Livelihoods, Resilience & Migration PDF

Livelihoods, Resilience & Migration In the Context of Slow Onset Climate Change in the IGAD Region Case Study of the Karamoja-Turkana Cross Border Area Simon Peter Longoli...

Livelihoods, Resilience & Migration In the Context of Slow Onset Climate Change in the IGAD Region Case Study of the Karamoja-Turkana Cross Border Area Simon Peter Longoli Padmini Iyer Pastoralist watering animals at Naotin in Turkana, Kenya. Implemented by Contents Acronyms 1 Acknowledgements 2 Executive Summary 3 Introduction 6 Section I: Climate Change, Livelihood and Human Mobility in the IGAD Region 9 Ecology, Economy and Livelihoods in the IGAD Region 10 Climate Change Impacts on Livelihoods in the IGAD Region 12 Mobility and Migration in the IGAD Region 13 Community Coping Mechanisms in the IGAD Region 15 Section II: Case Study - The Karamoja Cross-Border Cluster 17 Context 18 Climate Change in the Karamoja Cross-Border Cluster 18 Impact of Climate Change on Livelihoods and Migration Patterns in the Karamoja Cluster 20 Gaps in the Literature 21 Field Study 22 Rationale for Field Study 22 Research Questions 22 Methodology 22 Findings 24 Section III: Programming for Resilience to Climate Change Effects in the Karamoja Cluster 41 The Case for a More Holistic Approach to Resilience-Building Activities 42 A Trade-Oriented Support and Infrastructure Development 42 Population Management and Support to Mobility 44 Management of Pests and Diseases 45 Conflict Management 46 Information Sharing and Coordination 48 Annex I: List of Research Locations 49 References 50 Acronyms ASALs: Arid and Semi-Arid Lands CBDFU: IGAD Cross Border Development Facilitation Unit FAO: The Food and Agricultural Organisation of the United Nations FGD: Focus Group Discussion GIZ: Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit GmbH GP HMCCC: Global Programme Human Mobility in the Context of Climate Change HoA: Horn of Africa ICPALD: IGAD Centre For Pastoral Areas and Livestock Development IGAD: The Intergovernmental Authority on Development KII: Key Informant Interview NDMA: Kenya National Drought Management Authority NGO: Nongovernmental Organisation 1 Acknowledgements We would like to express our deepest gratitude to the IGAD Migration Programme under the leadership of Director Fathia Alwan to which we have turned for guidance in our research and the topics we addressed. More specifically we would like to give special thanks to Lena Brenn for her support in the revision of the study. We would also like to acknowledge and give our warmest thanks to IGAD and its Cross-Border Development and Facilitation Unit in Karamoja lead by Dr. Dominic Kathiya who was able to provide us with the right resources and put us in contact with the key persons needed to successfully complete this study. Thanks also go to Dr. Ahmed Amdihun, coordinator of the Disaster Risk Management of IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) and Mohamed Omar, Mobility Analyst for their support in reviewing the study. Finally, this journey across the borderlands of Uganda and Kenya could not have been undertaken without the critical support of the GIZ SCIDA III project in Moroto. 2 Executive Summary The Intergovernmental Authority on Development Key Findings from the Field Study: (IGAD) region’s borderlands are typically classified Overall, participants in this study understood as Arid and Semi-Arid lands (ASALs), which are and attributed worsening climatic conditions to: home to pastoral and agro-pastoral communities ordinary cyclicality – a bad year must be followed by who have adapted to and exploit the resources and a good one; supernatural forces; and degradations the geography of the region for their livelihoods. brought to the land. However, for some informants However, the current repertoire of pastoral in Turkana County, often confronted with the practices is insufficient or unsuitable in the face harshest drought conditions in the area with dry of the increasing effects of climate change. Slow seasons extending over many years, the assumption onset effects such as droughts, though predictable that the climate is not changing but is only going and a well-understood phenomenon, have a through cyclical phases is slowly disappearing. growing impact on borderland communities due to a rise in their frequency, and their magnitude 1. Informants attributed declining animal combined with a host of other factors such as health, rapidly spreading animal diseases, low high rates of population growth and recurring pasture availability and quality and decreased conflict and violence. Coupled with the general water sources to climate change. Although marginalisation that border regions experience, these factors have always been a cause of climate change and related slow onset effects have concern for pastoralists in the Karamoja for a wide-ranging impact on livelihoods. decades, they have observed an increase in the prevalence of these stressors. This report summarises the complex interactions between droughts, migration and displacement 2. The immediate, short- and long-term effects and the influence of climate change on decisions of climate change have forced pastoralists to around livelihoods and mobility in the border consider a number of adaptation mechanisms areas of the IGAD region. The first section of the to drought. These strategies range from paper is a literature review for which academic and environmental action, social support-seeking, grey literature were consulted. The second part planning for drought and consideration of of this report presents a case study on livelihood alternative sources of livelihood. and human mobility in the context of climate 3. One of the key coping mechanisms to harsh change conducted with pastoral and agro-pastoral and/or long drought periods is the sale of communities residing in the IGAD Karamoja livestock and the pursuit of other means of cross-border cluster, which straddles the Uganda- livelihood. These alternative livelihoods have Kenya border. The field research was conducted to generally low returns, barely contribute to understand how local pastoral and agro-pastoral the sustenance of productive assets (such as communities are dealing with climate change, what livestock and poultry) and are unsustainable impact climate change has had on their livelihoods, in the long run. Moreover, some alternative and how decisions around migration in the context livelihoods, such as the collection and burning of climate change are made. Finally, the study also of wood to sell the obtained charcoal, while explores how communities see the role and impact serving a short-term financial need also cause of governmental and non-governmental actors in environmental degradation, which can, in turn, building their resilience to climate change. further exacerbate food insecurity and poverty. 3  4. Decisions to migrate are largely driven by 7. Mobile phones, to which more and more the needs of the household, the overall pastoralists have access, have eased the community and the livestock, and are communication process for migratory conditioned by the level of insecurity. decision-making. Where in the past, Insecurity leads to both mobility and messages would have to be relayed immobility, with some populations through messengers, kraal leaders are driven away by it and some trapped in now able to call other kraals to inquire place because of it. Insecurity can also about water and pasture conditions, lead to mobility when moving in a group insecurity-related incidents and arrange is a necessary strategy to defend oneself community meetings. and livestock against raids and also 8. Although increasing frequent and harsh when one is compelled to move without droughts have undoubtedly negatively weapons after being disarmed by the impacted pastoralists’ livelihoods authorities. and wellbeing and thus weigh heavily 5. Decisions to migrate also depend on the on migration decisions, insecurity attractiveness of the potential migration is currently the greatest factor area, which is evaluated through surveys influencing mobility and immobility done prior to any movement: typically, in the Karamoja cross-border cluster. a few members of the community are Although the link between climate sent to areas that are known to have change and the resurgence of conflicts received rain, these individuals evaluate is complex, several pastoralists whether the pasture and water are interviewed during this study have healthy and plentiful enough to sustain stressed the fact that, based on their their animals. This information is life experience, the likelihood and the then relayed to the families, who then severity of conflicts are considerably prepare to migrate or not based on this increased by climate change. During information. times of stress (such as droughts or floods), when available resources are 6. There are both informal and formal particularly limited, the risk of conflict processes that regulate movement - is greater. Conflicts often take the form these include consultation practices of livestock raiding, which has evolved carried out by communities (informal) over time to something more akin to a and the submission of official request commercial activity. letters for the obtainment of permits required for movement issued by the local governments (formal). 