IRENA Tracking SDG 7 Energy Progress 2024 PDF

TRACKING SDG 7 THE ENERGY PROGRESS REPORT 2024 A joint report of the custodian agencies United Nations Statistics Division © 2024 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Stree...

TRACKING SDG 7 THE ENERGY PROGRESS REPORT 2024 A joint report of the custodian agencies United Nations Statistics Division © 2024 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473 1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a joint product of the staff of the five custodian agencies, namely the International Energy Agency, the International Renewable Energy Agency, the United Nations, the World Bank, and the World Health Organization, with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of the custodian agencies, their respective Board of Executive Directors (or equivalent), members or the governments they represent. 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Contact [email protected] for permission to use. Access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking—© WHO, 2024. Contact [email protected] for permission to use. Renewable Energy—© IEA, IRENA and UN, 2024. Contact [email protected]; [email protected], and [email protected] for permission to use. Energy Efficiency—© IEA and UN, 2024. Contact [email protected] and [email protected] for permission to use. International Public Financial Flows—© IRENA, 2024. Contact [email protected] for permission to use. Outlook for SDG 7—© IEA and IRENA, 2024. Contact [email protected] and [email protected] for permission to use. Tracking SDG 7 Progress Across Targets: Indicators and Data—© IEA, IRENA, UN, World Bank, and WHO, 2024. Contact pubrights@worldbank. org for permission to use. Report designed by Duina Reyes Cover photo: Getty Images/Me 3645 Studio  TABLE OF CONTENTS Acronyms and abbreviations 2 Acknowledgments 4 Executive Summary 8 CHAPTER 1 18 Access to Electricity CHAPTER 2 46 Access to Clean Fuels and Technologies for Cooking CHAPTER 3 64 Renewables CHAPTER 4 86 Energy Efficiency CHAPTER 5 104 International Public Financial Flows to Developing Countries in Support of Clean Energy CHAPTER 6 122 The Outlook for SDG 7 CHAPTER 7 140 Tracking Progress Toward SDG 7 Across Targets: Indicators and Data Annex 1. Methodological Notes 152 Annex 2. References 171 Detailed datasets with country data for each SDG 7 indicator can be accessed at no charge at https://trackingsdg7.esmap.org/downloads. The chapters of this report may be downloaded individually from the same site. ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS CAGR compound average growth rate CO2e carbon dioxide equivalent COP28 2023 United Nations Climate Change Conference CRS Creditor Reporting System DAC Development Assistance Committee EBRD European Bank for Reconstruction and Development EEO energy efficiency obligation EJ exajoule EPC energy performance certificate ESCO electricity service company EV electric vehicle FCV fragility, conflict, and violence FDI foreign direct investment GDP gross domestic product GHG greenhouse gas GW gigawatt Gt gigatonne HIC high-income country IEA International Energy Agency IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency km kilometer kWh kilowatt-hour LDC least-developed country LLDC landlocked developing country LMICs low- and middle-income countries LPG liquefied petroleum gas MEM Modern Energy Minimum MEPS Minimum Energy Performance Standards Tracking SDG 7: The Energy Progress Report 2024 2 MJ megajoule Mt megatonne MTF Multi-Tier Framework OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development PPP purchasing power parity PV photovoltaic PVT photovoltaic thermal SDG Sustainable Development Goal SHS solar home system SIDS small island developing states TFEC total final energy consumption UNSD United Nations Statistics Division USD United States dollar WHO World Health Organization. 3 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Partnership The Energy Progress Report is a product of close collaboration among the five SDG 7 custodian agencies in the form of a specially constituted in a Steering Group: International Energy Agency (IEA) International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) United Nations Statistics Division (UNSD) World Bank World Health Organization (WHO) The Steering Group was supported by the SDG 7 Technical Advisory Group, composed as follows. African Development Bank (AfDB) Ashoka Centre for a People-Centric Energy Transition (ACPET) Clean Cooking Alliance Denmark (Ministry of Foreign Affairs) ENERGIA European Commission FIA Foundation Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) Germany (Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development) International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis International Labour Organization (ILO) Islamic Development Bank Kenya (Ministry of Energy and Petroleum) Latin American Energy Organization (OLADE) Modern Energy Cooking Services (MECS) Norway (Ministry of Foreign Affairs) Pakistan (Ministry of Foreign Affairs) Power for All Tracking SDG 7: The Energy Progress Report 2024 4  Renewable Energy Policy Network for the 21st Century (REN 21) SDG 7 Youth Constituency Sustainable Energy for All (SEforALL) Swedish International Development Cooperation (SIDA) TERI School of Advanced Studies The Netherlands (Ministry of Foreign Affairs) The United Nations Office of the High Representative for the Least Developed Countries, Landlocked Developing Countries and Small Island Developing States (UN-OHRLLS) UAE (Ministry of Foreign Affairs) United Kingdom (Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office) United Nations Association of China United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) United Nations Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UN DESA) United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) United Nations Economic Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) United Nations Economic Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA) United Nations Economic Programme for Europe (UNECE) United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) United Nations Human Settlements Programme (UN-Habitat) United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) United Nations Institute for Training and Research (UNITAR) Vienna University of Technology The financial and technical support of the Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP) is gratefully acknowledged. A partnership between the World Bank and 24 entities, ESMAP helps low- and middle-income countries reduce poverty and boost growth through sustainable energy. ESMAP’s analytical and advisory services are fully integrated within the World Bank’s country financing and policy dialogue in the energy sector. Acknowledgments 5 Authorship The Steering Group’s work for the 2024 edition of the report was chaired by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and made possible by agreement among the senior management of the member agencies. Fatih Birol (IEA), Francesco La Camera (IRENA), Stefan Schweinfest (UNSD), Demetrios Papathanasiou (World Bank), Maria Neira (WHO), and