Managerial Economics Notes PDF, 2020-2022

Digital Notes Managerial Economics (R20MBA02) Academic Year 2020-22 Compiled By: A.LAKSHMI, MBA, Assistant Professor Dr.G.ARCHANA,Associate Professor G.VENKATA REDDY,MBA(PhD),Assis...

Digital Notes Managerial Economics (R20MBA02) Academic Year 2020-22 Compiled By: A.LAKSHMI, MBA, Assistant Professor Dr.G.ARCHANA,Associate Professor G.VENKATA REDDY,MBA(PhD),Assistant Professor MALLA REDDY COLLEGE OF ENGINEERING & TECHNOLOGY (Autonomous Institution-UGC, Govt. of India) Maisammaguda, Dhulapally, Kompally, Medchal, Hyderabad - 500100  MALLA REDDY COLLEGE OF ENGINEERING & TECHNOLOGY (Autonomous Institution-UGC, Govt. of India) Course Code : R20MBA02 Course Title : MANAGERIAL ECONOMICS Course (Year/Semester) : MBA I Year I Semester Course Type : Core Course Credits 3 Course Aim:  To enable students acquire knowledge to understand the economic environment of an organization. Learning Outcome:  Students should be able to understand the basic economic principles, forecast demand and supply and should be able to estimate cost and understand market structure and pricing practices. Unit-I: Introduction to Managerial Economics Introduction: Definition - Nature and Scope - ME as an Inter-disciplinary - Basic Economic Principles - The Concept of Opportunity Cost - Incremental Concept - Scarcity - Marginalism - Equi-marginalism - Time perspective - Discounting Principle. Unit-II: Theory of Demand Demand Analysis: Law of Demand - Movement in Demand Curve - Shift in the Demand Curve Elasticity of Demand: Types & Significance of Elasticity of Demand - Measurement Techniques of Price Elasticity Forecasting: Demand Forecasting and its Techniques - Consumers Equilibrium - Cardinal Utility Approach - Indifference Curve Approach - Consumer Surplus. Unit-III: Production and Cost Analysis Production Analysis: Production Function - Production Functions with One/Two Variables - Cobb-Douglas Production Function - Marginal Rate of Technical Substitution - Isoquants and Isocosts - Returns to Scale and Returns to Factors - Economies of Scale. Cost Analysis: Cost concepts - Determinants of Cost - Cost-Output Relationship in the Short Run and Long Run - Short Run vs. Long Run Costs - Average Cost Curves - Overall Cost Leadership.  Unit-IV: Market Structure and Pricing Practices Market Structures: Features and Types of different Competitive Situations - Price-Output Determination in Perfect Competition - Monopoly - Monopolistic Competition and Oligopoly - both the long run and short run; Pricing: Pricing philosophy. Unit-V: Macro Economics & Business Macro Economics: Nature, Concept and measurement of National Income. Classical and Keynesian approaches to Income, Employment and Investment. Inflation: Types, causes and measurement of inflation. Philips curve, stagflation. Trade Cycles: Causes - Policies to counter trade cycles. REFERENCES:  D. M. Mithani, Managerial Economics, HPH.  Yogesh Maheshwari, Managerial Economics, PHI.  Sumitrapal, Managerial Economics Cases & Concepts, Macmillan.  H. Kaushal, Managerial Economics, Macmillan.  Managerial Economics ‘Craig H. Petersen, Pearson.  D.N. Dwivedi, Managerial Economics, Vikas. UNIT-I INTRODUCTION TO MANAGERIAL ECONOMICS Imagine for a while that you have finished your studies and have joined as an engineer in a manufacturing organization. What do you do there? You plan to produce maximum quantity of goods of a given quality at a reasonable cost. On the other hand, if you are a sale manager, you have to sell a maximum amount of goods with minimum advertisement costs. In other words, you want to minimize your costs and maximize your returns and by doing so, you are practicing the principles of managerial economics. Managers, in their day-to-day activities, are always confronted with several issues such as how much quantity is to be supplied; at what price; should the product be made internally; or whether it should be bought from outside; how much quantity is to be produced to make a given amount of profit and so on. Managerial economics provides us a basic insight into seeking solutions for managerial problems. Economics, as the name itself implies, is an offshoot of two distinct disciplines: Economics and Management. In other words, it is necessary to understand what these disciplines are, at least in brief, to understand the nature and scope of managerial economics. INTRODUCTION TO ECONOMICS Economics is a study of human activity both at individual and national level. The economists of early age treated economics merely as the science of wealth. The reason for this is clear. Every one of us in involved in efforts aimed at earning money and spending this money to satisfy our wants such as food, Clothing, shelter, and others. Such activities of earning and spending money are called Economic activities”. It was only during the eighteenth century that Adam Smith, the Father of Economics, defined economics as the study of nature and uses of national wealth’. Dr. Alfred Marshall, one of the greatest economists of the nineteenth century, writes “Economics is a study of man’s actions in the ordinary business of life: it enquires how he gets his income and how he uses it”. Thus, it is one side, a study of wealth; and on the other, and more important side; it is the study of man. As Marshall observed, the chief aim of economics is to promote ‘human welfare’, but not wealth. The definition given by Prof. Lionel Robbins defined Economics as “the science, which studies human behaviour as a relationship between ends and scarce means which have alternative uses”. With this, the focus of economics shifted from ‘wealth’ to human behaviour. CONCEPTS OF MICRO AND MACRO ECONOMICS: ‘Economics’ is defined as the study of how the humans work together to convert limited resources into goods and services to satisfy their wants (unlimited) and how they distribute the same among themselves. Economics has been divided into two broad parts i.e. Micro Economics and Macro Economics. Here, in the given article we’ve broken down the concept and all the important differences between micro economics and macro economics, in tabular form, have a look. MICROECONOMICS The term ‘micro’ means small. The study of an individual consumer or a firm is called microeconomics (also called the Theory of Firm). Micro means ‘one millionth’. Microeconomics deals with behavior and problems of single individual and of micro organization. Managerial economics has its roots in microeconomics and it deals with the micro or individual enterprises. It is concerned with the application of the concepts such as price theory, Law of Demand and theories of market structure and so on. MACROECONOMICS The term ‘macro’ means large. The study of ‘aggregate or total level of economic activity in a country is called macroeconomics. It studies the flow of economics resources or factors of production (such as land, labour, capital, organisation and technology) from the resource owner to the business firms and then from the business firms to the households. It deals with total aggregates, for instance, total national income total employment, output and total investment. It studies the interrelations among various aggregates and examines their nature and behaviour, their determination and causes of fluctuations in the. It deals with the price level in general, instead of studying the prices of individual commodities. It is concerned with the level of employment in the economy. It discusses aggregate consumption, aggregate investment, price level, and payment, theories of employment, and so on. Though macroeconomics provides the necessary framework in term of government policies etc., for the firm to act upon dealing with analysis of business conditions, it has less direct relevance in the study of theory of firm. Micro and Macro Economics are not contradictory in nature, in fact, they are complementary. As every coin has two aspects- micro and macroeconomics are also the two aspects of the same coin, where one’s demerit is others merit and in this way they cover the whole economy. The only important thing which makes them different is the area of application. MANAGEMENT Management is the science and art of getting things done through people in formally organized groups. It is necessary that every organisation be well managed to enable it to achieve its desired goals. Management includes a number of functions: Planning, organizing, staffing, directing, and controlling. The manager while directing the efforts of his staff communicates to them the goals, objectives, policies, and procedures; coordinates their efforts; motivates them to sustain their enthusiasm; and leads them to achieve the corporate goals. MANAGERIAL ECONOMICS INTRODUCTION Managerial Economics is subject gained popularity in USA after the publication of the book Managerial Economics” by Joel Dean in 1951. Managerial Economics refers to the firm’s decision making process. It could be also interpreted as “Economics of Management” or “Economics of Management”. Managerial Economics is also called as “Industrial Economics” or “Business Economics”. As Joel Dean observes managerial economics shows how economic analysis can be used in formulating polices. MEANING & DEFINITION: In the words of E. F. Brigham and J. L. Pappas Managerial Economics is “the applications of economics theory and methodology to business administration practice”. M. H. Spencer and Louis Siegel man explain the “Managerial Economics is the integration of economic theory with business practice for the purpose of facilitating decision making and forward planning by management”. Managerial Economics, therefore, focuses on those tools and techniques, which are useful in decision-making. NATURE OF MANAGERIAL ECONOMICS Managerial economics is, perhaps, the youngest of all the social sciences. Since it originates from Economics, it has the basis features of economics, such as assuming that other things remaining the same. The other features of managerial economics are explained as below: (a) Close to microeconomics: Managerial economics is concerned with finding the solutions for different managerial problems of a particular firm. Thus, it is more close to microeconomics. (b) Operates against the backdrop of macroeconomics: The macroeconomics conditions of the economy are also seen as limiting factors for the firm to operate. In other words, the managerial economist has to be aware of the limits set by the macroeconomics conditions such as government industrial policy, inflation and so on. (c) Normative statements: A normative statement usually includes or implies the words ‘ought’ or ‘should’. They reflect people’s moral attitudes and are expressions of what a team of people ought to do. For instance, it deals with statements such as ‘Government of India should open up the economy. Such statement are based on value judgments and express views of what is ‘good’ or ‘bad’, ‘right’ or ‘ wrong’. One problem with normative statements is that they cannot to verify by looking at the facts, because they mostly deal with the future. Disagreements about such statements are usually settled by voting on them. (d) Prescriptive actions: Prescriptive action is goal oriented. Given a problem and the objectives of the firm, it suggests the course of action from the available alternatives for optimal solution. If does not merely mention the concept, it also explains whether the concept can be applied in a given context on not. For instance, the fact that variable costs are marginal costs can be used to judge the feasibility of an export order. (e) Applied in nature: ‘Models’ are built to reflect the real life complex business situations and these models are of immense help to managers for decision-making. The different areas where