Design Thinking PDF

B-1B Lancer assigned to 28th Bomb Wing, Ellsworth Air Force Base, South Dakota, undergoes preflight maintenance at Andersen Air Force Base, Guam, September 25, 2020, while participating in exercise Valiant Shield (U.S. Air Force/Nicolas Z. Erwin) Design Thinking By Daniel E. Rauch and Matthew Tacke...

B-1B Lancer assigned to 28th Bomb Wing, Ellsworth Air Force Base, South Dakota, undergoes preflight maintenance at Andersen Air Force Base, Guam, September 25, 2020, while participating in exercise Valiant Shield (U.S. Air Force/Nicolas Z. Erwin) Design Thinking By Daniel E. Rauch and Matthew Tackett he COVID-19 pandemic is a poi- planning effort for the next pandemic? counterinsurgency, an invasion, or a T gnant example of a rapidly chang- ing operational environment (OE). The virus’s spread has caused How would you assess the change to the OE and identify the key people and organizations involved and affected? major unit reorganization, deliberately approaching those problems is essential to developing options, making sound chaos in almost every personal and Would your organizational readiness decisions, and providing recommen- public sector throughout the world. be drastically impacted? You probably dations that can be understood by all. Facts were sometimes slow to emerge, have an intuitive response based on this Design methodology offers a doctrinal emotions were high, and conspiracies latest pandemic. But can you validate approach to understanding, communi- ran rampant. Political guidance from those thoughts with facts and logic? cating, and developing approaches to all sides shifted and was perceived Is there structure in your supporting situations, such as a pandemic, where as reactive by some parties. If given narrative? Having a framework in place structure can be elusive. the vital responsibility, how would to assess problems is a start. Whether The U.S. military historically acts you approach the task of leading the the next problem is a pandemic, a without developing a comprehensive ap- proach to addressing what might happen once the shooting starts—and ends. Iraq, Colonel Daniel E. Rauch, USAF, and Colonel Matthew Tackett, USA, are Military Professors in the Joint Afghanistan, and, to an extent, Syria are Military Operations Department at the Naval War College. all recent examples of situations where JFQ 101, 2nd Quarter 2021 Rauch and Tackett 11 Figure 1. Design Methodology ing techniques at the operational and in all aspects of operational design, “is tactical levels. The intended audience the cognitive approach by commanders Frames Terms for this article is military and civilian and staffs” (referred to henceforth as war college students, faculty, and others designers), “supported by their skill, Understand interested in understanding the basics knowledge, experience, creativity, and the Guidance Actors of design. The article does not set out judgment to develop strategies, cam- Understand Tendencies to discuss design through a theoretical paigns, and operations to organize and Develop an Approach the Tensions lens, but rather to contextualize its employ military forces by integrating Environment Potentials value based on current joint doctrine. ends, ways, means, and risks.”4 Moreover, Understand Design is not easy to conduct, but the “Operational design is the conception the Problem framework and terminology of design and construction of the framework that methodology are understandable once underpins a campaign or major operation conversant with aspects of the doctrinal and its subsequent execution.”5 The reading. methodology of operational design is an U.S. military involvement “solved” Joint Publication (JP) 5-0, Joint attempt to provide structure on which some elements of perceived problems Planning, the doctrine that includes to begin discourse in order to help com- but consequently created other issues. design thinking, provides a structure manders and planners understand the Following the invasion of Iraq in 2006, or model to visualize, understand, and ends-ways-means-risk questions during when the initial assessments seemed develop approaches to address complex planning.6 wrong and the situation was deteriorat- problems. For the purposes of this article, While there are other available meth- ing simultaneously in Afghanistan, the complex or ill-structured problems may ods to approach problem-solving, such Army began investigating alternative not be a single issue but rather a conflu- as the Joint Planning Process or Lean approaches to conceptual planning. ence of several nonlinear and dynamic Six Sigma, design is a relatively unpre- Design methodology, now validated in issues interacting that affect the operating tentious, robust, and doctrinal tool that joint doctrine, is the result of that inquiry. environment.1 These problems are the also supports a “recursive and ongoing This methodology is used by planners at most challenging to understand and dialogue.”7 Design’s structure allows U.S. Central Command and U.S. Special solve. Unlike well-structured problems, operational-level military commanders Operations Command and, to a degree, leaders disagree about how to solve to communicate with strategic leaders in at other unified commands, and is part of ill-structured problems, what the end- terms those leaders understand. Design the curriculum at many U.S. professional state should be, and whether the desired thinking, as addressed in JP 3-0, Joint military