Chandrasekar Govindarajalu (ESMAP) oversaw the development of the Report in collaboration with Minoru Takada (UNDESA). Technical co-leadership of the project by the custodian agencies was the responsibility of Laura Cozzi (IEA), Raul Alfaro-Pelico (IRENA), Leonardo Souza (UNSD), Sandeep Kohli (World Bank), and Heather Adair-Rohani (WHO). The chapter on access to electricity was prepared by the World Bank (Patrick Rugwizangoga, Charles Alexander Miller, Jennifer Samantha Lynch, Raihan Elahi, Andreas Sahlberg, Ashish Shrestha, H. Stephen Halloway, and Ushanjani Gollapudi), with contributions from IRENA (Dennis Akande), the Global Off-Grid Lighting Association (Oliver Reynolds and Susie Wheeldon), and the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (Francesca Coloni and Theresa Beltramo). The chapter on clean cooking was prepared by WHO (Heather Adair-Rohani, Alina Cherkas, Wenlu Ye), with substantial contributions from Oliver Stoner (University of Glasgow). The chapter on renewable energy was prepared by IEA (Kartik Veerakumar, Francois Briens, Roberta Quadrelli, Juha Koykka, Pouya Taghavi) and IRENA (Gerardo Escamilla, Mirjam Reiner, and Hannah Guinto), with substantial contributions from UNSD (Leonardo Souza, and Agnieszka Koscielniak). The chapter on energy efficiency was prepared by IEA (Federico Callioni, Juha Koykka, Roberta Quadrelli, and Pouya Taghavi), with contributions from UNSD (Leonardo Souza and Agnieszka Koscielniak). The chapter on financial flows was prepared by IRENA (Gerardo Escamilla, Mirjam Reiner, Hannah Guinto, Ntsebo Sephelane, Faran Rana and Diala Hawila). The outlook chapter was prepared by IEA (Bruno Idini, Gianluca Tonolo, Daniel Wetzel, Nouhoun Diarra, and Katarina Malmgren), with IRENA (Ricardo Gorini, Mengzhu Xiao, Mirjam Reiner, Hannah Guinto and Nicholas Wagner, and WHO (Alina Cherkas, Wenlu Ye, and Heather Adair-Rohani). The chapter on indicators and data was jointly prepared by the custodian agencies under the coordination of IEA (Bruno Idini). Tracking SDG 7: The Energy Progress Report 2024 6 Data sources The report draws on two meta databases of global household surveys—the Global Electrification Database managed by the World Bank and the Global Household Energy Database and related estimates managed by WHO. Energy balance statistics and indicators for renewable energy and energy efficiency were prepared by IEA (Roberta Quadrelli and Pouya Taghavi, with support from Alexandre Bizeul and Juha Koykka) and UNSD (Leonardo Souza, Agnieszka Koscielniak, and Costanza Giovannelli). The renewable energy-generating capacity per capita indicator, compiled by IRENA (Gerardo Escamilla) is based on the IRENA electricity capacity database and the United Nations Population Prospects. The indicator on international financial flows to developing countries was prepared by IRENA (Gerardo Escamilla) based on IRENA’s Public Investments Database and the OECD/DAC Creditor Reporting System. Data on gross domestic product and value-added were drawn chiefly from the International Monetary Fund database. Population data are from the United Nations Population Division. Detailed datasets with country data for each SDG 7 indicator can be accessed at no charge at https://trackingsdg7. esmap.org/downloads. Review and consultation The public consultation and peer review process was coordinated by IEA. Comments were provided by the Council of Engineers for the Energy Transition (CEET); the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC); ENERGIA; the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP); the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations; Norway (Ministry of Foreign Affairs); Sustainable Energy for All (SEforALL); the Office of the High Representative for the Least Developed Countries, Landlocked Developing Countries and Small Island Developing States (UN-OHRLLS); TERI School of Advanced Studies; the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP); the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO); and United Nations Institute for Training and Research (UNITAR). IEA’s internal review process was led by Laura Cozzi with contributions from Daniel Wetzel, Bruno Idini, Kartik Veerakumar, Francois Briens, Pouya Taghavi, Roberta Quadrelli, and Gianluca Tonolo. IRENA’s internal review process was led by Ute Collier and Raul Alfaro-Pelico, with contributions from Mirjam Reiner, Gerardo Escamilla, Hannah Guinto, Julian Prime, Laura El Katiri, Caroline Ochieng, Ntsebo Sephelane, Babucarr Bitaye, Wilson Mattekenya, and Francis Field. UNSD’s internal review process was led by Leonardo Souza, with contributions from Agnieszka Koscielniak. The World Bank’s internal peer review process was led by Demetrios Papathanasiou, with contributions from Chandrasekar Govindarajalu, Dana Rysankova, Sandeep Kohli, Jan Friedrich Kappen, Monali Ranade, Joern Huenteler, Chiara Rogate, and Zubair Sadeque. Outreach The communications process was led by Oliver Joy (IEA) in coordination with the custodian agencies’ communication focal points: Nanda Febriani Moenandar (IRENA), Lucie Cecile Blyth (World Bank), and, on behalf of UNSD, Francyne Harrigan, Pragati Pascale, and Veronika Ruskova (UN DESA). The online platform (http://trackingSDG7.esmap.org) was developed by Derilinx, Inc. The report was edited by Steven Kennedy. It was designed and typeset by Duina Reyes. Acknowledgments 7 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Photo: © Unsplash EXECUTIVE SUMMARY EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Since its inception in 2018, Tracking SDG 7: The Energy Progress Report has become the global reference for information on progress toward the achievement of Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG 7) of the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. The report is produced annually by the five custodian agencies responsible for tracking progress toward the goal. The custodian agencies are the International Energy Agency (IEA), the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), the United Nations Statistics Division (UNSD), the World Bank, and the World Health Organization (WHO). The aim of SDG 7 is to “ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern energy for all.” This report thus summarizes global progress on energy access, energy efficiency, renewable energy, clean cooking, and international cooperation to advance SDG 7. It presents updated statistics for each of the indicators and provides policy insights on priority areas and actions needed to spur further progress on SDG 7. Figure ES.1 offers a snapshot of the primary indicators for 2023, which was the mid-point of the implementation of the UN 2030 Agenda. Despite some progress across the indicators, the current pace is not adequate to achieve any of the 2030 targets for SDG 7. As in previous years, rates of progress vary significantly across regions, with some regions making substantial gains and some slowing their progress or even moving backward. Among the major economic factors impeding the realization of the goal are the uncertain macroeconomic outlook, high levels of inflation, debt distress in a growing number of countries, inequitable distribution of finance and other resources, supply chain bottlenecks, and soaring prices for materials. The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and the steady rise in energy prices since summer 2021 have been a further drag on progress, particularly in the most vulnerable countries and those that were already lagging behind. 