GEOL40310_LectureA01_introduction_2023.pdf

Geol 40310 Fossil Fuels and Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS) Lecture A1: Introduction to Fossil Fuels T Manzocchi, School of Earth Sciences, UCD Autumn 2023-24 1 1 Geol 40310 - Fossil Fuels and CCS • Most of the world’s energy requirements are provided from fossil fuels (oil, gas, coal). • Fossil f...

Geol 40310 Fossil Fuels and Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS) Lecture A1: Introduction to Fossil Fuels T Manzocchi, School of Earth Sciences, UCD Autumn 2023-24 1 1 Geol 40310 - Fossil Fuels and CCS • Most of the world’s energy requirements are provided from fossil fuels (oil, gas, coal). • Fossil fuels are the dominant cause of climate change but will remain important during the transition to a low CO2 energy future. • Ireland currently imports all its oil and coal and about 50% of its gas. In the current absence of significant indigenous fossil fuels reserves or resources, the country is particularly vulnerable to interruptions of these energy supplies. • This module will examine the geological setting of fossil fuels, together with techniques for exploration and production. • It will deal with the chemistry and engineering of crude oil refining. It will examine current and likely developments in refining in the light of increasing global concern over carbon emissions. • Carbon capture and storage – CCS – is an important bridging technology for moderating emissions from carbon-based energy systems. The range of current and potential methods of CCS will be examined. 2 2 Geol 40310 Lecture A1 1 GEOL 40310 - Fossil Fuels and CCS Module Structure - Lectures: Part A. Petroleum Geology and Reservoir Engineering: Geological setting of oil and gas, hydrocarbon exploration and production, reservoir studies. Dr Tom Manzocchi Part B. Refining and Chemical Engineering: Coal and petroleum refining processes, petroleum products Professor Ravi Thampi Part C. Carbon Capture: Principles and practices of carbon capture Dr Damian Mooney Part D. Carbon sequestration: Geological and reservoir engineering aspects of sequestration, status of sequestration projects Dr Tom Manzocchi 3 3 GEOL 40310 - Fossil Fuels and CCS Module Schedule Key: Room ID (i.e. Agnes McGuire Social Work Building, Room B003/B004 Lecture ID (i.e. part D, lecture 2) 4 4 Geol 40310 Lecture A1 2 Room E0.61-SCE (Science East) Room G09.AG (Agriculture and Food Science ) Room F103A-ART (Newman Building) Room B003-04GIS (Agnes McGuire Social Work Building) 5 GEOL 40310 - Fossil Fuels and CCS Module Structure – labs, presentations, posters: 1. Geology and reservoir engineering practicals: Examination of rocks and minerals; calculation of oilfield reserves 2. Poster: Poster presentations on a topic associated with petroleum processing, by pairs of students. 3. Presentations: Seminar presentations of group research on set topics. Module Assessment - 2 hour MCQ exam: 50% - Continual assessment (practicals, presentations): 50% 6 6 Geol 40310 Lecture A1 3 Lecture 1: Introduction to Fossil Fuels Global Energy Consumption: Historical overview Future Scenarios The role of CCS World oil and gas consumption trends Oil Supply and demand Gas pipelines and LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) Irish Energy Consumption: Fossil Fuel and CCS projects Imported energy and indigenous production Historical and projected energy use Peak oil vs. Peak demand 7 7 Primary Global Energy Consumption 2000-2022 2000 • Primary energy demand growth slowed compared to 2021, increasing 1.1% in 2022 versus 5.5% in 2021 • Primary energy use in 2022 was 2.8% above 2019 levels • The increase in primary energy supply between 2019 and 2022 was largely driven by renewable energy sources (13.5 EJ) and coal (10.6 EJ), with increased gas production (2.7 EJ) also evident. • Fossil fuels accounted for 82% of primary energy use last year, down from 83% in 2019 and 85% five years ago. 2021 Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy June 2023 8 8 Geol 40310 Lecture A1 4 Share of Global Energy by fuel 2000-2022 2000 • Oil remains the most used fuel in the energy mix at 32% • Coal and natural gas account for 27% and 23% of global energy demand respectively • Renewables have overtaken nuclear and hydro. They now make up ca. 7.5% of total global energy. 