Sustainable Development Slides PDF

Updated through 16 Nov 2024: https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/?dm_id=world2  NASA Climate Spiral https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/5190/ Global Temperature Anomalies from 1880-2023 https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/5207/ Zonal Climate Anomalies 1880-2023 https://s...

Updated through 16 Nov 2024: https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/?dm_id=world2  NASA Climate Spiral https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/5190/ Global Temperature Anomalies from 1880-2023 https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/5207/ Zonal Climate Anomalies 1880-2023 https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/5209/ https://epi.envirocenter.yale.edu/  Sustainable Development 1983: UN World Commission on Environment and Development But commonly known as the Brundtland Commission Published report: Our Common Future (1987) Generally given credit for coining the term, sustainable development What is SD? development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. Over time, the term has come to involve 3 pillars: economic viability environmental protection social equity When the West developed, they only gave primacy to one. And now as the South develops, why should they need to pay attention to all 3? Is that fair?  The Global Environment The Puzzle: Nearly everyone values the environment and agrees that it must be protected. Given this broad-based support, why is international environmental cooperation so hard to achieve?  A tale of two treaties The Relative Success: Ozone Depletion 1987: Montreal Protocol. 22 states agree to cut CFCs by 50% by 1998. Evidence of ozone depletion mounts 1990: 81 states agree to eliminate CFCs by 2000. 1992: Major industrial nations agree to phase out CFCs by 1995. Why a collective action problem? A fund was set up to help poorer countries to introduce new technologies. Given until 2010 to eliminate CFCs. Atmospheric concentrations of CFCs have fallen. https://ourworldindata.org/ozone-layer https://youtu.be/6BUT16jfoKk Why was “ozone” a success? Small group size CFCs (and other ozone deleting chemicals) were only produced in a handful of countries. Availability of alternatives Chemicals that serve the same purpose, but don’t destroy the ozone. And often made by the same company that made the CFCs.  The Continuing Failure: Climate Change How to reduce greenhouse gasses (GHGs)? Build institutions that help countries cooperate. 1992: UN Framework on Climate Change (UNFCC). Every year, a COP (Conference of Parties). 1997: COP3. Kyoto Protocol signed by 170 countries. Went into effect 2008, setting specific targets for reducing GHGs. Cut emissions 7% below 2005 levels. The North: binding targets. The South would set voluntary targets for reductions. US is the only major developed country which has not ratified. Green: Annex B Parties with binding targets in the 2nd period Purple: Annex B Parties with binding targets in the 1st period, but not in the 2nd Blue: Non-Annex B parties without binding targets Yellow: Annex B parties with binding targets in 1st period, but withdrew from protocol Orange: Signatories to the Protocol that have not ratified Red: Other UN members that are not party to the Protocol.  COP 21 (Paris Climate Conference in 2016) Largest meeting ever: 196 countries participating. As of Nov 2019, 187 have become party to it. Each country will determine its contribution to mitigate global warming. No legally binding commitments. NDCs: Nationally Determined Contributions NDCs would be ratcheted up every 5 years. All are expected to participate in reductions of GHGs, unlike Kyoto. Goal: keep global warming well below 2° C. Nov. 2019: US announces it will formally withdraw from climate change treaty effective 11/2020. Biden has since rejoined. Since 2016, the goal has shifted to remaining under 1.5° C.  How do we know Climate Change is Real? https://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/ The Evidence of Rapid Climate Change is Compelling: Global temperature is rising The ocean is getting warmer Ice sheets are shrinking Glaciers are retreating Snow cover is decreasing Sea level is rising Arctic Sea Ice is declining Extreme events are increasing in frequency Ocean Acidification is increasing  Where do we stand? Annual CO2 emissions: Who emits the most? https://www.wri.org/insights/interactive-chart-shows-changes-worlds-top- 10-emitters Where do we stand? Who emits the most?  But who has produced the most historically? https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/paris-global-climate-change-agreements  COP 26 (Glasgow in 2021) “Keep 1.5 alive” Key elements agreed to at COP 26: Accelerate the ratchet: new NDCs by 2022 rather than 2025. “Phase-down” unabated coal power. Phase out inefficient fossil-fuel subsidies. More funding for developing nations Adaptation: responding to climate change already occurring; Mitigation: reducing/stabilizing emissions of GHGs Sectoral pledges (“coalitions of the willing”) Voluntary carbon markets  Impacts of the Paris and Glasgow Commitments In 2020, the global average was 1.1-1.3°C warmer than pre-industrial levels, and that figure is rising by 0.1-0.3°C each decade. The pledges made at Paris (2016) led climate modellers to project a best guess of 2.7°C of warming by 2100. The more ambitious ones made in Glasgow reduced that by ~0.3°C.  2.4° Still too much warming This could be improved upon if the countries that have pledged to move to “net- zero” emissions over the next decades. But right now, these are just pledges that will take decades to reach.  COP 27 (Sharm el-Sheikh in 2022) Taking place in the middle of the Ukraine War and an energy crisis, has the clean-energy transition been derailed? No significant new commitments to draw down emissions. In earlier agreements, developed countries had already agreed to set up funds that will help developing countries with: mitigation: preventing or reducing the emissions of GHG. adaptation: adjusting to the current and future effects of climate change. At COP 27 there was also an agreement on: loss & damage: payments for direct damage  COP 28 (Dubai in 2023) A global environmental conference in a major oil producing country?? The COPs captured by the global oil industry? The President of the conference: Sultan Al Jaber, who is the CEO of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company!! For the first time, the conference agreement states that the world must shift away from fossil fuels. A major step, but no clear commitment! And the next COP, November 2024? Azerbaijan  COP 29 (Baku in 2023) Again: A global environmental conference in authoritarian oil producer. The COPs have clearly been captured by the global oil industry. Saudi Arabia is fighting hard to make sure last year’s commitment to phase out fossil fuels is NEVER again mentioned at any international forum. As I post these slides, the conference is still going on. Expect some updates by the time we get to this slide next week.  The Global Environment The Puzzle: Nearly everyone values the environment and agrees that it must be protected. Given this broad-based support, why is international environmental cooperation so hard to achieve?  Who should bear the costs? Different perceptions: The South sees the North as the primary culprit for current problem. The North produced the greenhouse gasses that are causing the problem. The North sees the South as the primary source of rising emissions. Any reductions the North makes will be swamped by rising Southern emissions.  Will technology save us? Keep burning fossil fuels because a technology will be invented (or a current tech scaled up) to reduce GHGs. Carbon capture: burying carbon; sucking it out of the air; … Solar power breakthrough Nuclear power Fusion Clean hydrogen power (fuel cells) etc, etc.  Apocalyptic Optimism?? Not just scream but dream. Is it hopeless, or should we be hopeful? Somehow human ingenuity and technology will get us through this. Sure, rich countries and individuals have the luxury of such optimism, But what about the poor in the developing world?  US v China … again? Could China be the green champion? A state-directed approach with the government investing heavily in green tech. Or the US? Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act: the largest climate-related investment in American history. But now Trump... Will he try to reverse the progress that has been made? He is certain to pull out of the Paris Agreement. That will leave global leadership on the climate to China.