education institutions. Using endstate is achievable. At the root of this Operations, allows designers to use this the methodology will not guarantee a lack of consensus is difficulty in agreeing methodology when planning major successful outcome and is not a panacea on what the problem is.2 Complicated or joint operations or campaigns. Fully for solving pandemics or complex prob- well-structured problems are defined as implementing a design team is resource lems. It does, however, provide a general easy to identify because required infor- intensive and suited for large organiza- framework, supported by an underlying mation is available to solve the issues at tions (for example, unified commands); logic, for discussing problems and devel- hand. In addition, known methods—for however, the underlying thinking can oping approaches. example, math formulas—are available be beneficial at all levels. Understanding to solve these types of problems. While what design is, as defined by current doc- What Is Design Methodology? sometimes difficult to solve, well-struc- trine, is the first step to understanding the Design methodology is a model to tured problems display little interactive theory, and subsequently practicing, the aid in understanding and communi- complexity and have verifiable solutions.3 methodology. cating cause-and-effect relationships Although complex problems exist in complex environments. Although at all levels, those problems at or above Benefits of Design imperfect, it may still be useful. Design the operational level (for example, Design methodology directly supports methodology facilitates discourse, national security campaign planning at divergent thinking—the skill of con- enables questioning of guidance and the geographical combatant, functional ceiving and considering multiple cre- assumptions, and aids in articulating command, or four-star headquarters ative, diverse, and often contradictory risk and opportunity in order to develop equivalent) are likely complex and approaches, and then treating each with pragmatic options with an ends-ways- well suited for design application. This equal intellectual rigor to identify the means balance. This article addresses methodology enables an informational best approach(es). This skill and the the doctrinal application of design discourse communicated through the subsequent discourse enable designers methodology at the political-strategic lens of four “frames” and the common to visualize why the current environ- to operational level while also discussing use of four terms (as reflected in figure ment differs from their previous expe- the potential to employ design-think- 1). Operational art, which is inherent riences. Divergent thinking enables the 12 Forum / Design Thinking JFQ 101, 2nd Quarter 2021 consideration of ideas other than those Figure 2. Operational Design Framework solutions that worked in past situations. Junior U.S. military officers spend Understand the Understand the much of their time dealing with well-de- Operational Environment Strategic Guidance What is the context in which What do our national leaders fined issues, or complicated problems, the operation will be executed? want to solve or change? Understand that are most aptly addressed through Strategic structured approaches—but these expe- Guidance riences may create habits of thought and intuitive responses that are not condu- cive to generating solutions within truly complex environments. Intentionally employing a divergent thinking process Understand the Operational Continuous Interaction Define the to a diverse and uniquely experienced Environment Problem(s) team (for example, epidemiologists and economists when dealing with a pan- al A d io n a n rt demic) has the potential of mitigating at nt cognitive biases and developing options er m e O p ess appropriate to the uniqueness of the s s Operational sA situation.8 Design should pull the minds Operational Approach Approach u o u n of Define the Problem(s) n ti tio of designers out of linear processes and How will the problem be solved? C o n pli c a What problem(s) should be Ap addressed and what must enable them to raise questions that be acted upon? identify additional risks or tensions, as well as opportunities or potentials. Design, as codified in joint doctrine, describe all of them. The model artifi- that balances ends, ways, means, and risk, helps commanders, staffs, and designers cially separates the discussion of each and it must be continuously evaluated articulate complex relationships in a man- frame, but the interaction of the frames (and questioned) in order to confirm ner relatable to both senior military and cannot be overlooked. Designers may there are no changes. The information civilian leaders. Design provides a plain begin hypothesizing approaches at the garnered by this strategy provides the but malleable framework to structure di- beginning as a way to better determine lens through which designers are able alogue in a way that addresses problems. the interaction between and within the to understand the OE. Often, they at- The terminology is simple and relatable frames. However, the OE and problem tempt to foresee the desired future state among diverse groups. It is not military frames should be thoroughly under- of the OE—the conditions that should lexicon filled with acronyms and non- stood in order to develop an actionable exist when operations end—while fully transferable concepts, nor is it arduous