Geopolitics (2)-4-13.pdf

Geopolitics Q2 Babette Léonard Part 1. A changing world The rise of European Empires In 1800, share of world manufacturing (producti...

Geopolitics Q2 Babette Léonard Part 1. A changing world The rise of European Empires In 1800, share of world manufacturing (production of finished goods) reflected population: o China 33 %, India 20% and Europe 28% After the industrial and financial revolutions, in 1900: o China 6%, India 2% and Europe 62% European supremacy: o Lead in technology and finance (e.g., weapons technology) o Effective nation states Search for commodities → colonization  With those numbers about “the relatives share of world manufacturing output, 1750-1900”, we have a good way to look at the economy. It’s a good representation of how good, strong your economy is. What you produced in function of how many people you have. What happened, why EU got 70% in 1900? It’s because of the industrial revolution, machine help you and makes EU invest in those machines, moreover, what they produced it’s a better quality.  The second numbers are about “leading countries on manufacturing output, 2015”. We can see that it’s not going to last… WWI: the broken Vienna system Comment: By 1850 in EU, we have Russia, Germany, Austria, Great-Britain and they decide to discuss instead of doing war. It’s thanked to this that Belgium exists today, because those powers have decided Belgium can. Whatever was decided they need to vote sometimes, it’s in favour of one county and the other time of one other. This coalition works well and there is no longer any war, but we know that it’s not going to last. 4  Geopolitics Q2 Babette Léonard Because the people observe that they have something in common with the other, which are not in the coalition. So why keep the alliance? It’s the same situation as before with the Roman Empire. Rising nationalism o Decline of the Ottoman empire o Several nationalities and ethnicities o Threat to Austro-Hungarian empire (similar internal diversity) o Russian threat of seizing remains of the Ottoman empire or Austria- Hungary in case of collapse Rigid coalitions o Austria-Hungary is the main ally of an isolated Germany o Threat from the Franco-Russian alliance  The Vienna system no longer work 5  Geopolitics Q2 Babette Léonard A chain of events On June 28, Gavrillo Princip, a Bosnian nationalist kills Franz Ferdinand, heir to Austria-Hungary, in Sarajevo. Austria-Hungary advances ultimatum to Serbia on July 23, which is declined Austria-Hungary attacks the Serbian capital of Belgrade on July 28 Russia backs Serbia and mobilizes on July 30 Austria-Hungary and Germany mobilize on July 31, while Germany demands Russia demobilize within 12 hours Russia declines, Germany declares war on Russia on 1 August in support of Austria-Hungary Austria-Hungary follows on August 6; France fully mobilizes in support of Russia on 2 August Germany demands free passage through Belgium, invades on August 4 Consequently, Britain declares war on Germany on August 4 Britain and France declare war on Austria-Hungary on August 12  Everything is going so fast… 6  Geopolitics Q2 Babette Léonard The Sykes-Picot Agreement The Ottoman Empire as ally to Germany and Austria-Hungary British and French seek to find allies within the Ottoman Empire Thomas E. Lawrence can spark a revolt among Arabs in 1916 through the Sharif of Mecca, Hussein bin Ali, and his son Emir Faisal, promising an Arab homeland if they fight their Ottoman rulers. Also in 1916, through the Sykes-Picot agreement, the British and French divide Arab territories among them Territories lost by Ottoman Empire Dynamics leading up to WW2 The Russian Revolution (1917) The Treaty of Versailles (1919) The Russian revolution First phase: February 1917 o Provisional government, initially supported by the Petrograd Soviet o Abdication of the Tsar and abolition of the monarchy o Soviets (‘Councils of workmen and soldiers’) o The Bolshevik party and the return of Lenin Second Phase: October 1917 o Bolshevik takeover (25 October) March 1918: Signing of the Brest-Litovsk peace Treaty, ending the War in the East Civil war and the creation of the Soviet-Union (USSR) in 1922  Strong country supporting revolutionary ideas. 