Lecture 12: Nigeria PDF

**Lecture 12: Nigeria** A graph showing the time line Description automatically generated Democracy since 1999 (4^th^ republic), before that there have been several republics and coups. **Culture and nation** **A political map**![A map of the country Description automatically generated](media/im...

**Lecture 12: Nigeria** A graph showing the time line Description automatically generated Democracy since 1999 (4^th^ republic), before that there have been several republics and coups. **Culture and nation** **A political map** Looked a lot at the US constitution Nigeria having several notions of US federalism (symmetric f.ex.) and several similar policies. Only 3 states in the beginning 36 due to so much diversity where all ethnic groups needed to be convinced that the different groups would receive equal amounts of money. By creating more states they are trying to maintain the peace as each group have their designated pot of money. The six zones are not constitutional, but have been put in place to similarities, esp. ethnic similarities. The pink one is weird but was strategic in order to get the Igbo dominated part away from the pink part = divide and rule politics to keep Nigeria together. **The Nigerian nation?** A blue background with white text Description automatically generated Three representatives of the three main ethnic groups. Even before Nigeria became independent, the different leaders of the different ethnic groups did not have a lot of faith in a connected state. The name of Nigeria was invented by a British journalist, nothing that people decided themselves. However, they still stuck with the name. **Ethnic diversity** The country has not disintegrated against all odds. Some would say Nigeria have about 100 ethnic groups, others 250 or 500. The practice of putting people into ethnic brackets is controversial as it can be seen as a colonial practice, and something that further splits the people. However, other people, esp. from the countries at hand, say that it is something that they live with every day and still remember, thus it isn't that bad. Hausa-Fulani in the north, Igbo in the South-East, and Yoruba in the South-West are the biggest. A map of nigeria with different colors Description automatically generated There are also other maps which include different, and more, ethnic groups. **Religious diversity** Arab Muslim influence from the north and Christian missionaries came from the south the religious line in Nigeria. This also overlaps with economic cleavages = north is poorer than the south. Yorubas being mixed between Muslims and Christians lead to some arguing that this isn't that salient of a cleavage, however, there are still a lot of conflicts. Sharia law has also been implemented some places as an economic and judicial hope for their areas, however, there is still a lot of corruption and problems. People are still not feeling like they get their justice. **Horizontal inequalitites**A table with numbers and symbols Description automatically generated Mostly along north-south line, but also along religious lines. Kanuri is an ethnic group that feel especially marginalised. South-West = cocoa and South-East = palm oil better economy. Substantial horizontal inequalities. **Historical developments** **Constructing Nigeria** - It is a construction by the British - 1861: Started with the Treaty of Cession -- the traditional rule of Lagos island gave up rule to the British (signed under pressure by war ships) - They established two protectorates (South and North) - 1918: The husband of the journalist giving Nigeria its name, amalgamated the Northern and Southern Protectorates due to efficiency - This is the guy: Governor Lugard - This brought a lot of different people together (different ethnic groups) = some conflict **Colonial rule** British were known for indirect rule: - Ruling through "legitimate" (reasons of efficiency: this local group also ruled some other groups sometimes, the Kanuri f.ex. was ruled by the Hausa-Fulani) traditional rulers in place ("you keep doing what you did, but I get to keep the taxes") - Revenue collection and judicial aspects - Local customary law remains - Divide and rule French were known for direct rule: - French laws and customs - (Generally) not appointed based on customary authority - Centralized - Ideology of assimilation - "Citoyens et sujets" = whites and black indigenous population (no hierarchies between the black populations) **Resistance** Resistance is not cross-cutting = no national movement. Early political parties were mostly in the South and culturally based, as the British prohibited getting people to join together on other terms. Only cultural associations were allowed (used for other things as well, f.ex. political parties).The North did not have a political party for a long time as they did not resist the British in the same way, because they feared the South. Also if the British put in place a Westminster type of parliamentary state when they were leaving, they were scared that the Southern parts would dominate. Early party formation was still based around ethnic cleavage. **Independence** As a federal state recognized tensions between