approach. recognizing that these frames are not academic or scientific jargon that requires Throughout these framing discus- sequential. Designers examine guidance, unique education to be comprehensible. sions, four terms (from JP 5-0, chapter 4) or questions asked within that guidance, When fully adopted and understood, de- are used continuously by strategic leaders and ensure that the right questions are sign can assist the joint force in defining to describe and facilitate clarity within answered. At times, guidance may be and addressing complex problems. frames: actors, tendencies, tensions, and missing, incomplete, or rapidly changing. potentials. Understanding the frames and In this case, design methodology may as- Design in Doctrine terms goes beyond just knowledge of the sist in clarifying and completing guidance Design is built on the iterative and capabilities and capacities of the relevant through an examination of the envi- supporting frames of understanding actors (individuals and organizations) or ronment (including policy and political strategic guidance, the operational the nature of the OE. This understanding considerations). environment, the challenges of that also provides context for decisionmaking Using graphics to capture the opera- environment, and the development and what facets of the problem are likely tional environment provides a doctrinally of an approach that addresses a given to interact, allowing commanders and based technique that helps designers problem (see figure 2). This framing is planners to identify consequences and visualize systems as part of that environ- conducted with continuous interaction opportunities and to recognize risk.9 ment.10 One way to visualize, understand, from and into previous and later frames. Understanding strategic guidance and depict the OE is as a complex These frames can be envisioned as four is a cornerstone of design and provides adaptive system.11 Designers identify the rooms, and as one moves from room strategic or political objectives, desired actors at play in the environment and to room, the doors remain open to all endstates, force availability, and opera- then examine their tendencies in order to rooms. One must go back and forth tional limitations. This guidance is the provide a “continuous and recursive re- between rooms to understand and higher level culmination and the “why” finement of situational understanding.”12 JFQ 101, 2nd Quarter 2021 Rauch and Tackett 13  Actors are the individuals or groups neutral, and negative implications of It enables a better understanding of within a specific system who operate tensions to determine the problem while the operational environment and the to advance personal or other interests. understanding that the force’s actions problem.21 Relevant actors might include states, gov- within the OE may exacerbate latent Designers develop approaches to ernments, multinational actors, coalitions, tensions.17 As designers identify these achieve an endstate—or a better state— regional groupings, alliances, terrorist problems, they also hypothesize solutions and improve the environment based on networks, criminal organizations, cartels, along the way. During exploration of the guidance received. Understanding families, tribes, multinational and inter- these frames, interactions are discovered, the environment and its actors and ten- national corporations, nongovernmental and a better understanding of the OE dencies, and the problem and tensions organizations, and others able to influ- and problem is developed, which leads associated with it, allows designers to ence the situation either through, or in to different, and potentially better, ap- identify potentials—inherent abilities or spite of, the established civil, religious, or proaches to this complex problem. capacities for the growth or development military authorities.13 Tendencies, also part To reiterate, the problem that the of a specific interaction or relationship. of understanding actors within the OE, operational approach must address is the Commanders need to identify opportuni- reflect the inclination to think or behave gap between the current and the desired ties they can exploit in order to influence in a certain manner. Tendencies are not systems or conditions.18 The operational the situation in a positive direction. When considered deterministic; instead, they approach, as defined by JP 5-0, is a limited windows of opportunity open, are models that describe the thoughts or primary product of operational design, the commander must be ready to exploit behaviors of relevant actors. Tendencies which allows the commander to continue these to set the conditions that will lead help identify the range of possibilities that the Joint Planning Process, translating to successful conflict transformation, and relevant actors may develop with or with- broad strategic and operational concepts thus to transition.22 Not all interactions out external influence.14 into specific missions and tasks in order and relationships support achieving the As thought and discussion related to to produce an executable plan.19 Failure desired endstate—design helps identify the current and desired systems continue, occurs when designers apply the wrong those that do and those that do not. the commander and staff will begin to (or any) solution to the wrong problem. Understanding these terms, and identify the problem frame—the fac- Strong commanders and designers must