WEF_The_Global_Risks_Report_2024 (1).pdf

January 2024 The Global Risks Report 2024 Terms of use and disclaimer This document is published by the World Economic Forum as a contribution to a project, insight area or interaction. The findings, interpretations and...

January 2024 The Global Risks Report 2024 Terms of use and disclaimer This document is published by the World Economic Forum as a contribution to a project, insight area or interaction. The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed herein are a result of a collaborative process facilitated and endorsed by the World Economic Forum but whose results do not necessarily represent the views of the World Economic Forum, nor the entirety of its Members, Partners or other stakeholders. World Economic Forum All rights reserved. No part of this publication may 91-93 route de la Capite be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or CH-1223 Cologny/Geneva transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, Switzerland mechanical, photocopying, or otherwise without the Tel.: +41 (0)22 869 1212 prior permission of the World Economic Forum. Fax: +41 (0)22 786 2744 E-mail: [email protected] ISBN: 978-2-940631-64-3 www.weforum.org The report and an interactive data platform are Copyright © 2024 available at https://www.weforum.org/publications/ by the World Economic Forum global-risks-report-2024/. Global Risks Report 2024 2 Contents Preface 4 Overview of methodology 5 Key findings 6 Chapter 1: Global Risks 2024: At a turning point 12 1.1 The world in 2024 12 1.2 The path to 2026 14 1.3 False information 18 1.4 Rise in conflict 22 1.5 Economic uncertainty 27 1.6 Looking ahead 32 Endnotes 33 Chapter 2: Global Risks 2034: Over the limit 37 2.1 The world in 2034 37 2.2 Structural forces 40 2.3 A 3°C world 42 2.4 AI in charge 50 2.5 The end of development? 57 2.6 Crime wave 68 2.7 Preparing for the decade ahead 76 Endnotes 77 Chapter 3: Responding to global risks 85 3.1 Localized strategies 86 3.2 Breakthrough endeavors 87 3.3 Collective actions 89 3.4 Cross-border coordination 90 3.5 Conclusion 92 Endnotes 94 Appendix A: Definitions and Global Risks List 95 Appendix B: Global Risks Perception Survey 2023-2024 99 Appendix C: Executive Opinion Survey: National Risk Perceptions 102 Appendix D: Risk governance 112 Partner Institutes 115 Acknowledgements 121 Global Risks Report 2024 3 Preface Saadia Zahidi Managing Director Last year’s Global Risks Report warned of a world experimental technologies present existential threats that would not easily rebound from continued to humanity? shocks. As 2024 begins, the 19th edition of the report is set against a backdrop of rapidly These transnational risks will become harder to accelerating technological change and economic handle as global cooperation erodes. In this year’s uncertainty, as the world is plagued by a duo of Global Risks Perception Survey, two-thirds of dangerous crises: climate and conflict. respondents predict that a multipolar order will dominate in the next 10 years, as middle and Underlying geopolitical tensions combined with the great powers set and enforce – but also contest eruption of active hostilities in multiple regions is - current rules and norms. The report considers contributing to an unstable global order characterized the implications of this fragmented world, where by polarizing narratives, eroding trust and insecurity. preparedness for global risks is ever more critical but At the same time, countries are grappling with the is hindered by lack of consensus and cooperation. impacts of record-breaking extreme weather, as It also presents a conceptual framework for climate-change adaptation efforts and resources addressing global risks, identifying the scope for fall short of the type, scale and intensity of climate- “minimum viable effort” for action, depending on the related events already taking place. Cost-of-living nature of the risk. pressures continue to bite, amidst persistently elevated inflation and interest rates and continued The insights in this report are underpinned by economic uncertainty in much of the world. nearly two decades of original data on global risk Despondent headlines are borderless, shared perception. The report highlights the findings from regularly and widely, and a sense of frustration at our annual Global Risks Perception Survey, which the status quo is increasingly palpable. Together, brings together the collective intelligence of nearly this leaves ample room for accelerating risks – like 1,500 global leaders across academia, business, misinformation and disinformation – to propagate government, the international community and civil in societies that have already been politically and society. It also leverages insights from over 200 economically weakened in recent years. thematic experts, including the risk specialists that form the Global Risks Report Advisory Board, Global Just as natural ecosystems can be pushed to the Future Council on Complex Risks, and the Chief Risk limit and become something fundamentally new; Officers Community. We are also deeply grateful such systemic shifts are also taking place across to our long-standing partners, Marsh McLennan other spheres: geostrategic, demographic and and Zurich Insurance Group, for their invaluable technological. This year, we explore the rise of global contributions in shaping the themes and narrative risks against the backdrop of these “structural of the report. Finally, we would like to express our forces” as well as the tectonic clashes between gratitude to the core team that developed this report them. The next set of global conditions may not – Ellissa Cavaciuti-Wishart, Sophie Heading and necessarily be better or worse than the last, but the Kevin Kohler – and to Ricky Li and Attilio Di Battista transition will not be an easy one. for their support. The