7  Geopolitics Q2 Babette Léonard The started point Big impact on the WWI and WWII, influence our life today. In Russia we have an empire, and a dynasty. The tsar (Nicolas II) ruled the country with the support of the elite however, a very large part of the population was suffering (food crisis and tensions). That’s the perfect condition for a revolution. Before, Marx said that the power should be share and for poor Russian people, that was a perfect idee and they want to test it. Council was representative of industry, army… October revolution and they have built the Soviet Union. That was a temporal government, and it works well. But Lenin was contesting the power and he wanted to lead the revolution quickly has possible and he is not happy because he had to share the power with other parties. That’s the started point of the October revolution. But one problem, Lenin was in Switzerland because he challenged the power, so why did them allow him to return… he cannot pass by Russia so he had a deal within the Germans he promised if I gave power I will stop about the war. In October he wants to negotiate a peace with the German, that’s a big news because Germans have only one front now, easiest for them. By taking time Germans fade up and we see the Treaty of Versailles. Civil War In 1922, there is a civil war, those in power they still have a lot of influence, it last for the next two decades. Now Russia is a strong country with a lot of influence, this idea is to say of the rest of world: look communist is a good regime, do you want to be like us? They want to spread this ideology not only with workers but also by soldiers. Concerning the WWI, it’s the Tsar who decided to go to the war so when he leaved the population doesn’t feel involved anymore. The treaty of Versailles (1919) 28 June 1919 Peace terms ending WWI after armistice (11 Nov 1918) o Establish League of Nations o Territorial losses for Germany o Military restrictions o Reparations ▪ Inflation o Sole blame on Germany Reparations The end of the war is not the peace treaty on 28th June. All country expresses their demand and the most populus is that German loos territory. Moreover, Germany must pay each year a big amount of money to French, Belgium…. We also have the establishment League of Nations but that wasn’t work because that SDN was supervised by the Americans → Woodrow Wilson + no army + the losers of the War (URSS, Germany) cannot participate + every decision needs to be taken but everyone, but everyone has the veto. One of the reasons for going to the war was the idea of extension and that’s the Territorial losses inverse happened because of this treaty. They have also loss their colonies: Namibia, Rwanda, Togo, Burundi, Cameroun, Tanzania one other. The consequence of this war is the lost of territory →Germans are really frustrated, and moreover other country said that’s only your fault and you need to pay for that. 8  Geopolitics Q2 Babette Léonard WWII: setting the stage for the cold war WWII Preparing for the war European populations, 1937, the different green = Germans. By viewing this map it’s easy to think yes, they need more place. 1938 o March: The Anschluss or annexation of Austria o September: Munich Agreement and annexation of Sudetenland 1939 o March: Dissolution of Czechoslovakia and German annexation of Czech part (March 15) o 23 August: Molotov-Ribbentrop pact o 1 Sept: German Invasion of Poland o 3 Sept: British and French Declaration of War o 17 Sept: Soviet invasion of Poland 1940 o April: Danish capitulation and German attack on Norway o May: invasion of Belgium, The Netherlands, Luxemburg and France There is very frustrated politics who think there is a conspiration against Germany. 1933 they 1938 rebuild their economy and military even against the rules of the Treaty of Versailles. The others country really doesn’t want and other war, so they said nothing. And Germany asked to invaded Austria and Sudetenland because the population were agreed and it’s to crate an empire were people talked German. Of course, the other powers said no but no matter what Germany invaded Austria. 9  Geopolitics Q2 Babette Léonard 1939 Next, the people of Czechoslovakia are prepared for the war, but Germans said that they will be the last and so the powers accepted, they sacrifice Czechoslovakia for the peace. And one that happened… see the red map. They’re hopping this is the end of the extension of Germany. A pack between the Soviet Union and the German → Molotov- Ribbentrop pact. They are agreeing to share Poland. In this pack they also divided the territory, one week after signing this. Germany invaded Poland but they pretended to be attack by the UK (alliances games). The soviet invaded from the other side. And French and UK declared the war to Germany but for 3 months there is noting. 