9 9 FIGURE ES.1 PRIMARY INDICATORS OF GLOBAL PROGRESS TOWARD THE SDG 7 TARGETS INDICATOR 2015 LATEST YEAR 7.1.1 Proportion of 957.5 685 population with access million million to electricity people without people without access to electricity access to electricity (2022) 7.1.2 Proportion of population with primary 2.7 2.1 reliance on clean fuels billion billion and technology for people without access people without access cooking to clean cooking to clean cooking (2022) 7.2.1 Renewable energy 16.7% 18.7% share in total final share of total final share of total final energy consumption energy consumption energy consumption from renewables from renewables (2021) 7.3.1 Energy intensity 4.9 4.6 measured as a ratio of MJ/USD MJ/USD primary energy primary energy primary energy and GDP intensity intensity (2021) 7.a.1 International financial flows to developing countries 12.3 15.4 in support of clean energy USD billion USD billion research and development international financial flows international financial flows and renewable energy to developing countries in to developing countries in production, including support of clean energy support of clean energy in hybrid systems (2022) 7.b.1 Installed renewable 250 424 energy-generating watts per capita watts per capita capacity in developing and installed renewables installed renewables developed countries capacity capacity (2022) Tracking SDG 7: The Energy Progress Report 2024 10 SDG 7.1.1 Access to electricity 91 percent of the world’s population has access to electricity, in contrast to 78 percent in the baseline year of 2000. There is much to celebrate in this progress. For example, 48 countries achieved universal access to electricity between 2010 and 2020. However, population growth outpaced access growth between 2020 and 2022, leaving 10 million more people without access in 2022 than in 2021. Multiple factors contributed to this reversal, among them disruptions to energy markets and prices stemming from global shocks such as COVID-19, the war in Ukraine, and instability in the Middle East. At the same time, the remaining unelectrified population is more challenging to serve because much of it is remote and low-income. Under current scenarios, the energy access gap is projected to improve modestly, closing to 8 percent in 2030, leaving an estimated 660 million people without access. The largest growth in access between 2020 and 2022 was seen in Central and Southern Asia, where connections increased by an average of 40.1 million people per year—nearly double the growth in population (20.6 million). In contrast, the average annual increase in access in Sub-Saharan Africa during the same period (31.1 million) just barely exceeded average annual population growth (28.7 million). As a result, Sub-Saharan Africa’s share of the global deficit ballooned from 49.6 percent in 2010 to 83.3 percent in 2022. In Latin America, 18 countries achieved universal access over these same years. The urban-rural divide continues to shrink. Electricity access in urban areas increased from 96 percent in 2010 to 98 percent in 2022, staying ahead of population growth. Informal peri-urban settlements will present a stiff challenge to bringing urban access rates to 100 percent. Access deficits in rural areas shrank from 886 million globally in 2010 to 562 million in 2022. The steepest decline was in Central and Southern Asia (from 383 million to just 24 million). By contrast, the deficit grew in rural areas of Sub-Saharan Africa (from 376 million to 473million). Decentralized renewable energy can bring electricity to the difficult-to-reach rural locations where much of the remaining unconnected population lives. In 2022, the IEA estimated that 2.5 million households gained electricity access thanks to solar-home systems and smaller solar lighting systems. The World Bank finds that in total, stand- alone off-grid solar solutions, including solar lights and solar home systems, were estimated to serve 490 million people in 2022. IRENA estimates that 158 of the 490 million had access to solar lights and home systems meeting international quality standards. The World Bank has estimated around 47 million people were connected to 19,000 mini grids as of 2022. Hydropower and solar technologies are increasingly being deployed and now account for a third of total mini-grids installed. Decentralized solutions (including stand-alone systems in remote and sparsely settled areas) offer a cost competitive alternative to grid expansion and can be rapidly deployed to meet levels of demand too low to justify grid investments. In addition, the productive uses in rural communities, such as solar water pumps, refrigerators, agro-processing machinery, and a wide range of equipment for microenterprises, contribute to socioeconomic development and improve quality of life. Together, these can increase incomes and raise productivity, contributing to job creation, the emergence of new enterprises, and economic growth. Increases in access to electricity must accelerate to achieve SDG 7.1, and decentralized renewable energy will play a central role. Achieving SDG 7.1 by 2030 is possible only by deploying a combination of grid, mini-grid, and stand-alone off-grid solutions that leverage the faster deployment of distributed renewables to meet current levels of demand quickly. National and regional electrification programs using public funding to unlock private co-investment at scale can bring these solutions to life. Executive Summary 11 SDG 7.1.2 Access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking While there has been some progress in the global rate of access over the past two decades, the world is still not on track to achieve universal access to clean cooking by 2030. In 2022, 74 percent of the world’s population had access to clean cooking fuels and technologies (such as stoves powered by electricity, liquefied petroleum gas, natural gas, biogas, or ethanol), up from 64 percent in 2015, but approximately 2.1 billion people still relied on polluting fuels and technologies (charcoal, coal, crop waste, dung, kerosene, and wood) as their main source of energy for cooking. If current trends continue, only 79 percent of the world’s population will have access to clean cooking by 2030. This leaves nearly 1.8 billion people in 2030 vulnerable to the adverse effects of polluting cooking fuels and technologies on their health and livelihoods, not to mention their environment. By region, the access deficit has fallen consistently in Eastern Asia and South-eastern Asia since 2000, and in Central Asia and Southern Asia since 2010. Looking at countries, the improvement has been driven chiefly by progress in the most populous low- and middle-income countries, such as India, China, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Pakistan. In