report explores the global risk landscape in this The future is not fixed. A multiplicity of different phase of transition and governance systems being futures is conceivable over the next decade. stretched beyond their limit. It analyses the most Although this drives uncertainty in the short term, severe perceived risks to economies and societies it also allows room for hope. Alongside global risks over two and 10 years, in the context of these and the era-defining changes underway lie unique influential forces. Could we catapult to a 3°C world opportunities to rebuild trust, optimism and resilience as the impacts of climate change intrinsically rewrite in our institutions and societies. It is our hope that the planet? Have we reached the peak of human the report serves as a vital call to action for open and development for large parts of the global population, constructive dialogue among leaders of government, given deteriorating debt and geo-economic business and civil society to take action to minimize conditions? Could we face an explosion of criminality global risks and build upon long-term opportunities and corruption that feeds on more fragile states and and solutions. more vulnerable populations? Will an “arms race” in Global Risks Report 2024 4 Overview of methodology The Global Risks Perception Survey (GRPS) Refer to Appendix B: Global Risks Perception has underpinned the Global Risks Report for nearly Survey 2023-2024 for more detail on the two decades and is the World Economic Forum’s methodology. premier source of original global risks data. This year’s GRPS has brought together leading insights To complement GRPS data on global risks, the on the evolving global risks landscape from 1,490 report also draws on the World Economic Forum’s experts across academia, business, government, Executive Opinion Survey (EOS) to identify risks the international community and civil society. that pose the most severe threat to each country Responses for the GRPS 2023-2024 were collected over the next two years, as identified by over from 4 September to 9 October 2023. 11,000 business leaders in 113 economies. When considered in context with the GRPS, this data “Global risk” is defined as the possibility of the provides insight into local concerns and priorities occurrence of an event or condition which, if it and points to potential “hot spots” and regional occurs, would negatively impact a significant manifestations of global risks. Refer to Appendix proportion of global GDP, population or natural C: Executive Opinion Survey: National Risk resources. Relevant definitions for each of the Perceptions for more details. 34 global risks are included in Appendix A: Definitions and Global Risks List. Finally, the report integrates the views of leading experts to generate foresight and to support The GRPS 2023-2024 included the following analysis of the survey data. Contributions were components: collected from 55 colleagues across the World Economic Forum’s platforms. The report also – Risk landscape invited respondents to assess harnesses qualitative insights from over 160 experts the likely impact (severity) of global risks over a from across academia, business, government, one-, two- and 10-year horizon to illustrate the the international community and civil society potential development of individual global risks through community meetings, private interviews over time and identify areas of key concern. and thematic workshops conducted from May to October 2023. These include the Global Risks – Consequences asked respondents to consider Advisory Board, Global Future Council on Complex the range of potential impacts of a risk arising, Risks and the Chief Risks Officers Community. to highlight relationships between global risks Refer to Acknowledgements for more detail. and the potential for compounding crises. – Risk governance invited respondents to reflect on which approaches have the most potential for driving action on global risk reduction and preparedness. – Outlook asked respondents to predict the evolution of key aspects underpinning the global risks landscape. Global Risks Report 2024 5  Key findings The Global Risks Report 2024 presents the findings Although globally destabilizing consequences – of the Global Risks Perception Survey (GRPS), such as those seen at the initial outbreak of the which captures insights from nearly 1,500 global Russia-Ukraine war or the COVID-19 pandemic experts. The report analyses global risks through – were largely avoided, the longer-term outlook three time frames to support decision-makers in for these developments could bring further global balancing current crises and longer-term priorities. shocks. Chapter 1 explores the most severe current risks, and those ranked highest by survey respondents, As we enter 2024, 2023-2024 GRPS results over a two-year period, analysing in depth the three highlight a predominantly negative outlook for the risks that have rapidly accelerated into the top world over the next two years that is expected to 10 rankings over the two-year horizon. Chapter 2 worsen over the next decade (Figure A). Surveyed focuses on the top risks emerging over the next in September 2023, the majority of respondents decade against a backdrop of geostrategic, climate, (54%) anticipate some instability and a moderate technological and demographic shifts, diving deeper risk of global catastrophes, while another 30% into four specific risk outlooks. The report concludes expect even more turbulent conditions. The outlook by considering approaches for addressing complex is markedly more negative over the 10-year time and non-linear aspects of global risks during this horizon, with nearly two-thirds of respondents period of global fragmentation. Below are the key expecting a stormy or turbulent outlook. findings of the report. In this year’s