4 The following ideas on resilience-building intervention areas were gathered from interviews with community members: a. A more holistic approach to resilience-building d. Management of pests and diseases: in the activities: communities show a strong preference context of transhumance, management for resilience activities in the Karamoja cluster of pests and diseases is an issue of great that are targeted towards livelihood assistance concern to pastoralists and governments alike. and include communities in defining the form Comprehensive strategies that tackle livestock this support would take. This assistance cannot and human diseases simultaneously through an bear its fruits without an enabling institutional ecosystem perspective must be considered in arrangement; any resilience-building interventions; e. Conflict management: tackling conflicts, b. A trade-oriented support and infrastructure especially cattle rustling and raiding, and the development: exchange of goods and services retaliatory actions that come with it, should be is considered central for the evolution of a critical consideration to ensure the health, pastoralists in the region. According to them it wellbeing and prosperity of people as well as has the potential to transform the borderlands their livestock; and should be a core part of any successful resilience interventions; f. Information-sharing and coordination: regulators and decision-makers must better c. Population management and migration: coordinate and share information with guaranteeing the easy and safe movement of community leaders. Moreover, knowledge gaps pastoralists is a prerequisite for the establishment on drought and climate change in pastoral of any durable resilience programming since communities must be addressed. Engaging in mobility is an essential part of the pastoral way these two areas will ensure better ownership of life; and engagement from pastoral communities in resilience-building activities. 5 Introduction Human mobility in the context of climate change (IGAD-MAP) 2015-2020 – a new MAP is currently (HMCCC) is an umbrella term used to describe being developed covering the period 2022-2027. changes of residence in anticipation or response In 2020, the IGAD Protocol on Free Movement of to climate change impacts, and encompasses Persons was endorsed. It includes the facilitation (internal) migration, forced displacement and of the movement of persons affected by disasters planned relocations. More intense and/or frequent (Article 16). This protocol will be implemented in extreme weather events as well as gradual changes several steps outlined in a roadmap until 2037. in the climate and environment are already affecting By 2028, laws, policies and procedures should be many people and their livelihoods. In the future, developed, reviewed and harmonised to facilitate the adverse effects of climate change will continue the movement of persons displaced by disasters in to have significant impacts on human mobility and accordance with the Protocol. be major influencing factors in people’s decisions Despite their vastness and diversity, the to leave their homes. Existing migration patterns Intergovernmental Authority on Development are most likely to intensify. region’s borderlands have some peculiar commonalities uniting them. These borderlands At the global and regional levels, data and are typically classified as Arid and Semi-Arid knowledge need to be improved to shape lands (ASALs) – as is most of the IGAD region. development-oriented approaches to manage and They are home to pastoralist and agro-pastoralist facilitate migration, reduce internal displacement communities who exploit the resources and the and achieve transparent, participatory, and geography of their regions in innovative ways. demand-oriented relocation. High temperatures, low rainfall, low biomass The Intergovernmental Authority on Development production, and a generally unstable climate (IGAD) comprises the countries of Djibouti, in the region have led to the evolution of an Eritrea (suspended membership), Ethiopia, Kenya, economy based on livestock rearing, ownership Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, and Uganda. It was and production, supplemented by opportunistic initially created in 1986 as the Inter-Governmental or habitual agriculture. In some countries of Authority for Drought and Development (IGADD) the IGAD region, over 50% of the national gross to coordinate the efforts of its Member States in domestic product derives from the livestock combating desertification and promoting efforts sector (FAO, 2019a). In Kenya alone, for instance, to mitigate the effects of drought. The IGAD livestock represents the main source of livelihood Migration Programme under the Directorate of for at least 57% of the households in the border Health and Social Development (HSD) supports its counties of Mandera, Marsabit, Turkana and Wajir member states in improving the implementation (Krätli and Swift 2014). of relevant policies on climate change-related In its Regional Migration Policy Framework, IGAD displacement and migration. Core strategies highlights that climate change and migration are with respect to migration and displacement are two processes that cannot be addressed separately. laid out in the IGAD Regional Migration Policy The impacts of climate change are categorised Framework (IGAD-RMPF) adopted in 2015 and into two groups. There are sudden and slow operationalised in the IGAD-Migration Action Plan onset climate events. The Cancun Agreements 6 coined the term of “slow onset events” in 2011. the ASALs due to an increase in their frequency and Slow onset events include rising sea levels, magnitude as well as a host of other complicating increasing temperatures, ocean acidification, factors such as high rates of population growth and glacial retreat and related impacts, salinisation, recurring conflict and violence. Coupled with the land and forest degradation, loss of biodiversity general marginalisation that border regions face as and desertification. Sudden onset events – or a result of their peripherality, climate change and extreme weather events – describe natural hazards related slow onset disasters have a wide-ranging which occur in a short period of time and which impact on livelihoods. last a brief moment. Sudden onset events include In order to better support IGAD and its Member hurricanes, windstorms, floods and mudslides. States in implementing adequate policies on The pastoralists of the IGAD region live the nexus between drought and displacement/ in environments of various and recurring migration it is important to conceptualise the links environmental, economic and sociopolitical risks. between drought, loss of livelihood and migration As a livelihood system, pastoralism has evolved in the IGAD region borderlands. It is also necessary to harness the opportunities that ASALs offer by to detail and explain the different ways in which incorporating variability in the production process the impact of drought on livelihoods intervenes (FAO, 2021b). This includes strategies such as in the decision of the affected individuals and transhumance, herd diversification, maintaining households to migrate while also considering the different herding units throughout the year, and implication of external factors such as gender combining crop and livestock production at a and age. This paper summarises this complex variety of special and temporal scales (Bollig and interaction between droughts, migration and Gobel, 1997; Swallow, 1994). Transhumance1 is displacement and the influence of climate change deployed very strategically and draws on local on decisions around livelihoods and mobility in the networks, information and risk analysis that is border areas of the IGAD region. supported by systems of governance and decision- The first section of the paper is a literature review making (African Union, 2010). for which academic, grey and other literature on Although pastoralists and agro-pastoralists are the IGAD region were consulted – the search was highly adaptive to changing environments, the also extended to “Horn of Africa” and “East Africa” current repertoire of adaptive practices is stressed given the overlaps in the nomenclature. The and becomes insufficient or unsuitable when faced review draws heavily on a few sources that have with the impacts of climate change (Ericksen et al., previouslyextensivelycoveredtheseborderregions 2011; Herrero et al., 2016). Slow onset disasters 2,3 , as well as materials from intergovernmental such as droughts, though predictable and well- organisations, non-governmental organisations understood phenomena, have a much more and other think tanks. devastating impact on borderland communities in 1 Transhumance is a form of mobile livestock husbandry in which herders move livestock regularly and repeatedly between defined seasonal pasture areas. Karamojong and Turkana herders have practiced transhumance for centuries – however, the range and direction of movement has decreased in recent years due to expansion of urban and peri-urban areas, land use change, extractives exploration and exploitation and wildlife conservation. 