how they influence the previously dis- tors that must be addressed in order to consider the possible problem and its cussed frames, provides clarity in design achieve the desired system conditions. possible solutions without being tied to discourse. Design is one of several tools Understanding the problem is essential “their” solution. The problem statement available to help the joint force command to finding its solution. Essential activities identifies the areas for action that will and staff understand the broad solutions continue to be thinking critically and transform existing conditions toward for mission accomplishment and the un- conducting open and frank discussions a better state, if not a desired endstate. certainty in a complex OE. Additionally, with stakeholders, while considering their Defining the problem extends beyond design supports a recursive and ongoing diverse perspectives, thereby discovering analyzing interactions and relationships in dialogue concerning the nature of the and understanding the underlying nature the OE. It also identifies areas of tension problem and an operational approach to and essence of the problem and thus and competition—as well as opportuni- achieving the desired political or military furthering understanding of the current ties and challenges—that commanders objectives.23 It is also important to un- OE.15 The precise problem is the one that must address to transform current con- derstand the flexibility with initiating this defines the gap between the desired bet- ditions in order to attain the desired concept. The process is not linear. The ter state (defined by understanding the endstate.20 team can start by proposing solutions guidance) and the current state (defined As better understanding emerges, the as easily as by listing actors—the goal is, by the actors, tendencies, potentials, and commander and staff determine broad through research and discourse, to gain tensions of the OE). actions (the operational approach to im- the best possible understanding of all four The factors at play between actors prove the environment) that can address frames before taking action. and their tendencies impact tensions the factors of actors, tendencies, and (for example, frictions, conflicts, and tensions. JP 5-0 names three purposes for competitions) and include geographic, developing an operational approach: The Artifact The artifact, or output of a design team, demographic, economic, religious, and It provides the foundation for the will vary depending on the objective, resource consumption trends.16 Designers commander’s planning guidance to the gravity of the situation, and the identify tensions by analyzing the context the staff and other partners. team’s audience. The initial output of the relevant actors’ tendencies and It provides the model for execution may be to simply aid discourse at the potentials within the operational envi- of the campaign or operation and national security level. The goal is to ronment. Given the differences between development of assessments for that eventually create an initial operational existing and desired conditions in the en- campaign or major operation. approach that will be further defined vironment, analysis identifies the positive, 14 Forum / Design Thinking JFQ 101, 2nd Quarter 2021 Soldier assigned to 209th Aviation Support Battalion, 25th Combat Aviation Brigade, 25th Infantry Division, uses hand signals during 25th Infantry Division Noncommissioned Officer and Soldier of the Year competition at Schofield Barracks, Hawaii, June 2, 2020 (U.S. Army/Sarah D. Sangster) and debated during detailed planning. the design team. The optimum output weighed against the tendency of a weak- In doctrinal terms, the output is best is a balance between prose narrative and ened Syrian regime that presented the described as level 1 planning detail, pictures that capture the tendencies and potential for empowering extremists—a which can take many forms. Level 1 tensions of relevant actors, along with correct foreshadow that demonstrates planning, per JP 5-0, involves the least the potentials and risks associated with understanding the environment. It is amount of detail and focuses on pro- the initial guidance. apropos to point out that Russia is not ducing multiple courses of actions to General Martin Dempsey’s July 2013 mentioned in this memo. Russia’s entry address a contingency. The product for memorandum outlining options for into the environment was a significant this level can be a briefing, command intervention in Syria is a good example change that altered the potential collapse directive, commander’s estimate, or of level 1 planning detail that effectively of the Syrian regime—a demonstration memorandum with a required force enabled strategic discourse with policy- of not fully understanding the actor(s) in, list. To inform higher level discourse, makers.24 His task was to provide military and potential(s) of, the environment. the output may be extremely descrip- options. He provided those options tive of the environment and perceived in terms of ends-ways-means-risk and Argument for Design problem. In order to move into detailed cost. His conclusion was rich with the The evolution of design into what is planning, the output must provide portrayal of the complexity of the envi- now codified in doctrine has resulted in further planning guidance, the com- ronment, the natural tensions between both positive and negative perceptions. mander’s