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Questions and Answers
What is deterrence and how does it function in state security?
What is deterrence and how does it function in state security?
Deterrence is the use of threats to persuade an opponent to refrain from initiating aggressive actions. It functions by convincing the opponent that the costs and losses of an attack will outweigh any potential gains.
Why is credibility important in a deterrence policy?
Why is credibility important in a deterrence policy?
Credibility is important because a deterrent threat must be perceived as believable by the attacker to be effective. If the attacker doubts the defender’s willingness or capability to follow through, they may proceed with their aggressive course of action.
In what ways can rational choice models apply to deterrence theory?
In what ways can rational choice models apply to deterrence theory?
Rational choice models apply to deterrence theory by suggesting that military threats can alter an attacker's expected utility, making aggression appear less beneficial. This involves assessing potential costs and failures of a military confrontation.
Provide an example of directed deterrence and describe its context.
Provide an example of directed deterrence and describe its context.
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What role does extended deterrence play in international alliances?
What role does extended deterrence play in international alliances?
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What is the primary goal of arms control and disarmament in preventing conflict?
What is the primary goal of arms control and disarmament in preventing conflict?
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How do collective interests shape the behavior of states differently from realist views?
How do collective interests shape the behavior of states differently from realist views?
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In what ways can identities influence state perception and lead to conflict?
In what ways can identities influence state perception and lead to conflict?
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What role do norms and taboos play in the constructivist model of international relations?
What role do norms and taboos play in the constructivist model of international relations?
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What is the significance of the Anti-Personnel Mine Ban Convention in terms of state security?
What is the significance of the Anti-Personnel Mine Ban Convention in terms of state security?
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In Bremer's study, what core question addresses the conditions under which interstate wars occur?
In Bremer's study, what core question addresses the conditions under which interstate wars occur?
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Why is enforcement considered a difficulty in arms control agreements?
Why is enforcement considered a difficulty in arms control agreements?
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How might interactions between states alter their perceptions of threats?
How might interactions between states alter their perceptions of threats?
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What role do international institutions play according to neoliberal institutionalists in mitigating anarchy among states?
What role do international institutions play according to neoliberal institutionalists in mitigating anarchy among states?
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How do realists view the compliance of states with international institutions?
How do realists view the compliance of states with international institutions?
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In the context of constructivism, why are norms important for state behavior?
In the context of constructivism, why are norms important for state behavior?
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What are the two types of intervention that international organizations (IOs) can engage in during conflict management?
What are the two types of intervention that international organizations (IOs) can engage in during conflict management?
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How do international organizations help reduce private information among states?
How do international organizations help reduce private information among states?
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What mechanism do IOs use to mitigate commitment problems during conflict settlements?
What mechanism do IOs use to mitigate commitment problems during conflict settlements?
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What impact does a third-party involvement have on the likelihood of negotiations according to Walter (1997)?
What impact does a third-party involvement have on the likelihood of negotiations according to Walter (1997)?
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Why might states consider their reputation when deciding whether to comply with an agreement?
Why might states consider their reputation when deciding whether to comply with an agreement?
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What is the significance of naming and shaming in the context of international institutions?
What is the significance of naming and shaming in the context of international institutions?
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How can IOs increase the flow of information among member states?
How can IOs increase the flow of information among member states?
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Study Notes
IPE (week 11)
- Globalization is the inexorable integration of markets, nation-states, and technologies.
- It enables individuals, corporations, and nation-states to reach around the world faster, deeper, and cheaper.
Globalization
- The process of widening, deepening, and acceleration of worldwide interconnectedness.
- This process is largely facilitated through trade, movement of people, financial connections, advanced technology, and diffusion of ideas.
- National economies are integrated into a globalized system.
- Businesses, organizations, and countries operate on an international scale.
Economic Liberalism
- Adam Smith viewed humans as rational actors driven by self-interest.
- Markets develop through individual, rational action.
- Markets function properly when free from government intervention, maximizing resource use and generating new wealth.
- Minimal government intervention is key.
