Service Quality Excellence in Healthcare (S1-24_HHSMZG615) (4) PDF
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BITS Pilani
SANDEEP KAYASTHA
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Summary
Lecture notes covering demand and capacity in healthcare. Discusses forecasting methods like causal methods and time series analysis. Includes examples and practical applications.
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**L-05 1Sept24 M2 Demand and Capacity** September 1, 2024, 5:00AM 2h 3m 25s **\ SANDEEP KAYASTHA.** started transcription **\ JAGDISH CHANDRA.** 0:16\ Be posted in Takshila also. **\ SANDEEP KAYASTHA.** 0:24\ Good morning everyone.\ Time is 10/30.\ As always,...
**L-05 1Sept24 M2 Demand and Capacity** September 1, 2024, 5:00AM 2h 3m 25s **\ SANDEEP KAYASTHA.** started transcription **\ JAGDISH CHANDRA.** 0:16\ Be posted in Takshila also. **\ SANDEEP KAYASTHA.** 0:24\ Good morning everyone.\ Time is 10/30.\ As always, please confirm on the chat whether audio, video and PPT is OK good morning NITHYA NITHYA from time to OK, Mr Olsen and all he has become regular.\ He has taken, you know, leaving the first two.\ OK. OK.\ Yeah, maybe is OK.\ Where does a class monitored in this lady is not coming?\ OK, they\'re delicious.\ Also joining OK, everything is perfect.\ Great.\ OK, the first person to join today was I think Mr BHATNAGAR from Lucknow.\ OK.\ Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Lecture \#5.\ OK.\ Today\'s a very, very hot, spacious day.\ It is 1st of September.\ OK, so please let me know if you have got the salary.\ Please type Capital S and if you have gotten, if you have not got the salary then please type smallest.\ OK, so salary is there.\ Energy is very, very high.\ Many people have not come today.\ Reason is yes, either capitalist or smallness.\ OK, they have all gone for shopping.\ Most likely that is the reason.\ OK, those who are not having enough money to do you know.\ OK, so otherwise not getting this as of now.\ OK.\ Just so he\'s also not getting JAGDISH is not getting M rose and he\'s getting NITHYA says she has got the salary, you know, very nice safety officer.\ Great.\ OK, so people who are not come, OK, so they are checking in there and uh, checking with their boss the way they are not got the salary.\ OK.\ And those have got the salary.\ They have also not come.\ The reason is that they have gone for shopping.\ Great.\ Alright, in this first September is very, very important.\ OK, I told her WILP so many times.\ But they don\'t listen to me.\ I told them that they you should conduct classes only on 1st so that you know energy is very high.\ Both of the student as well as of the faculty.\ OK.\ And when you do the class on 30th of any month, Student energy is very, very low and also of the faculty.\ OK, great.\ OK, items of interest.\ OK, so quiz one is scheduled.\ OK, Saturday afternoon.\ Evening.\ OK, today afternoon, evening I will upload that quiz on Taxila or what is called elearn.\ Let me see how much we cover and accordingly I\'ll put the questions there.\ Questions are ready that will be done.\ We have done other Lecture, just finished.\ Don\'t give these kind of answers.\ And on.\ This kind of answers don\'t give OK, we have finished, so we should always be the one.\ Next time I\'ll ask WILP to have the first session for me.\ OK, so that nobody can write like this.\ The way this lady has written, we had this.\ Then there will be some other reason.\ Great.\ OK.\ Today\'s session what we are going to do, we have got two sessions today, OK?\ One is morning, which we are holding and there was one which we did not hold on 25th because of the convocation, most of the faculty were involved there.\ So he is here first session and then we\'ll look at E this second session goes there on it also goes there.\ OK, so managing demand and capacity, something which we had started on 18th of August, So what are the various topics and what we are going to cover it is given here we just started that, OK, we said we had looked at the process.\ You have looked at the process.\ We have looked at the activities, OK, but we are not looked at how much load is coming.\ OK, so we did not look at that.\ We only looked at what are the various activities, what sequence?\ OK, who is doing and stuff like that?\ So this is what we had not done and this is what is called demand.\ So how much load is coming?\ That is, what is this chapter about?\ OK.\ And in this chapter, we will also be looking at OK, about capacity, OK, bottlenecks and constraints.\ So these are related to the capacities of that are resources which are doing these things.\ So everything is explained in one.\ Picture on the OK.\ So I\'ll start with forecasting, OK and then we\'ll go to scheduling and then we\'ll look at bottlenecks, OK, so OK.\ And then we look at theory of constraints.\ And I will keep the thing simple.\ I will teach you something.\ OK.\ And a very very simple way and using some complex things which I\'ve not show it to you, but that is what is working behind the scenes.\ OK.\ So let us look at forecasting demand arrivals, OK, admissions, as you may like.\ OK, first please type.\ Is this a matter of concern to you or not?\ Because when I take classes with the store and so are working in manufacturing companies and they say that you know to know what is going to that demand, it is very, very critical for them, OK?\ And they\'re not finding any method by which they can get exact forecast.\ Is it important?\ Ohh it\'s important for you also.\ OK.\ And then that is very good.\ OK, this not Cauchy, so I think she is over opthomologist.\ OK, great.\ So let us look at how do we do.\ OK.\ Then I will also tell you some shortcuts, OK?\ And some people who are doing all this data analytics, AI, ML and all that.\ OK.\ Yeah.\ Everything I will do it in one slide and without doing any mathematics or anything but more or less you will not get as good as them, but you will be very, very close to them.\ OK, great.\ So what are the various methods of forecasting?\ Can you type?\ OK, make a guess.\ If you do not know OK, or if you have studied in any course earlier, please type what are the various methods of forecasting you might have done in a course on managerial economics?\ Also, trend analysis.\ OK.\ And that is one.\ MITHUL exponential.\ OK, regression all of you know all these things.\ And then I think we should not do these things, but there OK, great Nair method.\ OK, this is it.\ Nice.\ I know.\ OK.\ Yeah.\ OK, good time series and others.\ OK.\ And deepen.\ Ohh so but there are no slots here than in the open network.\ Don\'t use the word networking.\ Networking is some other meaning.\ You sit deep. Neural networks.\ OK.\ Umm, so we have got there are many many methods out there.\ Many methods are there means if you use different method you get a different forecast, OK and if you use let us say 10 methods you get 10 forecast.\ So actual thing happened will be only one.\ OK, so there are two methods.\ OK, one is causal method, another is time series method.\ Causal method means that it is based on cause and effect.\ And then have it shipped means if sales are going to have one, other patients are going to come or GDP is there an agricultural production is there or stock market is there.\ So if you want to forecast OK for next few periods and then one method is to look at what is the cost and if you are able to establish a relationship between cause and effect, then we should be able to tell what is going to happen.\ OK, there are certain areas in which our understanding of the system is so well, so, well so well that we are able to predict exactly that is what is happening in physics.\ OK.\ So they are able to say when there will be sunrise, when there will be sunset, when there will be eclipse, OK, when there will be Poornima.\ OK, they are able to do that and for hundreds of years in future.\ OK.\ But we are not very fortunate to establish cause and effect.\ OK, suppose so.\ What are the costs?\ OK, suppose you\'re looking at.\ Patients arrival.\ OK, so one could be the price, OK.\ What the fee that you charge?\ OK, if you are buying a TV, one other things obviously is the price, because if price is not there then everything is easy.\ OK, so one is price, second is promotion, OK, whether you are known or not, OK, many times we just do not know.\ OK, Coca Cola everybody knows because our promotion, Despite that everybody knows still we keep on telling Coca Cola, Coca Cola, Coca Cola.\ So one is price, another is promotion, third is is by which person can reach you.\ OK, so if it is available everywhere, people will take pizza.\ If it is not available, they will not take so location nor presence.\ OK, closer to the population, that could also be one of the reasons.\ And if it is an easy thing, then it may not be as much.\ Much if it is not E if it is physical, OK now banking it was physical.\ Now it has become E you may not have visited your bank for a long time, so location is another factor.\ OK.\ Facilities.\ What kind of facilities are there?\ OK, so there there\'s all hospitals.\ Many hospitals are saying specialities super speciality and all those kind of things and tertiary things are that OK and 2nd is how many people are eligible.\ OK, so if they are not eligible, OK, everything else is not going to work on other is a reputation, OK?\ Another is competition.\ What competition is doing?\ So these could be many, many, many many factors, even we may not be able to identify all the factors if we are able to do this OK, it would be great and probably the best.\ This is very very difficult.\ OK, so we make some models and try to do OK instead of taking all many things, we take only one or two factors and we say whether I can get good results.\ So that is where you do use what is called a regression, and that is what?\ OK, some lady has written OK and that we have used a regression, so regression is essentially towards cause and effect.\ OK, so you write a.\ Why is equal to a plus BX plus BX?\ Kind of thing to keep it simple, I plus BX.\ OK, if you want you can add X1X2X3 also.\ So if there is only one, OK, let us say price.\ OK, so we try to say if my price is this then what will be that that is called causal methods.\ Second method is called time Series time series means we do not look at why something is happening.\ OK.\ Just we do not.\ We are just not concerned about anything like this, OK.\ And we know cause and effect.\ Why it is happening?\ We don\'t know whether I\'m able to make a good forecast.\ That is, what is the thing?\ OK, looks very surprising, but it is Delphi method.\ OK, this lady from Pune.\ OK, so delivery method is also there.\ OK, that is closer to causal methods.\ OK, even though you know people are discussing, so no cause and effect.\ OK, so it is based on historical data.\ Ohh, we look at history.\ If history is not there, this method cannot be used.\ Simple thing, so history is required.\ Larger the history.\ Better it could be and it something it need.\ So Statical data is called time series and let us look at one time series data.\ So time series data means.\ So we have got time on the X axis and we have got on the Y axis OK on the Y axis we have got something.\ So we look at that data and we spend at least 15 minutes on a graph.\ Many times, you know, people spend only one minute or less than one minute on a graph.\ OK, you should take a graph.\ Take a print out.\ Put it there.\ Close your eyes.\ OK, you should be able to make very similar to that.\ Then you have to think very deep, deep, deep.\ OK.\ Then you will start getting the juice.\ OK.\ Otherwise, many people have seen they don\'t spend time at all.\ They think, you know I\'ve got it.\ So here is the time so that time that is available to us, you would notice and that data is available to us after five years.\ OK.\ If you look at those dots, both on data is available for 2004, OK, every every year.\ OK, 2004 2005, 678-910-1112 like that that data is there.\ This data is about that deaths in the hospital.\ OK.\ And this data is how many admissions are there.\ So can we use this historical data too make forecast?\ So today I will focus only on time series methods.\ OK.