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1 Introduction to Energy Shortage Crisis Energy is an important part of modern living; it powers buildings, homes, companies, and transportation. However, the world is currently experiencing an energy shortage crisis due to the increasing energy consumption and having limited supply of energy source...

1 Introduction to Energy Shortage Crisis Energy is an important part of modern living; it powers buildings, homes, companies, and transportation. However, the world is currently experiencing an energy shortage crisis due to the increasing energy consumption and having limited supply of energy sources, and just like many other countries, the Philippines has also its own set of challenges in managing the energy shortage crisis. Overview of Current Energy Situation in the Philippines As of 2022, the Philippines has a total installed capacity of electricity was around 28.3 thousand megawatts. Of this, over 12 thousand megawatts came from coal-powered power plants, while power facilities running on renewable energy had a total installed capacity of around 8.26 thousand megawatts, according to the Department of Energy [1, 2]. Figure 1 illustrates the 2022 data depicting the total installed capacity, measured in megawatts, of various energy sources within the Philippines (Source: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1266402/philippines-installed-power-capacity-by-source/) The Philippines is now facing a serious energy shortage crisis as the electricity and fuel demand continues to grow, while the supply remains limited and unreliable. Some major factors that cause this energy shortages in the Philippines are: The Depletion of the Malampaya gas fields: The electricity sector in the Philippines is composed of three main grids: Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao. The Luzon grid is the largest and serves about 70% of the population, meanwhile 30 % of Luzon’s energy needs is being supplied by the Malampaya gas fields, but they are expected to be depleted by 2024 [3]. Reliance on imported fuel: While the country has indigenous sources of energy, such as natural gas, geothermal, hydro, solar, wind, and biomass, which are used for majority of its energy supply but they are not enough to meet the growing demand [4] . Hence, the country relies on imported oil and coal for the rest of its energy needs which accounted for 29.1% and 19.4% of the total primary energy supply in 2021, respectively [5]. This makes the country vulnerable to fluctuations in global oil prices. Growing demand for energy: The Philippines' population is currently over 117 million and it’s still growing [6]. As the population grows and its economy is developing, it leads to an increase in energy demand. Historical Overview of Energy Shortages in the Philippines The Philippines has faced energy problems since becoming independent in 1946. The first big issue was in 1973-1974 when there was a global shortage of oil. Since the Philippines relied a lot on imported oil for energy, this caused fuel and electricity shortages, harming the economy [7]. The second major problem happened from 1989 to 1993. This was due to natural disasters, political issues, and poorly managed power projects. This made the Philippines run out of electricity for four years. The country experienced frequent blackouts, sometimes lasting up to 12 hours a day, affecting factories, businesses, and public services. [8]. These are a few examples of energy crises the Philippines has faced. Even today, the country still deals with energy shortages in some areas, especially when demand is highest. This happens despite efforts to fix the problem. One reason is that the Philippines relies a lot on energy from other countries. Also, it's hard to build and improve the power systems quickly enough to keep up with the growing need for electricity. Energy Demand vs. Supply in the Philippines In 2020, the Philippines experienced a total non-coincidental peak demand of 15,282 MW, which represents a decrease of 299 MW or -1.9% compared to the peak demand in 2019. The decline in demand can largely be attributed to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. In the same year, a total of 26,286 MW is the energy supply [9]. The power demand in Luzon this 2023 has exceeded the levels seen in 2022. The highest power demand on the Luzon grid so far this year was recorded at 12,235 megawatts (MW) on April 19, surpassing the peak demand of 12,113 MW in 2022 [10]. Figure 2 illustrates the 2020 Power Demand and Supply Highlights of the Department of Energy. (Source: https://www.doe.gov.ph/sites/default/files/pdf/electric_power/2020_power-situation- By 2040, the nation's power consumption is expected to have increased to 49,287 MW, growing at a rate of approximately 5% per year. In order to fulfill the demand, including reserve needs, 43,765 MW of extra capacity needs to be brought [11]. A target of 35 percent for renewable energy (RE) in the power generating mix by 2030 and 50 percent by 2040 is set under the planned National Renewable Energy Program (NREP) 2020–2040 [12]. 