1940 The German took Denmark to go to Norway, and then passed by Belgium to attack French. This was a humiliation for French even if they were prepared, Maginot lang. But they passed by Belgium, so soldiers were far away from this point. WWII key events: East Molotov-Ribbentrop pact: Neutrality pact between Soviet Union and Germany on (23 August 1939) o German invasion of Poland (1 Sept. 1939) o Soviet occupation of eastern Poland, Finland and Baltic States Operation ‘Barbarossa’: Germany invades SU (22 June 1941) o Estimated weak red army (Yugoslavia, March 1941) o Force peace with England o Access to resources and supplies  SU joins the Allied Powers (12 July 1941)  Initial success, but Germany underestimated SU resilience  Beginning of the end for Germany Only focus on France without being worried about Soviet Union. So why they decided Molotov- to invade them? By the revolution they have delete the very smart army by a next one Ribbentrop pact with less experience. So Soviet Union was not strong, so they decided to invade them. The only reason why he didn’t do that before it’s because they wanted to attack France first. Operation Germans need resources and Russia is full of them. We have 3 main attacks. Initially Barbarossa they advanced very fast but after they are stuck, because the further you are the less material, food you have because Russia is so big, that’s why they need to be fast. Strategically failed because UK are not alone anymore, they have a strong ally. 10  Geopolitics Q2 Babette Léonard WWII key events: The Pacific Japan joins the Axis powers (Sept. 1940) Pearl Harbor (7 Dec. 1941) brings the US into the War Japanese attack on Thailand, Hong Kong (8 Dec. 1941), Philippines (10 Dec. 1941) Landing in Dutch Indonesia (10 Jan. 1942) Great Britain is no longer by itself, a big event is Perl Harbour. Japan became an allied of Germany and Russia. But thanks (if we can say that) to Pearl Harbour, Americans were attacked and so American are involved in this war. The goal of the Japanese was to attack the Americans and to control them like this they can help the others. The pacific was dominated by Westerns powers. Only 3 or 4 powers in the pacific: Japan, China, Russia, USA. Japan wanted to become the strongest nation in the pacific and they believed if they could neutralise the USA that’s possible. They were well organized and had a strong army. Even if it was a success for Pearl Harbour the consequence was not expected. The have underestimated the American population. All the ship were not destroyed. This included the Americans into the war, so not good for Russia and Germany. WWII key events: West WWII decisive offensives July 1943: Allied Invasion of Sicily and Italy June 1944: Allied invasion of Normandy on D-Day and prioritization of the Western Front  Destruction of Germany even better than its surrender There is an official French army in 1943 Morocco. The British are afraid that the Italian or the German take the ship and ask them to destroy them. French said we have the control, but UK destroyed the entire frigate. Once they have north Africa, the plan is to invaded Italy, so the Germans send a part of their army to the defend the Italian. 1944 They also opened a second front in France, at this point the war has been going on so there is not this way we will be agree by a peace treaty, they want a capitulation. Preparing post WWII Main Questions: First, how to win the war? Coordinate war efforts How to deal with Germany after Hitler? Prevent SU from taking over Eastern Europe How to manage the chaos in the liberated regions? 11  Geopolitics Q2 Babette Léonard You need to have a common strategy, what we didn’t do last one. How can make sure is doesn’t happened later again? How can we make sure that the soviet is not going to invade the Europe now? We haven’t fight against the Nazism to have the communism. Once this is all over how did we manage the rest?  