\ Very quickly, without doing any calculation.\ OK, I would be able to tell you something more.\ OK, there are very methods out there.\ OK, even though it is time series method, OK some this lady from?\ But Vendran, she says.\ OK, name method.\ OK, so there are various methods are there within the time series OK within the time series many methods are there OK so.\ Umm.\ Depending upon OK, your knowledge of the system and OK what kind of behavior is there, we will be able to do the forecasting.\ OK, so when we have got this data like this.\ OK.\ Then we have got this data like this.\ OK.\ What we say is this and data is made up of few things and this is our model.\ So we have got this data which you have seen few minutes back.\ There are none other.\ OK.\ And this is a dehydration case.\ This and this is corner right, OK.\ And I please don\'t ask me to pronounce this OK, otherwise I will become MBBS mana by very difficult to announce.\ I will not do that.\ This is another data coming here.\ So all these three graphs are time series data, OK?\ And you are asked, OK can you make your forecast for here?\ Can you make your forecast for this period OK?\ Can you make forecast for this period?\ Can you make 4 plus for this period? **\ SUBHADRA K.T..** 15:33\ Yeah. **\ SANDEEP KAYASTHA.** 15:33\ Can you make forecast for this period?\ So that is what is the question.\ OK, so by using common sense also you will be able to do that.\ What people are doing using very sophisticated models?\ OK, so you may not get what they are getting.\ What you do very, very close to them, OK, without doing all that.\ Because I find OK many people are not using all the techniques which we are teaching.\ OK.\ And our focus tends to be on calculation and he just gives up, OK, what is common sense first, OK, so let us go ahead and see.\ Ohh so we are getting this then what we say is that a time series.\ OK, it is composed of OK 3-4 things, so it is composed of three things.\ This is also composed of those three things that is also composed of those three things.\ It is also composed of those three things.\ It is composed of those three things.\ What are those?\ OK, so this particular time series can be considered to be composed of three things.\ One is called a trend.\ OK, trend looks like this and I will show you some more here.\ So essentially it is either increase or decrease.\ OK, then it is increase or decrease OK without any fluctuations, OK.\ And the second is time series is composed now.\ I told you it has got three ingredients.\ OK.\ And just like you make tea.\ OK, so water is there.\ Tea leaves?\ Are there sugar?\ Is there milk?\ Is there OK and different proportion you can get, you know different test of that same thing is here by having different proportion on this trained and this this is called cycle.\ OK.\ And it is also called seasonality.\ OK.\ So seasonal cycle means it is repeating going up and down, up and down, up and down, up and down, up and down, up and down.\ OK, so either you can call it cycle or you can call it as seasonality.\ OK.\ So seasonality has got very special meaning.\ OK, cycle is a very general term which is used by scientist and by umm mathematicians.\ Also, seasonality is Tom which is used by economists. **\ SUBHADRA K.T..** 17:55\ Telling you that. **\ SANDEEP KAYASTHA.** 17:58\ OK, Mr Barlow said.\ What you are doing?\ Uh, you know, still little sis.\ I don\'t think I should do that.\ OK.\ Are there also in the first class?\ Also, one lady had helped me to do that, which I\'ve forgotten.\ OK, so we have got this seasonality.\ So what is seasonality?\ Seasonality is a cycle, OK.\ If it is within a year, OK, if it is within a year, OK.\ If that repetition OK is less than one year, that is called seasonality.\ Suppose it is 6 months.\ It is called seasonality.\ If it is equal to 1 then also we call it seasonality.\ If it is every month, the way you get the salary.\ OK, so it is a monthly and it could be weekly.\ It could be daily also.\ OK, so all these are generally seasonality and if it is more than one, OK, if it is more than one year, which are very unlikely to be found.\ OK, so that is called only cycles, but these are called those cycles which are less than one are called seasonality.\ So third ingredient in our T is called randomness.\ So there is some part of this song, and so it looked like ohh.\ So if somebody ask you what will be the value at 16/17/18?\ No, I don\'t know what will happen, but looks like this is my good guess.\ We don\'t know what will happen.\ It has happened like this.\ There is no guarantee in the end it will happen like that.\ OK, suppose somebody asked what will happen here.\ We don\'t know what will happen.\ A good guess would be OK and then this is what is going to happen.\ OK.\ And if somebody ask you what is going to happen, so it is very uncertain what will happen and that value could be here, that value could be here that value could be here that value could be here.\ So third is called randomness. **\ SUBHADRA K.T..** 19:58\ They.\ What else? **\ SANDEEP KAYASTHA.** 20:02\ OK. **\ SUBHADRA K.T..** 20:02\ Period.\ OK, I don\'t.\ I don\'t know.\ Like, what do you think? **\ SANDEEP KAYASTHA.** 20:07\ No. **\ SUBHADRA K.T..** 20:08\ Something that\'s OK, alright. **\ SANDEEP KAYASTHA.** 20:09\ You know, can somebody tell me, is it Malayalam or not? **\ SUBHADRA K.T..** 20:14\ Egg. **\ SANDEEP KAYASTHA.** 20:15\ So Badri, is it Malayalam?\ That\'s it right there.\ Says it is good.\ OK, good.\ OK, let us not stop and let us hear what is going on.\ Maybe you know they may exchange their passwords OK, and that might help us. **\ SUBHADRA K.T..** 20:27\ OK. **\ SANDEEP KAYASTHA.** 20:31\ OK, great.\ So let us look at, OK, so this particular thing we have got a equation.\ So that is called.\ Why is equal to A+B OK so B is called, slope is called intercept.\ So for each one we have got the equation for cycle.\ Also we have equation which we have done in class 10th eleven 12th.\ Since you were so scared of these equations, you decided to get into medicine.\ Cannot that you liked medicine?\ Because you did not like these equations.\ If I\'m right, then send some thumbs up.\ OK, then another is the randomness.\ OK, So what we do?\ No, no, it is SUDHA only.\ I did not know it is OK.\ OK.\ OK, OK.\ It is our bad luck that we did not get any passwords OK.\ Great.\ And you\'re good luck.\ OK, so this is random.\ OK, so by mixing these three by mixing these three I can create this by mixing these three.\ I can create this by mixing these three.\ I can create this by mixing these three in different proportions.\ You can create this if you have understood broadly what I have done.\ Please type it.\ Please type it.\ OK, let\'s talk then.\ OK not trend I have written like this OK so I showed you only one trend and there could be many trends which I\'m bringing here so need not to be there you know that it is like this it could be that it is increasing but it is increasing very fast and that is the meaning OK when you put your money in the bank OK it grows like this it does not grow like this OK because of compound interest and grow like this OK and your salary actually grows like this what your boss salary it grows like.\ This OK. That is my guess. OK. So there is another one.\ OK, so it says this is also another trend. OK, this all these are increasing. This is increasing. It is increasing slowly. It is increasing very fast and it is increasing and over a period of time. OK, it is increasing very very slowly. OK as compared to this.\ OK, this is what it increases that it increases very fast and that it increases very slow.\ OK.\ Then we have got another one also they look very same.\ OK.\ But mathematically they are different and in this one I have shown you 123455 cycles, 5 trends and one cycle.\ OK, mixing it in different proportions, we will be able to do the forecast OK, so let us look at the procedure without using mathematics.\ Even I will not use that naive method.\ OK, So what is the procedure?\ So that is not the story.\ Call data if you have understood, please Type 1 deadly trickly all of you on your keyboards, OK keyboard.\ Otherwise your keyboard is getting rested.\ OK, so this is what you should do.\ OK.\ And then second thing I told you is to spend 15 minutes, 15 minutes.\ OK, 15 minutes. 15.\ OK.\ Identify the patterns.\ OK.\ Which means OK identify these things trend is there any trend which I will tell you OK are there any cycles or seasonality OK says cycles and seasonality are same OK so seasonality is generally the word to be used but not randomness OK so we will not be able to forecast exactly OK so we will ignore that randomness but we\'ll try to see OK what is that trend in cycles that data then we will add those to Brandon cycles are seasonality and extended OK we will extend I will do it OK it will take less than 2?\ Minutes if you have understood what is time series forecasting, then you write 3.\ This is all that is there.\ OK, you can use equation.\ What you can do without that also.\ OK, OK, so this is all that is there.\ If you use equation you will be able to get you know more insights but you\'re forecast.\ But to be very close to without that also.\ OK.\ So OK, so there are some tips.\ Do not use this time series forecasting blindly, so some tips are there OK that historical data should be longer than forecast horizon, so if you are asked to forecast, do not forecast for here do not forecast.\ Heres you have got less data and you have forecasting like this.\ This could be dangerous.\ OK, so you should forget only for a few periods.\ OK, maybe 2-3, four kind of things.\ If you have got this kind of data, that is one why I\'m telling you.\ Because I\'ve seen my students.\ OK, they are doing these things.\ OK, so there were some students and they collected data on electric vehicles.\ OK, electric vehicles in Bangalore that is station and that number was I think some 2020 or 200, OK.\ And he has made a forecast for next 20 years.\ And it was like this.\ They more or less OK, so only for some four or five years of data is there, and he\'s making you forecast for next 20 years.\ OK.\ And in this case, he should not have used only time series data.\ OK, so that is, I will tell you get a good and a good fit and not an exact fit.\ OK, so when we are looking at that, is the meaning OK, not randomness?\ OK, do not try to get exact.\ OK, you might be very lucky if you get it correct.\ OK, but generally God is not with you in this case, OK?\ So expect umm OK edits like a not an exact which I will tell you aim for better forecast and not for 100% accuracy no matter which method you use.\ OK, if it is not engineering or physics kind of thing, OK you will not get 100% accuracy.\ Everyone is praying our forecasts are bad.\ Forecasts are bad.\ Forecasts are bad.\ OK, it will be bad.\ What is there?\ OK, OK, your aim should be can I get a better forecast, OK, rather than trying to aim for 100% accuracy.\ OK, so you should ask the question, what is your accuracy of forecast?\ OK.\ Is it 8090% kind of thing?\ Is there or not?\ Rather than saying forecasts are not accurate, last is use your domain knowledge.\ OK.\ And just to because I\'m data is giving you something OK either by using some sophisticated mathematics or by using any other method.\ OK, you also apply your mind whether this is likely to happen or not.\ OK.\ So we said extend it, OK, So what is the meaning of extend? **\ SOWMYA MULPURI.** 27:41\ And. **\ SANDEEP KAYASTHA.** 27:46\ This is the most important thing, because forecasting is what it is.\ Extended extended means that we are expecting.\ OK, historical.\ Patterns to continue.\ If you think historically things have not changed dramatically, OK, then you should use the this method.\ But if you think that something has changed dramatically and then you should not use it, OK you government is giving subsidies on electric vehicles, OK, big subsidies giving all the drawing.\ Then you should expect big change because government is a very big player, OK?\ And they\'ve government has done demonetization.\ OK, for industries which are directly related to that, we should not, you know, simply use that forecast.