1.1 Understanding Energy Shortage Definition of Energy Shortage An energy shortage occurs when we use up energy resources faster than they can naturally replenish themselves. These resources are part of our environment, they exist without human intervention and can be either renewable or non-renewable. We must value them because they exist naturally. The depletion of natural resources includes activities like water usage, farming, fossil fuel consumption, fishing, logging, and mining [13]. The Four Ways of Measuring Energy Energy can be measured in four main ways: primary, secondary, final, and useful. Each one helps us understand how energy moves from where it comes from to where it can be used [14]. 1. Primary Energy: This is energy in its natural form, like coal or oil before we do anything to it. 2. Secondary Energy: When we turn primary energy into something we can use, like making electricity from coal. 3. Final Energy: This is the energy we use every day, like the electricity in our homes or the gas in our cars. 4. Useful Energy: This is the energy we use to do things, like the light from a bulb or the movement of a car. These four ways help us understand how energy goes from where it's found to where we need it. It's important to know these differences when we talk about energy. Types of Energy Sources in the Philippines In general, there are two primary categories of energy: renewable and non-renewable. Renewable energy is produced using resources that are replenished naturally, such as wind, geothermal heat, sunlight, biomass, and hydropower. These resources are always available, providing an endless supply [15]. Figure 3 illustrates the various types of renewable energy sources (Source: https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/) On the other hand, non-renewable energy comes from resources that can run out, like oil, natural gas, coal, and uranium. These resources, often referred to as fossil fuels, were created over a long time from ancient plant and animal remains buried deep underground, and once they're used up, they can't be replenished [15]. Figure 4 illustrates the various types of non - renewable energy sources. (Source: https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/) The Philippines is rich in both non-renewable and renewable energy resources. According to the Department of Energy, as of 2022, the Philippines' energy mix consists of coal (44%), natural gas (13.2%), renewable energy sources like hydro, geothermal, wind, biomass, and solar (29.2%), and oil-based energy sources like diesel and petroleum (13.6%). During the same year, the total power plant capacity in the country reached 28,258 megawatts (MW) [1]. Figure 5 illustrates the 2022 power generation capacity of the Philippines by energy source based on the data from the Department of Energy (Source: https://www.doe.gov.ph/sites/default/files/pdf/energy_statistics/01_Summary%20of%202022%20Power%20Statistics.pdf) The energy sector in the Philippines is influenced by its growing population and fast-expanding economy. Most of the primary energy supply comes from sources within the country, with additional supplies coming from imported oil and coal. Although energy consumption has been steadily increasing, there was a slight dip in 2020 due to the pandemic. Nevertheless, the country's energy self-sufficiency ratio is at 50 percent, indicating some challenges in meeting its energy requirements [16]. Human Consumption of Energy Over Time The amount of energy that people use has changed over time. During the pre-industrial era, humans depended on renewable sources such as biomass (wood, animal waste) and muscle power (human labor and animal labor). Then followed the industrial revolution, which fueled industrialization by introducing coal as a significant energy source. The 19th and 20th centuries saw fossil fuels like oil and natural gas cause a huge spike in energy use. Today, we're focused on efficiency and ecofriendly energy sources. We're shifting towards cleaner options like solar and wind, aiming to reduce carbon emissions. This transition needs global collaboration to both protect the environment and meet our growing energy needs [17]. Importance of Energy in Philippine Society Energy plays a vital role in the development and progress of any society, and the Philippines is no exception. As a rapidly growing economy with a population of over 100 million people, the demand for energy in the country has been steadily increasing. Energy is used in all sectors of the Philippine economy, including industry, transportation, agriculture, and services. It is essential for manufacturing goods, transporting people and goods, powering farms, and providing essential services such as healthcare and education. Energy is also important for improving the quality of life of Filipinos. It provides access to electricity, which is essential for lighting, cooking, and communication. Energy also powers appliances that make life more comfortable and convenient, such as refrigerators, air conditioners, and washing machines [5]. Figure 6 illustrates the percent total final energy consumption by average share per sector from year 2020 – 2040 (source: https://www.doe.gov.ph/sites/default/files/pdf/pep/PEP-2020-2040-Final%20eCopy-as-of-15-June-2023.pdf pp.179) 1.2 Energy Generation, Consumption, and Waste Methods on How Energy is Being Processed and Consumed Extraction and Manufacturing Processes: This stage begins with resource extraction, where raw materials like oil, coal, and natural gas are collected from the