Sub-Saharan Africa, however, there has been a clear upward trend in the deficit, as access to clean cooking has failed to keep pace with growing populations. Most of the global access deficit can be found in countries in that region, as well as in Central Asia and Southern Asia. In 2022, an estimated 79 percent of the population in Sub- Saharan Africa and 33 percent of people living in Central Asia and Southern Asia were still using polluting fuels and technologies for cooking. The urban-rural gap across regions has been narrowing in all regions except Sub-Saharan Africa, where it is rising sharply. In Sub-Saharan Africa, only 7 percent of rural households have access to clean cooking, while the figure is 40 percent in urban areas. In Latin America and the Caribbean, one of the most urbanized regions in the world, around 35 percent of the rural population still lacks access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking, around twice as much compared to urban areas. The heavy use of traditional biomass among rural populations results in higher household air pollution and adverse health outcomes, particularly among women and children. Among the specific fuels and technologies being used by low- and middle-income countries in 2022, gaseous fuels (liquefied petroleum gas, natural gas, biogas) remain the main energy source for cooking among 60 percent of people (4 billion), while electricity was the main fuel for 8 percent (550 million). Unprocessed biomass (wood, crop waste, dung), a polluting alternative, was the main fuel for 26 percent of people (1.7 billion) and charcoal for 4 percent (241 million). The use of gas (LPG, natural gas, and biogas) as the primary fuel is increasing at a faster rate than electricity, both in rural areas and overall. However, in urban areas, the use of electricity is rising faster than gas. It should be noted that the simultaneous use of several different fuels and technologies is extremely common, and that household energy survey data may not fully reflect the actual fuels and technologies being used or their proportions. The vast majority of low- and middle-income countries will miss the 2030 universal access target unless efforts are strengthened. However, there is growing momentum on the international agenda to advance clean cooking efforts, particularly in Africa, through various multi-lateral for a, such as G7, G20, and COP, and increasing financial commitments from countries and companies. At the international level, collaborative efforts that focus on scalable and sustainable policies and interventions across governments, nongovernmental organizations, the private sector, and communities are the key to raising investment in universal access to clean cooking by 2030, and so reaping long- lasting health, social, and climate benefits. Tracking SDG 7: The Energy Progress Report 2024 12 SDG 7.2 Renewable energy Target 7.2 aims at increasing the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix and raising per capita generating capacity from renewable sources. In 2021, the share of renewable energy in total final energy consumption (TFEC) was 18.7 percent. The share of modern renewables—that is, excluding traditional uses of biomass—was a low 12.5 percent—just four percentage points higher than in 2010. This is despite significant growth in modern renewable energy consumption, which increased by over 30 percent during this period, owing chiefly to the deployment of electricity generated from renewable sources. While no quantitative milestone has been set, the current trend is neither in line with the target nor consistent with internationally agreed climate objectives. To keep global climate targets in reach, the deployment of renewable energy must accelerate across the three key categories of electricity, heat, and transport. Renewable electricity represents one-third of global renewable energy consumption and half of modern renewable energy consumption. Use of renewable electricity increased by almost half between 2015 and 2021, driven mostly by wind and solar PV deployments. The rise increased renewables’ share in total electricity consumption from 23 percent to 28.2 percent. Meanwhile, renewables’ share in energy used for heating was 23.5 percent in 2021, but more than half of that came through traditional use of biomass (of which 95 percent was in Africa and Asia). Excluding renewable electricity and ambient heat, the share of modern renewables was just 10.4 percent. Renewables’ share in transport energy demand climbed to 4.4 percent of in 2021, up from 3.5 percent in 2015, when biofuels (crop-based ethanol and biodiesel) still dominated. The growth was driven by the rise in electric vehicle sales and a higher proportion of renewables in transport-related electricity. Renewable electricity used in vehicles and trains grew 34 percent during this period, representing almost one-fifth of growth in renewables’ share in total energy consumed for transport. Renewables-based generating capacity continues to rise. In 2022, it reached 424 watts per capita globally: 1,073 watts per person in developed countries and 293 watts per capita in developing countries. The 2022 average is more than double that of ten years prior. Progress across regions and countries varies widely depending on resource availability, policy support, consumption patterns, and energy efficiency performance. Latin America and the Caribbean show the highest share of use of modern renewable energy, at 28 percent of TFEC in 2021, chiefly due to the consumption of bioenergy for industrial processes and biofuels for transport, as well as the important role of hydropower in the region. Between 2010 and 2021, the United Kingdom and Indonesia made the greatest progress in the use of modern renewables (up 9 and 7 percentage points, respectively, in TFEC). The two countries were closely followed by China, India, and Germany, which chalked up increases of between 6 and 7 percentage points. The actions needed to triple renewable capacity by 2030 as agreed at COP28 in Dubai vary significantly by country, region, and technology. The so-called UAE Consensus that emerged from the meeting calls for a tripling of the world’s renewable power capacity by 2030. That consensus, agreed to by more than 130 countries, must now be embedded in national and international renewable energy targets and plans—accompanied by strong policy action. Deployment efforts in developing countries should be underpinned by international collaboration and finance to help achieve global energy and climate ambitions while reducing inequalities. Executive Summary 13 SDG 7.3 Energy efficiency Target 7.3 calls for doubling the globe’s progress on energy efficiency and reaching rates of improvement in energy intensity of 2.6 percent annually between 2010 and 2030—double the average of the previous two decades. However, because global progress was slower than hoped in all years except 2015, the rate of improvement in energy efficiency required from 2022 to 2030 must now exceed 3.8 percent, roughly in line with the International Energy