models are extensively used include inventory control, optimization, project management etc. In managerial economics, we also employ case study methods to conceptualize the problem, identify that alternative and determine the best course of action. (f) Offers scope to evaluate each alternative: Managerial economics provides an opportunity to evaluate each alternative in terms of its costs and revenue. The managerial economist can decide which is the better alternative to maximize the profits for the firm. (g) Interdisciplinary: The contents, tools and techniques of managerial economics are drawn from different subjects such as economics, management, mathematics, statistics, accountancy, psychology, organizational behavior, sociology and etc. (h) Assumptions and limitations: Every concept and theory of managerial economics is based on certain assumption and as such their validity is not universal. Where there is change in assumptions, the theory may not hold good at all. SCOPE OF MANAGERIAL ECONOMICS: The main focus in managerial economics is to find an optimal solution to a given managerial problems. The problem may relate to production, reduction or control of costs, determination of price of a given product or service, make or buy decisions, inventory decisions, capital management or profit planning and investment decisions or human resource management. While all these are the problems, the managerial economist make use of the concepts, tools and techniques of economics and other related disciplines to find an optimal solution to a given managerial problem. This concept is explained in the below figure. The following aspects may be said to generally fall under Managerial Economics. Demand Analysis: A business firm is an economic organism which transforms productive resources into goods that are to be sold in a market. The analysis of a demand for a given product and service is the first task of managerial economist. Before production schedules can be prepared and resources employed, a forecast of future sales is essential. This forecast can also serve as a guide to management for maintaining or strengthening the market position and enlarging profits. Demand Analysis helps in identify the various factors influencing the demand for a firm’s product and thus provides guidelines to manipulating demand. Demand analysis and forecasting, therefore, is essential for business planning and occupies a strategic place in Managerial Economics. Cost Analysis: A study of economic costs, combined with the data drawn from the firm’s accounting records, can yield significant cost estimates that are useful for managerial decisions. The factors causing variations in costs must be recognized and allowed for if management is to arrive at cost estimates which are significant for planning purpose. The chief topics covered under cost analysis are cost concept and classifications, cost output relationship, economies and diseconomies of scale and cost control and cost reduction. Pricing Decisions: Pricing is very important area of managerial economics. In fact, price is the source of the revenue of a firm and as such the success of a business firm largely depends on the correctness of the price determination in various market forms, pricing, methods, differential pricing, product line pricing and price forecasting. Production And Supply Analysis: Production Analysis is narrower in scope that cost analysis production Analysis frequently proceed in physical term while cost analysis proceeds in monetary terms. Production analysis mainly deals with different production functions and their managerial use. Supply analysis deals with various aspects of supply of a commodity. Certain important aspects of supply analysis are : supply schedule, curves and function, law of supply and its limitations. Elasticity of supply and factors influencing supply. Profit analysis: Profit making is the major goal of firms. There are several constraints here an account of competition from other products, changing input prices and changing business environment hence in spite of careful planning, there is always certain risk involved. Managerial economics deals with techniques of averting of minimizing risks. Profit theory guides in the measurement and management of profit, in calculating the pure return on capital, besides future profit planning. Capital Management: Among the various problems of a business, the most complex and difficult for the business manager are likely to be those relating to the firms capital investments. Relatively large sums are involved and the problems are so complex that their disposal not only requires considerate time and labor but is a matter for top level decisions. Briefly capital management implies planning and control of capital expenditure. The main topics dealt with are cost of capital, rate of return and selection or projects. Strategic planning: Strategic planning provides management with a framework on which long-term decisions can be made which has an impact on the behavior of the firm. The firm sets certain long-term goals and objectives and selects the strategies to achieve the same. Strategic planning is now a new addition to the scope of managerial economics with the emergence of multinational corporations. The perspective of strategic planning is global. It is in contrast to project planning which focuses on a specific project or activity. In fact the integration of managerial economics and strategic planning has given rise to be new area of study called corporate economics. Conclusion: The various aspects outlined above represent the major uncertainties which a business firm has to reckon with, viz, demand uncertainty, cost uncertainty, price uncertainty, profit uncertainty and capital uncertainty. We can therefore, conclude that the subject matter or managerial economics consists of applying economic principles and concepts towards adjusting with various uncertainties faced by a business firm. Managerial Economics Linkages with Other Disciplines: Managerial Economics is closely linked with money other disciplines such as economics, accountancy, mathematics, statistics, operation research, psychology and organizational behavior. Economics: Managerial Economics is the offshoot of economics and hence the concepts of managerial economics are basically economic concepts. If economics deals with theoretical concepts, managerial economics is the application of these in real life. In the process of addressing various managerial problems, several empirically estimated functions such as demand function, cost function, revenue function and so on are extensively used. Operation Research: Decision-making is the main focus in Operation Research and Managerial Economics. If Managerial Economics focuses on “problems of decision making” Operation Research Focus on solving the Managerial problems. The Operation Research Models such as linear programming, transportation, optimization techniques and so on, are extensively used in solving the managerial problems. Mathematics: Managerial Economist is concerned with estimating and predicting. The relevant economic factors for decision-making and foreword planning. In this process, he extensively makes use of the tools and techniques of mathematics such as algebra, calculus, vectors; input-output tables such other. Statistics: Statistics deals with different techniques useful to analyze the cause and effect relationships in a given variable or phenomenon. It also empowers the managers to deal with the situations of risk and uncertainty through its techniques such as probability. The business environment for the managerial economist is full of risk and uncertainty and extensively makes use of the statistical techniques such as averages, measures of dispersion, correlation, regression time series, and probability and so on. These techniques enhance the relevance of the conceptual base in managerial economics. Accountancy: The accountant provides accounting information relating to costs, revenues, receivables, payables, profit and loss etc. and this forms the basis for the managerial economist to act upon. This forms authentic source of data about the performance of the firm. The main objective of accounting function is to record, classify and interpret the given accounting data. The managerial economist profusely depends upon accounting data for decision-making and foreword planning. Psychology: Consumer psychology is the basis on which managerial economist acts upon. How the customers react to a given change in price or supply and its consequential effect on demand / profits is the main focus of study in managerial economics. We assume that the behavior of the consumer is always rational which in reality is not so. Psychology contributes towards understanding the behavioral implications, attitude and motivations of each of the micro economics variables such as consumer, supplier investor worker or an employee. Organizational Behavior: Organization Behavior enables the managerial economist to study and develop behavioral models of the firm integrating the manager is behavior with that of the owner. This further analysis the economic rationality of the firm in a focused way. BASIC ECONOMIC TOOLS IN ME: Introduction: Managerial Economics is both conceptual and metrical. Before the substantive decision problems which fall within the purview of managerial economics are discussed, it is useful to identify and understand some of the basic concepts underlying the subject. Economic theory provides a number of concepts and analytical tools which can be of considerable and immense help to a manager in taking many decisions and business planning. This is not to say that economics has all the solutions. In fact, actual problem solving in business has found that there exists a wide disparity between economic theory of the firm and actual observed practice. Therefore, it would be useful to examine the basic tools of managerial economics and the nature and extent of gap between the economic theory of the firm and the managerial theory of the firm. The contribution of economics to managerial economics lies in certain principles which are basic to managerial economics. There are six basic principles of managerial economics. They are: 1. Incremental principle. 2. Time perspective principle. 3. Opportunity cost principle. 4. Equi-marginalism principle. 5. Discounting principle 6. Marginalism principle. 7. Concept of scarcity 8. Production possibility curve 1. Incremental principle The incremental concept is probably the most important concept in economics and is certainly the most frequently used in Managerial Economics. Incremental concept is closely related to the marginal cost and marginal revenues of economic theory. The two major concepts in this analysis are incremental cost and incremental revenue. Incremental cost denotes change in total cost, whereas incremental revenue means change in total revenue resulting from a decision of the firm. The incremental principle may be stated as follows: A decision is clearly a profitable one if (i) It increases revenue more than costs. (ii) It decreases some cost to a greater extent than it increases others. (iii) It increases some revenues more than it decreases others. (iv) It reduces costs more than revenues. 