environment. Various methods are used, such as drilling for oil and mining for coal [18]. Refinement: Once extracted, these raw materials usually require refinement to remove impurities and create usable products like gasoline [19]. Conversion: After extraction and refinement, energy resources need to be converted into usable forms. This is done through methods like burning coal or natural gas to produce electricity, which is then distributed for various purposes, including powering homes and industries [19]. Conversion and Consumption of Energy: At this stage, energy is converted into different forms for specific uses such as electricity for homes or fuel for vehicles [20]. This process involves a series of steps to take raw materials from the environment and turn them into the energy needed to power our daily and is required for a wide range of things, such as generating electricity to light our homes and power our appliances, transporting people and goods using vehicles like automobiles, trains, and airplanes, and powering infrastructure, commercial sectors, and businesses [21]. Energy Generation Methods in the Philippines Renewable Energy: Hydropower: The Philippines has several hydropower plants that generate electricity by harnessing the energy of flowing water [22]. Geothermal: The Philippines is located along the Pacific Ring of Fire and has abundant geothermal resources. Geothermal power plants harness the heat from the Earth's core to generate electricity [22, 23]. Wind: Wind turbines are used in areas with strong winds to generate electricity. The largest onshore wind farm in the Philippines is the Burgos Wind Farm in Ilocos Norte, which has a capacity of 150 MW [22, 24]. Biomass and Biofuel: There is a lot of biomass available in the Philippines. This includes crop residues, forest remnants, animal waste, agro-industrial byproducts, urban solid waste, and biomass from water sources. These resources offer a wide range of potential uses, from energy generation to industrial and environmental applications. Biomass power plants use organic materials like agricultural residues and wood to generate electricity. Roughly 16 million tons of residues are generated annually in the Philippines, primarily from rice, coconut, palm oil, sugar, and wood industries. Bagasse, coconut husks, and shells alone can contribute to approximately 12 percent of the nation's total energy supply [22, 25]. Solar: The Philippines has a favorable climate for solar energy generation. Solar panels capture energy from sunlight and convert it into electricity [22]. Non - Renewable Energy: Thermal Power Plants: These plants use fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and natural gas to produce steam, which drives turbines to generate electricity [18]. Coal: In the Philippines, coal-fired power plants have traditionally been a major source of electricity. Natural Gas: Natural gas power plants use natural gas to generate electricity. This method is considered cleaner than coal. Oil: Some power plants use oil as a fuel source, but this is less common due to its cost and environmental considerations. Nuclear: The Philippines was considering the possibility of introducing nuclear power as an energy source, but there’s no existing operational nuclear power plants in the country today [26]. As of 2020, the Philippines had 7,617 megawatts (MW) of renewable energy capacity installed, accounting for approximately 15% of the country's total installed capacity. This marks a notable increase from the 2015 figure of 6,330 MW. Despite this growth, there is significant potential for further expansion. The Philippines has set targets in its Philippine Energy Plan 2020 - 2040, aiming to achieve a 35% share of renewable energy in its power generation mix by 2030 and a 50% share by 2040, indicating a strong commitment to increasing the use of renewable energy sources in its energy mix [27]. Energy Loss Due to Illegal Tapping Illegal electricity tapping is a big problem in many countries, and it's especially common in the Philippines. There are several reasons for this, including poverty, lack of access to legal electricity, and corruption. Illegal tapping can cause energy loss in a number of ways. First, it means that the energy supplier can't bill or charge for the electricity used by the unauthorized tapper, leading to a loss of revenue. Second, these illegal connections are often done poorly and are not safe, leading to electrical losses through leakage and inefficient power transmission. These losses burden the electrical infrastructure and result in additional energy production to compensate for the lost energy, increasing overall energy consumption. Moreover, illegal tapping can overload local transformers and power lines, leading to power outages and further energy waste. In summary, electrical illegal tapping not only costs energy providers financially but also contributes to energy inefficiency and waste in the electrical grid [28]. On a different note, Maynilad Water Services, Incorporated reports that about 1,105 million liters of water are lost every day due to leaks or illegal connections. This is a massive 40% of the water they get from the Angat Dam. Such a huge water loss can seriously affect the water supply and efforts to conserve water in the area. Fixing these problems, like repairing leaks and stopping illegal connections, is really important for managing water sustainably. [29]. 