intent, and sufficient descrip- select actors, coupled with the potentials After the invasion of Iraq, the Army tion of the environment, problem, and if acted on without a whole-of-govern- began exploring design concepts to approach. Whatever the desired use, ment approach. This memorandum was help tackle the complexity of the situa- bullet slides are generally an inappropri- written prior to the rise of the so-called tion. The School of Advanced Military ate format, as they often fail to capture Islamic State in 2014. At that time, the Studies at Fort Leavenworth studied the rich discourse and understanding of tension between acting or not acting and evaluated the Israeli version of JFQ 101, 2nd Quarter 2021 Rauch and Tackett 15  Design also has opponents, who Table. Elements of Operational Design believe it simply does not work based on Termination Direct and indirect approach their experiences. However, one must Military endstate Anticipation question these opponents’ exact experi- Objectives Operational reach ences with design and how they measure Effects Culmination success. For example, did they expect that Center of gravity Arranging operations simply assembling a group and labeling it a “design team” would provide a solu- Decisive points Forces and functions tion? Were they oversold on what design Lines of operation and lines of effort brings to the table? Design facilitates understanding and communication, but design developed by the Operational Methodology, nor Marine Air-Ground it will not solve problems. The resources Theory Research Institute led by Briga- Task Force Staff Training Program put toward understanding an ill-struc- dier General Shimon Naveh.25 Naveh’s Pamphlet 5-0.1, Marine Corps Design tured problem will certainly help, and the theory derives from the interdisciplinary Methodology, suffer the same confusing quality of the designer is essential to good general systems theory introduced by language as joint doctrine. Both describe output. Just as asking someone with little a biologist in the 1930s—the concepts operational design methodology as a tool to no training or talent to paint a portrait and associated terminology of which that supports the commander’s use of will probably result in a poor product, can be elusive without extensive study.26 operational art to develop an operational executing design without the proper re- Naveh, a London-educated Ph.D. approach.31 The Department of Defense sources will also result in a poor outcome. in military sciences, adapted general Dictionary of Military and Associated Design methodology is suited for the systems theory into a methodology to Terms also captures operational design operational and strategic levels because develop approaches for complex military as a methodology and an operational ap- it is resource-intensive. However, there problems, and termed the approach proach as an output. However, there are may be a time when leadership at those systemic operational design.27 His perhaps more significant issues contribut- levels is pressured to move to action adaptation created additional complex ing to the misunderstanding of design’s before a reasonable understanding of the language drawn from his diverse educa- place in the environment. environment is available. This is when the tion—even he would admit his concepts Some overzealous advocates believe thinking that underpins design must be were “not for mere mortals.”28 Critics design will always attempt to provide executed at the tactical level. This is not of Naveh’s work have even called the solutions to problems in a complex optimal, but it is a reality. A tactical unit systemic operational design’s terminol- environment. Those that oversell its will not be resourced to fully understand ogy unintelligible.29 What is currently usefulness have also contributed to the the cause-and-effect relationships of the codified in U.S. doctrine, however, is a misunderstanding of what design is and theater, but they can use design thinking pragmatic methodology for conceptual how and when it should be used. These skills to better approach the problems planning that can be understood with individuals are easily identified, as they at hand. This is an example not of fully minimal study. present examples of tactical or operational executed design methodology, but rather Joint doctrine does create some success through the lens of design but fail of implementing design thinking. confusion by using operational design to examine the long-term condition of as the methodology (properly so) and the environment. What design advocates Conclusion then later as the elements of operational seem to imply is that “design” is the Design methodology is not the panacea design (see figure 3). This makes the manner of thinking associated with the for problem-solving. Design facilitates term sound both like a cognitive process methodology (that is, divergent, creative, discourse, enables questioning of guid- and an artifact.30 Interpreting section B, critical, iterative). These are laudable skills ance and assumptions, and enables the chapter 4, of JP 5-0 as operational design that should be used at all levels of plan- articulation of risk and opportunity to methodology may minimize the confusion ning and execution. However, design is arrive at a pragmatic ends-ways-means associated with the methodology and the focused on identifying underlying causes balanced concept. Like operational art elements that