2 These include: World Bank. 2020. From Isolation to Integration: The Borderlands of the Horn of Africa, The World Bank, Washington DC; Eulenberger I, Feyissa D, Iyer P, Gebresenbet F, Adugna F, et al. 2018. Agenda-setting report for the Borderlands Working Group. Nairobi: Danish Demining Group-Danish Refugee Council; Foresight. 2011. Migration and Global Environmental Change: Final Project Report, The Government Office for Science, London; Rigaud K, de Sherbinin A, Jones B, Bergmann J, Clement V, et al. 2018. Groundswell: Preparing for internal climate migration, The World Bank, Washington DC, among others.” 3 One of the authors was a lead writer for the extensive review of the border regions commissioned by the Danish Demining Group in 2018. 7 The second part of this paper is a case study of the IGAD Karamoja cross-border cluster (see Figure 1) in which local pastoral and agro-pastoral communities were interviewed on the impacts of climate change, especially drought, on their livelihoods, how these changes have affected their migration decisions and which methods they have employed to build up their resilience. Finally, in the third and last section, the study will also explore how the communities see the role and impacts of governmental and non-governmental actors in building their resilience to climate change. This section will allow us to understand, through the perceptions of these communities, what they consider to be the most important areas of intervention and how to improve these actions. This section will also make use of the field study implemented in the Karamoja Cross-Border Cluster. IGAD Border Clusters 1 – Karamoja 2 – Borana 3 – Somali 4 – Dikhil 5 – Ethiopia; South Sudan Implemented by 6 – Ethiopia; Sudan 7 – Ethiopia; Sudan; Eritrea 8 – Ethiopia; Somalia Figure 1: IGAD Border Clusters source: IGAD 8  Section I Climate Change, Livelihood and Human Mobility in the IGAD Region 9 Kraal enclosures in Kotido Ecology, Economy and rights to grazing lands and the overall management of rangelands (Herrera et al., 2014). Although Livelihoods in the IGAD Region there are specific structures for the governance The IGAD region, which stretches over an area of of key resources, such as water, there are various 5.2 million square kilometres, comprises Djibouti, horizontal and vertical linkages in the community Eritrea (suspended membership), Ethiopia, Kenya, vis-à-vis the management of resources, which is Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan and Uganda. On this typical of common property regimes. vast expanse live approximately 230 million people, Rivers on the IGAD borderlands also determine the majority of whom depend on a combination communities’ subsistence and livelihood of livestock rearing and rainfed agriculture for strategies. Rivers such as the Omo, which flows their livelihoods. The border regions of IGAD are to the lower Omo valley and the Elemi Triangle, generally known for their pervasive poverty, high Wabi Shebelle and Genale Dawa in Southern degree of vulnerability, growing populations, Somalia, Blue Nile in Sudan, and Akobo in South insecurity and conflict. Compounding these issues Sudan, among others, allow for the practice of is climate change and ecological degradation, flood recession agriculture4 (WLE, n.d.) (of maize, which are critical concerns for the communities sorghum) on their banks when there is sufficient whose livelihoods are intimately linked to weather rain in the highlands. Whereas much of the patterns and access to viable land. Whereas several borderlands in the IGAD region are arid or semi- areas of the IGAD region are witnessing the arid, the transboundary region of South Omo and impact of climate change, nowhere is the threat Lake Turkana (Ethiopia-Kenya) differs significantly to livelihoods systems more pronounced than on in its ecological diversity and richness (Carr, 2017). the border regions where environmental volatility The Omo river basin has a mosaic of habitats and is pronounced, and hazards and risks concentrated vegetation types, including grasslands, wetlands, (Hammond, 2017). Events such as droughts and riverine forests and woodlands, which provide for floods can devastate communities, despite their flood recession agriculture, pasture for animals, adaptive defenses, because the coping strategies and wild plants for foraging. Lake Turkana, the may not be adequate to compete with the scale of world’s largest desert lake, derives 80-90% of its change. surface water inflow from the Omo river (Avery, Pastoralism is a highly specialised, adaptable, 2010). Fishing is a major livelihood strategy for resilient, and efficient system of production that communities living around these water bodies. produces high quality protein sources with minimal Although agriculture and fishing are practiced in resources (FAO, 2021b). This livelihood system the border areas, the overall climate and ecology depends heavily on the availability of and access is more suitable for livestock rearing, making to water and vegetation for animals. Moreover, livestock trade the backbone of the borderlands’ mobility is a key strategy in pastoral production economy. Although many individuals in border systems. Mobility is critical to forage and water communities have adopted other livelihoods, these access, and therefore animal productivity; it also tend to generate low income, making livestock ensures access to markets and income generation rearing one of the more secure, productive and (IIED, 2009). Pastoralist communities also have favorable livelihood systems (Gebresenbet and sophisticated water and land governance and Kefale, 2012; Iyer and Mosebo, 2017; Little et al., tenure systems, generally managed by elders, 2001). In addition to the sociocultural and political which are critical to the management of access 4 Flood recession agriculture uses the residual moisture of seasonally flooded lands when the floods recede. This may be practiced on the banks of rivers or seasonal lakes. 10  Banks of Lake Turkana importance of livestock, pastoral production is livestock originating in the Somali Region (Eid, a significant contributor to the economies of the 2014). The value of the livestock trade has since IGAD countries. It is estimated that livestock increased to above US $400 million in recent years accounts for the livelihood of roughly 43 million (Eid, 2014). Citing other reports, Aklilu and Catley people across the Horn of Africa. In the ASALs (2010) estimate that 60-80 percent of Somalia’s of South Sudan, Uganda, Kenya, Somalia and exports are re-exports with origins in the Somali Ethiopia, livestock-based livelihoods are carried Region of Ethiopia. Similarly, it was estimated that out by 85 percent of the population (Aklilu et al., 16 percent of the beef consumed in Nairobi was of 2013). Furthermore, in the Horn of Africa, the South-Central Somali origin (Little and Mahmoud, annual exports of livestock and products generates 2005). In Moyale, cross-border trade accounts close to 1 billion US Dollars (Catley et al., 2013). for 75 percent of the livestock traded (Pavanello, 2010). The markets in Mandera and Moyale are Despite an overall tendency by governments and supplied by the Somali and Oromia regions in other stakeholders to favor crop agriculture and Ethiopia, north-eastern Kenya and the Lower marginalise pastoralism, the livestock trade is Juba in Somalia (Pavanello, 2009). On the other the backbone of the economy in the IGAD cross- hand, camels purchased from Mandera in north- border clusters. Livestock exports to the Middle eastern Kenya and southern Somalia are trekked to East, in particular, contribute significantly to the Ethiopian Moyale. From there, traders truck them economy. In the 1990s, exports from the Somali to central Ethiopia from where they export them ports of Berbera and Bossaso were valued at US to the Middle East (Pavanello, 2010). $120 million, with about 80 percent of the traded 11 Climate Change Impacts on on nutrition and health: for example, between 2008 and 2018, it is estimated that post-disaster Livelihoods in the IGAD Region production losses amounted to an annual dietary Climate change projections in the IGAD region/the energy supply of 82 days of calorie intake per capita Greater Horn of Africa point to a faster warming per year (FAO, 2021a). In pastoral areas, declining of the region compared to the global mean, with animal health as a result of climate change effects projected changes in surface temperatures and have a direct impact also on the production