1.3 The Reasons Behind Energy Shortages Factors Contributing to Energy Shortage in the Philippines Growing population and economy: The Philippines is experiencing rapid population and economic growth, with over 110 million people and a burgeoning economy. This growth is driving up the demand for energy, while the available supply remains constrained [22]. High dependence on imported fossil fuels: The Philippines has a significant reliance on imported fossil fuels like oil and coal to meet its energy requirements. This heavy dependence exposes the nation to price fluctuations and supply interruptions in the international market, which can result in energy shortages. Limited domestic energy resources: While the Philippines has abundant renewable energy resources such as geothermal, hydro, and solar power, the exploitation of these resources often faces regulatory and logistical challenges, limiting their contribution to the energy mix. Geopolitical Vulnerabilities: The Philippines' position in Southeast Asia exposes it to geopolitical risks, including territorial disputes in the South China Sea, which can impact energy supply routes and security. Insufficient investments to expand energy sources and infrastructure: The Philippines' power sector faces challenges in terms of the transmission and distribution infrastructure. Insufficient infrastructure and outdated systems result in transmission losses and poor power distribution, leading to energy shortages in certain areas. Vulnerability to natural disasters: The Philippines is prone to natural disasters, including typhoons, earthquakes, and volcanic eruptions. These disasters can damage power generation facilities, disrupt transmission lines, and cause widespread power outages, contributing to energy shortages. Policy and regulatory challenges: The Philippines' energy sector also faces policy and regulatory challenges, including delays in project approvals, complex permitting processes, and uncertainties in renewable energy incentives. These challenges can hinder the development and deployment of energy projects, impacting the overall energy supply. The Influence of Global Energy Trends on the Philippines Energy Prices: The war in Ukraine and other geopolitical tensions have highlighted the importance of energy security. According to data from the Department of Energy (DOE), a significant percentage of the Philippines' petroleum products, such as gasoline, diesel, and kerosene, are imported, with figures at 77.4 percent, 80 percent, and 84 percent, respectively. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has caused global oil prices to rise, leading to an increase in local oil prices. Experts are concerned that this trend may lead to even higher gasoline prices in the Philippines. This situation underscores the country's susceptibility to global energy market fluctuations and geopolitical tensions [30]. Renewable Energy Transition: The global shift towards renewable energy sources, such as wind, solar, and hydropower, influences the Philippines' efforts to diversify its energy mix. The country aims to harness its abundant renewable resources to reduce reliance on imported fossil fuels and mitigate environmental impacts. Energy Efficiency Standards: The adoption of global energy efficiency standards and best practices informs the Philippines' efforts to improve energy efficiency in various sectors, including industry, transportation, and buildings. 1.4 Energy Shortage Projections Future Energy Demand and Supply in the Philippines In the Philippines, there's a big expected increase in how much electricity people will need by the year 2040. The Department of Energy forecasts that the demand for electricity will almost quadruple in 20 years, going from 15,282 megawatts in 2020 to 54,655 megawatts in 2040. This is mostly because the economy is growing, especially in places like Mindanao, Visayas, and Luzon. Electricity sales are also expected to see a similar fourfold increase, reaching 335,691 gigawatthours by 2040, compared to 91,369 gigawatt-hours in 2020. Luzon will continue to use a major portion of these electricity sales, with Visayas and Mindanao sharing the remainder. To meet this growing demand, the country is planning to expand its power generation capacity significantly. While coal has traditionally been a major contributor to the energy mix, its share is expected to decrease. The Philippines aims to rely more on renewable energy sources like solar, hydro, geothermal, wind, and natural gas. However, with domestic natural gas reserves on the decline, the nation will increasingly depend on importing liquefied natural gas (LNG) to fill the gap. New power plants and infrastructure, including LNG import terminals, are being planned to support this transition. This expansion in energy capacity is vital for sustaining economic growth and ensuring a stable supply of electricity in the Philippines. However, it also presents challenges concerning energy self-sufficiency and the environmental consequences associated with increased energy generation [31]. Local Initiatives, Innovations, and Efforts to Address Energy Shortages in the Philippines The Philippines is actively promoting local initiatives and innovations to tackle energy shortages. These