report, we contextualize our analysis through four structural forces that will shape the A deteriorating global outlook materialization and management of global risks over the next decade. These are longer-term shifts in the arrangement of and relationship between four Looking back at the events of 2023, plenty of systemic elements of the global landscape: developments captured the attention of people around the world – while others received minimal – Trajectories relating to global warming and scrutiny. Vulnerable populations grappled with lethal related consequences to Earth systems conflicts, from Sudan to Gaza and Israel, alongside (Climate change). record-breaking heat conditions, drought, wildfires and flooding. Societal discontent was palpable – Changes in the size, growth and structure of in many countries, with news cycles dominated populations around the world (Demographic by polarization, violent protests, riots and strikes. bifurcation). FIGURE A Short and long-term global outlook "Which of the following best characterizes your outlook for the world over the following time periods?" 3% 1% Short term (2 years) 27% 54% 15% Long term (10 years) 17% 46% 29% 8% 1% Stormy: Global catastrophic risks looming Turbulent: Upheavals and elevated risk of global catastrophes Unsettled: Some instability, moderate risk of global catastrophes Stable: Isolated disruptions, low risk of global catastrophes Calm: Negligible risk of global catastrophes Source Note World Economic Forum Global Risks The percentages in the graph may not add up to 100% because figures have been rounded Perception Survey 2023-2024. up/down. Global Risks Report 2024 6  implies sub-optimal alignment and decision-making, – Developmental pathways for frontier heightening the risk of missing key moments technologies (Technological acceleration). of intervention, which would result in long-term changes to planetary systems. – Material evolution in the concentration and sources of geopolitical power (Geostrategic shifts). Chapter 2.3: A 3°C world explores the consequences of passing at least one “climate A new set of global conditions is taking shape tipping point” within the next decade. Recent across each of these domains and these transitions research suggests that the threshold for triggering will be characterized by uncertainty and volatility. As long-term, potentially irreversible and self- societies seek to adapt to these changing forces, perpetuating changes to select planetary systems their capacity to prepare for and respond to global is likely to be passed at or before 1.5°C of global risks will be affected. warming, which is currently anticipated to be reached by the early 2030s. Many economies will remain largely unprepared for “non-linear” impacts: Environmental risks could hit the the potential triggering of a nexus of several related socioenvironmental risks has the potential to speed point of no return up climate change, through the release of carbon emissions, and amplify related impacts, threatening Environmental risks continue to dominate the risks climate-vulnerable populations. The collective landscape over all three time frames. Two-thirds of ability of societies to adapt could be overwhelmed, GRPS respondents rank Extreme weather as the considering the sheer scale of potential impacts top risk most likely to present a material crisis on and infrastructure investment requirements, leaving a global scale in 2024 (Figure B), with the warming some communities and countries unable to absorb phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) both the acute and chronic effects of rapid climate cycle projected to intensify and persist until May change. this year. It is also seen as the second-most severe risk over the two-year time frame and similar to last year’s rankings, nearly all environmental risks feature As polarization grows and among the top 10 over the longer term (Figure C). technological risks remain However, GRPS respondents disagree about unchecked, ‘truth’ will come the urgency of environmental risks, in particular under pressure Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse and Critical change to Earth systems. Younger respondents tend to rank these risks far more Societal polarization features among the top highly over the two-year period compared to older three risks over both the current and two-year age groups, with both risks featuring in their top time horizons, ranking #9 over the longer term. In 10 rankings in the short term. The private sector addition, Societal polarization and Economic highlights these risks as top concerns over the downturn are seen as the most interconnected longer term, in contrast to respondents from civil – and therefore influential – risks in the global society or government who prioritize these risks risks network (Figure D), as drivers and possible over shorter time frames. This dissonance in consequences of numerous risks. perceptions of urgency among key decision-makers FIGURE B Current risk landscape "Please select up to five risks that you believe are most likely to present a material crisis on a global scale in 2024." Risk categories Economic Environmental Geopolitical 66% 53% 46% 42% 39% Societal Technological 1st 2 nd 3 rd 4 th 5 th Extreme weather AI-generated Societal and/or Cost-of-living crisis Cyberattacks misinformation political polarization and disinformation Source World Economic Forum Global Risks Perception Survey 2023-2024. Global Risks Report 2024 7  FIGURE C Global risks ranked by severity over the short and long term "Please estimate the likely impact (severity) of the following risks over a 2-year and 10-year period." Risk categories 2 years 10 years Economic 1 st Misinformation and disinformation 1st Extreme weather events Environmental 2 nd Extreme weather events 2 nd Critical change to Earth systems Geopolitical 