groups. Thus federal groups in order to protect the groups from each other. No state party would rule all the areas. This meant that the state had their own political and economic developments and different political leanings (South = more democratically leaning but elitist, North = protecting Hausa-Fulani emirate). There were originally 3 subnational units (+1 in 1964). **1959 General Election** Even though it was a federal (unlike the UK) it shared similarities such as the Westminster-Whitehall parliamentary style among other things. However, Duverger's law doesn't hold here (mostly hold steady in homogeneous European societies) as there were several parties coming to power due to the different ethnic groups (the three most dominant ones) getting votes from their own. The Northern party didn't even run in the other regions. **Collapse of the 1^st^ Republic** "Major party newspapers and political leaders never failed to keep the local elites and candidates amply supplied with ethnic accusations and suspicions, however hysterical or malicious. The Action Group would ban Islam in the North. The NPC would force it upon the South. The NCNC would stack the whole bureaucracy with Igbos." (Diamond, 1983, p.469) Westminster system: SMDs but not 2-party system due to divisions between groups. There was such a fragile coalition North and South-East. This was also connected with religion, as South feared the pushing of a Muslim agenda, and vice versa. Some focal points were: - Western crisis 1962: In the West, the Yrouba group had a crisis between two party leaders state gov. not being able to rule federal gov. intervened and took a little bit of power (central gov. was the Northeners) - Census of 1964: Still no census in Nigeria. The numbers that each territories sent into the governments were inflated who is lying the most about their population this exercise was cancelled as it was unreliable There was also a lot of corruption and repression. Every state was massivly corrupt and repressed the people. **Coup and counter-coup** January 1966: Igbo majors -- led to the death of a lot of important leaders of the North: - Ahamadu Bello - Tafawa Balewa - Akintola There were northern pogroms Igbo's due to this. The highest ranking military leader was also Igbo so many saw it as the Igbos were taking over which was weird as it was a "unitary state". Coup failed, but there was a Northern counter-coup. Military regime Ironsi **Biafra civil war** The CW lasted from 1967-1970. A part of Nigeria declared themselves independent. But there were competeing narratives for this: Discrimination of the people in that region vs. how they actually had just discovered oil and wanted to keep it for themselves. The idea of a return to federalism was to break the power of the South-East. No victor and no vanquished in this CW. **Republics and Military regimes** 1st republic: - 1960-1966 - Yakubu Gowon - Murtala Mohammed - Olusegun Obasanjo 2nd republic: - 1979-1983 - Muhammadu Buhari (later president of Nigeria) military regime - Ibrahim Babangida 3rd republic - 1993 - Sani Abacha mystireously found dead in 1998 (related to a coup) - Abubakar Abdulsalami 4th republic: - 1999 **Corruption to keep the peace** A graph showing the price of goods Description automatically generated Oil exports have become more and more important for Nigeria's economy. **But ethnic cleavages remain** No one is happy. Massob organisation in the South East for Independence as well as an Yoruba group wanting independence. You also have farmer-hearded conflicts in the Middle-belt and Boko Haram in the North. **Democracy cleavage**  Cleavage between the ones who want democracy and those who still benefit from not having one. In 1999 many people had hope for democracy in Nigeria, but then even two years later you see a stark difference. **State structures** **Power-sharing in Nigeria** Formal rules constitutional/electoral engineering to not have the same outcomes as prior. This is a domestic initiative. The 4^th^ republic uses parts of the constitution from the 2^nd^ republic. US-inspired: - Presidential - Federal - Supreme court to protect the constitution - SMD: FPTP There is also an ethnic party ban in the constitution to avoid furthering the ethnic divisions. You cannot use ethnic or religious symbols, and they need to have headquarters in different areas of the country. Still see a lot of ethnic relations and tensions. **The President** The president is the head of state and head of government. There is a presidential veto (overruled by 2/3^rd^ in both chambers). He is elected for 4-year terms, but with a max of 2 terms. The president rules by executive bills and executive orders (decrees). One of the major criticism s of Buhari was that he was returning to military dictatorship by ruling a lot by decree. There is an impeachment procedure, 2/3 in most stages. **Election President** Conditions: - He has the highest number of votes cast at the election - He has no less than one-quarter of the votes cast at the election, each of at least 2/3 of all the States in the Federation and the federal Capital Territory, Abuja It is a direct election but has liberal democratic notion ( US, Brazil) to make sure