Forecasting Methods PDF
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Uploaded by StrongestAgate2029
Texas A&M University - College Station
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Summary
This document introduces forecasting, its methods, and specific techniques like moving averages and exponential smoothing. It explains the concept of time series and analysis of demand patterns. The document also touches upon the characteristics of forecasts and causal models.
Full Transcript
Forecasting Two main divisions: Characteristics of forecasts: Forecasting Methods Causal Models: we analyze different data than the series we are interested in forecasting Time Series Methods: we use past values of the same series to forecast the same series into t...
Forecasting Two main divisions: Characteristics of forecasts: Forecasting Methods Causal Models: we analyze different data than the series we are interested in forecasting Time Series Methods: we use past values of the same series to forecast the same series into the future Time Series: an ordered sequence of values of a variable at equally spaced time intervals Demand Patterns / Series: (1) Random Series (2) Trend Series (I) Stationary Series (A) Moving Average (MA) Moving average of order N, MA(N) ---> Arithmetic average of the last N observations (B) Exponential Smoothin (ES) Forecast is a weighted average of the previous forecast and the current demand