\ Similarly, if Corona has come OK, do not expect and blindly do this.\ OK, you use the domain knowledge.\ OK, if you have understood please type 4.\ Would you switch from?\ Do you wanna do you wanna?\ I think, yeah. BHUVANESHWARI.\ OK, combination. Is this OK?\ She must have got a lot of salary today because I don\'t.\ Hospital name is like that. Moneyball.\ MONEYI think that\'s weddings are different.\ OK.\ So yeah, let us look at some of these things, OK, plus monitor has come.\ OK, only in the name.\ OK.\ May I request everybody? OK, please.\ Uh, welcome our class monitor.\ Please type W please type W she will feel very happy.\ Sports medicine, please type W.\ OK.\ OK, welcome.\ Yeah.\ Great.\ OK, class monitor, we have been waiting for you.\ OK, let us first look at before we make the forecast OK and data is for 731 days wherever possible.\ OK, searching you know data for uh hospitals, hospital and hospital.\ Great.\ OK, what\'s the left?\ Should be thought.\ Oh, OK.\ Sorry, the data, that\'s what the data whenever you plot, first thing you should look at what is there here.\ OK.\ And this is month of the year.\ So there is 2 years data.\ I did OK as I can see data was probably like this.\ OK.\ Something like this was there.\ This is January.\ This is in December.\ OK, so this is for how many?\ This is for two years.\ Let\'s kind of thing and again we have got a January and December what he has done is he has put this data and taken the average, OK.\ So this is what is there average data is showing OK let us look at the other one.\ As I told you 15 minutes.\ Ohh day of the week.\ OK, day of the week is there.\ OK.\ And day of the week is there ohk.\ OK.\ OK, spend 15 minutes.\ What it means day of the week is there.\ OK, let us see what happens within a day.\ OK.\ Our other day.\ Ohh that\'s very different.\ That is very, very different term.\ Good.\ OK, 15 minutes.\ So we will take 15 minutes for the 1st, 1:15 for 2nd and 15 for the third one.\ Then only you will get the juice.\ OK, so we have got this, but just now we said there are three things.\ One is called trend, second is called cycles and cycles or seasonality.\ 1/3 is called the randomness randomness.\ We will not use for forecasting.\ We with you only using these two.\ I also showed you what kind of trends are there.\ OK.\ OK, let\'s look at this and let us look at this.\ Let us look at this.\ Let us look at this.\ OK, so this data is monthly data.\ OK, So what is it that you are going to expect?\ Any guess what is going to happen in the month of January?\ Everyone OK?\ Please type on your keyboards quickly fast.\ Come with us.\ You know, quickly you do it.\ Why you people are taking so much of time quickly.\ You should be like that.\ You know, emergency doctor, act fast.\ Umm, but you\'re right.\ Some numbers SAVITHA writes some number.\ OK, write some number.\ OK.\ OK, SAVITHA is Singh.\ I will go with the name NAV method.\ OK, she says.\ Whatever happened in the past, that is what his future that is called name method.\ OK, 8080. OK.\ People are close to 80.\ How did you get that?\ OK, if you use some sophisticated method, OK on server will come out to be 81 or 82.\ OK, So what you do is you try to fit one straight line kind of thing.\ OK, alright, trend probably this is that OK, probably this is there.\ OK, maybe if you do it or you know very scientifically by using, you know regression, maybe it will be coming out to be like this.\ OK, so this is my forecast.\ OK, this is where is my forecast.\ OK, never write a forecast as eighty.\ OK, never write 80.\ OK, you will always get it wrong.\ So you should always say OK between 75 to 85, OK, if you have understood please type capital you whenever you make a forecast.\ OK, always give a range.\ Do not give a very wide range, but give a range.\ If you say how many runs India is going to score in the next match, you say 250.\ If they it is 249 you are running.\ If it is 24151, you are long.\ If it is 252, you are wrong.\ Always say 2:45 to 2:55.\ Kind of thing.\ OK, so this is there.\ So how did we make that work cast.\ OK, looked at trend cycles.\ Are there cycles are not there so I\'m not able to see, but if you\'re user lot of computer it might be able to see some cycles which are weak day of the week day of the week, day of the week, day of the week, day of the week.\ OK, your time starts now.\ What is the forecast for Monday?\ Your time starts now.\ OK, what is your forecast for?\ Why not 82?\ You can do 8290 OK.\ Who is this?\ What\'s OK?\ OK.\ That is 80 to 90.\ If you think that this is a good fit, that is fine, or you can use the regression which you mentioned earlier.\ OK, so this is there.\ OK.\ If you think that, OK, so you can do that, there will not be one thing, but essentially what we are doing is this only, OK, So what is the forecast and let\'s see, everyone has learned now with this 90 to 199 who is this SAVITHA what you are doing if you give such a wide range it is correct, but it is not useful.\ Ohh, what money is there in my bank account?\ You say it is somewhere between zero to 20 billion.\ You are late, but it\'s not useful.\ The I\'m gonna do not give you a very wide range, OK?\ Do not give a very wide range, OK?\ Give it a range which is acceptable.\ 199 is too much.\ OK.\ So when you close that my bank account is somewhere between zero to 20 billion.\ OK, so it is correct most likely.\ Yeah, not more than that, but it is not useful.\ OK, great.\ So day of the week.\ So what we do is we fit a line, OK, straight line looks like this is what is the line will come which will be a good fit.\ OK.\ And if we read from here, or maybe it is somewhere around hundred.\ OK.\ So 95 to 105, nine of things we can look at now thing comes.\ So cycles are again not very prominent, which will come in our subsequent ones.\ Ohh that is there.\ That is interesting.\ OK, I told you cycles are like this.\ OK.\ But you know, real cycles are not like this.\ I\'m good.\ He\'ll say that.\ What do you are now beginning to see?\ OK.\ And it is not just going down and going up, OK.\ It becomes something like stationary.\ It comes down then it becomes stationary.\ OK.\ And then it comes down something like this is there?\ Ohh, what of the day?\ OK, So what we have done is we have got the data and we have fitted, OK, some complex cycle, OK.\ And also if there is any trend here.\ OK, so that is what has been done here.\ So you have got the historical data, you take average of that, OK.\ And you take average of that because for many there\'s.\ So this particular take a line.\ OK, take a line.\ Is the now what forecast for next hour.\ So if somebody says then it is 10.\ OK, so in this case we do not have it.\ Trend is not there in this case.\ Trend is not there cycle is there but cycle is quite complicated.\ You can use a software or you spend 15 minutes.\ It\'s OK.\ Software will also give very close to what you are able to guess.\ OK, let us do some of these things.\ Seasonality in there, I will.\ OK.\ So is there any seasonality in there wells just now we had seen out of the day.\ OK, let us look at whether there is seasonality within a year, month WISE, is it there as it did, is it there is seasonality there, is it prominent when it comes to sales of salt, sugar and there may not be seasonality, we may not be taking more salt in January and less in October.\ OK, maybe same, but if it is umbrellas, or if it is ACS.\ OK.\ And then there might be very strong seasonality and OK, it is there like there says let us see.\ Ohh I got this data from 1994 to 1999.\ I will presume all of you were born by that date.\ OK, so we have got this is 90 ohm, very nice, very nice, very nice.\ Ohh so we have got very little.\ OK, so you can say this is constant.\ OK.\ And then we say it goes on.\ That\'s very interesting.\ It comes down and for this whatsoever many years we should be expecting something like this, so you must investigate why it is coming down.\ We were not expecting something great is happening there, OK?\ And this looks like not a matter to be yes.\ Uh, of concern this is not small.\ OK, so you should ask.\ So we have got that seasonality, how severe is the seasonality?\ Why else season is going on?\ OK.\ And that is why it is coming.\ But when Aishwarya flu and then go see them, this is not from India, OK?\ And is it related to Limonia?\ OK, good.\ Ohh there is another one. Yeah.\ Detrick visits emergency department visits seasonal variation in two common diagnosis.\ OK, let me that respiratory.\ Ohh so we have got quarters, OK quarter is there.\ So we have got this thing very prominent, 1 prominent, 1 prominent 1:00 not that smooth as I showed you.\ OK, it is not as smooth.\ OK.\ And here we have got this seasonality.\ It goes like this.\ OK, April to December and then again it goes like this April to December, April to December, April to December, OK, so this is our June, July.\ This is our June, July.\ This is our June, July and this is about OK December, October number, the January, February, March is not there.\ OK, I don\'t know why so OK so I got this.\ OK, so here we have got this data which is quarter.\ It looks like OK in the second quarter.\ OK.\ Broadly.\ OK, I\'m in the second quarter.\ It is high.\ OK, it is not exactly this I can quarter is very, very high.\ Second quarter is very high even if it is coming down.\ Second quarter is very high.\ Second and third, OK, it is here.\ We have got the seasonality, then we have got another seasonality that is of injuries.\ No, that\'s there.\ That also has got, you know, it looks like our that sign curve kind of stuff.\ Is there OK mathematicians will love the blue one.\ OK.\ So that\'s very interesting.\ OK.\ So we look at the peak is coming here peak of this one is coming here peak of this one is the you know it is a gap is there and that we will use in our slide which is later we are on slide \#11 and time is also 11/11/11 please type 11.\ So you should study this seasonality and deeply OK, because seasonality will have a concept of our US on utilization of our capacity.\ OK.\ So capacity wasted, OK or capacity poor utilization.\ OK, may happen.\ Will be severely affected if we have got seasonality.\ OK, best thing that can happen in your hospital is like this, that demand every day, every day.\ It is like this, OK and doctors will be very happy.\ OK, if every day it is like this.\ OK.\ Question is, it is not like this, it is either going up and down OK which we had seen.\ OK.\ So we will have problem in using our capacity here.\ OK, so I either our capacity should be flexible and that we are able to hire fire very easily, which is not the case.\ OK.\ Then we will have challenges in that.\ So seasonality will be important.\ So last time I told you that we have got trend and we have got cycles, OK, no cycles are very, very prominent when you look at the data which is either daily or hourly.\ But you had seen or which is quarterly on which is a monthly.\ If it is null data then you may not find.\ So let us look at how critical which.\ OK.\ Can you tell me which is seasonality is very severe.\ OK, this one, number one, number two, one number three, your time starts now and you have to tell me why.\ OK.\ We\'ll just see where it is. More why?\ Why don\'t write Mr Hussain?\ Don\'t do all this you know.\ Hold on.\ Sets are correct.\ It as long as you do not give the logic OK logic, you have to give.\ You have to convince variations are high.\ OK.\ Anybody else NITHYA is saying what Hussain is saying?\ I will go with them.\ OK.\ Yeah.\ Anyone else?\ Yeah.\ OK, could not understand the question.\ OK, SAVITHA is asking so it\'s all that is OK, OK, people who have given the answer to the even they may not have understood.\ OK.\ Question is like this.\ OK, it can be asked many ways.\ OK.\ A question is like this.\ Which one has got more?\ Variation.\ OK.\ Which one has got more variation?\ It\'ll variation is more or here variation is more or here variation is more or here variation is more here variation is zero.\ OK, that is obvious.\ But can you guess whether the variation is more in 1-2 or three?\ That is the question.\ But Oh yes, he\'s home.\ Thing is there it is more in this same thing is with all others also.\ It is same two has high variation Anupama no it is not a.