Agency’s Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario and the COP28 agreement to double progress in energy efficiency. Regional trends show disparities in energy efficiency progress in 2021, following the COVID-19 slowdown during 2020. Despite increases in energy consumption, all regions reduced their energy intensities—a good sign in what is still an anomalous year in terms of energy trends due to the pandemic. The economic recovery boosted GDP growth to above 4.5 percent in all regions, with Central and Southern Asia growing at a 7.6 percent rate. With respect to energy intensity, Oceania achieved the greatest improvement (at 7 percent). However, Northern America and Europe improved by a mere 0.2 percent, putting downward pressure on global progress. Between 2010 and 2021, 14 of the 20 countries with the largest energy supply accelerated their rate of improvement in energy intensity over the previous decade. But only three (China, the United Kingdom, and Indonesia) exceeded the 2.6 percent improvement target. This group formerly included Japan and Germany, until a slowdown in 2021 pulled their average below the threshold. Six countries (Mexico, France, Indonesia, Japan, Türkiye, and Italy) more than doubled their rate of improvement in 2010–21 compared with 1990–2010. That group includes both high-income and major emerging economies, suggesting that all types of countries can make major improvements in energy efficiency. End-use trends showed improvements in energy intensity across all sectors in the 2010–21 period. In industry— comprising energy-intensive economic activities—energy intensity improved by an average of 1.6 percent per year. Passenger transport reached a similar rate (1.6 percent), though the rate of improvement in freight transport was significantly lower (0.4 percent). The residential sector (which comprises final uses such as heating, cooling, and cooking) showed an average annual improvement of 0.9 percent. Energy intensity in agriculture improved at an annual rate of 1.6 percent for the 2010–21 period, matching the rate for industry and passenger transport. Shifts to more efficient and renewable sources for the generation of electricity and to the electrification of end uses are contributing to improvements in energy intensity. Increased generating efficiency reduces energy intensity through improvements in fossil fuel generation, phase-outs of inefficient technologies, and a growing share of renewables to the electricity mix. The efficiency of generation using fossil fuels has increased steadily since 2010, despite a stall in 2021, following the record increase in energy demand as the pandemic eased. End-use electrification is reducing energy intensity through the adoption of heat pumps and electric vehicles, the electrification of basic industries in emerging market and developing economies, and other means. Tracking SDG 7: The Energy Progress Report 2024 14 SDG 7.a.1 International public financial flows to developing countries in support of clean energy Although international public financial flows to developing countries in support of clean energy research and renewable energy production rebounded to USD 15.4 billion in 2022 (a 25 percent increase from 2021), support remains far short of the 2016 peak of USD 28.5 billion. While there is no quantitative target for international public financial flows under indicator 7.a.1, the current trend shows that the world is not on track to meet the goal of expanding access to clean energy research and technologies for countries in need, especially among least-developed countries, landlocked developing countries, and small island developing states. A relatively small group of funders is responsible for most flows; their decision-making significantly affects flow levels and the technologies funded. The 2022 comeback was driven almost entirely by European sources. It was characterized by multipurpose financial instruments and a broad range of renewable energy technologies and electrification programs, technical assistance, energy efficiency programs, and other supporting infrastructure. Regionally, international public investment flows changed substantially between 2021 and 2022 in all developing regions except Sub-Saharan Africa. After four years of decline from the 2016 peak and a year of stagnation during the pandemic, flows increased substantially between 2021 and 2022 in most world regions, led by Latin America and the Caribbean (which showed an increase of nearly USD 2 billion), Western Asia and Northern Africa (up by nearly USD 1 billion), and the category of “unspecified countries” (up by more than USD 1 billion). On the other hand, flows to Sub- Saharan Africa increased only modestly; those to Central Asia and Southern Asia decreased substantially (by nearly USD 1.2 billion); and those to Eastern Asia and South-eastern Asia also fell, but less dramatically. Country commitments remain heavily concentrated, although they are gradually diversifying. In 2021, 80 percent of commitments were spread among 19 countries, as opposed to 25 countries in 2022. The top five recipients of international public flows in 2022 were Brazil, South Africa, Egypt, Uzbekistan, and India. The 45 least-developed countries received slightly more (+8 percent) international flows for clean energy in 2022 (USD 2.3 billion) than in 2021 (USD 2.1 billion), but relative to the total flows the share of money going to these countries decreased from 17 percent to 15 percent, below the historical average of 21 percent. The 40 small island developing states received the highest disbursements on a per capita basis. Some of these states are among the most successful in attracting international public flows. Debt instruments accounted for two-thirds of flows in 2022, down from more than 90 percent in 2010, and the share of grants, equity, and guarantees grew by 50 percent over 2021. The choice of financial instrument is as important as the quantity of flows, as many recipient countries struggle with high ratios of debt to GDP. Incurring more debt would likely hinder their development and their capacity to repay loans. Ideally, international public financing for recipient countries should include larger shares of nondebt instruments and concessional loans rather than loans at market rates. As 685 million people continue to live without access to energy and clean cooking, adequate financing to ensure universal access must be a key priority. More innovative financing instruments and initiatives are needed to support underinvested countries to benefit from the energy transition without compromising their fiscally constrained economies. Here, public finance will play a pivotal role in providing energy service solutions to unserved and underserved areas, mobilizing private capital to this end, and bridging end users’ affordability gaps. Within the wider public finance ecosystem, multilateral development banks, governments, and other relevant actors should work together to shift the focus of energy transition projects from simple bankability toward impact at the program or portfolio levels. Executive Summary 15 The outlook for SDG 7 Certain policy