3 rd Societal polarization 3 rd Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse Societal 4 th Cyber insecurity 4 th Natural resource shortages Technological 5 th Interstate armed conflict 5 th Misinformation and disinformation 6 th Lack of economic opportunity 6 th Adverse outcomes of AI technologies 7th Inflation 7th Involuntary migration 8 th Involuntary migration 8 th Cyber insecurity 9 th Economic downturn 9 th Societal polarization 10 th Pollution 10 th Pollution Source World Economic Forum Global Risks Perception Survey 2023-2024. Emerging as the most severe global risk anticipated risk rankings over the two-year period (Figure C). over the next two years, foreign and domestic Although a “softer landing” appears to be prevailing actors alike will leverage Misinformation and for now, the near-term outlook remains highly disinformation to further widen societal and uncertain. There are multiple sources of continued political divides (Chapter 1.3: False information). supply-side price pressures looming over the next As close to three billion people are expected to two years, from El Niño conditions to the potential head to the electoral polls across several economies escalation of live conflicts. And if interest rates – including Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Mexico, remain relatively high for longer, small- and medium- Pakistan, the United Kingdom and the United sized enterprises and heavily indebted countries will States – over the next two years, the widespread be particularly exposed to debt distress (Chapter use of misinformation and disinformation, and tools 1.5: Economic uncertainty). to disseminate it, may undermine the legitimacy of newly elected governments. Resulting unrest could Economic uncertainty will weigh heavily across most range from violent protests and hate crimes to civil markets, but capital will be the costliest for the most confrontation and terrorism. vulnerable countries. Climate-vulnerable or conflict- prone countries stand to be increasingly locked out Beyond elections, perceptions of reality are likely to of much-needed digital and physical infrastructure, also become more polarized, infiltrating the public trade and green investments and related economic discourse on issues ranging from public health to opportunities. As the adaptive capacities of these social justice. However, as truth is undermined, fragile states erodes further, related societal and the risk of domestic propaganda and censorship environmental impacts are amplified. will also rise in turn. In response to mis- and disinformation, governments could be increasingly Similarly, the convergence of technological empowered to control information based on what advances and geopolitical dynamics will likely create they determine to be “true”. Freedoms relating to a new set of winners and losers across advanced the internet, press and access to wider sources and developing economies alike (Chapter 2.4: AI in of information that are already in decline risk charge). If commercial incentives and geopolitical descending into broader repression of information imperatives, rather than public interest, remain flows across a wider set of countries. the primary drivers of the development of artificial intelligence (AI) and other frontier technologies, the digital gap between high- and low-income countries Economic strains on low- and will drive a stark disparity in the distribution of related benefits – and risks. Vulnerable countries and middle-income people – and communities would be left further behind, digitally countries – are set to grow isolated from turbocharged AI breakthroughs impacting economic productivity, finance, climate, The Cost-of-living crisis remains a major concern education and healthcare, as well as related job in the outlook for 2024 (Figure B). The economic creation. risks of Inflation (#7) and Economic downturn (#9) are also notable new entrants to the top 10 Global Risks Report 2024 8  FIGURE D Global risks landscape: an interconnections map Intrastate violence Censorship and surveillance Natural resource shortages Erosion of human rights Misinformation and disinformation Critical change to Earth systems Involuntary migration Terrorist attacks Adverse outcomes of frontier technologies Biodiversity loss and Technological power ecosystem collapse concentration Cyber insecurity Interstate armed conflict Pollution Extreme weather events Societal Adverse outcomes Non-weather related natural disasters polarization of AI technologies Disruptions to Infectious diseases Chronic health conditions critical infrastructure Biological, chemical Insufficient infrastructure and services or nuclear hazards Disruptions to a systemically important supply chain Lack of economic opportunity Labour shortages Concentration of Geoeconomic confrontation strategic resources Inflation Economic downturn Debt Illicit economic activity Unemployment Nodes Edges Asset bubble bursts Risk influence Relative influence High High Medium Medium Low Low Risk categories Economic Environmental Geopolitical Societal Technological Source World Economic Forum Global Risks Perception Survey 2023-2024. Over the longer term, developmental progress and Simmering geopolitical tensions living standards are at risk. Economic, environmental and technological trends are likely to entrench existing combined with technology will challenges around labour and social mobility, blocking drive new security risks individuals from income and skilling opportunities, and therefore the ability to improve economic status As both a product and driver of state fragility, (Chapter 2.5: End of development?). Lack of Interstate armed conflict is a new entrant into the economic opportunity is a top 10 risk over the top risk rankings over the two-year horizon (Figure two-year period, but is seemingly less of a concern