\ What you said is not wrong, but it is not correct.\ Also, you should give a good justification.\ OK, good.\ So I will give you GOPIKA now is saying something.\ OK, I think like this one in 50% increase from the previous month.\ OK.\ So can we do something simpler and better?\ OK, so first we see it is not flat, OK.\ So whenever you see a graph, first thing you should make flat.\ OK, I want this but it is not this.\ So it is the best thing then if it is here and then it is bad.\ And if it is here and then it is more bad than if it is here and then it is more bad.\ This is your reference.\ OK, so how many?\ No.\ What did that 8%?\ So you should be getting 8%.\ OK, so there are 12 months in a year, OK.\ And that divide by 12 is 8.\ So this is what they want.\ OK, so this is what is there.\ So we look at maximum to minimum ratio.\ That could be one way OK, or you can compute the variance also.\ OK, so maximum to minimum ratio is 6.\ OK, minimum value is what that is about 6.\ OK that is a.\ And this is 12.\ That is 6 OK.\ This is 6 OK.\ Sorry, I will make that change and this is 2 and this is 2.\ I\'ll make that change.\ This is 2.\ OK, Levin is 2, so this ratio is 2.\ Let us look at those ratios.\ OK.\ Those the ratio is for the this brown OK, it is three.\ It is maximum value is three OK and minimum value is about 1.5 or so.\ So that is also two.\ Ohh that\'s very interesting.\ They have got very similar kind of variation.\ Let us look at the blue blow is how much 2.752 point.\ It does not 2.75 it 2.4 actually 2.4 I will make that change OK.\ And then do that so whenever you see a mistake in a slide, do you know what it means?\ It means that slide is very fresh.\ It has not been used in the past.\ OK, so whenever you see you know slide has got mistake so that is what you should do.\ You should work like you know.\ Diagnostics, intelligence, CIA.\ OK.\ And the minimum value is 1.6 or OK, so it looks like suppose these numbers were correct, OK?\ And that case, there is a more variation in the brown as compared to blue.\ If you have understood, can you please type in 11.99.\ Shouldn\'t be the ones, huh?\ That is what I told you.\ OK, I will make that I will make that OK.\ It should be 11 or so.\ OK, I\'m using whole numbers rather than getting into for actions.\ OK, so that you know we get the essence rather than that.\ OK, great.\ Let us go further and let us make a forecast.\ Now all of you have understood so number of community.\ I go ahead and Ammonius data which we had seen.\ OK, So what is going to happen?\ OK, one method is you use it regression.\ OK, I\'m serious, but looks like if I take data.\ Looks like in this at the what is happening?\ OK, do not do like this.\ OK, you must stop somewhere here.\ OK, so this is what is my best thing.\ OK, so do not try to go for cycles cycles.\ Generally in the annual data you will not be able to see.\ OK, so you will only have a trend.\ OK, either the trend is going like this, OK?\ Or it is if it is increasing, it might have been increasing like this.\ If it is increasing, it might also be increasing like this.\ All are increasing if it is increasing, maybe it is increasing like this.\ OK, it looks like a simple model will be like this.\ This is my forecast somewhere around that give a range and you are done.\ OK, if you apply your mind a little more, OK then you may also ask this question.\ OK, as something changed since then because it was increasing.\ Like.\ And then after that it has become something like flat.\ Is there something that government has done or anything has done or some breakthrough is there, but so if you think that something has happened there, then your forecast is here.\ If you have understood, please stay one.\ OK, that is what I\'m saying.\ Domain knowledge.\ Understand.\ Also OK, do not give up.\ OK, let us look at their deaths, OK?\ We don\'t know what the Yamaraj knows, what it will be, what lettuce forecast, how much is going to be the workload on the yamaraj, yes.\ So it was increasing.\ It was increasing.\ It was increasing.\ OK, we should have been getting something like this.\ OK, so looks like something is come down, so I\'m suspecting something has happened here and that is the kind of thing.\ OK.\ And then you should say whatever has happened last.\ OK, whatever opthamologist.\ OK, she said.\ Naive method name means whatever has happened here that is here that is called name.\ Name means what happened yesterday.\ OK, tomorrow is equal to today and that is the meaning of name.\ What is happened today?\ OK, surprisingly that gives good results.\ It looks like you know, it may not.\ Be right.\ So OK, so it is not right, but it gives good result.\ So what will be the temperature tomorrow?\ OK, you make the forecast has what it was today, you will be wrong.\ You keep on doing 100 times.\ OK, every time you might be wrong, but you will be very close.\ OK, that is what you have to say.\ OK, so in both the things we have got some trend.\ OK.\ And this and this also we have got trend, OK we do not have any strong cycles are not there, OK, so this is the way you do.\ OK, I told you how to do it by hand.\ OK.\ Are you can also use computers though that, but most likely you will come very close to what computers will do.\ OK, let us make another forecast.\ OK.\ Can you tell me what is the forecast of dark blue?\ Your time starts now.\ And not more.\ And yet there so.\ But the Monash the dish dublish.\ Yes, and what?\ Google has not gone.\ Yeah.\ Well, area.\ Yeah.\ Yeah.\ Make your forecast.\ Look at that.\ Quickly, quickly, aren\'t.\ One.\ No, no, no, I cannot do that.\ Not do I told you, be able to have again all of your you need to buy to attend my classes.\ OK, I\'ll give one suggestion.\ Neither.\ You buy a microscope.\ OK, if you are a microbiologist, it will not be a problem or you buy a telescope.\ OK, one of those two things you have to do, which I do it in all my courses.\ OK, OK.\ That is that 42500 something like this.\ OK, So what you look at the procedure procedure is this procedure is this we should be expecting somewhere here?\ What I liked for most of you is that you are giving it OK, SAVITHA says.\ That I don\'t have to spend the money.\ I\'m a microbiologist.\ I got all microscopes.\ Are there OK, so Kavita is going to save a lot of money.\ OK, she will become richer than.\ All of us are very soon because of this.\ OK, So what I like is, uh, of all of you that you have given a range in US.\ It\'s a big change.\ OK, give it it.\ I can give it hinge.\ Do not give a wide range.\ Give it good range so that person also feels what it is.\ OK, the way you tell in the hospital, you know, it may cost between two legs, 2-3 legs.\ If you say between 2:00 to 20, OK, then you will not come back.\ OK.\ So let us look at one more.\ Ohh that\'s very interest.\ That is very interesting comma straws and in laws how to pronounce.\ I will not do that.\ OK, so we have got this data.\ We have got this data look and that data look and then data look and then data and look at that data take 15 minutes.\ I\'m good.\ My thought and mobilization.\ Ohh on this is that so I don\'t see any trend.\ OK, it looks like trend is not there.\ OK.\ And ups and downs, OK.\ Ups and downs.\ So you had to spend 15 minutes only then you will get that.\ OK.\ Well, that\'s Hyd\'s out there.\ OK, to me it looks like cycles are also not there.\ OK, alright.\ Is full of randomness.\ This for love, very close to for love.\ Randomness.\ So if somebody ask you what is going to happen, OK, so that Lady said, OK, whatever has happened yesterday.\ So you should make it here.\ OK, you should make it head if you have understood, please type that in.\ Please type 13.\ Yeah, it is a dominated wire randomness.\ So we are not getting do not force the things and do not force keep the things easy, OK, that is there.\ OK, now we have got another one.\ OK, that is dehydration.\ OK, so.\ Dehydration.\ Ohh that is very interesting.\ It looks like that there is a trend, OK like this.\ If you have understood these type capability that looks like that there is a trend.\ DID ration has trained?\ It is increasing cyclic pattern and particular month increase good is doing very well OK and it looks like and then there are peaks which are happening after regular interval.\ A regular means fairly OK, and then it dips and all that.\ Thanks.\ It is here that we should expect something like this here.\ OK.\ We should expect something like this here.\ Don\'t go up to here, OK?\ That looks like and this is my forecast so it has got trained and it has got it.\ Uh seasonality, also that is what we have done.\ OK, if you have understood, then you\'re right.\ U2 OK, please type you too.\ OK, I\'m a bit stuck.\ She\'s coming.\ Where was this lady earlier.\ OK.\ OK.\ Now I will test your knowledge.\ OK, please look at this.\ NHS hospitals in England.\ OK.\ Can you make it forecast your time starts now your time starts now.\ Well, you too.\ OK.\ Was this not my OK?\ In the.\ Malayalam, OK.\ The movie.\ On this get film industry, it is me too.\ Not you too.\ OK.\ Yeah.\ And I guess.\ Any guess?\ Quickly, quickly make a guess.\ No, we I have not asked you as of now, OK?\ I told you earlier.\ Also, no cause and effect.\ OK. No.\ OK.\ OK, whatever it is.\ OK, now what is happening is let us look at only up to here.\ OK, so everything appears to be going like this and this is what we were expecting.\ Now what has happened is OK, something has happened here and all of you know actually.\ And Kavita knows much more, and that\'s something dramatic.\ Thing has happened.\ OK, so it is not, it\'s more small thing.\ It does come down, you know so much.\ OK.\ And then fortunately, we have got some data.\ If we did not have data then it would have really, really been very, very difficult to say only up to this data what will happen.\ It has recovered OK.\ Whether it will recover fast or not.\ OK, so because of this dip, OK, we are into a soup.\ We may not be able to make it very good for custom because forecasts thermally means that whatever is the underlying dynamics OK that has not changed.\ Underlying dynamics has not changed and that is why we were doing this.\ Now we know underlying dynamics has changed.\ OK, so one has to be very careful and I told you you use that domain knowledge also do not depend only on the data.\ OK, if something like this happens, if something like this dramatic is not there, then do not use your judgment lip data speak.\ Because of course is not in not lost Spital, so no admissions, no great, more admission.\ Great.\ OK, it doesn\'t look good.\ Another forecast.\ Can you tell me what is going to happen?\ OK.\ Patient arrivals in the Butterworth spin 2015 and 16.\ OK, so this is all randomness.\ OK, so trend is not there.\ Cycles you may find.\ Maybe it is there if you use Fourier analysis, so cycles are also not there, so it is largely random.\ OK, So what you\'re focus should be this.\ You make this forecast.\ Do not try to capture that up and down.\ Do not do that.\ OK, that is where people make the mistake.\ They are trying to.\ Uh, you know?\ Hit on that ups and downs.\ No, you only say my forecast is this OK?\ If it is more last time use still say this.\ If it was less than last time then also you say this do not use that name model.\ Also in this case, OK, let us look at one more, OK.\ These are tourist arrivals.\ OK, these are two data in India.\ OK, this is what is happening.\ So you know everything was going like this to rest arrivals, OK?\ It was going like this and that is one.\ Then it has got peak.\ Ohh Peak is there.\ OK, so this is monthly data, so month by month it is there.\ OK, this is what is called summer.\ OK, very few people come and this is what is called December.\ OK, many people come in such a nice cycle.\ So you have not find easily.\ OK, there is cycles like this tourist arrival.\ You will see that number of aircraft arrival probably is also like this and number of hotel bookings that also is like should be like this and these are tourist arrivals, India, OK, so we should be expecting that and I would have made a forecast, OK or any software would have made only something like this not only looking at the trend but also on the scenario.