Fossil Fuels Lecture 5 PDF

Weekly news update https://worldview.eart hdata.nasa.gov Aug. 20th, 2020 smoke trail was approximately 1,214 miles long Aerosols play a role in climate change and weather patterns Aug. 20, 2020 Sept.. 8, 2020  Fossil Fuels ME 4180 – Energy S...

Weekly news update https://worldview.eart hdata.nasa.gov Aug. 20th, 2020 smoke trail was approximately 1,214 miles long Aerosols play a role in climate change and weather patterns Aug. 20, 2020 Sept.. 8, 2020  Fossil Fuels ME 4180 – Energy Systems and Sustainability Prof. Mario Medina Department of Mechanical Engineering Agenda and Outline Objective Learn about the production, consumption, and reserves of fossil fuels Understand differences between all fossil fuel types and their environmental impact Agenda Fossil fuel types and terminology Global fossil fuel production, consumption and reserves Coal Natural gas Petroleum/oil Non-traditional fossil fuels Definition of fossil fuels Traditional fossil fuel feed stock: Natural gas Coal Oil/petroleum Non-traditional or unconventional fossil fuel feed stocks Oil sands and shale Shale gas Methane hydrates Some material in this presentation was graciously shared by Professors Ray DeYoung and Thomas Princen, SES, UM. Fossil fuel nomenclature Soft Coal Lower energy content Coal Hard Coal Higher energy content Conventional Sweet light crude oil Oil Unconventional Heavy Oil –thick & tarry, difficult to extract Tar Sands – bitumen (can be processed into synthetic crude oil) (Petroleum) [low Oil Shale – kerogen (can be converted into shale oil) permeability] Tight Oil – (e.g. Bakken oil reserve) now often commonly called “Shale Oil” Natural gas can be extracted from geologic formations. Conventional Contains other hydrocarbons (ethane, propane, butane, pentane) and non- hydrocarbons (nitrogen, hydrogen sulphide, carbon dioxiode) Unconventional Tight Sands: Compacted so tightly that natural gas cannot flow naturally. [low Shale Gas: Dense mud-like source rock, natural gas cannot flow naturally. permeability] Coal Bed Methane: Methane trapped in coal deposits. Natural Gas No commercial production yet, but resource base estimated as large as all other fossil fuels combined. Huge greenhouse gas emission risk! Composition is methane in ice lattice (46 water molecules surrounding up to 8 Methane methane molecules) Hydrates Formed in cold (50 years of global production needs Global natural gas rankings U.S is largest natural gas 35,000 producer and consumer Production (2019) Consumption (2019) Sound familiar? 30,000 Natural Gas (Billion cubic feet) 25,000 As of 2019, U.S is net 20,000 exporter of natural gas 15,000 10,000 Top ten producers and 5,000 consumers 0 https://www.eia.gov/beta/international/ Global natural gas reserves by country Natural gas reserves are predominantly located in Russia and the Middle East Often, oil and natural gas reserves are co- located https://www.eia.gov/beta/international/ Global natural gas R/P by region The Middle East BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2019 dominates proven natural gas reserves Natural gas reserves provide >50 years of global production needs Global coal rankings China dominates coal production and 4,500,000 Production (2020) Consumption (2020) consumption 4,000,000 3,500,000 Mostly deep shaft Coal (thousand short tons) 3,000,000 mining 2,500,000 2,000,000 Australia exports coal 1,500,000 to Asia (Japan, China, 1,000,000 India, South Korea) 500,000 0 https://www.eia.gov/beta/international/ Global coal R/P by region North America has BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2019 most proven coal reserves Coal reserves can provide >100 years of global coal production needs Coal reserves are not co-located with oil and natural gas U.S. coal use What is coal? Coal is a complex hydrocarbon structure with trace species integrated into the structure Model proposed by Ladner for a vitrinite with 82% carbon, representative of a high volatile bituminous coal (from S. Niksa and A. R. Kerstein, Energy & Fuels 1991, 5, 647-665). Types of coal by U.S region Coal varies by quality, carbon content, and heating value Generally, anthracite is the best and lignite is the worst Interactive map (USGS) https://eerscmap.usgs.gov/n crds2/ Location details, estimated coal rank, stratigraphic information (lithology, thickness, formation, bed, and subzone) United States Geological Survey (USGS) https://www.usgs.gov/media/images/usgs-coalfields-conterminous-united-states Types of coal Coal is classified based on heating value and carbon content (rank) Volatile organics (trapped gasses) make