EOSC 114 Fragile Systems 1 PDF

EOSC 114 – The Catastrophic Earth: Natural Disasters Earthquakes Volcanoes Landslides Storms Waves Photos: Karen Kasmauski; /news.discovery.com/earth/volcano‐ecuador‐ guatamala.html; Brett Gill...

EOSC 114 – The Catastrophic Earth: Natural Disasters Earthquakes Volcanoes Landslides Storms Waves Photos: Karen Kasmauski; /news.discovery.com/earth/volcano‐ecuador‐ guatamala.html; Brett Gilley; flickr user mrpbps; USGS; NASA Impacts Intentional arrival ‐ Aim to be on time (we know campus is large!) ‐ Sit down and say Hi – make friends and influence people ‐ Make a quick “to do” list from your previous class/day ‐ Log on to your iClicker app ‐ Send that last important text then turn your notifications off – be ready to be intentional in your learning ‐ Download pdf of notes before class, and annotate/make your own notes ‐ Ask questions! Today Welcome and Introductions Teaching Team and Topics Course Goals Disaster info you need About the course Background Information  Introductions… You Take out a blank piece of paper Write down your name And One thing that people might not guess just by looking at you A Fragile System? Nat.Dis./Rare Events measuring our earth disaster frequency hazard vs. risk Materials characteristics Energy types of energy build‐up / release conversions Is Earth Fragile? Lucy Porritt population Also the course Administrator humans vs. earth The Turbulent Atmosphere Doug McCollor Thunderstorms hail, lightning downbursts gust fronts storm energy Tornadoes Hurricanes Fields meteorology atmospheric sci. Photo: flickr user mrpbps CC License  The Violent Ocean Waves May Ver How they work: water, waves, energy Destructive Ocean Waves storm surge tsunami seiche rogue waves Waves on Shorelines erosion longshore drift mitigation The Future... Fields oceanography Photo: National Geographic  The Shaking Earth Simon Peacock Earthquakes global distribution, plate tectonics local effects, Cascadia Earthquake Sources tectonic forces, rock deformation faults, stress Seismic Energy ground motion, wave types seismic waves Human Impact Engineering earthquakes don’t kill... ground motion, building motion Mitigation & Forecasting Fields geology, geophysics, seismology Karen Kasmauski,National Geographic The Unstable Ground David Sasse Landslides socioeconomic impacts types of mass movements causes ‐ triggers ‐ effects slope stability: shear strength vs stress case studies, BC issues, liquifaction investigation, prevention, mitigation Fields geological engineering hydrology, glaciology Photo: Brett Gilley The Explosive Earth David Sasse Volcanoes magma / lava properties eruptive products, landforms local volcanoes, case studies threats (lava, lahars, ash, pyroclastic flows, gases,...) monitoring, prediction plate tectonic setting Fields geology, volcanology Photo Credit: /news.discovery.com/earth/volcano‐ecuador‐guatamala.html  Impacts / Mass Extinctions Mitch D’Arcy Mass Extinctions biosphere evolution timelines, biostratigraphy biodiversity, fossils causes of mass extinction K/P Event dinosaur extinction Chicxulub Meteorite Impacts asteroids & comets meteors, impact craters effects on humans Fields paleontology, geochronology, biodiversity Image: NASA  A Fragile System? Part 2 Synthesis consolidate your understanding linkage of many disasters climate change connections Application to You disaster scenario how you can prepare Opportunities for further study Lucy Porritt Also the course Administrator  Not Every Disaster Not Covered: Human‐Caused Avalanches Disasters Forest Fires such as: Heat/Cold Waves Climate Change (?) Blizzards War/Terrorism Floods Nuclear Winter Pandemics Other Disasters Photo Credit: Steve Devries UBC Climate Emergency https://climateemergency.ubc.ca/ How is climate changing? What is causing the change? How will this change affect the frequency/intensity of our disasters? Do any of our disasters influence the climate? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haBG2IIbwbA&t=30s A comment on humour Why are we doing this? 2011 Tōhoku Earthquake and Tsunami 15,889 deaths, 6,152 injured, and 2,609 people missing http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jBdvvXyS‐r4&feature=related Course Goals For meteor impacts, storms, waves, earthquakes, landslides and volcanoes you will: Describe how the natural disasters work. Locate the dangerous places where they have often occurred. Describe the ways scientists observe and monitor natural disasters. Explain why it is hard to forecast natural disasters. Describe what you and your community can do to prepare for natural disasters. Discuss how these natural disasters relate to human‐induced climate change. Course Goals Your teaching team will strive to: Empower you to be a survivor. Enable you to approach new challenges insightfully. Sharpen your observations of nature. Stimulate your excitement in our planet. iClickers We will be using iClicker Cloud/Student: 4% Performance for question responses Your chance to “make mistakes” 2% BONUS!! For correct answers We will start recording iClicker marks in Storms next week Register your iClicker in the course using iClicker Cloud tab on the left hand menu in Canvas https://lthub.ubc.ca/guides/iclicker‐cloud‐student‐guide/ iClickers We know that: 1. Some of you don’t have your iclicker app yet. 2. Your device battery might die. 3. You might miss some classes. Don’t Panic. iClickers – answer ≥80% of all iClicker questions and you will receive full performance marks Some notes about Learning Lectures are live – no recordings Lectures are efficient Lectures aren’t so great for retention You have to do something (activities /discussions) You will be working together Make notes in class – not everything is on the pdfs! Some notes about Learning There is no gene for these topics Being wrong means you are learning Get comfortable with being wrong in class! (So you can be right in the exam!) Plan your own success Stay curious https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20220831‐curiosity‐the‐neglected‐trait‐that‐drives‐success  Comment from past years “… At first, I didn't agree with the interactive aspect of the lectures and exams; however, I realized it's vital to the understanding of the topics. As a naturally shy person, it was uncomfortable to accept this idea, but I'm glad I didn't switch to the hybrid version because I really feel it was a great experience.” iClicker Question ‐ Practice Which one natural A) Earthquakes or disaster has most Tsunami affected you or your B) Volcanoes family? C) Landslides (Or if none has affected you, which D) Storms most worries you?) E) Meteor Impacts (Mass Extinctions) Discuss 1) Discuss which of our topics you are most interested in (Impacts, Storms, Waves, Earthquakes, Landslides, Volcanoes) 2) These are deadly disasters. What information do want to learn to help you survive this disaster.  Course Canvas Site https://canvas.ubc.ca/ Includes: Learning Goals Lecture schedule Course notes Test schedule Homework Grades Sample Exam Qs and more Have Questions? 1) Check your course materials 2) Use the general discussion board 3) Ask a TA – drop in office hours (TBD) or email 4) Course admin stuff (missed exams, etc.) contact the course administrator: Lucy Porritt (me again!) [email protected] Course Evaluation 10% Midterm Exam 1 (September 25th) 10% Midterm Exam 2 (October 23rd) 10% Midterm Exam 3 (November 20th) 45% Final Exam (TBA) – exam dates released late October!! ALL EXAMS ARE IN PERSON AND HAVE A GROUP COMPONENT 15% Assignments online reading/quizzes (average of top 5/7) 6% Class Map Project 4% iClicker Performance (responding) 2% iClicker Bonus (correct answers) Course Evaluation Assignment & Exam Dates See Canvas and the course Syllabus Test Topics – based on learning goals for the modules MT1 Fragile Systems and Storms MT2 Waves and Earthquakes MT3 Landslides and Volcanoes Final Exam – cumulative, slight emphasis on Impacts & Extinctions Tests Multiple‐choice, closed book, individual (85%) group (15%) Homework Reading Homework will consist of reading assignments for each topic – exposing you to a variety of scientific writing Each homework will have an accompanying worksheet – work through this as you read the article, then there will be an online test based on the