responses to the global energy crisis appear likely to improve the outlook for renewables and energy efficiency. However, the energy crisis, inflation, and a dour macroeconomic outlook will probably hold back progress on access to electricity and clean cooking, as well as growth in financial flows. Access to electricity. Despite setbacks between 2020 and 2022 due to recent global crises, initial data for 2023 gathered by IEA indicates that the number of people globally without access to electricity has returned to a downward trend, albeit tepidly, with increases in solar home system sales in Sub-Saharan Africa helping close some of the gap left by debt-laden utilities after the crisis. Still, 660 million people will still lack access in 2030, 85 percent of them in Sub-Saharan Africa. Achieving universal access by 2030 will require significant investment, policy support, and the deployment of renewable energy. Access to clean cooking. The IEA and WHO estimate that 1.8 billion people will still lack access to clean cooking by the end of the decade under today’s policies and if current trends continue. Significant progress has been made in Asia, but in Sub-Saharan Africa the number of people without access is growing, as access to clean cooking has failed to keep pace with population growth. New commitments to prioritize clean cooking within multi-lateral fora and in African countries, are improving the outlook, compared to previous years. This outlook has further upside potential due to the additional commitment of USD 2.2 billion at the Summit for Clean Cooking in Africa, which comes in addition to the African Development Bank’s commitment of USD 2 billion over the next 10 years, as well as funding already available from the World Bank and GCF. Renewable energy. Strong growth in electricity generation from renewable sources is expected to continue, with renewables surpassing coal as the largest source of electricity generation by 2025 under today’s policies. In the UAE Consensus, more than 130 countries pledged to triple total global installed renewable power capacity by 2030 over the 2022 level. The current pipeline of announced renewable projects will bring the world around 80 percent of the way to this target, according to IEA. However, IRENA calls for more policy interventions and to further increase ambitions to close the final gaps with more international cooperation and financial support. Still more is needed outside the electricity sector. IEA’s Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario and IRENA’s 1.5°C Scenario, both of which outline ambitious energy pathways to SDG 7, estimate that modern renewables must reach 32–35 percent of TFEC by 2030 to keep the world on track, whereas under current policies this share reaches only 23 percent by the end of the decade, up from 18 percent today. Energy efficiency. The global push for energy efficiency has gained momentum, driven by increasing energy costs and concerns over energy security. Despite this, early estimates for 2023 show only a modest 1.3 percent rate of improvement in energy intensity. Achieving the 3.8 percent annual rate of improvement in energy efficiency to meet SDG 7.3 will require robust policy actions and a significant increase in investment. Doubling the current rate of energy efficiency, as agreed in the UAE Consensus, may require even more ambitious action. Financing and investment needs. The achievement of the SDG 7 targets demands a substantial increase in clean energy investments. IEA estimates an average annual investment of around USD 3 trillion in the energy sector by 2030, with significant portions dedicated to renewable power and end-use efficiency. Simultaneously, IRENA’s 1.5°C Scenario will require an average annual outlay of USD 4.5 trillion in investments through 2030. These investments would focus on renewables, energy efficiency, and low-carbon technologies and would include power grids, storage, and other enabling infrastructure. Closing the investment gap, particularly in developing countries, is paramount for advancing the energy transitions and ensuring universal access to clean energy and technologies. Tracking SDG 7: The Energy Progress Report 2024 16  Photo: © Gettyimages CHAPTER 1 ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY 18 Main messages Global trend. The year 2022 saw a reversal in progress in efforts to expand access to electricity, with the number of people living without it growing for the first time in over a decade.1 While the proportion of the global population with access held steady at 91 percent, the 53 million new connections added between 2021 and 2022 did not keep pace with a 63 million increase in global population over the same period. Thus in 2022, 685.2 million lacked access, compared with 675.1 million in 2021. The reversal of progress can be attributed in part to global shocks, notably COVID-19 and the disruption in energy markets caused by the war in Ukraine, as well as regional shocks, such as the increasing frequency and severity of droughts and floods in Sub-Saharan Africa because of climate change. Those still lacking access are becoming harder to reach because they live in more remote areas and have lower incomes. They are heavily concentrated in the least-developed countries, many of which are affected by fragility, conflict, and violence. Regional highlights. Sub-Saharan Africa is home to most of the global population lacking access, and the disparity between regions is widening. Sub-Saharan Africa now accounts for 83 percent of the global access deficit, up from 50 percent in 2010. While significant progress has been made toward universal access in Central and Southern Asia, where the access gap shrank from 414 million in 2010 to less than 33 million in 2022, the gap has flatlined in Sub-Saharan Africa as population growth has outstripped new connections. In that region, 571.1 million people lacked access in 2022, up from 566.1 million in 2010. Meanwhile, the region faces a shrinking fiscal space owing to persistent inflation, high interest rates, and low affordability thresholds. Urban-rural divide. Against a backdrop of rapid urbanization, eight out of ten people living without electricity in 2022 reside in rural areas. While progress in closing the access gap has been more rapid in rural areas than urban ones, the gain was largely driven by significant improvements in Central and Southern Asia, where the rural population without access shrank from 383 million in 2010 to around 24 million in 2022. Progress in other regions has been far slower. Top 20 access-deficit countries. Eighteen of the 20 countries with the largest access deficits in 2022 are in Sub-Saharan Africa. The top three—Nigeria (86 million), the Democratic Republic of Congo (78 million), and Ethiopia (55 million)—accounted for nearly a third of the entire global deficit. Concentrated efforts in these countries will be needed to ensure universal access to affordable, reliable, and modern energy services. This effort should also include a deeper focus on improved data collection and use of modern analytical tools to track progress and support data-driven decision-making. 