Sans Transition - La Carte Technologique PDF

# Sans Transition - La Carte Technologique ## 274. Sans Transition - La Carte Technologique - Model of technological substitution to understand their dynamics. However, experts are always comforted by the increase in wind and solar power, as if it were equivalent to the disappearance of fossil fu...

# Sans Transition - La Carte Technologique ## 274. Sans Transition - La Carte Technologique - Model of technological substitution to understand their dynamics. However, experts are always comforted by the increase in wind and solar power, as if it were equivalent to the disappearance of fossil fuels. - Marchetti’s hypothesis is still there, explicit or implicit - **How did energy transition pass from debates on the energy crisis to debates on climate change?** - **A giant leap was needed.** - The transition, as conceived by the atomists of the 1950s-1970s, was a gradual evolution, over a century, even more, concerning only rich countries, dictated by the rising cost of fossil fuels and technological progress. - Climate change radically changed the nature of the transformation to be carried out. Fossil fuels were no longer just to retreat but to disappear. The time constraint was considerable. The process had to take place in a context of abundance, without the pressure of scarcity. - The "climate challenge" was thus entirely different from the "energy crisis." - The transition was nonetheless thought of through the same lens. Neo-Malthusian futurology, ## 276. Sans Transition - La Carte Technologique - **At the end of the 1970s, when the climate alert took its first steps in the American political arena, the main focus was not on oil, which was thought to be at the end of its course, but on coal.** - **Climate was mobilized to criticize the revival of coal, and it was used to restore the image of nuclear power, which was tarnished by the Three Mile Island accident.** - **In 1979, the Senate organized its first hearings on climate.** - **"The reason," explained Democratic Senator Paul Tsongass, "is that we find ourselves paradoxically embracing coal and synthetic fuels[...] whose dangers are insidious and impossible to control."** - **At the time, global warming was not in doubt among American climate experts.** - **Exxon, even as it cooperated with climatologists, was worried that these studies would be turned against the company** - **The reality of warming was not being debated, just its timing.** - **" Uncertainties are temporal, they do not relate to the existence of the problem," explained the US Academy of Sciences in 1980.** - **Some climatologists believed that action was necessary immediately.** - **The Charney report warned that, due to the inertia of the climate system, a "wait-and-see strategy would lead to action too late."** - **One could not wait to experience warming before reducing emissions.** - **James Gustave Speth, Carter's environmental advisor, also highlighted this time trap:** once detected, warming would take centuries to reverse. A wait-and-see approach was impossible. - **In the view of many American climatologists, the "ultimate environmental problem":** a catastrophe was coming, but its exact timing was uncertain. - **This hypothesis, which would have postponed the transition, softened their concerns.** ## 278. Sans Transition - La Carte Technologique - **The uncertainty of the exact timing when ice caps would melt** soothed their fears. - **In a strange way, the same scientists who had sounded the alarm about climate change in the public sphere were now downplaying it, by invoking a hypothetical transition.** - **For example, when questioned about the need for synfuels during a Senate hearing in July 1979, Roger Revelle did not oppose them.** - **When a senator pointed out that the massive investments necessary for developing the synthetic fuel industry would commit the United States to coal in the long term, Revelle replied:** “When we look at the history of energy in the United States and the world, we have seen that transitions like the one from coal to oil have taken 50 years[...] which is not very long when we are considering the problem of CO2." - **Climate change specialist Stephen Schneider, editor-in-chief of the journal Climatic Change, lamented the re-emergence of coal, but for him "even for an environmentalist like him", synfuels were acceptable as a "transition energy."** ## 279. Sans Transition - La Carte Technologique - The climatologist William Kellogg laid out an alarming picture of the consequences of warming for senators – disintegration of ice caps, submersion of coastal zones, near disappearance of Louisiana – but immediately mitigated it - It was the same with the 1979 Geneva Convention- the first World Conference on Climate. It ended with this: - "It is possible that the effects of climate change become significant by mid-century. This time frame is sufficient for reorienting, if necessary the way world economy, agriculture and energy production work." - Many scientists, but notably the climatologist who warned of the “dislocation of ice caps” and the “quasi-disappearance of Louisiana” - The 1985 Villach Conference (Austria) which paved the way to the creation of the IPCC also subscribed to this argument. ## 280. Sans