worksheet for you to submit by a specific date (see syllabus for deadlines). Class Project – the class will contribute to a natural hazards map based on events you are interested in and/or have impacted you and your family. Today’s Learning Goals (FS1) a) Define what a disaster really is b) List the components of the atom. c) List the 1st, 2nd and 3rd most common elements in the earth, ocean, and atmosphere. d) List the metric prefixes and their values from Tera to Pico e) Explain what density is & how it relates to stratification. f) Define fluid, viscosity, and compressibility and how they relate to the phases of matter. HOMEWORK – explore your background knowledge What is a disaster? Easy! Right? Discuss  Disaster Dis ‐ Hard, bad, unlucky Aster – Star (chief star or shooting star) “Bad star” or “The stars are evil”  Disaster Substantial event causing 1) physical damage, 2) injury or loss of life, and/or 3) a drastic change to the environment  First Homework Explore your background! On Canvas – in Fragile Systems Module 1st Attempt due September 15th *Once it closes – you will be able to access some feedback, then have a second attempt due September 22nd – highest of these grades is taken.*  What you should do next Read the following background knowledge slides from today’s class before Friday Visit the course Canvas Site: https://canvas.ubc.ca/ Download the syllabus and note dates/deadlines in your diary Get the iClicker App Complete: Explore Your Background Assessment By September 15th Read the feedback on the homework posted September 16th – drop in on our TA’s if you need help (times TBD) Try the Backgrounds quiz again after reading the feedback by September 22nd Only the highest of these two attempts will count  Things you need to know…. The following slides should be a refresher from some time in your distant past, or just things you should be comfortable with in this course. **If you are unsure of anything, anything at all – drop in on our awesome TA’s, they are there to support your learning – office hours TBD soon**  Matter Elements: A chemical element consists of identical atoms. Atoms: Protons (+) & neutrons in nucleus, Electrons (‐) orbit. Atomic #: The number of protons. Atomic Mass #: The number of protons + neutrons. Isotopes: Same element with same number of protons, but different numbers of neutrons. – e.g. carbon12 (= 6 protons + 6 neutrons) – vs. carbon14 (= 6 protons + 8 neutrons) Molecules ‐ Combinations of atoms. Neutral charge. Ions ‐ Incomplete combinations of atoms. Have charge. e.g.: silicate (SiO4)–4  Earth Materials Abundance Earth Earth Ocean Atmos. by Mass Core Crust Most iron oxygen oxygen nitrogen 2nd Nickel silicon hydrogen oxygen 3rd Oxygen? aluminum chlorine argon Some Elements mentioned in this Course (Don’t memorize the list below, just the table above): Hydrogen (H), Helium (He) , Carbon (C), Nitrogen (N), Oxygen (O), Sodium (Na), Magnesium (Mg), Aluminum (Al), Silicon (Si), Phosphorus (P), Sulphur (S), Chlorine (Cl), Argon (Ar), Potassium (K), Calcium (Ca), Titanium (Ti), Manganese (Mn), Iron (Fe), Nickel (Ni), Iridium (Ir)  Materials Compressibility Able to be squeezed or expanded, so that the mass fills less or more space. …results in a change in density (mass / volume) of the object, because of the volume change. Phases of Matter: Solid, liquid, gas (vapour) Solids Not very fluid ‐ Not very compressible. – Liquids Very fluid ‐ Not very compressible. – Gases Very fluid ‐ Very compressible.  Materials Crystals form when molecules align in a lattice e.g. Cubic: Halite – Table Salt (NaCl), Pyrite (FeS2) Octahedral: Diamond (C) Fluorite (CaF2) Hexagonal: Quartz (SiO2) Ice (H2O) You do not need to know these formulas!  Materials Fluids – Liquids or Gases – flow easily (i.e. change shape) Viscosity – How thick a fluid is – Measure of resistance to flow – Depends on temperature & chemical structure.  