up the rest of coal Coals are also classified by grade (based on ash content, sulfur content, chemical composition etc.) Coal grade is independent of coal rank Type Carbon Content Heating Value (BTU/lbm) Anthracite (high rank) 86-98% 13,500 – 15,600 Bituminous (medium) 65-86% 11,500 – 15,600 Sub-bituminous (low) 60-65% 8,300 – 11,500 Lignite (low) 55-65% 5,000 – 8,300 Data sources: https://www.uky.edu/KGS/coal/coal-rank.php, Kentucky Geological Survey Types of coal Proximate analysis, % weight Typical compositions and heating values: Ultimate analysis (daf, % wt) Ash yield (inorganic, non- bituminous lignite wood combustible, SiO2) H 5 5 6 Fixed carbon (non-volatile) C 78 68 50 Moisture S 2 1 0.1 N 2 1 0.1 Volatile matter O 13 25 44 Higher heating value Ultimate analysis, % weight (Btu/lb) 14,000 10,000 8,700 Total carbon (volatile organics) Proximate + ultimate analysis (%wt) Hydrogen bituminous sub bituminous H 5 3.3 Nitrogen C 67.0 48.2 Oxygen (determined w/ calc.) S 1.5 0.4 Sulfur N 1.5 0.7 O 8.7 11.9 ash 9.8 5.3 moisture 6.7 30.2 Higher heating value (kJ/kg) 28,400 19,400 Data sources: https://www.uky.edu/KGS/coal/coal-rank.php, Kentucky Geological Survey Coal supplies the electricity sector Coal has historically been the dominant energy carrier used for generating electric power (until 1960’s) In 2011, powered 45% of electricity There are huge loses associated with the stationary power sector ~70-80% Source : U.S. DOE., EIA Coal supplies the electricity sector In terms of energy production, natural gas has already exceeded coal In 2016, coal powered 35% of electricity In 2020, only 22% Why? Source : U.S. DOE EIA Comparing with petroleum-based fuels How much air is required for complete C5.6H5S0.047N0.11O0.54 + Ash0.16+ 0.37 (H2O) combustion of bituminous coal? Bituminous (% wt.) MW (g/mol) ni(moles) H 5 1 5 C 67 12 5.6 S 1.5 32 0.047 N 1.5 14 0.11 O 8.7 16 0.54 ash 9.8 60 0.16 moisture 6.7 18 0.37 HHV (kJ/kg) 28,400 Total = ζ= 11.8 Comparing with petroleum-based fuels Ex. 2 If the global reaction for coal with air is shown below, what is the mole fraction of fuel in reactants? C5.6H5S0.047N0.11O0.54 + Ash0.16 + 0.37H2O + z (O2+3.76N2)  a CO2 + b H2O + c N2 Example: Coal use in power sector Ex. 1 A power plant is rated for 500 MW with a thermal efficiency 36% and operates using bituminous coal. The PP operates 65% of the time for any given year a) how much coal is burned in one year? b) How much ash and sulfur is generated in one year? Example: Impact of coal use in the power sector Assuming all S is converted to SO2 we can estimate the SO2 produced too. We really need chemical equilibrium to determine trace exhaust gas species, but we can calculate an upper limit determined by atom balance 1 mol S 1 mol SO2 MWS [g/mol] = 32 MWSO2 [g/mol] = 64 2 to 1 ratio 1.5×107 kg of S yields 3.0×107 kg of SO2 1×109 kg coal  3.0×107 kg SO2 annually Some food for thought The total annual US coal power capacity is ~236 GW (in 2019) That is about 23% of the total power generation in US (compared with 45% in 2010) 90% of these power plants are over 30 years old (mostly built between 1950 – 1990) Coal-fired capacity is likely to be retired in the next 10 years Nuclear is expected to retire more plants in the same time period Comparing energy content © Wooldridge, University of Michigan U.S natural gas use What is natural gas? Natural gas is a mixture of gaseous hydrocarbons Primarily methane (CH4) Some ethane, propane, butane and pentane Trace levels of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, hydrogen sulfide Pre-2000’s, most natural gas was “flared” Difficult to collect at the time and we were not interested Still see flares in many “associated” fields and at refineries Various sources Natural gas reservoir Oil reservoir Coal-bed methane Shale gas / tight sand Methane hydrates Categories of natural gas Natural gas is designated by geologic formation: conventional associated, conventional non- associated and tight sand or shale gas Shale gas is generally found in deeper reserves than conventional NG Shale gas is extracted using hydraulic fracturing methods; fracking Location of shale gas reserves Number of deep gas wells Penn State, MCOR, https://marcellus.psu.edu /resources/maps- graphics-and-videos/ Natural gas production In 2009, U.S DoE’s NETL EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2017 estimated the Marcellus shale’s original gas-in place is approx. 