that the different states are more or less equally represented. North South as well as regional divides are important, so most running mates are from different areas + different religions. **2023 presidential election**A map of the state of nigeria Description automatically generated **Parliament: National Assembly** Bicameral: - House of Representatives: 360 members - Senate: 109 members - Slight Northern majority (in the senate as well, due to a slightly higher number of Northern states, this is accounted for by f.ex. the senate president rotating between North and South) Legislation needs to be passed by both Chambers (liberal democratic notion with protection of the state and protection of demographic majority. **Parliamentary elections** SMD/FPTP system. The House is population-based, and the Senate is 3 per state + 1 from the FCT. The PDP (biggest party after 1999) has over time lost (esp. 2015). Esp. with the emergence of the All-Progressive Congress and people leaving the PDP due to internal conflicts. V-Dem increases a bit in 2015 due to turn-over of power but declines right after because fundamentally not much has changed (also with Buhari ruling by decree).  **Assertive and corrupt parliament** Nigeria is based on bargaining politics. Those who have best access to resources (contracts, committees, etc.) have a lot of power f.ex. in parliament (not like the Duma where Putin owns you). **Supreme court** Appointed by the President on the recommendation of the National Judicial Council and subject to confirmation by the Senate Presidential bias? Hard to say **Federalism** There have become more states over time as more and more groups have clamoured for their own states. The constitution states: - 36 states - 774 local government areas (LGAs) A change in this system can only happen with 2/3^rd^ majority in each chamber of the NASS and 2/3^rd^ majority in the State Houses by majority. **Revenue allocation** Contentious which leads to Horizontal inequalities. It is a political negotiation on who gets what. A screenshot of a graph Description automatically generated **Gubernatorial coattails** Large share revenue to Federal Government so peaople say it is dominated by the central government. But the states get a lot of money to their account, however, there are dominant State Governors who are often not really accountable to their people and keep money for themselves. No revenue, no accountability? LGAs are deprived of financial autonomy. The President doesn't own them but the Governors does. This gives a lot of power to sub-national units, as the President needs the support of the governors. 'Governors control the political structures down to the wards. When you go to primaries, the governor is likely to dominate the process and you need his support' (MP B, PDP, Abuja, November - December 2017). (Demarest, 2022).  **Parties and governments** **From one-party dominance to turnover** A graph with black dots and numbers Description automatically generated **People's Democratic Party (PDP)** PDP was founded in 1998. It is a multi-ethnic/ethnic congress party. The former dictator, Obasanjo tried to become the leader and president and promised economic prosperity, but there was a Yoruba deficit (his own people). **PDP demise** PDP would eventually lose support electoral violence. Coming up to 2015 there are also severe failures of PDP due to the Boko Haram failure. Good Luck Jonathan also tried to run for president again after he took over a term from someone that died. Northerners found this to be breaking the inter-elite bargain of rotational presidency APC formation. **All progressive Congress** It was founded in 2013 out of the Action Congress, Congress for Progressive Change and PDP defectors. It was a North + South-West alliance wanting Muhammadu Buhari as president. Ahmed Bola Tinubu also supported it thinking ' It's my turn' after Buhari would be done. **Labour Party** The Labour party was founded in 2002 and has a South-East following. New success of Peter Obi: - Clean government - Anti-corruption - Youth following - Igbo president? (no Igbo president since 1999 which could explain his success) **\ ** **Back to tripolarity?**  A lot of support for Obi in the South, which is Igbo dominated, while APC dominated many other areas. The rotational agreements of presidents have been stopped tripolarity. **Unity in diversity?** Still unity and diversity and Nigeria persist with multi-ethnic coalitions. This is f.ex. due to the ethnic party ban, electoral engineering, federal character, and corruption and clientelism. **Federal character principle** It is another way to try to ensure stability. It is a constitutional law that states: there can be "'no predominance of persons from a few states or from a few ethnic or other sectional groups' in the federal government and its agencies." This has come out of a fear of Southern dominance due to intellectual dominance. Each government agency/minister has 2.5-3% population from their state. However, still inequality in the institutions of the government by people from the south due to education. A graph showing the growth of the company Description automatically generated with medium confidence