The Role of States
- States influence domestic and international economic policy through various tools.
- Fiscal policies: Use of taxation and government spending to influence the economy. Increases in government spending and reductions in taxes can stimulate the economy, while the opposite actions slow the economy.
- Monetary policies: Control the money supply by raising or lowering interest rates (to influence macroeconomic conditions like inflation and unemployment).
States in a Globalized World
- Exchange rates affect the economy by affecting the price of currency in relation to others.
- Appreciation: When the value of a currency increases relative to another. Foreign goods become less expensive.
- Depreciation: When the value of a currency decreases relative to another. Foreign goods become more expensive.
- There were various Exchange-Rate Regimes in 2019. Fixed rate, fixed peg arrangements, and floating rate regimes (crawling peg, managed floating currency, and independently floating currency).
States in a Globalized World
- Fixed/Pegged: Government promises to hold a currency's value to another currency or gold,
- Gold Standard: Countries agreed to convert a country's currency into a fixed amount of gold (1870-1914).
- Float: A currency's value is determined by the global market based on supply and demand relative to other currencies.
International Monetary Regimes (1870-Present)
- The international monetary regime is a formal or informal arrangement for managing currency relations.
- The classical gold standard (1870-1914) provided currency stability, facilitating trade and investment but was affected by WWI and the Great Depression.
- The Bretton Woods monetary system (1944-1971) aimed to establish a system of stable monetary exchange after WWII, although it ended when the US removed its currency from the gold standard.
- The international monetary system since 1973 largely uses floating exchange rates.
States in a Globalized World
- International trade is a driving force in globalization.
- Comparative advantage: When one country has a lower opportunity cost for producing a particular good compared to another country, making it beneficial for the country to specialize.
- Countries specialize in producing goods where they hold competitive advantage to maximize the use of resources.
- Absolute advantage: Country with superior production capability/performance for all types of products.
Factor Endowments
- Factor endowments(land, labor, and capital), differences in factor availability explain comparative advantage between countries.
- Heckscher-Olin model: A model where countries export goods demanding abundant factors and import goods demanding scarce factors.
- Countries with abundant capital are more likely to export capital-intensive goods.
Factor Endowments Example
- Bangladesh: Comparative advantage in labor-intensive goods. Exported knitted apparel to Luxembourg (2021).
- Luxembourg: Comparative advantage in capital-intensive goods. Exported metal molds & machinery to Bangladesh (2021).
Protectionism
- Protectionism (trade barriers): Restrictions on imports to protect domestic industries from international competition.
- Tariffs: taxes on imported goods.
- Non-tariff barriers: quotas, regulations, and subsidies.
The Role of Economic Institutions
- Bretton Woods institutions were established after WWII to support economic liberalism, especially the World Bank (initially the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
- These institutions facilitated economic growth.
- International trade organizations such as WTO were established through the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT).
Dispute Settlement Mechanism
- WTO members have agreed to a dispute settlement mechanism.
- This mechanism is widely used, with over 500 disputes filed since 1995.
- Includes efforts to settle issues through consultation and a panel selection to hear the case if needed.
- Violating countries must follow panel recommendations.
- The mechanism has some weaknesses, such as the possibility of retaliation.
Doha Development Agenda (2001)
- The 2001 ministerial conference in Doha, Qatar focused on global agricultural trade liberalization as a major issue.
- Many developing nations rely on exporting agricultural products but face competition from wealthier countries' agricultural subsidies.
- OECD estimates these subsidies at approximately $300 billion per year.
- Limited progress has been made, with the 2013 Trade Facilitation Agreement as one achievement but stalled after 2017.
Criticisms of the WTO
- Import competition: WTO-led tariff reductions, promotion of imports, MNCs' operations have a negative effect on jobs and wages.
- Intellectual property: WTO agreement’s (TRIPS) restrictions can limit access to critical medicines in developing countries.
- Regulations: Concerns over unfair labor practices, environmental issues, and other regulations.
The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund
- Bretton Woods system: Established in 1944 to manage the global exchange rate regime and balance of payments.