\ OK.\ And what many of you have said, and that Corona is not only a medical phenomenon, but it is also done something like this.\ OK, it does become almost a zero.\ Nobody came because there was no flights.\ OK, so like this good.\ And then it has picked up and whether the seasonality will be there now or not.\ OK, so there is no reason to believe she\'s narrative will not be there.\ OK, So what is my forecast here?\ OK, now it looks like conomy is on the wheels.\ Economy is doing exactly OK, so there is nothing like this, but probably I will use this one now except for this area I would use.\ What this would have done?\ OK, I would have done like this.\ I would ignore this.\ Use your domain knowledge.\ OK, what people are doing is they are surrendering everything to this way.\ You know, young boys and girls, OK?\ Who?\ Only you know enter data.\ OK, don\'t give up that.\ OK, if everything is OK, please type 14.\ OK.\ It\'s 9/14.\ OK.\ Somebody.\ OK, let us look at capacity.\ OK, so now the demand is there some demand has to be met.\ OK, we had made a forecast, OK, otherwise also you have got some idea of what we are doing.\ OK.\ The second question is where we are to invest in the first case, you don\'t have to do any investment here.\ You have to do the investment and it takes time to add to the capacities, OK, capacities can be rigid or they can be lexible.\ NEHA SOOD has not come today.\ OK, that is the reason you know our all people, our toothache is happening.\ OK, that dentist has not come.\ Maybe she has got the salary.\ OK.\ Capacity.\ So what is capacity?\ OK, so all of you understand capacity, OK, So what is capacity capacity I have taken from one book.\ OK, it says the throughput or the number of units.\ If acidity or equipment or hospital or a system can hold a deceive store or produce any period of time, so many things they have written.\ OK so I have put it into two colors.\ OK, hold is different than receive.\ I\'m gonna hold and store that same.\ That is, even produce they\'re similar.\ OK, so this is the definition I have taken from one book.\ So what it means is OK, here is a pump.\ OK, this is not a hard pump.\ OK, this is a water pump.\ Or maybe mother fluid which is used.\ So we have got a pump. OK, So what it does it, it receives that produce.\ So this is green in color.\ OK, so this particular system.\ OK, capacity will be expressed in terms of how much it receives or how much it produce.\ OK.\ And then we have got another capacity, OK, and that is it in different kind, OK and that is it.\ So in this is how much water is flowing if.\ Law is that in this flow is not there.\ OK.\ How much you can hold our store?\ So whether these are petroleum, OK and how many rooms are there?\ OK.\ How many beds are there?\ So in that case we are talking capacity in terms of how much you can hold.\ So in the stadium, how many seats are there?\ And in a hospital, how many beds are there?\ So when we use the word capacity be little careful because many times this is not emphasized.\ So I thought I\'d make some, uh, take some pictures and show it to you.\ OK, so this will be shown as laters units of capacity is a liters per minute.\ OK.\ And in this case, capacity is let us not per minute because there is no flow.\ So capacity is of two types.\ One which is flowing another which is not flowing.\ OK, so this is also like our letters.\ These are number of rooms, not number of rooms per day, so number of rooms.\ So these are number of seats, not number of seats per day, OK.\ And the similarly you will say what is the capacity of this.\ OK.\ So you will see how many it can hold.\ OK, maybe one and 80 or so.\ OK, great.\ Going further.\ OK.\ How do we measure the capacity?\ OK, good sense of your may not have gone through a course like this, so like might look a little surprising that the measuring the capacity is not easy thing.\ I guess there are many reasons measuring the capacity is not easy.\ Things just now.\ I told you, what is the capacity of this, OK.\ And if you\'re mobile also has got something like this.\ OK, it says so many MB RGB.\ OK, so GB is how much data it can hold.\ OK.\ And when you talk about Internet, that capacity is like this.\ How many GB per second?\ OK.\ So that is flow OK.\ So when we talk about capacity, OK. Yeah.\ And we have got some issues out there, some therefore, OK, be careful on that.\ OK, so there are two type of capacity to measure.\ One is called output.\ Another is called input capacity.\ OK.\ So can you make a guess in case of hospital we measure the capacity as output capacity or input capacity.\ Your time starts now.\ Let me check all the students are there.\ OK.\ We have 27.\ We have broken all over the records, OK?\ I\'m stop.\ We\'re saying, you know, you just confusing all of us, he says.\ What?\ Don\'t don\'t say that.\ Yeah.\ OK, good.\ OK.\ Obviously.\ OK.\ So let us look at how it is output capacity.\ OK, output capacity is measured like this per day, per minute, per hour.\ OK.\ Like this, units of output capacity are per day.\ OK, OK.\ And of input capacity is day.\ They\'re not that this the one day is there in our class also.\ Yeah, a lot more.\ Not Monday.\ OK, that not month.\ This is another day.\ Not that day.\ OK, that is only in terms of this.\ OK, so output capacity is used.\ Output.\ Isn\'t just just per day.\ Yeah.\ OK, output capacity is yours do whenever 80 of the output is narrow.\ OK, so if output is only very narrow which I will give you the examples like in case of a refineries, OK and they make only two, three things same and victories maybe 2-3 kind of cement automobile not very large variety, OK and there\'s no printers and that coke kind of stuff.\ We generally will use capacity as output capacity like that.\ OK, ANOTHER is called input capacity.\ OK, so input capacity is in terms of number of employees or how much time is there in terms of days.\ So we do not say how much we are producing.\ We are saying how many resources we have.\ OK, so this is what is yours.\ When variety of the output is large, OK, so when variety of output is very large OK then this is what is used.\ So if you say what is the capacity of a hospital?\ OK, so if they are doing only eye drop and nothing else, then we will say so many eye drops per day.\ OK, they are doing operation.\ They are doing this.\ They are doing that.\ They are doing so, it becomes very, very weird.\ So if somebody says what is the capacity of your hospital?\ Yeah, it\'s very unlikely that you will say that capacity of hospital is so many test per day.\ So many operation per day, so many consultation per day.\ So many of these per day, then you have to write all the outputs.\ OK, another way is to say, OK, it is it 300 bedded hospital that is one way.\ So how much you have?\ OK.\ Did that capacity or we say our capacity of my hospital is that 100 people are there, so this is what is used when we talked in terms of OK audit forms, OK.\ So if you go to a law firm, you say, what is your capacity?\ And they will have difficulty in telling.\ And they will say we have got so many people are there consulting company, how many people are there?\ OK.\ So they will type talk in terms of how many hours on how many are there OK, printing shop now printing shop.\ If you look at, they do not print the same thing every day.\ OK, like Coca Cola.\ And every day they are doing same thing, printing.\ They don\'t do so.\ Some they are doing brochures.\ Sometimes they are doing calendar, sometimes they are doing and Diaries.\ Sometimes they are doing report, sometime they are doing OK.\ So this batches of 5000 this is 10,000, this is 2000.\ So every day they are doing different things.\ And so they are capacity.\ They generally express in terms of input capacity.\ OK, so many of you said, OK, we are using both, OK.\ So if you are talking only about diagnostics, so you say so when you test per day, OK, because now you have reduced the variety because operation operation, theater consultation, many things are not there, then it is becoming easier to express in terms of output capacity.\ But if you have what the thing with a lot of variety of things are done, like these consultants from monster and young, OK, so there are doing consulting.\ Some consulting is only for four or five days.\ OK.\ So more for three months, some more for two years.\ OK, all kind of things are there.\ So they are not able to express how much is going to be there capacity.\ If everything is largely OK, please type 17.\ Mr Lozano is smiling and also triangles, and that\'s very interesting.\ OK, good.\ OK.\ Competitive planning.\ When we do, there are three type horizons.\ OK, one is long range intermediate range, short range, OK.\ The kind of things that we can do long range are very different than intermediate and short range.\ OK.\ So it\'s OK, so this could be one week kind of things.\ OK.\ What we are going to do next week, maybe up to a month or so.\ OK, intermediate range.\ OK, because there are time.\ So it takes time to do something.\ If you want something to happen now, OK.\ OK, you have to do planning.\ OK.\ Planning you have to do if it takes so much of time, then you have to do planning.\ So long range mean there are a few decisions and capacity which takes long time to do.\ OK, there are a few things which can be done in short times.\ There are few things which can be done almost immediately.\ That is the meaning OK earlier.\ OK, there were no surgery and all that.\ So you have to plan, OK, once I reach home.\ What to cook today, that planning is gone.\ OK, so planning is required when there is a delay.\ When delay is almost equal to zero, OK and then it is not required.\ Earlier people you would get married after 3-4 months of getting engaged, OK?\ Because you know 3-4 months you have to do all the preparations.\ OK, now people are going to hotel.\ OK.\ And they have to they buy a Reddy met, you know, garments and all that, you know, all this was to be stitched.\ So I\'m getting married.\ Was, you know, the time horizon was long, OK, why does it become short?\ Because ready made things are available.\ OK, OK.\ OK.\ So when we talk about this long range, OK, so here you\'ll see top management is involved, OK, here middle management may be involved, OK.\ And they\'re our junior staff may be involved.\ What you see on day to day basis is this amount of money that will be involved to do this kind of long range, which I\'ll show you in the next slides.\ OK, that will run in two hundreds of crores.\ But first, top management is there. OK?\ They do something those impact seen after 2-3 years and hundreds of crores are there and you cannot undo the things.\ Another is intermediate range.\ OK, it may require investment.\ It may not require investment if it is required investment, it may be only one quote in crowd.\ Kind of thing, but not hundreds of crores.\ OK.\ And it\'s impact can be seen, OK, because some changes can be done much faster.\ The other things which can be done at a very very short range, and this is what we generally see now three to four years, what is that?\ Probita but I don\'t know.\ I hope she\'s not talking about marriage planning my problem.\ That is too much.\ OK, longer in the capacity.\ Ohh marriage.\ Three to four years.\ Ohh, people plan for three years.\ Good.\ That is a surprise.\ I don\'t know on this lady is new age lady, I think.\ OK, so how do we expand the capacities?\ OK, so we are looking in long range, not in the short range, OK, from behave got something like this?\ No, very interesting.\ Looks like we are going to take some ladders.\ OK.\ So ladder is like this and this is a very interesting letter which I have not seen.\ Great.\ So one is leading that demand.\ OK, suppose you have made the forecast OK, and that forecast is annual kind of thing. Not daily.\ OK, long range oppose.\ You have made a forecast that things are going to be like this, OK or we can achieve like this then what should be the capacity.\ One approach is lead that event you have the capacity like this increase the capacity in chunks, increase the capacity in chunks.\ OK, so you were always demand was always lower than the capacity.\ So you are leading.\ OK, this is the one way.