2. Concept of Time Perspective: The time perspective concept states that the decision maker must give due consideration both to the short run and long run effects of his decisions. He must give due emphasis to the various time periods. It was Marshall who introduced time element in economic theory. The economic concepts of the long run and the short run have become part of everyday language. Managerial economists are also concerned with the short run and long run effects of decisions on revenues as well as costs. The main problem in decision making is to establish the right balance between long run and short run. In the short period, the firm can change its output without changing its size. In the long period, the firm can change its output by changing its size. In the short period, the output of the industry is fixed because the firms cannot change their size of operation and they can vary only variable factors. In the long period, the output of the industry is likely to be more because the firms have enough time to increase their sizes and also use both variable and fixed factors. 3. The Opportunity Cost Concept: Opportunity cost principle is related and applied to scarce resource. When there are alternative uses of scarce resource, one should know which best alternative is and which is not. We should know what gain by best alternative is and what loss by left alternative is. The concept of opportunity cost plays an important role in managerial decisions. This concept helps in selecting the best possible alternative from among various alternatives available to solve a particular problem. This concept helps in the best allocation of available resources. The opportunity cost of any action is simply the next best alternative to that action - or put more simply, "What you would have done if you didn't make the choice that you did". The income or benefit foregone as the result of carrying out a particular decision, when resources are limited or when mutually exclusive projects are involved. Opportunity cost is not what you choose when you make a choice —it is what you did not choose in making a choice. Opportunity cost is the value of the forgone alternative — what you gave up when you got something. Example 1: If a person is having cash in hand Rs. 100000/-, he may think of two alternatives to increase cash. Option 1: Investing in bank. We will get returns amount 10000/- Option2: Investing in business. We get returns amount 17000/- Generally we chose the option 2 because we will get more returns than the option 1. Here the option 1 is the opportunity cost, that what we have not chosen. The opportunity cost of a decision is based on what must be given up (the next best alternative) as a result of the decision. Any decision that involves a choice between two or more options has an opportunity cost. In managerial decision making, the concept of opportunity cost occupies an important place. The economic significance of opportunity cost is as follows: 1. It helps in determining relative prices of different goods. 2. It helps in determining normal remuneration to a factor of production. 3. It helps in proper allocation of factor resources. 4. Equi-Marginal Concept: One of the widest known principles of economics is the equi-marginal principle. The principle states that an input should be allocated so that value added by the last unit is the same in all cases. This generalisation is popularly called the equi-marginal. Let us assume a case in which the firm has 100 unit of labour at its disposal. And the firm is involved in five activities viz., А, В, C, D and E. The firm can increase any one of these activities by employing more labour but only at the cost i.e., sacrifice of other activities. An optimum allocation cannot be achieved if the value of the marginal product is greater in one activity than in another. It would be, therefore, profitable to shift labour from low marginal value activity to high marginal value activity, thus increasing the total value of all products taken together. If, for example, the value of the marginal product of labour in activity A is Rs. 50 while that in activity В is Rs. 70 then it is possible and profitable to shift labour from activity A to activity B. The optimum is reached when the values of the marginal product is equal to all activities. This can be expressed symbolically as follows: VMPLA = VMPLB = VMPLC = VMPLD = VMPLE Where VMP = Value of Marginal Product. L = Labour ABCDE = Activities i.e., the value of the marginal product of labour employed in A is equal to the value of the marginal product of the labour employed in В and so on. The equimarginal principle is an extremely practical notion. It is behind any rational budgetary procedure. The principle is also applied in investment decisions and allocation of research expenditures. For a consumer, this concept implies that money may be allocated over various commodities such that marginal utility derived from the use of each commodity is the same. Similarly, for a producer this concept implies that resources be allocated in such a manner that the marginal product of the inputs is the same in all uses. 5. Discounting Concept: This concept is an extension of the concept of time perspective. Since future is unknown and incalculable, there is lot of risk and uncertainty in future. Everyone knows that a rupee today is worth more than a rupee will be two years from now. This appears similar to the saying that “a bird in hand is more worth than two in the bush.” This judgment is made not on account of the uncertainty surrounding the future or the risk of inflation. It is simply that in the intervening period a sum of money can earn a return which is ruled out if the same sum is available only at the end of the period. In technical parlance, it is said that the present value of one rupee available at the end of two years is the present value of one rupee available today. The mathematical technique for adjusting for the time value of money and computing present value is called ‘discounting’. This principle talks about comparision of the money value between present and future time. Eg: suppose 1) 100/- is gifted to a particular person today. 2) 100/- will be given as gift to same particular person after one year. Normally a person chooses first offer only. Why because “today rupee is having more worth than tomorrows rupee” Example  In the business, everybody prefers to do cash sale only rather than the credit sale and even they are ready to give cash discount for cash sale. The reason is we will get a rupee today and today’s rupee is more valuable than the tomorrow’s rupee. But In credit sale we will get rupee tomorrow or in the future time and nobody give the discount for credit sale. 6.MARGINALISAM PRINCIPLE Marginalism generally includes the study of marginal theories and relationships within economics. The key focus of marginalism is how much extra use is gained from incremental increases in the quantity of goods created, sold, etc. and how these measures relate to consumer choice and demand. Marginalism covers such topics as marginal utility, marginal gain, marginal rates of substitution, and opportunity costs, within the context of consumers making rational choices in a market with known prices. These areas can all be thought of as popular schools of thought surrounding financial and economic incentives. Marginal cost is the cost which incurred to produce the next or one more unit. Marginal Revenue is the benefit which gets by producing one more or next unit. Cost will be less and benefit will be more. 7. CONCEPT OF SCARCITY Human wants are unlimited, but human capacity to satisfy such wants is limited. Scarcity refers to the basic economic problem, the gap between limited – that is, scarce – resources and theoretically limitless wants. This situation requires people to make decisions about how to allocate resources efficiently, in order to satisfy basic needs and as many additional wants at possible. Any resource that has a non-zero cost to consume is scarce to some degree, but what matters in practice is relative scarcity. Scarcity is also referred to as "paucity." 8. PRODUCTION POSSIBILITY CURVE The production possibility frontier (PPF) is a curve depicting all maximum output possibilities for two goods, given a set of inputs consisting of resources and other factors. The PPF assumes that all inputs are used efficiently. Factors such as labor, capital and technology, among others, will affect the resources available, which will dictate where the production possibility frontier lies. The PPF is also known as the production possibility curve or the transformation curve. MANEGERIAL ECONOMICS Unit-II: Theory of Demand Demand analysis, law of demand, movement in demand curve, shift in the demand curve, Elasticity of demand, Types & Significance of Elasticity of demand, measurement techniques of Price Elasticity, demand forecasting and its techniques, consumers Equilibrium, cardinal utility approach, indifference curve approach, consumer surplus. DEMAND ANALYSIS. Introduction & Meaning: Demand in common parlance means the desire for an object. But in economics demand is something more than this. According to Stonier and Hague, “Demand in economics means demand backed up by enough money to pay for the goods demanded”. This means that the demand becomes effective only it if is backed by the purchasing power in addition to this there must be willingness to buy a commodity. Thus demand in economics means the desire backed by the willingness to buy a commodity and the purchasing power to pay. In the words of “Benham” “The demand for anything at a given price is the amount of it which will be bought per unit of time at that Price”. (Thus demand is always at a price for a definite quantity at a specified time.) Thus demand has three essentials – price, quantity demanded and time. Without these, demand has to significance in economics. It deals with four aspects: 1. Consumption 2. Production  3. Exchange 4. Distribution Definition of demand: According to Benham: “The demand for anything, at a given price, is the amount of it, which will be bought per unit of time, at that price.” According to Bobber, “By demand we mean the various quantities of a given commodity or service which consumers would buy in one market in a given period of time at various prices.” Demand = Desire + Ability to Pay + Willingness to Pay Above conditions must be there to create demand. Nature and types of demand The different types of demand are; 1. Consumer Vs producer goods Consumer goods refers to such products and services which are capable of satisfying human need. Goods can be grouped under consumer goods and producer goods. Consumer goods are those which are available for ultimate consumption. These give direct and immediate satisfaction. For example bread, apple rice etc. whereas producer goods are those which are used for further production. For example seeds and machinery. 2. Autonomous Vs derived demand Refers to the classification of demand on the basis of dependency on other products. The demand for a product that is not associated with the demand of other products is known as autonomous or direct demand. The autonomous demand arises due to the natural desire of an individual to consume the product. On the other hand, derived demand refers to the demand for a product that arises due to the demand for other products. For example demand for college comes under autonomous demand and the demand for canteen and stationary shop around the college comes under derived demand. 3. Durable Vs perishable goods Refers to the classification of demand on the basis of usage of goods. The goods are divided into two categories, perishable goods and durable goods. Perishable or non- durable goods refer to the goods that have a single use. For example, cement, coal, fuel, and eatables. On the other hand, durable goods refer to goods that can be used repeatedly. 4. Firm Vs industry demand  Refers to the classification of demand on the basis of market. The demand for the products of a firm at given price over a point of time is known as firm demand. For example, the demand for Toyota cars is organization demand. The sum total of demand for products of all organizations in a particular industry is known as industry demand. 