Another part of the principle is to have equitable distribution of socio-economic amenities, but this is subjective realitites and elite discourse. The problem is that they have said that they will make a long list of what state deserves to get and actually gets what, but it hasn't really been made = no objective data elites make statements against the federal government saying "we don't have anything here". F.ex. seen in South-East-Okorocha. **Elite clientelism and cooptation** PDP and ANC are alliances that are kept alive by sharing elite government positions, contracts, inflated contracts, contracts that are never computed, etc. elites taking a large share when building stuff, creating stuff, etc. The lawmakers then take a large share for themselves and a large share for their Godfather, and only a part to the actual thing it's supposed to be going to (f.ex. to a road). The "Godfather" is a Nigerian term where he is the supporter of the person in power the Godfather getting a large share of each sum going through the lawmaker.  **Democratizing primaries?** Godfathers sponsor candidates (similar to oligarchs in Russia under Yeltsin) with theft from state institutions. Even in primaries, it's a game in which rich political elites spend money to make sure that their preferred candidate gets the tickets. The candidate is then beholden to their "Godfather". **The anti-corruption ploy?** Try to reign in corruption to use corruption to sanction others and get rid of political enemies. Buhari tried to do it before elections by changing the notes of the country abruptly before elections and that these were the only valid notes. This is bad for the other candidates as they have gathered together a shit-ton of cash to give out to their constituents (= vote-buying). Quid-pro-quo = something for something. Anti-corruption policies are sometimes more to gain votes than to actually counter corruption. **Cooptation non-state actors** Cooptation of elites as well as non-state actors, as NSAs can prove to be a threat to the regime as they are able to mobilize large groups of people needing to bring them on their side. One of these cooptation "victims" are labour unions due to their strong mobilization power (democratic transition). One labour union is Occupy Nigeria protest against higher fuel prices. Since this mobilization power was shown, the regimes coopted them into the state. However, two things can happen = Cooptation (party chairman) vs threat (arrest) ("we can get rid of you"). The new chairman of a labour union has been arrested, but it seems more to be a threat that something can happen more than an actual prosecution. Also see the (National Union of Road Transport Workers) NURWT: They are paid by elites, and they hang in this system as their livelihood is dependent on these elites. They are important as they f.ex. employ motor park touts = poor people that get work These motor park touts are also sometime hired to perpetrate electoral violence. Violent uprising Niger Delta and pipeline damage. Major oil companies used massive resources to exploit areas and people (f.ex. Shell) a lot of pollution. It started in the 1990s, that there has been increasing protest against this exploitation of oil. Especially in the areas of indigenous people who then feel exploited by the regime. Since the protests have become more violent, militant groups have been attacking state and oil infrastructure. A solution of cooptation two ways: 1. Derivation principle: Whatever resource that come from oil, 13% comes directly to the communities, never going to the federal account. People are however, still starving as 13% derivation = 87% deprivation 2. Presidential amnesty program: If you are a rebel, we will pardon you and pay your tuition in US or Europe if you lay your arms down Derivation principle: "13% derivation means 87% deprivation! The wealth comes from you, it is taken from you, and then they give you 13% back as if you have been done a favor." (MP South/PDP) Neverending presidential amnesty programme **Repression and human rights abuses** If the other things fails, then there is still repression and human rights abuses. Some protests are ignored and accepted, while other are violently put down. Another problem is Boko Haram where they were only a small group at the start state deciding to just use mass forces to use violent tactics of repression in those few areas where Boko Haram were people becoming more pro-Boko Haram it grows. **Voters and clientelism** Same elements as in other cases (Brazil and SA, also Russia). Handing out money and using programs to encourage people to vote for them. These programmatic policies are often implemented in clientelist ways. They often also use developmental policies to get regions to vote for them. **Fuel subsidy politics** A screenshot of a graph Description automatically generated Programmatic policies that cannot be implemented in a clientelist way as the subsidy is taken away at the pump. Many argue however, that this mostly helps the rich people say to drop the fuel subsidy and return money to poor people instead. However, then people are afraid and suspicious that this money only will go to certain indigenous groups.