\ OK.\ And this is the one of the methods that some companies also do OK to good.\ He had a threaten the market and then there is enough capacities there.\ So do not try to expand.\ OK, because I have already expanded so this is one of the approaches which you can be there.\ OK, another approaches.\ OK.\ Once you\'re capacity is full, then you explain the capacity and then you explain the capacity and then he explained the capacity.\ Your capacity utilization will be 100% in this case because OK, when demand is picked up only you know you are reactive.\ Well, then what do I do?\ Here you are proactive, but you have put up the hospitals and other things.\ OK, after 2-3 years you see that it is picking up.\ Well, not that is working on a concept of uh, following the demand.\ OK, first you are leading.\ Sticking to your falling and 3rd OK, you are going with the average demand.\ OK.\ So sometime above sometime below OK sometime above sometime below sometime above sometime below OK so that is what you are gonna do.\ OK.\ And in this case, one advantage is there when you are increasing, you are increasing the capacity double as compared to here.\ OK, look at that.\ And this is another one.\ What it says is OK, it is same Monday, nothing else it says increase in very large but this is one of the ways to see that now.\ Intermediate range strategies.\ Destination weddings.\ But you know, four years is too much and that is OK.\ Four years is told four years.\ OK, because sometimes I read in the social media, they say we were in relation for how many, three years, four years.\ Maybe it did that kind.\ Anyway, let us not.\ Otherwise you\'re not.\ Would ask me to become shadi.com.\ OK, let us avoid all that, OK?\ Viator in finances, then you go to Moneyball, you\'ll get finances. OK?\ It is still going on.\ I\'m great.\ Intermittency, P uh?\ Let us close this chapter now.\ Marriage will open in some others.\ OK, now let us proceed further, OK?\ Otherwise, only you know we will become shaadi.com and we will get lot of its OK for other students come to know this is what we are talking I\'m telling you in our next class OK or our tendency will be 100% it is going to be 100.\ Great.\ OK, let us go there.\ Intermediate range strategies.\ OK, so intermittent means that we are looking only ahead in terms of weeks and months.\ OK.\ When we are looking at weeks and months, what can we do?\ So one is called a cheese strategy strategy means that largely you are trying to chase whatever is your demand or you are trying to give your demand compacity has close to the demand, OK or theoretically matching the demand neither it is more nor it is less.\ This is a great strategy, but very difficult to achieve, but it is a great because you know demand is always equal to capacity.\ If demand is more capacity is less than you are going to lose the demand or revenue.\ If capacity is more than, you\'re wasting the capacity and this is the best thing that you can do.\ So do you study is matching the capacity with the demand, OK and the 2nd is called level strategy.\ OK.\ So level strategy is that you maintain particular level, OK and that is a constant level, OK, that could be like this.\ OK.\ And this is one capacity, OK or you can maintain exactly at the peak, OK, and that is another capacity.\ You can keep it in the average also.\ That is another capacity you can keep here also.\ OK, you are going to lose a lot of customers.\ That\'s a different matter, and this is what is there.\ OK, so this is called level strategy constant capacity.\ I\'m not saying where it should be, what it is constant.\ You will see that generally we may do a combination of these two, OK, the best.\ So this capacity which we are having, OK, if we have got this capacity then we are going to do the customers we are going to close the customers.\ So revenue is going to come down, OK, your cost is also less OK and that is what is there.\ Now if you do these kind of things good, then what happens is this is the period in which you\'re capacity is more than the demand.\ So you are wasting the capacity in this period.\ OK, you are capacity is less than the demand, OK.\ So you are going to lose the customers if you are here.\ OK.\ And then what happens is you are not going to lose the customers because every time you\'re capacity is more than the demand but not a lot of wastage is happening of the capacity.\ OK, so these are the things that are of concern.\ And if you are able to store which is not the case in your case, like in case of Maruti and all that, they can also create inventory.\ OK.\ So generally we may use a mixed strategy which is J plus level.\ OK, So what we do is we may go for like this, OK?\ And we will have a capacity like this and then we\'ll reduce, OK like this.\ And then we do like that and then we do like that.\ OK.\ So you see that it is constant and we are seeing.\ It is also trying to chase that and that is always called mix strategy.\ OK, if you have understood, please type 2020.\ OK, OK.\ Now question to all of you is OK in what do you think by end of strategy is used in your setups?\ Is it chase or it is level or it is mixed?\ Oh, please.\ Type.\ What do you think is used in your case?\ OK.\ Level, OK JAISWAL.\ Kavita, which?\ Which hospital order set up is yours?\ Jesus, many people.\ Jesus is the best that you can do.\ BHUVANESHWARI also says OK, let me have a discussion with these people because I either I am surprised or maybe it OK.\ But I\'m hospital Dubai.\ Oh, this, this and the way we have to go there.\ There are other people also in the way.\ He has not come today.\ What is his name?\ He\'s in Abu Dhabi and there is another data there SAVITHA.\ She loves are not come.\ OK.\ Most welcome.\ OK, great.\ So we can go there.\ OK, let us understand the meaning of 2 ladies. I\'ve written.\ OK, they have said we are doing chess.\ I\'m good.\ Tears means, OK, correct me.\ OK, you can correct all the.\ You can make the changes also if you think cheers means that you are hiding and you are firing very easily.\ That is the meaning of this hiring and firing.\ Going to wince, you are hiding.\ OK, Iding hiding and you have started fighting.\ So if hiring and firing is easy, which is the case in agriculture when they got showing on, they have got harvesting.\ OK, every day they hire people every day.\ They say it is gone.\ So in agriculture you will find, OK, this kind of thing happening and you will also find this kind of thing happening.\ OK, what is called Amazon?\ OK, so Amazon demand is actually like this.\ OK.\ Because of Diwali and festivals, OK, it might be, you know, somewhat flat, but you know, getting the festival, they do.\ So what they do is OK to meet this peak demand during Diwali and other festivals, what they do is they go for outsourcing, OK, and they go for outsourcing and the purpose of outsourcing is because, OK, they are easy to hire and they gave them those jobs.\ OK.\ Which it does not require a lot of training and they can immediately be done OK.\ A lot of people are hired hundreds and thousands of people are hired during those periods and they are paid handsomely also. OK.\ And one that sees an is off and they are asked.\ You can go same kind of thing you will find OK and chase strategy is happening.\ OK, close to that.\ It is happening in the tourism industry.\ OK, so in tourism industry also you will see very few tourists are there during winter, OK.\ And lot many are there.\ So many people, they enter into that and they go out and get level means this.\ If you are not able to hire and fire easily if you are not able to hire and fire easily, either the equipment or the facilities or the people.\ OK.\ And that is what is called level, yes.\ So every day, OK, after two months, three months, either somebody\'s hired on the device.\ You don\'t see that, so it is going to be level.\ So outsourcing OK, so the best strategy is actually chase since you cannot hire and fire easily, it is a very expensive.\ It is not a legally allowed OK and you cannot, you know every day say that you know I\'m leasing out my space in the hospital for two months.\ OK.\ And like that may not be that easy.\ So what do we do?\ Is we go for outsourcing outsourcing actually allows you to move level plus outsourcing.\ Yeah.\ So that allows you to go to the chase.\ OK, so this is what somebody will do.\ OK, so suppose it is there.\ OK, so maybe let us take one theoretical example.\ There is one company to meet that then they will go for level strategy and then they will hire and fire.\ OK.\ And these people who are outsourced so that all the fluctuations are taken by outsourcing and everything is done by us.\ OK, if you have understood, OK then it is mixed.\ OK, that is what I was surprised because hiring uh, you have given the answer before I even explained that, OK, this is there.\ OK, go bestie.\ Planning options.\ Who are coming?\ OK, long range planning, intermediate and short range planning.\ So what options are there and when we do OK long range means something which takes long time to do OK on that 3-4 years that Lady was saying something like this.\ If something takes long time to do, then we are into that OK to put up new facilities.\ It takes time.\ OK, so it takes time to build the new facilities.\ So this is the option that are available to you and this will run into hundreds of cores OK and top management will be there.\ OK.\ And once you have done that, you cannot undo easily, OK.\ Or you can even acquire the competitors.\ OK, so you must have seen that you know Bill Gates.\ You got that?\ Hotmail.\ OK.\ Mergers, acquisitions and all these kind of things are happening.\ OK, these things do not happen daily.\ OK, I\'m not weekly, so once in a while that happened a lot of money is involved.\ It may also happen some hospitals are taken over by some other chain intermediaries hiring.\ So you\'ll see in that time has come to her.\ So you advertise you interview, then give the notice period.\ Can joining period is there then some training is there so it takes time.\ So maybe 2-3 months kind of thing.\ Is there another?\ Is training OK?\ So if training is to be given, it may take some time so that can also increase your capacity.\ Hiring can increase training, can increase competitors.\ OK.\ Yeah, it can increase.\ Well, the new facilities can increase.\ OK.\ Ohh that\'s very interesting.\ OK, if you have seen this graph anytime in your life, OK please type 1.\ Otherwise type 2.\ If you have seen this graph anytime in your life, OK, and then your type one or your type 2 yes.\ Stop it stops.\ Then what do you are doing?\ OK, I think you are not attentive at all.\ 10 minutes back I showed you this.\ All of you are not attentive at there, at least except NITHYA.\ Just 10 minutes back I showed you and you people forget so easily.\ And then one lady is writing, you know, neural networks isn\'t all these networks just 10 minutes back I have shown you.\ Very interesting people out there.\ You should take some bone witter now.\ Yes.\ Stop taking Bovada 10 minutes back.\ I showed you.\ I just thought let me check your memory is very very simple.\ I don\'t know what to do.\ I think I will have to start the the whole course once again because you have forgotten slide \#20 also.\ OK, so one more way that not in place.\ OK, great.\ OK, so we have got OK, something very interesting is to be seen here.\ OK.\ How can we manage?\ OK, any ideas?\ Wait, is there?\ So you gotta getting one cycle.\ OK.\ And we are getting another cycle.\ OK.\ And that another cycle is very interesting cycle.\ OK.\ That another cycle is like this.\ So when this is.\ Even this is speak, this is low when this is low and this is high when this is high.\ This is low when this is low.\ This is high when this is high.\ This is low.\ That\'s very interesting.\ If you add these two graphs, OK, if you had these two graphs, this is 10.\ And this is 2 OK, well, this is the order the distance.\ This is spent and this is 2 OK if you had all this, OK, if you had graph A&B it will become flat.\ Ohh that\'s very interesting.\ OK.\ And everybody was saying we want to level capacity because that is what we can manage.\ OK, I don\'t know whether it is possible or not.