- IMF: Manages the global exchange rate regime and balance of payments.
- World Bank: Provides post-WWII reconstruction loans to member countries; has shifted its focus to developing countries.
The World Bank
- Established in 1944 by winning states after WWII
- HQ: Washington D.C
- Originally created to support Europe’s recovery from WWII by lending member countries postwar reconstruction loans, with low interest rates
- Later switched to helping developing nations providing low interest loans to support their development projects, through its IBRD and IDA institutions.
Poverty Alleviation Efforts of The World Bank
- The bank has its poverty alleviation efforts primarily in Africa, particularly in the poorest nations.
- In 2013, the bank set a goal for ending extreme poverty by 2030 (e.g., individuals living on less than $2.15 per day).
- The bank aims to address issues including climate change, post-conflict recovery and the response to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Impact of US Interests on IMF Conditions
- How does the IMF set conditions for borrower countries?
- Are the borrower's relations with the US a significant factor behind the number of conditions imposed by the IMF?.
Rationale
- Scholarly works highlight U.S. foreign policy's influence on international financial institutions (like the IMF).
- Close allies often receive larger loans, suggesting political leverage.
- The IMF, despite being an institution, can still act as an independent actor, although its actions may still be influenced by preferences from particular countries or groups, such as from the US.
Theory
- Hypothesis 1: The IMF sets conditions based on borrower countries' domestic economic conditions (e.g., growth rate, consumption, budget deficit, monetary expansion, current account balance).
- Hypothesis 2: The IMF imposes fewer conditions on countries closely allied with the US.
- Hypothesis 3: The IMF imposes more conditions on countries during periods prior to democratic elections.
- Hypothesis 4: The IMF uses fewer conditions for countries with similar voting records (in the UN General Assembly) with the U.S.
Data and Methods
- The study analyzes 206 IMF letters of intent from 38 countries spanning from April 1997 to February 2003.
- Dependent variable: the number of conditions imposed by the IMF.
- Explanatory variables: borrower countries' domestic, economic conditions, voting records (in the UN General Assembly) with the U.S., and whether democratic elections are scheduled within the next six months.
Results
- IMF imposes more stringent conditions when a borrower's GDP is low.
- Number of conditions imposed is lower for countries that are more aligned towards the United States in the UN General Assembly.
- Fewer conditions are imposed during periods prior to the democratic elections.
- The likelihood of fewer conditions on countries allied to the United States is not significantly strong.
Conclusion
- Countries that voted with the U.S. in the UN General Assembly tended to receive IMF loans with fewer conditions. • Overall, the study argues that the U.S. and major contributors to the IMF (G7 countries) likely play a significant role. • These findings contrast with other studies that suggest U.S. influence does not drive changes in IMF policy.
IMF Programs
- Do countries benefit from IMF programs?
- Loan amounts tend to be larger and more frequent for countries with greater IMF quotas, more professional staff at the IMF, and stronger political/economic ties to the US and major European countries.
- Higher IMF loan participation is correlated with lower economic growth, and a negative impact on democracy and the rule of law.
Theory - Determinants of IMF Loans
- A country's quota share at the IMF (reflecting its voting power)
- The share of that country’s nationals employed in the IMF staff
- The country's relations with the US (political and economic proximity).
Variables and Data
- IMF lending: (1) whether a new loan is approved, (2) duration of IMF loan program, (3) size of IMF loans
- Economic growth: per capita GDP growth, based on data from 130 countries between 1975 and 2000.
Key Findings
- The probability and participation in IMF loans are affected by the IMF quota share, IMF staff share, and economic proximity to the US
- The size of IMF loans relates to IMF quota share, IMF staff share, UN voting patterns, and trade intensity with the US.
- Support for IMF policies is more likely when countries share greater ties through peace-promoting institutions.
- Significant participation in IMF loan programs corresponds with a decrease in the countries' economic growth.
Conclusion
- IMF loan participation shows a negative effect on democracy and the rule of law.
- A possible explanation is that an increase in international aid can increase corruption by officials (such as rent-seeking behavior).