of milk. precipitation levels (Osima et al., 2018). Modelling This has serious, negative implications for not only shows an increase in dry spells, a decrease in wet the animals, but also the humans who depend on spells, and a general reduction in rainfall, all of their animals for nutrition. which will likely have a negative impact on the Besides its economic impact, climate change is livelihoods of people in coastal cities, lake regions, also indirectly (or sometimes directly) responsible highlands, and ASALs of Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia, for changing social relationships between and Sudan, among other countries (Osima et al., communities along the borderlands. Ecological 2018). Although no stranger to environmental changes have also been analysed in the literature variability and adept at exploiting variability for their relationship with conflict through the for pastoral production, communities in the adverse effects on livelihoods and resources borderlands have been and are likely to continue (Barnett and Adger, 2007; Raleigh and Urdal, 2007). facing devastating losses due to drought and other Although widely believed that scarcity leads to rapid and slow onset events. conflict, research has shown that the relationship In pastoral areas, climate risk is projected to rise between these two phenomena is more complex due to increases in rainfall variability temporally as (Adano et al., 2009; van Baalen and Mobjörk, well as spatially (Herrero et al., 2016). The increased 2016). For instance, studies among pastoralist frequency of events such as drought, flooding communities in Northern Kenya show increases and extreme highs and lows of temperature will in livestock raiding both during wet years and dry have significant impact on the rangelands by years (Ember et al., 2012; Witsenburg and Adano, bringing further changes to herbage growth and 2009). The studies show that during the wet quality, changes in the composition of pastures, season, conditions such as high grass and dense and consequently nutritional stress for animals bush make it easy to raid and transport animals (Herrero et al., 2016; Thornton et al., 2009). This, in in Uganda-Kenya, whereas in the dry season, the turn, will affect overall productivity by negatively short grass allows for faster movement of cattle in affecting herd dynamics and stock density. South Sudan (Eaton, 2008; Ochan, 2007). Climate change-related factors and the growing Causality notwithstanding, resource scarcity as occurrence of disasters also modify interactions a result of climate-induced change can cause between pathogen vectors and animal hosts, conflicts to emerge. This can occur when herders leading to a rapid spread of animal diseases (FAO, expand the foraging area to include agricultural 2021a). These, in turn, have critical socioeconomic land, which may cause disruptions in harvest for consequences. As an example, it is estimated that neighboring agriculturalists; similarly, conflicts can the loss of animals and connected losses in milk occur when agriculturalists encroach rangelands. and meat in Kenya could amount to more than However, it is critical to note that resource- US $630 million by 2030 (Herrero et al., 2010). related conflicts in the IGAD region are generally Moreover, beyond the macroeconomic impact, between pastoral groups and takes the form of this production loss also has severe consequences raiding, whereas herder-farmer conflict in East 12 Africa remains scarce (Kratli and Toulmin, 2020). In Mobility and Migration in the addition, increasing conflict risk is only indirectly related to climate change and has a greater link IGAD Region to worsening livelihood conditions and loss of Mobility and migration are defining features of income. The climate-conflict link is also arbitrated life in the IGAD region’s cross-border clusters by migration, whereby the movement of herders and take the form of livelihood-related mobility, into areas with greater water and forage resources cross-border trade, irregular migration, labor can create conflict with other groups (Mobjörk, migration, and forced displacement due to conflict ND). or rapid and slow-onset environmental events. Finally, environmental degradation and resource Mobility is a principal livelihood strategy among availabilityarestronglyinfluencedbydevelopments borderland communities; its link to vulnerability around land use and access, and anti-pastoralist and resilience is evident in how mobility influences government policies play a gravely negative role in daily livelihood options and adaptation to shocks this regard. There is ample evidence of productive (Hammond, 2017). Finding sources of water and land being put to agricultural, conservation, large- pasture for animals, bringing animals to sell in scale development or other non-pastoralist use in border or terminal markets5, and accessing towns several border areas of the Greater Horn of Africa/ for various forms of informal cross-border trade IGAD. This further exacerbates herd productivity are some examples of the use and importance of particularly during prolonged droughts when mobility. valuable patches of grazing land are no longer available (Little and McPeak, 2014). The push to First, it must be stated that the influence of climate greater sedentarisation and the rapid urbanisation change on migration decisions is mediated through in pastoral areas contributes to resource scarcity. existing economic, environmental and political Moreover, the depletion of natural resources drivers at the macro, meso and micro levels and degradation of land due to overstocking and (Foresight, 2011; Rigaud et al., 2018). Influences reduced mobility undermines livelihoods and beyond the control of individuals, households increases vulnerability (Carr, 2017; Catley et al., or communities – such as demographic shifts, 2013). commodity prices, and political conflicts – are macro-level factors. Micro-level factors, on the In the IGAD region where most countries are other hand, include individual and household classified as Least Developed Countries (LDCs), characteristics such as education, health, risk these impacts will be further compounded by the perceptions, etc. Decisions to migrate in the face overall marginalisation of pastoral areas. Far from of climate change is, therefore, influenced by national centres, borderlands typically occupy a a combination of these factors as illustrated in peripheral space in national policy and priority, the drivers of migration framework (Figure 2) from the development perspective. However, developed by the Foresight report (and adapted states also have continual interest in their borders from the World Bank’s (2020) “From Isolation to primarily driven by geopolitics and the various Integration” report). extralegal activities for which borders have come to be known. 5 Final market for animals is dominated mainly by processors and large marketers for the purpose of slaughter, processing or export. 13  Figure 2: Drivers of Migration Framework The influence of environment change on drivers Environmental Exposure to hazard Personal/household characteristics Ecosystem services, Political Age, sex, education. wealth, martial including: Discrimination/persecution status, preferences, ethnicity, Micro Land productivity Governance/freedom religion, language Habitability Conflict/insecurity Food/energy/ Policy incentives Macro Direct coercion water security Migrate Spatial and/or temporal Decision variability and difference in source and destination Stay Gradual Actual Demographic Social Population size/density Population structure Intervening obstacles and facilitators Seeking education Sudden Perceived Disease prevalence Political/legal framework Family/kin obligation Cost of moving Social networks Meso Diasporic links Recruitment agencies Economic Technology Employment opportunities Income/wages/well-being Producer prices (e.g., agriculuture) Consumer prices The drivers of migration framework consider the factors that are taken into account while making a decision on mobility, rather than predicting mobility (Hammond, 2017). Desirability of potential destinations are evaluated environmentally, politically, demographically, economically and socially, and whether the advantages of moving are clear. The likelihood of a person moving decreases if the actual and potential destinations do not differ significantly on these aspects. Moreover, the individual or household’s characteristics (also known as the vulnerability context in the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework of analysis (SOAS, n.d.)) are also critical considerations in the decision to migrate. 