Need for coordination among the Allied Forces so they organize conferences… The most important question is how to end the war? We need a strategy. Giraud and Casablanca January the de Gaulle are not really friends, they hate each other. De Gaulle said “I represented 1943 the resistance of a free France until Giraud is with him the copresident of a free France. The purpose is to reorganize France we need to fight together. They decided to invaded Sicily. Germany will not be allowed to sign for peace, it’s the doctrine of “Unconditional surrender”. The three country, France (Giraud and de Gaulle), UK (Churchill) and USA (Roosevelt) they do not completely trusty each other. They are making a promise, we’re going find until the end. Rem: Giraud will only be at this conference not for the following Different perspectives The Soviet Union are interested in their own security, and they want to dominate, they are worried about their influence. Mostly interested in central and eastern Europe. USA the only reason they are involved is to liberate those people from the Nazism. They want democracy back! A new economy, they wanted to continue the market with Europe. And they still want to dominate Latin America and the Pacific. GB their vital interest is the Middle East and Mediterranean especially canal the Suez. It’s the first big conference. 1943 Stalin is there. They decided to open a second front Tehran Conference it’s the operation overlord. Very important for the soviet because they have already lost November 1943 a lot of soldiers and people. Americans are allied with China to get back all the island but it’s not fast and Russian also involved in Pacific. They also talked about separated Germany into two. The Soviet have made a great advance, but on western front we are after “la bataille des Yalta Conference Ardennes”. At this conference they know that they are closed to win. But they need to February 1945 discuss what is going to happened with Germany. First point was there are looking into the future, and they looked with their own interest. Stalin is not happy because Normandy only happened later although he asked this for 1 years. On the way to liberate easter Europe Stalin had conquered some territory and he promise to organize free election, but he has cheat. If American wanted to force the election, what can they offer to Stalin … noting so Stalin did what he wanted to do. It’s about increasing the territory of Soviet. Germany became more concrete, this is over, is just a matter of time. They decided to give a piece of Germany to the French, no army anymore, of course. This idea of UN organization, Stalin didn’t love the idea because he doesn’t have a veto. Only after France will be a permanent actor. Once Germany is completely defeated, they will attack Japan. Poland will be recreated but Stalin doesn’t want to give his territory back. Next, the war is over in Europe but not in the pacific and so they have the next conferences. 12  Geopolitics Q2 Babette Léonard US: no leverage over Eastern Europe, cooperation in Pacific Diverging interests USSR: recover lost territories, increase sphere of influence (security); access to the Mediterranean Britain: Vital interests lay in the Middle East and the Mediterranean Churchill is not here anymore because he has lost the election so it’s Attlee who Potsdam represented UK. And for USA it’s Truman. Very different context but Stalin is still Conference July confident. They learned that USA have a new weapon, and Stalin was not surprised (of 1945 course he had spy) he discusses about that. But it’s here that they decided to cut Germany into four zones: division of Berlin into four zones. The end of the war Surrendered on 8 May 1945 Germany 1945: Germany was overrun and destroyed Extermination camps: Stigma was put on Germany Japan 6 and 9 August 1945: First use of the atomic bomb in Hiroshima and Nagasaki Official surrender on 2 September 1945 Why the atomic bomb? Quickest way to terminate the war in the Pacific Without US casualties Without help from SU Symbol of the US military power A strong message to the SU Real-life test of the destructive power It was much than a war. But not the end in Japan, they will not surrender, engage in peace. If Americans want to win, they need to do that island by island and it would be a lot of lost and no guaranties to won. So, they use the atomic bomb. American want to show to everybody this powerful weapon especially to the Soviet. Before this war, Europe was still the dominant with France, Germany, UK but now it’s completely over, the one major power is the USA largest economy, the only country that can project its power all over the world. The USA were unaffected on its territory so nothing to rebuild. Europe for the second time in two decades need to rebuild herself and that cost a lot. And Soviet think they didn’t receive enough when you look to their lost. Deadliest conflict in history in absolute terms Summary Emergence of US as a key global player Only one challenger → USA Europe could no longer solve its own problems New reality for European Nations 13