Viscosity High viscosity – thick, slow flow Low viscosity – runny, quick flow  Density Density = mass / volume = ρ (how much Matter is in a Space) Units: kg / m3 Some Examples: iron = 7870 kg / m3 ocean water = 1025 kg / m3 air = 1.2 kg / m3  Stratification Less‐dense materials float on top of denser materials. Creates layers or Stratification Stratification Atmosphere Ocean Crust Mantle Outer Core Inner Core Density layering – denser in the core! Stratification Impacts Storms Waves Earthquakes, Volcanoes, and Landslides (Deep) (Very Deep  Stratification of the Earth System These layers/strata are important for our disasters Each of them occurs in one or more strata The strata defines the disaster  Disaster Scales Key to communicating disaster information Use common, standardized terms and measurements Bad example: “The storm happened that‐a‐way, 2 generations ago, and was as strong as 500 screaming bunny rabbits.”  Reminder of Basic Units International System of Units (SI) Standard for time is: second (s) SI Standard unit of distance is: metre (m) SI Standard unit of Mass (Matter): gram (g)  Quantifying Disasters Metric Prefixes: k = kilo = thousand = 1x103 M = mega = million = 1x106 G = giga = billion = 1x109 T = tera = trillion = 1x1012 c = centi = hundredth = 1x10–2 m = milli = thousandth = 1x10–3 μ = micro = millionth = 1x10–6 n = nano = billionth = 1x10–9 P = pico = trillionth = 1x10‐12  Quantifying Disasters Numbers in metric Value = number & magnitude & prefix & units. Examples: 5 x 102 km Means: 5 times 100 times thousand x m = 500,000 m 5 x 10–1 Mm Means: 5 times 0.1 times million x m = 500,000 m (same thing!) Intentional arrival ‐ Aim to be on time (we know campus is large!) ‐ Sit down and say Hi – make friends and influence people ‐ Make a quick “to do” list from your previous class/day ‐ Log on to your iClicker app ‐ Send that last important text then turn your notifications off – be ready to be intentional in your learning ‐ Download pdf of notes before class, and annotate/make your own notes ‐ Ask questions!  EOSC 114 Fragile Systems Lecture 2 Remember to download the lecture notes before class so you can use them in the activities and annotate with your own notes.  Remember ‐ Don’t like this lecture? Try the Hybrid Version Or EOSC 116 – Hybrid EOSC 118 ‐ Hybrid Mesozoic Earth: Time of the Earth’s Treasures: Gold and Dinosaurs Gems UBC Add/drop date September 16th  Learning Goals (FS2) a) Define the terms Force and Work b) Explain how the force of gravity affects motion and energy. c) List 4 types of energy important to disasters and describe what causes them to vary. d) Explain how disasters are associated with concentration or dilution of energy. e) Explain why disaster scales are based on the Order‐of‐Magnitude concept, and interpret graphs with logarithmic scales. f) Discuss the return period of disasters and how/why we determine it.  Disaster Substantial event causing 1) physical damage, 2) injury or loss of life, and/or 3) a drastic change to the environment  iClickers We know that: 1. Some of you don’t have your app yet. 2. Your battery might die. 3. You might miss some classes Don’t Panic. iClickers ‐ respond to >80% of the questions and receive the full iClicker Performance grade [Recording grades from the start of Impacts] Same iClicker course for BOTH sections – so max 50% attendance in the app  Disasters and Energy Energy causes things to move or change Disasters release immense amounts of energy Cause catastrophic changes Related to: force, work, power, pressure, stress, and others  Forces Force (F) A force pushes or pulls. SI unit is the Newton (N). A Newton is defined as: 1 (N) = 1 (kg ∙ m / s2) How big is a Newton? A 15 km/h breeze against your body pushes with a force of about 1 N The weight of Mt. Baker exacts a force on the Earth’s crust of about 5 x 1014 N (500 trillion N)  e.g. Gravity Gravity –A force that attracts matter (i.e. masses) to each other. –Objects of mass m near the Earth’s surface are pulled with force: F=mxg –Where g = 9.8 (m/s2)  Work (W) Work (W) is the force (F) that pushes an object, times the distance (d) the object moves. W=Fxd The SI unit of work (and all energy) is the Joule (J) Defined as: 1 (J) = 1 (N x m) Example: You push with 30 N of force to move your refrigerator 3 m across your kitchen. 