1 Access to electricity is defined as having electricity for desired services. In about 20 countries where surveys based on the Multi-Tier Framework have been conducted, access includes Tier 1 and above (ESMAP 2022c). For other countries, electricity access is a binary measure drawn from national household surveys. Detailed datasets with country data for the SDG 7 indicator discussed in this chapter can be accessed at no charge at https://trackingsdg7.esmap.org/downloads. 19 19  Decentralized renewable energy. Stand-alone off-grid solar solutions, including solar lights and solar home systems, were estimated to serve 490 million people in 2022, with the majority using it as their main source of light and power, and the rest using it as backup. Of the 490 million, 158 million had access to solar lights and home systems meeting international quality standards.2 Mini-grids were estimated to be serving 47 million people; half of those mini-grids were powered by fossil fuels, with hydropower and solar accounting for 20 and 13 percent, respectively. The proportion of mini-grids powered by solar is expected to rise rapidly in the future. Least-cost modelling suggests that 439 million new connections from 2022 to 2030 will have to come from the grid (53 percent), with 363 million (44 percent) coming from stand-alone solar photovoltaic (PV) and a further 24 million (3 percent) from mini-grids. There is no viable path to Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target 7.1—that is, to ensure universal access to affordable, reliable, and modern energy services—without accelerated deployment of decentralized solutions. But current investment flows fall far short of what is required for the sector to achieve its potential. This indicates a need to develop “self-help” eco-systems whereby consumers’ knowledge and implementation capacities can be enhanced so as to productively absorb larger flows of capital and technology. Strengthening interlinkages with other SDGs by promoting the productive use of renewable electricity. Productive use is linked to increased productivity, income growth, and improved quality of life, contributing to SDG 2 on hunger, SDG 6 on clean water and sanitation, and SDGs 8, 9 and 12 on business, industry, and the economy. In on-grid and mini-grid settings, productive uses of renewable energy enhance the viability of rural electrification by stimulating demand. (Another benefit is that this increased demand helps strengthen the financial viability and performance of the grid where available.) In energy access settings, most productive uses of energy initially occur in agrifood settings, but as access improves these uses spread to a wide variety of sectors, from vocational work to the service-based economy. Hence, collaboration across energy, water, agriculture, and other economic sectors is needed to address challenges related to consumer awareness and affordability, as well as access to finance and capacity constraints at both the end-user and company levels. Strengthening interlinkages with other SDGs by electrifying public institutions. Affordable, reliable, and modern electricity services are key to improving nutrition, health, education, jobs, and skills, thus contributing to SDG 3 on good health and well-being, and SDG 4 on quality education, among others. Conventional approaches to the electrification of public institutions such as health facilities and schools have struggled to achieve sustainability because of limited capacity and funding to pay for ongoing maintenance costs. Innovative approaches can be used to leverage private sector expertise and investment, while ensuring that financing and incentives are structured to ensure sustainability over the long term. 2 This figure encompasses Asia (excluding China), Africa, Central America and the Caribbean, the Middle East, Oceania, and South America. The main quality standard used for off-grid solar lights and home systems up to 350 W is IEC Technical Standard 62257-9-8:2020, with other standards covering specific components. For more information, see IEC (2024). Tracking SDG 7: The Energy Progress Report 2024 20  ncome Angola Low income Burkina Faso Democratic Republic of Low income the Congo Sudan co me r Low in asca dag Are we on track? co me Ma Ni ge r ue w in Eth biq Lo United Repu of Tanzania opi zam da ia e Ugan Mo om inc ow The number of people living withoutL electricity around the world increased in 2022 for the first time in more than a blic Lo wi e nc om om decade. Although the percentage of people with access held steady at 91 percent, the number of people grew faster, inc e come Low Lower middl income leaving 685.2 million people still living without access—about 10 million more than in 2021 (figure 1.1). The reversal of Low in progress can be attributed in part to global shocks, such as COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine. Those still lacking access are heavily concentrated in Sub-Saharan Africa and in least-developed countries, many of which have been more e deeply affected by the ongoing global crises or are beset by fragility, conflict, and violence. Many governments in these areas continue to face a shrinking fiscal space owing to persistent inflation and high interest rates on borrowings. Moreover, those still lacking access are increasingly hard to reach because they live in more remote areas and have lower incomes. Under current scenarios, the energy access gap is projected to stall at 8 percent in 2030, leaving an estimated 660 million people without access. SDG target 7.1 is still achievable, but time is running out. 10 100% 0.89 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.91 0.91 FIGURE 1.1 9PERCENTAGE 0.86 OF 0.87 0.88 POPULATION WITH ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY, 2000–30 90% 0% 8 100% Share of population with access to electricity 80% 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.68 Population (billions) 7 1 0.9 0.8 70% 1 6 60% 5 50% 4 40% 7 7.1 7.2 7.24 Status as of 6.3baseline year6.4 in 2000 6.6 6.7 6.9 78% 3 30% Progress between 2000 and 2010 84% 2 Progress between 2010 and 2021 20% 91% Projected 1 progress up to 2030 10% 92% 0 0% Source: IEA and World Bank 2024b. 