14  A pastoralist with his livestock at a watering point in Lorengekipi, Turkana, Kenya. Mobility due to severe drought is a common of the majority that travelled over the Horn of Africa phenomenon in the IGAD region’s borders. In route, around 84% of travelled to Ethiopia and 6% 2017, for e.g., 700,000 people in Somalia, over to Djibouti (IOM, 2020). Furthermore, in 2019, 300,000 people in Ethiopia and 41,000 in Kenya more than 1.5 million people were newly displaced, became displaced due to the impact of drought on both inside and beyond national boundaries in the natural resources, livelihoods and social conditions IGAD region. Many of those compelled to migrate (IOM, 2017). The drought also triggered cross have previously been affected by extensive rainfall border movements, particularly between Somalia- decreases (IGAD, 2019). Ethiopia and Somalia-Kenya. Community Coping Mechanisms The literature consulted shows that the countries of origin for climate migrants in Kenya, Uganda, in the IGAD Region and Ethiopia are, typically, Somalia, South Sudan, Although highly specialised and efficient in and Ethiopia (Bayar and Aral, 2019). Although the working with variability and uncertainty, the IGAD majority of “climate migrants” move within the region’s pastoralists are now confronted with the borders of their country, there are also those who severe impact of climate change. cross international boundaries in search of security. In 2019, natural catastrophes in Somalia were Nevertheless, there is a growing perception responsible for 17,694 documented displacements among communities in the East and Horn of between January and December of that year (IOM, Africa of the negative climate impacts as linked 2020). These Somali citizens apparently fled owing to climate change (UNHCR, 2012). Communities to natural calamities, with statistics indicating that 15 have attributed harvest failures, drought, depleting government structures also remains fraught where water resources, and subsequent decrease of the council of elders wield greater power in the livestock herds to climate change. To address this, informal sphere than appointed leaders. governmentsandnon-governmentalorganisations have devised a range of initiatives such as Risk management among pastoralists is coming early warning systems, rainwater harvesting, under further strain as adaptive practices become community-based rangeland management, the increasingly incongruent with new stressors such introduction of drought-resistant seeds, improved as loss of land, increasing environmental changes agricultural techniques and so on (UNHCR, causing resource scarcity, and the continued 2012). However, it bears repeating that viewing disregard of borderland communities’ interests pastoralists’ reduced adaptive capacities only as a and needs. Despite these gargantuan hurdles result of climate change would be erroneous; some and as environmental variability worsens due to of the root causes of pastoralists’ vulnerability climate change, pastoralists have developed other, is engendered by marginalisation, unfavorable new innovative ways through which to respond policies, and government apathy (GebreMichael et to these conditions. These include the following al., 2011). examples: Pastoralists deal with climatic variability, The development by Ethiopia’s Afar pastoralists fluctuations in water and forage availability, and of a cut-and-carry system of collecting forage uncertain political situation through a range of from the Awash National Park. This innovation adaptive and risk management strategies. These includes collective action by community include mobility (including seasonal movements), groups that rent carts jointly, using money herd accumulation, livelihood diversification, contributed by group members, and then spreading livestock in different management units, distribute the forage within the community and maintaining networks of solidarity, among (GebreMichael et al., 2011). others (Bollig, 2006; Little et al., 2001). In addition Changing herd composition by shifting to more to these individual or household strategies, productive species as done by pastoralists pastoralist communities have‘traditional’resource in Somali, Afar and Oromia regional states governance structures that manage access to in Ethiopia. Confronted by severe droughts resources and arbitrate in cases of disputes. that were frequently and devastatingly fatal These governance systems provide members with to cattle populations, pastoralists shifted high levels of influence in decision-making as well attention to camel production, which was as enforcement. As such, community members vastly more reliable in the arid conditions and tend to perceive them as more legitimate and did not prove as costly as cattle pastoralism participatory than structures established by the (Yosef et al., 2013). nation states. These more traditional governance Livelihood diversification in the Horn of Africa, systems are however not without their flaws. which has been a necessity for borderland Whereas elders continue to have decision- pastoralist communities, both due to rising making power and feel that they have authority pressures on the pastoral system as well as a in Karamoja, some women and male youth buffer against risk (Little et al., 2001). These question this authority for its rigidity in the face of new livelihoods include small-scale mining, changing socioeconomic conditions (Carlson et al., trade, construction, small businesses, and 2012). In addition, their relationship with formal wage labor. 16  Section II Case Study - The Karamoja Cross-Border Cluster Pastoralists meeting the research team in a key grazing 17 area in Nakonyen, Karamoja, Uganda. Case Study of the Karamoja-Turkana Cross Border Area Context Despite these obstacles, pastoralism and the livestock trade have persisted in the Karamoja The Karamoja cross-border cluster refers to the cross-border cluster. Pastoralism constitutes 19%, borderlands between Uganda, South Sudan, 13%, and 8% of total GDP in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Kenya and Ethiopia, home to agro-pastoralist and Uganda, respectively (Nyariki and Amwata, 2019). pastoralist communities – commonly referred South Sudan’s livestock contribution to agricultural to as Ateker – who speak mutually intelligible GDP in 2013 amounted to about 14.5% (ICPALD, languages and share various sociocultural 2013). This critical role notwithstanding, the cluster institutions. In IGAD’s classification, it is cluster is also known for its vulnerability – for instance, one of the eight defined clusters (see Figure 1). according to the Uganda National Household This border cluster stretches from Kenya’s Lake Survey 2012/13, although the national average Turkana – the world’s largest desert lake – in the for income poverty was 19.7%, the Karamoja east to Uganda’s Karamoja Region in the west, and subregion of Uganda had a rate of 75% (UBOS, from South Sudan’s Boma plateau and Ethiopia’s 2014). Poverty indicators in Karamoja reflect a host South Omo Zone in the north to the Kenyan of challenges such as recurring droughts, cyclical highlands in the south. The dominant borderland conflict over resources, and exposure to livestock communities, part of the Ateker (or Karamojong) illnesses, among others. cluster of Nilotic languages, include Turkana, Karamojong, Jíye, Toposa, and Nyangatom. Other Climate Change in the Karamoja Cross- major communities of the wider region include Border Cluster Dasanach (Kenya-Ethiopia), Didinga (South Sudan), Tepeth and Pokot (Kenya-Uganda). According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO, 2019b), droughts, both The most viable livelihood options in this frequent and persistent, are a recurring element of cross-border cluster are pastoralism and agro- the Karamoja cluster. For instance, between 1991 pastoralism. Although there are certain areas, and 2000, the Karamoja region has witnessed seven such as Turkana County in Kenya, which is drier droughts, and additional droughts in 2001, 2002, than others, periodic rains are used throughout 2005, 2008 and 2011 (ISS, 2020). Climate change the region to grow sorghum, the most suitable is exacerbating the effects of periodic droughts crop for this type of climate. Besides livestock, by hastening desertification and degrading the the economy of the areas also includes trade in ecosystem of rangelands. The ensuing continuous agricultural produce, honey and bee products, food insecurity of pastoralist communities is gums and resins. The sociopolitical institutions aggravated by the emergence of Transboundary and patterns of conflict and cooperation between Animal Diseases (TADs) and the escalation of the region’s communities are shaped by a pastoral conflicts over natural resources within and economy and its inherent mobility practices and between nations. land access rights. This mobility, upon which pastoral production heavily depends, has been In Karamoja, climate change is apparent in a few transformed in recent years due to a combination chief ways. A recent analysis points to an increase of a changing climate, unfriendly policies and in average monthly rainfall in Karamoja over the development challenges (Levine, 2010; Mueller et last 35 years; however, this is accompanied by al., 2020). an increase in variability with unpredictable rain leading to an increase in periods of low or no 18  Case Study of the Karamoja-Turkana Cross Border Area rainfall and heavy rainfall (Chaplin et al., 2017). and pasture for animals. In addition to mobility, Concurrently, there is also evidence of rising some other adaptation strategies in the Karamoja temperatures, with an increase in the occurrence Cluster include livelihoods diversification, and duration of heat waves and reduced availability changing herd composition, selling livestock to of water (Chaplin et al., 2017). However, with acquire investments such as motorbikes, and regard to perception of climate change, Chaplin sending children for formal education (Lumborg et al. (2017) report that, in their study, nearly 2/3 et al., 2021; Opiyo et al., 2015). Although early of respondents did not perceive any changes in warning mechanisms have been established in climate or were unsure about the occurrence of some places of the border cluster, in other areas, climate change. For those who did report observing such as in South Omo, there is a perceived limited changes, they most frequently report the increase access to early warning which is said to be a barrier in the number of ‘hot days.’ On the other hand, a in adapting to climate change (Gebeyehu et al., study conducted in 2015 found that the majority 2021). of the pastoralists interviewed (99%) perceived that Karamoja’s climate had changed with high The presence of Lake Turkana, however, makes but erratic rainfall, floods, high temperatures, fishing a principal livelihood for some people, hailstorms, and early cessation of rainfall, among and fishing is a supplementary or alternative food other indicators (Egeru, 2015). Studies have found source for pastoralists although there is concern similar levels of perception of climate change in about the drying up and shrinking of Lake Turkana. Turkana (Opiyo et al., 2016). Within the past decade, the lake has receded by about 400 metres. In addition to climate effects, Findings related to climate change perceptions the lake water levels are affected by reduced have critical bearing on adaptation measures inflows from the Omo River in Ethiopia, which taken by households and individuals, where those provides about 90% of the lake’s annual inflows who perceive and observe changes may be more (Avery 2013). likely to engage in preparedness. In Chaplin et al.’s study, over three-quarters of the respondents Turkana has an arid environment marked by two reported not having made any changes to adapt rainy seasons—long akiporo rains (March–May) to the impact of climate change due to lack of and short akicheret rains (October–November). understanding. Among measures adopted were Together, these average 300–400 mm of rainfall tree planting, sale of charcoal and firewood as annually. Long rains are important for livestock a coping mechanism, and joining a credit or as they affect pasture and browse regeneration as microfinance group. Although this study did not well as the recharge rate of water sources for cattle find any specific climate adaptations, it should be (Mutua and Owade, 2017). borne in mind that Karamoja’s pastoralists use a range of risk management strategies to work with Climate shocks have led to livelihood insecurity as and exploit climatic variability. a result of rising temperatures, recurrent droughts The borderlands’ communities and their livestock and unpredictable and unreliable rainfall patterns. move inside and across borders on a regular basis, With limited water sources in Turkana, pastoralists making proficient and strategic use of changes in seek dry season grazing areas in Uganda and South land cover and resource availability to ensure water Sudan (USAID, 2011). 19 Case Study of the Karamoja-Turkana Cross Border Area A Turkana elder in Naotin, Turkana, Kenya Impact of Climate Change on Furthermore, despite high annual per capita GDP Livelihoods and Migration Patterns in growth rates registered by the Karamoja cluster countries, which in 2018 averaged 6.1 percent for the Karamoja Cluster Uganda, 6.3 percent for Kenya, and 6.8 percent Climate change, as expected, has had an impact for Ethiopia (with the exception of South Sudan, on the lives and livelihoods of agro-pastoral which averaged -11.2 percent in 2016 (World Bank, communities in the Karamoja Cluster. In the 2021)), the ASALs in these countries remained South Omo Zone of Ethiopia, this had meant chronically vulnerable to food insecurity, recurring rising temperatures and therefore greater severe droughts, increasingly unpredictable evapotranspiration, which will negatively affect rainfall regimes, and the worsening ecological water and pasture availability (Enyew and Hutjis, circumstances leading to the loss of livelihoods 2015). The combination of drought, floods, and high incidence of poverty (IGAD, 2020). resource-based conflicts and pressure on scarce Evidence shows that climate change, which has natural resources, economic and sociopolitical had a severe impact on the Karamoja cluster, marginalisation, adverse effects of climate change has disrupted pastoralist movement patterns. and incessant armed conflicts and violence has According to Young (2011), climate change has undermined the capacity of households to cope not only undermined resilience and worsened with these disturbances. 20  Case Study of the Karamoja-Turkana Cross Border Area competition for scarce resources in the Karamoja understanding of cross-border communities’ cluster, but it has also resulted in new patterns decision-making around mobility and migration, of movement and conflict. According to Catley & in addition to other adaptive strategies, to cope Scoones (2016), movement patterns differ within with rapid environmental change and ecological the cluster. Internal migration is widespread degradation remains limited. The field research among the Karamojong in Uganda’s seven districts. section of this research study will investigate these The most prevalent pastoral movement across an decision-making processes among community international boundary within the cluster is by members on the Karamoja-Turkana border areas, the Turkana of Kenya to the considerably more and the role of macro, meso and micro level factors resource-rich area of the Karamojong of Uganda. in decisions to move, migrate or stay. On a smaller scale, Ethiopian Dassenech cross the border into Kenya to reach the northern coasts of The extant literature is also generally scant on Lake Turkana. Meanwhile, during the dry season, the perceptions, adaptive behaviors, and role in the Nyangatom of Ethiopia and the Topossa of combatting climate change of women in IGAD’s South Sudan cross the disputed Ilemi boundary. borderland communities (Musau, 2021) (REF, It is therefore evident that the crippling effect 2017). Climate change, like other phenomena, has of climate change is threatening livelihoods in a disproportionate effect on women, particularly the Karamoja cluster, aggravating the shortage agro-pastoral women, who not only bear the of vital pastoral resources and requiring pastoral burden of household nutrition through crop movement outside traditional migratory corridors. agriculture and other livelihoods, but are also Drought, more than any other condition, stimulates responsible for most domestic chores. It is well the cluster inhabitants’migration to water, pasture, established that climate change influences women and food-rich locations. differently than men; in East Africa, women’s responsibilities rely heavily on rivers, livestock and Gaps in the Literature agriculture, all of which are heavily influenced by climate change (Abebe, 2014). In the Karamoja Whereas information on climate change dynamics Cluster, existing inequalities between the genders and other climatological information about the and women’s decreased agency in community Karamoja cluster abounds in the literature, studies matters may act as barriers for collective action to on influence on borderland communities and address climate change. As such, the field research their adaptive strategies and coping mechanisms will also consider questions on how climate remains scant. This is not without exceptions, change may be influencing relationships between of course, and, as demonstrated above, several the genders; how gender influences vulnerability examples of research on community perceptions to climate change; and how migration (related and adaptations in the face of climate change to climate) and gender interact in the Karamoja are cited in the sections above. A deeper Cluster. 