1,500 trillion cubic feet (tcf) EIA estimates that 77.2 tcf are considered proven reserves in 2015 or 5% of total! U.S oil use Petroleum flow chart Large portion of oil goes to transportation sector, ~70% Substantial amount of refine fuel exports Petroleum imports and exports EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2020 Increase in oil production Tight oil production increased substantially North Dakota, Montana, and Texas Trends of U.S petroleum imports J. Eberhardt, DEER 2003 Trends of U.S petroleum imports 2007 19 1,888 1,346 5,064 Angola 1,224 484 1,408 1,148 1,084 1,447 2007, Vol 1 J. Eberhardt, DEER 2003 Trends of U.S petroleum imports 2011 25 2,178 1,400 Angola 5,658 929 459 1,102 2011,Vol Vol11 868 767 1,186 2011, J. Eberhardt, DEER 2003 Trends of U.S petroleum imports 2016 38 2,845 -1050 8,857 Angola 929 424 -211 721 226 1,102 2016, Vol 1 J. Eberhardt, DEER 2003  What is OPEC? Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries Manages oil production and prices Comprise of 72% proved reserves, 42% of world production, 9% of world consumption, and 43% of US imports There are some large exporting countries are not OPEC members: #2 Russia #9 Norway #10 Canada Sources: AFP, IEA, OPEC. BP. Statistical Review of World Energy 2014. (June 2014); EIA. US Imports by Country of Origin. (June 2013) The discovery/production gap Will we “run Ghawar out” of oil? (Saudi Arabia) Burgan Conventional crude oil (Kuwait) Prudhoe (Alaska) Cantarell (Mexico) New North Sea discoveries Kashagan (Kazakhstan) Red bar is Statoil peaked in discovery in the Arctic, March 1964 and have 2012 Not a cliff by a declined ever steady decline since Source: Campbell, C. J. (2010) The Post-Peak World. Institute for Policy Research & Development: London, UK Example Ex. 1 You are considering purchasing a diesel backup generator for your home, given the increased prevalence of power outages from extreme weather events. You currently pay $0.231/kWh for grid electricity, and the cost of diesel fuel is $4.38/gallon. The density of diesel is 840 kg/m3 and heating value of 43,000 kJ/kg. You find a generator rated for 10 kW with an efficiency of 31%, and a capital cost of $4,000. What is the rate of fuel consumption when the generator is operating at its rated capacity? If you operate the generator for four hours per day, how much money will you spend on fuel after one week? If the generator has an operating lifetime 10,000 hours, what is the price per kilowatt-hour of electricity generated, considering the total capital and fuel costs? Hint: efficiency is defined as (rated power out of the engine)/(rate of heat transfer from fuel into the engine) Non-traditional fossil fuels Low hanging fruit Deep water oil Demand for oil is driving offshore drilling and recovery of unconventional fossil fuels Shell Oil’s Kulluk oil derrick ran aground on the coast of Alaska, while preparing to drill very near the arctic circle https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/e nergy/a7938/everything-you-need-to-know- about-shell-oil-and-arctic-offshore-drilling-in- alaska-10720112/ Popular Mechanics, 2013 Polar oil Oil sand and shale unconventional oil, EROEI between 2.9 and 8.1*,** Oil sand –petroleum crude soaked sand Utah has ~32 billion barrels equivalent in oil sands Another 52 billion located in US (Alaska, Texas California, Tennessee…) Oil shale – mineable ore (rock) rich in organics, i.e. hydrocarbons, specifically kerogen USA has 2.1 trillion barrels equivalent in oil shale + +  + Most of US reserves located in the Rocky mountains Toxic (Utah, Wyoming, Montana; Heat Tar sands Water Oil in close proximity the sludge national parks, Tetons, Yellowstone, etc.)  Source: David Gard (2010) Michigan Environmental Council, www.environmentalcouncil.org * Robert Rapier (2012) Consumer Energy Report, www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=rkMEiV-nNjU ** more on EROEI later Canadian oil sands World’s largest single hydrocarbon resource 1.7 trillion barrels of proven oil reserves (2015) “Recoverable” reserves are 178 billion barrels Global demand for petroleum is ~165 quad btu = 170 ×1015 btu (2020) Barrel of oil = 5.8×106 btu The Canadian oil sands alone could meet the GLOBAL demand for oil for over 60 years! Data Source: Canada’s Oil Sands and Heavy Oil, Petroleum Communication Foundation, April 2002 (originally from Alberta Oil Sands Technology Research Authority) EROEI EROEI = Energy return on energy invested EROEI = Eout/Ein maximum energy content of the resource EROEI = energy invested to extract the commodity or resource Comparing EROEI for oil sources Liquids (crude, tar, shale, biofuels) US 100 Saudi 100:1 Global crude (avg) Ultra deep water 80 Shale oil Tar sands (Bitumen) Ethanol (sugarcane) Easiest to 60 Ethanol (switch