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 With access to electricity Significant progress was made between 2010 and 2020, with access to electricity growing by an average of 0.77 Without access to electricity percentage points per year during the period. That pace dropped to 0.43 percentage points between 2020 and Share of population with access to electricity 2022, putting increased pressure on future efforts to achieve SDG target 7.1, which will now require an average annual increase in access of 1.08 percentage points through 2030 (figure 1.2). FIGURE 1.2 AVERAGE ANNUAL INCREASE IN ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY, 2000–30 Annual increase in access required to reach universal access by 2030 1.00 Annualized average change 0.75 (percentage points) 1.08 0.50 0.77 0.25 0.52 0.43 0.00 2000–10 2010–20 2020–22 2022–30 Base period Source: World Bank 2024b. Chapter 1 Access to Electricity 21 Since 2010, 48 additional countries were able to achieve universal access to electricity3 (figure 1.3). The greatest progress was seen in Latin America and the Caribbean (18 of the 48 countries), whereas only 2 countries in Sub- Saharan Africa—Seychelles and Mauritius—were able to reach universal access. Ninety-three countries around the globe still fall short of this goal, the vast majority of them in Sub-Saharan Africa. A serious scale-up of efforts and fresh thinking is needed in order to more than double the average annual percentage increase in access (from 0.43 percent to 1.08 percent) that is needed to achieve universal access by 2030. FIGURE 1.3 ANNUAL CHANGE IN ELECTRICITY ACCESS RATES IN ACCESS DEFICIT COUNTRIES, 2010–22 Source: World Bank 2024b. 3 Universal access to electricity here is defined as everyone in a country having Tier 1+ access on MTF surveys (ESMAP 2022c) or according to binary measurements in existing household surveys, such as those of the DHS and LSMS (World Bank and IEA). Tracking SDG 7: The Energy Progress Report 2024 22  Niger 21 20 0.5 Democratic Republic 78 21 0.7 of the Congo Mozambique 23 33 1.2 Madagascar 19 36 2.0 United Republic Looking beyond the main indicators 37 46 2.6 of Tanzania 25 47 2.9 Uganda Zambia 10 48 2.1 Angola 18 48 1.1 Mali 11 53 2.2 ELECTRICITY ACCESS AND54 POPULATION GROWTH55 Ethiopia 2.5 Nigeria 60 84 percent in 2010 to1.0 86 to electricity grew from The percentage of the population with access 91 percent in 2022 (figure 1.4). A slowingSudan of progress 19 in the last five years of the period can 63 be attributed in part to a combination 2.2 of global shocks, notably COVID-19 Myanmar 15 and the disruption of energy markets stemming 74 from the war in 2.0 Ukraine, and regional challenges such as the increasing frequency and severity of droughts and floods caused by climate change in Sub- Kenya 13 76 4.7 Saharan Africa. People still lacking access are also becoming harder to reach than those reached over the last decade Pakistan 12 95 0.7 because the live in more remote areas, have lower incomes, and are more likely to live in areas affected by fragility, World average 3 conflict, and violence. 91 0.6 FIGURE 1.4 GAINS IN GLOBAL ELECTRICITY ACCESS AND POPULATION GROWTH, 2010–22 10 100% 0.9 0.91 9 0.86 90% Share of population with access to electricity 0.84 8 80% 0.7 7 0.8 70% Population (billions) 1 6 1.1 60% 5 50% 4 7.2 40% 6.3 6.9 3 5.8 30% 2 20% 1 10% 0 0% 2010 2014 2018 2022 With access to electricity Without access to electricity Share of population with access to electricity Source: World Bank 2024b. On average, an additional 94 million people gained a connection to electricity each year between 2020 and 2022, outpacing average population growth of a little over 65 million during the period—and this despite the reversal of the access trend observed in 2022. The largest growth in access could be seen in Central and Southern Asia, where connections increased by an average of 40.1 million people per year—nearly double the population growth rate of around 21 million. The vast majority of these connections can be traced to India, where the deficit dropped from about 49 million people lacking access in 2020 to just over 11 million in 2022; and to a lesser extent to Bangladesh, where the access deficit dropped from 6.4 million to 1.1 million over the same period. In contrast, the average annual increase of around 31 million in Sub-Saharan Africa was only slightly higher than population growth of around 29 million in the period (figure 1.5). Chapter 1 Access to Electricity 23 FIGURE 1.5 ANNUAL INCREASES IN ELECTRIFICATION AND POPULATION, BY REGION, 2020–22 100 93.6 80 65.3 60 Population (millions) 40.1 40 31.1 28.7 20.6 20 10.4 8.3 5.4 5.7 7.8 4.4 0.3 0.4 0 -2.0 -2.0 -20 World Central Asia Eastern Asia Latin America Northern Oceania Sub-Saharan Western Asia and and South- and the America and Africa and Northern Southern Asia eastern Asia Caribbean Europe Africa Annual increase in population with access Annual increase in population Source: World Bank 2024b. ACCESS DEFICITS While hundreds of millions of people have gained access to electricity since 2010, progress has been uneven. Vast regional disparities in access rates persist and continue to widen. While Central and Southern Asia accounted for 36.8 percent of the access deficit in 2010, immense progress in electrification in the region shrank its share of the global unconnected population to 4.8 percent in 2022. Meanwhile, Sub-Saharan Africa’s share of the global deficit ballooned from 49.6 percent in 2010 to 83.3 percent in 2022, with a slight increase in the number of unconnected people in 2022 (figure 1.6). FIGURE 1.6 POPULATION WITHOUT ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY, BY REGION, 2010–22 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Central and Southern Asia Eastern and South-eastern Asia Northern Africa and Western Asia Rest of the world Sub-Saharan Africa Source: World Bank 2024b. Tracking SDG 7: The Energy Progress Report 2024 24 The rate of Increases in energy access were rapid between 2010 and 2020, rising from 33 percent to 55 percent in least-developed countries and from 46 percent to 58 percent in countries affected by fragility, conflict, and violence (FCV). However, between 2020 and 2022 progress slowed. The absolute number of people living without electricity was nearly stagnant between 2020 and 2022, dropping from 488 million to about 486 million people in the least- developed countries, while rising from 427 to just over 429 million in FCV countries (figure 1.7). FIGURE 1.7 World CentralTO INCREASES IN GLOBAL ACCESS and Eastern and ELECTRICITY IN LEAST-DEVELOPED COUNTRIES BYWestern AND COUNTRIES AFFECTED and Asia FRAGILITY, Southern Asia South-eastern Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Northern Africa CONFLICT, AND VIOLENCE, 2010, 90 2020, AND 2022 90 90 90 90 80 80 80 76 80 80 70 70 Population (millions) Population (millions) Population (millions) Population (millions) Population (millions) 70 70 Least-developed countries 70 Fragile and70conflict-affected countries 60 60100% 1200 60 60 100% 60 1200 50 50 Share of population with access to electricity Share of population with access to electricity 50 1100 50 50 1100 90% 40 1000 40 4090% 1000 40 40 30 3080% 30 30 80% 30 900 24 900 21 18 24 486 20 20 17 22 21 20 20 Population (millions) 20 20 2070% 488 70% Population (millions) 800 429 800 11 10 8 10 427 0.9 3 1060% 700 10 53% 0.9 10 57% 6 6 60% 2 2 700 0 0 0 0 419 1.0 0 600 2.2 50% Rural 600 Urban Rural Urban 56% Rural57% -1050% Urban Rural 566 Urban Rural Urban 500 40% 500 40% 46% -20 -13 400 -16400 30% 30% 640 300 588 300 33% 555 Average annual 551increase in number of people20% with access to electricity Average annual increase in population 20% 200 358 200 100 10% 100 278 10% 0 0% 0 0% 2010 2020 2022 2010 2020 2022 With access to electricity With access to electricity 1.2 Without access to electricity Without access to electricity Share of population with access to electricity Share of population with access to electricity 1 Annual increase in access (percentage points)