- If IMF loan programs are bad for the economy (at least for economic growth), why do governments still participate? (some possible answers are explored in the document).
Week 9 Interstate War
- War: an organized, deliberate political act by an established authority causing at least 1,000 deaths in a year and involving at least two actors capable of harming each other.
Types of War
- Interstate wars: between states.
- Extra-state wars: between a state and an entity not a state in another state's territory.
- Intrastate wars (Civil wars): between a state and an armed non-state entity within its territory.
- Non-state wars: between non-state actors.
How we measure war
- Correlates of War (COW) dataset: Looks for interstate war. Sustained or continuous battles between states, a minimum of 1,000 battle-related deaths during a year, and records it from 1816-2010.
- Militarized Interstate Disputes (MIDs) dataset: Includes interstate threats, displays, or uses of force, and wars. The range is from threats to actual wars; records these from 1816-2014.
Realist Interpretations (Causes of War)
- Disputes exist in anarchic systems, lacking a governing authority.
- War occurs due to a lack of authority to resolve disputes or enforce law.
- Power imbalances and the distribution of power in the international system may be a cause of war.
Preventing War and Managing State Security: Realism
- Power balancing: States maintain a balance of power to prevent war with their adversaries.
- Alliances: To balance power both internationally and regionally.
- Deterrence: Use of threats by one party to convince another party to refrain from initiating an action (or course of action), due to the high cost or losses.
Liberal Interpretations (Causes of War)
- Focus on the characteristics of the state and its institutions (e.g., democracy).
- Democratic peace theory: Democracies are less likely to fight each other, but they are just as likely to fight non-democracies.
- Commercial peace theory: economic interdependence fosters peace, as states seek continued trade benefits and avoid conflicts that disrupt trade and profitability.
Liberal Interpretations (Causes of War)
- International institutions create cooperative connections.
- A lack of shared membership might increase the possibility of conflict among states (who do not share the institutions' values).
Preventing War and Managing State Security: Liberalism
- Self-interest: States benefit from cooperation by institutionalizing it.
- Collective security and arms control agreements: The collective benefit of peace outweighs individual gains from war.
- Arms control and disarmament: Regulates arms proliferation, limits weapons, and reduces security dilemmas through treaties.
Constructivist Interpretations (Causes of War)
- Identities and perceptions of adversaries can change through interaction.
- Institutional influence: Shaping states' perceptions of each other and themselves.
- Norms and taboos: Development of norms/taboo relating to a specific type of warfare or weaponry, may evolve (e.g., anti-personnel mine ban).
Dangerous Dyads
- Research question: What distinguishes countries that go to war from those that don't? Main findings included factors such as geographic proximity and similar power status between states being more associated with war.
Why study dyads (pairs of States)?
- Inappropriate unit of analysis: prior studies have focused on higher-level factors such as systemic or national level, while dyadic analysis pays more attention to the direct interactions between the dyads, such as their level of conflict over time
- Limited spatial/temporal domain: many prior studies do not look at a large enough time span or focus purely on wartime behavior/events of the states
Why do states build nuclear weapons?
- The security model: States build nuclear weapons to enhance their national security against foreign threats (e.g., particularly nuclear threats).
- The domestic politics model: States develop nuclear weapons to promote parochial domestic or bureaucratic interests.
- The norms model: Nuclear weapons development represents a state's modernity or identity.
Why do states build nuclear weapons? (1/2):
- Historical factors; such as Germany’s nuclear program in WWII influencing the US program.
- The Soviet Union’s nuclear program influence on British and French programs
- China’s development affecting India’s decision to develop nuclear weapons.
- India’s program influencing Pakistan to proliferate.
Why do states build nuclear weapons? (2/2):
• The changing security dynamics(e.g., emergence of a new power such as the Soviets): a threat may require a country to develop stronger security defenses. • Domestic politics (e.g., political motivations) play an important role in shaping a country’s decision regarding weapons development (e.g., increased support for this choice by the public during certain periods of time due to various internal conflicts).
