Decision-Making Errors and Biases

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Questions and Answers

What bias involves analyzing information primarily through the lens of previously held beliefs or decisions?

  • Confirmation Bias (correct)
  • Framing Bias
  • Hindsight Bias
  • Self-Serving Bias

Which decision-making error reflects the tendency to create meaning from random, unrelated events?

  • Anchoring Effect
  • Overconfidence Bias
  • Availability Bias
  • Randomness Bias (correct)

Choosing options that provide immediate satisfaction at the expense of long-term benefits is indicative of which bias?

  • Representation Bias
  • Sunk Costs Error
  • Immediate Gratification Bias (correct)
  • Selective Perception Bias

Which of the following illustrates a tendency to fixate on initial information while disregarding any subsequent information?

<p>Anchoring Effect (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which bias involves misjudging the predictability of an event after its outcome becomes known?

<p>Hindsight Bias (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which bias describes the tendency to focus primarily on the most recent experiences when making a decision?

<p>Availability Bias (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What term refers to the error of making decisions based on past investments rather than future outcomes?

<p>Sunk Costs Error (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which bias involves creating an overly positive self-assessment of one's abilities or performance?

<p>Overconfidence Bias (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which cognitive bias results in individuals only noticing information that supports their previous decisions while ignoring opposing data?

<p>Confirmation Bias (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What bias is characterized by the tendency to make decisions based on initial pieces of information that are then not adjusted despite new data?

<p>Anchoring Effect (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Flashcards

Heuristics

Using simple rules of thumb to make decisions quickly, but may lead to inaccurate judgments.

Overconfidence Bias

Overly confident in one's abilities and judgments, ignoring potential risks.

Immediate Gratification Bias

Preferring immediate rewards even if it means missing out on bigger rewards later.

Anchoring Effect

Focusing on the first piece of information received and neglecting later information.

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Selective Perception Bias

Interpreting events based on your own preconceived ideas, ignoring opposing evidence.

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Confirmation Bias

Seeking information that confirms your past choices, even if there's contradictory evidence. You're like a lawyer defending their client.

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Sunk Costs Error

Thinking past decisions are unchangeable and continue to invest in a failing project.

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Self-Serving Bias

Attributing successes to oneself and failures to external factors. Taking credit for wins, but blaming others for losses.

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Hindsight Bias

Mistakenly believing an event was predictable, only after the event happened. Seeing patterns in randomness.

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Study Notes

Decision-Making Errors and Biases

  • Heuristics: Decision-making shortcuts, "rules of thumb," used to simplify complex choices.

  • Overconfidence Bias: Unrealistically positive views about oneself and one's abilities.

  • Immediate Gratification Bias: Prioritizing immediate rewards over long-term benefits or avoiding immediate costs.

  • Anchoring Effect: Over-reliance on initial information, leading to a failure to consider subsequent data, fixating on initial information and ignoring subsequent information.

  • Selective Perception Bias: Interpreting information based on preconceived notions rather than objective facts, selecting, organizing, and interpreting events based on the decision maker’s biased perceptions.

  • Confirmation Bias: Seeking information supporting existing views and ignoring contradictory evidence.

  • Framing Bias: Focusing on specific aspects of a situation while overlooking others, based on how it's presented, selecting and highlighting certain aspects of a situation while ignoring other aspects.

  • Availability Bias: Judging the likelihood of events based on how easily they come to mind, often recent events, losing decision-making objectivity by focusing on the most recent events.

  • Representativeness Bias: Assuming similarities between situations when none exist, drawing analogies and seeing identical situations when none exist.

  • Randomness Bias: Creating patterns and meaning in random events.

  • Sunk Costs Error: Continuing a course of action due to past investments, regardless of future prospects, forgetting that current actions cannot influence past events and relate only to future consequences.

  • Self-Serving Bias: Attributing success to internal factors and failure to external factors, taking quick credit for successes and blaming outside factors for failures.

  • Hindsight Bias: Overestimating the predictability of past events, after the outcome is known, mistakenly believing that an event could have been predicted once the actual outcome is known (after-the-fact).

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