5. Short run Vs long run demand Refers to the classification of demand on the basis of time period. Short-term demand refers to the demand for products that are used for a shorter duration of time or for current period. This demand depends on the current tastes and preferences of consumers. 6. New product Vs replacement demand New demand refers to the demand for the new products and it is addition to the new stock. In replacement demand the item is purchased to maintain the asset in gtood condition. For example the demand for car is new demand the demand for spare parts comes under replacement demand. 7. Total market Vs segment market demand Let us take the consumption of sugar in a given region. The total demand for sugar in the region is the total market demand. The demand for the sweet making industry from this region is the segment market demand. DETERMINANTS OF MARKET DEMAND Definition: The Market Demand is defined as the sum of individual demands for a product per unit of time, at a given price. Simply, the total quantity of a commodity demanded by all the buyers/individuals at a given price, other things remaining same is called the market demand. 1. Price of a product The price of a product is one of the most important determinants of its demand in the long run and the only determinant in the short run. The quantity of the product demanded by the consumer inversely depends upon the price of the product. If the price rise demand falls and vice versa. The relation between price and demand is called Law of demand. It is not only the existing price but also the expected changes in price which affect demand. 2. Price of related goods. The demand for a commodity is also affected by the changes in the price of its related goods. Related goods may be substitutes or complementary goods. (a) Substitutes Two commodities are substitutes for one another if change in the price of one affects the demand for the other in the same direction. For example X and Y are substitutes for one another. If price for X increases, demand for Y increases and vice versa. Tea and coffee, hamburgers and hot dogs, Coke and Pepsi are some examples of substitutes in the case of consumer goods. (b) Complements Complementary goods are those goods which complete the demand for each other, such as car and petrol or pen and ink. There is an inverse or negative relationship between the demand for first good and price of the second which happens to be complementary to the first. For example an increase in the price of petrol causes a decrease in the demand of car and other petrol run vehicles, other things remaining same 3. Income of the consumer: Income is the basic determinant of quantity of product demanded since it determines the purchasing power of the consumer. Income as determinant of demand is equally important in both short run and long run. The relationship between the demand for a commodity say, X and the household income Y, assuming all other factors to remain constant, is expressed by a demand function such as : Experience shows that numerically there is a positive relationship between income of the consumer and his demand for a good. In other words, an increase in income would cause an increase in demand and economists therefore call such goods as normal goods. Normal goods are goods for which an increase in consumer’s income results in an increase in demand. There are some goods, however which are called inferior goods. Inferior good is a good for which an increase in consumer’s income results in a decrease in its demand. 4. Consumer taste and preference The demand for any goods and service depends on individual’s taste and preferences. They include fashion, habit, custom etc. Tastes and preferences of the consumers are influenced by advertisement, changes in fashion, climate, and new invention. Other things being equal, demand for those goods increases for which consumers develop taste and preferences. Contrary to it, an unfavorable change in consumer preferences and tastes for a product will cause demand to decrease. 5. Advertisement effect Advertisement costs are incurred with the objective of promoting sale of the product. Advertisements help in increasing the demand in the following ways: By informing potential consumers about the product and its availability  By showing its superiority over rival product By influencing consumer’s choice against the rival products By setting new fashions and changing tastes. There are instances when advertisements have changed lifestyle of people. Cadbury India has revolutionized the market for its leading product Dairy Milk through high profile advertising featuring Amitabh Bachchan with a slogan “Kuch mitha ho jai”. 6. Consumer’s expectations of future income and price: Consumers do not make purchases only on the basis of current price structure. Especially in case of durables, when demand can be postponed, consumers decide their purchase on the basis of future price and income. If they expect their income to increase or price to fall in future, they will postpone their demand on the other hand if they expect price to increase in future they will hasten the purchase. For example, purchase of cars and other durables increases before budget is announced if consumers fear that prices may rise after budget. Or, when people expect pay revisions, they wait for major purchases till pay is revised. 7. Size of population Size of population, age distribution, rural urban distribution and gender distribution affect aggregate demand. If population of a country is constantly increasing, more food items and other goods and services will be needed to satisfy the needs of the people. Age distribution of the population determines what kind of commodities will be demanded. If population mostly consists of aged people, there will be demand of more medicines and health care services. On the other hand if major section of population is youth, there will be more demand for education , employment opportunities and designer apparels. 8. Other factors: Distribution of national income, demonstration effect, credit facility, technical policy, climatic conditions all these are the factors which affect to the demand of the product. DEMAND FUNCTION A demand function expresses the relationship between the quantity demanded of a commodity and it's determinants. Taking the determinants of a commodity and it's determinants. Taking the determinants of demand discussed above, we can represent a demand function as follows : Qx = f (Px,Y,Ps,Pz,T,N,E,A,I,S) Where, Qdx = quantity demand of Ps = price of a substitute commodity commodity x Pz = price of a complementary commodity F = functional relationship T = taste and preferences Px = price of commodity x N = size and distribution of population Y = consumers income E = future expectations A = expenditure on advertising and promotion I = interest rate S = social-cultural factors Some point to be noted about a demand function : (a) It represents a relationship between the quantity demanded anddetermination of demand. (b) The factors or variable listed in the above demand function represent onlysome of the possible explanatory variables affecting demand for the community (c) Demand in inversely related to some of the variables and directly related to some others. For example, if X a normal commodity, then Qx is inversely related to Px, Pz and I. But in case of most of the other variables the relationship is direct. (d) some of the variables are easily quantifiable, like price, prices of related commodities, income, interest rate, expenditure advertisements, size and distribution of population. (e) The degree of control that a firm has over the variables differs in degree.For example, a firm's management does not have control over variables like consumers income, size and distribution of population, interest rate and prices of related commodities. But a firm has greater control over price, expenditure on advertisements and promotion. LAW OF DEMNAND Law of demand shows the relation between price and quantity demanded of a commodity in the market. In the words of Marshall, “the amount demand increases with a fall in price and diminishes with a rise in price”. A rise in the price of a commodity is followed by a reduction in demand and a fall in price is followed by an increase in demand, if a condition of demand remains constant. The law of demand may be explained with the help of the following demand schedule. Demand Schedule. Price of Apple (In. Rs.) Quantity Demanded 10 1 8 2 6 3  4 4 2 5 When the price falls from Rs. 10 to 8 quantity demand increases from 1 to 2. In the same way as price falls, quantity demand increases on the basis of the demand schedule we can draw the demand curve. Price The demand curve DD shows the inverse relation between price and quantity demand of apple. It is downward sloping. Assumptions: Law is demand is based on certain assumptions: 1. This is no change in consumers taste and preferences. 2. Income should remain constant. 3. Prices of other goods should not change. 4. There should be no substitute for the commodity 5. The commodity should not confer at any distinction 6. The demand for the commodity should be continuous 7. People should not expect any change in the price of the commodity Exceptional demand curve: Sometimes the demand curve slopes upwards from left to right. In this case the demand curve has a positive slope. Price When price increases from OP to Op1 quantity demanded also increases from to OQ1 and vice versa. The reasons for exceptional demand curve are as follows. 1. Giffen paradox: The Giffen good or inferior good is an exception to the law of demand. When the price of an inferior good falls, the poor will buy less and vice versa. For example, when the price of maize falls, the poor are willing to spend more on superior goods than on maize if the price of maize increases, he has to increase the quantity of money spent on it. Otherwise he will have to face starvation. Thus a fall in price is followed by reduction in quantity demanded and vice versa. “Giffen” first explained this and therefore it is called as Giffen’s paradox. 2. Veblen or Demonstration effect:‘Veblen’ has explained the exceptional demand curve through his doctrine of conspicuous consumption. Rich people buy certain good because it gives social distinction or prestige for example diamonds are bought by the richer class for the prestige it possess. It the price of diamonds falls poor also will buy is hence they will not give prestige. Therefore, rich people may stop buying this commodity. 3. Ignorance: Sometimes, the quality of the commodity is Judge by its price. Consumers think that the product is superior if the price is high. As such they buy more at a higher price. 4. Speculative effect: If the price of the commodity is increasing the consumers will buy more of it because of the fear that it increase still further, Thus, an increase in price may not be accomplished by a decrease in demand. 5. Fear of shortage: During the times of emergency of war People may expect shortage of a commodity. At that time, they may buy more at a higher price to keep stocks for the future. 