90 J  Energy Many forms of energy (4 examples): 1. Potential Energy 2. Kinetic Energy 3. Sensible Heat 4. Latent Heat Law of Conservation of Energy  1. Potential Energy (PE) The work needed to raise an object of mass m (in Kg) a distance z (in metres) against the pull of gravity g (9.8 m/s2) is called potential energy (PE) PE = g x m x z E.g. 70 kg person who walks up from the beach a vertical distance of 50 m to UBC does work against gravity of ~35,000 J (or 35 kJ)  2. Kinetic Energy (KE) Kinetic Energy (KE) A moving object possesses kinetic energy: KE = 0.5∙ m∙ v2 Where m is the object’s mass, and v is its velocity A typical car of mass 1300 kg moving at a speed 50 km/h (14 m/s) has a kinetic energy of about: KE = 1.27x105 J (or 127 kJ) The 30 m diameter nickel‐iron meteor (m = 1.1 x 108 kg) that hit earth at 20 km/s (20000 m/s) to form Meteor Crater, AZ, had: KE = 2.2x1016 J  3. Sensible Heat Sensible heat –Heat energy we can sense or feel (or measure) –When we measure Temperature we are measuring sensible heat –(On an atomic level this is really particle motion)  4. Latent Heat Latent heat (a kind of potential energy) – “Hidden” heat energy in chemical bonds between atoms – Energy is “stored” as latent heat during melting or boiling (or sublimating) – Latent heat released as sensible heat (or other energy) to the surroundings when condensing or freezing (or depositing, or crystallizing) Group Discussion This graph shows how the temperature of water reacts as heat energy is put into a system (for example ice placed in a pot or kettle). Discuss what is happening both to the state of water and the energy entering the system at each of the following points A‐E. 2 minutes – in groups  4. Latent Heat Phase changes –When liquid becomes gaseous ‐ heat is taken from the surroundings –When gases becomes liquid ‐ heat is transferred/released to the surroundings https://dewwool.com/differences‐between‐evaporation‐and‐condensation/  Time Scales for Disasters Time Scales for energy to (concentrate)‐> time to release: Earthquakes: centuries/years ‐> minutes Volcanoes: centuries/decades ‐> days Hurricanes: months ‐> days Thunder Storms: hours ‐> minutes Rogue waves: hours ‐> seconds Landslides: Millennia ‐> seconds Tsunami: minutes ‐> hours Floods: hours ‐> days Impacts: N/A ‐> seconds (or less)  Disaster Scales Measuring disasters https://www.forbes.com/sites/naomirobbins/2012/01/19/when‐should‐i‐use‐logarithmic‐scales‐in‐my‐charts‐and‐ graphs/?sh=24ff09685e67 https://www.forbes.com/sites/naomirobbins/2012/01/19/when‐should‐i‐use‐logarithmic‐scales‐in‐my‐charts‐and‐ graphs/?sh=24ff09685e67  Disaster Scales “Order of Magnitude”= powers of ten. Disasters happen at many magnitudes: 10‐1=0.1 100 = 1 101 = 10 102 = 10x10 = 100 103 = 10x10x10 = 1,000 104 = 10x10x10x10 = 10,000 etc. e.g. 6 x 103 = 6x10x10x10 = 6,000  Disaster Scales Logarithmic Scale Steps by powers of 10. Use the power (to which 10 is raised) For example, instead of 1,000 use “3” (i.e. 103)... and 4 for 10,000 etc.  Order‐of‐Magnitude Scales Richter Scale (Earthquakes) Moment Magnitude Scale (Earthquakes) Volcanic Explosivity Index Beaufort Scale (Wind and Waves) Saffir‐Simpson Scale (Hurricanes) Enhanced Fujita Scale (Tornadoes) Torro Scale (Tornadoes) Torino Scale (Impacts)  Intensity vs. Frequency More intense disasters occur less frequently Energy and Frequency Image: NRCan  Natural Disasters are Rare Events Return Period (RP) RP = average number of years between disaster events of the same magnitude (M) Example Saffir‐Simpson Category 5 Hurricane time span of data RP(M) = # of cases of mag. M RP(5) = 70 years 2 cases RP(5) = 35 years Example Saffir‐Simpson Category 5 Hurricane time span of data RP(M) = # of cases of mag. M RP(5) = 70 years 2 cases RP(5) = 35 years Actual data: Since 1924 there have been 40 Category 5’s RP = 2.5 years  Upcoming Deadlines Due September 15th ‐ Complete the “Explore Your Background Part A” homework Add/drop date September 16th Due September 22nd – “Explore Your Background Part B”(read feedback and try again for a better mark – top mark from Part A/B will count) Register your iClicker in Canvas iClicker Cloud Midterm 1 September 25th in normal class time See you on Monday! Intentional arrival ‐ Aim to be on time (we know campus is large!) ‐ Sit down and say Hi – make friends and influence people ‐ Make a quick “to do” list from your previous class/day ‐ Log on to your iClicker app ‐ Send that last important text then turn your notifications off – be ready to be intentional in your learning ‐ Download pdf of notes before class, and annotate/make your own notes ‐ Ask questions! EOSC 114 Fragile Systems 3  Order‐of‐Magnitude Scales Richter Scale (Earthquakes) Moment Magnitude Scale (Earthquakes) Volcanic Explosivity Index Beaufort Scale (Wind and Waves) Saffir‐Simpson Scale (Hurricanes) Enhanced Fujita Scale (Tornadoes) Torro Scale (Tornadoes) Torino Scale (Impacts)  Intensity vs. Frequency More intense disasters occur less frequently Energy and Frequency Image: NRCan  Natural Disasters are Rare Events Return Period (RP) RP = average number of years between disaster events of the same magnitude (M) time span of data RP(M) = # of cases of mag. M Example Saffir‐Simpson Category 5 Hurricane time span of data RP(M) = # of cases of mag. M RP(5) = 70 years 2 cases RP(5) = 35 years Actual data: Since 1924 there have been 38 Category 5’s RP = 2.6 years  iClicker For SW Canada, extremely destructive earthquakes (>Mw 8) have occurred as plotted above with magenta bars. Estimate the return period (in years)? A) ~150 years B) ~300 years time span of data C) ~600 years RP(M) = D) ~2000 years # of cases of mag. M E) not enough info to answer  Learning Goals (FS3) a) Scientific communication: course framework concepts and what types of science communication you encounter during this course b) Compare and contrast risk, perception of risk, hazard, and vulnerability. c) Discuss how poor humans are at judging risk and how your perceptions skew your ability to judge risk. d) Relate natural‐disaster risk & intensity to frequency, return period, and consequences (costs). e) Describe population growth and the factors influencing the carrying capacity of Earth, and explain why this is important when considering natural disasters.  EOSC114 “framework” concepts These are the four framework concepts that are recognized in all modules throughout the course. Processes – what causes the event or how does it work? Forecasts or predictions – how, or to what extent, can any aspect (location, time, severity. etc) be anticipated using technology, observations or any other means? Consequences – how were people, communities or the environment impacted by the event? Mitigation – how can we minimize the effects, OR recover as quickly and efficiently as possible?  Notes on Homework Each module will have an article or websites and accompanying worksheet to guide you through different types of scientific writing. Thinking about what you are reading, and the types of data presented is important in evaluating the merit of the information given. We will be asking you to think about : 1) Our framework concepts 2) Purpose or intentions of the authors (who benefits?) 3) Types of article based on the sources of the work  Clicker Question? Read this statement – which of the following framework concepts applies here? The two category 5 hurricanes of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season (Irma and Maria) are compared in terms of cost in lives and damage to infrastructure. A. Processes B. Forecasts or predictions C. Consequences D. Mitigation E. None of these  Hazard vs. Risk Hazard Any event or situation that could cause human (Deaths, injuries) or economic harm (property and prosperity)  Hazard vs. Risk Vulnerability – a weakness that could be affected by a disaster (or how badly it could be affected)  Hazard vs. Risk Risk Probability that any given hazardous event might occur and the chance of a potential loss Could be simply written as: Hazard x Vulnerability = Risk  Risk Risk is usually expressed as a probability “Chance of x happening” www.xkcd.com CC license  Perception of risk A problem. Humans do not deal well with probabilities Human perception of risk is flawed!  