2022 Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy June 2023 9 9 Future global fossil fuel consumption 2020-2050: IEA Net Zero Scenario 2020: >80 % fossil fuels 2050: <25 % fossil fuels “Net Zero by 2050”, IEA, July 2021 10 10 Geol 40310 Lecture A1 5 Scenarios for future shares of Global Energy by fuel - 2050 EJ • • • IEA Scenarios BP Scenarios Net Zero by 2050, IEA July 2021 Energy Outlook 2020 edition. BP, September 2020 The Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) includes in place or announced government polies. CO2 emissions rise by 6% to 2050. Temperatures rise of ca. 2.7 °C by 2100. Announced Pledges Case (APC): All announced national net zero pledges are achieved in full and on time. Emissions fall by 35% to 2050. Temperatures rise of ca. 2.1 °C by 2100. Net‐Zero Emissions Scenario (NZE). Emissions fall by 100% to 2050. Temperatures rise of ca. 1.5 °C without an overshoot • • • Business-as-usual Scenario: Policies, technologies and preferences evolve in a similar manner to how they have recently. Emissions in 2050 are 10% below 2018 level. Rapid Transition Scenario: Carbon emissions from energy use fall by 70% by 2050. Consistent with < 2° C global temperature rise. Net Zero Scenario: Carbon emissions from energy use fall by 95% by 2050. Consistent with < 1.5° C global temperature rise. 11 11 Future global fossil fuel consumption 2020-2050 BP scenarios Rapid Transition Scenario Net Zero Scenario Business-as-usual Scenario Oil Consumption Peak oil between 2020 - 2030 Gas Consumption Peak gas between 2025 or beyond 2050 Energy Outlook 2020 edition. BP, September 2020 Coal Consumption Peak coal: 2013 12 12 Geol 40310 Lecture A1 6 Carbon emissions from energy use - BP scenarios Rapid Transition Scenario Net Zero Scenario Business-as-usual Scenario Energy Outlook 2020 edition. BP, September 2020 13 13 World oil consumption and production balance 14 14 Geol 40310 Lecture A1 7 Crude oil prices August 2018 – August 2023 https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil 15 15 Crude oil prices 1861 - 2022 Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy June 2023 16 16 Geol 40310 Lecture A1 8 1 barrel = 159 litres 1m3 = 6.29 barrels 1toe = 7.33 barrels (tonne of oil equivalent) 17 17 100 million barrels / day = 60 Olympic swimming pools / day. 18 18 Geol 40310 Lecture A1 9 Global Oil trade, 2022 Crude oil Exports • • • • Refined oil Imports International trade of crude oil was 2.1 billion tonnes in 2022, an increase of around 4% over 2021. The Middle East dominated exports accounting for 43% of the total followed by Russia at 12%. The Asia Pacific region accounted for nearly 60% of total imports. Europe was the second largest import destination, representing around 24% of the total. Exports • • • • Imports At 1.2 billion tonnes, international trade of refined oil was 2.5% higher than it recorded in 2021. The Middle East and the US accounted for 45% of the total exports at 0.29 and 0.25 billion tonnes respectively. The Asia Pacific region accounted for around 40% of total imports. Europe was the second largest importer of refined products 19 Gas Price 2005 - 2022 Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy June 2023 20 20 Geol 40310 Lecture A1 10 European Gas Price Jan 2021 – August 2023 21 LNG: Globalisation of the Gas market LNG: Liquefied Natural Gas: Mainly methane, cooled to -160°C and compressed 600 times, can be exported by tanker rather than pipeline. LNG facilities are hugely expensive, so require very large reserves of gas far from market. 22 22 Geol 40310 Lecture A1 11 Global Gas Trade 2022 Exports • • • • LNG Imports 56% of international gas trade in 2022 was as liquified natural gas (LNG). LNG trade grew by 5% in 2022 The Middle East, Australia and the US contributed 65% of total LNG exports. The Asia Pacific region imported around 65% of total LNG, followed by Europe at just over 30%. Exports • • • • Pipeline Imports International gas trade through pipelines declined by 15% in 2022. Russia’s share of pipeline exports fell to 29% from a long-term average of ca. 43%. Russia and Norway export the largest share (ca. 24% of global exports each). Europe is by far the biggest destination for pipelined gas. 23 23 European Gas pipelines and LNG Terminals 24 24 Geol 40310 Lecture A1 12 25 25 Proposed Shannon LNG terminal Controversially included as an EU Project of Common Interest in 2019. Not favoured by the government due to concerns about the provenance