6.Necessaries: In the case of necessaries like rice, vegetables etc. people buy more even at a higher price. CHANGE IN DEMAND: The increase or decrease in demand due to change in the factors other than price is called change in demand. Change in demand leads to a shift in the demand curve to the right or to the left. Increase and Decrease in Demand: Increase and decrease in demand are referred to change in demand due to changes in various other factors such as change in income, distribution of income, change in consumer’s tastes and preferences, change in the price of related goods, while Price factor is kept constant Increase in demand refers to the rise in demand of a product at a given price. On the other hand, decrease in demand refers to the fall in demand of a product at a given price. For example, essential goods, such as salt would be consumed in equal quantity, irrespective of increase or decrease in its price. Therefore, increase in demand implies that there is an increase in demand for a product at any price. Similarly, decrease in demand can also be referred as same quantity demanded at lower price, as the quantity demanded at higher price. Increase and decrease in demand is represented as the shift in demand curve. In the graphical representation of demand curve, the shifting of demand is demonstrated as the movement from one demand curve to another demand curve. In case of increase in demand, the demand curve shifts to right, while in case of decrease in demand, it shifts to left of the original demand curve. Following Figure shows the increase in demand: The above figure shows that, the movement from DD to D1D1 shows the increase in demand with price at constant (OP). However, the quantity has also increased from OQ to OQ1. Following Figure shows the decrease in demand: The above figure shows that, the movement from DD to D2D2 shows the decrease in demand with price at constant (OP). However, the quantity has also decreased from OQ to OQ2. Expansion and Contraction of Demand: The variations in the quantities demanded of a product with change in its price, while other factors are at constant, are termed as expansion or contraction of demand. Expansion of demand refers to the period when quantity demanded is more because of the fall in prices of a product. However, contraction of demand takes place when the quantity demanded is less due to rise in the price o a product. For example, consumers would reduce the consumption of milk in case the prices of milk increases and vice versa. Expansion and contraction are represented by the movement along the same demand curve. Movement from one point to another in a downward direction shows the expansion of demand, while an upward movement demonstrates the contraction of demand. Figure-11 demonstrates the expansion and contraction of demand: When the price changes from OP to OP1 and demand moves from OQ to OQ1, it shows the expansion of demand. However, the movement of price from OP to OP2 and movement of demand from OQ to OQ2 show the contraction of demand. ELASTICITY OF DEMAND Elasticity of demand explains the relationship between a change in price and consequent change in amount demanded. “Marshall” introduced the concept of elasticity of demand. Elasticity of demand shows the extent of change in quantity demanded to a change in price. In the words of “Marshall”, “The elasticity of demand in a market is great or small according as the amount demanded increases much or little for a given fall in the price and diminishes much or little for a given rise in Price” Elastic demand: A small change in price may lead to a great change in quantity demanded. In this case, demand is elastic. In-elastic demand: If a big change in price is followed by a small change in demanded then the demand in “inelastic”. Types and measurements of Elasticity of Demand: There are three types of elasticity of demand: 1. Price elasticity of demand 2. Income elasticity of demand 3. Cross elasticity of demand 4. Advertising elasticity of demand 1. Price elasticity of demand: Marshall was the first economist to define price elasticity of demand. Price elasticity of demand measures changes in quantity demand to a change in Price. It is the ratio of percentage change in quantity demanded to a percentage change in price. Proportionate change in the quantity demand of commodity Price elasticity = ------------------------------------------------------------------ Proportionate change in the price of commodity There are five cases of price elasticity of demand A. Perfectly elastic demand: When small change in price leads to an infinitely large change is quantity demand, it is called perfectly or infinitely elastic demand. In this case E=∞ The demand curve DD1 is horizontal straight line. It shows the at “OP” price any amount is demand and if price increases, the consumer will not purchase the commodity. B. Perfectly Inelastic Demand In this case, even a large change in price fails to bring about a change in quantity demanded. When price increases from ‘OP’ to ‘OP’, the quantity demanded remains the same. In other words the response of demand to a change in Price is nil. In this case ‘E’=0. C. Relatively elastic demand: Demand changes more than proportionately to a change in price. I.e. a small change in price loads to a very big change in the quantity demanded. In this case E > 1. This demand curve will be flatter. When price falls from ‘OP’ to ‘OP’, amount demanded increase from “OQ’ to “OQ1’ which is larger than the change in price. D. Relatively in-elastic demand. Quantity demanded changes less than proportional to a change in price. A large change in price leads to small change in amount demanded. Here E < 1. Demanded carve will be steeper. When price falls from “OP’ to ‘OP1 amount demanded increases from OQ to OQ1, which is smaller than the change in price. E. Unit elasticity of demand: The change in demand is exactly equal to the change in price. When both are equal E=1 and elasticity if said to be unitary. When price falls from ‘OP’ to ‘OP1’ quantity demanded increases from ‘OP’ to ‘OP1’, quantity demanded increases from ‘OQ’ to ‘OQ1’. Thus a change in price has resulted in an equal change in quantity demanded so price elasticity of demand is equal to unity. 2. Income elasticity of demand: Income elasticity of demand shows the change in quantity demanded as a result of a change in income. Income elasticity of demand may be slated in the form of a formula. Proportionate change in the quantity demand of commodity Income Elasticity = ------------------------------------------------------------------ Proportionate change in the income of the people Income elasticity of demand can be classified in to five types. A. Zero income elasticity: Quantity demanded remains the same, even though money income increases. Symbolically, it can be expressed as Ey=0. It can be depicted in the following way: As income increases from OY to OY1, quantity demanded never changes. B. Negative Income elasticity: When income increases, quantity demanded falls. In this case, income elasticity of demand is negative. i.e., Ey < 0. When income increases from OY to OY1, demand falls from OQ to OQ1. c. Unit income elasticity: When an increase in income brings about a proportionate increase in quantity demanded, and then income elasticity of demand is equal to one. Ey = 1 When income increases from OY to OY1, Quantity demanded also increases from OQ to OQ1. d. Income elasticity greater than unity: In this case, an increase in come brings about a more than proportionate increase in quantity demanded. Symbolically it can be written as Ey > 1. It shows high-income elasticity of demand. When income increases from OY to OY1, Quantity demanded increases from OQ to OQ1. e. Income elasticity leas than unity: When income increases quantity demanded also increases but less than proportionately. In this case E < 1. An increase in income from OY to OY, brings what an increase in quantity demanded from OQ to OQ1, But the increase in quantity demanded is smaller than the increase in income. Hence, income elasticity of demand is less than one. 3. Cross elasticity of Demand: A change in the price of one commodity leads to a change in the quantity demanded of another commodity. This is called a cross elasticity of demand. The formula for cross elasticity of demand is: Proportionate change in the quantity demand of commodity “X” Cross elasticity = ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Proportionate change in the price of commodity “Y” a. In case of substitutes, cross elasticity of demand is positive. E.g.: Coffee and Tea When the price of coffee increases, Quantity demanded of tea increases. Both are substitutes.  Price of Coffee b. In case of compliments, cross elasticity is negative. If increase in the price of one commodity leads to a decrease in the quantity demanded of another and vice versa. When price of car goes up from OP to OP, the quantity demanded of petrol decreases from OQ to OQ!. The cross-demanded curve has negative slope. c. In case of unrelated commodities, cross elasticity of demanded is zero. A change in the price of one commodity will not affect the quantity demanded of another. Quantity demanded of commodity “b” remains unchanged due to a change in the price of ‘A’, as both are unrelated goods. 4. Advertising elasticity of demand: Advertising elasticity of demand shows the change in quantity demanded as a result of a change in cost of Advertisement. Advertising elasticity of demand may be slated in the form of a formula. Proportionate change in the quantity demand of commodity Advertising Elasticity = ------------------------------------------------------------------ Proportionate change in the advertisement cost Factors influencing the elasticity of demand Elasticity of demand depends on many factors. 1. Nature of commodity Elasticity of demand of a commodity is influenced by its nature. A commodity for a person may be a necessity, a comfort or a luxury. i. When a commodity is a necessity like food grains, vegetables, medicines, etc., its demand is generally inelastic as it is required for human survival and its demand does not fluctuate much with change in price. ii. When a commodity is a comfort like fan, refrigerator, etc., its demand is generally elastic as consumer can postpone its consumption. iii. When a commodity is a luxury like AC, DVD player, etc., its demand is generally more elastic as compared to demand for comforts. iv. The term ‘luxury’ is a relative term as any item (like AC), may be a luxury for a poor person but a necessity for a rich person. 2. Availability of substitutes Demand for a commodity with large number of substitutes will be more elastic. The reason is that even a small rise in its prices will induce the buyers to go for its substitutes. For example, a rise in the price of Pepsi encourages buyers to buy Coke and vice-versa. Thus, availability of close substitutes makes the demand sensitive to change in the prices. On the other hand, commodities with few or no substitutes like wheat and salt have less price elasticity of demand. 3. Income Level: Elasticity of demand for any commodity is generally less for higher income level groups in comparison to people with low incomes. It happens because rich people are not influenced much by changes in the price of goods. But, poor people are highly affected by increase or decrease in the price of goods. As a result, demand for lower income group is highly elastic. 4. Level of price: Level of price also affects the price elasticity of demand. Costly goods like laptop, Plasma TV, etc. have highly elastic demand as their demand is very sensitive to changes in their prices. However, demand for inexpensive goods like needle, match box, etc. is inelastic as change in prices of such goods do not change their demand by a considerable amount. 5. Postponement of Consumption: Commodities like biscuits, soft drinks, etc. whose demand is not urgent, have highly elastic demand as their consumption can be postponed in case of an increase in their prices. However, commodities with urgent demand like life saving drugs, have inelastic demand because of their immediate requirement. 