\ OK, this is a good thing that can happen if we have got the facilities, doctors and others.\ OK.\ We these two things should be done in the same hospital.\ OK, so that during this period, OK, they can focus on respiratory, OK?\ And during this period, they can focus on injuries.\ So overall, overall demand, OK, because now we can add them, OK, overall capacity that can be like this.\ If you have understood, then you write capital U.\ Is, I don\'t know.\ OK.\ Is it from Australia or not?\ OK, I will have to check.\ OK, now what you do is wherever possible, I\'m giving you the source also.\ OK, maybe in the previous one I might have given that source.\ You can check that or you can copy this and something called Google Lens.\ It will be able to tell you, OK.\ So if we have got flexible resources and look at that, if we have flexible resources, OK, who can work on Brown and this OK either operation there that all that lab facilities or those doctors or anything OK that can actually help us.\ OK, this is another way of managing the this thing.\ OK, today morning I got this idea.\ OK, another is subcontracting.\ OK, subcontracting takes time because you have to hire and in case of industries, lot of things have to be done.\ OK, so trials are there samples?\ Are there negotiations?\ Are there it takes time to produce that?\ OK.\ Another is additional shift which may be or may not be there with you, but then private sector OK and they generally are one shift OK and when demand goes up, they go into the 2nd shift.\ OK.\ And then they also go into the third shift also.\ OK, so something\'s are such a which are all the time three shift like your emergency which is in three shift or electricity production that is also in three shift airports and they are in three shifts but many things are there so additional shift additional shift actually means additional people also not this on these two things are related in additional shift requests additional people hiring OK and then there is another one which is there no you can add the equipment equipment buying may not take so much of time but equipment new major facilities may take time OK.\ Create and use inventory if you can.\ Stores, which I\'m not very sure whether you can store.\ OK.\ And your kiss.\ But this is the major thing.\ OK, this is a you know, all my Maruti and other students and they are actually interested in only in this but not in all other things short range part time, part time in same people.\ You are not hiring OK, you are not hiding.\ It is same people, OK, but asking them to work extra.\ OK, so that you can get more money and money, PAL.\ OK, so part time, but part time also has got limitations you cannot do for several.\ There are government regulations, are there?\ How much part time people can do?\ OK.\ Another is overtime.\ OK, so part time is OK you can get some part time people and just overtime overtime is working for 2-3 more hours.\ OK, job is to which we\'ll see soon.\ So you are told today you do this tomorrow you do this, OK?\ Another is job scheduling.\ OK, this I\'m going to show you in next few minutes.\ OK, ANOTHER is by appointment.\ OK.\ Let me ask one question to all of you.\ Do you have a case of no show that somebody has taken appointment but he does not come?\ Does it happen?\ How serious is this for you?\ Or is it a serious thing for you or it is not serious?\ No show is there.\ Chips.\ OK, we learn bowling recently.\ OK, so it happened, not it happens on. That happens.\ OK.\ Question is, is it serious for you?\ No, no.\ Is it serious?\ Waste of time.\ See, don\'t give me these answers.\ It happens.\ Everybody knows it happens.\ OK.\ But is it very serious?\ Are you?\ It is not serious.\ I did.\ Not serious.\ If it doesn\'t go, it is serious.\ So people who are saying serious, OK and they are working in private hospitals, people who are saying it is not serious and they\'re working in government hospitals, this is the way you should find out who is working where.\ Let\'s see the money and time based noted.\ It already paid prepaid and postpaid OK.\ And there\'s one more PEDDY people are also, you know, prepaid kind of people, OK.\ The most famous.\ OK, so that is one way of dealing with the. No.\ Show.\ We\'ll see with the no show later arrivals during that day.\ OK, this is the arrivals during that day.\ OK.\ So we are hoping here, OK, this is what is happening.\ Hospital opens at 9 and everybody actually has already come.\ OK, this thing already I showed you.\ OK.\ And here we have got cycles.\ So one good thing for all of you is that.\ People love coming before you open.\ Ohh that is a good thing.\ OK, that\'s what is your cost is concerned.\ It is a good thing for you.\ It is a good thing for you in terms of capacity, your capacity will not be wasted because everybody\'s there.\ People are coming at 2:00.\ Come because you know his train comes at 2:00.\ So from other city.\ OK, very few people actually come after the hospital has.\ And this is from Bangalore.\ OK, managing planning or pressure, OK, so we earlier looked at.\ Obesity.\ Uh, there.\ We looked at capacity, OK, now we are going to look at.\ So we had a demand here, OK and we were trying to match that capacity.\ So we looked at how we can do something with the capacity.\ OK, now can we do something with the demand itself if it demand and capacity are not matching, can we do something with that demand?\ OK, so before I proceed, can you give me some ideas what are those options?\ Not dead.\ OK.\ By which weekend?\ So my capacity is fixed, my capacity is fixed OK, something like this.\ Whatever it is, can I do something with my demand so that and demand tries match with the capacity?\ This I\'m not going to play.\ I\'m only going to play with this.\ OK, your time starts now.\ Not at all.\ We have tea time dating.\ No show business.\ Ohh play you dumb kisses and that is one.\ Any other right?\ It started in 1800 and 20s or so.\ This is what I read a few days back.\ OK computer.\ Yeah, that\'s.\ Yeah.\ And it down you\'ll please send SMS to the uh our person from Coimbatore.\ OK, just tell him.\ You know, everybody was missing him.\ I think he\'s angry with me.\ OK.\ Yeah, any other.\ Please apply mine.\ You people are simply not doing these things and all other things you are doing that marriage kind of thing is so much of interest you take in those things.\ This also you big at least some interest.\ OK, good management of time, but Google here.\ OK, maybe they are neighbors.\ Or maybe in the same hospital.\ Come on, easy, entrepreneur.\ And they start.\ Maybe he\'s playing with millions.\ OK, great.\ You have replied now that is OK, but others what others are doing.\ OK, so let me tell you, one is advertising and promotion, OK?\ So what happens is this is what is called Amitabh Bachchan and promotion by one.\ One for you kind of thing.\ OK, so these days we see many hospitals, OK and they are advertising in a big way.\ So hospitals are advertising more than those, you know, companies which are making soaps and shampoos.\ So much of advertisement is there OK or promotions are also there.\ So they say, you know that we will do some 60 blood test.\ OK, in ₹200 I used to think that there are only two or three blood tests.\ Recently I came to know OK number of blood tests are so many OK and if you do 60 at least one or two will come out to be bad.\ OK, at least one will come out to bed.\ I guess so.\ That is why I don\'t go with this.\ OK, so another is promotion by 1140, OK or package is there and they will have arrangements with that corporate OK for your employees, OK.\ And all these things that are happening.\ This is one way advertising and promotion, which was probably not allowed earlier.\ Now we are seeing OK, this is happening in a very, very big way.\ OK.\ Any other method?\ Any other method?\ Ohh so that is promotionally OK.\ He\'s doing in that if you are unwell, you bring another person who is unwell. Oh, God. If you have got well, please send somebody else.\ OK, so that will come under promotion, employee engagement or what employee engagement?\ Oh, it is there not there.\ Employing it meant ohh it is going to affect that demand.\ You have to explain see in the exam if you write all these kind of things, I\'ll award you zero.\ You have to give it logic.\ OK, it may not match with me.\ That is OK, but you have to give a sound logic why you think you might be right and he may not be noise, but if you simply write like this, it is very difficult for me or anybody to connect.\ Why it would be like this convenience on other days you ask that person to wait.\ That is called a waiting backlog or it is called inventory.\ OK, so when demand for Maruti car is high, OK, and they don\'t have.\ So what do they do?\ They say.\ Can you wait if you wait for two months, three months, six months?\ Also, OK, we\'ll give you some discount or like that.\ So they call backlog or you say waiting OK and waiting is very common.\ Uh, England and European countries.\ Two months wait.\ Six months.\ Wait.\ Kind of thing is there for some of the procedures.\ OK, antigens, planning, outsourcing.\ No, no, no.\ Who is this?\ So, but what you are writing, outsourcing is capacity.\ I\'m thinking that we want to change the demand so your focus is on the customer on on the patient, patient has to change in case of advertisement you have done something and now patient is going to change.\ So he will come and bring some more people.\ OK.\ Because you know earlier, you know, he was not doing any blood test.\ Now he\'s doing blood test.\ Now you say you know I I\'m going to give you that home.\ What is that?\ Home tests are also there.\ OK, they are coming to home and doing that.\ So those are the ways.\ Personalization another is overbooking.\ Overbook.\ OK, that is what you should do.\ Yeah.\ So if you have got 100, you call 100 and 10120 kind of things to deal with them.\ No shows.\ OK, so this is one of the strategies which is extensively used by the airlines abroad.\ What they do is they find that the capacity of the aircraft is 100 OK and if they sell hundred seats, OK, so 5-10 people do not come.\ So what they do is they overbook, OK.\ They will work 110 instead of 100.\ Of 100 so OK, so many times.\ It\'s OK.\ OK, it will work OK and they are able to accommodate sometimes what happens is OK number of people, OK and who have come are not 90, but they were 97.\ OK, so few people who were overbooked.\ Now they\'re not able to accommodate.\ OK.\ And then they will give some discount kind of thing.\ OK.\ And next time we will do that or upgrade in the next flight and all that.\ But this is what they do.\ More short.\ OK, it\'s gotta be very, very serious in case of.\ OK, weird.\ You have got more capacity, OK?\ Like in private sector and government, you know, many people said it doesn\'t matter if he doesn\'t come so many other people are there.\ But if you have given appointment and he doesn\'t come, you are not able to get somebody else in a short notice or booking.\ So this is what is there you are dealing with the customers here.\ Another is a differential pricing.\ OK, So what you are saying is price is different.\ I realized it and there is one hospital only about two kilometers or 1 kilometer from my place.\ OK, So what they do is like this.\ They look like this.\ OK.\ So on they also find some pattern which is like it.\ So what do they do?\ They are finding that this is the way patients are coming.\ OK, now what they have done is they have got pricing.\ So pricing is like this, OK, so price is OK hundred here.\ OK.\ The places 88 it is OK.\ Now what is happening?\ No, that\'s prices.\ Sorry, sorry it is not here.\ OK, prices, let me make it separately here.\ Umm.\ So what they do is when demand is I OK, they will make a price which is high and after that they reduce the price.\ OK, so it is, I think so five ₹600 or something like this and it is there.\ OK.\ So then they wanted these people to move here, OK, or they want these people to move here.\ This is what they do.\ OK, so which I\'m sure maybe done in other hospitals but you are not able to increase your capacity since you are not able to increase the capacity and you want to meet that.\ This is what they do.