C). As the focus of major powers becomes stretched for global decision-makers over the longer-term across multiple fronts, conflict contagion is a key horizon, dropping to #11 (Figure E). High rates of job concern (Chapter 1.4: Rise in conflict). There are churn – both job creation and destruction – have the several frozen conflicts at risk of heating up in the near potential to result in deeply bifurcated labour markets term, due to spillover threats or growing state fragility. between and within developed and developing economies. While the productivity benefits of these This becomes an even more worrying risk in the economic transitions should not be underestimated, context of recent technological advances. In the manufacturing- or services-led export growth might absence of concerted collaboration, a globally no longer offer traditional pathways to greater fragmented approach to regulating frontier prosperity for developing countries. technologies is unlikely to prevent the spread of its most dangerous capabilities and, in fact, may The narrowing of individual pathways to stable encourage proliferation (Chapter 2.4: AI in charge). livelihoods would also impact metrics of human Over the longer-term, technological advances, development – from poverty to access to education including in generative AI, will enable a range of and healthcare. Marked changes in the social non-state and state actors to access a superhuman contract as intergenerational mobility declines would breadth of knowledge to conceptualize and develop radically reshape societal and political dynamics in new tools of disruption and conflict, from malware both advanced and developing economies. to biological weapons. Global Risks Report 2024 9 In this environment, the lines between the state, including implications for high-stakes hotspots: the organized crime, private militia and terrorist groups Russia-Ukraine war, the Middle East conflict and would blur further. A broad set of non-state actors tensions over Taiwan (Chapter 1.4: Rise in conflict). will capitalize on weakened systems, cementing Coordinated efforts to isolate “rogue” states are the cycle between conflict, fragility, corruption and likely to be increasingly futile, while international crime. Illicit economic activity (#31) is one of the governance and peacekeeping efforts shown to be lowest-ranked risks over the 10-year period but is ineffective at “policing” conflict could be sidelined. seen to be triggered by a number of the top-ranked risks over the two- and 10-year horizons (Figure D). The shifting balance of influence in global affairs Economic hardship – combined with technological is particularly evident in the internationalization of advances, resource stress and conflict – is likely to conflicts – where pivotal powers will increasingly push more people towards crime, militarization or lend support and resources to garner political radicalization and contribute to the globalization of allies – but will also shape the longer-term trajectory organized crime in targets and operations (Chapter and management of global risks more broadly. For 2.6: Crime wave). example, access to highly concentrated tech stacks will become an even more critical component The growing internationalization of conflicts by of soft power for major powers to cement their a wider set of powers could lead to deadlier, influence. However, other countries with competitive prolonged warfare and overwhelming humanitarian advantages in upstream value chains – from critical crises. With multiple states engaged in proxy, and minerals to high-value IP and capital – will likely perhaps even direct warfare, the incentives to leverage these economic assets to obtain access condense decision time through the integration to advanced technologies, leading to novel power of AI will grow. The creep of machine intelligence dynamics. into conflict decision-making – to autonomously select targets and determine objectives – would significantly raise the risk of accidental or intentional Opportunities for action to escalation over the next decade. address global risks in a fragmented world Ideological and geoeconomic Cooperation will come under pressure in this divides will disrupt the future of fragmented, in-flux world. However there remain governance key opportunities for action that can be taken locally or internationally, individually or collaboratively – that A deeper divide on the international stage between can significantly reduce the impact of global risks. multiple poles of power and between the Global North and South would paralyze international Localized strategies leveraging investment governance mechanisms and divert the attention and regulation can reduce the impact of those and resources of major powers away from urgent inevitable risks that we can prepare for, and both global risks. the public and private sector can play a key role to extend these benefits to all. Single breakthrough Asked about the global political outlook for endeavors, grown through efforts to prioritize the cooperation on risks over the next decade, two- future and focus on research and development, thirds of GRPS respondents feel that we will face a can similarly help make the world a safer place. The multipolar or fragmented order in which middle and collective actions of individual citizens, companies great powers contest, set and enforce regional rules and countries may seem insignificant on their own, and norms. Over the next decade, as dissatisfaction but at critical mass they can move the needle on with the continued dominance of the Global global risk reduction. Finally, even in a world that is North grows, an evolving set of states will seek a increasingly fragmented, cross-border collaboration more pivotal influence on the global stage across at scale remains critical for risks that are decisive