6. Number of Uses: If the commodity under consideration has several uses, then its demand will be elastic. When price of such a commodity increases, then it is generally put to only more urgent uses and, as a result, its demand falls. When the prices fall, then it is used for satisfying even less urgent needs and demand rises. For example, electricity is a multiple-use commodity. Fall in its price will result in substantial increase in its demand, particularly in those uses (like AC, Heat convector, etc.), where it was not employed formerly due to its high price. On the other hand, a commodity with no or few alternative uses has less elastic demand. 7. Share in Total Expenditure: Proportion of consumer’s income that is spent on a particular commodity also influences the elasticity of demand for it. Greater the proportion of income spent on the commodity, more is the elasticity of demand for it and vice-versa. Demand for goods like salt, needle, soap, match box, etc. tends to be inelastic as consumers spend a small proportion of their income on such goods. When prices of such goods change, consumers continue to purchase almost the same quantity of these goods. However, if the proportion of income spent on a commodity is large, then demand for such a commodity will be elastic. 8. Time Period: Price elasticity of demand is always related to a period of time. It can be a day, a week, a month, a year or a period of several years. Elasticity of demand varies directly with the time period. Demand is generally inelastic in the short period. It happens because consumers find it difficult to change their habits, in the short period, in order to respond to a change in the price of the given commodity. However, demand is more elastic in long rim as it is comparatively easier to shift to other substitutes, if the price of the given commodity rises. 9. Habits: Commodities, which have become habitual necessities for the consumers, have less elastic demand. It happens because such a commodity becomes a necessity for the consumer and he continues to purchase it even if its price rises. Alcohol, tobacco, cigarettes, etc. are some examples of habit forming commodities. Finally it can be concluded that elasticity of demand for a commodity is affected by number of factors. However, it is difficult to say, which particular factor or combination of factors determines the elasticity. It all depends upon circumstances of each case. Importance of Elasticity of Demand: The concept of elasticity of demand is of much practical importance. 1. Price fixation The elasticity of demand for a product is the basis of its price determination. The ratio in which the demand for a product will fall with the rise in its price and vice versa can be known with the knowledge of elasticity of demand If the demand for a product is inelastic, the producer can charge high price for it, whereas for an elastic demand product he will charge low price. Thus, the knowledge of elasticity of demand is essential for management in order to earn maximum profit. 2. Determination of factors of Production The concept of elasticity for demand is of great importance for determining prices of various factors of production. Factors of production are paid according to their elasticity of demand. In other words, if the demand of a factor is inelastic, its price will be high and if it is elastic, its price will be low. 3. In Demand Forecasting: The elasticity of demand is the basis of demand forecasting. The knowledge of income elasticity is essential for demand forecasting of producible goods in future. Long- term production planning and management depend more on the income elasticity because management can know the effect of changing income levels on the demand for his product. 4. In the Determination of Government Policies: The knowledge of elasticity of demand is also helpful for the government in determining its policies. Before imposing statutory price control on a product, the government must consider the elasticity of demand for that product.The government decision to declare public utilities those industries whose products have inelastic demand and are in danger of being controlled by monopolist interests depends upon the elasticity of demand for their products. 5. In the Determination of Output Level: For making production profitable, it is essential that the quantity of goods and services should be produced corresponding to the demand for that product. Since the changes in demand is due to the change in price, the knowledge of elasticity of demand is necessary for determining the output level. 6.Helpful in Adopting the Policy of Protection: The government considers the elasticity of demand of the products of those industries which apply for the grant of a subsidy or protection. Subsidy or protection is given to only those industries whose products have an elastic demand. As a consequence, they are unable to face foreign competition unless their prices are lowered through subsidy or by raising the prices of imported goods by imposing heavy duties on them. 7.In the Determination of Gains from International Trade: The gains from international trade depend, among others, on the elasticity of demand. A country will gain from international trade if it exports goods with less elasticity of demand and import those goods for which its demand is elastic. In the first case, it will be in a position to charge a high price for its products and in the latter case it will be paying less for the goods obtained from the other country. Thus, it gains both ways and shall be able to increase the volume of its exports and imports. Demand Forecasting Introduction: The information about the future is essential for both new firms and those planning to expand the scale of their production. Demand forecasting refers to an estimate of future demand for the product. It is an ‘objective assessment of the future course of demand”. In recent times, forecasting plays an important role in business decision-making. Demand forecasting has an important influence on production planning. It is essential for a firm to produce the required quantities at the right time. It is essential to distinguish between forecasts of demand and forecasts of sales. Sales forecast is important for estimating revenue cash requirements and expenses. Demand forecasts relate to production, inventory control, timing, reliability of forecast etc. However, there is not much difference between these two terms.  Demand forecasting essentially involves ascertaining the expected level of demand during the period under consideration.  Sales is a function of demand. Likewise, even cost of production depends upon demand.  Production of any commodity requires time and resources.  In order to plan the level of production and make arrangements for the resources to be consumed, it is important to estimate future demand. Stages in forecasting demand  Specification of objective(s)  Selection of appropriate technique  Collection of appropriate data  Estimation and interpretation of results  Evaluation of the forecasts Factors governing elasticity of demand  functional nature of demand  Types of forecasts  Forecasting level  Degree of orientation  Established or new products  Nature of goods   Degree of competition  Other factors: change in technology, change in pilitical conditions, changes in customer preference and fashions etc. Types of demand Forecasting: Based on the time span and planning requirements of business firms, demand forecasting can be classified in to 1. Short-term demand forecasting and 2. Long – term demand forecasting. 1. Short-term demand forecasting: Short-term demand forecasting is limited to short periods, usually for one year. It relates to policies regarding sales, purchase, price and finances. It refers to existing production capacity of the firm. Short-term forecasting is essential for formulating is essential for formulating a suitable price policy. If the business people expect of rise in the prices of raw materials of shortages, they may buy early. This price forecasting helps in sale policy formulation. Production may be undertaken based on expected sales and not on actual sales. Further, demand forecasting assists in financial forecasting also. Prior information about production and sales is essential to provide additional funds on reasonable terms. 2. Long – term forecasting: In long-term forecasting, the businessmen should now about the long-term demand for the product. Planning of a new plant or expansion of an existing unit depends on long-term demand. Similarly a multi product firm must take into account the demand for different items. When forecast are mode covering long periods, the probability of error is high. It is vary difficult to forecast the production, the trend of prices and the nature of competition. Hence quality and competent forecasts are essential. Prof. C. I. Savage and T.R. Small classify demand forecasting into time types. They are: 1. Economic forecasting, 2. Industry forecasting, 3. Firm level forecasting.  Economic forecasting is concerned with the economics, while industrial level forecasting is used for inter-industry comparisons and is being supplied by trade association or chamber of commerce. Firm level forecasting relates to individual firm. Demand forecasting techniques 1. survey method (a) survey of buyers intention  census method  Sample method (b) sales force opinion 2. Statistical methods (a) Trend projection methods  trend line by observation  Least squares method  Time series analysis  Moving averages method  Exponential smoothing (b) Barometric techniques (c) Simultaneous equation method (d)correlation and regression method 3. Other methods (a) Expert opinion method (b) Test marketing (c ) controlled experiments (d) Judgmental approach 1. Survey method (a)Consumer’s Survey Method or Survey of Buyer’s Intentions: In this method, the consumers are directly approached to disclose their future purchase plans. I his is done by interviewing all consumers or a selected group of consumers out of the relevant population. This is the direct method of estimating demand in the short run. Here the burden of forecasting is shifted to the buyer. The firm may go in for complete enumeration or for sample surveys. If the commodity under consideration is an intermediate product then the industries using it as an end product are surveyed (b) Sales Force Opinion Method: This is also known as collective opinion method. In this method, instead of consumers, the opinion of the salesmen is sought. It is sometimes referred as the “grass roots approach” as it is a bottom-up method that requires each sales person in the company to make an individual forecast for his or her particular sales territory. These individual forecasts are discussed and agreed with the sales manager. The composite of all forecasts then constitutes the sales forecast for the organisation. The advantages of this method are that it is easy and cheap. It does not involve any elaborate statistical treatment. The main merit of this method lies in the collective wisdom of salesmen. This method is more useful in forecasting sales of new products. 