include programs to enhance energy efficiency in industries and households, support for renewable energy projects, and the promotion of energy conservation practices. Innovations in systems and community-based renewable energy projects are helping to bring electricity to remote areas. Local Initiatives Interruptible Load Program (ILP): The ILP is a program that encourages large consumers of electricity to voluntarily reduce their power consumption during times of peak demand. In return, these consumers are compensated for their reduced consumption. The ILP has been successful in reducing power outages during peak demand periods [32]. Community-based renewable energy projects: Local communities are increasingly developing and implementing their own renewable energy projects, such as solar and wind farms. These projects can help to reduce the community's reliance on fossil fuels and improve energy access and affordability [33]. Community Projects and Trainings: Diwata-Women in Resource Development, Inc. empowers communities with projects like Solar Lolas in 2015. These Aeta indigenous group remarkably defy stereotypes, mastering solar engineering to bring light and hope to their villages. They create, install, maintain, and repair solar lamps, making significant contribution to solve the country's energy crisis [34]. Other Initiatives include creating on-grid and off-grid renewable energy projects and energy efficiency programs. Innovations Floating solar panels: Floating solar panels are a new technology that is being used to generate electricity from solar energy in areas with limited land space. The government's aim to boost renewable energy adoption in the Philippines includes the implementation of floating solar power projects in Laguna Lake [35]. Microgrids and off-grid electrification: Microgrids are small-scale power grids that can operate independently of the main grid. Microgrids are often used in remote areas or areas that are vulnerable to power outages. Off-grid electrification refers to the provision of electricity to households and communities that are not connected to the main grid. This is typically done using renewable energy sources such as solar and wind power [36]. Battery storage: Battery storage technologies are becoming increasingly affordable and efficient. Battery storage can help to integrate renewable energy sources into the grid and provide backup power during outages [37]. EFFORTS • The Philippine government has set a target of achieving 50% renewable energy in the country's energy mix by 2040. This target is under the Philippine Energy Plan 2020-2040 of the Department of Energy and is being supported by a number of policies and programs, such as the Renewable Energy Act of 2008 and the Feed-in Tariff Program [38]. Figure 7 presents the Future Energy Scenario outlined in the Philippine Energy Plan 2020-2040 by the Department of Energy (source: Department of Energy) Figure 8 presents the Major Renewable Energy Policies and Programs in the Philippines (source: Department of Energy) • • The Philippine Department of Energy's Green Energy Auction Program (GEAP): GEAP is a competitive bidding program by the Philippine Department of Energy (DOE). It aims to secure additional renewable energy capacity at competitive prices. GEAP has successfully attracted significant investments in renewable energy projects in the Philippines [39]. The Philippine Solar Power Alliance (PSPA): PSPA is a non-profit organization representing the solar industry in the Philippines. PSPA is actively working to advance the solar energy market in the country, including initiatives like training solar technicians and installers [40]. In addition to these efforts, various other sectors and organizations in the Philippines are also playing important roles in promoting renewable energies for a sustainable future. These include the following [38]: • The Philippine private sector • The Philippine Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) • Non-government organizations • The Philippine Rural Electric Cooperatives Association (PHILRECA) • The Philippine Center for Renewable Energy (PCRE) • The Philippine Green Building Council (PGBC) 1.5 Effects of Energy Shortage Economic Impact of Energy Shortage in the Philippines A study by the Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS) found that a five-hour power outage in the country loses about 500 megawatt of electricity results in about P556 million in economic losses [41]. Another study by PIDS reveals that power outages resulting from various causes cost the country 107.5 million consumer-hours in 2021, signifying a 10% increase from 2015. These outages, often due to factors like storms and technical issues, affect households, businesses, and critical infrastructure, resulting in increased expenses and economic losses [42]. Energy shortages in the Philippines can lead to a number of economic problems, including: • Reduced productivity: Businesses rely on energy to operate their machinery and equipment. An energy shortage can lead to power outages and other disruptions that can reduce productivity and output. • Higher costs: Businesses may need to invest in expensive backup generators or other measures to mitigate the impact of an energy shortage. This can increase their costs and reduce their profits. • Job losses: Energy-intensive industries, such as manufacturing and mining, may be forced to cut jobs or even close down if they are unable to operate due to an energy shortage. • Reduced investment: Foreign investors may be hesitant to invest in the Philippines if they are concerned about the reliability of the energy supply. • Higher inflation: Energy shortages can lead to higher energy prices, which can contribute to inflation. In 2022, the Philippines had the highest electricity prices in Southeast Asia [43]. Environmental Consequences of Energy Shortage in the Philippines Energy shortages in the Philippines can lead to various environmental problems, including: Pollution: Energy shortages often force a greater reliance on fossil fuels, leading to higher carbon emissions and exacerbating air pollution. Increased Diesel Generator Use: When there's not enough energy, people often turn to diesel generators as backups. These generators emit harmful pollutants, which may cause air and noise pollution, greenhouse gas emissions, and generating maintenance waste. Deforestation: Energy shortages may drive deforestation, as trees are cut down for fuel. This harms biodiversity and worsens climate change. Risk of Environmental Disasters: Energy shortages can also increase the risk of environmental disasters. Inadequate electricity for water pumps can cause water shortages, droughts, and increase vulnerability to wildfires and other disasters [44]. Social and Health Impacts of Energy Shortage on Filipinos Energy shortages in the Philippines can have far-reaching social impacts, including: Poverty and Inequality: Energy shortages often result in higher energy prices, which can hit lowincome households and businesses the hardest. This can contribute to a rise in poverty and worsen inequality [45]. Disruption of Daily Life: Energy shortages disrupt daily routines and can lead to inconvenience, discomfort, and safety hazards for Filipinos. Impact on Essential Services: Lack of access to reliable energy can hinder the provision of essential services like healthcare, education, and emergency response systems, affecting the overall well-being of the population. Vulnerable People at Risk: Vulnerable groups, such as the elderly, children, and individuals with medical conditions, are particularly at risk during power outages. They may rely on medical devices or require climate control for their health and safety. Addressing energy shortages is not only critical for economic growth but also for ensuring the well-being and equality of all citizens in the Philippines. Areas in the Philippines Prone to Power Outages It's not by accident that the MIMAROPA Region turned up top in searches for solar panels. This region has long struggled with power outages, earning one of its provinces, Mindoro, the title of the 'brownout capital' of the Philippines. Frequent power outages are a result of insufficient power supply in the area, with instances of prolonged outages lasting nearly two days [46]. Palawan, known for its natural beauty, faces persistent power outages due to a lack of reliable sources and distribution problems. These interruptions disrupt daily life, inconvenience tourists, and impact local businesses. Efforts are underway to improve the power infrastructure, ensuring a more stable energy supply for residents and sustaining the province's appeal for tourists and investors [47]. On March 3, 2023, Oriental Mindoro Governor Humerlito Dolor has called for the entire province to be declared under a state of calamity following the oil spill from the sunken motor tanker Princess Empress. Parts of the province were initially declared in a state of calamity. According to the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC), the oil spill has impacted 36,658 families or 172,928 individuals across Calabarzon, Mimaropa, and Western Visayas, with around 203 residents falling ill due to the spill [48]. Technological Innovation and Energy Transition Even though Energy shortage impose a lot of concerns and challenges, it can also lead to the development of new technologies and the switch to more sustainable energy sources. When there isn't enough energy, people often work on research and development to find better and more efficient ways to get energy. This can lead to improvements in green energy methods, systems for storing energy, and ways to use less energy and a shift to a more sustainable energy sources [49, 50]. • Technological Innovations: Energy shortages act as catalysts for technological breakthroughs, driving the exploration of alternative energy sources and more efficient energy utilization. Innovations in renewable energy technologies, energy storage systems, and smart grids can mitigate the impact of energy shortages and offer sustainable solutions. Moreover, advancements in energy efficiency can result in reduced energy consumption, cost savings, and environmental benefits. • Transition to Sustainable Energies: The energy shortage can accelerate the shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources like solar, wind, and hydroelectric power. Government policies and incentives play a pivotal role in encouraging the adoption of clean energy technologies and diversifying the energy landscape. This transition also creates new employment opportunities in the renewable energy sector and related industries.