for multiple domains, asserting their power in military, human security and prosperity. technological and economic terms. The next decade will usher in a period of significant As states in the Global South bear the brunt of a change, stretching our adaptive capacity to the changing climate, the aftereffects of pandemic- limit. A multiplicity of entirely different futures is era crises and geoeconomic rifts between major conceivable over this time frame, and a more powers, growing alignment and political alliances positive path can be shaped through our actions to within this historically disparate group of countries address global risks today. could increasingly shape security dynamics, Global Risks Report 2024 10  FIGURE E Global risks ranked by severity "Please estimate the likely impact (severity) of the following risks over a 2-year and 10-year period." Short term (2 years) Long term (10 years) 1 st Misinformation and disinformation 1st Extreme weather events 2 nd Extreme weather events 2 nd Critical change to Earth systems 3 rd Societal polarization 3 rd Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse 4 th Cyber insecurity 4 th Natural resource shortages 5 th Interstate armed conflict 5 th Misinformation and disinformation 6 th Lack of economic opportunity 6 th Adverse outcomes of AI technologies 7 th Inflation 7 th Involuntary migration 8 th Involuntary migration 8 th Cyber insecurity 9 th Economic downturn 9 th Societal polarization 10 th Pollution 10 th Pollution 11 th Critical change to Earth systems 11 th Lack of economic opportunity 12 th Technological power concentration 12 th Technological power concentration 13 th Natural resource shortages 13 th Concentration of strategic resources 14 th Geoeconomic confrontation 14 th Censorship and surveillance 15 th Erosion of human rights 15 th Interstate armed conflict 16 th Debt 16 th Geoeconomic confrontation 17 th Intrastate violence 17 th Debt 18 th Insufficient public infrastructure and services 18 th Erosion of human rights 19 th Disruptions to a systemically important supply chain 19 th Infectious diseases 20 th Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse 20 th Chronic health conditions 21 st Censorship and surveillance 21 st Insufficient public infrastructure and services 22 nd Labour shortages 22 nd Intrastate violence 23 rd Infectious diseases 23 rd Disruptions to critical infrastructure 24 th Concentration of strategic resources 24 th Adverse outcomes of frontier technologies 25 th Disruptions to critical infrastructure 25 th Disruptions to a systemically important supply chain 26 th Asset bubble bursts 26 th Biological, chemical or nuclear hazards 27 th Chronic health conditions 27 th Unemployment 28 th Illicit economic activity 28 th Economic downturn 29 th Adverse outcomes of AI technologies 29 th Labour shortages 30 th Unemployment 30 th Asset bubble bursts 31 st Biological, chemical or nuclear hazards 31 st Illicit economic activity 32 nd Terrorist attacks 32 nd Inflation 33 rd Non-weather related natural disasters 33 rd Non-weather related natural disasters 34 th Adverse outcomes of frontier technologies 34 th Terrorist attacks Risk categories Economic Environmental Geopolitical Societal Technological Source World Economic Forum Global Risks Perception Survey 2023-2024. Global Risks Report 2024 11  1 Global Risks 2024: At a turning point The Global Risks Report analyses global risks likely to heighten by 2026. Chapter 2 addresses over one-, two- and 10-year horizons to support the 10-year outlook and how evolving risks may decision-makers in adopting a dual vision that interact to create four potential high-risk outlooks balances short- and longer-term risks. This for the world. The third and final chapter examines chapter addresses the outlook for the first two the concept of cooperation, showcasing different time frames and examines selected risks that are approaches to address global risks. 1.1 The world in 2024 The aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic and As we enter 2024, results of the Forum’s Global ongoing Russia-Ukraine war has exposed cracks Risks Perception Survey 2023-2024 (GRPS) in societies that are being further strained by highlight a predominantly negative outlook for episodic upheaval. Yet the global system has thus the world over the short term that is expected to far proved surprisingly resilient. A widely anticipated worsen over the long term (Figure 1.1). Surveyed recession failed to materialize last year, and financial in September 2023, the majority of respondents turbulence was quickly subdued, but the outlook (54%) anticipate some instability and a moderate remains uncertain.1 Political strife and violent risk of global catastrophes, while another 27% conflicts, from Niger and Sudan to Gaza and Israel, expect greater turbulence and 3% expect global have captured the attention and apprehension of catastrophic risks to materialize in the short term. populations worldwide in some instances while Only 16% expect a stable or calm outlook in the attracting little focus in others. These developments next two years. The outlook is markedly more have not yet led to wider regional conflicts – negative over the 10-year timeframe, with 63% nor have they created globally destabilizing of respondents expecting a stormy or turbulent consequences such as those seen at the initial outlook and less than 10% expecting a calm or outbreak of the war in Ukraine or the COVID-19 stable situation. pandemic – but their long-term outlook could bring further shocks. FIGURE 1.1 Short and long-term global outlook "Which of the following best characterizes your outlook for the world over the following time periods?" 