21  Case Study of the Karamoja-Turkana Cross Border Area Field Study Rationale for Field Study As remarked above (literature review), information on cross-border communities’ decision-making on mobility and migration in the context of climate change on the Karamoja-Turkana border (in addition to other areas of the HoA) remains scant. Understanding the impact of drought and other climatological phenomena on the livelihoods and migration trends of rural communities is of urgent importance to inform policy and programming. As such, a field research study was carried out as part of this study among community members on the Karamoja-Turkana border areas. The study investigated the impact of climate change, and the role of macro, meso and micro level factors in decisions to move, migrate or stay. Research Questions The main research questions the study considers are: 1. How have slow onset climate changes, and more specifically drought, affected the livelihoods of pastoral and agro-pastoral border communities? 2. How has climate change influenced decisions on mobility and migration? 3. What coping mechanisms have these communities adopted to deal with the effects of slow onset climate change on their livelihoods? Methodology The broad methodological approach of this study is an interpretivist, qualitative inductive approach drawing inspiration from the grounded theory tradition and using a range of research instruments to explore the reasons behind the developing trends, in order to provide meaningful results and policy suggestions. The qualitative approach is ideal for the exploration of human experience (Yin, 2009). Specifically, a qualitative phenomenological research design was used for this study. The goal of phenomenology is to describe the meaning of this experience—both in terms of what was experienced and how it was experienced. This design was best suited to uncover information concerning livelihoods, resilience and migration in the context of climate change in the Karamoja region because it is an approach to research that seeks to describe the essence of a phenomenon by exploring it from the perspective of those who have experienced it (Teherani et al., 2015). Researcher conducts an interview in Loyoro, Karamoja, Uganda. 22  Case Study of the Karamoja-Turkana Cross Border Area Research Locations Data Collection Methods The research study was carried out between 3rd FGDs: A total of 11 FGDs were conducted (5 in January 2022 and 15th January 2022 in 4 districts of Karamoja and 6 in Turkana). Questions and topics Karamoja and 2 wards of Turkana County. For a full of discussion in FGDs included perception of list of research locations, see Annex 1. pastoralists about climate change and variability, the impact on livestock and crop production, and Site and Participant Sampling Procedures migration decision-making and trends. The FGDs enabled conversations between participants on A mix of purposive, snowball and convenience experiences and issues in their communities. sampling techniques were used. Purposive sampling was used to select participants for the KIIs: To collect detailed information on Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) as well as the communities’ vulnerability, migration patterns, Key Informant Interviews (KIIs) and in-depth government intervention, etc., the research team interview participants. Interviews and discussions focused on a limited number of carefully selected were conducted in Pokot, Karamojong andTurkana key informants from the research locations, languages (the latter two are mutually intelligible). totaling eight (8). Key informants comprised Locations close to the international border where a government drought management officer conditions are generally arid and semi-arid were in Lodwar, community leaders, kraal6 leaders prioritised. Community members were selected (including influential women in the communities), to capture age- and gender-related differences and development and humanitarian workers who of perceptions, experiences and opinions. The are directly involved in climate change-related sampling ensured equitable distribution of age projects in the study locations. These interviews groups in order to capture varied experiences and helped enrich the understanding of nuances practices.Through snowball sampling, participants on issues related to drought and the coping or informants with whom contact has already been mechanisms employed by pastoralists. made were requested to refer the researchers to other people in their network who could potentially In-depth interviews: To get deeper information on participate in or contribute to the study. In total issues of concern regarding pastoralism, migration 137 people participated in the study, 61 of whom and climate change, the research team carried out were women and 45 were young people (15 – 35 8 in-depth interviews. These interviews are life years of age). history interviews and considered the interviewee’s history in the location and the factors that have contributed to their livelihoods and migration- related trajectories. 6 Kraal (word of Afrikaans origin; Karamojong word: ere) refers to an enclosure for livestock within a wider household or settlement that is enclosed with thorn bush branches and other materials, typically in a circular form. Karamojong and Turkana communities typically have smaller kraals inside their more ‘permanent’ homes and larger kraals in the rangeland areas. Enforced sedentarisation and rapid urbanisation over the last couple decades have meant that the majority of the animals – what little is available in each household – is generally kept for the better part of the year on the rangelands, with various kin and non-kin responsible for their wellbeing and safety. 23 Case Study of the Karamoja-Turkana Cross Border Area Findings 1. Perceptions and Understandings of Climate Change Given their specialisation in living with uncertainty and adaptability, pastoralists in Karamoja and Turkana discussedtheirlongandvariedexperiences dealing with the vagaries of the climate. However, in some areas such as Turkana, the drought is said to have never gone away. Where in Karamoja, the dry season – punishing as it may be – continues to have a level of predictability, across the border in Turkana, seasonality has become vague with dry conditions persisting continuously. First, it is important to note that all study participants, particularly those from rural communities both in Turkana and Karamoja, are consistently aware of changing climatic conditions over the years and the telltale markers. The prolongation of dry seasons, the rising unpredictability of seasons, and the severity of the dry season were all listed as A section of study participants at Loroo sub effects of climate change. county, Karamoja, Uganda. Among these, the unpredictability of seasons was following way: If there is too much wind, it will take explained to us in the following way: away the rain… every time it rains and wind comes, it destroys the rain. Just when a rainbow appears, We grew up knowing how the seasons were you know that there will be no more rain8. arranged… when it was the month when the clouds were supposed to gather, it would happen, and Participants of this research study attributed the everyone would know that the rain is near. The worsening climatic conditions to: cyclicality – one following month, it would rain. You would know bad year followed by a good –; to a supernatural that the next season would be dry. But nowadays, force and changes brought about to the landscape. you cannot know… it can rain during the time of For some in Turkana County, however, this drought. The fruits on the acacia tree come at a time cyclicality appears to have disappeared, with the when no one is expecting them. You start to wonder dry season extending to years9. A participant in – what kind of fruit is this?7 the study said there is reduced migration because there is wide-ranging drought, and that youths The prolonged dry season destabilises planting migrate on a more permanent basis. Secondly, timelines, adversely affecting pasture and, divine intervention in climatic matters was widely subsequently, food security and animal health. acknowledged as a driving force – It is God who Someparticipantsalso expressedanunderstanding does that (climate change), not us. He is the one who of climate change processes. For instance, an gives us water, and sometimes he refuses to, because informant reported evapotranspiration in the it is only God who can do that not us10. Although 7 FGD with women, Eliye, Turkana 8 FGD with men, Kaabong, Karamoja 9 FGD with men, Loima, Turkana 10 FGD with women, Naput, Karamoja 24  Case Study of the Karamoja-Turkana Cross Border Area a widespread belief that matters of climate are 2.2 IMPACT OF DROUGHT ON LIVELIHOODS generally divined by God, some informants did list other factors driving climate change such as felling Participants of this research study echoed the of trees for survival activities (such as charcoal), key findings of previous work in terms of impact industrial development, particularly in the of climate variability and uncertainty, including extractives sector, and an increase of population in depleting water and pasture sources and resultant the area11. These findings mirror those of a recent impact on animal and human health. study in which 100% of the participants (103) A large proportion of Karamoja can be classified as noted increased unpredictability of precipitation