compose the approach. and testing hypotheses that have the po- and the Joint Planning Process, design Recognizing that joint doctrine is a tential to influence the environment over is one more tool or model that can compromise among the Services and 5 to 20 years (versus a 12- or 24-month foster better thinking skills and provide that design evolved within U.S. ground deployment). The resources required a common language between the forces (specifically the Army at Fort to fully frame a complex environment joint force and civilian senior leaders. Leavenworth), it is advised to consult and develop a workable cause-and-effect However imperfect, some models are Army and Marine Corps publications understanding can be significant. Those fundamentally useful. Understanding for clarity. Neither Army Techniques resources are unlikely to be available the joint doctrinal version of design Publication 5-0.1, Army Design below the unified command level. should demystify the concepts sur- 16 Forum / Design Thinking JFQ 101, 2nd Quarter 2021 rounding it. Time and resources may problems, but it does provide a structure Frank Cass Publishers, 1997). 28 To develop a clearer picture of the be required to implement design, but it that evolved from an effective (but quite influence of Naveh’s work on U.S. Army is simple enough to understand. It may complex) framework to one that can be doctrine, see the following: Matt Matthews, take a large organization to properly easily understood by any reasonably edu- “Interview with BG (Ret.) Shimon Naveh,” resource a design team, and the team cated person. And it is in joint doctrine, Operational Leadership Experiences, Combat will likely require significant outside so why not try it? JFQ Studies Institute, Fort Leavenworth, KS, November 1, 2007, available at ; Alex Ryan, “A Personal complex environment, but the cognitive Notes Reflection of Introducing Design to the U.S. skills associated with design methodol- Army,” The Overlap, November 4, 2016, ogy and design thinking are useful at all 1 Joint Publication (JP) 5-0, Joint Planning available at. Implementing design methodology 2 Army Techniques Publication (ATP) 29 Milan N. Vego, “A Case Against Systemic does not guarantee a solution, but it may 5-0.1, Army Design Methodology (Washington, Operational Design,” Joint Force Quarterly 53 help articulate the gap (the problem) DC: Headquarters Department of the Army, (2nd Quarter 2009), available at. 3 Ibid., 4-1. 30 JP 5-0, IV-6–IV-19. state, as well as the gap in ends, ways, 4 JP 5-0, IV-1. 31 ATP 5-0.1, 1-4; Marine Air-Ground Task and means (the approach). There are cer- 5 Ibid., IV-1. Force Staff Training Program Pamphlet 5-0.1, tainly cases in which the ways and means 6 Ibid., IV-1–IV-19. Marine Corps Design Methodology (Washington, are not available to achieve the desired 7 Ibid., IV-1. DC: Headquarters Department of the Navy, ends (based on the strategic guidance). 8 For a more thorough discussion of critical May 2017). thinking, divergent thinking, heuristics, and Design should help articulate those biases, see Peter A. Facione, Critical Thinking: cases and further the discourse of either What It Is and Why It Counts (Hermosa Beach, changing guidance or creating new ways CA: Measured Reasons, LLC, 2015). and means. An honest discourse will at 9 JP 5-0, IV-1–IV-2. the very least help clarify the risks when 10 Planner’s Handbook for Operational Design, Version 1.0 (Suffolk, VA: The Joint forced to take action in an environment Staff, October 7, 2011), V. where ends-ways-means gaps exist. 11 Ibid., IV-1. Is design thinking the right tool to 12 JP 5-0, IV-2. apply to the next pandemic or to the 13 Planner’s Handbook for Operational next major large-scale military operation? Design, V-14. 14 Ibid., V-15. Design thinking certainly has the benefit 15 Ibid., V-10. of forcing planners and experts support- 16 ATP 5-0.1, 1-4. ing planning who have good ideas to 17 Planner’s Handbook for Operational articulate the logic of how their approach Design, V-15. affects the environment, remains consis- 18 Ibid., V-5. 19 JP 5-0, IV-1. tent with higher guidance, and ensures 20 Ibid., IV-14. the problem is defined. Design thinking 21 Planner’s Handbook for Operational also allows planners and commanders to Design, III-10. gain an appreciation for the perspective 22 JP 5-0, xxi. of, and impact on, other institutions and 23 Ibid., IV-6. 24 Martin E. Dempsey, Letter to organizations. Deliberate, reflective, and Senator Levin, July 19, 2013, available at structured thinking is essential to sound. by others makes discourse much easier. 25 Stefan J. Banach and Alex Ryan, “The Art of Design: A Design Methodology,” Most organizations will not be able Military Review (March–April 2009), 105–115. to resource a sufficient design team to 26 Ludwig von Bertalanffy, General System thoroughly understand an environment. Theory: Foundations, Development, Applications However, applying the framework and (New York: George Braziller, Inc., 1968), thinking of design may highlight gaps in introduction and chapter 4. 27 For a better understanding of the knowledge about the particular problem evolution of the Operational Theory Research and avoid faulty intuition-based decisions. Institute’s approach, see chapter 1 of Shimon Design methodology is not a remedy Naveh, In Pursuit of Military Excellence: The for solving pandemics or all complex Evolution of Operational Theory (London: JFQ 101, 2nd Quarter 2021 Rauch and Tackett 17