of the gas September 14th, 2020 May 18th, 2021 26 26 Geol 40310 Lecture A1 13 Emissions intensity of Gas Supplies to Germany RMI Analysis, March 2022 https://rmi.org/which-gas-will-europe-import-now-the-choice-matters-to-the-climate/ 27 Historical and projected Natural Gas production and demand, Ireland Historical Forecast Kinsale Gas field Corrib Gas field • During the 1980s and early 1990s indigenous gas production matched demand. • By 2014 96% of natural gas used in Ireland was imported, all from the UK. • The Corrib field started production in 2015, but does not meet demand and about 50% of Ireland’s gas is imported ENERGY SECURITY IN IRELAND 2020 Report, September282020 28 Geol 40310 Lecture A1 14 Ireland – Primary Energy Requirement by type, 2001 - 2021 Coal Gas Oil • • • • Fossil fuels accounted for 86% of all energy used in Ireland in 2021, down from 96.6% in 2005. Coal use increased by 104% in 2021 and peat use fell by 37%. Their combined share is ca. 7.5% Use of oil increased by 6% and of gas decreased by 4%. Their combined shares of total energy is 77.5% Total renewable energy decreased in 2021 and has a total overall share in primary energy of 11.9%. ENERGY IN IRELAND 2022 Report, December 2022 29 29 Ireland – Indigenous Energy by Fuel 2001 - 2021 Peat Gas ENERGY IN IRELAND 2022 Report, December 2022 30 30 Geol 40310 Lecture A1 15 Ireland – Imported Energy by Fuel 2001 - 2021 Peat Gas ENERGY IN IRELAND 2022 Report, December 2022 31 31 Imported Energy dependency – Ireland and EU 1990 - 2021 ENERGY IN IRELAND 2022 Report, December 2022 32 32 Geol 40310 Lecture A1 16 Offshore drilling for Oil and Gas, Ireland, 2005 - 2019 ENERGY SECURITY IN IRELAND 2020 Report, September332020 33 Offshore drilling for Oil and Gas exploration, Ireland 34 34 Geol 40310 Lecture A1 17 Drilling ban does not include previously-licensed discoveries 35 Peak Oil vs. Peak demand Historical and projected Oil Consumption “The stone age did not end because the world ran out of stones. The oil age will not end because we run out of oil”. Don Huberts, Shell, 1999. Energy Outlook 2020 edition. BP, September 2020 36 36 Geol 40310 Lecture A1 18 Supply / cost curves for oil and gas Oil Mainly conventional Mainly unconventional Natural Gas Mainly conventional Mainly unconventional • There is plenty of oil and natural gas remaining, but future production will increasingly be unconventional and more expensive McGlade and Ekins (2015) 37 37 Oil and Gas discoveries and sanctioned developments • Fewer discoveries are being made due to less exploration activity • Sanctions for new developments are picking up, but with a focus on gas IEA World Energy Investment 2022 38 38 Geol 40310 Lecture A1 19 Global energy sector investment, 2019-2023 IEA World Energy Investment 2023 39 Primary Global Energy Consumption 2000-2022 2000 • Primary energy demand growth slowed compared to 2021, increasing 1.1% (6.6 EJ) in 2022 versus 5.5% (30.9 EJ) in 2021 • Primary energy use in 2022 was 2.8% above 2019 levels • The increase in primary energy supply between 2019 and 2022 was largely driven by renewable energy sources (13.5 EJ) and coal (10.6 EJ), with increased gas production (2.7 EJ) also evident. • Fossil fuels accounted for 82% of primary energy use last year, down from 83% in 2019 and 85% five years ago. 2021 Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy June 2023 40 40 Geol 40310 Lecture A1 20 Energy options: Scenarios for 2100 Science, 17 November 2015. Many low CO2 emission scenarios envision a major role for fossil fuels as far ahead as 2100. Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technology is crucial to achieve this. 41 41 Lecture 1: Introduction to Fossil Fuels Global Energy Consumption: Historical overview Future Scenarios The role of CCS World oil and gas consumption trends Oil Supply and demand Gas pipelines and LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) Irish Energy Consumption: Fossil Fuel and CCS projects Imported energy and indigenous production Historical and projected energy use Peak oil vs. Peak demand 42 42 Geol 40310 Lecture A1 21 Key References: Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy June 2023 BP Energy Outlook 2021 edition. BP, September 2021 SEAI Energy in Ireland 2022 Report, December 2022 IEA Net Zero by 2050 A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector, July 2021 43 43 Geol 40310 Lecture A1 22