\ Early bird discount.\ No, no, no.\ Please do not mix up these things.\ You know that girl booking and all that, OK and that is not this.\ AGGARWAL booking.\ Go to be I will have to think not.\ You people are giving a lot of ideas.\ OK, now I should open one hospital.\ OK.\ And I will hire all of you there.\ OK, I\'ll booking.\ Yeah, it can be done.\ Umm, not call.\ Yeah.\ Great pricing is not impossible.\ Yeah.\ OK.\ OK.\ No, I\'m not saying they see.\ I\'m not saying do this.\ OK, everyone knows what I\'m telling you now with the attending classes like this, your things will become more structured.\ OK, I\'m not given any new idea.\ OK, I\'ve got some lot of ideas, but not in this course in some other course.\ I\'ve got ideas where I spend more time.\ OK, what I\'m saying is this is being done.\ OK, it is also being done by the governments.\ What?\ That Lady wrote.\ OK.\ That\'s cool.\ That\'s cool.\ Means what?\ OK, if you want urgent basis.\ OK, so that\'s KALA either in the a passport, OK, it is different if you want in 2-3 days.\ OK, you go for tatkal.\ Got that call means emergency in hospital.\ Type of phone book that is different now mean actually that is different and different is different.\ OK, here we are not saying again that is there everywhere in the airline in the also trains also it is first class, second class, 3rd class.\ It is different, so that is a different thing we are saying.\ We have got a capacity.\ It\'s going to be have got like obesity and my capacity is more ohh what do I do so you are asking the customer to move there, OK.\ What you are saying all of you is correct.\ OK.\ But on what you are doing is when question number one is there you give the answer of question two and question two is there you give an answer of question three that is the.\ What some problem is there?\ OK, no procedure please.\ I\'m not saying it can be done or it should be done.\ What I\'m saying is or same thing price is different.\ Nothing very changes after 12:00.\ They have got different place.\ OK, not that doctors are different or anything has changed.\ Nothing has changed.\ Everything is exactly same.\ So your aim there is two shift, OK.\ Ohh K.\ This is another one.\ OK.\ I will, you know, this is the slide I should not have.\ I should have moved elsewhere.\ OK, I should have moved elsewhere 2 slides there because I have not used this slides earlier.\ OK.\ Should I think.\ OK, hold of Hindi clubs.\ What is that thing loss.\ Uh, but call OK?\ Apart call, not call.\ OK.\ Thank you.\ Goods Amit Verma.\ Amit Urma thing is first time has come today.\ First time, OK, it\'s OK.\ OK, OK.\ So I love you.\ Please let me know how many nurses are in your hospital.\ OK, please write that your time starts now.\ All we need nurses are there.\ Please write.\ 142 OK, this 900 of look at that.\ OK.\ And that\'s the end NITHYA.\ Maybe they are in the same hospital.\ No good SAVITHA, she says.\ 2000 are there.\ I think many people are not well in the way.\ What is the reason?\ OK.\ Deepak is 123 so great. So numbers are large 2900 and 9140 to 123.\ Some more please.\ Mr Or just three, or just or just.\ OK, you\'re not waiting anything which you are aware of.\ OK.\ How do you schedule the nurses?\ OK.\ How do you schedule the nurses?\ OK.\ How do you schedule the nurses?\ That is my question.\ OK.\ So first question, we have realized, OK, these are not one or two which can be done manually, but it has to be done scientifically when number of nurses are not small, when they are in 900, OK on when they are \$202,000, when 123 OK.\ When these kind of numbers are there and then obviously we require some better way, you\'ll see that there is a better utilization of the resources.\ OK, shift wise, yes, but the current?\ Uh, exactly.\ We are going to do what Mr OJASVI saying as per requirement.\ OK.\ That\'s what equipment we are going to do.\ OK.\ But just OK, Doug Dish is saying get ours.\ OK, wait hours.\ OK, we can actually do better if it is what ours.\ OK, I will show you.\ OK, not 8 hour shift but reporting is 4 hour 4 hours.\ That is what it is going to be there.\ OK.\ So somebody says there as per requirement whatever you are going to say, everything is there.\ In this example you said it, it is also there.\ OK, hit our shift.\ But the reporting every four hours.\ Patiently issue ratio.\ OK, the issue is also there.\ Yeah, the issue is also there.\ Patient issue is also there.\ All those things.\ OK.\ So let us look at E.\ We want to find out what is the requirement of nurses.\ OK.\ So somebody said patient one patient will find out the requirement for nurses, OK, in four hour windows in a hospital is given below.\ OK, so every four hours.\ How many nurses we required?\ So somebody said it depends upon the uh patient.\ So we have what the patient from patient we have computed this OK zero to four hours.\ We require five.\ OK this we require 6 and this we require 10 we require seven we require four and we require 6 so patient has come umm did nurses have come?\ OK, now we are going to find out how many nurses are will be deployed.\ OK, so this is what is my requirement.\ OK, so please let me know whether you have understood or not.\ If you have understood the problem, which is the most important thing this day, one.\ No, we will come something more on that.\ And during morning around double the number of nurses can add later, as per this is.\ It means this is the the most important topic.\ I\'m covering the way you people are writing.\ Somebody says you know the issue or somebody saying there\'s somebody saying that somebody saying around and all that.\ OK, so the way it looks like this is one area in which you can do great jobs, especially if number of nurses are too many and they are 6-7 then it is OK.\ OK, Amit Verma.\ OK.\ Nurses working 8 hour shifts.\ If you understood, then you write.\ Then you write two.\ OK.\ Because something interesting is going to happen because of that four and eight.\ OK, OK so requirement is given in four hours and not since they work in eight hours.\ OK, OK.\ It is not eight hour and 8 hour, it is four and eight.\ OK, so if you want you can also make it in two hours also.\ OK.\ But to keep the thing simple, we have kept it 4 hours.\ So you can make a one hour.\ Also you can make 2 hours.\ Also you can make 8 hours.\ Also you can make 16 hours also, but this is something which is fixed maybe all over the world.\ OK.\ Question is, how many nurses have to be deployed?\ Your time starts now.\ Like this is 6.\ What this lady is doing NITHYA you know all your patients?\ What will happen to these patients, these patients?\ What will happen to them?\ Who require additional 4 and what will happen to this?\ It is OK for a here.\ What happens to them?\ And you will now looks like Kavita that now no matter what happens, I have to go to the way now.\ This is what I have understood now today.\ 60 would?\ OK.\ Any other things?\ OK, let me show you.\ So we are doing like this.\ OK.\ So we say some nurses, they will report here.\ Some nurses will report it.\ Some nurses will report at this time, OK, so some nurses will report at this time.\ Some nurses will report at this time.\ Some will report at this time, so these two are same.\ OK.\ So again we have got same requirement of 56107.\ Let us take that.\ OK, if you have understood these things, OK, these are red lines that nurses will report at different times.\ OK, then you write 4.\ Adding according to the equipment and all that that is OK.\ OK.\ And that is all.\ Knowing those things are not OK, so we said we do not know.\ We do not know some of the reports they will report and S1.\ OK.\ And this time, and they will work.\ OK, report at time zero.\ OK, because it is 8 hour so they will work here and they will work here.\ If you have understood then you write file.\ And you write 5 quickly.\ OK.\ And then we will have some other number which as of now I do not know.\ There we will call them and the next, OK and they will report here and they will continue to work here 4 + 4 hours this type 6.\ Then we have what X3X3 is here.\ They will report here so they will work here.\ These date seven, please tape 8 please Type 9 and please type.\ This will go into the other one.\ OK here 9 please type.\ OK great.\ Everything is easy now to me it looks like OK because number of nurses are too many.\ They are not too three.\ OK, you require some scientific way of doing it and you can see that you can meet that.\ OK.\ And this is a requirement has come from the patient itself.\ Great.\ So let me show it is like this.\ So what is required is 56107465610746 OK shift one shift two, shift three, shift four, shift five, shift 6.\ Same thing shift 1234, same data have written OK and whatever is written here that I\'m showing you.\ OK, in a way.\ So that it is easy to digest.\ OK, gastroenterologist OK.\ So X1 are coming here and they work here.\ Next to work here X3 work for this OK X4 work for this X5 work for this and X6 it works here and here.\ OK.\ And the next one, OK, because it is again next day also it is same that is what I have written here.\ OK, if you have understood this.\ Then you write your 25.\ Please type your 25.\ There is nothing new here and there is nothing new here.\ Whatever I have written this things that is what is shown here so that it is easy to do that whatever is the numbers are there and they are given here.\ OK.\ And this timings are here.\ Nothing new is there.\ Very, very easy.\ OK, OK.\ So now what we do.\ OK.\ Ohh my God.\ OK, that\'s olation cause the computer OK to do that.\ OK.\ And this once again, let me ask you whether you have seen something like this.\ Like what time in your life?\ They won.\ OK, please don\'t type 2 this time.\ OK, I will be very, very depressed.\ Have you seen these things earlier?\ Type once OK.\ OK, so we have got this answer is there OK, so we will see that later, OK.\ What it says is this.\ For the time being, you ignored that.\ I will do in the afternoon session.\ So what it says is OK, higher three here three and three.\ So three, you take three will be here, OK.\ And next two is how much, three.\ OK.\ And this also is 3 and this is how much this is 7.\ They will continue to work just say what this is.\ How much?\ And nobody should come and report here.\ Nobody here. OK?\ No, in this shift this should be how much for.\ This is also for this is how much and this is 2.\ This is also two, so 3 + 2 here matching five 3 + 3 six.\ OK, this is what you\'re required and this is what I\'m doing 3 + 710 seven is 7, four is 4/6 is 6.\ OK, if you like it, please type OK better if you have not understood then you type 2.\ Great.\ Ohh great.\ OK, I will explain this later.\ OK, what I\'m saying is OK, that many of the problems then you are dealing with common sense is a good way.\ But if you have gotten 900-600-2000, nurses, that resources, huge things and then we have got some better methods to do that, OK and all this is very, very easy.\ It is not very difficult.\ It is whatever is given here that is another way of writing and in these days you don\'t have to write this way.\ You simply say you simply fill up this excel sheet.\ OK, it will give you this answer.\ OK, he got this answer.\ He using a computer.\ OK.\ So total that are required or 19.\ OK, please stay one night so that we will meet at a time which is at 1:30.\ OK, Misclass monitor, how are you feeling now?\ Miss Glass monitored, are you there?\ What do you 100% OK now?\ OK.\ Would you please tell us the portion for the Chris, Chris, you open?\ Don\'t ask these questions.\ What is that?\ Can you tell me why you\'re not tell?\ OK, even I do not know how much I\'m going to cover.\ OK, I prepared A cause.\ So depending upon how much I\'m able to cover today, that gives will appear OK and that will maybe if you ask me same question at 3:30 I will be able to tell you more whatever I\'m covering.\ OK.\ And if you have listened very carefully and if you have not forgetting the way you people forget today, OK, in the previous slide and then you will be able to do great.\ OK.\ We\'ll meet at 1:30.\ OK, bye.\ She says.\ I will definitely ask, OK.\ Thank you, everyone. OK.\ Discovered. **\ SANDEEP KAYASTHA.** stopped transcription