LottoMax 7/7 numbers ‐ 1 in 28,633,528 $5 to play For even chances to win the jackpot must be: $143,167,640 But! Importantly, humans are really bad with big numbers too. Discussion Groups of 4 (ish) Estimate how many metres high a stack of 28,633,528 lottery tickets are. 1 minute  Class Discussion Estimate how many metres high a stack of 28,633,528 lottery tickets are. How thick is a ticket? Less than 1 mm, more than 0.1mm….say 0.3mm 0.3 mm x 28,633,528 = 8590058 mm = ~8.6 km www.xkcd.com CC license Photo Yorkali Walters CC License  Odds (U.S. Stats) Type #Deaths/year Risk/year Motor Vehicle 36676 1/7,700 Motor Cycle 3112 1/91,500 Train 931 1/30,600 Bicycle 695 1/410,000 Commercial Flights 138 1/2,000,000 **Data is a little old now – note that the absolute numbers are not important! www.xkcd.com CC license  Odds (U.S. Stats) Type #Deaths/ Risk/year Risk Exposure year Deaths/distance Motor Vehicle 36676 1/7,700 1.3 per 100,000,000 miles Motor Cycle 3112 1/91,500 31.3 per 100,000,000 miles Train 931 1/30,600 1.3 per 100,000,000 miles Bicycle 695 1/410,000 ? Commercial 138 1/2,000,000 1.9 per 100,000,000 Flights miles Perspective. ~2300 people die EVERY DAY from Heart Disease  Walking near cars US data for 2020, A pedestrian hit by a car every 4 mins 104,000 had minor injuries ~7,000 were killed Globally in 2023: Deaths from earthquakes 62,451 Deaths from volcanoes 23 Deaths from floods 7,617 https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/number‐of‐deaths‐from‐natural‐disasters https://www.cdc.gov/transportationsafety/pedestrian_safety/ Discussion Groups What factors can skew human perceptions of risk? 2 minutes  Risk? Big M8 Earthquake Here: What is the risk? (high medium or low)  Risk? Earthquake? Here: What is the risk? (high medium or low) Risk? Risk Reduction – United Nations Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015‐2030 AIM: The substantial reduction of disaster risk and losses in lives, livelihoods and health and in the economic, physical, social, cultural and environmental assets of persons, businesses, communities and countries. https://www.undrr.org/implementing‐sendai‐ framework/what‐sendai‐framework Population Issues Are disasters increasing? Remember, what makes a natural event a disaster…. Historical Population Growth Historically there has been exponential growth! Growth of ~1.1% per year! Population doubles every ~70 years  Population At this growth rate, 930 years from now, 529 trillion humans would cover the continents standing shoulder to shoulder. www.worldometers.info/world‐population/  Population Overpopulation –Population that exceeds the carrying capacity –What happens then? https://www.sciencealert.com/here‐s‐elon‐musk‐s‐spectacular‐plan‐to‐start‐ colonising‐mars?perpetual=yes&limitstart=1 Class Discussion Carrying Capacity Carrying Capacity The population that can be sustainably supported within a given domain (e.g., earth) Depends on: – Quantity of food, – Habitat (living space), – Natural resources (energy, water, clean air etc.) – Sanitation, – Medical care, – etc.  Population Luckily growth seems to be slowing Now “only” linear 1 billion more people every 13 years  Population Current* 2024 world population is ≈ 8,174,163,000 Growth rate will 8‐9 billion continue to decrease as earth’s carrying capacity is approached. Recent projections are 9.7 billion people By 2050. * www.worldometers.info/world‐population/ Climate Change – United Nations The Paris Agreement https://unfccc.int/process‐and‐meetings/the‐paris‐agreement/the‐ paris‐agreement Driving forces behind climate change https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015‐whats‐warming‐the‐ world/ How might this be related to population growth? In the rest of the modules we will take a brief look at how climate change may influence the frequency/intensity of our natural disasters.  Relation to Disasters? At present: With warning, people can be saved But infrastructure is destroyed In future: With more people, infrastructure becomes more important and vulnerable and people are less likely to be evacuated  Fragile System Earth – A Fragile System? Earthquakes, volcanoes, landslides, hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, tsunami, asteroid impacts … …are NOT disasters to the Earth. They are normal components of the Earth System But they are disasters to us CONCLUSIONS? The Earth is not a fragile system, but the Human population is!  