2. Statistical Method: Statistical methods have proved to be immensely useful in demand forecasting. In order to maintain objectivity, that is, by consideration of all implications and viewing the problem from an external point of view, the statistical methods are used. The important statistical methods are: (i) Trend Projection Method: A firm existing for a long time will have its own data regarding sales for past years. Such data when arranged chronologically yield what is referred to as ‘time series’. Time series shows the past sales with effective demand for a particular product under normal conditions. Such data can be given in a tabular or graphic form for further analysis. This is the most popular method among business firms, partly because it is simple and inexpensive and partly because time series data often exhibit a persistent growth trend. (a)Trend line by observation method This is the simplest technique to determine the trend. All values of output or sale for different years are plotted on a graph and a smooth free hand curve is drawn passing through as many points as possible. The direction of this free hand curve—upward or downward— shows the trend. (b) Least Square Method: Under the least square method, a trend line can be fitted to the time series data with the help of statistical techniques such as least square regression. When the trend in sales over time is given by straight line, the equation of this line is of the form: y = a + bx. Where ‘a’ is the intercept and ‘b’ shows the impact of the independent variable. We have two variables—the independent variable x and the dependent variable y. The line of best fit establishes a kind of mathematical relationship between the two variables.v and y. This is expressed by the regression у on x. In order to solve the equation s = x + y(T), we have to make use of the following normal equations: Σ S =Nx + yΣ T Σ ST=x Σ T+Y Σ T2 Whereas S= sales, T= year number, N= number of years (c) Time series analysis: Time series has got four types of components namely, Secular Trend (T), Secular Variation (S), Cyclical Element (C), and an Irregular or Random Variation (I). These elements are expressed by the equation O = TSCI. Secular trend refers to the long run changes that occur as a result of general tendency. Seasonal variations refer to changes in the short run weather pattern or social habits. Cyclical variations refer to the changes that occur in industry during depression and boom. Random variation refers to the factors which are generally able such as wars, strikes, flood, and famine and so on. When a forecast is made the seasonal, cyclical and random variations are removed from the observed data. Thus only the secular trend is left. This trend is then projected. Trend projection fits a trend line to a mathematical equation. (ii) Barometric Technique: A barometer is an instrument of measuring change. This method is based on the notion that “the future can be predicted from certain happenings in the present.” In other words, barometric techniques are based on the idea that certain events of the present can be used to predict the directions of change in the future. This is accomplished by the use of economic and statistical indicators which serve as barometers of economic change. c. Regression and correlation method: Regression and correlation are used for forecasting demand. Based on post data the future data trend is forecasted. If the functional relationship is analyzed with the independent variable it is simple correction. When there are several independent variables it is multiple correlation. In correlation we analyze the nature of relation between the variables while in regression; the extent of relation between the variables is analyzed. The results are expressed in mathematical form. Therefore, it is called as econometric model building. The main advantage of this method is that it provides the values of the independent variables from within the model itself. (d)Simultaneous Equations Model: Under simultaneous equation model, demand forecasting involves the estimation of several simultaneous equations. These equations are often the behavioral equations, market-clearing equations, and mathematical identities. The regression technique is based on the assumption of one-way causation, which means independent variables cause variations in the dependent variables, and not vice-versa. In simple terms, the independent variable is in no way affected by the dependent variable. For example, D = a – bP, which shows that price affects demand, but demand does not affect the price, which is an unrealistic assumption. On the contrary, the simultaneous equations model enables a forecaster to study the simultaneous interaction between the dependent and independent variables. Thus, simultaneous equation model is a systematic and complete approach to forecasting. This method employs several mathematical and statistical tools of estimation. III) OTHER METHODS (a)Expert opinion method In this method of demand forecasting, the firm makes an effort to obtain the opinion of experts who have long standing experience in the field of enquiry related to the product under consideration. If the forecast is based on the opinion of several experts then the approach is called forecasting through the use of panel consensus. Although the panel consensus method usually results in forecasts that embody the collective wisdom of consulted experts, it may be at times unfavorably affected by the force of personality of one or few key individuals. To counter this disadvantage of panel consensus, another approach is developed called the Delphi method. In this method a panel of experts is individually presented a series of questions pertaining to the forecasting problem. Responses acquired from the experts are analyzed by an independent party that will provide the feedback to the panel members. Based on the responses of other individuals, each expert is then asked to make a revised forecast. This process continues till a consensus is reached or until further iterations generate no change in estimates. The advantage of Delphi technique is that it helps individual panel members in assessing their forecasts. However Delphi method is quite expensive. Often, the most knowledgeable experts in the industry will command more fees. Besides, those who consider themselves as experts may be reluctant to be influenced by the opinions of others on the panel. The main advantage of the Experts Opinion Survey Method is its simplicity. It does not require extensive statistical or mathematical calculations However this method has its own limitations. It is purely subjective. It substitutes opinion in place of analysis of the situation. Experts may have different forecasts or any one among them may influence others. Who knows experts may be biased or have their own intentions behind providing their opinions. If the consulted experts are genuinely reliable then panel consensus could be perhaps the best method of forecasting. (b) Test marketing: The Test Marketing is one of the methods used under the Market Test. What The Test Marketing is yet another method of sales forecasting, wherein the new product is launched in the selected geographical areas, the representative of the final market, to check the viability of the product and its demand among the selected group of people. The test marketing is the most reliable method of sales forecasting wherein the product is launched in a few selected cities/town to check the response of customers towards the product. On the basis of such response, the firm decides whether to commercialize the product on a large scale or not. The test marketing must be performed with utmost care; the marketers must select those areas for testing that depicts the true image of the overall market. (c) Controlled Experiments: Under this method, an effort is made to ascertain separately certain determinants of demand which can be maintained, e.g., price, advertising etc. and conducting the experiment, assuming etc., and conducting the experiment, assuming that the other factors remain constant. Thus, the effect of demand determinants like price, advertisement packing etc., on sales can be assessed by either varying them over different markets or by varying them over different time periods in the same market. (d)Judgmental methods When none of the above methods are directly related to the given product or service, the management has no alternative other than using its own judgment. Judgmental forecasting methods incorporate intuitive judgment, opinions and subjective probability estimates. Judgmental forecasting is used in cases where there is lack of historical data or during completely new and unique market condition. Consumers Equilibrium When consumers make choices about the quantity of goods and services to consume, it is presumed that their objective is to maximize total utility. In maximizing total utility, the consumer faces a number of constraints, the most important of which are the consumer'sincome and the prices of the goods and services that the consumer wishes to consume. The consumer's effort to maximize total utility, subject to these constraints, is referred to as the consumer's problem. The solution to the consumer's problem, which entails decisions about how much the consumer will consume of a number of goods and services, is referred to as consumer equilibrium. Determination of consumer equilibrium: Consider the simple case of a consumer who cares about consuming only two goods: good 1 and good 2. This consumer knows the prices of goods 1 and 2 and has a fixed income or budget that can be used to purchase quantities of goods 1 and 2. The consumer will purchase quantities of goods 1 and 2 so as to completely exhaust the budget for such purchases. The actual quantities purchased of each good are determined by the condition for consumer equilibrium, which is This condition states that the marginal utility per dollar spent on good 1 must equal the marginal utility per dollar spent on good 2. If, for example, the marginal utility per dollar spent on good 1 were higher than the marginal utility per dollar spent on good 2, then it would make sense for the consumer to purchase more of good 1 rather than purchasing any more of good 2. After purchasing more and more of good 1, the marginal utility of good 1 will eventually fall due to the law of diminishing marginal utility, so that the marginal utility per dollar spent on good 1 will eventually equal that of good 2. Of course, the amount purchased of goods 1 and 2 cannot be limitless and will depend not only on the marginal utilities per dollar spent, but also on the consumer's budget. Unit-III: Production & cost Analysis Production function, Production functions with one/two variables, Cobb-Douglas Production Function Marginal Rate of Technical Substitution, Isoquants and Isocosts, Returns to Scale and Returns to Factors, Economies of scale. Cost concepts, determinants of cost, cost-output relationship in the short run and long run, short run vs. long run costs, average cost curves, Overall Cost leadership. Introduction: Production Function Production Production is processes that create/adds value or utility. It is the process in which the inputs are converted in to outputs. Inputs : Fixed inputs and Variable inputs The factors of production that is carry out the production is called inputs. Fixed inputs Variable inputs  Remain the same in the short  In the long run all factors of period. production are varies according  At any level of out put, the to the volume of outputs. amount is remain the same.  