Transition - La Carte Technologique - Both the DoE (Department of Energy) and the National Academy of Science, - The US government was in charge of climate. - In the US, the DOE, created in 1977, took charge of climate. - At the National Academy of Sciences, the “Energy in transition, 1985-2010" report had barely been published (1980) before its authors were already at work on the “Changing Climate” report (1983). - The IIASA studied the warming within its energy group created in 1972, around Wolfgang Häfele - Hafele also participates in the 1979 World Conference on Climate. - Most of the early GIEC experts considered the IIASA the main authority on forecasts. - The organization of the GIEC, composed of three groups (Group 1: climatology, Group II: impacts and Group III: solutions) - Most of the Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) of the third group replicated computer programs developed in the mid-1970s - The continuity between the energy crisis and climate change is apparent elsewhere. - In France, CIRED, created in 1973, first to respond to the Club of Rome. - The Tata Energy Research Institute was founded in India in 1977, - The Energy Research Institute, founded in 1980 in Beijing, provided the Chinese contingent of experts for the GIEC ## 282. Sans Transition - La Carte Technologique - **Technological plan for rich countries suddenly became a global survival plan...** - The climate change crisis, in a global environment, was a technological plan for rich countries - At the end of the 1970s, when the climate alert was first sounded, experts, - The “wait-and-see” strategy was a neo-liberal strategy - The concept of transition helped to diffuse the climate alarm - They were reassured, and the same thought can be applied to climate change - The nuclear breeder or, more broadly, “technologies for the future,” had become a global survival plan! ## 284. Sans Transition - La Carte Technologique - William Nordhaus, Nobel laureate - worked on economics of the breeder in the mid-70s. - The climate issue was represented as a resource by the world economy - In 1979, American meteorologist Robert White gave the opening address at the first World Climate Conference - "We must now think of climate as a resource" - This framework oriented the "solutions" to innovation - In the 1970s, innovation was, as a rule, used to solve resource scarcity issues - Focus on the horizon 2100 gives the confidence that the technological solution will come, the more distant the time horizon, the more confident they are. - The most prestigious economic journals often feature articles on abstract topics as these are more easily amenable to mathematical treatment - The most influential climatologists (at least among those active in hearings) mostly thought differently: they would not have wanted to wait to experience the catastrophe ## 286. Sans Transition - La Carte Technologique - The second reason for the success of the transition is due to the discourse of industrialists. - Industrialists grasped immediately the possibility of capitalizing on this dubious future - On October 16, 1982, Edward David, head of R&D at Exxon, addressed a group of climatologists. The event was held at Lamont-Doherty Observatory, near New York City. His speech was titled “Inventing the future.” - David did not question global warming (he would do so later in the decade) but the real challenge is one of timing. - His speech was a early example of using transition for delay tactics. - David stated: “We are in a period of energy transition. This is a slow and inevitable process.” - His story about energy transitions was a deliberate form of climate denial. - David’s speech was published in the conference proceedings, with a preface by James Hansen, who thanked the R&D leader for his “interesting ideas”. - Did David Rose really believe, in October 1982, that a transition was underway and would arrive on time to avoid the catastrophe? - Two years before the conference, a seminar on CO2 was held in St. Petersburg, Florida in October 1980. ## 288. Sans Transition - La Carte Technologique - In 1990, a seminar on CO₂ was held at St. Petersburg, Florida, - Henry Shaw, an Exxon engineer in charge of climate issues, attended the seminar - Shaw argued that synfuels would be essential in “the transition period between 1990 and 2010 [...] because we are going to have a very orderly transition from fossil fuels to renewable resources” ## 290. Sans Transition - La Carte Technologique - It is possible that the impacts become significant by mid-century. - The time lag is sufficient for reorienting, if necessary the way world economy, agriculture, and energy production work. - The 1985 Villach Conference (Austria) prefigured the creation of the IPCC. - “The transition is inevitable. It is just delayed.” ## 292. Sans Transition - La Carte Technologique - In 1979, the US Department of Energy (DoE) set up a group to study climate. - In 1980, the US National Academy of Sciences published the report “Energy in Transition 1985-2010.” - The IIASA, focused on climate issues in the energy group created in 1972, was headed by the German Wolfgang Hafele - This group served as the basis for the organization of the IPCC - The division between Group 1 (Global Climate), Group 2 ( Impacts), and Group 3 (Solutions) was inspired by a 1978 IIASA conference. ## 294. Sans Transition - La Carte Technologique - The Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) used by the third group were adapted from computer programmes ## 296. Sans Transition - La Carte Technologique - In 1982, the EPA released an important report on the economic impacts of climate change. - The most radical measures could only delay the date. - The only solution to buy us some time was to completely ban coal and oil shale in 2000. - The +2°C threshold, a world that is no longer familiar to us. ## 298. Sans Transition - La Carte Technologique - In 1983, the US National Academy of Sciences came to a similar conclusion in a report called, "Changing Climate" - Thomas Schelling, economist, was assigned to write the final chapter: “Implications for Welfare and Policy” - There was a consensus that "the main stock of carbon is held by the US, the USSR and China; i.e. by two superpowers and a country on the path to development." - The “Chicken Little” strategy, to simply adapt to the new reality. - In France, the CIRED (created in 1973) embraced this approach ## 300. Sans Transition - La Carte Technologique - The 1983 “Changing Climate” report - The world would simply have to adapt. - The 1979 Geneva Conference made a strong statement: - “It is possible that the effects of climate change become significant by midcentury. This time frame is sufficient for reorienting, if necessary, the way world economy, agriculture and energy production works" - In 1983, the “Changing Climate” endorsed the adaptation strategy. - The US was seeking to assert control over climate negotiations - In 1986, the UNEP, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the International Council for Science (ICSU) created the IPCC. ## 302. Sans Transition - La Carte Technologique - In the early 1980s, the UNEP - headed by Mostafa Tolba - helped to advance the 1985 Vienna Convention and the Montreal Protocol on ozone depletion. - Tolba argued that the scientific consensus was clear: “The time for discussion has passed” - A 1982 memo by the White House gave clear instructions to the third group: "The objective is not to protect the climate. It is to protect the economic well-being from the negative effects of climate change" - “The 'technology card' was to be played” ## 304. Sans Transition - La Carte Technologique - The US government wanted to ensure that it was not the United Nations system—a handful of scientists and NGOs— - "Give the technology card a hand!” - The US government was in control of the - The third group of the IPCC was headed by Frederic Bernthal, a specialist in nuclear power. - ”There is no conflict between global warming and economic development” ## 306. Sans Transition - La Carte Technologique - The 1988 World Conference on Climate in Toronto - By 2000-2020, we will have transitioned to a more "renewable" future. - The debate is not about stopping warming, but delaying it, while supporting the transfer of green technologies. - The US government could always protect its intellectual property rights - Global warming was a “false alarm" - This was the essence of the American climate strategy in the 1990s ## 308. Sans Transition - La Carte Technologique - In 1990, the first meeting of the IPCC’s third group was held in Annapolis. - The American strategy was to ensure that "the climate challenge does not hinder economic growth." - The “wait-and-see” strategy was the key to this: - The US government could always protect its intellectual property rights. - In a 1989 memo, the White House set out the group’s mission: "The objective is not to protect the climate. It is to protect the economic well-being from the negative effects that climate change [could] have." ## 310. Sans Transition - La Carte Technologique - The 1990s saw the rise of voluntary commitments, - The transition was just a symptom of this greenwashing. - The third group of the IPCC was initially heavily influenced by the US strategic approach - At the end of the 1990s, the Group III of the IPCC was in charge of the “climate technology” - The third group was dominated by industry players. ## 312. Sans Transition - La Carte Technologique - This was the year that the climate issue became a global concern, due to the work of the IPCC in the 1990s. - The first report was published by the IPCC in 1991 - The IPCC became the "voice of climate." ## 314. Sans Transition - La Carte Technologique - It is possible that the impacts become significant by mid-century. - The time lag is sufficient for reorienting, if necessary, the way world economy, agriculture, and energy production works. - The “wait-and-see” strategy was the key to this: - The third group of the IPCC was initially heavily influenced by the US strategic approach - The “wait-and-see” strategy was the key to this: - We can reduce our energy consumption. - These concepts – “transition” and “decarbonisation” - The “geoengineering” issue was resurrected with the 2005 Carbon Sequestration Forum. ## 316. Sans Transition - La Carte Technologique - The “wait-and-see” strategy was the key to this: - A 1989 UK government seminar on climate change - The 1988 Toronto Conference was met with indifference - The 1992 Rio Convention had no