Nuclear Proliferation
- Nuclear weapons development relies on complex technologies and organizational structures.
- States may obtain weapons-grade fissile materials through theft or purchase.
- Globalization raises concerns about non-state actors acquiring nuclear weapons.
Nuclear Non-proliferation Efforts
- Nuclear non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) established a framework to manage the spread of nuclear materials.
- International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) assesses nuclear programs and monitors compliance.
- Some states have been challenged for not fully cooperating with the treaty, including North Korea.
South Korea's Nuclear Considerations
- South Korea's potential nuclear weapons development is a complex area, driven by worries for the safety and security of the country.
- Some have suggested developing nuclear weapons as a way to deter threats, and others have argued against it for various reasons.
The Panama Canal Zone Transfer
- The 1964 rioting episode between U.S. residence and Panamanians over the right to fly the Panamanian flag in the Canal Zone led to negotiations for a new agreement with Panama.
- Several draft agreements were made, with the final terms signed in 1977. These treaties transferred territorial sovereignty to Panama in 1999.
- The process and ultimate result show the two-level game dynamic, demonstrating the interplay of domestic and international factors in shaping international agreements and outcomes.
International Cooperation and Law
- International law: A body of rules and norms that governs interactions among states, international organizations, and, in limited cases, individuals.
- Sources of international law include customs, treaties (binding agreements), and general principles of law.
- Enforcement is a key challenge but is often influenced through vertical and horizontal enforcement mechanisms.
The Role of the International Community
- International Governmental Organizations (IGOs) monitor state behavior, set standards, compile reports, and offer recommendations.
- Monitoring bodies such as the UN Human Rights Council engage in the Universal Periodic Review (UPR) of states' human rights records.
- IGOs may also use embargoes and sanctions to enforce compliance with international agreements in egregious circumstances
- NGOs play important roles as they disseminate information and lobby IGOs to take actions for human rights.
How Is International Human Rights Enforced?
- Legal process explanations (horizontal and vertical)
- Horizontal enforcement (e.g., state enforcement through international legal agreements) and vertical enforcement (e.g., treaty-related mechanisms or enforcement bodies)
- Transnational legal processes (e.g., transnational advocacy networks): Actors engaging in different types of interaction over various issues to collectively promote their agenda and create pressure.
Does international human rights law make a difference?
- Negative consequences: lack of monitoring/enforcement, and countries may be motivated by self-interest
- Positive consequences: compliance with treaties may make it possible to avoid domestic backlash if compliance is perceived as a win by the states
International Criminal Court (ICC)
- Permanent judicial body (established 1998): The ICC investigates, prosecutes, and tries individuals and states for war crimes, crimes against humanity
International Criminal Court (ICC): What does the court do?
- Can rule on disputes between states
- Provide advisory opinions on legal questions
- The court's jurisdiction may be limited by the existence of national legal procedures and policies, or the sovereign rights of the states, unless the UN Security Council (UNSC) explicitly extends jurisdiction; thus, the ICC acts as a last resort, or court of last resort'
- The ICC may address serious crimes that have been or might have been committed since July 1, 2002
The International Criminal Court's effectiveness
- Research finds mixed evidence regarding the effectiveness of the ICC regarding its potential impact on state behaviour concerning state-sponsored violence and rebel abuses • The ICC involvement might prolong civil conflicts because of the associated risk(s) of punishment that it can inflict on leaders (or states).
- The probability of conflict resolution decreases when the threat of domestic punishment is low.
Human Rights
- The establishment of international human rights norms and regimes is a complex process
- There are several theoretical perspectives on how these rights are enforced (e.g., legal process theories, constructivist perspectives)
Important Dates for Students
- Make-up class: 12/9,
- Final exam: 12/16
- Reaction papers weeks 9-12 (12/15), reaction papers weeks 13-14 (12/22)
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Description
This quiz explores the concept of deterrence and its critical role in state security. It covers key topics such as credibility, rational choice models, and the impact of identities and norms in international relations. Additionally, it examines the significance of arms control and disarmament within the context of preventing conflict.