The cost of variable inputs is  The cost of these inputs are called Variable Cost called Fixed Cost  Example:- Raw materials,  Examples:- Building, Land etc labour, etc  ( In the long run fixed inputs are become varies) What is Production Function? The basic relationship between the factors of production and the output is reffered to as a Production Function. The firm’s production function for a particular good (q) shows the maximum amount of the good that can be produced using alternative combinations of capital (K) and labor (L) The production function expresses a functional relationship between physical inputs and physical outputs of a firm at any particular time period. The output is thus a function of inputs. Mathematically production function can be written as Q= f (L1, L2, C,O,T) Where “Q” stands for the quantity of output and L1, L2, C,O,T are various input factors such as land, labour, capital and organization and technology. Here output is the function of inputs. Hence output becomes the dependent variable and inputs are the independent variables. It is a technical relation which connects factors inputs used in the production function and the level of outputs Q = f (Land, Labour, Capital, Organization, Technology, etc) The above function does not state by how much the output of “Q” changes as a consequence of change of variable inputs. In order to express the quantitative relationship between inputs and output, Production function has been expressed in a precise mathematical equation i.e. Y= a+b (x) Which shows that there is a constant relationship between applications of input (the only factor input ‘X’ in this case) and the amount of output (y) produced. Importance: 1. When inputs are specified in physical units, production function helps to estimate the level of production. 2. It becomes is equates when different combinations of inputs yield the same level of output. 3. It indicates the manner in which the firm can substitute on input for another without altering the total output. 4. When price is taken into consideration, the production function helps to select the least combination of inputs for the desired output. 5. It considers two types’ input-output relationships namely ‘law of variable proportions’ and ‘law of returns to scale’. Law of variable propositions explains the pattern of output in the short-run as the units of variable inputs are increased to increase the output. On the other hand law of returns to scale explains the pattern of output in the long run as all the units of inputs are increased. 6. The production function explains the maximum quantity of output, which can be produced, from any chosen quantities of various inputs or the minimum quantities of various inputs that are required to produce a given quantity of output. Production function can be fitted the particular firm or industry or for the economy as whole. Production function will change with an improvement in technology. Assumptions: Production function has the following assumptions. 1. The production function is related to a particular period of time. 2. There is no change in technology. 3. The producer is using the best techniques available. 4. The factors of production are divisible.  5. Production function can be fitted to a short run or to long run. Types of production function:- These two types of relationships have been explained in the form of laws. i) Law of variable proportions ( short run production function) ii) Law of returns to scale ( long run production function) I. Law of variable proportions: The law of variable proportions which is a new name given to old classical concept of “Law of diminishing returns has played a vital role in the modern economics theory. Assume that a firms production function consists of fixed quantities of all inputs (land, equipment, etc.) except labour which is a variable input when the firm expands output by employing more and more labour it alters the proportion between fixed and the variable inputs. The law can be stated as follows: “When total output or production of a commodity is increased by adding units of a variable input while the quantities of other inputs are held constant, the increase in total production becomes after some point, smaller and smaller” “If equal increments of one input are added, the inputs of other production services being held constant, beyond a certain point the resulting increments of product will decrease i.e. the marginal product will diminish”. (G. Stigler) “As the proportion of one factor in a combination of factors is increased, after a point, first the marginal and then the average product of that factor will diminish”. (F. Benham) The law of variable proportions refers to the behaviour of output as the quantity of one Factor is increased Keeping the quantity of other factors fixed and further it states that the marginal product and average product will eventually do cline. This law states three types of productivity an input factor – Total, average and marginal physical productivity. Assumptions of the Law: The law is based upon the following assumptions: i) The state of technology remains constant. If there is any improvement in technology, the average and marginal output will not decrease but increase. ii) Only one factor of input is made variable and other factors are kept constant. This law does not apply to those cases where the factors must be used in rigidly fixed proportions. iii) All units of the variable factors are homogenous. Three stages of law: The behaviors of the Output when the varying quantity of one factor is combines with a fixed quantity of the other can be divided in to three district stages. The three stages can be better understood by following the table. Variable Fixed factor factor Total Average Marginal Stages (Labour) product Product Product 1 1 100 100 - Stage I 1 2 220 120 120 1 3 270 90 50 1 4 300 75 30 Stage II 1 5 320 64 20 1 6 330 55 10 1 7 330 47 0 Stage III 1 8 320 40 -10 Above table reveals that both average product and marginal product increase in the beginning and then decline of the two marginal products drops of faster than average product. Total product is maximum when the farmer employs 6th worker, nothing is produced by the 7th worker and its marginal productivity is zero, whereas marginal product of 8 th worker is ‘-10’, by just creating credits 8th worker not only fails to make a positive contribution but leads to a fall in the total output. Production function with one variable input and the remaining fixed inputs is illustrated as below From the above graph the law of variable proportions operates in three stages. In the first stage, total product increases at an increasing rate. The marginal product in this stage increases at an increasing rate resulting in a greater increase in total product. The average product also increases. This stage continues up to the point where average product is equal to marginal product. The law of increasing returns is in operation at this stage. The law of diminishing returns starts operating from the second stage awards. At the second stage total product increases only at a diminishing rate. The average product also declines. The second stage comes to an end where total product becomes maximum and marginal product becomes zero. The marginal product becomes negative in the third stage. So the total product also declines. The average product continues to decline. We can sum up the above relationship thus when ‘A.P.’ is rising, “M. P.’ rises more than “ A. P; When ‘A. P.” is maximum and constant, ‘M. P.’ becomes equal to ‘A. P.’ when ‘A. P.’ starts falling, ‘M. P.’ falls faster than ‘ A. P.’Thus, the total product, marginal product and average product pass through three phases, viz., increasing diminishing and negative returns stage. The law of variable proportion is nothing but the combination of the law of increasing and demising returns. II. Law of Returns of Scale: The law of returns to scale explains the behavior of the total output in response to change in the scale of the firm, i.e., in response to a simultaneous to changes in the scale of the firm, i.e., in response to a simultaneous and proportional increase in all the inputs. More precisely, the Law of returns to scale explains how a simultaneous and proportionate increase in all the inputs affects the total output at its various levels. When a firm expands, its scale increases all its inputs proportionally, then technically there are three possibilities. (i) The total output may increase proportionately (ii) The total output may increase more than proportionately and (iii) The total output may increase less than proportionately. Types of returns to scale 1. Increasing Return to Scale: If increase in the output is greater than the proportional increase in the inputs, it means increasing return to scale. 2. Constant returns to scale: If increase in the total output is proportional to the increase in input, it means constant returns to scale. 3. Diminishing Returns to Scale: If increase in the output is less than proportional increase in the inputs, it means diminishing returns to scale. Labour Capital TP MP 2 1 8 8  4 2 18 10 6 3 30 12 8 4 40 10 Increasing returns to scale (Inputs 10% increase – Outputs 15% increase) 10 5 50 10 12 6 60 10 Constant returns to scale (Inputs 10% increase – Outputs 10% increase) 14 7 68 8 16 8 74 6 18 9 78 4 Decreasing returns to scale (Inputs 10% increase – Outputs 5% increase) Production Function with Two Variable Factors For the analysis of production function with two variable factors we make use of the concept called isoquants or iso- product curves which are similar to indifference curves of the theory of demand. Therefore, before we explain the production function with two variable factors and returns to scale, we shall explain the concept of isoquants (that is, equal product curves) and their properties. ISOQUANTS: The term Isoquants is derived from the words ‘iso’ and ‘quant’ – ‘Iso’ means equal and ‘quant’ implies quantity. Isoquant therefore, means equal quantity. A family of iso-product curves or isoquants or production difference curves can represent a production function with two variable inputs, which are substitutable for one another within limits. Isoquants are the curves, which represent the different combinations of inputs producing a particular quantity of output. Any combination on the Isoquant represents the some level of output. For a given output level firm’s production become, Q= f (L, K) Where ‘Q’, is the units of output is a function of the quantity of two inputs ‘L’ and ‘K’. Thus an Isoquant shows all possible combinations of two inputs, which are capable of producing equal or a given level of output. Since each combination yields same output, the producer becomes indifferent towards these combinations. Assumptions: 1. There are only two factors of production, viz. labour and capital. 2. The two factors can substitute each other up to certain limit 3. The shape of the Isoquant depends upon the extent of substitutability of the two inputs. 4. The technology is given over a period. An Isoquant may be explained with the help of an arithmetical example. Labor is on the X-axis and capital is on the Y-axis. IQ is the ISO-Product curve which shows all the alternative combinations A, B, C, D, E which can produce 50 quintals of a product. Combinations Labour (units) Capital (Units) Output (quintals) A 1 12 50 B 2 8 50 C 3 5 50 D 4 3 50 E 5 2 50 The concept of isoquant can be easily understood from Table 17.1. It is presumed that two factors labour and capital are being employed to produce a product. Each of the factor combinations A. B, C, D and E produces the same level of output, say 100 units. To start with, factor combination A consisting of 1 unit of labour and 12 units of capital produces the given 100 units of output. Similarly, combination B consisting of 2 units of labour and 8 units of capital, combination C con- sisting of 3 units of labour and 5 units of capital, combination D consisting of 4 units of labour and 3 units of capital, combination E consisting of 5 units of labour and 2 units of capital are capable of producing the same amount of output, i.e., 100 units. In the above graph we have plotted all these combinations and by joining them we obtain an isoquant showing that every combination represented on it can produce 100 units of output. Though isoquants are similar to be indifference curves of the theory of consumer’s behaviour, there is one important difference between the two. An indifference curve represents all those combinations of two goods which provide the same sat