The rest of the semester Earth’s history Long periods of calm punctuated by brief, localized events of shear terror. In this course, we will study that terror.  Upcoming Deadlines Register your iClicker in Canvas iClicker Cloud – will be grading from Wednesday! Due September 15th ‐ Complete the “Explore Your Background Part A” homework Add/drop date September 16th Due September 22nd – “Explore Your Background Part B”(read feedback and try again for a better mark – top mark from Part A/B will count) Midterm 1 September 25th in normal class time iClickers We know that: 1. Some of you don’t have your clickers yet. 2. Your device battery might die. 3. You might miss some classes. Don’t Panic. iClickers – answer ≥80% of all iClicker questions and you will receive full performance marks iClickers Also remember – the same clicker course is used in both morning and afternoon classes. If you need to swap for any reason (e.g. Doctors appointment) you can – we will find your data! You should have a maximum of 50% attendance! (You wont get credit for coming to two classes on one day though! ) Grading began at the start of Waves iClicker Question ‐ Practice Which one natural A) Earthquakes or disaster has most Tsunami affected you or B) Volcanoes your family? C) Landslides (Or if none has affected you, which D) Storms most worries you?) E) Meteor Impacts (Mass Extinctions) iClicker A solid iron cannon ball will sink when placed in a fluid (A) yes (B) no (C) not enough info to answer visualphotos.com  iClicker Question?? If you push hard (with a strong force) against a wall that does not move, then: (A) you’ve done infinite work (B) you’ve done zero work (C) the amount of work depends on how much time you spent pushing it (D) the work increases as gravity increases (E) depends on how high above the ground you push against the wall iClicker Question Which gains the most Potential Energy? (A) Lifting a 2 kg object vertically (B) Rolling a 2 kg object to the same height up a frictionless slope (C) They gain the same A B amount of PE (D) Not enough info to answer Clicker Question When you get out of a shower and the bathroom door is open you are cold because: A) Water from the shower was cold B) Liquid water uses heat from your body to become water vapour C) There is a breeze. (“Close the damn door!”) D) Water vapour is condensing onto your body using your heat iClicker Question A disaster of intensity 6 is how much stronger than a disaster of intensity 4? (A) 2 (B) 10 (C) 100 (D) 104 (E) 106 iClicker For SW Canada, extremely destructive earthquakes (>Mw 8) have occurred as plotted above with magenta bars. Estimate the return period (in years)? A) 155 years B) 286 years time span of data C) 572 years RP(M) = D) 2000 years # of cases of mag. M E) not enough info to answer iClicker bonus For SW Canada, extremely destructive earthquakes (>Mw 8) have occurred as plotted above with magenta bars. Predict when the next Mw8 EQ will happen? A) this year B) approx. 2065 C) approx. 2300 time span of data RP(M) = D) approx. 2600 # of cases of mag. M E) not enough info to answer Clicker Question? Read this statement – which of the following framework concepts applies here? The two category 5 hurricanes of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season (Irma and Maria) are compared in terms of cost in lives and damage to infrastructure. A. Processes B. Forecasts or predictions C. Consequences D. Mitigation E. None of these  iClicker Question You have a greater chance of dying in a car crash than winning the lottery A)True B) False C) Please don’t make me think about dying Photo: flickr user Joe Szilvagyi CC License iClicker Question You have a greater chance of dying in a plane crash than winning the lottery A)True B) False C) Please don’t make me think about dying again Photo Jason Puddephatt – CC License iClicker Question What is the most deadly animal, other than humans, in North America (i.e. kills the most people)? a) Bear b) Dog c) Moose d) Shark e) Other