3% 1% Short term (2 years) 27% 54% 15% Long term (10 years) 17% 46% 29% 8% 1% Stormy: Global catastrophic risks looming Turbulent: Upheavals and elevated risk of global catastrophes Unsettled: Some instability, moderate risk of global catastrophes Stable: Isolated disruptions, low risk of global catastrophes Calm: Negligible risk of global catastrophes Source Note World Economic Forum Global Risks The percentages in the graph may not add up to 100% because figures have been rounded Perception Survey 2023-2024. up/down. Global Risks Report 2024 12  GRPS results for 2024, 2026 and 2034 highlight (ENSO) cycle, is expected to strengthen and persist current crises that corrode resilience, as well as until May this year.3 This could continue to set new new and rapidly evolving sources of risk that will records in heat conditions, with extreme heatwaves, reshape the next decade. For the one-year time drought, wildfires and flooding anticipated. frame, respondents were asked to select up to five risks that they feel are most likely to present a AI-generated misinformation and disinformation material crisis on a global scale in 2024. Results are (53%) and Societal and/or political polarization summarized in Figure 1.2. (46%) follow in second and third place. Many countries are still struggling to regain lost years After the hottest Northern Hemisphere summer of progress that arose from the COVID-19 in recorded history in 2023,2 two-thirds of pandemic, creating fertile ground for misinformation respondents selected Extreme weather (66%) as and disinformation to take hold and polarize the top risk faced in 2024. El Niño, or the warming communities, societies and countries. phase of the alternating El Niño-Southern Oscillation FIGURE 1.2 Current risk landscape “Please select up to five risks that you believe are most likely to present a material crisis on a global scale in 2024.” Extreme weather 66% AI-generated misinformation 53% and disinformation Societal and/or political polarization 46% Cost-of-living crisis 42% Cyberattacks 39% Economic downturn 33% Disrupted supply chains for 25% critical goods and resources Escalation or outbreak of 25% interstate armed conflict(s) Attacks on critical infrastructure 19% Disrupted supply chains for food 18% Censorship and erosion of free speech 16% Disrupted supply chains for energy 14% Public debt distress 14% Skills or labour shortages 13% Accidental or intentional nuclear event 12% Violent civil strikes and riots 11% Accidental or intentional release 9% of biological agents Institutional collapse 7% within the financial sector Housing bubble burst 4% Tech bubble burst 4% 0 25 50 75 100 Share of respondents (%) Risk categories Economic Environmental Geopolitical Societal Technological Source World Economic Forum Global Risks Perception Survey 2023-2024. Global Risks Report 2024 13  Mirroring the previous year’s survey results, the higher;5 however, a warmer winter in the Northern Cost-of-living crisis (42%) and Cyberattacks Hemisphere, for example, followed by the easing of (39%) remain major concerns in the outlook overall the El Niño cycle over the summer, could partially and appear as a top-three concern for government alleviate further energy price spikes resulting from and private-sector respondents, respectively. The any escalation of the Israel-Gaza or Russia-Ukraine Cost-of-living crisis is ranked higher by younger conflicts. age groups: it was selected by 55% of respondents aged 39 or below, compared to just 28% of those Notably, while the survey was conducted before aged 60 or over.4 the outbreak of the former conflict, a quarter of respondents rank the Escalation or outbreak of Although energy and food crises ranked among interstate armed conflict(s) (25%) as among the the top risks of 2023, this year less than one-fifth top five risks for 2024, pointing to a broader set of of respondents selected Disrupted supply chains concerns. At more than 200,000 deaths in 2022, for food (18%) or Disrupted supply chains for conflict deaths are at the highest level in decades, energy (14%) as core concerns for 2024. The driven predominantly by state-based armed conflict.6 survey was conducted in September of 2023, thus the outlook may have since shifted given the Risks relating to the financial, tech and real-estate conflict in the Middle East, particularly if hostilities sectors are towards the bottom of respondents’ escalate. Climate pressures may yet drive prices concerns for 2024. 1.2 The path to 2026 Weakened systems only require the smallest price stability and economic growth (Chapter shock to edge past the tipping point of resilience. 1.5: Economic uncertainty). Economic risks In the second time frame covered by the survey, are notable new entrants to the top 10 rankings respondents were asked to rank the likely impact this year, with both Inflation (#7) and Economic of risks in the next two years. The results suggest downturn (#9) featuring in the two-year time that corrosive socioeconomic vulnerabilities will be frame (Figure 1.3). Economic risks are prioritized in amplified in the near term, with looming concerns particular by public- and private-sector respondents about an Economic downturn (Chapter 1.5), (Figure 1.5). Geoeconomic confrontation (#14) resurgent risks such as Interstate armed conflict is a marked absence from the top 10 rankings this (Chapter 1.4), and rapidly evolving risks like year (Figure 1.4) and has decreased in perceived Misinformation and disinformation (Chapter 1.3). severity compared to last year’s scores. However, like related economic risks, it features among the As discussed in last year’s Global Risks Report, less top concerns for both public- and private-sector predictable and harder-to-handle inflation heightens respondents (at #10 and #11, respectively) as a the risk of miscalibration of efforts to balance continuing source of economic volatility. FIGURE 1.3 Global risks ranked by severity over the short term (2 years) "Please estimate the likely impact (severity) of the following risks over a 2-year period." 