grass) recover, Ethanol (corn) EROEI cheapest to Biodiesel produce, most 40 accessible 30:1 20 11:1 Minimum EROEI required to maintain society = ~5:1 to 12:1 8:1 0 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 Data: Cleveland, Boston Univ. (2010), Gard, MEC (2010, 2013), Murphy & Hall, Ann. N.Y. Acad. Sci (2010) & RiskMetrics Group for CERES (2010) Hall, Balogh & Murphy (2009). What is the minimum EROEI that a sustainable society must have? Energies, 2, 25-47 Hall (2012). Energy return on investment. In Butler et al. [Eds.] The Energy Reader. (pp. 62-68) Sausalito, CA Watershed Media Net energy cliff Ein Eout Deteriorating EROEI  Adapted from: David Gard (UM 2001) Michigan Environmental Council, www.environmentalcouncil.org Methane hydrates Located off eastern coast of U.S. 21 quadrillion m3 = 3000 times the proven natural gas reserves = 56 trillion barrels of oil equivalent The methane hydrate reserves could meet the GLOBAL demand for oil for over 1500 years! The methane hydrate reserves could meet the GLOBAL demand for ALL energy for over 300 years! Fossil fuel carbon intensity Accessing the wealth of non-traditional fossil fuels for energy use will release over 100 times the carbon loading into the environment compared to ALL the oil reserves. After Dr. David L. Greene, Corporate Fellow, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, “Transportation Energy Policy Issues for the 21st Century,” BES Workshop on Basic Research Needs for Clean and Efficient Combustion of 21st Century Transportation Fuels, October 30, 2006. Additional Information U.S coal flow chart 90% 84% Coal-fired power plants What would you do? Your coal-fired power plants are making less and less profit due to the competition with cleaner, cheap natural gas and cleaner renewables. You want to retire some of your plants to save from having to re- invest and lose more profit. You have plants with low and high efficiency and plants with low and high capacity. Which plant would you retire first and why? Coal-fired power plants CO2 Emission Retired coal Reduction Year (in GW) (in millions of 2015 15* tons) 2018 14 261 2019 8 511 328 Small, old and inefficient coal plants were the first to be retired. Now larger plants are being retired. Importantly, climate policy is not closing these plants. The plants are not cost competitive. *5% of the U.S. coal power fleet Scientific American and American Energy Society September 2019: In 2015, the most inefficient coal-plants closed; in 2019, it has been the biggest plants, like the Navajo Generating Station in Arizona, or the Bruce Mansfield coal-fired power plant in Pennsylvania.) Global reserves and R/P progression 600 160 [Billion tonnes of Oil Equivalent] Reserves-to-Production (R/P) Ratio [Years] 140 World Proved Reserves 500 113 458 120 400 100 300 80 53 55 23 60 200 207 167 40 100 20 0 0 Coal 1993 2003 2013 - Oil 1993 2003 2013 - Natural Gas 2003 2013 1993 Source: BP. Statistical Review of World Energy 2014. (June 2014) Coal Oil Tar Sands Natural Gas Coal R/P Oil R/P Natural Gas R/P Environmental issues for fossil fuels All energy resources Upstream Midstream Downstream have impacts Strip Mining/Mountain Top Coal Ash Removal Railroads & Trucks: Energy & Air CO2, NOx, SOx, PM, Acid Habitat Destruction Pollution Coal Rain Water Pollution Water Use & Disposal Water Use & Disposal Coal Preparation Wastes Mercury, Heavy Metals Fossil fuels produce carbon dioxide* Water Use Methane Emissions Drilling Spills – Mud or Oil Tanker Accidents Gas Station Emissions and Abandoned Wells Pipeline Spills Fuel Leaks Oil Hydraulic Fracturing Concerns Refinery Accidents Fire Hazard Water Use & Disposal Issues with Water Use CO2, NOx, SOx, PM Methane Emissions extraction Drilling Spills - Mud Abandoned Wells Pipeline Leakage Compressor Station Leaks Natural Gas Hydraulic Fracturing Concerns Water Use & Disposal Pipeline Accidents & Leaks Fire Hazard CO2, NOx (upstream), Methane Emissions transportation and refining (midstream) Energy & carbon intensive Same Concerns as Strip Mining refining Energy Use Tar Sands and delivery/end use Pipeline Spills Like Oil Water Use & Disposal Water Use Habitat Degradation (downstream) Habitat Encroachment Future of petroleum economy OPEC = The organization of the 39% of our oil came from OPEC countries (2011) OPEC is not a political entity; rather it is financially petroleum exporting motivated Peaking in non-OPEC production predicted to occur in the countries: current immediate future (next 10-30 years). Will OPEC fill the gap? consists of Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Venezuela