or livestock poor. Applying the 3.3 Tropical Livestock drought when reporting impact of climate change Unit per household12, a study found that 56.5% (Abrahams, 2021). of the population from 6 selected districts were below the threshold, and, therefore, livestock poor 2. Livelihoods (Catley and Ayele, 2021). The low livestock asset 2.1. INTRODUCTION base in a vast majority of Karamoja’s households has critical repercussions on general well-being. The Karamoja region and the Turkana region First, insufficient access to animal milk has direct are among the poorest in Uganda and Kenya, and indirect impacts on the nutrition of children respectively. The Uganda Demographics and and their mothers (Stites and Mitchard, 2011). Housing Survey 2019/2020 put the number of Secondly, an over-reliance on non-pastoralist people living below poverty in Karamoja at 66%, livelihoods has been reported in Karamoja where coming only second to Acholi sub region. The livestock poor households rely on low wage jobs Turkana region, has an absolute poverty rate and trade that have minimal to no impact on of 79.4%, a term defined simply as the inability asset wealth (Iyer and Mosebo, 2017). Lastly, low for a household, family or person to meet basic livestock holdings also sometimes mean that needs including food, shelter, safe drinking water, households invest more in crop production, which education and healthcare (Muiruri, 2021). is subject to the vagaries of climate and frequently fail. These observations also apply to the Turkana Livelihoods in Turkana are primarily based on area where frequent and severe droughts have livestock production with most of the cash exacerbated poverty. Turkana households use earnings come from sales of livestock or livestock such coping mechanisms as selling firewood and products (Watson and van Binsbergen, 2008). charcoal, fishing and brewing (Waila et al., 2018). Approximatively 70% (Watson and van Binsbergen, 2008) of the area’s residents are nomadic or In the FGDs and KIIs for this study, informants semi-nomadic pastoralists. According to OXFAM, reported declining animal health, rapidly Turkana’s herds are composed of 2,619,323 goats, spreading animal diseases, low pasture availability 931,323 sheep, 89,832 cattle and 175,851 camels and quality, and decreased water sources. (Matete and Shumba, 2015). Whereas these are some of the same concerns that pastoralists in the Karamoja Cluster have Other key livelihoods in Turkana include fishing, faced for decades, the intensity of these stressors honey production, irrigated agriculture, basket- is said to have increased in conjunction with the making and handicrafts, processing and selling changing climate. As well, it is critical to note of hides and skins and small-scale business that some of the coping mechanisms in the face enterprise. 11 FGD with men, Kanamkemer, Turkana; KII, Kaabong, Karamoja 12 A measure applicable to other dryland areas of Africa. 25 Case Study of the Karamoja-Turkana Cross Border Area of these challenges (as described below) are also detrimental to the environment and the ecology and further exacerbate the negative impacts of climate change. With minimal, shortsighted and temporary support from external interventions, the impact on particularly livestock-based livelihoods has been shown to have devastating impacts on community wellbeing. With dwindling livestock holdings, lack of support to livestock- based livelihoods, and ecological degradation, pastoralists have little choice but to depend on alternative sources of livelihood that have low returns, do not contribute to productive assets, and are, ultimately, unsustainable in the long-run. Alternative livelihoods have also been severely and negatively affected by climate change – for instance, brewing, a primary source of livelihood for women in Karamoja, depends on the ability to either grow or buy sufficient stocks of sorghum and maize. Both the purchase and cultivation of Focus Group Discussion with Karamojong and these crops fluctuate rapidly and unexpectedly as Turkana men in Naput, Karamoja, Uganda. a result of climate change. 2.3. PRIMARY COPING MECHANISMS As previously noted, adaptation and coping strategies to drought in Karamoja, and Turkana is A vast majority of pastoralists who were interviewed subject to prevailing environmental, political and for the study in both Turkana and Karamoja socioeconomic factors, including marginalisation described drought conditions as becoming more (Schilling et al., 2012). Based on these typologies, permanent and no longer seasonal. In Karamoja, the various coping mechanisms of pastoralists to interviews in Loroo, Nakonyen and Naput in drought is presented in the following paragraphs. Amudat and Moroto districts, respectively, showed longer term drought seasons are expected overall, As indicated in the following contribution by an and that mobility is the core adaptation mechanism FGD participant, shifting climate patterns and (to be discussed in detail in a later section). falling livestock numbers have led the Turkana to pursue alternate means of income, such as firewood The immediate, short and long term effects of and charcoal burning, the selling of local beer, and climate change have forced pastoralists to consider fishing: We rely on charcoal so that you can sell it a number of adaptation mechanisms applied and receive something to eat. If the charcoal isn’t during drought. The strategies implemented by sold, you’ll have to stay in your current situation. pastoralists in Turkana and Karamoja to deal with Occasionally, the chief will pay a visit to the leaders the effects of drought range from environmental and inform them of the issues that we face here; as actions, social support-seeking, planning for a result, 10 sacks of maize will be sent so that we drought and consideration of alternative sources can eat that day13. of livelihood. 13 Women FGD, 07.01.2022, Loya village, Lorengekipi, Turkana 26  Case Study of the Karamoja-Turkana Cross Border Area Although few options exist outside resorting at Kanamkemer in Turkana Central: We had to to alternative forms of livelihoods, these new migrate to Kakuma, where we settled in a place economic practices have negative consequences called Pelekech. We also met other communities for both the community and the environment. who migrated to Pelekech. Their livestock had used Though selling charcoal serves a short-term up all of the grass available. We had no choice but financial need, the accompanying deforestation to return to where we came from. Moreover, since and long-term impact of prolonged drought and the locusts destroyed everything, even the trees that environmental degradation will eventually lead are here don’t produce any fruit. We have reached a to increased food insecurity through the loss of point where we scramble for what little fruit is left ecosystem services. While wild fruit are a common […]. I believe that we, along with our livestock, will source of fallback food during lean times, the suffer in this location16. increased burning of charcoal has resulted in the Turkana became an epicentre of the impact of the depletion of these trees. As recounted by one FGD locust invasion in 2020, leaving pastoralists in dire participant: When people are hungry, they will look need of forage, with locusts eating up most of the for any other area to spend their time because they region’s herbaceous resources. Locust swarms can’t just sleep under a tree and not eat. They need to were recorded multiple times in a year, severely find something to eat. Even if it is in Uganda, one impacting pastoralists’ resources. These effects will have to move to another location to find food. have been exacerbated by floods and COVID-19 It’s possible that you’ll die if you only drink water. To happening at the same time. mitigate climate change’s harshness toward us, we must forage for wild fruits14. During times of severe drought and hunger, Karamoja and Turkana pastoralists sell livestock Food aid, which is occasionally delivered to the to buy food items, or to generate money that Turkana people by the government and by some will then be used to restock when the drought NGOs, is another source of food during times ends. Some are forced to sell their most valuable of great need, as evidenced in the following animals in order to buy food that will sustain them submission in an FGD: When there is drought in this during times of hardship. There are cases where area, many people go hungry, our livestock suffers, the animals are sold cheaply so that the resulting and our health is threatened. It is only relief food income can be utilised to buy other essential food that can aid us. That is why we stated that, at the products, as stated by a study participant: When very least, we have someone who can keep an eye you wish to migrate, you won’t do it just like that. You on us. The government and NGOs are the ones that may be forced to sell one of your goats to provide save us; I’m not sure if it’s the chief who