1st Misinformation and disinformation 6 th Lack of economic opportunity 2 nd Extreme weather events 7th Inflation 3 rd Societal polarization 8 th Involuntary migration 4 th Cyber insecurity 9 th Economic downturn 5 th Interstate armed conflict 10 th Pollution Risk categories Economic Environmental Geopolitical Societal Technological Source World Economic Forum Global Risks Perception Survey 2023-2024. Global Risks Report 2024 14  FIGURE 1.4 Annual change in global risk perceptions over the short term (2 years) Persistent concerns Biggest increase in ranking Biggest fall in ranking 2 nd Extreme weather - 12th Technological power 17 14 th Geoeconomic confrontation 11 concentration Overall ranking 3 rd Societal polarization 2 1st Misinformation and 15 30 th Unemployment 11 disinformation 4 th Cyber insecurity 4 5 th Interstate armed 9 31st Biological, chemical 10 conflict or nuclear hazards 8 th Involuntary migration 2 18 th Insufficient public infrastructure 9 16 th Debt 5 and services Risk categories Economic Environmental Geopolitical Societal Technological Source Note World Economic Forum Global Risks Bolded risks refer to global risks that are currently in the short-term top 10 risks list, or were Perception Surveys 2022-2023 and 2023-2024. formerly in the top 10 in GRPS 2022-2023. Refer to Appendix B: Global Risks Perception Survey 2022-2023 for further information on changes to the global risk list. Numbers after arrows refer to directional change in rankings between GRPS 2022-2023 and GRPS 2023-2024. FIGURE 1.5 Severity by stakeholder over the short term (2 years) International Civil society organizations Academia Government Private sector 1st Misinformation and Extreme weather events Misinformation and Extreme weather events Misinformation and disinformation disinformation disinformation 2 nd Extreme weather events Misinformation and Extreme weather events Misinformation and Extreme weather events disinformation disinformation 3 rd Societal polarization Societal polarization Societal polarization Cyber insecurity Cyber insecurity 4 th Lack of economic Interstate armed conflict Lack of economic Societal polarization Societal polarization opportunity opportunity 5 th Involuntary migration Natural resource shortages Interstate armed conflict Lack of economic Inflation opportunity 6 th Erosion of human rights Involuntary migration Pollution Pollution Economic downturn 7th Critical change to Pollution Critical change to Earth Involuntary migration Interstate armed conflict Earth systems systems 8 th Pollution Lack of economic Cyber insecurity Critical change to Technological power opportunity Earth systems concentration 9 th Interstate armed conflict Cyber insecurity Involuntary migration Inflation Lack of economic opportunity 10 th Cyber insecurity Intrastate violence Technological power Geoeconomic Involuntary migration concentration confrontation Risk categories Economic Environmental Geopolitical Societal Technological Source Note World Economic Forum Global Risks Sample size by stakeholder group varied, and all respondents were weighted equally for the Perception Survey 2023-2024. purposes of global rankings. These results are based on approximately the following: civil society, n=152 (10% of total); international organisations, n=127 (9%); academia, n=276 (19%); government, n=183 (12%); and private sector, n=715 (48%). Global Risks Report 2024 15  Misinformation and disinformation has risen polarization and economic hardship are diminishing rapidly in rankings to first place for the two-year trust and a sense of shared values. The erosion time frame, and the risk is likely to become more of social cohesion is leaving ample room for new acute as elections in several economies take and evolving risks to propagate in turn. Societal place this year (Chapter 1.3: False information). polarization, alongside Economic downturn, Societal polarization is the third-most severe is seen as one of the most central risks in the risk over the short term, and a consistent concern interconnected “risks network”, with the greatest across nearly all stakeholder groupings (Figures potential to trigger and be influenced by other risks 1.5 and 1.6). Divisive factors such as political (Figure 1.7). FIGURE 1.6 Risk perceptions by age over the short term (2 years) 40%) that number of times an approach was identified have overlapping IP-numbers and demographic was calculated for each risk. Results are answers with a fully recorded response (100%). illustrated in Figure 3.5. To ensure legibility, the Global Risks Report 2024 100  – Current risk landscape: 1,490 respondents – Global efforts: 984 respondents answered selected at least one risk. over at least one time frame. – Short- and long-term risks landscape: 1,312 – Global political environment for cooperation: respondents evaluated the severity of at least 981 respondents answered. one risk in one time frame. – Outlook for the world: 992 respondents – Short-term severity: 1,312 respondents answered over at least one timeframe. evaluated the severity of at least one risk. – Sample distribution: 1,490 respondents – Long-term severity: 1,311 respondents who answered at least one non-demographic evaluated the severity of at least one risk. question were used to calculate the sample distribution by place of residence (region), – Consequences: 1,049 respondents paired at gender, age, area of expertise and organization least one risk with one consequence. type. – Risk governance: 952 respondents selected at Figure B.1 presents some key descriptive least one approach for at least one risk. statistics and information about the profiles of the respondents. – Risk outlook: 1,001 respondents answered at least one question. TA B L E B. 1 Survey sample composition Gender Age group 27% 27% Other, 1% 17% Female, 38% 12% 12% 5% Male, 61%