandemic, China and India were growing steadily today, Russia and Brazil had gone in the opposite direction. MIST and ‘breakout nations’ The next tier of large emerging economies; Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea and Turkey MINT - new emerging countries with the best growth outlooks in the future of the world economy; Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, Turkey • BRICS = BRIC + South Africa • Basic = Brazil, South Africa, India, China (2010) • BRICSAM = BRIC + South Africa + Mexico • Key point reference: membership in G-20 Deciding a membershi p in ‘clubs’ • The Group of Twenty (G20) is the premier forum for its members in international economic cooperation and decision-making. • Its membership comprises 19 countries plus the European Union. • Each G20 president invites several guest countries each year. • Who are in the 20? • https://databank.worldbank.org/data/download/GNI.pdf • http://g20.org.tr/about-g20/ https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2010/jan/12/copen hagen-climate-change BRIC 1 2 The BRIC thesis recognizes that Brazil, Russia, India and China have changed their economic systems to embrace global capitalis Goldman Sachs predicts that China and India, respectively, will become the dominant global suppliers of manufacture goods and services, while Brazil and Russia will become similarly dominant 3 Cooperation is thus hypothesized to be a logical next step among the BRIC 4 Of the four countries, Brazil is the only country that has the capacity to continue all elements, meaning manufacturing, services and resource supplying China 2010, report from Goldman Sachs: China might surpass the United States in equity market total value by 2030 and become the single largest equity market in the world. Together, the four BRICs may account for 41% of the world's market capitalization by 2030. In late 2010, China surpassed Japan's GDP for the first time, with China's GDP standing at $5.88 trillion compared to Japan's $5.47 trillion. China thus became the world's second-largest economy after the United States. For the year 2013, China for the first time surpassed $4 trillion of world trade and become as world's largest trading country, consist of: export $2.21 trillion and import $1.95 trillion. China https://mgmresearch.com/china-vs-united-s tates-a-gdp-comparison/ There is a great deal of uncertainty about who’s up and who’s down in contemporary global politics. The many questions. A. Dose the diffusion of power and the complexity of global politics undermine the prospect for a repetition of the US hegemonic reassertion? Explain and present an example to substantiate your position. B. What are the emerging powers’ attributes, behaviors, goals? C. How to evaluate the changing nature of the global order itself? D. What kind of power that matter now, or will come to matter in the future? Three questions/ debates about the emergence of the new powers Rising powers and the Emerging Global Orders” 1. If power is shifting, where exactly is it shifting to and what will they do with their powers? A. To emerging states • Superpower China; India Rising; Brazil Moment B. To many new emerging actors - the result of a general diffusion of power, linked to technological and global economic changes, and social-political mobilization MINT, BRICS, and a multiplicity of new actors, including regional powers and private actors, and transnational groups Andrew Hurrell The result: more voices demanded to be heard globally and domestically. Three questions about emerging powerpowe rs: # 2 2. What power? : A complex concept with many notions. • Relational power (ability to impose its will on others and to resist others to impose their will) • Institutional power - ability to control agenda, to decide what get decided, and exclude those issues which threaten the interests of the most powerful Influencing what actors, in • The hard-softover power: coerciveattracting what period, with respect to what matter? 3. “Power” for what? Three questions about emerging powers • For investment decision? (economic power: Goldman Sach) Why does it matter politically or geopolitically? • Need to be connected with theoretical understanding of world politics Realism and neo-realism Why do rising states matter? Theoretical explanation Power for what? Realist: Rising powers matter because it will lead to a change in international order/ system. material gain – increase/ decrease of relative power acquisition of status-the hierarchy of prestige Structural change (from unipolar to bi/ multipolar) Liberalism – international society-globalization ••Constructivist: Rising states matter not because of material that they possess, but rather because of their unavoidable importance/ roles in solving the global problem – sharing responsibilities. Comparing China and the US • https://mgmresearch.com/china-vs-united-states-a-gdp-co mparison/ • GDP nominal VS GDP PPP • http://statisticstimes.com/economy/gdp-nominal-vs-gdp-pp p.php • GNI-World Bank-2018 • https://databank.worldbank.org/data/download/GNI.pdf • https://data.oecd.org/trade/trade-in-goods.htm Intl trade • https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDPD@WEO/ OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD GDP • https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@ WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD Real GDP Growth China and the West https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ojr-tqaQQOQ America's Fundamental Misunderstanding of China | Kishore Mahbubani • Long Now Foundation • Published on May 10, 2018 • Singaporean diplomat Kishore Mahbubani believes that while the political freedoms in China haven't increased, the personal freedoms of the Chinese people have. From Kishore Mahbubani's Long Now Seminar “Has the West Lost it? Can Asia Save It?”: http://longnow.org/seminars/02018/apr... .