binding requirements. - The adaptation strategy became the prevailing perspective. - The climate issue was seen as a matter of economics - The IPCC became the “voice of climate.” ## 318. Sans Transition - La Carte Technologique - In 1989, Thatcher explicitly sought to manage climate change - "The cost of making radical changes to our energy system would be enormous. - The 1992 Earth Summit was an opportunity for the world to do more than simply adapt to climate change. - It was a long road to embracing a new future. ## 320. Sans Transition - La Carte Technologique - A series of events from the late 1980s onward - The 1985 Villach Conference was met with indifference - There is a great deal of confusion in thinking about climate change - The “wait-and-see” strategy was the key to this: - The US government could always protect its intellectual property rights - The transition has been a key part of the climate change discussion - The third group served as the basis for the organization of the IPCC - The IPCC has embraced a more-or-less adaptation strategy - The 2000s saw a move towards a more ambitious approach toward climate change. - The transition was a strategic, but ultimately ill-conceived, choice - The third group of the IPCC helped to foster a new “climate science” ## 323. Sans Transition - La Carte Technologique - The concept of “low-carbon electricity” is more important than the concept of “transition” - “Green steel’’ is primarily a matter of economics and not just about the process ## 324. Sans Transition - La Carte Technologique - The use of carbon in materials could not completely disappear. ## 325. Sans Transition - La Carte Technologique - "Transition" and "decarbonisation" ## 326. Sans Transition - La Carte Technologique - The transition is a process, but one that is constrained by the materials of our world. - This is a very different problem. ## 328. Sans Transition - La Carte Technologique - In the 1980s, global materials became more complex. - This approach is based on a deep misunderstanding of our world. - Instead of the term "transition" – which now has a different meaning - A recent study published by the Club of Rome found that in a recent study published by the Club of Rome - What we have is a “calm assessment” of a world on the verge of catastrophy. ## 330. Sans Transition - La Carte Technologique - The 1980s scientists developed the idea of the Anthropocene - Anthropocene is a double irreversibility, a double accumulation. - The history of the climate transition is quite simple - The transition is a very simple idea - Yet the term “transition” is used everywhere, like the terms “technosolution” - The term “transition” is always a matter of economics; the transition is a matter of economics. - The transition is the ideology of capital in the 21st century # Conclusion - The Weight of History - After so many false starts, has the transition finally begin? - For everything to change, the cost of renewable energy must come down and they must be competitive - It is unreasonable to expect more than the sun and the wind can deliver. - First of all, it is difficult to decarbonize electricity - The current boom in renewables does not mean that fossil fuel capacity will be scaled back - Second, it is only one step to decarbonize electricity - The production of materials, like steel, cement and plastics, which are extremely energy-intensive, is even more problematic. - Third, renewable energy, like all other types of energy, - The electricity generated by solar and wind energy - It is difficult to decarbonize electricity without changing the very nature of our world. - The world continues to be heavily reliant on carbon - The world is still heavily reliant on carbon. - A 2022 report by the IPCC’s third group found that the world needs to reduce CO2 emissions by 60% by 2050. ## 332. Sans Transition - La Carte Technologique - Global carbon intensity is declining - We are seeing a transition to a “post-carbon” world - It is a simple matter of economics. - It is just one part of the process - The problem is that the world still requires fossil fuels, even to produce renewable energy. - It is also essential to consider the efficiency of the world's energy consumption. - "No, the world's energy needs will not decline in the near future." - The use of fossil fuels has expanded to all areas - mining and steel - The world’s materials are becoming increasingly complex - Renewable energy sources, like solar and wind power, create new dependencies - The term “decarbonisation” has a different meaning today - The solution: continue to rely on a global market based on economic growth ## 336. Sans Transition - La Carte Technologique - The Anthropocene marks both a change in human behaviour and a change in the material world. - Climate change is a matter of economics, and we must focus our attention on the transition towards a new world. - To imagine a world without fossil fuels, we need to look at the world through the lens of technological innovation. - What we have is a "calm assessment" of a world on the verge of catastrophe. # Notes - The notes are a series of references to support the author’s claims. - The references are in a variety of formats, including URLs, journal articles, books, and conference proceedings